India Strategy

India Strategy
RISK REWARD
In fine fettle
Amnish Agarwal amnishaggarwal@plindia.com 91-22-6632 2233
India Strategy
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January 10, 2024 2

India Strategy
January 10, 2024 In fine fettle
NIFTY has given 8.7% return over the past 6 weeks as confluence of strong
FII inflows, state election results and hopes of interest rate cut in 2024 ignited
Top Picks the markets. Domestic demand remains mixed as rural recovery is stunted
due to inflation and poor spatial distribution of monsoons while urban India
Large Cap is resilient. we believe that it is a passing phase and India will see significant
ABB India shift in consumer wallet share towards discretionary and premium products
Avenue Supermarts as we move towards USD5 trillion economy in coming few years. We believe
HDFC Bank trends are already visible across PV’s, 2W, FMCG, Jewellery, Mobiles,
Hindalco Industries Smartwatches, Real Estate, Food Delivery, Fintech and Travel etc.
ICICI Bank
Maruti Suzuki India is in the most transformative phase in its history with massive
Max Healthcare Institute Infrastructure development (Highways, Logistics, Ports, railways, Metro),
Reliance Industries Defense, PLI and significant increase in domestic demand with rising income
Siemens levels and youngest population globally. Markets have been exuberant post
state election results as chances of ruling NDA coming to power post
elections has increased significantly, however it remains the biggest risk
Mid / Small Caps
also. We remain positive on Banks, Capital Goods, Hospitals, Pharma and
Astral Ltd.
Discretionary consumption. NIFTY is trading at 10.8% discount to 10-year
Can Fin Homes
average with 12.6% EPS CAGR over FY24-26. We increase our base case
Eris Lifesciences
NIFTY target to 24544 (22584 earlier) with clear focus on quality and
Jupiter Life Line Hospitals
companies with strong balance sheets and business moats.
Navneet Education
R R Kabel
We estimate 11.8% sales growth, 11.9% growth in EBIDTA and 16.9% growth in
Safari Industries (India)
PBT of coverage universe. Ex oil & Gas we estimate 10.2% growth in EBIDTA and
Sunteck Realty
15.1% in PBT. Auto, Capital Goods, Pharma, Metals, Building Material, HFC, and
Triveni Turbine
Travel will lead growth. Chemicals, Media, Education and Telecom will be drags.
Contra BUY  3Q24 results show impact of a tepid festival, marriage and rural demand while
Restaurant Brands Asia urban demand has been resilient. Demand scenario is mixed with strong
demand from upper and upper middle class while lower class seems to be
PL Model Portfolio v/s Nifty under inflationary pressure. Rural recovery has been slower due to impact of
Model inflation and poor monsoons in some states. Discretionary spending on travel,
Returns Nifty Perf.
Portfolio
tourism, Jewellery, housing, PV/UV has been good while 2W are showing signs
Since
108.81% 100.18% 8.63% of revival. QSR, apparel, Durables demand however remains impacted.
Nov'18
Since  Strong volumes and benign inputs re proving strong 132bps margin expansion
Last 8.49% 8.90% -0.41%
Report in autos. Banks PBT will increase by 5.3% only due to NIM compression and
Since
higher Opex. Capital Goods will report 16.6% sales and 20.4% PBT growth led
22.8% 21.68% 1.08%
Apr’23 by govt capex and PLI. Travel companies will report 36% EBIDTA growth due
Source: PL to seasonally strong quarter, rising domestic leisure travel and world cup. 24%
PBT growth in Pharma universe will be led by strong domestic formulations
and steady US demand and pricing.
Amnish Aggarwal  Stable RM prices and steady demand will boost build material companies.
amnishaggarwal@plindia.com | 91-22-66322233
Consumer companies will report tepid performance in most staple companies,
steady growth in jewellery while most QSR will report decline in profits.
Durables will report tepid growth except wire and cable companies. Oil and
Gas will show impact of lower refining margins. Chemicals will show impact of
tepid global demand and pricing.
January 10, 2024 3

India Strategy
 NIFTY EEPS has seen an increase of 0.6/03/-0.2 for FY24/25/26 with 17.1%
CAGR over FY23-26 and EPS of Rs1092/1221/1384. Our EPS estimates are
2.5% higher for FY24 but lower by 0.1/1.8% in FY25/26 than Bloomberg
consensus EPS estimates.
 NIFTY is currently trading at 18.1x 1-year forward EPS, which is at 10.8%

discount to 10-year average of 20.3x. Nifty was trading at discount of 17.2%
with a PE of 16.9 before recent rally.
 Base Case: we value NIFTY at 10% discount (15% earlier) to 10-year average
PE (20.4x) with Dec 25 EPS of 1343 and arrive at 12-month target of 24544
(22584 based on 17.3x Sept 25 EPS of Rs1302 earlier). Bull Case, we value
NIFTY at 5% discount to 10-year average PE (7.5% discount earlier) and arrive
at bull case target of 25907 (24573 earlier). Bear case Nifty can trade at 25%
discount to LPA (25% earlier) with a target of 20453 (19927 earlier).
 Model Portfolio: We increase weight and remain overweight on Banks, Cap

Goods and Healthcare. We turn overweight on diversified financials (led by
HDFC AMC). We turn equal weight on IT services and underweight on Auto.
We remain underweight on Metals, Cement, Consumer and Oil & Gas with
most weight cuts in consumer space. Maximum weights increase has been in
Siemens, Larsen & Toubro, ABB India, ICICI Bank, Max Healthcare Institute,
Tata Motors, Hindalco Industries, HDFC AMC, L&T Technology Services. We
have removed Ashok Leyland / HDFC Life Insurance from model portfolio and
maximum weight cut has been in Avenue Supermarts, Hindustan Unilever and
TCS.
 High Conviction Picks: We are adding Astral, Jupiter Health, Safari and
Triveni Turbine in high conviction picks. We are removing contra sells and
Kajaria ceramics from contra buys. Changes in the list are based on current
market position while our long term view remains same on some of the names.
El Nino and Elections are major Headwinds

Headwinds Tailwinds
Delay in rural demand recovery given poor India remains fastest growing economy,
monsoons and inflation GDP growth likely at 7.3% in FY24
Elections and Govt. Stability given general
Expected pickup in rural demand in 2024
elections in 2024
Geopolitical uncertainties in Middle East Strong Credit growth and strong Bank B/S
Capex revival with Infra push, PLI, China+1
and Digitization
Source: PL
January 10, 2024 4

India Strategy
Indian consumer moving up the value chain
India has come a long way from a license driven economy to a free market economy
which has seen sea change in affordability, availability, consumer aspirations and
perceptions. India is on the cusp of big shift in demand patterns as we move towards
being a USD 5 trillion economy in the next few years.
 Generational Financial Attitudes: There's a notable generational shift in

financial attitudes, especially among Gen Z, who prioritize spending on
experiences and quality products rather than traditional saving models. India
being youngest major economy will significantly benefit from this.
 National pride and confidence: Rising global clout of India as a nation and
sense of pride is adding to consumer confidence. India is emerging as a major
hub for IT services, Fintech, Pharma, Medical tourism.
 Urban vs. Rural Spending Patterns: While rural areas are not experiencing
this shift at the same rate, however with rising connectivity, education and
industrialization, rural will also catch up in coming years as consumer
aspirations are fast converging.
We expect strong premiumisation to continue sweeping the hinterlands in the years

to come. We believe this change in spending patterns will result in increased growth
in discretionary spends and share of wallet which will be reflected in higher spends
on Housing, travel, education, Durables, Auto and premium brands in clothing,
jewellery, accessories etc. we highlight some of the data points as under:
Real estate – move towards premium/luxury apartments
 In top 7 cities - Luxury apartment sales up 115% YoY in 9mCY23 and account
for 24% of total sales
 Growth is broad based across cities with all cities except MMR and Kolkata
growing by more than 119%
House sale >1.5Cr. are considered Luxury houses

Luxury Housing sales across Top 7 cities (units)
Cities 9MCY2023 9MCY2022 %YoY Change
NCR 13,630 6,210 119%
MMR 36,130 20,820 74%
Bangalore 9,220 3,810 142%
Pune 6,850 2,350 191%
Hyderabad 13,630 3,790 260%
Chennai 3,330 1,370 143%
Kolkata 1,610 950 69%
Total Luxury unit 84,400 39,300 115%
Total Unit 349,000 273,000
% Contri 24% 14%
Source: Company, PL
 Share of >Rs10 mn houses up from 16% to 30% over past 5 years while bottom
end has shrunk by 22pc
January 10, 2024 5

India Strategy
 Share of mid segment has also seen an increase from 30% to 38% in the past
5 years and trend is likely to sustain.
Housing demands in India
<5mn 5-10mn >10mn
100%
90% 16% 18% 20% 21% 27% 30%
80%
70% 30%
33% 35%
60% 37%
36%
50% 38%
40%
30% 54% 48% 45% 42%
20% 37% 32%
10%
0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1H2023
Source: Company, PL
Auto – PV shift towards UV
 FY23 Total PV sales at 1.74mn were lower than 2014 sales of 1.78mn
 During the same period the sales of UV have grown from 0.52mn to 2mn
 Share of UV in total sales has increased from 23% in 2014 to 62% (FYTD)
 With the mass and mid segment, sales of Mini have declined from 0.52mn to
0.24mn while compact sedans sales decline from a peak of 0.45mn to 0.29mn.
 Sales of compact SUV has increased 18x from .054mn to 0.9mn during the
same period
Compact UV’s has taken over mini & sedan % contribution of UV’s on a rise
Mini Compact Sedan Compact UV TOTAL % share of PV % share of UV

903
1,000 4000 77% 77% 78% 73% 90%

70% 70% 80%
3500 64% 59% 62%
800 3000 53% 70%
50%
547
2500 60%
461
450
600
38% 50%
2000
344
40%
337
('000)
50%
('000)
1500
295
41% 30%
252
400 47%
1000 36% 20%
27% 30% 30%
500 23% 23% 22% 10%
200
54
0 0%
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24YTD
-
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
Source: MOSPI, PL Source: MOSPI, PL
January 10, 2024 6

India Strategy
Bikes – entry level bikes de-growing
 Overall less than 250cc bikes have seen a decline if 1% CAGR, however 110-
250cc has seen growth with max decline at 2.8% CAGR is in entry level
 250cc and above segment has grown at a CAGR of 15.9%
Bikes – mid segment gaining from entry level 2W – premium segment has grown at 15.9% CAGR
CAGR (FY14-FY23) <250cc (LHS) 250cc and above (RHS)
4.0% 3.5% 14,000 1,000

3.0% 12,000
800
2.0% 10,000
600
('000)
1.0% 8,000
0.0% 6,000 400
-1.0% -0.2% 4,000
-2.0% 200
2,000
-3.0% - -
-2.8%
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
-4.0%
75cc-110cc 110cc-125cc 125cc-250cc
Travel – Shift from Railways to Air Travel, AC coaches
 Non suburban railway traffic has declined at 1.1% CAGR since 2010 while
Aviation passengers have grown at 8.8% CAGR.
 In Railways, AC sleeper passengers have grown from 70.8mn in 2010 to

205.3mn in 2023, at 8.4% CAGR. AC chair car has seen travelers increase
from 14.5mn to 35.6mn at 7.1% CAGR. During the same time non Ac travelers
have declined from 3284mn to 2675mn at a CAGR of 1.6%.
Passengers leaning toward Airline travel Increase in demand for AC coaches
Non-suburb Trains (LHS) Domestic Airlines (RHS) AC Sleeper (LHS) AC Chair (LHS)
Non-AC Sleeper (RHS)
4500 160
4000 140 250 205 5000
3500 120
3000 200 3284 3303 4000
nos. in m n
100
nos. in m n
2500 2675
80 150 150 3000
2000
1500 60 72
100 2000
1000 40 36
500 20 50 15 1000
0 0 0 0
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
January 10, 2024 7

India Strategy
Consumer – fast evolving
 Biscuits - Share of mass segment has declined from 60% in early 2006 to just
19% to total market as cookies and creams have been growing faster
Biscuits - Mid premium and premium segments are 80% of market

INR bn 2015 2020 2025E
Mid-premium & Premium Biscuits 180 321 504
5 yr CAGR (%) 12% 9%
Overall Size 250 400 620
5 yr CAGR (%) 10% 9%
Premium % of total Market 72% 80% 81%
Source: PL
 Detergents – Once dominated by mass segment brands like Nirma, Garhi and
Wheel, the segment has seen significant upgradation over the years. Although
tonnage sales of economy segment remain high, Surf Excel is first HPC brand
to cross USD1bn in sales and is largest brand for Unilever in India
 Jewellery – Share of branded/ organised jewellery has increased from less

than 5% to ~ 30-35% of total jewellery market
 Smart watches - India became largest smart watch market in CY22 with 167%
jump in volumes
 I-phones - India is likely to emerge as 5th largest market for Apple I-phones
with volumes exceeding 9mn
 Food delivery – Zomato has more than 0.2mn restaurant partners and had
more than 647mn orders in FY23. Zomato and Swiggy had multiplier sales
during new year.
Food ordering and delivery increasing at brisk pace

Zomato FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Average monthly active food
delivery restaurant partners 61 131 110 180 210
('000)
Total Orders (mn) 191 403 239 535 647
Source: Company, PL
 Quick commerce – Indian consumer transition from GT to MT, Ecom and

quick commerce has been very fast. Platforms like Blinkit, Zepto, BN now,
Swiggy Instamart etc. are growing at a rapid pace
We believe Indian consumer is fast evolving aided by young population, media and
social awareness, aspirations and affordability. While we have highlighted some of
the segments, changing consumption patterns will significantly transform the
sectoral and segmental matrices in coming years.
January 10, 2024 8

India Strategy
Economy seems to be in fine fettle
Indian economy seems to be a fine fettle with expected GDP growth of 7.3% in
FY24. Overall expenditure has grown by 8.6% mainly led by 31% growth in capex
which has been driving the economy in a tough global environment and below
normal monsoons with poor spatial distribution.
 High frequency indicators are in good shape with rising spends on credit cards,
power demand, higher capacity utilization.
31% growth in Govt capex is driving economy

Expenditure Growth (% YoY)
INR t
FY23RE FY24BE 8MFY22 8MFY23 8MFY24 FY24BE 8MFY24
Total Expenditure 41.9 45.0 20.7 24.4 26.5 7.5% 8.6%
-Revenue Expenditure 34.6 35.0 18.0 20.0 20.7 1.2% 3.5%
--Interest Payment 9.4 10.8 4.6 5.5 6.1 14.8% 11.5%
--Revenue ex. Interest 25.2 24.2 13.4 14.5 14.6 -3.8% 0.6%
-Capital exp. 7.3 10.0 2.7 4.5 5.9 37.4% 31.0%
Source: CGA, PL
 Total tax revenue in 8MFY24 has increased by 17.2%. direct tax collection
growth at 24.8% is ahead of estimates with corporate and income tax growth
of 20.1% and 29.4%
 Indirect tax growth has been a muted 5.1% and is mainly led by double digit
growth in GST. Excise has been impacted due to cut in duty on fuel while slack
export demand has impacted custom duties collection.
Tax revenues driven by 24.8% higher direct taxes, excide and custom remains tepid
TAX Growth (% YoY)
(INR t)
FY23RE FY24BE 8MFY22 8MFY23 8MFY24 FY24BE 8MFY24
Net Tax Revenue 20.9 23.3 11.4 12.2 14.4 11.7% 17.2%
Direct Tax 16.5 18.2 7.0 8.7 10.8 10.5% 24.8%
Corporate Tax 8.4 9.2 3.5 4.3 5.1 10.5% 20.1%
Income Tax 8.2 9.0 3.5 4.4 5.7 10.5% 29.4%
Indirect Tax 13.9 15.4 8.4 9.1 9.6 10.4% 5.1%
Goods & Services Tax (GST) 8.5 9.6 4.5 5.6 6.1 12.0% 10.3%
Excise duties 3.2 3.4 2.4 1.9 1.8 5.9% -7.9%
Customs 2.1 2.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 11.0% 0.3%
Less transfers to states, UTs, etc. 9.6 10.3 4.1 5.6 6.1 7.7% 9.1%
Source: CGA, PL
 Economy is likely to post GDP growth of 7.3% led by 7.7% growth in 1H24.
 Nominal GDP has grown at 8.6% during 1H24 which is 2.3% lower than
FY24BE which shows impact of slackness in demand and also tepid export
market.
 Lower nominal GDP growth suggest risk to fiscal deficit target unless direct tax
collections and demand picks up in 3/4QFY24.
January 10, 2024 9

India Strategy
Real GDP likely to grow by 7.3% Nominal GDP growth lower than est
Real GDP YoY gr. (%) (RHS) Nominal GDP YoY gr. (%) (RHS)
9.1 18.4
180 8.0 7.2 7.7 10.0 300 16.1 20
6.4 6.8
160 8.0 13.0
140 3.9 6.0 250 11.0 10.5 11.8 11.0 10.6 15
120 4.0 200 8.6
100 2.0 6.4 10
80 - 150
5
60 -2.0 100 -1.4
40 -5.8 -4.0
50 -
20 -6.0
0 -8.0 - (5)
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
H1FY23
H1FY24
H1FY23
H1FY24
 CAD seems under control helped by higher decline in imports. Exports have
declined by 7.8% YTD but imports have declined by 9% as softer crude prices
have resulted in 18.6% decline in oil imports even as Gold imports are
up27.5%.
 Service imports have increased by 8.3% which has resulted in 19.7% growth
in service balance to USD 106bn. CAD has declined to 1.8% of GDP in 1H24
and might decline further.
CAD softens led by service exports and benign oil Demand continues to see moderation
USD bn % of GDP (RHS) Employment Demanded

40 2%
FY22 FY23 FY24
20 1% 60
1.3%
0%
- 50 48
-1%
Persons (mn)
(20) -0.8% -2% 40

-1.2% 44
-1.6%-1.3% -1.8% -3%
-2.0% -1.9%
(40) -2.4% 30
-2.9% -4% 29
-3.4% 19
(60) -5% 20
(80) -5.0% -6% 10
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
H1FY23
H1FY24
-
Nov
Dec
Oct
May
Mar
Aug
Sep
Apr
Jun
Jan
Jul
Feb
 Rural India has been impacted by poor spatial distribution of monsoons and
impact on many rain fed states. Demand under MNREGA was up 15% YoY
between July-Oct 23 however it has seen a decline of 7% in Nov/Dec23 which
along with higher election led spending and higher MSP should aid rural
demand revival in coming months.
January 10, 2024 10

India Strategy
Budget/ VOA – Rural, Bottom end and Infra focus
2024 budget/ Vote on account will be just before 2024 Lok Sabha elections. We
believe it will focus on giving a balance approach to being growth oriented and
pragmatic with focus on
 Rural development and social schemes with allocation for credit availability,
MNREGA, PM Awas, Food security etc
 Some tax sops for middle class, renewed thrust on Infrastructure development,
some concrete steps on energy transition and higher education etc.
Automobiles
 No major policy changes, continued allocation of funds in existing areas like

scrappage policy, PLI schemes, introduce next phase of FAME subsidies and
continued investment in infrastructure projects.
 Stimulus to the nascent EV sector and other green fuel may be expected along
with incentivizing R&D in the industry, to attract investments for the sectors.
Logistics
 Increased allocation towards fueling growth in manufacturing sectors (esp in

SME, MSME etc, China+1 strategy) would boost prospects for logistics players
(both domestic and EXIM)
 Improving transport infrastructure in the country (Higher allocation in ports,

roads, Bharatmala, Sagarmala, MMLPs etc.)
Capital Goods, Defense:
 Expect decent increase in capex allocation (~8-9% YoY increase expected on

a base of Rs10trln (including loan on states)) to boost domestic economy.
 Railways can see the decent increase in capex considering greater emphasis
on railway modernization, more Vande Bharat trains etc.
 Power T&D: capex announcement towards HVDC corridors and enhancing

electrical equipment manufacturing ecosystem amid surge in power demand.
 Defense: Overall, 5-7% increase can be expected in defense capital outlay,

Further increase of indigenous components, focus on emerging defense
technologies like drones, UAVs and electronic warfare systems.
 Energy Transition: Expected schemes surrounding energy transition and

renewable/clean/green energy component manufacturing
 Overall, focus to further enhance localization push in manufacturing sectors

with import substitute potential to boost industrial/ private capex to continue.
January 10, 2024 11

India Strategy
Real Estate & Building Materials
 Increase home loan interest rate rebate from Rs0.2mn to Rs0.5mn
 Housing to be given industry status, and provide single window clearance, tax
breaks, and GST rationalization in the budget.
 Release government land for affordable and mid income housing.
 Modify affordable housing limit to Rs10mn from current level of Rs4.5mn
Healthcare
 To increase government spending towards healthcare as % of GDP
 Expansion of Ayushman Bharat Scheme to more sections of society
 Increase in tax deductions on preventive health checkups
Consumers - Staples/Durable/ retail
 Individual Tax rate relief and increase in threshold limit for the highest tax rate
can increase disposable income and boost consumer durables demand
 Moderate increase in excise duty on cigarettes
 Increased incentives for cold chain and food processing
Oil & Gas/ Specialty chemicals
 Thrust on asset monetization of PSUs
 Schemes for encouraging green energy investment
 PLI Scheme in Specialty chemicals
Metals
 safeguard duties or reinstating old anti-dumping measures for domestic steel

and stainless steel players to counter cheap imports from China/ Indonesia.
 PLI.2 scheme for steel sector
 Facilitation for faster availability of mines of critical minerals
 Facilitation for easier availability of volatile raw materials such as coking coal
January 10, 2024 12

India Strategy
US economy resilient – watch out for interest

rates in 2H24
 Declining Inflation: Major economies are witnessing a sharp fall in headline
inflation. US, CPI dropped to 3.1% in November, led by a decrease in energy
prices. The Eurozone experienced a similar trend with CPI falling to 2.4%.
 Monetary Policy Stance: The Federal Reserve signaled a dovish approach,

suggesting a 75bps rate cut, with projections indicating a federal funds rate of
4.6% by year-end 2024. The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of
England (BoE) indicated a more cautious approach, pushing back against
immediate rate cuts and maintaining a restrictive monetary policy into 2024.
 US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate: US nonfarm payrolls

exceeded expectations, led by healthcare services and the resolution of
strikes. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.7% in November, indicating a
resilient labor market. Average hourly earnings grew at a rapid pace, while
retail sales surged to 4.1% YoY in Nov, highlighting robust consumer activity.
 Europe continues to Contract in Business Activity: The Eurozone's

economy continued to contract, with PMI indicators remaining in the
contractionary zone. Retail sales and industrial production also declined,
reflecting persistent economic challenges.
 UK - Stagnant GDP and Struggling Sectors: The UK's economy stagnated

in Q3, with significant contractions in various sectors. Inflation rates dropped,
but the Bank of England maintained its policy rate, indicating ongoing economic
challenges.
January 10, 2024 13

