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Gail India
Gail India
http://proschoolonline.com
Email ID : mumbai@proschoolonline.com
Mumbai
GAIL has successfully evolved into a major integrated gas company with presence across the natural gas value chain and with
footprints. A financial model of such a company is in great demand in the investment market. This gave us the opportunity to gu
student to come out with a financial model on the company. These exercises help the student at IMS Proschool to hone their fin
modeling skills.
This model is being developed by a financial modeling student at IMS Proschool. This is provided as reference model and is fo
information purpose only. Keeping in view the objective of the reference model, the formulas and linkages of the model are kep
IMS Proschool provides certificate programs in Financial Modeling. The program grooms the candidates for entry level jobs in t
finance sector which require financial analysis and modeling skills. The program aims to impart the necessary skills required to
the role of a Financial Research Analyst. The program equips students with the practical skill sets required to perform financial
modeling and valuation through Excel.
For more details, please contact the address furnished below. You can also email us at the below mentioned em
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GAIL (INDIA) LTD.
Company Overview
(Figures in Rs. Millions.)
Ga
Oth
27,335 Pe
LPG
25,081
183,084 Tra
Ga
Oth
Revenue Forecast
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Natural Gas Trading 121198 127476 183084 205054 246064 295277
Transmission Services - Natural
Gas 21155 21966 25081 34862 45321 61183
Petrochemicals 25702 27031 27335 29574 32531 36110
LPG & Liquid Hydrocarbons 21219 26961 29900 29996 35995 41395
Transmission Services - LPG
3440 3893 3819 4358 5012 5814
Gailtel 254 286 243 193 222 244
Others 5097 5068 5749 402 443 496
Total 198065 212681 275211 304439 365588 440519
s flagship Natural Gas company, integrating all aspects of the Natural Gas value chain (including Exploration & Production, Processing,
nd Marketing) and its related services. In a rapidly changing scenario, we are spearheading the move to a new era of clean fuel
uadrilateral of green energy corridors that connect major consumption centres in India with major gas fields, LNG terminals and other
nts. GAIL is also expanding its business to become a player in the International Market.
nd beyond including Exploration, Production, Transmission, Marketing, Extraction, Processing, Distribution, utilisation including
d Natural Gas related infrastructure, products and services.
Petrochemicals
Gailtel
Others
Petrochemicals
Gailtel
Others
GAIL (INDIA) LTD.
Segment Revenue Model
(Figures in Rs. Millions.) 2006-07 2007-08
APR - JUN JUL - SEPT OCT - DEC JAN - MAR 31st MAR '07 APR - JUN
Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 2006-07A Q1 2007
Segment Revenues
Natural Gas Trading 30,767 29,237 31,494 29,701 121,198 30,067
Transmission Services - Natural Gas 5,009 4,972 6,413 4,762 21,155 4,895
Petrochemicals 5,503 5,456 7,306 7,437 25,702 7,784
LPG & Liquid Hydrocarbons 6,406 4,219 6,261 4,332 21,219 6,752
Transmission Services - LPG 715 816 994 915 3,440 923
Gailtel 51 63 71 69 254 67
Others 742 1,607 1,764 984 5,097 806
Total 49,192 46369 54,302 48,200 198,063 51,293
Less: Inter Segment Revenue 6,519 6,513 7,279 6,844 27,155 6,452
Net sales/income from Operations 42,673 39,856 47,024 41,356 170,908 44,841
Cash and Bank balances 4496 2660 4473 3456 3501 3658
CAPEX 1784 905 2256 2568 115 3401
Total Debt 1917 1338 1266 1200 1186 1172
Inventory Turnover 3210 4060 4007 5063
Valuation Metrics
32,487 31120.1 33,802 127,476 41192.8 44953.8 49507.4 47429.6 183084 46417
5,289 6,022 5,762 21,966 6,214 6,215 6,141 6511 25,081 7331.5
6,402 5,378 7,467 27,031 8,008 6,287 6,227 6,813 27,335 6,226
7,033 5,278 7,898 26,961 7,997 10,902 3,330 7,671 29,900 6,839
896 996 1,079 3,893 855 906 1,065 992 3,819 1,057
76 70 72 286 65 65 64 49 243 38
1,636 1,571 1,055 5,068 1,231 1,929 2,526 63 5,749 100
53,820 50435 57,133 212,681 65563.3 71258.8 68859.6 69529.6 275,211 68009
