Renewable Energy 207 (2023) 672–686

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Renewable Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene

Transition toward net zero emissions - Integration and optimization of

renewable energy sources: Solar, hydro, and biomass with the local grid
station in central Italy
Eid Gul a, *, Giorgio Baldinelli b, Pietro Bartocci c, Tariq Shamim d, Piergiovanni Domenighini b,
Franco Cotana a, b, Jinwen Wang e, Francesco Fantozzi a, b, Francesco Bianchi f
a
Biomass Research Center, University of Perugia, Via G. Duranti n.67, 06125, Perugia, Italy
b
Department of Engineering, University of Perugia, Via G. Duranti n.67, 06125, Perugia, Italy
c
Instituto de Carboquímica (ICB-CSIC), Miguel Luesma Castán 4, 50018, Zaragoza, Spain
d
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, Illinois, 60115, USA
e
School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, China
f
Department of Physics and Geology, University of Perugia, Via A. Pascoli, 06123 Perugia PG, 06125, Perugia, Italy

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Clean energy technologies are playing a vital role in energy transition, realization of Net-Zero emission goals, and
Renewable energy sources satisfying increasing energy demands. The objective of this work is to investigate the potentials of renewable
Hybrid energy system energy sources and propose a state-of-the-art new grid connected energy system model, which increases the
Solar
penetration of renewable energies in the medium-size Municipality of Perugia, Central Italy. The presented
Hydro
Biomass
energy system model integrates and optimises renewable energy sources mainly consisting of hydro, solar, and
Economic and environmental analysis biomass, by implementing new dispatch strategies and advanced mathematical model. The developed model
maximises the power generation of each source based on the least Net Present Cost and the lowest Levelized Cost
of Energy and balances the fluctuating load demand by using combined dispatch strategies. Furthermore,
demand-side load management strategies are implemented for efficient energy management. An economic and
environmental analysis has been performed to evaluate the impact of the proposed system. The results show that
a significant amount of clean energy (33.2 GWh/year) is produced at the lowest Levelized Cost of Energy of
0.067 €/kWh. Moreover, up to 78% of the energy demand of the selected community is covered by renewable
energies, which evades 13,452 tons of CO2 emission yearly.

hydro, solar, wind, biomass, geothermal and marine energy show

1. Introduction
The growing energy demand and the excessive utilization of fossil
fuels emitting toxic greenhouse gases are the dominant cause of the
climate change and of the increase of the global temperature (global
warming). The COP-26 meeting, held in Glasgow in November 2021,
proposed a joint agenda named Glasgow Climate Pact, aimed at limiting
the CO2 emissions and keeping the global temperature increase within
1.5 ◦ C [1]. The IPCC’s Assessment Report 2021 described the current
state of the climate, the human role and influence in warming the
climate and growing of CO2 emissions [2]. The COVID-19 pandemic has
significantly influenced the global economy, bringing to a reduction in
primary energy demand worldwide, with the consequent 5.8% fall in
global power sector emissions [3]. Renewable energy sources such as
enough potential to meet the growing energy demand and can play a
significant role in the reduction of CO2 emissions [4,5]. According to the
2021 report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the renewable
energies installed power raised worldwide by 45% (280 GW) in 2020
[6]. The document presents an energy sector roadmap for energy tran­
sition, and proposes different scenarios from 2020, 2030, 2040, and
2050 to reach net zero-emissions, highlighting the importance of
renewable energy sources [6,7]. The Italian National Energy and
Climate Policy (NECP) presented numerous ambitious energy transition
policies and strategies to achieve the 2050 net-zero CO2 emission goals,
such as financing the renewable sector, narrowing the energy prices
gaps, and phasing out the coal energy [8].
Conventional energy systems pose various challenges to the optimal
integration and scheduling of renewable energy sources (RES) and

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: eid.gul@crbnet.it (E. Gul).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.03.051
Received 12 March 2022; Received in revised form 21 February 2023; Accepted 9 March 2023
Available online 13 March 2023
0960-1481/© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
E. Gul et al. Renewable Energy 207 (2023) 672–686

Nomenclature Epv rated output power

EBG biogas production from feedstock
Abbreviations Et electricity output of the system in year t
AC Alternate Current Fdis discount factor
CAPEX CAPital EXpenditure of the project Hrload hourly load fraction
DC Direct Current n lifetime of the developed system
DNI Direct Normal Irradiance OPreserves operating reserves
DHI Diffused Horizontal Irradiance MVS massflow ratio of volatile solid
ENEL Ente Nazionale per l’energia Elettrica PBG power produced by biogas plant
GHG Greenhouse Gas Ptmax maximum power at time t
GHI Global Horizontal Irradiance PH power produced by hydro
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change PS power produced by solar PV system
LCA Life Cycle Assessment PB power produced by biogas plant
LCOE Levelized Cost Of Energy PtD power demand at time t
NPC Net Present Cost Ptgrid power supplied from grid
O&M Operational and maintenance cost Ptsystem power produced by the system at time t
RES Renewable Energy Sources PtLoad power supplied to load at time t
STC Standard Test Conditions PHrload peak Hour load fraction
TERNA Italian electricity transmission company Qtmax guaranteed rated output power at time t
Rm actual radiation intensity (W/m2)
Notations Rstc radiation intensity under standard test conditions
αp temperature power coefficient REfraction renewable energy fraction
ƞsystem overall efficiency of biomass system Tc real temperature of the solar cell
CO&M operational and maintenance cost the project Tstc temperature at standard test conditions (25 ◦ C)
Ccapital total capital cost of the project VSD flowrate of volatile solid digestor
Ct future costs at each time t YBG yield of biogas
CVBG calorific value of biogas YPBG potential yield of biogas
CPshortage capacity shortage