India Strategy
Nifty Valuation
Weight- Weight-
FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
age (%) age (%)
Banking & Fin. 35.2 Cem ent 1.2
PER (x) 21.8 19.1 17.2 14.7 PER (x) 56.4 37.2 30.3 26.0
PAT Grow th (%) 46.7 14.1 11.1 16.9 PAT Grow th (%) (31.0) 51.8 22.8 16.6
Technology 13.4 Others 0.8

PER (x) 28.6 27.5 24.2 21.6 PER (x) 19.9 16.2 13.8 12.9
PAT Grow th (%) 6.3 4.0 13.6 12.0 PAT Grow th (%) (9.6) 22.7 17.1 7.5
Oil & Gas 10.7 Ports & Logistics 0.9

PER (x) 22.7 13.4 14.9 14.3 PER (x) 48.7 30.9 25.9 21.9
PAT Grow th (%) (23.6) 69.7 (10.5) 4.4 PAT Grow th (%) 8.7 57.8 19.3 18.3
Consum er 12.4 Agro Chem icals 0.3

PER (x) 55.1 49.0 44.3 40.4 PER (x) 11.3 15.0 11.5 10.1
PAT Grow th (%) 22.8 12.3 10.8 9.6 PAT Grow th (%) (4.7) (24.7) 30.3 14.2
Auto 6.4
PER (x) 42.7 19.6 17.4 16.2 Nifty as on Jan 9 21,513
PAT Grow th (%) 292.7 118.0 12.6 7.7
EPS (Rs) - Free Float 865.4 1,092.3 1,221.6 1,384.0
Eng. & Pow er 7.2 Growth (%) 13.4 26.2 11.8 13.3
PER (x) 24.0 21.2 18.8 17.2 PER (x) 24.9 19.7 17.6 15.5
PAT Grow th (%) 0.6 13.6 12.6 9.4
EPS (Rs) - Free Float - Nifty Cons. 865.4 1,065.3 1,223.2 1,409.2
Pharm a 4.1 Var. (PLe v/s Cons.) (%) - 2.5 (0.1) (1.8)
PER (x) 38.0 33.7 28.8 25.5
PAT Grow th (%) 53.5 12.7 17.0 12.9
Sensex as on Jan 9 71,355
Metals 3.8
PER (x) 14.5 13.3 10.7 9.4 EPS (Rs) - Free Float 2,744.0 3,152.5 3,575.1 4,093.6
PAT Grow th (%) (45.5) 8.8 25.0 13.0 Growth (%) 14.8 14.9 13.4 14.5
PER (x) 26.0 22.6 20.0 17.4
Telecom 2.8
PER (x) 82.3 87.0 28.0 22.1 EPS (Rs) - Free Float - Sensex Cons. 2,744.0 3,308.0 3,869.1 4,504.4
PAT Grow th (%) 76.2 (5.4) 210.8 26.6 Var. (PLe v/s Cons.) (%) - (4.7) (7.6) (9.1)
Source: Company Data, PL

Note: Sector Weightages are updated as on January 10, 2024
FY25 NIFTY EPS; IT services, Telecom, Metals and healthcare to led growth
PL Estimate % Gr.
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Agro Chemicals 5.3 6.2 6.1 4.8 6.3 7.2 17.1% -1.3% -21.4% 30.3% 14.2%
Auto 21.6 9.5 37.2 84.2 94.4 101.5 -55.9% 291.4% 126.1% 12.2% 7.5%
BFSI 208.4 258.8 374.4 445.0 495.3 580.1 24.2% 44.7% 18.9% 11.3% 17.1%
Cement 5.6 7.0 5.0 7.9 9.7 11.3 24.0% -28.6% 58.3% 22.8% 16.6%
Consumer 42.6 44.7 57.2 66.9 73.9 80.8 4.7% 28.0% 17.0% 10.4% 9.3%
Eng. & Power 45.2 56.9 60.8 73.8 83.7 92.6 25.9% 6.9% 21.3% 13.4% 10.6%
Healthcare 13.7 16.6 25.8 30.8 35.7 40.0 20.7% 55.8% 19.5% 15.7% 12.2%
Metals 39.7 119.5 59.3 64.4 85.1 97.4 200.6% -50.3% 8.6% 32.1% 14.4%
Oil & Gas 108.0 122.5 103.1 166.6 151.3 160.4 13.4% -15.8% 61.6% -9.2% 6.1%
Others 6.8 10.5 10.8 12.0 14.1 15.2 55.0% 3.2% 11.5% 17.1% 7.5%
Ports & Logistics 4.4 3.9 4.4 7.3 8.7 10.3 -9.8% 12.5% 64.6% 19.3% 18.3%
Technology 95.2 102.4 112.7 120.3 137.7 154.7 7.6% 10.1% 6.7% 14.5% 12.3%
Telecom -69.4 4.6 8.4 8.3 25.8 32.6 -106.6% 82.4% -1.3% 210.8% 26.6%
Nifty 527.0 762.9 865.4 1,092.3 1,221.6 1,384.0 44.8% 13.4% 26.2% 11.8% 13.3%
Source: PL
January 10, 2024 14

India Strategy
Nifty 1-year forward PE, 10.8% discount to 10-year average
28.0
26.0
24.0 10 year Avg.
22.0 20.3 20.3x 20.6
20.0 20.3
18.0 18.6
18.6 18.1
16.0
16.6
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-22
May-23
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-24
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Source: PL
NIFTY EPS trend – last 2 years buck the trend of downgrades
FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
1,500 1384
1,300 1,218
1,128 1,086
1,100 979 969
891
900
785 846 865
700 787 763
659 662 667 774
500
300
May-20
May-21
May-23
May-22
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-23
Jan-24
Mar-20
Jan-22
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-21
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-23
Jul-22
Nov-21
Nov-22
Nov-23
Nov-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-20
Sep-23
Source: PL
January 10, 2024 15

India Strategy
Model Portfolio
Nifty PL
Model Portfolio v/s Nifty Mcap
Sectors Weightage Weightage Weights
(Rs bn)
Model (%) (%)
Returns Nifty Perf.
Portfolio Automobiles 6.4 5.8 Underweight
Mahindra & Mahindra 2,027 1.5 1.8
Since
108.81% 100.18% 8.63% Maruti Suzuki 3,152 1.4 2.0
Nov'18
Tata Motors 2,928 1.5 2.0
Since
Last 8.49% 8.90% -0.41% Banks 30.5 32.4 Overweight
Report Axis Bank 3,444 3.3 3.4
Since HDFC Bank 12,531 13.3 13.5
22.8% 21.68% 1.08%
Apr’23 ICICI Bank 6,873 7.3 9.5
Kotak Mahindra Bank 3,631 2.9 3.2
Source: PL State Bank Of India 5,581 2.6 2.8
Cement 1.2 0.5 Underweight

UltraTech Cement 2,858 1.2 0.5
Construction & Engineering 7.2 13.0 Overweight

ABB 1,043 3.0
Bharat Electronics 1,350 1.0
Carborandum Universal 217 1.0
Larsen & Toubro 4,888 4.4 4.0
Siemens 1,493 4.0
Consumer 12.4 9.1 Underweight

Britannia Industries 1,234 0.7 0.6
Avenue Supermarts 2,480 1.5
Hindustan Unilever 6,061 2.5 1.5
ITC 5,796 4.4 2.0
Nestle India 2,500 1.0 1.3
Titan Company 3,279 1.6 2.3
Healthcare 4.1 6.9 Overweight

Apollo Hospitals Enterprises 834 0.6 0.7
Cipla 1,041 0.7 1.4
Max Healthcare 696.02 3.0
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries 3,177 1.5 1.8
IT 13.4 13.4 Equalweight

Infosys 6,347 5.8 5.8
Larsen & Toubro Infotech 1,749.02 0.7 1.5
L&T Technology 555 2.1
Tata Consultancy Services 13,502 4.0 4.0
Metals 3.8 2.0 Underweight

Hindalco Industries 1,294 0.9 1.2
Jindal Steel & Power 743 0.8
Diversified Financials 4.7 5.3 Overweight

Bajaj Finance 4,775 2.3 2.3
HDFC AMC 729 3.0
Oil & Gas 10.7 9.3 Underweight

Reliance Industries 17,460 9.31 9.3
Telecom 2.8 2.3 Underweight

Bharti Airtel 6,251 2.8 2.3
Others 2.9 - NA
Cash -
PL Model Portfolio has outperformed NIFTY by 8.63% since Nov 2018, 1.08%
since April 23 and underperformed by 0.4% since last strategy report
January 10, 2024 16

India Strategy
 Banks: Overweight: We retain overweight on Banks given strong credit

growth, robust asset quality even as NIM compression will curtail FY24 PAT
growth. We believe that frontline banks will catch up after underperformance
from quite some time. We increase weight on ICICI bank and Kotak Mahindra
Bank by 20bps. We remain overweight on HDFC Bank and SBI.
 Diversified financials: We turn overweight on diversified financials as we

increase weight behind HDFC AMC by 200bps even as we remove HDFC Life
from model portfolio as of now.
 Capital Goods – Overweight: We remain overweight on capital goods

(580bps now to 13pc) given strong growth visibility over next 3-5 years with no
changes in our model portfolio. We increase our weights significantly on
Siemens, L&T and ABB being broad based plays.
 Healthcare: Over weight: We retain overweight on Sun Pharma and Cipla in

Pharma segment give strong growth traction. We cut weight on Apollo hospitals
by 30bps but are increasing weight on Max Healthcare by 70bps to 3pc given
strong performance and expected benefits from brownfield expansion from
2H25 and recent acquisition of Sahara Hospital in Lucknow.
 Consumer: underweight: We further cut weight by 240bps to 9.1pc. we

reduce weights on Avenue Supermarts, HUL and Titan by 70,100 and 40bps.
Delayed rural recovery and rising competition from regional players will make
it difficult for most staple players to accelerate growth. We reduce weights on
Titan given sharp rally in past one quarter. We reduce weight on Avenue
Supermarts given slower store openings, however long term positive stance
remains intact.
 IT services: Equal weight: we turn equal weight on IT given delayed recovery

in US and Europe. We believe emerging segments like EDS, ERP, Data
Analytics, Digital, Artificial intelligence and supply chain etc. will drive growth.
We increase weight on LTTS and LTI by 30bps and 20bps even as we turn
equal weight on TCS and Infy.
 Automobiles: Underweight: We turn underweight on Auto after being

overweight during entire rally. Although we remain constructive on the sector,
we believe incremental gains will come at more measured pace. we remove
Ashok Leyland from model portfolio and retain weight on Maruti and M&M.
However, we are increasing overweight on TAMO given strong traction in
domestic PV (portfolio re-fresh) and JLR.
 Metals – we retain underweight on metals with overweight on Hindalco and

JSPL. we are removing Tata Steel from model portfolio post sharp rally recently
and expected softness in numbers for ferrous companies in near term.
 Oil and Gas: Underweight; we remain underweight and retain allocation on

Reliance only in this universe given strong refining margins and sustained
traction in Telecom and Retail businesses.
 Telecom: we retain Bharti Airtel in our model portfolio being a structural play
on rising data usage in Ecom, Infotainment etc. and expect sustained growth
and cash flows in coming years
January 10, 2024 17

India Strategy
Conviction Picks Changes
We are adding Astral, Jupiter Life Line Hospitals, Safari Industries (India), Triveni
Turbine high conviction picks. We are removing Navin Fluorine International,
Kajaria Ceramics from high conviction list and Deepak Nitrite, Divi’s Laboratories
from Contra Sell.
Astral: We have a high conviction BUY on ASTRAL with DCF based TP of Rs1983
(implied 50x FY26E). ASTRAL is a consistent quality performer and we believe that
it is a compounding story given its 1) strong market presence in pipe & fittings, 2)
strong brand positioning with distribution network, 3) new product launches to
continuously increase addressable markets (currently Rs 1520bn), and 4) increase
in EBITDA margin guidance to 17-18% with improvement in volume and softening
of RM prices in FY24-25. We est. Sales/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of
17.7%/24.7%/32.8% over FY23-26E.
Jupiter Life Line Hospitals: JLHL’s operational efficiency has been strong in
competitive markets of MMR. Given strategic greenfield expansions in densely
populated micro-markets of western regions, scale up in occupancy and improving
margins, business is expected to aid growth momentum over the medium term in
our view. Further recent rate revision in insurance contracts for its Pune unit along
with insurance tie-ups in Indore unit should aid ARPOB and occupancy. We value
the stock at 22x EV/EBITDA on FY26E and recommend ‘BUY’ rating with a TP of
Rs 1,310/share.
Safari Industries: Safari has shown robust performance with Sales/EBITDA CAGR
of 21%/40% respectively over FY19-23. Expansion of distribution channel,
introduction of new SKUs and entry into new product categories has resulted in
consistent rise of market share. Additional capacity of 125,000 units per month is
likely to further cushion GM as it would reduce reliance on outsourcing. Safari has
also outlined a capex plan of Rs2.15bn which aims to double its HL capacity. We
expect GM of 45.1% in FY24E and FY25E and 45.5% in FY26E, as full benefits of
owning the value chain will start getting reflected over next few months, and share
of indigenous manufacturing rises. We expect revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 24%/30%
respectively over FY23-26E backed by new product launches and channel
expansion and a sales/PAT CAGR of 24%/31% over FY23-FY26E. Maintain BUY
with a TP of Rs2,375.
Triveni Turbine: We believe Triveni’s prospects continue to remain strong due to

1) healthy domestic demand outlook (enquiry pipeline up 100% YoY in H1FY24)
across Sugar, Distilleries, Food Processing, Paper & Pulp, Chemicals, and Waste
Heat Recovery, 2) growing share of higher margin exports (with Triveni increasing
its local footprint in international markets) and aftermarket sales (driven by
refurbishment sales with deeper penetration in export geographies), 3) large
potential opportunities in 30-100MW turbines and API drive turbines, and 4) robust
order book with strong inflows across its businesses. We expect Triveni to report
Revenue/Adj. PAT CAGR of 26.4%/32.3% over FY23-26E. We have an
‘Accumulate’ rating on the stock with a TP of Rs450, valuing it at a PE of 35x Sep-
25E.
January 10, 2024 18

India Strategy
High Conviction Picks

CMP Mcap Mcap Revenue Gr. (%) Earnings Gr. (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%)* PER (x) P/BV (x)*
TP (Rs) Upside
(Rs.) (Rs bn) (US$ m) 2024E 2025E 2024E 2025E 2024E 2025E 2024E 2025E 2024E 2025E 2024E 2025E
Large Cap
ABB India 4,920 4,984 1.3% 1,042.6 12,544 23.5 21.4 55.3 18.0 22.4 22.5 24.8 25.7 87.0 73.7 18.0 15.4
Avenue Supermarts 3,811 4,484 17.7% 2,470.4 29,720 18.1 22.1 6.4 26.7 14.6 15.9 19.2 20.9 97.7 77.1 13.3 11.3
HDFC Bank 1,651 2,025 22.7% 12,513.8 1,50,551 8.8 17.9 9.6 12.3 15.3 15.2 1.8 1.8 20.1 17.9 3.0 2.6
Hindalco Industries 576 673 16.9% 1,278.6 15,383 (0.4) 7.9 (9.3) 25.6 9.2 10.6 10.3 12.1 14.0 11.1 1.2 1.1
ICICI Bank 980 1,280 30.6% 6,862.3 82,559 18.5 11.3 22.4 9.1 18.3 17.2 2.3 2.1 17.5 16.1 3.0 2.6
Maruti Suzuki 10,024 12,100 20.7% 3,150.8 37,907 18.5 9.3 50.3 12.0 17.7 16.2 18.1 17.3 25.0 22.3 3.8 3.4
Max Healthcare Institute 716 675 -5.8% 695.4 8,366 16.7 17.5 2.0 15.2 16.0 16.1 17.4 18.3 49.9 43.3 7.5 6.5
Reliance Industries 2,581 2,718 5.3% 17,459.7 2,10,054 5.9 5.2 (1.1) 8.8 7.7 7.8 9.0 9.2 26.5 24.3 2.0 1.8
Siemens 4,193 4,359 3.9% 1,492.9 17,960 21.2 11.3 55.5 13.9 15.9 16.1 17.5 18.1 76.1 66.8 11.4 10.2
Mid / Small Caps
Astral Ltd. 1,822 1,983 8.8% 490.2 5,897 16.7 18.1 42.5 27.7 20.1 21.2 26.3 27.6 75.0 58.8 13.8 11.3
Can Fin Homes 775 900 16.1% 103.2 1,242 24.8 10.3 18.1 15.3 18.4 17.9 2.1 2.0 14.1 12.2 2.4 2.0
Eris Lifesciences 915 1,050 14.7% 124.5 1,497 19.4 17.6 5.4 9.6 17.1 16.5 16.5 19.0 30.9 28.2 5.0 4.4
Jupiter Life Line Hospitals 1,130 1,310 15.9% 74.1 891 15.9 19.3 95.5 27.4 23.2 18.2 17.4 18.4 44.8 35.2 7.0 5.9
Navneet Education 156 206 32.6% 35.2 423 8.2 9.9 25.0 44.2 14.1 17.7 18.1 20.7 20.0 13.9 2.6 2.3
R R Kabel 1,582 1,872 18.3% 178.5 2,148 23.7 25.2 37.7 39.4 19.7 21.3 22.5 24.9 53.9 38.7 9.2 7.4
Safari Industries (India) 1,914 2,375 24.1% 90.8 1,092 28.2 20.5 (31.1) 26.6 33.9 31.4 35.0 34.3 52.6 41.6 15.3 11.4
Sunteck Realty 459 565 23.1% 64.5 776 202.5 46.1 12,199.4 115.2 6.1 12.0 7.7 13.9 37.2 17.3 2.2 2.0
Triveni Turbine 402 450 12.1% 127.7 1,536 30.5 25.6 34.5 38.4 31.1 34.7 35.4 40.1 48.5 35.0 13.7 10.9
Contra BUY
Restaurant Brands Asia 115 145 26.7% 56.7 682 30.7 27.7 NA NA (2.7) (1.0) 1.6 4.7 (110.9) (300.2) 3.1 3.1
Added: Astral, Jupiter Life Line Hospitals, Safari Industries (India), Triveni Turbine
Removed: Navin Fluorine International, Kajaria Ceramics, Deepak Nitrite, Divi's Laboratories
July 7, 2023 19
India Strategy
Current Valuations in 60% of Nifty50 companies are lower than 2022 levels
Current
12 Month Forward Average PE 2009-11 2011-13 2013-16 2016-20 2021 2022 2023
Valuations*
Nifty Index 16.3 14.7 18.8 22.0 18.5 20.4 17.8 18.1
Eicher Motors Ltd 3.0 2.8 4.2 13.4 49.0 113.7 NA NA
Adani Enterprises 28.8 18.5 18.3 18.1 17.7 31.2 24.9 26.3
Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd 24.5 29.9 58.6 81.2 53.3 66.5 67.8 59.6
Apollo Hospital Enterprises 21.5 30.1 39.9 51.7 64.5 82.7 62.4 55.6
Asian Paints Ltd 13.1 9.9 14.0 72.8 16.2 20.2 15.3 12.9
Axis Bank Ltd 9.7 15.1 17.5 17.7 16.3 17.4 16.3 25.6
Bajaj Auto Ltd 5.9 6.7 13.3 33.9 43.2 48.6 32.5 26.8
Bajaj Finance Ltd 5.5 6.6 9.9 26.9 24.7 43.2 33.2 28.6
Bajaj Finserv Ltd 15.6 13.7 8.6 11.0 5.8 15.3 8.5 7.1
Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd 20.9 45.4 29.3 72.6 -0.3 57.3 42.7 34.0
Bharti Airtel Ltd 28.8 23.3 28.3 47.3 50.3 46.9 44.1 52.5
Britannia Industries Ltd 23.5 19.3 34.3 29.8 23.8 28.3 24.7 24.3
Cipla Ltd/India 2.9 13.7 15.8 14.2 5.5 4.3 4.8 9.2
Coal India Ltd 19.3 18.8 26.5 25.7 32.4 51.4 53.3 50.1
Divi's Laboratories 27.6 16.8 26.8 30.2 35.0 24.3 15.1 18.4
Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd 7.0 12.0 NA 34.7 38.9 31.9 25.4 25.5
Grasim Industries Ltd 6.0 8.2 19.1 20.0 8.8 14.5 14.0 13.1
HCL Technologies Ltd 13.3 9.0 14.1 12.9 15.7 21.3 18.4 23.1
HDFC Bank Ltd 20.7 18.5 18.0 21.5 19.0 19.9 19.5 20.9
HDFC Life Insurance Co. Ltd. NA NA - 42.8 91.2 103.0 78.2 71.2
Hero MotoCorp Ltd 16.0 17.5 17.4 18.0 21.1 20.4 15.6 19.4
Hindalco Industries Ltd 9.9 9.0 17.2 9.9 5.3 8.6 9.4 11.6
Hindustan Unilever Ltd 24.3 25.2 37.1 50.1 61.7 60.2 56.3 51.6
ICICI Bank Ltd 19.5 13.6 15.0 30.5 15.0 17.7 16.5 16.6
IndusInd Bank Ltd 12.3 14.4 17.6 26.4 13.5 13.0 10.0 12.2
Infosys Ltd 20.5 16.0 16.5 16.4 20.4 29.9 26.0 23.4
ITC Ltd 20.5 24.2 32.3 25.6 16.8 17.1 19.9 25.6
JSW Steel Ltd 16.2 25.2 -38.4 10.2 4.8 15.7 22.6 13.6
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd 17.6 18.6 25.9 29.1 27.4 27.1 24.9 24.1
Larsen & Toubro Ltd 20.9 18.0 26.2 19.8 15.3 24.7 22.3 30.7
LTIMindtree NA NA NA 14.0 22.5 38.5 29.5 31.4
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd 10.5 11.4 18.6 47.2 17.1 11.3 12.0 15.5
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 17.2 15.9 17.5 31.9 48.5 38.1 25.9 23.2
Nestle India Ltd 27.6 38.0 61.6 47.9 72.4 65.7 56.0 65.4
NTPC Ltd 17.9 11.9 10.8 10.7 5.9 7.2 8.6 14.5
Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd 10.8 9.2 17.1 10.4 3.6 4.3 4.4 5.6
Power Grid Corp of India Ltd 17.6 12.5 11.5 10.5 6.6 8.1 10.1 14.2
Reliance Industries Ltd 13.5 10.5 9.4 13.4 20.5 21.9 22.2 21.3
SBI Life Insurance Co. NA NA - 32.4 55.9 68.3 64.7 66.4
State Bank of India 11.9 8.9 25.1 200.4 7.2 8.9 8.1 8.6
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd 18.1 20.6 37.2 42.0 40.7 32.8 25.5 30.3
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd 16.3 16.9 20.1 20.7 26.3 32.0 27.4 26.8
Tata Consumer Products 19.9 18.1 3.6 32.6 50.4 65.2 54.0 62.6
Tata Motors Ltd 5.3 6.5 11.6 -0.8 -5.1 -13.5 20.7 14.2
Tata Steel Ltd -6.7 -1,397.8 -13.6 7.5 2.5 7.2 17.0 12.6
Tech Mahindra Ltd 12.9 7.2 15.6 13.4 13.4 23.0 24.0 22.6
Titan Co Ltd 21.2 29.4 38.8 56.5 68.9 67.8 61.7 73.6
UltraTech Cement Ltd 13.7 16.1 28.4 35.4 20.5 33.5 30.1 31.5
UPL Ltd 13.1 8.1 13.5 20.6 11.0 16.0 17.4 11.0
Wipro Ltd 15.6 13.2 15.1 14.8 14.9 27.7 20.4 19.8
Source: PL * as of January 10, 2024
January 10, 2024 20

