REGIONAL CENTRE TRAINING INSTITUTE

DIPLOMA IN CARTOGRAPHY & GIS

USING GIS AND RS TO ANALYSE THE PATTERNS AND

TRENDS OF URBAN GROWTH IN NAIROBI

by

FELISTERS KAVUTHA MUTUA

4071160012

A Project report submitted in partial fulfilment for the Certificate in Diploma in Cartography and
GIS at Regional Centre Training Institute

March 2024
 Declaration
I, Felisters Mutua hereby declare that this project is my original work. To the best of my
knowledge, the work presented here has not been presented for a Diploma in any other
Institution of Higher Learning.

………………………………………… ………….…. …………………

Name of student Signature Date

This project has been submitted for examination with our approval as college supervisor(s).

………………………………………… ……….…………. …………………

Name of supervisor Signature Date

ii
 Dedication
I dedicate this research project to my beloved mum who has been supportive and has encouraged
me in conducting this project. She has never left my side throughout the process and she game
strength and hope when I thought of giving this up. I also dedicate this research paper to the
Almighty God who gives me strength, wisdom, guidance, power of thinking, security,
competence, and for giving me good health while doing this. All of these, I offer to you.
 Acknowledgement
First and foremost, I am deeply indebted to my supervisor Mr Shadrack. Finally, sincere thanks
are due to my family for their support, encouragement, and perseverance during the entire length
of my studies. God bless you all.
 ABSTRACT

Nairobi, like many African metropolises, has witnessed a dramatic surge in urban expansion in
recent decades. This rapid growth, while presenting opportunities, also poses challenges in
managing infrastructure, resources, and social services. To navigate this complex landscape,
understanding the intricate patterns and trends of Nairobi's growth is crucial. This research fills a
critical gap in our knowledge by employing GIS and remote sensing technology to map and
analyse the city's evolving urban fabric. By delving into the spatial and temporal dynamics of
this expansion, the study aims to unveil valuable insights for future urban planning strategies,
paving the way for a more sustainable and equitable Nairobi. This research leverages GIS and
remote sensing technology to analyse the intricate patterns and trends of urban growth in
Nairobi. Aiming to bridge the knowledge gap in understanding the city's dynamic expansion, the
study employs these powerful tools to map and measure the evolving urban landscape. By
analysing the data, the research uncovers key insights into how Nairobi is growing, highlighting
areas of concentrated development, sprawl patterns, and the interplay between these trends and
existing infrastructure. Ultimately, the findings aim to inform effective urban planning strategies
that promote sustainable and equitable growth for the future of Nairobi.
TABLE OF CONTENT
Declaration..................................................................................................................................................ii
Dedication...................................................................................................................................................iii
Acknowledgement......................................................................................................................................iv
Abstract.......................................................................................................................................................v
LIST OF TABLES....................................................................................................................................viii
LIST OF FIGURES....................................................................................................................................ix
ABBREVIATION.............................................................................................................................................x
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................1
1.1 Background.......................................................................................................................................1
1.2 Problem Statement.............................................................................................................................1
1.3 Objectives..........................................................................................................................................1
1.3.1 Main Objective...........................................................................................................................1
1.3.2 Specific Objectives.....................................................................................................................2
1.4 Justification for the Study..................................................................................................................2
1.5 Scope of work....................................................................................................................................2
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW.....................................................................................................4
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY...............................................................................................................7
3.1 DATA ACQUISITION.....................................................................................................................8
3.2 EXTRACTION OF NAIROBI SATELLITE IMAGE.......................................................................9
3.3 BAND PROCESSING AND LULC CLASSES................................................................................9
3.4 SUPERVISED CLASSIFICATION..................................................................................................9
3.5 ACCURACY ASSESSMENT...........................................................................................................9
3.6 LAND COVER MAPS....................................................................................................................10
CHAPTER 4: FINDINGS, DATA ANALYSIS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS........10
4.1. Research Findings summary...........................................................................................................10
4.1.1 Land use land cover 2003, 2013 and 2023................................................................................10
4.1.2 NDBI 2003...............................................................................................................................11
4.1.3 NDBI 2003...............................................................................................................................12
4.1.4 NDBI 2023...............................................................................................................................13
4.1.5 Comparison graphs...................................................................................................................14
 4.1.6 Population Changes..................................................................................................................15
4.2. Data Analysis..................................................................................................................................16
4.2.1 Accuracy Assessment...............................................................................................................16
4.3. Conclusions....................................................................................................................................19
4.4 Recommendations...........................................................................................................................20
REFERENCES......................................................................................................................................21
LIST OF TABLES
Table 3.1: landsat-8 Spectral Bands.............................................................................................................8
Table3.2: Landsat-8 Spectral Bands.............................................................................................................8
Table 4.1Accuracy Assessment 2003............................................................................................17
Table 4.2 Accuracy Assessment 2013........................................................................................................17
Table 4.3 Accuracy Assessment 2023........................................................................................................18