6,725 5,604 6,784 8,245 7,109 7,677 8,392 8,487 31,663 (7,795)
47,095 44,832 50,349 204,436 58,455 63,582 60,468 61,043 243,548 60,214
A FY 2007-08 A FY 2008
FY 2007 Q1 Q2 6M Q3 9M Q4 FY 2008 Q1 Q2
APR-JUN JUL-SEPT OCT-DEC JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEPT
1604718 424568 452890 877458 429833 1307291 493529 1800820 573071 617261
1304989 171663 365059 39178 342607 879329 377533 1405896 433128 482283
-7526 322 -563 -241 5466 5225 -8213 -2988 2858 -7349
1121412 129390 45029 174419 47246 221665 36070 1191550 49620 55114
29232 6876 8239 15115 9854 24969 22032 47001 8663 11802
161871 35075 58378 93453 38138 131591 38742 170333 39182 47979
0 235285 253976 253976 241903 495879 288902 0 332805 362240
299729 252905 87831 390655 87226 427962 115996 394924 139943 134978
19 60 19 91 20 33 24 22 24 22
10708 2040 2009 4049 1955 6004 1953 7957 1902 1890
57538 14070 14916 28986 13869 42855 14247 57102 14296 13858
231483 236795 70906 357620 71402 379103 99796 329865 123745 119230
54495 9127 18060 27187 18482 45669 9966 55635 11477 4333
285978 245922 88966 384807 89884 424772 109762 385500 135222 123563
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
285978 245922 88966 384807 89884 424772 109762 385500 135222 123563
47311 27547 29708 57255 24150 81405 43093 125354 44394 48928.00
0 514 1684 2198 3463 5661 -5760 0 999 -1156
0 -1404 320 -1084 139 -945 191 0 142 169
238667 219265 57254 326438 62132 338651 72238 260146 89687 75622
238667 219265 57254 326438 62132 338651 72238 260146 89687 75622
8457 8457 8457 8457 8457 8457 8457 8457 8457 8457
0.23 0.04 0.32 0.08 0.30 0.13 0.14 0.21 0.13 0.06
FY 2008-09 A FY 2009-10
6M Q3 9M Q4 FY 2009 Q1 Q2 6M Q3
OCT-DEC JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEPT OCT-DEC
1190332 581602 1771934 623395 2377595 604133 622434 1226567 620571
915411 554568 1469979 519212 1973164 495592 518488 1014080 493520
-4491 6256 1765 2265 500 3839 1354 5193 849
104734 52395 157129 55702 212831 51644 58766 110410 55557
20465 32256 52721 4946 57667 13201 12685 25886 25387
99658 46490 146148 60476 194127 48476 44481 92957 40451
695045 417171 1112216 395823 1508039 378432 401202 779634 371276
274921 27034 301955 104183 404431 108541 103946 212487 127051
23 5 17 17 17 18 17 17 20
3792 1851 5643 3057 8700 1792 1785 3577 1422
28154 13739 41893 14098 55991 14041 14162 28203 14091
242975 11444 254419 87028 339740 92708 87999 180707 111538
15810 437 16247 12964 79662 1991 2216 4207 1787
258785 11881 270666 99992 419402 94699 90215 184914 113325
0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
258785 11881 270666 99992 419402 94699 90215 184914 113325
93322 7561 100883 37752 140032 33982 30940 64922 37111
-157 1372 1215 591 0 -865 412 -453 2720
311 254 565 208 0 0 0
165309 2694 168003 61441 279370 61582 58863 120445 73494
165309 2694 168003 61441 279370 61582 58863 120445 73494
8457 12685 12685 12685 12685 12685 12685 12685 12685
0.10 0.16 0.10 0.21 0.29 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.02
10 E FY 2010-11 E FY 2011-12 E FY 2012-13 E FY 2013-14 E
9M Q4 FY 2010
APR 1,2010- APR 1,2011- APR 1,2012- APR 1,2013-
JAN-MAR
MAR 31,2011 MAR 31,2012 MAR 31,2013 MAR 31,2014
1847138 625000 2472138 3263222 4405350 6167490 8942860
1507600 522430 2030030 2822687 3819437 5470563 7771344
6042 1000.00 7042.00 48948 74891 104847 169914
165967 56280.00 222247.00 293690 396481 555074 804857
51273 40150 91423 195793 308374 431724 626000
133408 50000 183408 261058 396481 555074 804857
1150910 375000 1525910 2023198 2643210 3823844 5365716
339538 102570 442108 440535 585913 696927 1171516
18 16 18 14 13 11 13
4999 1790 6789 7765 6594 5423 5889
42294 14397 56691 57516 58466 59266 60050
292245 86383 378628 375254 520853 632238 1105577
5994 2000.00 7994.00 25000 30000 37000 43000
298239 88383 386622 400254 550853 669238 1148577
0 0 0 0 0
298239 88383 386622 400254 550853 669238 1148577
102033 46236 148269 132084 181781 220849 379030
2267 2720 4987 0 0 0 0
0 0.00 0 0 0 0
193939 39427 233366 268170 369071 448389 769547
193939 39427 233366 268170 369071 448389 769547
12685 12685 12685 12685 12685 12685 12685
0.03 0.05 0.03 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.06
GAIL (INDIA) LTD.