efficient demand side energy management. The variable and uncertain
nature of RES, especially wind and solar energy, makes the integration
and maximization of the power generation more difficult [9]. With the
purpose of solving the integration issue in hybrid energy systems,
numerous studies have been implemented. A mixed-integer non-linear
model which integrates RES and introduces a simple optimization model
for the hybrid system is presented in Ref. [10]. Toopshekan et al. [11]
performed an economic and performance analysis of a hybrid system
consisting of PV, wind, diesel generator, and battery system for a single
house, and developed a dispatch strategy for a 24-h short term. A
feasibility study and analytical techniques for modeling a small-scale
energy system for Popova Island and integration of solar and wind en­
ergy with diesel generators and 1 kWh battery is presented in Ref. [12].
The optimal planning and scheduling of hybrid wind-PV model is pre­
sented in Ref. [13], where different scenarios are proposed to combine
generators and meet the load demand. Integration and optimization of
RES with local grid station can increase the penetration and utilization
of RES, as well as reduce the GHG emission and the cost of energy. Kim
et al. [14] proposed an optimization model for the RES energy man­
agement and performed a comparative analysis for the on-grid and
off-grid using the software Homer [15]. The results showed that the
on-grid hybrid system can accommodate a higher amount of energy, and
efficiently manage the load demand. The new power system models can
reliably integrate intermittent sources and demonstrate high flexibility
and sustainability. Moreover, they effectively manage the connected
load centers and simultaneously increase the renewable energy utiliza­
tion at the lowest LCOE [16]. Energy storage technologies are playing a
significant role to improve the flexibility and reliability of grid stations.
Energy storage systems integrated with the grid such as hydrogen en­
ergy, lithium-ion batteries, hydroelectric pump storage and
thermo-chemical storage systems can accumulate the curtailed renew­
able energy and supply back the power, especially during high demand
time [17].
Demand side load management techniques such as flexible load,
peak clipping, valley filling, and load shifting constitute important
contributions to the efficient energy management and increase the
economic and environmental benefits [18]. Load management methods
are highly effective for renewable energy management, especially for
wind and solar energy because of their variable nature. However, hydro
and biogas plants can be used to supply the baseload or/and the peak
load, as they are robust and easily manageable compared to solar and
wind sources [19,20]. Kang. et al. [21] presented a cascaded reservoir
network model for short-term scheduling of hydrothermal by using a
two-stage linear programming model. The authors implemented optimal
scheduling of reservoirs for short-term and long-term intervals for seven
cascaded reservoirs. In our previous work [22], a short-term hydro­
thermal operation of 4 cascaded reservoirs was presented, with the
implementation of the optimal scheduling of reservoirs. The imple­
mentation of effective water resources management techniques in­
creases the hydroelectric power generation. Biomass is a key source for
energy production, as it is largely available from animals and plants.
Different kinds of feedstock are available, ranging from waste food to
agricultural residues and animal manures such as: maize crops, silage
grass, olive pomace, agricultural waste, animal manures and municipal
waste for energy production [23,24]. Evans et al. [25] presented a
comprehensive research on the sustainability of electricity production
from biomass, illustrating the types of feedstocks and different tech­
nologies for power generation. Lauer et al. [26] showed an economic
evaluation of a biogas plant used for electricity production, and they
performed an assessment of different types of biogas plants for a period
of 20 years, from 2016 to 2035, where they determined the biogas
extension path, modes of operation, and economic analysis. An opti­
mization model for the waste food collection and biogas production
from the waste food is reported in Ref. [27] The authors also presented
an LCA analysis of biogas production from the waste food. At the aim of
performing a comparative analysis of the proposed research work with
the recently published articles, Table 1 presents the latest discoveries
and advancements in renewable energy systems in different regions.

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Table 1 Table 1 (continued )