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 Area of study.................................................................................................................................3
Figure 4.1 LULC 2003, 2013 AND 2023......................................................................................................10
Figure 4.2 NDBI 2003.................................................................................................................................11
Figure 4.3 NDBI 2013.................................................................................................................................12
Figure 4.4 NDBI 2023.................................................................................................................................13
Figure 4.5 Built up area changes................................................................................................................14
Figure 4.6 Comparison graphs...................................................................................................................14
Figure 4.7 Population change graph..........................................................................................................15
ABBREVIATION
OLI Operational Land Imager

USGS United States Geological Survey

LULC Land Use Land Cover

ETM+ Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus

MSI Multispectral Imager

TIRS Thermal Infrared Sensor

PCA Principal Component Analysis

LDA Linear Discriminant Analysis

TM Thermal Mapper
MSS Multi-spectral Scanner
NDBI Normalised Difference Built-up Index
 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background
Urbanisation is a global phenomenon that has significant implication for cities and their
inhabitants. Nairobi, the capital city of Kenya, has experienced rapid urban growth over the past
few decades. As a result, understanding the spatial distribution of this growth and its drivers
becomes crucial for effective urban planning and sustainable development. By utilising GIS, this
study aims to analyse the changing urban landscape of Nairobi between 2003,2013 and 2023. By
identifying patterns, drivers and impacts of urbanisation, this research will provide valuable
insights for policymakers and urban planners to make informed decisions and shape the future
development of Nairobi. With the timely nature of urbanisation and the need for sustainable
urban planning, this study holds great importance in addressing the challenges and opportunities
that come with urban growth in Nairobi.

1.2 Problem Statement

Rapid urban growth in Nairobi has resulted in significant challenges to sustainable development
and resource management. This project aims to address the pressing need for comprehensive
analysis of urban growth pattern in Nairobi through the utilization of Geographic information
system and remote sensing technologies.

1.3 Objectives

1.3.1 Main Objective

To compare spatial distribution of urban growth in Nairobi between 2003, 2013 and 2023
using GIS analysis and investigate factors driving this growth and their impact on the
city’s development.
1.3.2 Specific Objectives
• To compare spatial distribution of urban growth in Nairobi between 2003, 2013 and 2023
• To analyse the population growth in the different areas as a result of urban growth
between 2003 and 2023.
• To analyse the population growth in the different areas as a result of urban growth
between 2003 and 2023

1.4 Justification for the Study

The project aims to analyse the spatial distribution of urban growth in Nairobi between the years
2003, 2013 and 2023 using GIS analysis. By comparing these time periods, Ill identify patterns
and impacts of urbanization. This research provides valuable insights for urban planners and
policy makers to develop sustainable strategies for future urban development in Nairobi.