India Strategy
Strong fund flows fire up Indian markets

 NIFTY has shown a smart upmove of 8.7% in past 6 weeks given 1) Hopes of
interest rate cuts in US in 2024 2) strong FII flows and 3) rising probability of
NDA retaining power in 2024 elections after strong show in state elections.
Strong economic growth, range bond crude prices, steady DII flows seem
positive and provide support to markets.
 Oil and Gas and Power have been the best performing sectors. Realty, Metals
and Capital Goods have also seen a strong rally. Banks, IT, Consumer and
Durables have been underperformers. Auto and Metals have also seen strong
bounce back led by revival of 2W demand and strong prices.
 BSE small cap and Mid-cap index have moved up by 51.5/47.3% in the last 12
months which is significantly higher than Sensex/ Nifty and BSE 100.however
we have seen returns converge in past 3 months as both large and mid-cap
indices have broadly moved in tandem.
 FII outflows have been Rs1768bn which has seen a sharp Rs758bn increase
in the past 6 weeks, DII inflows remain steady and have increased by 180bn
during the same period.
India up 7.1% in past 3 months, 4th best performing market
20.0 CHG_PCT_3M
15.0
15.0 12.1
9.4 9.9 9.9
10.0 6.6 6.8
6.4
4.0
5.0 2.6
-
(0.9)
(5.0)
(5.9)
(10.0) (8.3)
Australia
S.Korea
Germany
Russia
USA
China
FTSE
Japan
S&P
India
Indonesia
Brazil
Hong Kong
Source: PL
Oil & Gas, Power lead rally in past quarter, IT, Banks drag
CHG_PCT_3M CHG_PCT_6M
62.5
70.0
50.2
60.0
41.5
39.1
36.2
50.0
28.4
26.9
25.4
24.3
40.0
(%)
18.9
18.4
17.9
17.5
17.1
16.3
15.7
30.0
9.5
9.5
8.4
7.4
20.0
5.2
6.6
10.0
-
Source: PL
January 10, 2024 21

(Rs bn)
-1,500
-1,000
-500
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Source: PL
-569
2012 1,293
-735
January 10, 2024

2013 1,113
-303
2014 974
676
2015 184
371
DII Net Cash

2016 188
908
2017 529
1,094
2018 -342
422
2019 1,002
FII Net Cash

-362
2020 1,728
(Rs bn) 946 (%)
2021 258
2,767
-
2022-1,256
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
-
-500
-1,500
-1,000
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1,846
Source: PL
Source: PL
2023 1,768
2009 8.0
Strong FII flows power markets, DII flows sustain

Sen sex 9.2
2010 17.2% 18.7
-24.9% (Rs bn)
2011
-
9.4
-500
-1,500
-1,000
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2012
Nifty 11.3
Source: PL
27.4%
CHG_PCT_3M
2013 5.9% 2009 48 20.3
2014 2010 489

2011 415 10.5
31.4%
FII Net Cash

2015 -4.1% BSE -100 12.9
2012 362
22.1
2016 2.8% 2013 -537
2017 2014 1,592
CHG_PCT_6M
28.1% 12.2
Broad based rally across segments
2015 469 BSE -500

2018 4.1% 17.1
2016 -443 26.1
2019 11.5%
% Nifty Change
2017 1,485
NIFTY trend directly correlated to FII flows

2020 14.8% 2018 -465 17.8
3Q FII Debt inflows at Rs391bn
2019 241 BSE S mal l-Ca p 32.3

2021 23.8%
51.5
CHG_PCT_1YR
2020 -1,034
2022 2.7%
2021 -105
2023 19.4% 2022 -158 18.0
BSE Mid-Cap 29.0
2023 699
47.3
Q3FY24 524
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
India Strategy
22
India Strategy
High Frequency indicators stay strong
IIP registered a healthy growth of 11.7% in Oct’23 PMI Manu. Falls to 18-month low in Dec’23
25 IIP Composite PMI Manufacturing PMI Services
20 65
58.9 57.8 59
15
11.7 60 57.5 58.4 59
10.3 54
10 55 58.7
13.0 12.6 5.1 54.9 54.9
48.1
5 1.2 3.3 50 51.5
6.2
0 45
1.0 -0.7 40 41.2
-5
-10
35
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Feb-21
Feb-22
Feb-23
Apr-21
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Aug-21
Aug-22
Aug-23
Oct-21
Apr -22
Oct-22
Apr -23
Oct-23
Aug -21
Aug -22
Aug -23
Dec-21
Dec-22
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Feb-22
Feb-23
Source: Ministry of commerce, PL Source: Ministry of commerce, PL
IIP has witnessed a 16-month high growth in Oct’23 at 11.7%; Led by Electricity and Mining
Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
General -4.1 7.6 5.1 5.8 6.0 1.9 4.5 5.3 3.8 6.0 10.3 6.2 11.7
Mining 2.6 9.7 10.1 9.0 4.8 6.8 5.1 6.4 7.6 10.7 12.3 11.5 13.1
Manufacturing -5.8 6.7 3.6 4.5 5.9 1.5 5.2 5.8 3.1 5.0 9.3 4.9 10.4
Electricity 1.2 12.7 10.4 12.7 8.2 -1.6 -1.1 0.9 4.2 8.0 15.3 9.9 20.4
Use-Based
Basic goods 2.1 4.8 8.5 9.8 7.0 3.3 1.9 3.6 5.3 7.6 12.4 8.0 11.4
Intermediate goods -2.3 3.5 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.8 0.4 3.0 4.6 2.4 6.8 6.1 9.7
Capital goods -2.9 20.7 7.8 10.5 11.0 10.0 4.6 8.1 2.0 4.5 13.1 8.4 22.6
Infra/Construction Goods 1.7 14.3 11.0 11.3 9.0 7.2 15.0 11.3 12.9 12.4 13.5 8.9 11.3
Consumer Durables -18.1 5.0 -11.2 -8.2 -4.1 -8.0 -2.5 1.2 -6.7 -2.6 5.8 1.1 15.9
Consumer Non-durables -13.0 10.0 7.9 6.5 12.5 -1.9 10.8 8.4 0.3 7.9 9.6 3.0 8.6
Source: MOSPI, PL
GST collection in Dec’23 had a healthy YoY growth of 10% at Rs1.65t
2,000 GST Collections (Rs Bn)

1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
(Rs bn)
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
May-22
May-23
Jan-22
Jun-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Jun-23
Feb-22
Mar-22
Feb-23
Jul-22
Jul-23
Oct-22
Apr-23
Apr-22
Oct-23
Nov-22
Aug-23
Dec-23
Dec-21
Aug-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Nov-23
Source: GOI, PL
FYTD GST collection reached Rs15t in Dec’23 vs Rs13.4t last year in the corresponding period (up by 11.7%)
January 10, 2024 23

India Strategy
CSI hits 92.2 mark in Nov23, highest since covid CPI rises 69bps on 209bps higher food inflation
Consumer Confidence Index Future Expectation Index CPI Core Inflation Food Inflation
145.0 14.0
117 121 12.0 11.5
125.0 115 113 116
103 10.0 8.6
98 98 8.3 8.7
105.0 92 8.0 7.4
86 86 87 7.8 7.4 6.5
81 6.1 5.1
85.0 6.0 5.6
7.0 6.1
64 4.0 4.9 4.1
4.5 4.3
65.0 56
50 50 2.0 3.0
0.8
45.0 0.0
May-22
May-23
Jan-22
Jan-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jul-22
Jul-23
Sep-21
Nov-21
Sep-22
Nov-22
Sep-23
Nov-23
May-20
May-21
May-22
May-23
Feb-20
Feb-21
Feb-22
Feb-23
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Nov-23
Aug-20
Aug-21
Aug-22
Aug-23
Source: CMIE, PL Source: MOSPI, PL
CPI bounces to 5.6% in Nov’23, as food inflation surges to 8.7% and Fuel & light dropped 0.8% YoY
Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Weight 5.9 5.7 6.5 6.4 5.7 4.7 4.3 4.9 7.4 6.8 5.0 4.9 5.6
Food, Beverages and Tobacco 45.9 5.1 4.6 6.2 6.3 5.1 4.2 3.3 4.7 10.6 9.2 6.3 6.3 8.0
Pan Tobacco and Intoxicants 2.4 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.8
Clothing and Footwear 6.5 9.8 9.6 9.1 8.8 8.2 7.5 6.6 6.1 5.6 5.2 4.6 4.3 3.9
Housing 10.1 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.6
Fuel and Light 6.8 10.6 10.9 10.8 9.9 8.8 5.5 4.7 3.9 3.7 4.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8
Miscellaneous 28.3 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.1 5.8 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.4
Consumer Food Price Index 39.1 4.7 4.2 6.0 6.0 4.8 3.8 3.0 4.5 11.5 9.9 6.6 6.6 8.7
Source: MOSPI, PL
Merchandise trade deficit reverted in Nov’23 at 20.9bn after a surge in Oct; marginal decline in import and export
Merchandise Trade
Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23
(USD bn)
Exports 34.9 38.1 35.8 37.0 41.4 34.7 35.0 34.3 34.5 34.5 34.4 33.5 33.9
YoY % 10% -3% 2% 0% -7% -12% -10% -19% -10% -7% -3% 6% -3%
Imports 57.0 61.3 52.2 53.2 60.0 49.9 57.0 53.1 53.0 58.6 53.8 63.5 54.5
YoY % 7% 2% -1% -5% -5% -14% -7% -18% -17% -5% -15% 10% -4%
- Oil 16.3 19.4 15.9 17.0 18.0 15.2 15.6 12.5 11.8 13.2 14.0 16.2 14.9
YoY % 15% 18% 29% 8% -15% -14% -6% -34% -37% -24% -20% -1% -8%
- Gold 3.4 1.2 0.8 2.6 3.4 1.1 3.7 5.0 3.5 4.9 4.1 8.5 3.9
YoY % -20% -75% -66% -45% 223% -35% -39% 82% 49% 39% 7% 131% 16%
- Non Oil Non Gold 37.3 40.7 35.5 33.7 38.6 33.6 37.7 35.6 37.6 40.5 35.7 38.8 35.6
YoY % 9% 4% -6% -5% -6% -13% -2% -17% -12% -1% -15% 3% -4%
Trade Deficit (22.1) (23.3) (16.4) (16.2) (18.6) (15.1) (22.0) (18.8) (18.5) (24.2) (19.4) (29.9) (20.6)
YoY % 4% 10% -5% -13% 1% -18% 0% -15% -27% -3% -31% 15% -7%
Source: Ministry of Commerce, PL
Service trade surplus is at 15.3bn (up 20% YoY) which led to an Overall deficit of 5.3bn
Services Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23
Exports (Receipts) 26.2 27.3 32.2 29.2 27.8 30.4 25.3 27.1 27.2 26.4 29.4 28.7 28.7
YoY % 27% 8% 49% 37% 3% 26% 1% 7% 12% 0% 1% 13% 9%
Imports (Payments) 13.4 15.6 15.8 14.6 14.1 16.5 13.5 15.9 14.9 13.9 14.9 14.3 13.4
YoY % 6% 4% 19% 12% -8% 17% -11% 1% 6% -9% -8% 6% 0%
Services balance 12.8 11.8 16.5 14.6 13.7 13.9 11.8 11.2 12.3 12.5 14.5 14.4 15.3
YoY % 59% 13% 96% 75% 18% 39% 19% 18% 21% 11% 12% 22% 20%
Source: Ministry of Commerce, PL
January 10, 2024 24

Rs/MT INR/MT
USD/bbl
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
43000
33000
53000
63000
73000
83000
Oct-20
Oct-20 Oct-20 Dec-20
Dec-20 Dec-20 Feb-21
Feb-21 Feb-21 Apr-21
57000
January 10, 2024

Apr-21 Apr-21 Jun-21
Jun-21
Source: Bloomberg, PL
Jun-21 Sep-21
Sep-21 Sep-21
Nov-21 Nov-21
Nov-21
71600
Jan-22 Jan-22
Jan-22 Mar-22
128
Mar-22
Mar-22
Steel
6639
Palm oil
May-22 May-22
78800
May-22
Jul-22
Brent Crude
Jul-22
Jul-22
Oct-22 Oct-22
Oct-22
Dec-22 Dec-22
High Frequency Indicators
4073
Dec-22
Feb-23 Feb-23
Feb-23
72
59800
Apr-23 Apr-23
Apr-23
Jun-23 Jun-23
3360
Jun-23
Aug-23 Aug-23
Aug-23
95
Nov-23 Nov-23
Crude corrected 18% at 78 from 95 USD/bbl.
Nov-23
Palm oil range bound around 3700 for last 6M

Jan-24
3707
Steel prices moving on a 6M average of 56000
Jan-24 Jan-24
78
54600
EUR/100kg (USD/MT) USD/MT
0
50
0
100
200
300
150
250
350
400
450
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000
3500
1500
2500
3000
4000
Oct-20 Oct-20
Dec-20 Oct-20 Dec-20
Feb-21 Dec-20 Feb-21
Apr-21 Feb-21 Apr-21
Jun-21 Apr-21 Jun-21
Sep-21 Jun-21 Sep-21

Sep-21
227
Nov-21 Nov-21
Nov-21
3163
Jan-22 Jan-22
Mar-22 Jan-22
Mar-22
416
Mar-22
Coal
May-22 May-22
3873
406
May-22
Aluminium
Jul-22
SMP up 20% recent lows

Jul-22 Jul-22
Oct-22 Oct-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Aluminium price range bound
Dec-22 Dec-22
232
Feb-23
278
Feb-23 Feb-23
Netherlands dairy SMP index

2598
Apr-23 Apr-23
Apr-23
Jun-23 Jun-23 Jun-23
Aug-23 Aug-23 Aug-23
212
Nov-23 Nov-23 Nov-23
Coal prices corrected 57% since Dec’22 peak
Jan-24
255
Jan-24 Jan-24
99
2192
India Strategy
25
Dem and met (MW) Rs/Quintal
0
2000
5000
8000
1000
3000
4000
6000
7000
9000
3400
4000
4400
3000
3200
3600
3800
4200
Nov-21 6513
100000
120000
240000
260000
140000
160000
180000
200000
220000
7306 Oct-20
Jan-22 6370 Nov-20 160779 Dec-20
6513
7707 Feb-21 Feb-21
January 10, 2024

Mar-22
Source: PPAC, PL
7199 Apr-21
3120
May-22 7287 May-21
Jun-21
7674 Aug-21
Aug-21
Jul-22 6633
Source: CEA, PL Research

6343 Nov-21
Nov-21 166105
Sep-22 6253 Jan-22
6986 Feb-22 Mar-22
Sugar
Nov-22 7763
7786 May-22 May-22
Jan-23 7178 Jul-22
Aug-22
Diesel ('000 Tons)

Sep-22
Mar-23 7793
3800
7818 Nov-22 187346 Dec-22

May-23 8214 Feb-23
Feb-23 Apr-23
3450
Jul-23 6889
3850
Diesel Consumption down by 3% YoY

6670 May-23 Jun-23
Sugar prices corrected 7% from the peak
Sep-23 6493 Aug-23

7635 Aug-23
4200
Oct-23
Nov-23 7528 Jan-24
Nov-23 204605
Power - Nov demand rises by 8.7% at 204.6GW

3900
Rs/Quintal
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Dec-20
2500
2700
2900
3100
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
Nov-21 2646 Feb-21

2817 Oct-20
11.7%
Jan-22 2474 Apr-21 Dec-20
Source: RBI, PL
2551 Jun-21 Feb-21
Source: PPAC, PL
5.7%
Mar-22 2909 Aug-21 Apr-21
1780
2797
May-22 3017 Oct-21 Jun-21

Dec-21 Aug-21
Jul-22 2808 Nov-21
Feb-22
Deposit growth
Jan-22
8.6%
Sep-22 2827 Apr-22

2996 Jun-22 Mar-22
2303
Wheat
Nov-22 2861 May-22

2984 Aug-22
Jan-23 2827 Oct-22 Jul-22
Petrol ('000 Tons)

Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23 3107
16.7%
Dec-22
2877 Feb-23
Feb-23
2967
May-23 3348 Apr-23

Apr-23
Credit growth
Jun-23
2163
Jul-23 2984 Jun-23

Wheat prices up by 20% since March’23
20.2%
3093 Aug-23
….. While petrol consumption up by 9.4%
Aug-23
Sep-23 3058 Oct-23
3140 Oct-23
C-D growth runs parallel with a gap of 760bps
Dec-23
12.9% 14.4%
22.1%
Nov-23 3129 Jan-24

2600
India Strategy
26
India Strategy
Railway haulage up by 8.5% YoY in Oct’23 Energy generation rises 6% in Nov’23
Railway Freight Tonnage YoY Growth - RHS Electricity Generation in India YoY Growth - RHS
150 40.0 145 175 50
129
140 35.0 165 34
119
40
117
130 30.0 155 24 20

18 30
120 25.0 145 12 131113 15
(m n tonnes)
12
(bn units)
7 8 10 20
110 20.0 6
135 1 20.55 42 2
-1 1
4
10
100 15 15.0 125
90 11 10.0 -
8678779 989 8
6 7 5.0 115
80 5 4 -10
70 2 3 4432 2 -
105 -24
-2 95 -20
60 -5.0
85 -30
Jun-22
Jun-23
Feb-22
Feb-23
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Dec-21
Dec-22
Aug-22
Aug-23
May-22
May-23
Jan-22
Jan-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jul-22
Jul-23
Nov-21
Nov-22
Nov-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
Source: Indian Railway, PL Source: CEA, PL
Nov23 Credit card transactions up 26% YoY ...spending up 40% YoY at Rs1610bn
No. of Transactions (Mn) Spends Amount (bn)
1790
321
1610
298
291
350
1490
278
2000
275
274
1451
1427
1410
264
264
260
260
1377
1376
257
256
1331
247
1297
246
1281
1269
238
236
236
1229
233
300
1190
229
224
1162
224
1152
1140
1127
1091
212
1075
1058
202
196
1500
189
250
942
895
880
863
200
1000
150
100 500
50
0 0
May-22
May-23
Jan-22
Jan-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jul-22
Jul-23
Nov-21
Nov-22
Nov-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
May-22
May-23
Jan-22
Jan-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jul-22
Jul-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
Nov-21
Nov-22
Nov-23
Source: RBI, PL Source: RBI, PL
Incremental AUM up 4% YoY FMCG sales up 3.3% YoY on improved volumes
Incremental Loan Book (HDFC+ LICHF, FMCG YoY Sales Growth

Rsbn)
1453
35.0% 31.0%
28.9%
1197
1600 30.0% 27.8%

1095
1060
1400
25.0%
1200 18.6%
855
765
762
20.0% 18.0%
665
1000
594
583
12.5%
474
800
436
15.0%
400
600 7.5% 15.6%

229
9.5%
173
10.0% 13.0%
134
400
200 5.0% 2.6%3.3%
7.2%
0 0.0%
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
Source: Company, PL Source: Company, PL
January 10, 2024 27

('000) ('000)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
20
60
80
40
120
140
100
Oct-21 139
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Nov-20 90 145
72 Nov-20 1926 Dec-21 144
88 1495
Feb-21 85 120
95 Feb-21 1791 151
Feb-22
Source: SIAM, PL
Source: SIAM, PL
1853
January 10, 2024

72
May-21 63 182
120 May-21 711
Apr-22 176
76
Aug-21 65 203
105 Aug-21 1703
128 Jun-22 194
Source: Indian Railway, PL

1914 211
Nov-21 75 Nov-21 1406
56 Aug-22 222
63
Feb-22 62 Feb-22 1414 218
84 Oct-22 230
100
2W
94
Tractors
May-22 May-22 234
107 225
67 Dec-22
Aug-22 65 Aug-22 1861 228
125
Feb-23 220
Nov 2W Sales up by 25% YoY

132 1866
Nov-22 78 Nov-22 1523 244
66
73 Apr-23 232
Feb-23 70 Feb-23 1365 266
93
87 1597 Jun-23 244
Train Traffic grew by 6% YoY in Oct’23
May-23 May-23 245

Non-suburban passenger traffic (In mn)
107
67 Aug-23 247
Nov Tractor volumes marginally up by 1%

Aug-23 62 Aug-23 1857 241
2187 Oct-23 244
Nov-23 79 Nov-23 1902
('000)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
('000)
0
200
500
600
100
300
400
Nov-21 66% 11
0
50
100
250
350
150
200
300
Nov-20 303 53%
Q1FY19 255 380 Jan-22 -17%
314 -2%
Q2FY19 285 Feb-21 317
36%
416 Mar-22
Q3FY19 259 304 84%
Source: SIAM, PL
120
Source: DGCA, PL
Q4FY19 May-21 May-22 442%

