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PROBLEM SET 4
Genève, 20 décembre 2022
University of Geneva
GSEM
PROBLEM SET 4
TABLE OF CONTENT
page
Probem 5 2
Probem 2 4
Probem 3 6
End 8
Problem 5
with
ln (V /F ) + rT 1 √ ln (95/65) + 0.05 × 7 1 √
d1 = √ + ×σ T = √ + × 0.37 7 ≃ 1.234656
σ T 2 0.37 7 2
√ √
d2 = d1 − σ T = 1.234656 − 0.37 7 ≃ 0.255728
N (d1 ) ≃ 0.8915207 ; N (d2 ) ≃ 0.60092
Hence
2
4. If the volatility of return on assets is reduced to 20% then the probability
of default will be
p (V < F ) = 1 − N (d2 )
with
ln (95/65) + 0.05 × 7 1 √
d2 = √ − × 0.2 × 7 ≃ 1.1140307
0.2 × 7 2
√ √
d1 = d2 + σ T ≃ 1.1140307 + 0.2 × 7 ≃ 1.64318
N (d1 ) ≃ 0.94983 ; N (d2 ) ≃ 0.867367
3
Problem 6
4
Consequently,
We observe that the value of equity is decreasing, while the value of debt is
increasing.
3. In this question, we use N (d1 ) = 0.99795.
A synergy gain ∆V that would make the merger a positive N P V for share-
holders must verify the condition : The impact of ∆V on the equity value exceeds
the variation of equity due to the reduction of the risk of assets.
In quantitative terms, this condition become
5
Problem 7
Assumptions of problem 7 :
E = 400 millions et βE = 1.2
D = Current value of the debt = 75
F = Face value of the debt = 100
r = four year risk free rate = 5.13%
Nous considérons la valeur de l’équity E comme étant celle d’un call d’échéance
4 ans sur les actifs de la firme, dont le strike est la face value F de la dette. Il en
résulte les formules suivantes:
Nous en déduisons:
ln (4.75) + 0.0513 × 4 ln (4.75) + 0.0513 × 4
d1 = + σ ; d2 = −σ
2σ 2σ
De la formule d’évaluation des capitaux propres, nous obtenons une relation
entre N (d1 ) et N (d2 ) :
Cette relation est en fait une équation non linéaire à une seule inconnue σ,
puisque d1 et d2 ne dépendent tous les deux que de la volatilité σ :
( ) ( )
ln (4.75) + 0.2052 ln (4.75) + 0.2052
475×N + σ −100×e−0.2052 ×N − σ = 400
2σ 2σ
(E)
6
La valeur de σ peut alors se calculer par approximations successives à partir
d’un chiffre positif quelconque. Nous partons par exemple d’une valeur initiale de
10% et en utilisant Pi ≃ 3.142, nous obtenons les résultats suivants:
Proxy de σ Prox de E
10% 393.526
30% 393.58
40% 394,238
50% 396.326
55% 397.993
65% 402.427
61% 400.405
59% 399.605
60% 400.044
L’équation (E) peut aussi être résolue à l’aide d’un logiciel tel que Matlab ou
mathématica. Et en utilisant une valeur plus précise de Pi, nous obtenons encore
une valeur de σ proche de 60%.