1.5 Scope of work.

Nairobi county is located on latitude 1016’59.99” S and longitude 36049'0.01" E of the
Greenwich meridian, slightly below the equatorial belt. It is one of the 47 counties in the country
and the most-urbanised county. It is not just the nation's capital but, its city is the largest and
most populous in Kenya. On the other hand, it is one of the smallest counties in terms of
landmass covering only an area of 696 km2 and is sub-divided into 17 sub-counties. Nairobi has
over the years experienced rapid urban growth, and this growth is projected to continue at over
4% growth rate per annum which is well above the national average of approximately 3% per
year (UNDESA, 2014). The county is home to over 6.5 million residents, and the current
population density stands at about 4,850 residents per square km (World Population Review,
2019). It lies on the river Athi in the southern part of the country and has an average elevation of
1795m above sea level. Nairobi County can be described as a warm and temperate climate with a
dry season in July – September and two rainy periods, April – May and November. The average
rainfall is 869 mm, and the temperature is 19.0 0C. Figure 1 below shows a map of the study
area.
Figure 1 Area of study
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW

Nairobi is Kenya’s principal economic and cultural centre and one of the largest and fastest
growing cities in Africa (2005). For the last 30 years, the city of Nairobi has experienced rapid
growth in terms of population and spatial extent compared to other major cities in the region
(Stren et al. 2022). Despite the lack of basic amenities and infrastructures, Nairobi metropolis
still attracts population from rural areas. As a consequence, urban population is increasing at a
much faster rate, contributing to augmentation of existing problems. The population has
increased from2,481,000 people in 2003 to the current population of 5 million. The process of
urbanization has been characterized not only by population growth, but also by industrial
expansion, increasing economic and social activities and intensified use of land resources. The
estimated annual rate of growth of urban population in Kenya was 7.1% for the period 2017–
2023; the average for African cities was 4.4% and for the world 2.6% (2017). This rate of
urbanization has overstretched the capacity of infrastructure and services to the extent that large
sections of the population live in slums in the peripheral urban areas (Hirst and Lamba 2008).
Consequently, the need to have a comprehensive plan to direct Nairobi’s growth and
development emerged as a result of a number of serious problems affecting the city. These
problems included massive influxes of migrants, lagging infrastructure development,
environmental degradation, and uncontrolled growth and spreading of the deteriorating slum
areas (Mbugua and Nganga 2009, Karuga 2016). Deliberate planning has been lacking and urban
growth has led the city to expand outward at the expense of other land uses. Before the Nairobi
metropolitan growth strategy report (Nairobi Urban Study Group (NUSG) 2010), the only basic
land use planning and development framework was the 1948 master plan. Since then, planning
has been done on an ad hoc basis with study groups dealing with specific aspects of city growth
(2016). The ad hoc land use planning has paid very little consideration to environmental impact
or physical constraints, which has given rise to urban sprawl and resulted in physical, socio-
economic and environmental problems (Bubba and Lamba 2015). Planning problems in Nairobi
include inappropriate land uses due to ignorance or misconception about physical environment
(Lamba 2018), environmental changes due to land use changes and poor availability of spatial
information necessary for urban planning. In particular, spatial information on which planning is
based, is in the form of unscaled sketches while maps are in different scales making sharing of
information among various sectors of the city a problem. The available data and the way they are
managed have led to the impossibility of assessing the current situation and have excluded any
possibility of effective planning for the future. At the same time, various laws and local
government regulations meant to control and regulate urban development have not been adhered
to. The consequences are that urban planning for Nairobi city has not worked and is leading to
unsuitable land uses, depletion of natural resources, urban sprawl, collapse of public services and
other negative environmental and social effects. Regular and up-to-date information on urban
change is required for urban planning, land use management and for appropriate allocation of
services and infrastructure within the urban areas (Barnsley and Barr 1996). In this context,
accurate information on the current extent of urban areas is needed for documenting growth,
making policy decisions and improving land use planning (Jacobson 2017), and is a required
parameter for predictive urban modelling (Epstein et al. 2014). Dynamic spatial models, and in
particular cellular automata (CA) modelling, which incorporates data on urban land uses, are
becoming useful tools for predictive modelling of urban spatial dynamics (White and Engelen
2007, Batty et al. 2011). Predictive modelling for Nairobi city would make it possible to assess
the future consequences of current urban growth trends. Monitoring urban changes leads to
forecast of the amount of changes and the location of future built-up areas, which is extremely
valuable to urban planners who can use this information to monitor the impact of urban growth
and also to evaluate and modify existing urban policies and develop appropriate responses or
strategies. Efforts are being made by Nairobi’s city planning department for an integrated urban
planning strategy. Such an integrated strategy has to recognize, anticipate, measure and
understand urban land use dynamics and their consequences. Such a strategy and the necessary
predictive modelling for estimating future impacts of existing spatial plans and policies requires
immediate, accurate and up-to-date information on land uses and an understanding of drivers of
the land use/cover changes. In this context, the aim of this study is to analyse land use/cover
changes and the dynamics of urban expansion of Nairobi city. Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus
(ETM +) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) data acquired in 2003, 2013 and 2023 were used.
Post-classification comparison strategy was employed to identify land use/ cover changes and
areas of the urban encroachment. Topographic, soils, and geologic data at various scales,
together with socio-economic data, were used for the qualitative analyses of the factors that are
thought to influence the urban expansion. Kenya’s youth population (75% of the total population
according to the 2019 KNBS Population Census) is an example of the nation’s untapped
resources that could be used as a strategy to boost urban sustainability. As the urbanization rates
continue to increase, so do the urbanization challenges that hinder urban sustainability in cities.
Kenya’s cities could Act Local to Go Global by embracing more local actions and strategies to
promote sustainability, while addressing these challenges. This will also create more
opportunities for innovations, uptake of emerging technologies and trends, inclusion, equity, and
equality among urban residents. (
By Brian Nyaware, Policy Analyst Infrastructure and Economic Services Department 2021)
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY
Figure 2
3.1 DATA ACQUISITION
Landsat-7 and Landsat 8 (p168, r61) images were used in the study both obtained from the
USGS. http://glovis.usgs.gov/