Literature review of hybrid energy system models. Authors/ Location/ Developed system/ Findings
Authors/ Location/ Developed system/ Findings Reference Software operating strategies
Reference Software operating strategies
Gbadamosi Nigeria/Homer Renewable energy • cost of energy 0.57
Hori et al. Shiga Japan Local energy system • 25% decrease in et al. [38] Pro model for €/kWh
[28] REROUTE tool and renewable energy demand by educational • Annual energy
energy mix 2040 institute production 722
optimization • 18.6% Renewable MWh
energy sufficiency Toselli et al. Ghana/System Solar PV system • cost of energy 0.88
ratio [39] advisor model model with and €/kWh and 0.98
• 26.6% CO2 without energy €/kWh
reduction storage system • Annual energy
Hansen et al. Germany Energy Smart energy • 100% renewable production 43 GWh
[29] PLAN system concept; energy scenarios
2050 reference • Renewable energy
model development 580 TWh/year in Furthermore, the literature survey presented in Table 1 shows the cost of
2050 energy, net present cost, as well as the methods implemented for various
• 25% reduction in
renewable energy systems for different regions [28–39].
annual electricity
cost Traditional energy systems are facing numerous challenges including
Seck et al. Reunion Island Kinetic reserve • 80% Renewable system stability, flexibility, lower renewable energy fraction, higher
[30] France/TIMES- energy system energy penetration energy cost, as well as integration challenges due to the variable nature
FR optimization model in 2050 of renewable resources. However, to the best of the authors knowledge,
(ESOM) • 7.6 GW Renewable
energy growth/year
very few research studies [11–14] have focused on medium-scale grid
for the 2050 connected renewable energy system to address the energy, economy,
scenario and environmental problems of distributed communities, especially in
• 5% of total load- urban areas. In order to fill this research gap, this study is dedicated to
shifting in demand
overcoming these challenges, and presents an advanced grid connected
response
Ullah et al. China Homer Optimal planning of • 13 M$ LCA cost of renewable energy system model and new load management techniques
[31] Pro RES and integrated the developed to fulfill the energy demand of distributed community in the urban area.
decision-making system The advanced hybrid energy system model firstly investigates the po­
approach • CO2 emission tential of renewable energy sources; secondly, it integrates and opti­
29,178 kg/year
• LCOE 0.088 €/kWh
mises mainly solar, hydro, and biogas plants to maximize the total
Alberizzi Tyrol Italy Optimization • 57% cost reduction power generation, supplying the guaranteed active power to balance the
et al. [32] Matlab algorithm (MILP), of the system load demand of the municipality of Perugia, a medium-size town in the
Optimal sizing of • NPC at 50% load Central Italy. Furthermore, the proposed model foresees the connection
RES demand is 95,863
with the local grid station for energy sharing. A new demand-side load
euros
• NPC of fuel rises management strategy (shiftable and non-shiftable load) is implemented,
from 2.8 e/l to 3 e/l. and the community load is classified in residential and commercial
Stevanato Toconao Italy Short-term small- • 59% reduction in sectors. Section 2 presents the renewable energy sources potential in
et al. [33] MicroGridsPy scale multi-energy LCOE 0.090 €/kWh Perugia: a map of the city is presented to describe the potential and
Python system model • 93.7% electricity
share of Renewable
locations where the most significant renewable energy sources are
energy available. Section 3 shows the methodology, model formulations,
• Net Present Cost of objective functions, dispatch strategies and different models and equa­
system 4.09 US$ tions for hydro, solar, and biomass. Section 4 shows the economic
Fodhil et al. Saharan regions Autonomous hybrid • 0.37 €//kWh LCOE
analysis of the developed model and its environmental impacts by
[34] Algeria Homer/ energy system for • 93% Renewable
MATLAB rural electrification energy fraction calculating the CO2 emissions. Section 5 presents the results and section
• CO2 emission 2094 6 describes the conclusions, including a comparative analysis of the
kg/year system with respect to other proposals. The significance and contribu­
Tomin et al. Transbaikal Community energy • Off-grid microgrids tions of this work may be summarized as follows: (a) new grid-connected
[35] Russia MATLAB/ management for small localities
Homer system and Monte- • Reduction in LCOE
hybrid energy system model; (b) demand side load management stra­
Carlo tree search from 20% to 40% tegies for classified load centers; (c) economic and environmental
algorithm • Energy management analysis of renewable energy systems; (d) contribution to the reduction
strategies for three of CO2 emissions.
selected aera
Monakhovo, Katun,
Kurbulik 2. RES potential in the municipality of Perugia
Gil et al. Cambridge Energy system • 31% reduction in
[36] Milton Keynes, model for housing grid energy demand Perugia is located in the central part of Italy; its estimated population
Oxford UK developments by 19.47 MWh/day is 168,000 residents and its land area is 450 km2. Perugia is known as the
electricity export to
green heart of Italy, because of its wide green landscape and abundance
the grid
• £1142/year of natural resources such as rivers, forests, mountains, and agricultural
electricity bill land; therefore, a significant potential is available to produce renewable
saving energy from hydro, solar, wind, and biomass. This section presents the
Toselli et al. Germany/ Hybrid energy • cost of energy 0.15
energy demand of different sectors, the current state of RES, and their
[37] ASPEN system €/kWh and 0.16
€/kWh growth from 2016 to 2020, beyond a description of the sites where the
• Annual electricity renewable potential is available. The purpose of this analysis consists of
generation 4.3 MW verifying the current state of RES exploitation and estimating the total
RES potential, in line with the Italian National Renewable Energy Action

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Plan 2020 [40]. Baldinelli et al. [41] realised the energy and environ­ Table 2
ment plan for the Municipality of Perugia, which represented the core of Annual Electricity load demand of Municipality of Perugia from 2016 to 2020
the EU LIFE + Project MuSAE to developed strategies for the growth of [48].
RES, energy savings, and information sharing between the Municipal­ Year Industrial Agriculture Domestic Total Load
ities and in the Umbria region. This research work is carried out in the (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh)
city of Perugia to evaluate the feasibility of renewable energy systems 2016 657 21 227 905
for medium size cities. The second reason is the geographical location: 2017 651 23 231 906
moderate climate conditions and reasonable availability of natural re­ 2018 685 23 230 938
2019 708 23 231 962
sources, used to investigate the impact of renewable energy sources.
2020 659 34 234 928
Furthermore, this research is conducted under the scheme of the Euro­
pean Commission Green City Accord [42] and Green City Initiative [43]
as the city of Perugia is the part of EU-Green city accord. This accord is 2016 to 2020, while Table 3 reports the annual energy generation from
the movement of European mayors committed to safeguard the natural the RES, divided by sources, for the same period.
environment and accelerate the energy transition within the cities and
small communities. 3. Methodology
As far as the Perugia hydropower potential, two hydroelectric plants
are currently operational in Ponte San Giovanni and Ponte Felcino dis­ This section presents a methodology to achieve the set objectives of
tricts. with an installed capacity of 4 MW; another potential site for the this research. The developed energy system model integrates and opti­
hydropower plant is located in the Pretola suburb over the river Tevere, mises the power produced by the solar, biomass, and hydroelectric units.
and it is estimated that an installed capacity of 630 kW hydroelectric The Homer Pro software implements combined dispatch strategies Load
plant can be built, which would annually produce 1333 MWh/year of Following and Cycle Charging, to optimally combine and schedule the
electricity. Besides, it is also possible to install mini and micro-plants integrated energy sources. Meanwhile, Homer micro-grid balances the
alongside the same river [44,45]. Biomass has enormous potential in power generation with the load demand to meet the residential and
the municipal territory: the current biogas cogeneration plants installed commercial requirements of the selected area. The developed model is
capacity is 7.0 MW for electricity and 10.3 MW of thermal energy. The interconnected with the local grid station for energy trading, and, during
annual growth potential of bioenergy is estimated as 1.6 MW electric the high load periods, the required energy is purchased from the grid
and 3.3 MW thermal, with the energy production of about 10,000 MWh station, while the excess energy is sold to the grid station, with a flat-rate
and 32,450 MWh [44,45] respectively. The territory shows also a wide tariff. For effective load management at demand side, the total load is
potential for solar energy, as it relies on around 2100 sunny hours considered as shiftable and non-shiftable load. The test and validation of
annually [46], with a daily average solar radiation of 3.2 kWh/m2, and a the developed model results are executed by using a simulation and
clearance index of 0.5. The current installed capacity of solar PV plants optimization software Homer Pro, developed by the National Renewable
is 61.4 MW, and it produce around 87,000 MWh/year. with an annual
growth potential estimated as 750 MWh/year [44,45]. Within the
municipal territory a significant potential of wind energy is available. Table 3
However, in this study the wind energy is not included because the delay Electricity production by the RES in the municipality of Perugia from 2016 to
in the legislative processes, the proposal of the development of wind 2020 [44].
farm is still pending. Year Bioenergy (GWh) Solar PV (GWh) Hydro (GWh) Total (GWh)
Fig. 1 indicates the sites where RES can be produced by using Solar
2016 61 73 31 165
and hydro resources in the municipality of Perugia. 2017 62 78 31 171
The total installed capacity of RES in the municipality is 72.4 MW, 2018 59 83 31 173
and 21.5% of the load demand is supplied by RES. In Table 2, the annual 2019 59 85 31 175
electricity consumption of Perugia is reported, divided by sectors, from 2020 60 87 32 179