308 350
Q1FY20 220 238%
Q2FY20 186 Aug-21 283 Jul-22 94% 10
Q3FY20 211 51%
Nov-21 260 Sep-22 47%
Q4FY20 161 375 27%
Q1FY21 36 295
Feb-22 314 Nov-22 11% 12
143 465 14%
CV
Q2FY21
PV
Q3FY21 210 May-22 308

Jan-23 96%
464 57%
Q4FY21 230 Mar-23 21%
Aug-22 336
Domestic passenger traffic (in mn)
Q1FY22 122 22%

503
Q2FY22 189 339 May-23 15% 13
330
…. While PV sales is up by 4%
Q3FY22 221 Nov-22 19%

437
2QFY24 CV volumes up 4% YoY

Q4FY22 277 354 Jul-23 25% 12
Feb-23 338 23%
Q1FY23 244 498 Sep-23 18%
Q2FY23 255 325
May-23 342 11%
Q3FY23 246 481 Nov-23 9% 13
Q4FY23 296 Aug-23 378
0%
Q1FY24 232 395

YoY (%) (RHS)
Nov 23 Air traffic up 9% YoY (138L pass. YTD)
100%
300%
500%
700%
200%
400%
600%
Q2FY24 265 Nov-23 342

-100%
India Strategy
28
Source: SIAM, PL (*TATA motors only gives Quarterly numbers)
India Strategy
3QFY24: No big festival cheer
We estimate 11.8% sales growth, 11.9% growth in EBIDTA and 16.9% growth in
PBT of coverage universe. Ex oil & Gas we estimate 10.2% growth in EBIDTA and
15.1% in PBT. Auto, Capital Goods, Pharma, Metals, Building Material, HFC, and
Travel will lead growth. Chemicals, Media, Education and Telecom will be drags.
 3Q24 results show impact of a tepid festival, marriage and rural demand while
urban demand has been resilient. Demand scenario is mixed with strong
demand from upper and upper middle class while lower class seems to be
under inflationary pressure. Rural recovery has been slower due to impact of
inflation and poor monsoons in some states. Discretionary spending on travel,
tourism, Jewellery, housing, PV/UV has been good while 2W are showing signs
of revival. QSR, apparel, Durables demand however remains impacted.
 Strong volumes and benign inputs re proving strong 132bps margin expansion
in autos. Banks PBT will increase by 5.3% only due to NIM compression and
higher Opex. Capital Goods will report 16.6% sales and 20.4% PBT growth led
by govt capex and PLI. Travel companies will report 36% EBIDTA growth due
to seasonally strong quarter, rising domestic leisure travel and world cup. 24%
PBT growth in Pharma universe will be led by strong domestic formulations
and steady US demand and pricing.
 Stable RM prices and steady demand will boost build material companies.
Consumer companies will report tepid performance in most staple companies,
steady growth in jewellery while most QSR will report decline in profits.
Durables will report tepid growth except wire and cable companies. Oil and
Gas will show impact of lower refining margins. Chemicals will show impact of
tepid global demand and pricing.
PL Universe – 3QFY24E, Auto, Metals, Capital Goods, Travel lead growth; Banks, Chemicals tepid
Revenue (%) EBITDA Growth (%) EBITDA Margin (bps) PBT Growth (%) PAT Gr. (%)
YoY QoQ YoY QoQ YoY QoQ YoY QoQ YoY QoQ
Automobiles 20.2 1.4 32.4 (1.3) 132 (39) 45.0 (10.1) 34.0 (8.2)
Banks 5.5 1.2 (2.6) 3.3 (578) 142 5.3 1.3 (1.3) (8.7)
Building Material 5.8 6.1 21.1 (83.8) 194 (8,469) 29.0 4.2 28.9 5.2
Capital Goods 16.6 8.3 20.9 9.7 42 15 20.4 3.6 22.0 (0.8)
Chemicals (18.2) (4.9) (34.4) (6.3) (436) (28) (40.6) (2.9) (44.5) (8.1)
Consumer Durables 10.3 5.4 11.6 7.9 11 23 13.2 7.9 14.9 10.2
Consumer Staples 8.7 4.4 11.0 6.2 45 38 10.9 5.9 10.8 6.1
Education 9.9 19.2 (42.4) (76.0) 326 1,421 (8.4) (54.7) (54.3) (62.7)
HFCs 23.5 (3.7) 28.3 (5.9) 319 (203) 86.6 (4.9) 88.6 (5.0)
Hospitals 12.4 0.4 14.3 0.8 28 7 26.3 8.7 26.3 8.7
Media 16.9 (16.9) 2.9 (33.9) (244) (462) (52.6) (70.3) (56.2) (74.5)
Metals 3.8 (0.4) 30.5 (0.4) 241 (1) 78.7 (0.5) 121.3 (17.1)
Oil & Gas 13.2 23.5 16.6 (23.9) 28 (605) 22.5 (35.1) 17.1 (37.8)
Pharma 10.8 1.0 18.9 (0.3) 164 (31) 24.0 (3.7) 26.9 0.6
Telecom 5.8 2.3 7.8 2.0 97 (17) (25.8) (28.8) (2.6) 15.4
Travel 20.5 19.1 36.5 70.5 300 771 53.9 319.1 58.4 388.5
PL Universe 11.8 11.6 11.9 (7.9) 2bps (363)bps 16.9 (11.9) 14.1 (15.5)
PL Universe (Ex-BFSI) 12.3 12.5 18.6 (11.7) 70 bps (360)bps 23.7 (17.8) 23.3 (18.8)
PL Universe (Ex-Oil) 10.4 2.2 10.2 0.1 (6)bps (51)bps 15.1 0.2 13.1 (4.0)
Source: Company, PL
January 10, 2024 29

Q1FY19 39% Q1FY19 39% Q1FY19 39%
Q2FY19 41% Q2FY19 41% Q2FY19 41%
Q3FY19 35% Q3FY19 35% Q3FY19 35%
Q4FY19 18% Q4FY19 18% Q4FY19 18%
Q1FY20 6% Q1FY20 6% Q1FY20 6%
Q2FY20 -2% Q2FY20 -2% Q2FY20 -2%
January 10, 2024

Q3FY20 0.1% Q3FY20 0.1% Q3FY20 0.1%
Source: Company, PL
Source: Company, PL
Source: Company, PL
Q4FY20 -99.8% Q4FY20 -99.3% Q4FY20 -99.4%
Q1FY21 -82.9% Q1FY21 -51.0% Q1FY21 -34.3%
Q2FY21 -54.5% Q2FY21 -30.0% Q2FY21 -4.3%
Q3FY21 -49.0% Q3FY21 -24.8% Q3FY21 4.2%
Q4FY21 481.1% Q4FY21 54.2% Q4FY21 23.4%
Q1FY22 201.3% Q1FY22 66.8% Q1FY22 66.1%
Q2FY22 69.9% Q2FY22 28.8% Q2FY22 38.3%
All Sector PAT

Q3FY22 35.8% Q3FY22 17.1% Q3FY22 33.7%
All Sector Sales
All Sector EBITDA

Q4FY22 -14.9% Q4FY22 10.3% Q4FY22 28.3%
Q1FY23 5.3% Q1FY23 2.7% Q1FY23 49.4%
Q2FY23 -19.9% Q2FY23 -4.1% Q2FY23 31.8%
Q3FY23 -4.5% Q3FY23 4.9% Q3FY23 17.8%
Metals, chemicals drag sales growth
Q4FY23 35.7% Q4FY23 12.7% Q4FY23 11.8%

Q1FY24 73.6% Q1FY24 40.6% Q1FY24 2.2%
BFSI, Chem, Telecom, Media drag growth
BFSI, Chemicals and Media profits decline

Q2FY24 56.8% Q2FY24 37.4% Q2FY24 0.9%
Q3FY24 14.1% Q3FY24 11.9% Q3FY24 11.8%
Q1FY19 46% Q1FY19 46% Q1FY19 46%

Q2FY19 41% Q2FY19 41% Q2FY19 41%
Q3FY19 39% Q3FY19 39% Q3FY19 39%
Q4FY19 25% Q4FY19 25% Q4FY19 25%
Q1FY20 9% Q1FY20 9% Q1FY20 9%
Q2FY20 5% Q2FY20 5% Q2FY20 5%
Q3FY20 6.9% Q3FY20 6.9% Q3FY20 6.9%
Source: Company, PL
Source: Company, PL
Source: Company, PL
Q4FY20 -82.9% Q4FY20 -40.6% Q4FY20 15.3%

Q1FY21 -95.6% Q1FY21 -56.2% Q1FY21 -20.0%
Q2FY21 -63.1% Q2FY21 -36.3% Q2FY21 15.4%
Mixed demand, margins expand due to lower input costs
Q3FY21 -58.1% Q3FY21 -30.0% Q3FY21 24.9%

Q4FY21 183.4% Q4FY21 49.4% Q4FY21 38.6%
Q1FY22 814.1% Q1FY22 70.5% Q1FY22 58.4%
Q2FY22 62.1% Q2FY22 28.1% Q2FY22 26.9%
Q3FY22 25.4% Q3FY22 10.5% Q3FY22 19.3%
Q4FY22 11.6% Q4FY22 3.9% Q4FY22 18.7%
Q1FY23 18.5% Q1FY23 0.4% Q1FY23 29.4%
Auto, CG and Travel lead growth
Q2FY23 -8.5% Q2FY23 -3.5% Q2FY23 20.3%
All Sector PAT - (Ex-Oil & Gas)

All Sector Sales - (Ex-Oil & Gas)
Q3FY23 7.2% Q3FY23 6.1% Q3FY23 14.4%

All Sector EBITDA - (Ex-Oil & Gas)
Q4FY23 28.1% Q4FY23 12.3% Q4FY23 13.4%

Q1FY24 47.6% Q1FY24 28.0% Q1FY24 14.7%
Q2FY24 34.5% Q2FY24 21.2% Q2FY24 11.1%
Q3FY24 13.1% Q3FY24 10.2% Q3FY24 10.4%
Auto, B Material, CG, Travel post >20% growth
India Strategy
30
Healthcare, Auto, Travel, HFC report high growth
India Strategy
3QFY24 Results – Trading BUY & SELL Ideas
ABB India
Britannia Industries
Aurobindo Pharma
Colgate Palmolive (India)
Crompton Greaves
Consumer Electricals Deepak Nitrite
Greenpanel Industries Eicher Motors
HDFC Bank Harsha Engineers
International
Jindal Steel & Power
Hindustan Petroluem
Jupiter Life Line Hospitals
Corporation
Larsen & Toubro
Jubilant Foodworks
ONGC
National Aluminium Co.
NMDC
VIP Industries
Safari Industries (India)
Westlife Foodworld
Triveni Turbine
These are purely for tactical trades and do not reflect our long term fundamental
calls.
January 10, 2024 31

India Strategy
3QFY24 Result Snapshot

Revenue EBITDA PAT
(Rs mn) YoY gr. QoQ gr. YoY gr. QoQ gr. YoY gr. QoQ gr. Remarks
Q3FY24 Q3FY23 Q2FY24 Q3FY24 Q3FY23 Q2FY24 Q3FY24 Q3FY23 Q2FY24
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Automobiles
Ashok Leyland 91,233 90,297 1.0 96,380 -5.3 9,762 7,973 22.4 10,798 -9.6 5,102 3,569 43.0 5,758 -11.4
Bajaj Auto 119,739 93,151 28.5 107,773 11.1 22,222 17,768 25.1 21,329 4.2 18,792 14,914 26.0 18,361 2.3
In 3QFY24, auto industry witnessed overall
Bharat Forge 40,430 33,534 20.6 37,743 7.1 7,101 4,326 64.1 6,224 14.1 3,182 759 319.2 2,066 54.0 strong double digit volumes of 17% on the back
of strong growth in domestic 2Ws and 3Ws. For
CEAT 28,908 27,272 6.0 30,533 -5.3 3,671 2,376 54.5 4,561 -19.5 1,276 414 208.3 2,021 -36.9
our OEM coverage universe, we expect (1)
Eicher Motors 40,748 37,210 9.5 41,145 -1.0 9,576 8,572 11.7 10,872 -11.9 8,845 7,408 19.4 10,163 -13.0 aggregate revenue to grow by +20% YoY (incl
JLR; +16% excl JLR) owing to sharp rise in
Endurance Technologies 26,106 20,952 24.6 25,450 2.6 3,484 2,395 45.4 3,183 9.4 1,887 1,082 74.3 1,546 22.1
volumes plus better mix and (2) EBITDA margin
Exide Industries 39,239 34,121 15.0 41,067 -4.4 4,630 4,010 15.5 4,831 -4.2 2,645 2,232 18.5 2,870 -7.8 to expand ~150bps YoY (incl JLR) led by lower
commodity cost and superior product mix.
Hero Motocorp 98,322 80,310 22.4 94,454 4.1 13,568 9,241 46.8 13,283 2.1 10,025 7,111 41.0 10,538 -4.9
Commodity costs to remain benign and will
Mahindra & Mahindra 260,021 216,537 20.1 243,099 7.0 35,493 28,142 26.1 30,660 15.8 27,510 21,569 27.5 34,519 -20.3 continue to aid margins in the coming quarters
as prices were largely stable or declined
Maruti Suzuki 332,110 290,443 14.3 370,621 -10.4 36,461 28,331 28.7 47,842 -23.8 28,060 23,513 19.3 37,165 -24.5
sequentially in 3Q. Our top picks are Maruti
Tata Motors 1,092,089 884,886 23.4 1,051,282 3.9 166,466 122,796 35.6 162,745 2.3 42,756 29,581 44.5 38,877 10.0 Suzuki, Tata Motors and Divgi TorqTransfer
Systems.
TVS Motors 83,452 65,454 27.5 81,446 2.5 8,755 6,589 32.9 8,998 -2.7 4,900 3,528 38.9 4,991 -1.8
Total 2,252,397 1,874,168 20.2 2,220,994 1.4 321,189 242,521 32.4 325,325 -1.3 154,980 115,680 34.0 168,874 -8.2
Banks
Axis Bank 123,117 114,593 7.4 123,146 -0.0 85,817 92,775 -7.5 86,319 -0.6 56,113 58,531 -4.1 58,636 -4.3 Banks under our coverage are expected to
Bank of Baroda 108,163 108,182 -0.0 108,307 -0.1 68,466 82,321 -16.8 80,197 -14.6 35,380 38,527 -8.2 42,529 -16.8 witness a weak quarter, as core earnings could
fall by 7.3% QoQ to Rs463bn (vs +0.1% QoQ in
City Union Bank 5,300 5,557 -4.6 5,384 -1.6 3,673 4,973 -26.1 3,866 -5.0 2,507 2,178 15.1 2,806 -10.7 Q2’24), mainly driven by reduction in NIM. Loan
DCB Bank 4,809 4,460 7.8 4,757 1.1 2,072 1,941 6.7 2,105 -1.6 1,242 1,139 9.1 1,268 -2.0 growth might come in at 3.8% QoQ (4.3% in
Q2FY24), while deposit accretion could be
Federal Bank 21,221 19,565 8.5 20,564 3.2 13,293 13,218 0.6 13,245 0.4 9,159 8,036 14.0 9,538 -4.0
+2.1% QoQ (3.9% last quarter). NIM contraction
HDFC Bank 286,635 278,279 3.0 273,852 4.7 293,726 229,181 28.2 226,939 29.4 150,271 149,943 0.2 159,761 -5.9 could moderate this quarter (vs Q2FY24) and
we expect NIM to decline by 5bps QoQ (-16bps
ICICI Bank 183,521 164,650 11.5 183,079 0.2 139,049 132,712 4.8 142,293 -2.3 97,537 83,119 17.3 102,610 -4.9
in Q2’24) to 3.62%. Fees could grow by 3.1%
IndusInd bank 52,032 44,954 15.7 50,767 2.5 38,807 36,804 5.4 38,809 -0.0 20,855 19,592 6.4 21,815 -4.4 QoQ offset by opex increase of 3.4% QoQ. Core
Kotak Mahindra Bank 63,019 56,529 11.5 62,966 0.1 46,281 38,498 20.2 46,101 0.4 31,561 27,919 13.0 31,910 -1.1 PPoP may come in at Rs733bn (-0.4% QoQ).
Led by KCC, gross slippage ratio might see a
State Bank of India 394,681 380,686 3.7 395,000 -0.1 170,482 252,193 -32.4 194,166 -12.2 119,612 142,057 -15.8 143,300 -16.5 slight 3bps rise to 1.28%. Among our coverage
Total 1,242,498 1,177,456 5.5 1,227,823 1.2 861,666 884,617 -2.6 834,039 3.3 524,236 531,040 -1.3 574,172 -8.7 universe we prefer ICICIB and HDFCB.s
January 10, 2024 32

India Strategy
Revenue EBITDA PAT
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Building Materials
Expected to report moderate to strong volume
Astral Ltd. 13,539 12,678 6.8 13,630 -0.7 2,155 1,864 15.6 2,201 -2.1 1,265 930 36.0 1,317 -3.9
growth even after higher base.
Anticipate healthy volume growth in plastic pipe
Century Plyboard (I) 9,899 8,837 12.0 9,968 -0.7 1,521 1,287 18.2 1,443 5.4 994 823 20.7 969 2.6 sector, while tiles and bathware sectors are
likely to experience lower growth.
Cera Sanitaryware 4,765 4,578 4.1 4,637 2.8 781 750 4.1 765 2.2 598 569 5.0 574 4.1 Companies to register sales growth of 5.8%
YoY, given correction in realizations in plastic
Finolex Industries 11,439 11,248 1.7 8,832 29.5 1,748 919 90.2 1,030 69.7 1,379 795 73.4 980 40.8 pipe segment. With correction in RM prices and
fuel expenses, we expect margins to improve
Greenpanel Industries 4,235 4,202 0.8 3,987 6.2 815 920 -11.4 691 18.0 494 375 31.6 410 20.5 YoY (+190bps YoY) along with EBITDA/PAT
growth of 21.1%/28.9% YoY.
Kajaria Ceramics 11,663 10,911 6.9 11,216 4.0 1,866 1,331 40.2 1,797 3.8 1,138 743 53.1 1,082 5.2 We prefer Woodpanel companies on account of
a) stabilization in timber prices, b) possible
Supreme Industries 24,395 23,107 5.6 23,087 5.7 3,353 3,034 10.5 3,562 -5.9 2,298 2,100 9.4 2,432 -5.5 reduction in MDF imports aided by
implementation of BIS norms, c) domestic MDF
realization maintained despite capacity increase
Total 79,935 75,561 5.8 75,357 6.1 12,239 10,104 21.1 11,489 6.5 8,166 6,337 28.9 7,762 5.2
and d) healthy volume growth of 15-20% in MDF
Capital Goods
ABB 29,721 24,269 22.5 27,692 7.3 4,464 3,643 22.5 4,385 1.8 3,462 3,059 13.2 3,620 -4.4
Apar Inds Ltd 38,489 39,389 -2.3 39,260 -2.0 3,432 3,432 -0.0 3,498 -1.9 1,735 1,699 2.1 1,739 -0.2
Bharat Electronics 48,333 41,310 17.0 39,933 21.0 9,570 8,535 12.1 10,044 -4.7 7,095 5,988 18.5 8,123 -12.7
BHEL 59,488 52,634 13.0 51,253 16.1 291 1,443 -79.8 -3,877 NA -644 310 NA -2,334 NA
We expect our capital goods coverage universe
Carborandum Universal 11,701 11,871 -1.4 11,463 2.1 1,716 1,710 0.3 1,675 2.5 1,050 1,091 -3.8 1,019 3.1 to report healthy performance in Q3FY24 led by
Engineers India 9,182 8,422 9.0 7,898 16.3 900 498 80.9 985 -8.7 1,061 161 558.3 1,275 -16.8 1) continued execution of strong opening order
GE T&D India 9,760 7,766 25.7 6,978 39.9 966 458 110.8 606 59.3 616 52 1,092.5 372 65.9 books, 2) robust demand/orders/volumes in
domestic market, and 3) traction in key export
Grindwell Norton 6,947 6,039 15.0 6,674 4.1 1,382 1,190 16.2 1,314 5.2 1,002 802 25.0 1,019 -1.6 markets such as Middle East, Americas, Africa
Harsha Engineering 2,994 3,007 -0.4 3,395 -11.8 324 410 -21.0 352 -8.1 190 317 -40.2 204 -6.8 etc. Overall, we expect Revenue/Adj. PAT
Hindustan Aeronautics 61,868 56,655 9.2 56,357 9.8 13,611 9,854 38.1 15,276 -10.9 10,591 9,575 10.6 12,367 -14.4 growth of ~16.6%/22.0% YoY (13.5%/14.1%
YoY ex-L&T). Margin guidance, European
KEC International 50,787 43,746 16.1 44,990 12.9 3,564 1,999 78.3 2,743 29.9 1,067 176 506.4 558 91.2 demand outlook, order/enquiry pipeline and
Cummins India 23,791 21,805 9.1 18,997 25.2 4,152 4,122 0.7 3,386 22.6 3,494 3,601 -3.0 3,285 6.4 impact of elections on domestic demand/orders
Kalpataru Power Transmission 45,138 35,090 28.6 38,440 17.4 3,580 3,050 17.4 3,080 16.2 1,452 1,110 30.8 1,130 28.5 will be key monitorables.
Larsen & Toubro 554,000 463,897 19.4 510,240 8.6 63,060 50,730 24.3 56,320 12.0 32,806 24,568 33.5 32,226 1.8
Praj Industries 10,173 9,115 11.6 8,824 15.3 977 860 13.5 778 25.6 727 623 16.8 623 16.8
Siemens 46,641 40,151 16.2 58,077 -19.7 6,216 5,992 3.7 7,002 -11.2 4,880 4,627 5.5 5,717 -14.6 Our top picks are L&T, Siemens, ABB, Triveni
Turbine, and Praj Industries.
Thermax 23,160 20,493 13.0 23,025 0.6 2,050 1,611 27.2 2,046 0.2 1,450 1,264 14.7 1,586 -8.6
Triveni Turbine 4,143 3,258 27.2 3,878 6.8 808 631 28.0 744 8.7 661 526 25.6 642 2.9
Voltamp Transformers 4,272 3,575 19.5 3,814 12.0 722 554 30.3 688 5.0 592 508 16.7 684 -13.4
Total 1,040,584 892,491 16.6 961,187 8.3 121,783 100,722 20.9 111,045 9.7 73,287 60,056 22.0 73,855 -0.8
January 10, 2024 33
India Strategy
Revenue EBITDA PAT
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Chemicals
Aarti Industries 15,955 16,677 -4.3 14,540 9.7 2,520 2,887 -12.7 2,340 7.7 878 1,365 -35.7 920 -4.6
Clean Science and Technology 1,908 2,374 -19.6 1,811 5.4 776 1,082 -28.3 748 3.7 531 838 -36.6 522 1.8 Compared with 8% sequential slide in Brent,
benzene and phenol, key raw materials for
Deepak NIitrite 17,384 19,911 -12.7 17,781 -2.2 2,846 3,146 -9.5 3,023 -5.8 1,823 2,090 -12.8 2,051 -11.1
several chemical companies, have witnessed
Fine Organic Industries 4,152 7,499 -44.6 4,718 -12.0 860 1,601 -46.3 1,044 -17.6 450 1,062 -57.6 794 -43.3 3%/1% decline QoQ. Sulfuric acid prices have
Gujarat Fluorochemicals 7,417 14,179 -47.7 9,468 -21.7 1,614 5,232 -69.1 1,816 -11.1 574 3,295 -82.6 712 -19.3 risen 19% QoQ while acetic acid prices have
decline by 19% QoQ. Freight also appears to
Jubilant Ingrevia 9,038 11,583 -22.0 10,199 -11.4 959 1,512 -36.5 1,177 -18.5 468 914 -48.8 574 -18.5 have risen due to the ongoing Red Sea conflict.
Laxmi Organic Industries 6,523 6,546 -0.4 6,523 - 636 548 16.1 685 -7.1 361 273 32.6 403 -10.3 As a result, after 17/26/37% YoY drop in
Rev/EBITDA/PAT in 2QFY24, on an aggregate
Navin Fluorine International 4,248 5,636 -24.6 4,718 -10.0 950 1,556 -39.0 983 -3.4 455 1,066 -57.3 606 -24.9 basis, we expect our universe of specialty
NOCIL 3,384 3,257 3.9 3,509 -3.5 385 377 2.1 453 -15.0 221 186 18.5 272 -18.8 chemical companies to register another weak
quarter with 18/34/45% YoY drop in
SRF 29,634 34,697 -14.6 31,774 -6.7 5,662 8,335 -32.1 6,262 -9.6 3,191 5,109 -37.5 3,008 6.1
Rev/EBITDA/PAT led by lack of demand and
Vinati Organics 4,562 5,087 -10.3 4,481 1.8 1,190 1,638 -27.3 1,108 7.4 880 1,254 -29.8 842 4.6 margin pressure.
Total 104,206 127,444 -18.2 109,521 -4.9 18,399 27,913 -34.1 19,639 -6.3 9,833 17,452 -43.7 10,703 -8.1
Consumer Durables
Bajaj Electicals 13,742 14,831 -7.3 11,128 23.5 962 1,005 -4.3 581 65.7 551 635 -13.1 378 45.7
Impacted Quarter due to moderate festive
Crompton Greaves Consumer
17,310 15,162 14.2 17,823 -2.9 1,644 1,524 7.9 1,745 -5.8 1,028 853 20.6 972 5.8 demand and higher base of previous year due
Electricals to restocking. Cable & Wires segment continue
Havells India 45,249 41,276 9.6 39,003 16.0 4,434 4,238 4.6 3,734 18.8 3,015 2,835 6.4 2,491 21.1 to outperform over other segments, while
growth in wires vertical is sluggish. Weak
KEI Inds 20,095 17,843 12.6 19,466 3.2 2,090 1,822 14.7 2,039 2.5 1,442 1,286 12.1 1,402 2.9
season for RAC/Fans, the sector is expecting
Polycab India 41,602 37,151 12.0 42,177 -1.4 5,575 5,038 10.7 6,089 -8.4 3,746 3,576 4.7 4,256 -12.0 moderate growth in volume and impact of high
base is also visible.
R R Kabel 16,201 14,795 9.5 16,097 0.6 1,255 1,176 6.7 1,209 3.8 808 714 13.2 741 9.1
Expect Crompton, KEI, Polycab & Voltas to
Voltas 23,558 20,056 17.5 22,928 2.7 1,413 764 85.1 703 101.1 1,096 270 305.9 367 198.9 outperform and Bajaj Electricals to
underperformance in sales.
Total 177,758 161,115 10.3 168,620 5.4 17,374 15,566 11.6 16,099 7.9 11,688 10,169 14.9 10,607 10.2
January 10, 2024 34