Table 3.1: landsat-8 Spectral Bands

Landsat 7 Wavelength (mm) Revolution (meters)

Band 1 – Blue 0.45-0.52 30

Band2 – Green 0.52-0.60 30

Band 3 – Red 0.63 – 0.69 30

Band 4 – Near Infrared (NIR) 0.77 - 0.90 30

Band 5 – Shortwave Infrared 1.55 – 1.75 30

(SWIR) 1

Band 6 – Thermal 10.40 – 12.50 60 (resampled to 30)

Band 7 – Shortwave Infrared 2.09 – 2.35 30

(SWIR) 2

Band 8 - Panchromatic .52 - .90 15

Table3.1: Landsat-8 Spectral Bands
Band Number Description Wavelength Resolution

Band 1 Coastal / Aerosol 0.433 to 0.453 µm 30 meter

Band 2 Visible blue 0.450 to 0.515 µm 30 meter

Band 3 Visible green 0.525 to 0.600 µm 30 meter

Band 4 Visible red 0.630 to 0.680 µm 30 meter

Band 5 Near-infrared 0.845 to 0.885 µm 30 meter

Band 6 Short wavelength infrared 1.56 to 1.66 µm 30 meter

Band 7 Short wavelength infrared 2.10 to 2.30 µm 30 meter

Band 8 Panchromatic 0.50 to 0.68 µm 15 meter

Band 9 Cirrus 1.36 to 1.39 µm 30 meter

Band 10 Long wavelength infrared 10.3 to 11.3 µm 100 meter

Band 11 Long wavelength infrared 11.5 to 12.5 µm 100 meter

Over 40 years, Landsat has provided one of the most valuable datasets for mapping and
monitoring the earth surface (Kennedy et al…2014; Zhu et al…2015).

Landsat-8, a NASA and USGS collaboration acquires global moderate resolution measurements
of the earth’s surface in the visible, near infrared, short wave and thermal infrared.

Landsat-8 has increased capabilities such as new spectral bands in the blue part and cirrus cloud
detection portion of the spectrum, two new thermal bands, improved sensor signal–to-noise
performance and several developments in radiometric resolution and the duty cycle that allows a
significant increase in collection of a number of images per day (Roy et al..2014).

Landsat -8 satellite, launched on 11.02.2013, has a total of 11 spectral bands via the Operational
Land Imager(OLI) sensor with a temporal resolution of 16 days,8-bit unsigned radiometric
resolution and a spatial resolution ranging from 15m-120m

3.2 EXTRACTION OF NAIROBI SATELLITE IMAGE

This is done by extraction Nairobi County from the satellite image using its shape file for the
three years.
3.3 BAND PROCESSING AND LULC CLASSES

Band processing involves analyzing multi-spectral data from satellites. It allows one to extract
valuable information about the earth surface, which is used in various fields like environmental
monitoring, agriculture, urban planning.