Fig. 1. Locations of renewable resources potential in the municipality of Perugia [47].

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Energy Laboratory (NREL) USA [15]. A flowchart of the model is pre­ biogas engines and hydroelectric units stepwise. However, if the load
sented in Fig. 2, which describes the multiple stages of the research work demand increases the system turns on each biogas engine and hydro­
conducted. The flowchart indicates the four different stages of the electric unit to maximize its power generation to meet the load demand.
developed system. At stage 1, the required data for the calculations are Moreover, if the developed system operates at its maximum capacity but
collected from the Italian National Electricity Distribution Company the load demand is still above the produced power, system export energy
(TERNA), Ente Nazionale per l’Energia Elettrica (ENEL), and Italian from local grid station to meet the load demand.
green energy company (Italgen Italy) websites [48–50]. The power
generation data for the hydro, solar and biogas were obtained from the 3.1.1. Objective function A
Italian energy company Gestore dei Servizi Energetici [44]. Further­ Maximization of the total power generation and guaranteed rated
more, at stage 1, the annual electricity generation data of hydroelectric output power of the Homer micro-grid
stations, solar PV systems, and biogas plants, is used for the system
∑
M
modeling. Moreover, the capital expenditure (CAPEX) values such as Ptmax = PHm + PSm + PBm (1)
replacement cost, operational and maintenance cost and cost of fuels are m=1
also used to model the system. In stage 2, mathematical techniques are ( )
developed to maximize the power generation, and operational strategies # PHm + PSm + PBm ≥ PHSB
micogrid
are implemented for the optimal scheduling and operation of hydro­ Qtmax = (2)
M
power, PV system, and biogas units. In stage 3, the collected data and the
developed strategies are fed into the optimization software to perform In eq. (1), Ptmax represents the sum of output power of all components
the optimization process. At stage 4 the obtained results are elaborated during operational periods in (MWh), while PHm , PSm , PBm are respectively
and analyzed. the power produced by hydro, solar PV, and biogas units in (MW). In eq.
(2), Qtmax is the guaranteed active rated output power of Homer micro-
grid, PHSB is the output power of hybrid system while
3.1. Model formulation micogrid
#(PHm +PSm +PBm ≥ PHSB
micogrid ) indicates that the combined power plants

The developed energy system pursuits two main objectives: the first output power is equal or higher than the Homer micro-grid output
objective A integrate and optimally combines all energy sources to power during the entire operational period M.
maximize of the power generation (Ptmax )see eq. (1), while the Homer
micro-grid supplies the active rated output power (Qtmax ) to the load 3.1.2. Objective function B
centers, as described in eq. (2). The second objective B consists of Balance of the load demand:
balancing the load demand presented in eq. (3). The model is con­ ∑
M
structed based on two objectives, A and B presented in eqs. (1)–(3). The PtD = Qtmax + Ptgrid (3)
Homer software follows these objectives and optimally combines all the m=1

sources. It performs optimization to maximize its power generation and In eq. (3), the guaranteed power supply by the Homer micro-grid
employe operational strategies based on the anticipated load demand. mixed with the power purchased from the local grid must balance the
At first step, the software follows the first objective A as shown in eqs. instantaneous load demand PtD , at any interval t.
(1) and (2); where it optimises the power produced by the four hydro­
electric units, solar PV, and three units of biogas units, presented in eq.
surplus
Ptsystem ⇄ Ptgrid (4)
(1). At the second step, the Homer micro-grid supplies the active rated deficit

output power to the load centers, described in eq. (2). At the next step,
the software pursues objective B to balance the power generation with
the fluctuating load demand presented in eq. (3). Moreover, to meet the
instantaneous load demand in the second objective, Homer microgrid
uses load following strategies, which involve following the load curve
and managing the power generation. In the event that if the load de­
mand decreases the system reduces its production by turning off the
Equation (4) presents the energy trading between the model and the
grid station during the high load demand time; if the model system
cannot meet the load demand, the required power is purchased from the
grid; on the other hand, during the period of lower power demand and
high-power generation by the system, the surplus power is transmitted
to the connected grid station. Ptsystem shares the surplus/deficit power

Fig. 2. Flow diagram of developed energy system model.