India Strategy
Revenue EBITDA PAT
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Consumer Staples
Asian Paints 93,277 86,367 8.0 84,786 10.0 20,334 16,114 26.2 17,162 18.5 14,257 10,971 30.0 12,324 15.7
Britannia Industries 45,325 41,968 8.0 44,329 2.2 8,612 8,176 5.3 8,724 -1.3 5,842 5,568 4.9 5,865 -0.4 We estimate our coverage universe to report
Sales, EBIDTA and PAT growth of
Colgate Palmolive 13,709 12,913 6.2 14,711 -6.8 4,359 3,615 20.6 4,821 -9.6 3,035 2,432 24.8 3,401 -10.7 8.7%/11%/10.9% YoY on 45bps EBIDTA
Dabur India 33,018 30,432 8.5 32,038 3.1 6,769 6,099 11.0 6,609 2.4 5,255 4,767 10.2 5,070 3.6 margin expansion. Margin expansion will be led
by low input costs. APNT, KNPL, CLGT, PIDI
Avenue Supermarts 135,971 115,691 17.5 126,244 7.7 11,286 9,653 16.9 10,050 12.3 7,031 5,897 19.2 6,236 12.8 and NEST will have strong profit. QSR (JUBI,
Emami 9,925 9,827 1.0 8,649 14.8 3,175 2,943 7.9 2,337 35.9 2,451 2,371 3.4 1,800 36.2 WFL and BK) will report decline in profits.
Hindustan Unilever 149,234 152,280 -2.0 152,760 -2.3 35,816 35,370 1.3 36,940 -3.0 25,790 25,810 -0.1 26,680 -3.3 Staples demand & sentiments remained under
ITC 168,748 162,257 4.0 165,501 2.0 64,799 62,232 4.1 60,416 7.3 52,910 50,310 5.2 49,270 7.4 pressure amid sustained inflationary pressure
and slower than expected rural recovery,
Jubilant FoodWorks 13,956 13,166 6.0 13,448 3.8 2,861 2,900 -1.3 2,807 1.9 689 886 -22.2 721 -4.5
however urban markets remained resilient. We
Kansai Nerolac Paints 18,630 17,171 8.5 18,456 0.9 2,944 1,885 56.2 2,699 9.1 1,929 1,123 71.8 1,799 7.2 expect staples to post low to mid-single digit
volume growth in 3Q24.
Metro Brands Asia 6,885 5,987 15.0 5,557 23.9 2,134 2,052 4.0 1,554 37.3 1,124 1,120 0.4 667 68.5
Marico 23,959 24,700 -3.0 24,760 -3.2 5,079 4,560 11.4 4,970 2.2 3,671 3,330 10.2 3,600 2.0 Demand across discretionary categories like
Mold Tech Packaging 1,688 1,548 9.0 1,704 -1.0 329 284 15.6 321 2.3 154 163 -5.8 157 -2.0 QSR, Footwear and Retail remained under
pressure amid moderate festive season. QSR
Nestle India 48,770 42,568 14.6 50,368 -3.2 11,754 9,769 20.3 12,287 -4.3 7,477 6,319 18.3 8,055 -7.2 had volatile quarter with strong demand on
Pidilite Industries 32,674 29,976 9.0 30,760 6.2 7,907 4,959 59.5 6,797 16.3 5,510 3,077 79.0 4,585 20.2 specific occasions and tepid normally. Paints
gained from robust festive & wedding season
Restaurant Brands Asia 4,918 3,698 33.0 4,535 8.5 639 479 33.5 634 0.8 -171 -112 NA -93 NA which leading to strong volume growth while
Titan Company 133,436 108,750 22.7 116,600 14.4 15,879 13,300 19.4 13,550 17.2 11,085 9,510 16.6 9,400 17.9 organized Jewellery players gained share and
grew despite sluggish industry demand due to
Westlife Development 6,555 6,115 7.2 6,147 6.6 1,055 1,022 3.3 982 7.5 263 364 -27.8 224 17.5 higher gold prices.
Total 940,679 865,414 8.7 901,353 4.4 205,731 185,410 11.0 193,661 6.2 148,301 133,905 10.8 139,759 6.1
Education
Education companies under our coverage
Navneet Education 2,967 2,643 12.3 2,658 11.6 270 103 161.9 -43 NA 114 -334 NA -326 NA
universe are expected to report 9.9% YoY
growth in top-line. While softness in higher
education segment is likely to impact S Chand
S Chand & Co 656 652 0.5 380 72.5 -400 -329 NA -498 NA -386 -262 NA -403 NA
& Co (S Chand); Navneet Education’s (NELI)
publishing business is expected to benefit amid
revenue spill over arising from change in paper
Total 3,623 3,295 9.9 3,038 19.2 -130 -226 NA -541 NA -272 -596 NA -729 NA
pattern of Gujarat board.
January 10, 2024 35

India Strategy
Revenue EBITDA PAT
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Healthcare
Despite Q3 being seasonally weak quarter, we
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise 48,303 42,636 13.3 48,469 -0.3 6,055 5,054 19.8 6,275 -3.5 2,325 1,535 51.5 2,310 0.7 forecast hospital companies to deliver healthy
YoY growth in Q3FY24 aided by higher ARPOB
Aster DM Healthcare 35,774 31,921 12.1 33,166 7.9 4,929 4,487 9.9 3,773 30.7 1,229 1,394 -11.9 -308 NA and steady occupancy. However, on sequential
basis we anticipate 100-400 bps decline in
occupancy impacted by festive season. Further
Fortis Healthcare 17,276 15,599 10.8 17,700 -2.4 3,211 2,764 16.1 3,302 -2.8 1,551 1,296 19.7 1,737 -10.7 state elections in Telangana and cyclone impact
in Chennai have also impacted occupancy for
HealthCare Global Enterprises 4,602 4,247 8.4 4,869 -5.5 805 755 6.6 846 -4.9 147 76 94.5 136 8.2 AP, Telangana and Chennai based units. This
will impact growth for APHS and KIMS hospital
business given their presence. We foresee
Jupiter Life Line Hospitals 2,576 2,284 12.8 2,632 -2.1 567 452 25.4 610 -7.1 317 -4 NA 337 -5.9
ARPOB to continue to remain higher on YoY
basis. Overall, we expect +16% YoY growth
Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences 6,186 5,622 10.0 6,525 -5.2 1,608 1,512 6.4 1,773 -9.3 808 760 6.4 920 -12.2 (down 5% QoQ) in post IND AS EBITDA (Ex of
Rs. 1.67bn loss in Apollo 24*7, EBITDA growth
Max Healthcare Institute 16,932 14,640 15.7 17,190 -1.5 4,728 4,050 16.7 4,850 -2.5 3,447 2,690 28.1 3,390 1.7 expected at +12.3% YoY) in Q3 for our
coverage universe. We remain structurally
positive in the hospitals space and expect
Narayana Hrudayalaya 12,498 11,282 10.8 13,052 -4.3 2,801 2,544 10.1 3,081 -9.1 1,900 1,539 23.5 2,268 -16.2 momentum to continue with 1) improvement in
occupancy, 2) better case- payor mix and 3)
Total 144,147 128,230 12.4 143,603 0.4 24,705 21,618 14.3 24,510 0.8 11,724 9,285 26.3 10,790 8.7 new capacity additions. Our top picks in the
sector are MAXHEALT, JLHL and FORH.
Housing Finance
For our coverage HFCs, AuM at Rs3.3trn could
Aavas Financiers 2,300 2,082 10.5 2,223 3.5 1,563 1,415 10.5 1,631 -4.1 1,173 1,073 9.3 1,217 -3.7 see 1.9% QoQ growth compared to 0.9% in
Q1’24 and +7.5-9.0% (likely) in case of housing
segment for banks. NIM could decline by 20bps
QoQ to 3.17%. Hence NII may fall by 3.7% QoQ.
Can Fin Homes 3,254 2,517 29.3 3,168 2.7 2,725 2,129 28.0 2,702 0.8 1,925 1,515 27.1 1,581 21.8 Disbursal run-rate of LICHF is the key
monitorable especially given weak credit flow in
the last few quarters. Opex could rise by 7.3%
LIC Housing Finance 19,977 16,068 24.3 21,128 -5.4 17,650 13,556 30.2 18,993 -7.1 10,841 4,803 125.7 11,881 -8.7 QoQ to Rs4.75bn. As a result, PPoP could dip
by 5.9% QoQ to Rs21.9bn. We see a 6bps QoQ
decline in provisions to 56bps as CANFIN would
see credit costs normalize. PAT may fall by
Total 25,531 20,667 23.5 26,518 -3.7 21,938 17,100 28.3 23,325 -5.9 13,938 7,391 88.6 14,678 -5.0 5.0% QoQ to Rs13.9bn. CANFIN remains our
preferred pick in HFCs.
January 10, 2024 36

India Strategy
Revenue EBITDA PAT
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Media
Industry wide BO collections were weaker on
Nazara Technologies 3,115 3,148 -1.1 2,972 4.8 455 305 49.1 279 63.1 269 165 63.1 181 48.3 sequential basis (down 22% QoQ to ~Rs25.6bn
in 3QFY24E)
For broadcasting, ZEEL’s performance is likely

PVR Inox 15,529 9,407 65.1 19,999 -22.4 4,508 2,888 56.1 7,068 -36.2 -45 161 NA 1,663 NA to be impacted by continued weakness in ad-
environment exacerbated by cricket world cup
(shift of ad-spends from GEC towards sports).
Zee Entertainment 20,697 21,088 -1.9 24,378 -15.1 2,090 3,660 -42.9 3,328 -37.2 884 2,202 -59.9 2,497 -64.6
For entertainment, levy of GST on full bet value,
persistent headwinds in Kiddopia & Ad-Tech
business coupled with modest performance
Total 39,340 33,642 16.9 47,349 -16.9 7,053 6,853 2.9 10,674 -33.9 1,108 2,529 -56.2 4,341 -74.5 from Nodwin is likely to slow down the growth
trajectory for Nazara.
Metals & Mining
In 3QFY24, we expect steel companies to
Hindalco Industries 539 532 1.4 542 -0.5 51 35 44.9 56 -8.4 21 14 50.9 21 -3.7 deliver weak performance sequentially on
account of 1) EBITDA per ton stands impacted
Jindal Stainless 99 91 8.7 98 0.6 12 9 32.7 12 -6.4 7 5 40.7 8 -9.6 by lower increase in NSR, 2) higher RM prices
and 3) operating leverage stands relatively
lower. The quarter also witnessed festivities,
Jindal Steel & Power 123 125 -1.4 123 0.2 24 24 2.4 23 6.5 11 5 108.5 14 -22.1 elections in few key states and higher imports
which affected steel pricing. Prior period lower
cost inventory of coking coal will aid profitability
JSW Steel 427 391 9.0 446 -4.3 66 45 45.2 79 -16.3 18 5 258.8 22 -21.1 to some extent, but there is a need to increase
prices in coming months to maintain margins.
National Aluminium Co. 34 33 2.8 30 11.2 4 5 -10.8 4 3.4 2 3 -15.9 2 11.7 Recent price hikes taken by NMDC shall aid
realization to improve 8-9% QoQ. We expect
EBIDA/t to increase ~Rs1,100 sequentially
NMDC 52 37 40.9 40 30.6 16 11 36.0 12 30.3 12 9 33.6 10 17.8 backed by a strong 19% volume growth reported
by the company.
Steel Authority of India 269 250 7.4 280 -3.8 24 21 17.2 21 14.8 6 5 22.5 12 -54.2 Non-ferrous companies are expected to
showcase improved performance on stable
Aluminium prices (+2% QoQ) and better
Tata Steel 565 571 -1.1 557 1.4 52 40 27.4 43 20.8 2 -10 NA 5 -47.2 volumes. Maintenance shutdown at HNDL may
impact copper volumes while Novelis is
expected to deliver weaker performance in a
Total 2,107 2,029 3.8 2,115 -0.4 249 191 30.5 250 -0.4 78 35 121.3 95 -17.1 seasonally weak quarter.
Top picks are NMDC, JSP and HNDL.
January 10, 2024 37

India Strategy
Revenue EBITDA PAT
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Travel & Tourism
Backed by festivities and seasonality (travel &
Chalet Hotels 3,552 2,897 22.6 3,145 12.9 1,543 1,135 35.9 1,260 22.5 547 418 30.7 364 50.1
wedding) we expect VIP/Safari to report 5%/25%
growth in top-line.
InterGlobe Aviation 181,207 149,330 21.3 149,439 21.3 44,988 31,878 41.1 23,958 87.8 24,469 14,226 72.0 1,889 1,195.1
Indian Railway Catering and Tourism In a seasonally strong quarter, we expect
10,367 9,181 12.9 9,953 4.2 3,736 3,258 14.7 3,666 1.9 2,950 2,542 16.0 2,947 0.1 Chalet/Lemon Tree to report ARR of
Corporation
Rs11,185/Rs6,406 respectively. While Chalet
Lemon Tree Hotels 2,792 2,335 19.6 2,272 22.9 1,338 1,265 5.8 1,019 31.3 394 400 -1.5 226 73.9 would stand to benefit from operationalization of
88 rooms at Novotel, Pune; Lemon Tree’s
Safari Industries (India) 3,788 3,031 25.0 3,700 2.4 667 550 21.2 635 5.1 413 345 19.9 398 4.0 performance would get a boost from
inauguration of 669 rooms at Aurika, Mumbai.
V.I.P. Industries 5,527 5,264 5.0 5,461 1.2 702 730 -3.8 529 32.7 332 441 -24.8 133 149.7
We expect Indigo to report load factor of 85.1%
and yield of Rs5.3 (in-line with 3QFY23) buoyed
Total 207,234 172,038 20.5 173,970 19.1 52,973 38,815 36.5 31,066 70.5 29,104 18,372 58.4 5,957 388.5
by festivities and World Cup.
Oil & Gas

Bharat Petroleum Corporation 1,059.3 1,191.6 -11.1 1,029.9 2.9 59.9 43.8 36.8 129.1 -53.6 29.5 19.6 50.4 85.0 -65.3
GAIL (India) 327.8 353.8 -7.4 318.2 3.0 33.5 2.6 1,183.8 34.9 -3.9 24.1 2.5 879.7 24.0 0.1
OMCs’ operating profit is expected to fall QoQ
Gujarat Gas 45.6 36.8 23.8 38.5 18.7 4.8 5.8 -17.1 5.0 -2.7 2.8 3.7 -25.3 3.0 -6.9 owing to a significant decline in their refining
Gujarat State Petronet 4.1 3.5 19.0 4.5 -8.6 3.5 2.7 31.0 4.1 -13.8 2.4 1.7 43.1 5.3 -54.0 margins.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation 1,030.6 1,096.0 -6.0 887.8 16.1 27.7 16.7 65.9 82.2 -66.2 9.7 1.7 460.8 51.2 -81.1 Upstream companies’ operating profit to remain
Indraprastha Gas 37.7 37.1 1.5 34.6 9.0 6.8 4.3 59.2 6.6 3.8 4.7 2.8 68.0 5.4 -12.7 flat QoQ with muted volume growth and
unchanged realizations, with net crude
Indian Oil Corporation 3,152.2 2,047.4 54.0 1,797.4 75.4 82.9 52.9 56.5 213.1 -61.1 29.9 4.5 566.9 129.7 -77.0 realization post windfall tax at ~US$75/bbl and
Mahanagar Gas 15.1 16.7 -9.7 15.7 -4.0 3.9 2.6 54.0 4.8 -17.6 2.7 1.7 54.2 3.4 -21.6 gas realization at US$6.5/mmBtu.
Manglore Refinery Petrochemicals 233.5 265.6 -12.1 192.3 21.4 13.7 5.4 155.5 21.5 -36.3 5.7 -1.9 NA 10.6 -46.5 CGD earnings to decline due to an increase in
Oil India 58.3 58.8 -0.9 59.1 -1.4 25.2 28.6 -11.7 24.9 1.3 15.1 17.5 -13.8 26.9 -44.0 procurement costs amid rise in spot LNG prices
although we expect a healthy volume growth on
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation 360.7 385.8 -6.5 351.6 2.6 184.6 204.1 -9.5 183.6 0.6 99.1 110.4 -10.3 102.2 -3.0 YoY basis.
Petronet LNG 140.1 157.8 -11.2 125.3 11.8 11.5 16.8 -31.3 12.1 -5.3 7.5 11.8 -36.5 8.2 -8.4
ONGC remains our top pick in the sector.
Reliance Industries 2,392.7 2,171.6 10.2 2,318.9 3.2 403.3 352.5 14.4 409.7 -1.6 157.9 157.9 0.0 173.9 -9.2
Total 8,857.5 7,822.6 13.2 7,173.8 23.5 861.5 738.6 16.6 1,131.5 -23.9 390.9 333.9 17.1 628.7 -37.8
January 10, 2024 38