3.4 SUPERVISED CLASSIFICATION

Classification of the three satellite images is performed using ArcGIS.

3.5 ACCURACY ASSESSMENT

After acquiring the three land cover maps for the three years is done.

3.6 LAND COVER MAPS

The three land cover maps will then be acquired and analysis of urban growth pattern is shown.
 CHAPTER 4: FINDINGS, DATA ANALYSIS, CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS

4.1. Research Findings summary

4.1.1 Land use land cover 2003, 2013 and 2023

Both Landsat 7 and Landsat -8 and were classified using SVM and MLC to create land cover/use
map of the study area. In total, four classifications were performed and four land cover classes
were created namely built up, forest, water and vegetation as shown in figure.

Figure 4.1 LULC 2003, 2013 AND 2023

4.1.2 NDBI 2003
The NDBI in remote sensing index commonly used to identify built-up areas in satellite imagery.
It is calculated using the following formula:
NDBI= (Band 6-Band 5)/ (Band 6+ band 5) for Landsat 7
The NDVI ranges from -1 to 1, with higher values indicating a higher likelihood of build-up
areas.

Figure 4.2 NDBI 2003

4.1.3 NDBI 2003
Areas with high NDBI values are likely to contain build-up structures and urban development.
The higher NDBI values, the more significant the build-up presence. Temporal factors such as
seasonal changes or natural events may influence the NDBI values.
NDBI= (Band 7-Band 5)/(Band 7+Band 5)

Figure 4.3 NDBI 2013

4.1.4 NDBI 2023
NDBI= (Band 7-Band 5)/(Band 7+Band 5)

Figure 4.4 NDBI 2023

4.1.5 Comparison graphs
The graph shows how built up areas have increased in the three years

Figure 4.5 Built up area changes

The graph shows how Urban grown in the three time periods.

Figure 4.6 Comparison graphs

4.1.6 Population Changes

Figure 4.7 Population change graph

Population increase significantly influences urban planning by creating demands for housing,
infrastructure, and services. Urban planners must allocate land for residential, commercial, and
industrial purposes, accommodating the evolving needs of a growing population. The
development of transportation systems, schools, healthcare facilities, and other social
infrastructure becomes crucial to support the increased demand. Economic growth and job
opportunities are key considerations, requiring planners to attract businesses and strategically
plan commercial zones. The density and form of urban areas need careful management to
balance efficient land use with considerations for liability and environmental sustainability.
Throughout this process, community engagement is essential to ensure that planning decisions
align with the needs and preferences of the residents. Ultimately, urban planning in the face of
population growth aims to create resilient, sustainable, and liveable cities for present and future
generations.
4.2. Data Analysis

4.2.1 Accuracy Assessment

For determination of the accuracy of each classification and class, thematic accuracy was
performed. For this purpose, a reference dataset comprising of randomly generated points was
created. These points were selected over different locations representing different land cover/use
classes with the help of Google earth. Same reference data was used for the accuracy assessment
of Landsat-7 and Landsat-8 images and different classification algorithms.

Error matrix of each classification was created, an overall, user’s and producer’s accuracy values
of each class were analysed for the evaluation of classification accuracies.

Overall accuracy represents the portion of correctly classified pixels in a thematic map with
respect to ground reference data used for verification. It responds to the sum of diagonal cells in
error matrix divided by the total number of pixels checked

User accuracy refers to the probability that a certain reference class has indeed actually been
labelled as that class.

Producer accuracy is the probability that a sampled pixel on the map is indeed that particular
class on the ground.

Error of commission (type II error/false negative) refers to incorrectly classified pixels which
corresponds to the rows in the error matrix. It is the corollary of the user accuracy.

Error of omission (type I /false positive) refers to those sample pixels that are omitted in the
interpretation of results. It is the corollary of producer accuracy.