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E. Gul et al. Renewable Energy 207 (2023) 672–686

between the proposed system and the local grid station. design is presented in this section. Homer Pro is a powerful optimization
and modeling software used to design and evaluate the performance of a
3.1.3. Constraints hybrid energy system. Homer software optimally combines the con­
The power produced by the system directly supplies to the load nected sources (hydro, solar, biogas) and performs an optimization
centers, and the surplus power is delivered to the connected grid station, based on setting operational strategies, supplying electricity to the
as presented in eq. (5). connected load centers, while as far as surplus load shifting and energy
{ t sharing the model is coupled with the grid station. Fig. 4 shows the
t sup
Psystem →
PLoad
(5) schematic diagram of the developed energy system model, where the
Ptgrid biogas plant and hydropower units are connected to the AC Busbar,
while the solar PV system is connected to the DC Busbar. Fig. 4 also
Equation (6) shows the annual maximum capacity shortage, which is
reports the average annual load demand of residential and commercial
due the degradation of solar PV systems and the efficiency of biogas
load centers. The power produced by the solar PV system is converted
units, while eqs. (7) and (8) present the minimum renewable fraction
into AC by using a system converter.
and the operating reserves of the developed system.
The electricity load demand data and hydropower generation data
CPshortage ≤ 2% (6) are downloaded from the Italian National Electricity Distribution
Company TERNA, ENEL website, and Hydroelectric station Ponte San
REfraction ≥ 30% (7) Giovanni websites [48–50]. The biomass resource data and power
{ generation data are obtained from the local biogas plants. Figs. 5 and 6
Hrload = 10% present the residential and commercial load demand profile of the
(8)
%
OPreserve →
PHrload = 2% selected area: part A describes the 24-h load curve, part B shows the
seasonal load profile and part C reports the yearly load profile of the
3.2. Demand-side load management strategies

In the proposed system, the community load is classified and divided

into residential and commercial load centers for efficient load man­
agement, maximising the renewable energy utilization and eco-
economic benefits. A generalised load shifting technique is imple­
mented for the load management and hence the residential and com­
mercial loads are further categorised into shiftable and non-shiftable
loads. The shiftable load can be switched to the grid station, while the
non-shiftable load considered as base load must be met by renewable
energy. In the residential sector, the shiftable load is set to occur only
during the peak hours (mostly from 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. and from 5 p.m. to 8
p.m. during a typical day), and the peak load shifts from renewable
energies to the local grid station. However, the commercial load curve is
relatively smooth, and the hourly load demand is easy to predict; hence,
it is placed into the non-shiftable load. However, if the renewable power
is insufficient to meet the commercial load demand, the surplus load will
be considered as shiftable load and switched to the grid station. Fig. 3
presnets the schematic process of demand side load management during
a typical day.

3.3. System architecture and resource modeling

Fig. 4. Schematic diagram of hybrid energy system.
The way of modeling each renewable energy source and system

Fig. 3. Demand side load management schematic process.

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Fig. 5. Hourly, seasonal, and yearly residential load demand of selected area.

Fig. 6. Hourly, seasonal, and yearly commercial load demand of selected area.

Municipality of Perugia. ( )2 ( )2
Fig. 6. presents the same data for the commercial load. PtHj = C1j ⋅ Vjt + C2j ⋅ Qtj + C3j ⋅ Vjt ⋅ Qtj + C4j ⋅ Vjt + C5j ⋅ Qtj + C6j (9)

3.4. Hydro power model where PtHj is the actual power generated by the hydroelectric units, Qtj is
the rate of discharge of each reservoir and Vjt is the reservoir storage
The modeled hydroelectric power station is a run-off rive power
volume. The hydroelectric generation is a function of the reservoir water
station built over the river Tevere in Ponte San Giovanni, located in the
head and generating discharge, which in turn is a function of storage.
Municipality of Perugia. At the aim of increasing the power generation
C1j, C2j, C3j, C4j, C5j, C6j are the power generation coefficients.
capacity and to assure a better water management, a cascaded reservoir
network model is used presented in our previous article Ref. [22]. The
3.4.1. Generation limits of hydropower
power produced by the hydroelectric power station is estimated by the
The power generated by the hydroelectric units PtHj depends on the
following Eq. (9).
physical limits of the reservoir storage volume and the discharge of

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reservoirs. Equation (10) describes the generation limits of the plant,
while the power produced depends on the physical limits of reservoir
storage volume and the discharge of reservoirs.
Pmin t max
Hj ≤ PHj ≤ PHj (10)
3.4.2. Hydraulic network constraints
The operational constraints of the hydraulic reservoir network
consist of the water balance equations for each hydro unit, the bound­
aries on the reservoir storage and the release levels, as reported in Eqs.
(11)–(14). These limits include the Stj spillage of the reservoir at time t,
the discharge rate Qtj , and Vjt is the storage volume of the reservoir:
(a) physical limitations on reservoir storage volumes and generating
discharge:
historical weather data for the solar system are obtained from the NASA
surface meteorology dataset [52] for the city of Perugia.
( )[
Rm
Ppv = Epv 1 + αp (Tc − Tstc ) (15)
Rstc
Ppv is the actual output power, Epv is the rated power output, while
Rstc and Rm represent the radiation intensity under Standard Test Con­
ditions (STC) (1000 W/m2) and actual radiation intensity (W/m2)
respectively. Tstc is the temperature of the STC (25 ◦ C). Tc is the solar cell
real temperature while ap is the temperature power coefficient of solar
cell module (− 0.35%/◦ C). Fig. 8 shows the hourly solar beam irradiance
(W/m2), the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) (W/m2) and the diffuse
horizontal irradiance (DHI) (W/m2) at the selected location.
3.6. Biogas plant model

Vjmin ≤ Vjt ≤ Vjmax (11) Three biogas power units are used to supply power to the inter­
connected system, 500 kW each, for a total power of 1.5 MW. The
Qmin
j ≤ Qtj ≤ Qmax
j (12) feedstock used in these units is maize crops (80%) and olive pomace
(20%); however the monthly average available feedstock in the Mu­
(b) the continuity equation for the reservoir network: nicipality of Perugia is 80 tons. Fig. 9 presents the efficiency curve of the
biogas plant, showing that the plant efficiency increases when the plant
Ruj
∑ ( t− τlj )
operates at its maximum rated capacity. Fig. 10 presents a simplified
(13)
t− τlj
Vjt+1 = Vjt + Ijt − Qtj − Sjt + Ql + Sl schematic sketch of the proposed biogas plant: the raw feedstock is
collected in the storage tank and then supplied to the influent tank for
l=1