Par ailleurs, et d’après le cours, Lecture 7, slide 17, nous avons:
V V
βE = βA × × N (d1 ) ; βD = βA × × (1 − N (d1 ))
E D
D’où en particulier:
βE
βU = βA = V
E
× N (d1 )
Il nous reste à calculer N (d1 ) . Or la formule de d1 est connue:
ln (V /F ) + rT 1 √ ln (475/400) + 0.0513 × 4 1 √
d1 = √ + ×σ T = √ + ×0.60 4 ≃ 2.06945
σ T 2 0.60 4 2
βE E βE 400 1.2
βU = = = ≃ 1.03036
V
E
× N (d1 ) V N (d1 ) 475 0.980748
7
Problem 8
Assumptions of problem 8 :
V = current value of KD industries = $25
F = face value of the zero-coupon debt = 15
T = maturity of the debt = 3 years
r = continuous risk free rate = 4.5%
σ = volatility on return of assets per year = 30%
1. If βV = 1, βV being the beta of assets, then
V
βE = N (d1 ) βV
E
According to the Black and Scholes formula, we have
with
ln (25/15) + 0.045 × 3 1 √
d1 = √ + × 0.3 3 ≃ 1.5027
0.3 3 2
√ √
d2 = d1 − σ T ≃ 1.5027 − 0.3 3 ≃ 0.9831
N (d1 ) ≃ 0.933542 ; N (d2 ) ≃ 0.837221
Hence
and
25
βE = 0.93354 × ≃ 1.8873
12.36615
2. Assume that the debt issued by KD is composed of senior debt and junior
debt:
FS = face value of the senior debt = $10
FJ = face value of the junior debt = $5
F = FS + FJ = face value of the total debt = $10 + $5 = $15
8
To determine the yields of these debts, we start by calculating their values DS ,
DJ and T D = DS + DJ .
Determination of DS . We have :
ln (25/10) + 0.045 × 3 1 √
dS1 = √ + 0.3 3 ≃ 2.28302
0.3 3 2
√ √
dS2 = dS1 − σ T ≃ 2.28302 − 0.3 3 ≃ 1.7634
( ) ( )
N dS1 ≃ 0.9888 ; N dS2 ≃ 0.96108
Hence
Determination of T D. We have :
ln (25/15) + 0.045 × 3 1 √
d3 = √ + 0.3 3 ≃ 1.5027
0.3 3 2
√ √
d3 − σ T ≃ 1.5027 − 0.3( 3 ≃ 0.9831
√ )
N (d3 ) ≃ 0.933542 ; N d3 − σ T ≃ 0.837221
We deduce that
Determination of the yields. The yields of the senior and junior debt
contracts are denoted by γS , γJ , respectively :
( ) ( )
1 FJ 1 5
γJ = ln ≃ ln ≃ 0.078 ≃ 7.8%
T DJ 3 3.95675
( ) ( )
1 FS 1 10
γS = ln ≃ ln ≃ 0.0473 ≃ 4.73%
T DS 3 8.6771
9
3. Assume that βV = 1. The senior debt and the total debt being call options
on the firm assets, we can use the following formulas :
V ( ( )) 25
βS = 1 − N dS1 × βV ≃ × (1 − 0.9888) × 1 ≃ 0.03227
DS 8.6771
V 25
βT D = (1 − N (d3 )) × βV ≃ × (1 − 0.933542) × 1 ≃ 0.1315
TD 12.6338
V 25
βE = N (d3 ) × βV ≃ × 0.933542 × 1 ≃ 1.8873
E 12.3662
To compute de beta of the junior debt, we follow two equivalent methods.
Method 1 is based on the result that the beta of assets is the weighted
average of the beta of equity, the beta of senior debt and the beta of junior debt.
Consequently, the beta of the junior debt contract is the solution of the equation
E DS DJ
βV = × βE + × βS + × βJ
V V V
We obtain
V E DS
βJ = × βV − × βE − × βS
DJ DJ DJ
25 12.3662 8.6771
≃ ×1− × 1.8873 − × 0.03227
3.95675 3.95675 3.95675
≃ 0.3491 ≃ 0.35
Method 2 is based on the fact that the total debt is a portfolio composed by
the senior and junior debts. Consequently, the beta of the junior debt contract is
the solution of the equation
DS DJ
βT D = × βS + × βJ
TD TD
The resolution leads to
TD DS 12.6338 8.6771
βJ = × βT D − × βS ≃ × 0.1315 − × 0.03227
DJ DJ 3.95675 3.95675
≃ 0.3491 ≃ 0.35
10