India Strategy
Revenue EBITDA PAT
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Pharma
Aurobindo Pharma 73,912 64,071 15.4 72,194 2.4 14,913 9,544 56.2 14,034 6.3 7,983 4,922 62.2 7,528 6.0
Cipla 65,053 58,101 12.0 66,781 -2.6 15,963 14,076 13.4 17,337 -7.9 10,575 8,010 32.0 11,309 -6.5 We expect pharmaceuticals companies under
our coverage to report another strong quarter
Divis Lab 19,206 17,077 12.5 19,090 0.6 5,474 4,083 34.1 4,790 14.3 3,844 3,068 25.3 3,480 10.5 with EBIDTA growth of 19% YoY (flat QoQ)
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories 70,038 67,700 3.5 68,802 1.8 19,893 20,562 -3.3 19,916 -0.1 13,463 12,471 8.0 14,800 -9.0 mainly aided by 1) New launches (gRevlimid,
gSpiriva, etc) in US market, 2) Steady domestic
Eris Lifesciences 4,813 4,233 13.7 5,053 -4.7 1,753 1,372 27.7 1,811 -3.2 995 1,019 -2.3 1,234 -19.4
business and 3) Higher margins. We expect the
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals 36,636 34,639 5.8 35,878 2.1 6,630 6,202 6.9 8,427 -21.3 2,810 2,726 3.1 1,797 56.3 quarter to witness continued easing of cost
Indoco Remedies 4,788 3,992 19.9 4,817 -0.6 810 620 30.5 714 13.5 381 282 35.3 351 8.6 pressures which will thereby aid margins YoY.
The companies have witnessed slow pick up in
IPCA Labs 21,030 15,460 36.0 20,340 3.4 3,585 2,319 54.6 3,195 12.2 1,754 1,078 62.7 1,451 20.9 flu season which will be offset by steady base
JB Chem & Pharma 8,480 7,927 7.0 8,817 -3.8 2,219 1,748 27.0 2,435 -8.9 1,348 1,061 27.1 1,506 -10.5 business and new launches. On domestic
formulation business; volumes offtake in acute
Lupin 49,788 43,222 15.2 50,386 -1.2 9,181 5,160 77.9 9,232 -0.5 4,730 1,535 208.2 4,897 -3.4
and trade generic segments are likely to recover
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries 124,051 112,410 10.4 121,924 1.7 33,545 30,069 11.6 32,135 4.4 24,600 21,660 13.6 23,755 3.6 while benefit of price hike in NLEM portfolio and
Torrent Pharma 27,298 24,910 9.6 26,600 2.6 8,523 7,240 17.7 8,250 3.3 4,118 2,920 41.0 3,860 6.7 steady growth in chronic portfolio will be seen in
few domestic focused companies. Our top picks
Zydus Lifesciences 44,705 42,571 5.0 43,688 2.3 10,048 8,508 18.1 10,639 -5.6 7,063 5,173 36.5 7,195 -1.8 remain SUNP, JBCP, ERIS and TRP.
Total 549,800 496,312 10.8 544,370 1.0 132,536 111,503 18.9 132,915 -0.3 83,667 65,924 26.9 83,163 0.6
Telecom
Bharti Airtel 378,952 358,044 5.8 370,438 2.3 198,995 184,532 7.8 195,137 2.0 15,467 15,881 -2.6 13,407 15.4
Total 378,952 358,044 5.8 370,438 2.3 198,995 184,532 8 195,137 2.0 15,467 15,881 -2.6 13,407 15.4
Total (Rs bn) 18,151 16,238 11.8 16,263 11.6 3,107 2,776 11.9 3,310 -6.1 1,555 1,363 14.1 1,841 -15.5
Source: Company, PL
January 10, 2024 39

India Strategy
PL Valuation
Sector / Price TP Upside Mcap Revenues (Rs bn) PAT (Rs bn) EBITDA (Rs bn) EPS (Rs) BVPS (Rs) RoE (%) RoCE (%) PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Rating
Company Name (Rs) (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Ley land BUY 175 210 19.8 514.8 396.6 426.5 426.5 420.5 24.0 32.7 32.7 31.5 44.8 50.3 50.3 50.9 8.2 11.2 11.2 10.7 32.5 37.5 37.5 42.3 26.8 31.9 31.9 26.9 30.8 31.0 31.0 28.0 21.4 15.7 15.7 16.4 5.4 4.7 4.7 4.1 11.3 9.9 9.9 9.5
Bharat Forge Acc 1,284 1,320 2.8 597.8 163.4 187.2 187.2 204.7 13.8 20.4 20.4 24.7 28.7 37.5 37.5 43.0 29.6 43.8 43.8 53.1 191.7 226.5 226.5 266.6 16.6 21.0 21.0 21.5 15.5 19.5 19.5 20.3 43.3 29.3 29.3 24.2 6.7 5.7 5.7 4.8 22.1 16.8 16.8 14.4
Bajaj Auto Reduce 7,054 6,000 (14.9) 1,995.9 438.7 503.7 503.7 547.5 70.0 80.8 80.8 89.5 83.4 97.6 97.6 108.3 247.3 285.5 285.5 316.2 985.8 1,096.4 1,096.4 1,222.6 26.2 27.4 27.4 27.3 29.8 31.6 31.6 31.5 28.5 24.7 24.7 22.3 7.2 6.4 6.4 5.8 21.2 17.9 17.9 15.9
CEAT Acc 2,446 2,640 8.0 98.9 118.9 129.0 129.0 138.1 6.2 6.5 6.5 7.3 15.9 16.6 16.6 18.0 152.4 160.3 160.3 181.2 972.8 1,100.1 1,100.1 1,246.3 16.7 15.5 15.5 15.4 18.2 17.7 17.7 18.1 16.0 15.3 15.3 13.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.0 7.2 6.6 6.6 5.8
Eicher Motors HOLD 3,843 3,870 0.7 1,050.9 162.6 179.7 179.7 198.7 38.2 43.6 43.6 47.5 40.4 45.7 45.7 51.2 139.8 159.3 159.3 173.6 636.9 739.2 739.2 855.8 23.6 23.2 23.2 21.8 21.2 20.9 20.9 20.3 27.5 24.1 24.1 22.1 6.0 5.2 5.2 4.5 22.7 19.5 19.5 16.7
Endurance Technologies HOLD 2,012 1,975 (1.9) 283.1 102.4 116.1 116.1 126.9 7.0 9.5 9.5 11.1 13.5 17.0 17.0 19.4 49.5 67.7 67.7 78.7 356.5 417.4 417.4 489.4 14.8 17.5 17.5 17.4 16.9 20.3 20.3 20.4 40.6 29.7 29.7 25.6 5.6 4.8 4.8 4.1 20.4 15.8 15.8 13.4
Ex ide Industries Acc 328 345 5.2 278.6 161.9 177.8 177.8 201.5 10.9 13.2 13.2 15.5 18.5 22.0 22.0 25.5 12.8 15.6 15.6 18.3 141.7 153.7 153.7 168.0 9.4 10.5 10.5 11.4 11.7 13.2 13.2 14.4 25.6 21.1 21.1 17.9 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 14.4 11.9 11.9 9.9
Hero Motocorp Acc 4,138 4,120 (0.4) 827.0 377.3 412.7 412.7 438.5 40.7 44.6 44.6 47.1 52.8 59.4 59.4 63.6 203.7 223.0 223.0 235.5 930.7 1,048.7 1,048.7 1,179.2 23.1 22.5 22.5 21.1 26.0 26.1 26.1 24.6 20.3 18.6 18.6 17.6 4.4 3.9 3.9 3.5 14.0 12.2 12.2 11.1
Mahindra & Mahindra BUY 1,633 1,830 12.1 1,956.3 1,022.0 1,121.9 1,121.9 1,207.8 111.4 121.1 121.1 131.4 135.9 153.7 153.7 169.1 93.0 101.1 101.1 109.7 438.8 519.9 519.9 609.6 23.2 21.1 21.1 19.4 19.4 18.6 18.6 17.5 17.6 16.2 16.2 14.9 3.7 3.1 3.1 2.7 13.7 11.8 11.8 10.2
Maruti Suzuki BUY 10,010 12,100 20.9 3,146.4 1,392.7 1,522.7 1,522.7 1,658.1 125.9 141.0 141.0 155.8 162.9 195.4 195.4 216.6 400.7 448.7 448.7 495.8 2,610.2 2,918.9 2,918.9 3,254.7 17.7 16.2 16.2 16.1 18.1 17.3 17.3 17.4 25.0 22.3 22.3 20.2 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.1 15.7 12.5 12.5 10.7
Tata Motors BUY 808 900 11.3 3,096.4 4,414.4 4,720.4 4,720.4 4,925.2 228.8 261.3 261.3 274.3 620.9 679.8 679.8 708.6 59.7 68.2 68.2 71.6 180.4 248.6 248.6 320.2 40.0 31.8 31.8 25.2 17.9 17.2 17.2 15.8 13.5 11.9 11.9 11.3 4.5 3.3 3.3 2.5 6.1 5.3 5.3 4.8
TVS Motor Company HOLD 2,020 1,950 (3.5) 959.8 322.1 365.6 365.6 403.5 20.3 26.4 26.4 30.9 34.9 43.1 43.1 49.6 42.8 55.6 55.6 65.1 165.1 214.7 214.7 273.8 29.3 29.3 29.3 26.7 27.6 29.6 29.6 28.7 47.2 36.3 36.3 31.0 12.2 9.4 9.4 7.4 28.0 22.4 22.4 19.0
Banks
Ax is Bank BUY 1,107 1,250 12.9 3,411.5 490.9 549.2 549.2 624.5 228.7 257.5 257.5 312.2 345.9 389.5 389.5 470.3 74.2 83.4 83.4 100.9 482.1 545.0 545.0 633.7 16.7 16.3 16.3 17.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 14.9 13.3 13.3 11.0 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.7 - - - -
Bank of Baroda BUY 224 240 7.2 1,159.0 436.5 480.8 480.8 540.5 151.7 159.0 159.0 173.9 292.3 308.4 308.4 341.7 29.3 30.7 30.7 33.6 208.0 227.6 227.6 255.1 15.2 14.1 14.1 13.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 7.6 7.3 7.3 6.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 - - - -
City Union Bank Acc 146 160 9.8 107.9 21.4 23.1 23.1 26.1 10.9 10.3 10.3 11.6 16.3 17.3 17.3 19.5 13.7 14.0 14.0 15.7 113.4 127.3 127.3 143.1 12.8 11.6 11.6 11.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 10.7 10.4 10.4 9.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 - - - -
DCB Bank BUY 154 160 3.7 48.5 19.3 22.5 22.5 26.7 5.1 7.3 7.3 9.5 8.4 12.0 12.0 15.3 16.1 23.1 23.1 30.3 150.8 167.4 167.4 193.3 11.3 14.5 14.5 16.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 9.6 6.7 6.7 5.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 - - - -
Federal Bank BUY 152 180 18.6 367.9 82.9 100.0 100.0 115.9 36.5 42.4 42.4 49.2 53.0 63.7 63.7 75.4 15.1 17.4 17.4 20.2 119.3 130.6 130.6 145.5 14.5 14.0 14.0 14.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 10.1 8.7 8.7 7.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 - - - -
HDFC Bank BUY 1,656 2,025 22.3 12,555.1 1,154.3 1,361.0 1,361.0 1,607.7 622.0 699.5 699.5 832.5 994.8 1,077.0 1,077.0 1,277.1 82.1 92.3 92.3 109.8 570.2 641.2 641.2 725.8 15.3 15.2 15.2 16.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 20.2 17.9 17.9 15.1 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.3 - - - -
ICICI Bank BUY 993 1,280 28.9 6,955.5 736.1 819.0 819.0 925.8 391.5 424.0 424.0 477.5 559.3 614.8 614.8 698.0 55.9 61.0 61.0 68.7 330.0 378.3 378.3 433.2 18.3 17.2 17.2 16.9 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 17.8 16.3 16.3 14.5 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.3 - - - -
IndusInd Bank BUY 1,640 1,620 (1.2) 1,274.5 205.8 233.6 233.6 273.5 85.9 103.3 103.3 125.2 156.5 178.1 178.1 211.2 110.6 126.0 126.0 152.7 796.9 862.2 862.2 998.8 14.8 15.6 15.6 16.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 14.8 13.0 13.0 10.7 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 - - - -
Kotak Mahindra Bank BUY 1,821 2,250 23.6 3,618.8 252.5 296.0 296.0 343.9 129.7 145.1 145.1 164.6 188.3 212.6 212.6 242.3 65.2 73.0 73.0 82.8 481.9 549.5 549.5 628.2 14.4 14.1 14.1 14.0 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 27.9 24.9 24.9 22.0 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.9 - - - -
State Bank of India BUY 622 770 23.8 5,548.9 1,587.7 1,742.6 1,742.6 1,946.1 560.9 575.7 575.7 655.1 800.8 905.6 905.6 1,030.0 62.9 64.5 64.5 73.4 399.3 441.7 441.7 502.6 17.1 15.3 15.3 15.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 9.9 9.6 9.6 8.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 - - - -
Buidling Materials
Astral Ltd. HOLD 1,811 1,983 9.5 487.1 60.2 71.1 71.1 84.1 6.5 8.3 8.3 10.7 10.4 12.8 12.8 15.7 24.3 31.0 31.0 39.8 132.0 160.8 160.8 198.3 20.1 21.2 21.2 22.2 26.3 27.6 27.6 29.0 74.6 58.4 58.4 45.5 13.7 11.3 11.3 9.1 46.5 37.1 37.1 29.6
Century Ply board (I) BUY 775 888 14.6 172.5 39.8 46.7 46.7 52.4 4.2 5.1 5.1 5.8 6.4 8.1 8.1 9.3 18.7 23.0 23.0 26.2 102.7 123.2 123.2 146.6 19.9 20.4 20.4 19.5 22.7 22.4 22.4 21.6 41.4 33.7 33.7 29.5 7.5 6.3 6.3 5.3 27.7 21.9 21.9 18.6
Cera Sanitary w are Acc 7,760 8,597 10.8 100.9 20.2 23.9 23.9 28.2 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.5 3.4 3.9 3.9 4.7 194.5 226.3 226.3 266.6 1,067.2 1,259.8 1,259.8 1,526.3 19.8 19.5 19.5 19.1 26.9 26.2 26.2 25.8 39.9 34.3 34.3 29.1 7.3 6.2 6.2 5.1 27.9 23.6 23.6 19.7
Finolex Industries Acc 237 242 2.1 146.5 47.1 54.2 54.2 62.0 4.6 5.9 5.9 6.9 5.7 7.4 7.4 8.7 7.4 9.6 9.6 11.2 82.9 87.7 87.7 93.3 9.2 11.3 11.3 12.4 8.2 10.7 10.7 12.0 31.8 24.7 24.7 21.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 23.5 17.8 17.8 15.0
Greenpanel Industries BUY 412 498 20.9 50.5 17.2 19.1 19.1 22.9 1.8 2.3 2.3 3.0 3.1 3.9 3.9 4.9 14.9 19.0 19.0 24.8 109.8 125.8 125.8 147.6 14.4 16.1 16.1 18.1 17.2 19.8 19.8 22.8 27.6 21.7 21.7 16.6 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.8 16.5 12.9 12.9 9.8
Kajaria Ceramics Acc 1,377 1,415 2.8 219.2 46.8 54.3 54.3 61.6 4.7 5.8 5.8 6.6 7.5 9.0 9.0 10.2 29.5 36.3 36.3 41.6 167.8 194.5 194.5 225.1 18.8 20.0 20.0 19.8 24.2 25.9 25.9 25.9 46.7 38.0 38.0 33.1 8.2 7.1 7.1 6.1 28.7 23.7 23.7 20.5
Supreme Industries Acc 4,306 4,848 12.6 547.1 106.6 121.3 121.3 139.7 10.6 12.9 12.9 15.6 15.8 18.4 18.4 21.7 83.7 101.5 101.5 122.4 407.1 481.6 481.6 574.1 22.2 22.8 22.8 23.2 28.1 28.3 28.3 29.1 51.5 42.4 42.4 35.2 10.6 8.9 8.9 7.5 33.9 28.8 28.8 23.9
HFCs
AAVAS Financiers HOLD 1,569 1,560 (0.6) 186.0 9.2 11.3 11.3 13.4 4.8 5.8 5.8 6.9 6.4 7.9 7.9 9.3 60.5 73.6 73.6 87.0 470.5 539.7 539.7 621.5 13.7 14.6 14.6 15.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 25.9 21.3 21.3 18.0 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.5 - - - -
Can Fin Homes BUY 760 900 18.5 101.2 12.7 14.0 14.0 16.2 7.3 8.5 8.5 9.8 10.7 11.8 11.8 13.6 55.1 63.5 63.5 73.6 325.7 385.4 385.4 454.6 18.4 17.9 17.9 17.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 13.8 12.0 12.0 10.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.7 - - - -
LIC Housing Finance HOLD 568 460 (19.0) 468.7 83.0 77.6 77.6 80.5 46.6 43.9 43.9 46.7 74.1 68.2 68.2 70.4 84.5 79.6 79.6 84.7 559.0 622.7 622.7 690.5 16.1 13.5 13.5 12.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 6.7 7.1 7.1 6.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 - - - -
January 10, 2024 40