(c) the initial and final reservoir storages:
Vj0 = Vjini VjT = Vjend (14)
Fig. 7 presents the cascaded reservoirs network model of the Ponte
San Giovanni hydroelectric unit. The flow-in waters I1, I2, I3, and I4 are
stored in the reservoirs and go through the hydro turbines to produce the
electricity. The cascade reservoirs are also considered for hydro units to
the mixture. After the mixture preparation, the material is fed into the
digestor tank, where the biogas is produced and supplied to the con­
nected generators for electricity production. The biogas generator yield
is determined by the eq. (16) [53], which estimates the biogass pro­
duction per unit feedstock, while the overall biogass produced by the
biogas plant is estimated by the eq. (17).
p
YBG,j = YBG,j × VSD− (16)
flowrate,j

increase the power generation efficiency and improve the water utili­
zation of the existing water resources.
3.5. Solar PV system model
The new solar PV system is developed in the engineering campus of
Perugia University Italy, and the fixed axis PV system is installed on the
roof of the campus buildings, while its direction is 180◦ (South) and the
tilt angle is 25◦ . The solar PV system is coupled with the DC Busbar and
the system converter transforms DC into AC power, feeding the system
micro grid. The solar system model developed by the NREL is used to
estimate the power produced in Eq. (15) [51]. The solar radiation
EBG,j = MVS,j × YBG,j (17)
p
YBG,j is the yield of produced biogas, YBG,j is the potential biogas yield.
While the VSD− flowrate,j is the flowrate of volatile solid digestor. The EBG,j is
the biogas production from the feedstock, and MVS,j is the mass flow ratio
of volatile solid. The power PBG of biogas plant is estimated by eq. (18).
CVBG is lower calorific valueand ηsystem is biomass system overall effi­
ciency [53].
PBG = EBG × CVBG × ηsystem (18)
The power produced by the three generators is combined at the AC
busbar and supplied to the Homer microgrid. The Homer microgrid
performs scheduling of the connected units and optimises the power
generation to meet the connected load demand. The lower heating value
of the biogas is 5.5 MJ/kg, the density is 0.720 kg/m3, and the carbon
content is 5.0%. Fig. 9 shows the efficiency curve of the biogas engine,
which operates near its full load capacity during the operational period.
It emerges that, when biogas engines operate at its full load capacity, the
engine efficiency increases. The values highlighted in the blue area from
780 to 1500 kW show the best operational ranges of biogas generator,
increasing engine performance and efficiency as well as its operational
life.
As far as the annual operational strategies of the biogas units,
because of the limited availability of feedstock, the operational time is
set to 17 h a day. During night time, from 2 a.m. to 6 a.m., and at day
time, from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m., the plant stops its operation; for the rest of
the period it produces power. After 1000 operational hours the plant is
stopped for 24 h for maintenance purposes. The total operational period
of the biogas plant in the first year is 6069 h.

Fig. 7. Hydraulic System Network model.

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E. Gul et al. Renewable Energy 207 (2023) 672–686

Fig. 8. Hourly solar radiations at selected location.

mine which will be used first for power generation. HOMER calculates
the NPC and LCOE of each component and of the system as a whole, then
according to these parameters it chooses a source to produce power. The
system takes into account the calculations for costs such as capital,
replacement, operation and maintenance, and fuel. The NPC of this
project is the present value of all costs including the capital, O&M, fuel,
and replacement cost of all components, minus the profit cost. The NPC
cost is determined by using eq. (19), presented in Ref. [54].
)
∑N=t
(
NPC = Fdis Ccaptal + CO&M+Fuel− cos t + Creplacment − Cprofit (19)
N=1

Fdis is discount factor, while t is lifetime of the project, and N is the nth
year of computation. Cprofit is the present value of all incomes that
developed system gain during the project lifetime. The LCOE defines the
cost of energy produced by the proposed system; at the aim of deter­
mining the LCOE of this project, the annuitizing method is implemented,
Fig. 9. Efficiency curve of the proposed biogas plant. as presented in eq. (20). LCOE is the ratio of the total annual cost divided
by the average annual output power of the system [55].
( n )
∑ Ct ( r )
(1+r) t
1− (1+r)− n
Annual(cos t)
LCOEAnnuitizing = = t=0( n )/ (20)
Average(output) ∑
Et n
t=1

Et is the systems electricity output in year t, Ct is the future cost at each

time interval t, while r is the discount rate and n is the lifetime of project
(25 years). The inflation rate is 1.0% and the discount rate is 10.0%. The
electricity trading with the local grid station is based on the Italian
National single market price at flat-rate tariff, where the price of the
electricity purchased from the grid is 34.5 ¢€/kWh in November 2021,
and the electricity is sold to the grid at the price of 20.0 ¢€/kWh [56] in
November 2021. Table 4 presents the first-year energy trading between
the proposed system and the local grid station.
Fig. 10. Simple schematic sketch of the proposed biogas plant.

5. Results
4. Economic analysis
This section presents the results of the developed energy system
One of the core objectives of the proposed work is to perform an
model. Table 5 shows the total energy produced by the renewable en­
economic analysis of the developed system to investigate the project
ergy sources during the first year operation and their share of energy
socio-economic feasibility. The economic parameters such as CAPEX,
with respect to the total load and energy purchased from the local grid.
operational cost, fuel cost, replacement cost and maintenance cost are
Furthermore, Table 6 shows the annual AC primary load demand of the
used to determine the operation of each source/component. Homer
municipality of Perugia is also reported, divided in residential and
software used the parameters NPC and LCOE of each source to deter­
commercial loads. A significant amount of surplus electricity is supplied

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E. Gul et al. Renewable Energy 207 (2023) 672–686