Kappa statistic which estimates the coefficient of agreement k by taking into account omission
and commission errors in addition to the values of the main diagonal in the confusion matrix.
 Table 4.1Accuracy Assessment 2003
2003 BUILT UP FOREST WATER VEGETATIO TOTA USER
AREAS N L ACCURAC
Y

BUILT UP 725 31 24 18 798 90.85%

FOREST 22 712 45 17 796 89.45%

WATER BODY 19 47 723 4 793 91.17%

VEGETATION 13 3 8 730 754 96.82%

TOTAL 779 793 800 769

PRODUCER 93.07% 89.79% 90.38% 94.93%

ACCURACY

TOTAL 92.01%
ACCURACY

KAPPA 0.893

Table 4.2 Accuracy Assessment 2013

2013 BUILT FOREST WATER VEGETATIO TOTA USER
UP N L ACCURACY
AREAS

BUILT UP 738 10 30 22 800 92.25%

FOREST 7 720 10 2 739 97.43%

WATER 19 36 740 5 800 92.50%

BODY

VEGETATIO 26 0 8 746 780 95.64%

N

TOTAL 790 766 788 775

PRODUCER 93.42% 94.00% 93.91% 96.26%

ACCURACY

TOTAL 94.39%
ACCURACY
 KAPPA 0.925

Table 4.3 Accuracy Assessment 2023

2023 BUILT UP FORERST WATER VEGETATIO TOTAL USER
AREAS BODY N ACCURACY

BUILT UP 763 15 7 5 790 96.58%

FOREST 12 746 13 13 784 95.15%

WATER BODY 6 9 749 4 768 97.53%

VEGETATION 3 4 16 760 783 97.06%

TOTAL 784 774 785 782

PRODUCER 97.32% 96.38% 95.41% 97.19%

ACCURACY

TOTAL 96.58%
ACCURACY

KAPPA 0.954
4.3. Conclusions
Through GIS analysis, I was able to examine the distribution of urban growth in Nairobi between
2003 and 2023. The findings revealed significant areas of densification and expansion,
highlighting the dynamic nature of the city. Additionally, by analyzing population data, I gained
insight into the growth patterns within different neighborhoods. This project has provided
valuable information for urban planning and decision making, emphasizing the importance of
understanding urban growth trends.
The research was able to apply different algorithms on the working data thus resulting into a
successful study. The data used was on the basis of clarity and cleanliness of the images which
was greatly influenced by the time periods
4.4 Recommendations

Remote sensing techniques were used in the processing and evaluation of accuracy levels of the
two optical satellite images of Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 images implemented through support
GIS software and maximum likelihood classifier algorithms for which unique results were
realized.

The remote sensing experts should be able to carry out a pre-study analysis to find out which
satellite data and algorithm best suites the needs of the project at hand.

The availability and affordability of high resolution satellite images supplemented with field
surveys would be advantageous as it will assure more accurate outputs for a variety of
applications.

Other algorithms should be tested against the worked two to avoid restriction and confinement to
one particular algorithm. Efforts should also be put in place to come up with other parametric
and non-parametric algorithms to compare with those in existence.
REFERENCES

1. “Nairobi County”. Infotrak. Retrieved 8 November 2022.

2. Kuffer, M., & Barrosb, J. (2011). Urban morphology of unplanned settlements: The use
of spatial metrics in VHR remotely sensed images. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 7,
152– 157.
3. Nairobi City County (2014). The project on integrated urban development master plan for
the City of Nairobi in the Republic of Kenya. Nairobi City County, Nairobi
4. Nairobi City County (2014). The project on integrated urban development master plan for
the City of Nairobi in the Republic of Kenya. Nairobi City County, Nairobi
5. Nairobi City County (2014). The project on integrated urban development master plan for
the City of Nairobi in the Republic of Kenya. Nairobi City County, Nairobi
6. Nairobi, Kenya Metro Area Population 1950-2024- Macro trends
7. Cirolia, L. R., & Berrisford, S. (2017). ‘Negotiated planning’: Diverse trajectories of
implementation in Nairobi, Addis Ababa, and Harare. Habitat International.