India Strategy
Rating
Capital Goods
ABB India Acc 4,936 4,984 1.0 1,045.9 105.9 128.5 128.5 147.0 12.0 14.1 14.1 16.1 14.5 17.7 17.7 20.2 56.6 66.8 66.8 76.2 272.7 319.4 319.4 372.8 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.0 24.8 25.7 25.7 25.2 87.3 73.9 73.9 64.8 18.1 15.5 15.5 13.2 69.2 56.8 56.8 49.4
Bharat Electronics Acc 186 143 (23.1) 1,356.7 206.5 238.3 238.3 269.4 33.8 40.2 40.2 46.7 45.4 53.6 53.6 61.9 4.6 5.5 5.5 6.4 20.7 23.7 23.7 27.0 23.6 24.8 24.8 25.2 28.6 30.2 30.2 30.7 40.1 33.7 33.7 29.1 9.0 7.8 7.8 6.9 28.0 23.6 23.6 20.3
BHEL UR 200 NA NA 695.2 280.8 324.9 324.9 367.3 8.8 15.5 15.5 25.5 14.6 23.2 23.2 37.3 2.5 4.5 4.5 7.3 80.4 84.5 84.5 91.8 3.2 5.4 5.4 8.3 3.3 5.4 5.4 8.9 78.8 44.7 44.7 27.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 46.5 29.1 29.1 18.0
Carborundum Univ ersal BUY 1,145 1,408 23.0 217.4 49.5 57.6 57.6 65.1 4.7 6.1 6.1 7.4 7.6 9.6 9.6 11.4 24.5 31.9 31.9 39.1 169.5 196.1 196.1 227.8 15.4 17.5 17.5 18.4 17.0 19.5 19.5 20.7 46.7 35.9 35.9 29.3 6.8 5.8 5.8 5.0 27.9 22.0 22.0 18.1
Engineers India BUY 197 166 (15.7) 110.8 37.2 42.7 42.7 48.3 4.1 5.5 5.5 6.2 4.0 5.6 5.6 6.3 7.3 9.8 9.8 11.0 38.9 44.3 44.3 50.4 19.8 23.5 23.5 23.3 17.8 22.4 22.4 22.2 26.9 20.2 20.2 17.9 5.1 4.4 4.4 3.9 24.3 17.0 17.0 14.9
GE T&D India UR 611 NA NA 156.5 34.4 41.7 41.7 51.2 1.8 2.7 2.7 3.6 3.1 4.2 4.2 5.4 7.1 10.6 10.6 13.9 47.9 55.8 55.8 65.6 15.7 20.4 20.4 22.9 18.7 25.0 25.0 28.8 86.4 57.9 57.9 43.9 12.8 10.9 10.9 9.3 50.7 37.3 37.3 29.0
Grindw ell Norton BUY 2,340 2,604 11.3 259.1 29.6 34.4 34.4 40.3 4.3 5.1 5.1 6.2 5.9 7.0 7.0 8.4 38.8 46.3 46.3 55.8 187.4 216.3 216.3 251.2 22.2 23.0 23.0 23.9 26.1 27.2 27.2 28.4 60.3 50.5 50.5 42.0 12.5 10.8 10.8 9.3 42.8 35.9 35.9 29.8
Harsha Engineers InternationalAcc 404 415 2.6 36.8 13.5 15.6 15.6 17.9 0.9 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.3 2.9 10.3 17.2 17.2 22.3 127.0 143.2 143.2 162.1 8.4 12.8 12.8 14.6 10.2 14.9 14.9 17.1 39.3 23.5 23.5 18.2 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.5 22.3 14.8 14.8 11.6
Hindustan Aeronautics BUY 3,017 2,266 (24.9) 2,017.9 294.9 326.9 326.9 367.9 53.0 60.8 60.8 68.9 71.7 81.2 81.2 92.3 79.3 90.9 90.9 103.1 406.5 471.6 471.6 545.3 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4 38.1 33.2 33.2 29.3 7.4 6.4 6.4 5.5 24.7 21.3 21.3 18.3
KEC International HOLD 609 645 6.0 156.6 199.1 228.7 228.7 253.6 4.5 10.1 10.1 13.6 13.8 20.5 20.5 25.5 17.5 39.2 39.2 53.0 160.7 192.8 192.8 236.3 11.4 22.2 22.2 24.7 11.9 16.6 16.6 18.6 34.9 15.6 15.6 11.5 3.8 3.2 3.2 2.6 13.9 9.3 9.3 7.5
Cummins India HOLD 2,046 1,811 (11.5) 567.2 86.9 97.4 97.4 108.9 12.6 14.3 14.3 16.1 14.1 16.2 16.2 18.5 45.4 51.7 51.7 58.1 209.1 226.1 226.1 245.3 22.5 23.8 23.8 24.6 21.1 22.6 22.6 24.0 45.1 39.6 39.6 35.2 9.8 9.0 9.0 8.3 38.6 33.6 33.6 29.5
Kalpataru Projects InternationalBUY 740 740 0.0 120.2 178.9 209.0 209.0 245.0 6.1 8.3 8.3 11.5 14.5 18.1 18.1 23.3 37.4 50.9 50.9 70.8 359.3 402.5 402.5 462.7 10.9 13.4 13.4 16.4 12.4 14.7 14.7 17.8 19.8 14.5 14.5 10.5 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 9.9 8.0 8.0 6.4
Larsen & Toubro BUY 3,546 3,437 (3.0) 4,981.6 2,190.9 2,431.6 2,431.6 2,676.0 136.0 159.9 159.9 185.8 251.9 293.4 293.4 330.4 96.8 113.8 113.8 132.3 724.3 824.2 824.2 936.6 14.2 14.7 14.7 15.0 10.0 11.0 11.0 11.6 36.6 31.2 31.2 26.8 4.9 4.3 4.3 3.8 22.1 19.0 19.0 16.7
Praj Industries Acc 539 611 13.4 99.0 39.6 43.9 43.9 48.8 3.0 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.0 4.6 4.6 5.4 16.3 18.7 18.7 21.9 68.5 79.7 79.7 92.9 25.7 25.2 25.2 25.4 30.7 30.3 30.3 30.7 33.0 28.8 28.8 24.6 7.9 6.8 6.8 5.8 23.5 20.3 20.3 17.2
Siemens Acc 4,181 4,359 4.3 1,488.3 195.5 217.7 217.7 245.0 19.6 22.4 22.4 25.9 24.9 28.8 28.8 32.9 55.1 62.8 62.8 72.6 367.6 411.6 411.6 458.8 15.9 16.1 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.1 18.1 18.6 75.9 66.6 66.6 57.6 11.4 10.2 10.2 9.1 56.8 49.0 49.0 42.7
Thermax HOLD 3,185 2,771 (13.0) 358.6 89.8 98.7 98.7 107.9 5.9 6.8 6.8 7.7 7.9 9.2 9.2 10.3 52.4 60.8 60.8 68.1 378.6 420.6 420.6 467.5 14.5 15.2 15.2 15.3 13.2 13.6 13.6 13.5 60.8 52.4 52.4 46.8 8.4 7.6 7.6 6.8 43.3 37.4 37.4 33.3
Triv eni Turbine Acc 393 450 14.6 124.8 16.3 20.4 20.4 25.2 2.6 3.6 3.6 4.5 3.2 4.4 4.4 5.5 8.3 11.5 11.5 14.3 29.3 36.8 36.8 46.0 31.1 34.7 34.7 34.4 35.4 40.1 40.1 40.2 47.4 34.3 34.3 27.5 13.4 10.7 10.7 8.5 36.5 26.2 26.2 20.8
Voltamp Transformers HOLD 6,574 5,079 (22.7) 66.5 16.4 18.5 18.5 20.9 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 232.3 239.6 239.6 268.3 1,245.4 1,408.4 1,408.4 1,590.8 19.9 18.1 18.1 17.9 22.0 19.7 19.7 19.1 28.3 27.4 27.4 24.5 5.3 4.7 4.7 4.1 24.2 23.6 23.6 21.5
Chemicals
Aarti Industries Reduce 604 584 (3.3) 218.8 70.0 76.8 76.8 84.1 5.6 6.7 6.7 7.6 11.9 14.2 14.2 16.2 15.5 18.4 18.4 20.8 146.2 159.5 159.5 175.1 11.0 12.0 12.0 12.5 9.8 10.3 10.3 10.6 38.9 32.8 32.8 29.0 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.4 21.2 18.1 18.1 16.0
Clean Science and TechnologyHOLD 1,497 1,368 (8.6) 159.1 7.8 8.9 8.9 10.0 2.3 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.7 4.2 21.3 25.0 25.0 28.5 112.5 133.0 133.0 156.4 20.5 20.3 20.3 19.7 25.2 24.6 24.6 23.9 70.4 59.9 59.9 52.5 13.3 11.3 11.3 9.6 48.9 42.9 42.9 37.0
Deepak Nitrite Reduce 2,430 1,881 (22.6) 331.4 69.1 78.7 78.7 87.3 7.6 9.2 9.2 10.3 11.3 14.3 14.3 16.1 55.8 67.2 67.2 75.2 348.9 408.1 408.1 474.3 17.2 17.8 17.8 17.1 20.4 21.5 21.5 20.8 43.5 36.1 36.1 32.3 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.1 29.2 23.3 23.3 20.8
Fine Organic Industries HOLD 4,768 4,920 3.2 146.2 18.2 19.1 19.1 20.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.4 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.2 105.7 100.0 100.0 109.3 570.5 640.5 640.5 717.0 19.8 16.5 16.5 16.1 22.3 18.3 18.3 17.4 45.1 47.7 47.7 43.6 8.4 7.4 7.4 6.7 31.9 33.2 33.2 31.0
Gujarat Fluorochemicals Reduce 3,372 3,342 (0.9) 370.4 34.4 47.4 47.4 62.2 3.8 6.8 6.8 10.5 8.3 13.1 13.1 19.0 34.6 61.7 61.7 95.5 535.8 594.5 594.5 685.2 6.7 10.9 10.9 14.9 7.3 12.2 12.2 16.5 97.4 54.6 54.6 35.3 6.3 5.7 5.7 4.9 45.9 29.3 29.3 20.4
Jubilant Ingrev ia HOLD 486 433 (10.9) 77.3 47.2 54.3 54.3 60.5 2.8 3.6 3.6 4.0 5.4 6.6 6.6 7.2 17.6 22.6 22.6 25.4 182.2 200.9 200.9 221.9 10.0 11.8 11.8 12.0 12.4 14.0 14.0 13.3 27.7 21.5 21.5 19.2 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.2 15.1 12.4 12.4 11.4
Lax mi Organic Industries Reduce 284 267 (5.9) 74.9 25.7 31.5 31.5 35.8 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.8 3.1 4.1 4.1 4.8 5.8 8.3 8.3 10.6 58.8 66.3 66.3 75.8 10.3 13.3 13.3 14.9 10.9 14.5 14.5 16.7 49.0 34.3 34.3 26.8 4.8 4.3 4.3 3.7 24.8 18.3 18.3 15.1
Nav in Fluorine International BUY 3,491 4,260 22.0 173.0 19.6 26.4 26.4 32.0 2.5 4.1 4.1 5.3 4.4 6.5 6.5 8.1 49.5 83.2 83.2 106.5 482.7 552.7 552.7 642.3 10.7 16.1 16.1 17.8 10.9 15.6 15.6 17.4 70.5 42.0 42.0 32.8 7.2 6.3 6.3 5.4 41.0 28.4 28.4 22.7
NOCIL Reduce 269 236 (12.2) 44.7 14.3 16.6 16.6 19.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.7 3.2 7.8 9.8 9.8 11.8 98.0 104.8 104.8 113.5 8.2 9.6 9.6 10.8 10.8 12.5 12.5 14.1 34.3 27.5 27.5 22.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 17.9 14.7 14.7 12.2
SRF HOLD 2,295 2,155 (6.1) 680.3 139.8 161.3 161.3 179.0 16.7 19.4 19.4 22.6 31.0 36.0 36.0 41.7 56.3 65.3 65.3 76.2 397.8 455.1 455.1 522.0 15.1 15.3 15.3 15.6 15.1 15.3 15.3 15.9 40.7 35.2 35.2 30.1 5.8 5.0 5.0 4.4 23.2 20.0 20.0 17.2
Vinati Organics Acc 1,714 1,885 10.0 176.2 18.3 21.9 21.9 25.6 3.5 4.1 4.1 4.8 4.8 5.5 5.5 6.5 34.4 39.7 39.7 47.1 244.8 278.3 278.3 318.0 14.9 15.2 15.2 15.8 16.8 17.0 17.0 18.3 49.9 43.1 43.1 36.4 7.0 6.2 6.2 5.4 36.6 31.3 31.3 26.3
Consumer Durables
Bajaj Electricals HOLD 1,042 1,047 0.5 119.9 49.8 55.8 55.8 63.2 2.0 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.2 4.5 4.5 5.4 17.2 25.1 25.1 29.9 183.6 203.7 203.7 228.6 9.7 13.0 13.0 13.8 15.6 19.7 19.7 20.8 60.5 41.5 41.5 34.8 5.7 5.1 5.1 4.6 35.2 24.9 24.9 20.5
Electricals
Crompton Greav es ConsumerBUY 323 397 23.1 211.5 74.0 85.8 85.8 99.0 4.5 6.0 6.0 7.4 7.3 9.2 9.2 11.0 6.8 9.2 9.2 11.3 44.3 48.2 48.2 54.1 16.0 19.9 19.9 22.0 18.9 24.8 24.8 29.2 47.4 35.1 35.1 28.7 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.0 28.7 22.5 22.5 18.6
Hav ells India Acc 1,391 1,538 10.6 871.3 190.7 219.9 219.9 249.8 12.9 17.3 17.3 22.3 18.7 24.5 24.5 30.8 20.6 27.6 27.6 35.5 121.8 141.8 141.8 167.8 18.1 21.0 21.0 23.0 24.7 28.5 28.5 31.1 67.5 50.3 50.3 39.1 11.4 9.8 9.8 8.3 45.3 34.1 34.1 26.6
KEI Industries HOLD 3,148 3,234 2.7 283.9 80.5 94.1 94.1 107.5 5.8 7.2 7.2 8.2 8.4 10.5 10.5 11.9 64.3 79.9 79.9 91.4 345.1 418.5 418.5 502.4 20.3 20.9 20.9 19.8 27.0 27.6 27.6 26.3 49.0 39.4 39.4 34.5 9.1 7.5 7.5 6.3 33.3 26.8 26.8 23.2
Poly cab India Acc 4,912 6,021 22.6 735.6 176.5 204.0 204.0 237.9 17.1 19.6 19.6 23.1 24.5 28.1 28.1 32.7 113.9 130.9 130.9 154.1 544.5 656.9 656.9 788.5 23.1 21.8 21.8 21.3 31.4 29.8 29.8 29.2 43.1 37.5 37.5 31.9 9.0 7.5 7.5 6.2 29.1 25.0 25.0 21.0
R R Kabel BUY 1,565 1,872 19.7 176.5 69.2 86.7 86.7 100.9 3.3 4.6 4.6 6.0 5.1 7.1 7.1 9.0 29.4 40.9 40.9 52.8 171.9 212.8 212.8 265.7 19.7 21.3 21.3 22.1 22.5 24.9 24.9 27.0 53.3 38.2 38.2 29.6 9.1 7.4 7.4 5.9 34.7 25.0 25.0 19.4
Voltas HOLD 1,012 1,003 (0.9) 334.8 116.9 128.4 128.4 144.0 5.1 7.8 7.8 9.4 6.5 9.8 9.8 11.2 15.3 23.4 23.4 28.5 176.1 193.1 193.1 214.6 9.0 12.7 12.7 14.0 14.2 17.8 17.8 18.3 66.2 43.2 43.2 35.5 5.7 5.2 5.2 4.7 51.2 34.2 34.2 29.7
January 10, 2024 41

India Strategy
Rating
Consumer Staples
Asian Paints Acc 3,287 3,466 5.4 3,152.7 367.7 401.1 401.1 444.1 55.1 58.2 58.2 60.0 79.2 84.0 84.0 90.2 57.5 60.6 60.6 62.6 196.9 224.6 224.6 249.2 31.6 28.8 28.8 26.4 38.7 36.0 36.0 33.3 57.2 54.2 54.2 52.5 16.7 14.6 14.6 13.2 39.2 36.9 36.9 34.4
Britannia Industries HOLD 5,087 5,130 0.8 1,225.4 173.9 191.7 191.7 212.4 21.9 23.9 23.9 27.5 32.6 34.8 34.8 39.2 90.9 99.4 99.4 114.0 165.4 189.5 189.5 219.2 58.3 56.0 56.0 55.8 43.5 46.7 46.7 52.9 55.9 51.2 51.2 44.6 30.7 26.8 26.8 23.2 37.7 35.2 35.2 31.0
Colgate Palmoliv e Reduce 2,396 2,140 (10.7) 651.7 56.2 60.1 60.1 64.8 12.7 13.8 13.8 14.9 18.1 19.5 19.5 21.0 46.5 50.8 50.8 54.6 69.9 77.8 77.8 85.6 70.0 68.7 68.7 66.8 90.2 88.2 88.2 85.8 51.5 47.2 47.2 43.9 34.3 30.8 30.8 28.0 35.3 32.6 32.6 30.2
Dabur India Acc 547 617 12.6 969.8 128.4 142.1 142.1 157.8 19.5 22.6 22.6 25.7 24.7 28.7 28.7 32.5 11.0 12.8 12.8 14.5 57.0 63.8 63.8 71.6 20.4 21.2 21.2 21.5 19.6 20.9 20.9 21.6 49.7 42.8 42.8 37.7 9.6 8.6 8.6 7.6 39.2 33.7 33.7 29.7
Av enue Supermarts BUY 3,822 4,484 17.3 2,477.6 506.1 617.7 617.7 759.8 25.3 32.0 32.0 40.9 40.8 50.9 50.9 64.0 39.0 49.4 49.4 63.0 287.0 336.5 336.5 389.5 14.6 15.9 15.9 17.4 19.2 20.9 20.9 22.9 97.9 77.3 77.3 60.6 13.3 11.4 11.4 9.8 60.5 48.5 48.5 38.6
Emami Acc 548 565 3.1 241.9 35.9 39.4 39.4 43.3 8.1 8.7 8.7 9.8 9.9 10.9 10.9 12.1 18.3 19.8 19.8 22.1 59.7 66.8 66.8 73.8 32.8 31.3 31.3 31.4 31.8 31.7 31.7 32.0 29.9 27.7 27.7 24.8 9.2 8.2 8.2 7.4 23.5 20.9 20.9 18.6
Hindustan Unilev er HOLD 2,577 2,786 8.1 6,056.9 618.6 683.2 683.2 751.4 105.1 116.9 116.9 127.6 147.4 165.8 165.8 182.1 44.7 49.8 49.8 54.3 218.2 222.7 222.7 227.7 20.7 22.6 22.6 24.1 26.8 29.6 29.6 31.9 57.6 51.8 51.8 47.5 11.8 11.6 11.6 11.3 40.5 35.9 35.9 32.5
ITC Acc 463 487 5.0 5,764.0 674.8 733.8 733.8 793.8 205.9 223.4 223.4 241.5 258.2 282.1 282.1 305.9 16.6 17.9 17.9 19.4 55.6 59.7 59.7 63.6 30.1 31.1 31.1 31.4 35.1 36.6 36.6 37.1 28.0 25.8 25.8 23.9 8.3 7.8 7.8 7.3 21.5 19.6 19.6 18.0
Jubilant FoodWorks HOLD 523 526 0.6 345.0 54.0 65.1 65.1 75.9 2.9 4.3 4.3 5.9 11.3 14.3 14.3 17.0 4.4 6.5 6.5 8.9 36.3 41.5 41.5 48.8 12.7 16.7 16.7 19.7 24.9 29.9 29.9 32.3 119.7 80.4 80.4 58.8 14.4 12.6 12.6 10.7 30.2 23.6 23.6 19.5
Kansai Nerolac Paints Acc 338 346 2.3 273.0 75.2 81.7 81.7 89.4 7.6 8.2 8.2 8.9 11.5 12.3 12.3 13.2 9.4 10.2 10.2 11.0 69.7 75.7 75.7 81.2 14.8 14.0 14.0 14.0 18.7 17.6 17.6 17.6 36.1 33.2 33.2 30.8 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.2 22.7 21.2 21.2 19.6
Marico HOLD 531 556 4.7 685.4 100.7 113.4 113.4 126.9 15.2 15.8 15.8 17.6 21.2 22.2 22.2 24.8 11.8 12.2 12.2 13.6 31.2 32.5 32.5 33.6 38.8 38.4 38.4 41.2 44.7 44.9 44.9 48.5 45.1 43.5 43.5 39.0 17.0 16.4 16.4 15.8 31.9 30.3 30.3 27.1
Metro Brands HOLD 1,260 1,187 (5.8) 342.4 24.6 29.9 29.9 35.8 3.5 4.4 4.4 5.5 7.3 8.9 8.9 10.8 12.8 16.3 16.3 20.1 65.8 77.1 77.1 90.7 20.9 22.9 22.9 23.9 29.3 31.6 31.6 32.8 98.5 77.1 77.1 62.7 19.2 16.3 16.3 13.9 45.7 37.0 37.0 30.0
Mold-tek Packaging HOLD 889 918 3.2 29.5 7.2 8.9 8.9 10.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.1 20.9 26.2 26.2 31.9 174.8 183.0 183.0 195.8 12.2 14.7 14.7 16.8 14.9 16.6 16.6 19.3 42.7 33.9 33.9 27.9 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.5 21.8 17.8 17.8 14.9
Nestle India Acc 2,578 2,679 3.9 2,485.7 194.0 219.9 219.9 246.1 30.1 33.3 33.3 37.8 45.7 51.9 51.9 59.0 31.2 34.6 34.6 39.2 31.3 43.8 43.8 57.9 109.7 92.1 92.1 77.2 149.4 128.0 128.0 107.3 82.7 74.5 74.5 65.7 82.3 58.8 58.8 44.6 54.2 47.9 47.9 42.0
Pidilite Industries HOLD 2,709 2,704 (0.2) 1,377.1 125.4 139.2 139.2 154.8 19.2 22.4 22.4 26.4 27.7 31.7 31.7 36.6 37.8 44.0 44.0 51.8 168.4 198.0 198.0 232.6 24.3 24.0 24.0 24.1 30.7 29.9 29.9 29.4 71.7 61.6 61.6 52.3 16.1 13.7 13.7 11.6 48.9 42.4 42.4 36.3
Restaurant Brands Asia Acc 117 145 24.5 57.7 18.8 24.0 24.0 30.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 2.4 3.4 3.4 4.4 -1.0 -0.4 -0.4 0.6 37.0 36.6 36.6 37.1 -2.7 -1.0 -1.0 1.5 1.6 4.7 4.7 8.0 (112.8) (305.4) (305.4) 205.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 23.3 17.1 17.1 13.1
Titan Company Acc 3,714 3,640 (2.0) 3,305.9 478.0 563.7 563.7 652.3 37.3 47.5 47.5 56.0 54.8 69.3 69.3 80.8 41.9 53.3 53.3 62.9 163.8 204.2 204.2 251.1 28.0 29.0 29.0 27.7 23.6 24.4 24.4 24.8 88.7 69.7 69.7 59.0 22.7 18.2 18.2 14.8 61.9 48.8 48.8 41.6
Westlife Foodw orld HOLD 816 839 2.7 127.3 25.1 29.5 29.5 35.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.9 4.1 5.1 5.1 6.3 6.3 8.4 8.4 12.0 39.1 44.6 44.6 52.4 16.7 20.1 20.1 24.7 28.5 34.7 34.7 41.2 129.5 97.0 97.0 68.1 20.8 18.3 18.3 15.6 31.5 25.2 25.2 20.1
Education
Nav neet Education BUY 157 206 31.3 35.5 18.4 20.2 20.2 22.7 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.3 4.0 4.0 4.7 7.8 11.2 11.2 12.5 59.0 67.6 67.6 77.1 14.1 17.7 17.7 17.4 18.1 20.7 20.7 21.1 20.2 14.0 14.0 12.5 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.0 11.4 9.0 9.0 7.7
S Chand and Company BUY 308 362 17.7 10.8 7.2 8.6 8.6 9.8 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.9 17.9 26.1 26.1 30.0 269.7 292.8 292.8 319.8 6.8 9.3 9.3 9.8 6.5 8.7 8.7 9.3 17.2 11.8 11.8 10.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 8.3 6.2 6.2 5.2
Media
Nazara Technologies HOLD 865 835 (3.5) 63.5 12.4 14.5 14.5 16.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.6 13.0 13.3 13.3 17.6 232.8 246.1 246.1 263.7 6.8 5.6 5.6 6.9 7.7 7.9 7.9 10.2 66.3 65.1 65.1 49.1 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.3 30.2 25.3 25.3 19.1
PVR Inox Acc 1,549 1,923 24.2 151.7 64.9 74.6 74.6 84.6 2.0 4.7 4.7 6.7 20.7 24.6 24.6 27.8 20.2 47.8 47.8 68.6 768.9 814.3 814.3 880.5 2.6 5.9 5.9 7.8 6.0 8.1 8.1 9.5 76.6 32.4 32.4 22.6 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 11.2 9.3 9.3 8.2
Zee Entertainment EnterprisesBUY 260 330 27.1 249.6 85.8 95.0 95.0 104.3 5.6 10.7 10.7 13.4 10.0 16.9 16.9 20.3 5.9 11.1 11.1 14.0 114.5 122.9 122.9 133.4 5.2 9.4 9.4 10.9 6.3 11.7 11.7 13.5 44.3 23.4 23.4 18.6 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 24.2 14.4 14.4 11.8
Metals & Mining

Hindalco Industries BUY 580 673 16.1 1,287.7 2,222.3 2,398.1 2,398.1 2,555.9 91.5 114.9 114.9 125.9 224.0 264.2 264.2 281.1 41.2 51.8 51.8 56.7 465.3 513.5 513.5 565.8 9.2 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.3 12.1 12.1 12.6 14.1 11.2 11.2 10.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 7.3 6.0 6.0 5.1
Jindal Stainless Acc 616 583 (5.3) 507.1 411.1 477.3 477.3 532.2 30.6 38.5 38.5 46.1 52.1 61.9 61.9 71.4 37.2 46.7 46.7 56.0 182.1 228.8 228.8 284.8 22.7 22.7 22.7 21.8 24.8 25.1 25.1 26.7 16.6 13.2 13.2 11.0 3.4 2.7 2.7 2.2 10.6 8.3 8.3 6.9
Jindal Steel & Pow er BUY 731 826 13.0 734.7 547.7 585.5 585.5 650.2 49.9 63.3 63.3 77.4 98.5 123.2 123.2 142.7 49.6 63.0 63.0 77.0 431.8 490.8 490.8 562.8 12.1 13.7 13.7 14.6 14.0 16.5 16.5 17.9 14.7 11.6 11.6 9.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 8.4 6.8 6.8 5.7
JSW Steel BUY 830 992 19.5 2,005.8 1,849.7 2,158.0 2,158.0 2,492.2 122.6 164.7 164.7 186.1 300.4 369.7 369.7 414.9 50.7 68.1 68.1 77.0 319.1 382.2 382.2 452.2 17.2 19.4 19.4 18.4 14.7 17.1 17.1 17.6 16.4 12.2 12.2 10.8 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.8 8.7 7.1 7.1 6.0
National Aluminium Co. Acc 131 101 (22.4) 240.0 129.2 134.7 134.7 151.5 14.8 17.1 17.1 20.5 23.9 28.8 28.8 34.1 8.1 9.3 9.3 11.2 76.3 81.4 81.4 87.9 10.9 11.8 11.8 13.2 13.9 15.8 15.8 17.6 16.2 14.0 14.0 11.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 9.4 7.9 7.9 6.7
NMDC BUY 211 261 23.6 617.9 214.5 242.6 242.6 263.8 55.5 65.9 65.9 79.3 73.9 88.0 88.0 105.4 18.9 22.5 22.5 27.1 88.2 100.7 100.7 115.7 22.9 23.8 23.8 25.0 30.8 32.9 32.9 34.8 11.1 9.4 9.4 7.8 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.8 7.3 5.9 5.9 4.6
Steel Authority of India Acc 115 95 (17.6) 475.2 1,116.6 1,259.7 1,259.7 1,287.6 25.7 43.9 43.9 41.1 98.1 122.7 122.7 121.1 6.2 10.6 10.6 10.0 132.3 140.5 140.5 147.9 4.8 7.8 7.8 6.9 6.9 9.3 9.3 8.7 18.5 10.8 10.8 11.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 7.9 6.4 6.4 6.2
Tata Steel Acc 134 140 4.7 1,637.7 2,428.5 2,694.7 2,694.7 2,872.1 67.5 144.6 144.6 183.4 272.6 349.4 349.4 402.1 5.5 11.8 11.8 15.0 83.8 92.6 92.6 103.6 6.6 13.4 13.4 15.3 9.7 13.6 13.6 15.7 24.3 11.3 11.3 8.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 8.4 6.5 6.5 5.6
Oil & Gas