Table 4 production. Furthermore, in the summer season, the load demand in­
First year electricity trading between the developed system and the grid station. creases and during this period, a higher amount of energy is purchased
Month Energy purchased (kWh) Energy sold (kWh) Peak load (kWh) from the local grid station to balance the load demand, even if the solar
PV system supplies a significant quantity of energy.
Jan 354,241 476,461 6173
Feb 328,714 400,269 4238 One of the key objectives of this project consisted of increasing the
Mar 486,965 325,940 5357 penetration and utilization of RES and this model adopted a maximi­
Apr 671,251 168,156 6355 zation approach by means of an effective energy management and
May 714,584 214,522 6717 operational strategies of the system. Results of Table 7 indicate that the
Jun 1,136,630 89,003 9453
Jul 1,364,298 72,958 9399
renewable fraction and the total renewable energy generation is
Aug 1,281,949 85,025 8333 significantly high, and a big amount of renewable energy has been uti­
Sep 895,393 162,113 7593 lized to balance the load demand (78.8%); the rest of the load demand is
Oct 734,351 209,916 7061 met by the power purchased by the local grid.
Nov 470,277 342,020 6821
Demand-side energy management is a key strategy to balance the
Dec 454,316 409,227 5320
Annual 8,892,967 2,955,609 9453 load demand and the high-fluctuating energy demand outpaces the ca­
pacity of the power station and may cause shutdowns. The designed
model used this strategy; the results in Figs. 12 and 13 show the hourly
and annually energetic profile of the total electrical load and the energy
Table 5
trading between the developed system and grid station. The graphs show
First year net energy produced by the renewable sources and grid purchased.
also the power produced by each component over a daily and yearly
Component kWh/year Percentage (%)
horizon, and their share to meet the load of the Municipality of Perugia.
Solar PV 3,713,910 8.81
Biogas 3 × 500 kW 9,102,683 21.6 5.1. Power produced by the solar PV system
Hydro Electric 20,437,166 48.5
Grid Purchases 8,892,080 21.1
Total 42,145,839 100 The results in Table 8 and Fig. 14 indicate that the PV system pro­
duces a significant amount of energy, playing a vital role to supply
power to the load centers, especially during the summer season. Table 8
shows the technical parameters of the PV system, and the results indi­
Table 6
Primary AC energy demand and grid sales. cate that the capacity factor of solar PV system is 17%, while the LCOE
and operational hours (4375/year) of the system show the importance of
Component kWh/year Percentage (%)
the PV system integration with the network. Furthermore, Fig. 14 shows
AC Primary Load 39,004,160 93.0 the seasonal variation of the power production of the solar system. As
Deferrable Load 0 0
the load demand increases during the summer period, the PV system
Grid Sales 2,955,984 7.04
Total 41,960,144 100 helps to meet this load demand.

to the local grid station during the first year of operation.

With the purpose of a better understanding of the energy generation
by each source, Fig. 11 presents a graph of the monthly average power Table 7
produced by the solar, hydro, biogas plants and the power purchased Annual net energy produced by the renewable sources and grid purchased.
from the grid station. The graph shows that the biogas plant produces Energy based metric Value Unit
energy throughout the year due to sufficient availability of feedstock, Renewable Fraction 78.8 %
supplying power for the baseload. In summer season, the water level in Total renewable production divided by load 79.3 %
river Tevere decreases, with a consequent reduction of the hydro power Total renewable production divided by generation 78.9 %

Fig. 11. Monthly average energy produced by the system and energy purchased from grid.

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E. Gul et al. Renewable Energy 207 (2023) 672–686

Fig. 12. Hourly Electricity produced by the Renewable energy sources and grid exchange.

Fig. 13. Total electricity load served and power purchased and sold to the local grid station.

5.3. Power produced by the biogas units

Table 8
Technical parameters of the solar PV system.
In the developed energy system model, the Biogas plant produces a
Quantity Value Unit high amount of energy and helps to supply power during peak hours.
Rated Capacity 2500 kW The operational strategies and efficient utilization of available feedstock
Mean Output 424 kW result in high system performance. Table 10 shows the technical pa­
Mean Output 10,175 kWh/d
rameters of the biogas plant. Its capacity factor is very high if compared
Capacity Factor 17.0 %
Total Production 3,713,910 kWh/year to the other integrated components (69.3%).
Minimum Output 0 kW Fig. 16 shows the operational time and power generation of the
Maximum Output 2400 kW Biogas units for one year. From 2 a.m. to 6 a.m. and from 10 a.m. to 1 p.
PV Penetration 9.52 % m., the biogas plants are stopped. The operational period of the biogas
Hours of Operation 4375 hours/year
units is 17/24 h. After every 1000 operational hours, biogas units were
Levelized Cost Of Energy 0.00258 €/kWh
stopped for the maintenance.

5.2. Power produced by hydroelectric units 5.4. Economic analysis results

The hydropower system plays a key role to supply power to the load
center. Due to the efficient utilization of water resources, the results
demonstrate the high efficiency of the hydroelectric system. Table 9
shows the technical parameters and generation values; results show that
the consistent amount of power produced by the hydro units: its capacity
factor is 58.3%, and the LCOE is also significantly low as compared to
the other components. Because of the rise and fall of the water level in
the river Tevere (Fig. 15), the highest production is guaranteed in
winter, while in summer the production is minimum.
This section deals with the results of the economic analysis model
presented in section 4. Table 11 describes the economic values of the
developed project. The economic analysis shows the lowest NPC, LCOE,
CAPEX, operation cost, and the electricity price with and without sys­
tem. In contrast to the latest research studies presented in Table 1, the
introduction section show that this research study significantly reduces
the cost of energy of hybrid system. The LCOE of the developed system is
found to be 0.067 €/kWh, which is much lower than that reported in
other studies. For example, the cost of energy was reported to be 0.088
€/kWh, 0.090 €/kWh, 0.37 €/kWh, 0.15 €/kWh, 0.57 €/kWh, and

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E. Gul et al. Renewable Energy 207 (2023) 672–686

Fig. 14. Annual power generation of the PV system.