Bharat Petroleum Corporation SELL 451 371 (17.8) 960.9 4,221.6 4,091.0 4,091.0 4,101.3 246.1 99.0 99.0 96.8 388.1 181.3 181.3 182.5 115.6 46.5 46.5 45.5 311.8 338.0 338.0 364.8 41.1 14.3 14.3 12.9 26.8 8.7 8.7 8.2 3.9 9.7 9.7 9.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 3.8 7.9 7.9 7.7
GAIL (India) HOLD 160 155 (3.1) 1,044.0 1,345.8 1,388.5 1,388.5 1,427.2 90.7 81.2 81.2 82.5 132.0 119.8 119.8 123.6 13.9 12.3 12.3 12.5 95.1 103.0 103.0 111.8 15.4 12.5 12.5 11.7 14.3 11.3 11.3 10.7 11.5 13.0 13.0 12.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 9.0 10.1 10.1 9.6
Gujarat Gas HOLD 515 473 (8.2) 354.7 166.1 186.2 186.2 207.3 10.8 12.2 12.2 13.6 18.6 20.9 20.9 22.8 15.7 17.7 17.7 19.7 112.6 125.0 125.0 138.8 14.6 14.9 14.9 14.9 18.7 19.4 19.4 19.3 32.8 29.1 29.1 26.1 4.6 4.1 4.1 3.7 18.5 16.3 16.3 14.6
Gujarat State Petronet Acc 319 374 17.4 179.6 16.9 18.4 18.4 18.4 12.0 11.2 11.2 11.0 14.7 16.1 16.1 16.1 21.2 19.9 19.9 19.5 179.4 193.3 193.3 207.0 12.3 10.7 10.7 9.7 13.0 13.0 13.0 11.9 15.0 16.0 16.0 16.4 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 11.5 10.3 10.3 10.1
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation
SELL 431 276 (35.9) 611.1 4,143.4 4,337.9 4,337.9 4,158.0 156.2 82.4 82.4 79.3 242.1 156.8 156.8 158.0 110.1 58.1 58.1 55.9 308.3 352.2 352.2 394.1 41.1 17.6 17.6 15.0 17.9 8.0 8.0 7.0 3.9 7.4 7.4 7.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 5.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Indraprastha Gas HOLD 418 416 (0.3) 292.5 145.4 151.1 151.1 160.6 19.7 19.2 19.2 20.6 27.8 27.3 27.3 29.2 28.2 27.4 27.4 29.4 121.0 140.2 140.2 160.8 25.4 21.0 21.0 19.6 30.4 25.3 25.3 23.6 14.8 15.2 15.2 14.2 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.6 9.4 9.5 9.5 8.7
Indian Oil Corporation SELL 131 94 (28.0) 1,797.9 9,055.0 9,231.8 9,231.8 9,411.9 379.2 200.0 200.0 194.1 656.7 430.0 430.0 431.3 27.5 14.5 14.5 14.1 116.8 125.7 125.7 134.4 25.2 12.0 12.0 10.8 16.9 8.0 8.0 7.0 4.7 9.0 9.0 9.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.7 7.0 7.0 6.9
Mahanagar Gas Reduce 1,180 1,065 (9.7) 116.5 56.9 52.2 52.2 53.2 12.1 8.8 8.8 8.8 17.5 13.3 13.3 13.5 123.0 88.7 88.7 88.6 492.3 545.6 545.6 598.7 27.0 17.1 17.1 15.5 33.0 20.4 20.4 18.3 9.6 13.3 13.3 13.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.0 6.4 8.3 8.3 8.0
Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals
SELL 134 106 (20.7) 235.2 881.8 925.0 925.0 927.3 30.2 23.7 23.7 22.6 61.1 49.7 49.7 50.0 17.2 13.5 13.5 12.9 69.3 79.7 79.7 89.6 27.5 18.2 18.2 15.3 17.9 13.0 13.0 12.5 7.8 9.9 9.9 10.4 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.5 5.9 6.8 6.8 6.3
Oil India HOLD 365 379 3.9 412.4 235.4 235.2 235.2 242.0 27.1 57.5 57.5 65.3 104.8 90.8 90.8 101.2 24.0 50.9 50.9 57.8 353.3 383.9 383.9 418.6 7.3 13.8 13.8 14.4 18.1 13.6 13.6 14.5 15.2 7.2 7.2 6.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 4.6 5.1 5.1 4.4
Oil & Natural Gas CorporationBUY 212 259 22.0 2,722.0 6,487.4 6,831.9 6,831.9 6,773.1 680.6 602.6 602.6 581.3 1,188.8 1,142.6 1,142.6 1,089.0 53.0 47.0 47.0 45.3 248.7 275.1 275.1 302.9 22.7 17.9 17.9 15.7 20.8 17.8 17.8 16.4 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5
Petronet LNG Reduce 234 208 (11.1) 351.0 557.7 550.9 550.9 564.2 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.2 47.2 47.3 47.3 48.2 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.8 110.6 121.7 121.7 132.8 19.6 17.7 17.7 16.4 24.6 21.8 21.8 19.8 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.4
Reliance Industries Acc 2,650 2,718 2.6 17,930.6 9,316.8 9,802.0 9,802.0 10,267.7 659.9 718.1 718.1 804.6 1,583.5 1,713.4 1,713.4 1,848.9 97.5 106.1 106.1 118.9 1,304.7 1,404.1 1,404.1 1,515.5 7.7 7.8 7.8 8.1 9.0 9.2 9.2 9.3 27.2 25.0 25.0 22.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 13.2 11.9 11.9 10.7
January 10, 2024 42

India Strategy
Rating
Pharma
Aurobindo Pharma Acc 1,123 1,065 (5.2) 658.0 283.4 305.5 305.5 327.1 29.2 34.8 34.8 38.6 53.9 61.5 61.5 66.7 49.8 59.4 59.4 65.9 502.1 553.3 553.3 611.1 10.4 11.3 11.3 11.3 12.0 13.2 13.2 13.4 22.5 18.9 18.9 17.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.8 12.1 10.5 10.5 9.5
Cipla BUY 1,329 1,350 1.6 1,072.9 259.1 284.9 284.9 308.0 38.7 43.4 43.4 47.2 59.9 66.6 66.6 72.1 47.9 53.7 53.7 58.5 327.0 368.8 368.8 414.1 15.5 15.4 15.4 14.9 19.0 19.1 19.1 18.6 27.7 24.7 24.7 22.7 4.1 3.6 3.6 3.2 17.6 15.5 15.5 14.0
Div i's Laboratories Reduce 3,903 3,150 (19.3) 1,036.0 78.1 90.6 90.6 104.2 16.8 21.4 21.4 26.0 22.8 29.3 29.3 35.9 63.3 80.5 80.5 97.9 506.8 545.1 545.1 600.9 12.8 15.3 15.3 17.1 14.4 17.7 17.7 20.2 61.7 48.5 48.5 39.9 7.7 7.2 7.2 6.5 43.5 33.9 33.9 27.6
Dr. Reddy 's Laboratories Reduce 5,793 5,300 (8.5) 965.1 273.4 292.7 292.7 315.7 54.6 55.1 55.1 56.9 78.6 81.3 81.3 82.6 327.5 331.0 331.0 341.4 1,668.0 1,947.2 1,947.2 2,236.8 21.4 18.3 18.3 16.3 23.9 20.9 20.9 18.2 17.7 17.5 17.5 17.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.6 11.3 10.5 10.5 9.8
Eris Lifesciences BUY 908 1,050 15.6 123.5 20.1 23.7 23.7 26.7 4.0 4.4 4.4 5.7 7.0 8.4 8.4 9.8 29.6 32.4 32.4 42.2 184.1 209.5 209.5 242.8 17.1 16.5 16.5 18.7 16.5 19.0 19.0 21.9 30.7 28.0 28.0 21.5 4.9 4.3 4.3 3.7 18.7 15.2 15.2 12.7
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Reduce 880 570 (35.2) 248.2 142.9 155.5 155.5 168.5 9.9 11.8 11.8 13.4 26.0 29.2 29.2 32.1 35.0 41.7 41.7 47.3 366.0 403.1 403.1 445.7 10.0 10.8 10.8 11.2 13.7 14.6 14.6 15.2 25.1 21.1 21.1 18.6 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.0 10.5 9.2 9.2 8.2
Indoco Remedies BUY 374 385 3.1 34.4 18.7 20.7 20.7 23.2 1.3 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.8 3.6 3.6 4.1 13.7 19.8 19.8 23.2 123.1 140.7 140.7 161.6 11.7 15.0 15.0 15.4 13.8 16.8 16.8 17.6 27.2 18.8 18.8 16.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.3 13.6 10.4 10.4 9.1
Ipca Laboratories HOLD 1,116 1,060 (5.0) 283.2 79.0 95.3 95.3 108.6 6.2 9.4 9.4 12.3 12.9 19.2 19.2 23.6 24.6 37.1 37.1 48.6 245.5 272.8 272.8 311.7 10.3 14.3 14.3 16.6 12.1 18.0 18.0 21.5 45.4 30.1 30.1 23.0 4.5 4.1 4.1 3.6 22.6 15.1 15.1 12.2
J.B. Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals
BUY 1,683 1,800 7.0 260.5 35.0 39.7 39.7 45.0 5.7 7.2 7.2 8.7 9.0 10.8 10.8 12.7 36.6 46.7 46.7 56.5 181.8 213.5 213.5 254.9 21.4 23.6 23.6 24.1 25.3 28.6 28.6 30.0 46.0 36.0 36.0 29.8 9.3 7.9 7.9 6.6 28.9 23.7 23.7 19.7
Lupin HOLD 1,405 1,200 (14.6) 639.4 193.8 212.0 212.0 229.6 17.9 21.5 21.5 24.0 35.1 39.4 39.4 42.7 39.2 47.2 47.2 52.6 311.8 352.0 352.0 397.6 13.4 14.2 14.2 14.0 14.5 15.4 15.4 15.6 35.8 29.8 29.8 26.7 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 18.9 16.4 16.4 14.8
Sun Pharmaceutical IndustriesBUY 1,325 1,280 (3.4) 3,178.8 488.1 540.4 540.4 598.3 90.4 109.9 109.9 126.4 131.0 150.8 150.8 173.4 39.2 45.8 45.8 52.7 257.0 286.5 286.5 322.7 15.4 16.9 16.9 17.3 16.0 17.5 17.5 18.8 33.8 28.9 28.9 25.2 5.2 4.6 4.6 4.1 24.1 20.6 20.6 17.5
Torrent Pharmaceuticals BUY 2,352 2,250 (4.3) 795.0 108.5 122.1 122.1 137.3 16.5 20.8 20.8 25.9 33.5 38.7 38.7 44.5 48.8 61.4 61.4 76.7 204.1 235.1 235.1 279.1 25.2 28.0 28.0 29.8 22.5 27.1 27.1 31.4 48.2 38.3 38.3 30.7 11.5 10.0 10.0 8.4 24.9 21.2 21.2 18.1
Zy dus Lifesciences Acc 707 670 (5.2) 715.4 193.3 205.2 205.2 217.7 34.5 35.3 35.3 35.8 49.5 51.0 51.0 51.7 34.1 34.9 34.9 35.4 202.3 231.7 231.7 261.6 18.2 16.1 16.1 14.4 20.9 18.9 18.9 17.0 20.7 20.3 20.3 20.0 3.5 3.1 3.1 2.7 14.2 13.4 13.4 12.9
Hospitals
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise BUY 5,801 6,000 3.4 834.1 193.8 223.9 223.9 258.7 9.2 15.4 15.4 20.4 24.7 33.1 33.1 40.9 63.8 107.4 107.4 142.2 475.3 560.4 560.4 677.8 14.1 20.7 20.7 23.0 19.6 26.4 26.4 30.3 90.9 54.0 54.0 40.8 12.2 10.4 10.4 8.6 34.5 25.7 25.7 20.6
Aster DM Healthcare BUY 408 430 5.3 204.0 134.4 147.8 147.8 163.3 4.1 7.6 7.6 9.8 18.5 21.8 21.8 24.9 10.3 16.6 16.6 21.0 94.8 107.7 107.7 124.9 8.8 15.0 15.0 16.9 14.3 17.1 17.1 18.5 39.5 24.5 24.5 19.4 4.3 3.8 3.8 3.3 12.2 10.2 10.2 8.7
Fortis Healthcare BUY 424 400 (5.7) 320.3 69.1 77.5 77.5 86.3 6.4 8.3 8.3 10.2 12.8 15.1 15.1 17.6 8.5 11.0 11.0 13.5 104.4 115.4 115.4 128.9 8.4 10.0 10.0 11.1 11.5 13.2 13.2 14.5 50.2 38.5 38.5 31.4 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.3 25.2 20.8 20.8 17.3
HealthCare Global EnterprisesBUY 360 420 16.6 50.1 18.8 21.5 21.5 23.3 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.8 3.5 4.2 4.2 4.7 4.8 9.2 9.2 12.7 66.6 75.9 75.9 88.6 7.4 12.9 12.9 15.5 13.7 17.3 17.3 18.5 75.3 39.0 39.0 28.3 5.4 4.7 4.7 4.1 15.3 12.6 12.6 10.9
Jupiter Life Line Hospitals BUY 1,116 1,310 17.4 73.2 10.3 12.3 12.3 15.0 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.7 25.2 32.1 32.1 39.0 161.6 191.4 191.4 228.1 23.2 18.2 18.2 18.6 17.4 18.4 18.4 19.9 44.3 34.7 34.7 28.6 6.9 5.8 5.8 4.9 30.1 23.0 23.0 18.5
Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences
BUY 2,025 2,000 (1.2) 162.1 25.5 29.1 29.1 32.4 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.6 6.9 8.0 8.0 9.1 44.0 49.9 49.9 57.2 246.9 288.7 288.7 334.3 19.3 18.6 18.6 18.4 22.2 21.7 21.7 22.6 46.0 40.6 40.6 35.4 8.2 7.0 7.0 6.1 24.5 21.2 21.2 18.4
Max Healthcare Institute BUY 734 675 (8.1) 712.9 68.6 80.6 80.6 97.5 13.9 16.1 16.1 19.6 18.9 22.0 22.0 26.5 14.4 16.5 16.5 20.2 95.8 110.1 110.1 127.5 16.0 16.1 16.1 17.0 17.4 18.3 18.3 19.7 51.1 44.4 44.4 36.4 7.7 6.7 6.7 5.8 37.1 31.5 31.5 25.8
Naray ana Hruday alay a BUY 1,240 1,250 0.8 253.4 51.6 59.3 59.3 65.9 8.2 8.5 8.5 10.0 11.6 12.8 12.8 15.0 40.2 41.8 41.8 48.7 143.3 184.0 184.0 231.5 32.5 25.5 25.5 23.4 28.5 25.9 25.9 26.4 30.8 29.7 29.7 25.5 8.7 6.7 6.7 5.4 22.1 19.9 19.9 16.5
Travel & Tourism

Chalet Hotels BUY 736 753 2.4 150.8 14.5 17.4 17.4 19.7 2.6 3.6 3.6 4.2 6.1 7.8 7.8 8.7 12.6 17.6 17.6 20.6 90.3 106.1 106.1 124.6 15.2 17.9 17.9 17.8 10.3 12.6 12.6 13.3 58.3 41.8 41.8 35.8 8.1 6.9 6.9 5.9 29.0 22.9 22.9 20.3
InterGlobe Av iation Acc 3,082 3,053 (0.9) 1,188.3 648.2 729.6 729.6 791.7 65.3 82.6 82.6 65.8 147.8 182.8 182.8 181.5 169.4 214.2 214.2 170.7 7.4 221.6 221.6 392.3 -219.1 187.1 187.1 55.6 -935.0 174.1 174.1 74.0 18.2 14.4 14.4 18.1 417.6 13.9 13.9 7.9 5.8 3.7 3.7 3.0
Indian Railw ay Catering and Tourism
HOLD Corporation942 749 (20.5) 753.4 41.2 45.7 45.7 48.9 11.7 12.6 12.6 13.3 14.7 16.2 16.2 17.3 14.6 15.7 15.7 16.6 39.4 48.8 48.8 58.8 41.5 35.7 35.7 30.9 50.1 44.0 44.0 38.3 64.5 59.8 59.8 56.6 23.9 19.3 19.3 16.0 49.6 44.5 44.5 41.3
Lemon Tree Hotels BUY 134 141 5.4 106.0 10.9 13.2 13.2 14.7 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.8 5.2 6.7 6.7 7.6 1.9 2.8 2.8 3.6 12.7 15.3 15.3 18.6 16.1 20.0 20.0 21.2 15.6 19.3 19.3 22.3 71.1 47.9 47.9 37.3 10.6 8.7 8.7 7.2 23.3 17.8 17.8 15.2
Safari Industries (India) BUY 1,885 2,375 26.0 89.4 15.5 18.7 18.7 22.9 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.4 4.3 36.4 46.0 46.0 59.8 124.9 168.7 168.7 225.5 33.9 31.4 31.4 30.4 35.0 34.3 34.3 34.5 51.8 40.9 40.9 31.5 15.1 11.2 11.2 8.4 32.5 26.5 26.5 20.3
V.I.P. Industries HOLD 567 674 19.0 80.3 22.8 25.1 25.1 28.3 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.8 2.8 3.8 3.8 4.7 9.1 15.4 15.4 20.1 52.7 63.6 63.6 79.2 18.6 26.4 26.4 28.1 18.6 24.3 24.3 27.7 62.1 36.9 36.9 28.2 10.7 8.9 8.9 7.2 30.1 21.9 21.9 17.6
Telecom
Bharti Airtel Acc 1,064 1,088 2.2 6,096.6 1,549.5 1,879.1 1,879.1 2,151.9 71.9 223.4 223.4 282.7 813.6 1,003.2 1,003.2 1,162.0 12.5 38.6 38.6 48.4 179.2 207.0 207.0 253.3 8.0 20.1 20.1 21.1 11.6 15.1 15.1 16.6 84.8 27.6 27.6 22.0 5.9 5.1 5.1 4.2 9.8 7.7 7.7 6.7
January 10, 2024 43

India Strategy
Notes
January 10, 2024 44

India Strategy
Notes
January 10, 2024 45

India Strategy
Notes
January 10, 2024 46

India Strategy
PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature
Buy : > 15%
Accumulate : 5% to 15%
Hold : +5% to -5%
Reduce : -5% to -15%
Sell : < -15%
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly
January 10, 2024 47

India Strategy
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January 10, 2024

Digitally signed by Amnish Aggarwal
Amnish Aggarwal
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Date: 2024.01.11 13:32:54 +05'30'

India Strategy - in Fine Fettle - PL India

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January 10, 2024 2

January 10, 2024 3

 NIFTY is currently trading at 18.1x 1-year forward EPS, which is at 10.8%

 Model Portfolio: We increase weight and remain overweight on Banks, Cap

El Nino and Elections are major Headwinds

January 10, 2024 4

Indian consumer moving up the value chain

 Generational Financial Attitudes: There's a notable generational shift in

We expect strong premiumisation to continue sweeping the hinterlands in the years

Real estate – move towards premium/luxury apartments

House sale >1.5Cr. are considered Luxury houses

January 10, 2024 5

Housing demands in India

<5mn 5-10mn >10mn

Auto – PV shift towards UV

Mini Compact Sedan Compact UV TOTAL % share of PV % share of UV

1,000 4000 77% 77% 78% 73% 90%

Source: MOSPI, PL Source: MOSPI, PL

January 10, 2024 6

Bikes – entry level bikes de-growing

 250cc and above segment has grown at a CAGR of 15.9%

CAGR (FY14-FY23) <250cc (LHS) 250cc and above (RHS)

4.0% 3.5% 14,000 1,000

Source: MOSPI, PL Source: MOSPI, PL

Travel – Shift from Railways to Air Travel, AC coaches

 In Railways, AC sleeper passengers have grown from 70.8mn in 2010 to

Passengers leaning toward Airline travel Increase in demand for AC coaches

Source: MOSPI, PL Source: MOSPI, PL

January 10, 2024 7

Consumer – fast evolving

Biscuits - Mid premium and premium segments are 80% of market

 Jewellery – Share of branded/ organised jewellery has increased from less

Food ordering and delivery increasing at brisk pace

 Quick commerce – Indian consumer transition from GT to MT, Ecom and

January 10, 2024 8

Economy seems to be in fine fettle

31% growth in Govt capex is driving economy

January 10, 2024 9

USD bn % of GDP (RHS) Employment Demanded

(20) -0.8% -2% 40

Source: MOSPI, PL Source: MOSPI, PL

January 10, 2024 10

Budget/ VOA – Rural, Bottom end and Infra focus

 No major policy changes, continued allocation of funds in existing areas like

 Increased allocation towards fueling growth in manufacturing sectors (esp in

 Improving transport infrastructure in the country (Higher allocation in ports,

Capital Goods, Defense:

 Expect decent increase in capex allocation (~8-9% YoY increase expected on

 Power T&D: capex announcement towards HVDC corridors and enhancing

 Defense: Overall, 5-7% increase can be expected in defense capital outlay,

 Energy Transition: Expected schemes surrounding energy transition and

 Overall, focus to further enhance localization push in manufacturing sectors

January 10, 2024 11

Real Estate & Building Materials

 Increase home loan interest rate rebate from Rs0.2mn to Rs0.5mn

 Release government land for affordable and mid income housing.

 Modify affordable housing limit to Rs10mn from current level of Rs4.5mn

 To increase government spending towards healthcare as % of GDP

 Expansion of Ayushman Bharat Scheme to more sections of society

 Increase in tax deductions on preventive health checkups