5.5. Environmental results

Table 9
Technical parameters of the hydroelectric power station.
This section performs an analysis to determine the influence of the
Quantity Value Unit proposed system on the environment and to evaluate the CO2 emissions
Total Rated Capacity 4000 kW reduced during the operational life of the project. According to the 2020
Mean output 2333 kW report of the Italian Institute for Environment Protection and Research,
Capacity factor 58.3 %
the emission factor of the thermal power plants is 367 gCO2/kWh [57,
Total Production 20,437,166 kWh/year
Minimum output 2001 kW 58]. During the first year the total power produced by the system (hydro,
Maximum output 2701 kW solar, and biogas) is 33,254 MWh, and the CO2 emissions reduction is
Hydrokinetic penetration 52.4 % estimated in 13,452 tons. Table 12 presents the emissions of different
Levelized Cost 0.00504 €/kWh gases from the developed system during the first year.
The proposed system is applicable for the other locations and regions
0.88€/kWh in Refs. [31,33,34,37–39], respectively. Results indicate
that the proposed system is economical feasible and sustainable for the
long-term renewable energy system development. Besides, the economic Table 10
efficiency of the developed energy system is demonstrated, as the annual Technical parameters of the Biogas plant.
electricity bill is 2.1 million euros, which is the cost of the electricity Quantity Value Unit
purchased from the grid, while the electricity bill could reach 14.3 Hours of Operation 6069 hour/year
million euros without the developed system. Number of Starts 723 starts/year
Furthermore, Fig. 17 presents the economic analysis of the entire Operational Life 16.5 years
Capacity Factor 69.3 %
project, describing the capital expenditure CAPEX, the operating and
Fixed Generation Cost 2.22 €/hour
maintenance cost, the replacement cost, the profit values, the cost of Marginal Generation Cost 0.00286 €/kWh
biomass resources and the cost of electricity purchased from the grid Electrical Production 9,102,683 kWh/year
station. Results indicate that the operational cost of the project is high Mean Electrical Output 1500 kW
because of the energy purchased price from the grid station. Minimum Electrical Output 1092 kW
Fuel Energy Input 29,204,567 kWh/year
Mean Electrical Efficiency 31.2 %

Fig. 15. Annual power generation of the hydroelectric station.

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E. Gul et al. Renewable Energy 207 (2023) 672–686

Fig. 16. Annual electricity produced by the three Biogas plants.

proposes a hybrid renewable energy system model. The results show

Table 11
that up to 78% of the energy demand of the selected area can be covered
Economic summary of the developed project.
by renewables. The maximization approach and optimal dispatch stra­
Quantity Value tegies could help to overcome the key barriers for the implementation of
Net Present Cost 7.616 € Million 100% renewable energy in the future.
LCOE 0.067 €/kWh The efficient demand side load management strategies such as load
Operating cost € 622,810 shifting, peak shaving and valley filling etc. would help to boost the
Electricity price sold to grid 0.6 Million €/year
Electricity price without system 14.3 Million €/year
reliability and flexibility of the system. This research also introduces
Electricity price with system 2.1 € Million €/year demand-side load management strategies which classified the load
centers into residential and commercial load centers, and the total load
considered as shiftable and non-shiftable. Moreover, the surplus energy
and can be expanded for large-scale energy system modeling. The sys­ is shared with interconnected grid station. In contrast with other work,
tem produced a large amount of clean energy and reduced the signifi­ the load shifting techniques are most effective in the existing distribu­
cant amount of GHG emissions. The efficient resources management and tion system, because during the peak-hours demand time, the residential
effective operational and load management strategies not only increased load increases while the commercial load remains smooth. Hence, the
the utilization of renewable energy, but also meet the load demand of load shift is found to reduce the burden from the system. The eco-
the Municipality of Perugia. economic impact of the clean energy technologies is also analyzed in
this work. The proposed model results in an energy cost of 0.067 €/kWh,
6. Conclusions

The research work presented in this paper contributes to the accel­ Table 12
eration of the energy transition process for the achievement of the UN Greenhous gases emissions during the first year of system operation.
and EU’s 2050 Net-Zero CO2 emission goals. The study proposes original Quantity Value Unit
approaches for socio-economical, sustainable, and feasible solutions Carbon Dioxide 3,958,919 kg/year
aimed at reducing the dependence on fossil fuels and increasing the Carbon Monoxide 2185 kg/year
renewable energy utilization in urban and sub-urban communities. It Unburned Hydrocarbons 137 kg/year
Particulate Matter 81.9 kg/year
investigates the potential of renewable energy sources in the selected
Sulfur Dioxide 24,367 kg/year
area in order to identify the suitable sites for renewable energy in­ Nitrogen Oxides 11,951 kg/year
frastructures. To increase the renewable energy generation, the study

Fig. 17. Economic analysis of the proposed model.

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E. Gul et al.
which is significantly lower than the ones reported in other works. The
environmental analysis shows that the proposed system reduces the CO2
emissions by 13,452 tons during the first year of operation.
The proposed energy system model has a broad scale of applicability
and can be replicated for large-scale, long-term energy systems espe­
cially modeled for 100% renewable energy systems in the future.
Additionally, this research offers more space to introduce new energy
technologies such as wind, marine, hydrogen energy, and advanced
energy storage system for long-term energy accumulation for variable
energy sources. This research could be extended to analyse and include
in the integrated system new storage technologies such as hydrogen
energy, pump hydro storage and flywheels. The proposed energy system
model is also applicable for different regions and can accommodate
heavy energy demand sectors such as industrial and agricultural load
centers.
Credit author statement
Eid Gul: Conceptualization, formulation of methodology, and
writing. Giorgio Baldinelli: formulation of methodology, review,
proofreading and supervision. Tariq Shamim: Methodology, review,
editorial check. Pietro Bartocci: discussion, review, Francesco Bianchi:
review and discussion, Piergiovanni Domenghini: profreading and dis­
cussion, Franco Cotana and Francesco Fantozzi: review and profreading,
Jinwen Wang: review and profreading.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
Sincere gratitude and special thanks to Biomass Research Center,
CIRIAF and University of Perugia for providing the facilities and support
to conduct this research work.
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