Segment Revenue Model
( Figures in Rs. Millions.) 2006-07 2007-08
APR - JUN JUL - SEPT OCT - DEC JAN - MAR 31st MAR '07 APR - JUN JUL - SEPT
Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 2006-07A Q1 2007 Q2 2007
Segment Revenues
Natural Gas Trading 30,767 29,237 31,494 29,701 121,198 30,067 32,487
Transmission Services - Natural Gas 5,009 4,972 6,413 4,762 21,155 4,895 5,289
Petrochemicals 5,503 5,456 7,306 7,437 25,702 7,784 6,402
LPG & Liquid Hydrocarbons 6,406 4,219 6,261 4,332 21,219 6,752 7,033
Transmission Services - LPG 715 816 994 915 3,440 923 896
Gailtel 51 63 71 69 254 67 76
Others 742 1,607 1,764 984 5,097 806 1,636
Total 49,192 46369 54,302 48,200 198,063 51,293 53,820
Less: Inter Segment Revenue 6,519 6,513 7,279 6,844 27,155 6,452 6,725
Net sales/income from Operations 42,673 39,856 47,024 41,356 170,908 44,841 47,095
Segment Results
Natural Gas Trading 6135 5634 4924 16693
48171 39304 46584
Transmission Services - Natural Gas 32948 45477 27674 106099
Petrochemicals 20205 17425 27745 30076 75246 34305 31953
LPG & Liquid Hydrocarbons 13940 -5454 9048 -7319 -3725 19855 22338
Transmission Services - LPG 3681 4490 6026 4866 15382 5450 5212
Gailtel -3 41 5 54 100 51 138
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 -15250
Total 85994 55585 93935 60275 209795 59661 90975
Interest 2880 2912 2705 2211 10708 2040 2009
Other un-allocable expenditure net off un-allocable
income -2094 -5706 3446 3457 -897 37 0
Total Profit Before Tax 85208 58379 87784 54607 199984 57584 88966
CAPITAL EMPLOYED
Natural Gas Trading 314687 0 356823 0 671510 457797 520280
Petrochemicals 194855 193493 190702 191284 770334 182821 183124
LPG & Liquid Hydrocarbons 113110 100718 102180 89700 405708 101411 108037
Transmission Services - Natural Gas 0 348145 0 370113 718258 0 0
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 385851
Transmission Services - LPG 109001 107365 106716 105095 428177 102776 101090
Gailtel 3055 3078 2934 4745 13812 4427 4335
Total 734708 752799 759355 760937 3007799 849232 1302717
Other Unallocable Items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 734708 752799 759355 760937 3007799 849232 1302717
BSE BSE BSE BSE BSE
31120.1 33,802 127,476 41192.8 44953.8 49507.4 47429.6 183084 46417 49691
6,022 5,762 21,966 6,214 6,215 6,141 6511 25,081 7331.5 8,430
5,378 7,467 27,031 8,008 6,287 6,227 6,813 27,335 6,226 6,157
5,278 7,898 26,961 7,997 10,902 3,330 7,671 29,900 6,839 5,151
996 1,079 3,893 855 906 1,065 992 3,819 1,057 1,029
70 72 286 65 65 64 49 243 38 34
1,571 1,055 5,068 1,231 1,929 2,526 63 5,749 100 142
50435 57,133 212,681 65563.3 71258.8 68859.6 69529.6 275,211 68009 70634
5,604 6,784 8,245 7,109 7,677 8,392 8,487 31,663 (7,795) (8,612)
44,832 50,349 204,436 58,455 63,582 60,468 61,043 243,548 60,214 62,022
-1.19% 13.81% 5.18% 37.00% 38.38% 59.08% 40.32% 43.62% 12.68% 10.54%
-6.10% 20.99% 3.84% 26.95% 17.52% 1.98% 13.01% 14.18% 17.99% 35.63%
-26.39% 0.40% 5.17% 2.88% -1.79% 15.78% -8.75% 1.12% -22.26% -2.08%
-15.70% 82.31% 27.06% 18.45% 55.01% -36.91% -2.87% 10.90% -14.48% -52.75%
0.18% 17.93% 13.18% -7.27% 1.10% 6.97% -8.03% -1.91% 23.60% 13.62%
-0.57% 3.31% 12.58% -2.68% -14.40% -9.67% -31.52% -14.78% -42.11% -47.71%
-10.93% 7.20% -0.57% 52.74% 17.92% 60.76% -94.05% 13.44% -91.84% -92.63%
-7.12% 18.53% 7.38% 27.82% 32.40% 36.53% 21.70% 29.40% 3.73% -0.88%
-23.01% -0.88% -69.64% 10.17% 14.16% 49.75% 25.10% 284.03% -209.65% -212.18%
-4.66% 21.75% 19.62% 30.36% 35.01% 34.88% 21.24% 19.13% 3.01% -2.45%
69.42% 67.13% 62.35% 70.47% 70.70% 81.87% 77.70% 75.17% 77.09% 80.12%
13.43% 11.44% 10.74% 10.63% 9.77% 10.16% 10.67% 10.30% 12.18% 13.59%
12.00% 14.83% 13.22% 13.70% 9.89% 10.30% 11.16% 11.22% 10.34% 9.93%
11.77% 15.69% 13.19% 13.68% 17.15% 5.51% 12.57% 12.28% 11.36% 8.30%
2.22% 2.14% 1.90% 1.46% 1.42% 1.76% 1.63% 1.57% 1.76% 1.66%
0.16% 0.14% 0.14% 0.11% 0.10% 0.11% 0.08% 0.10% 0.06% 0.06%
3.51% 2.09% 2.48% 2.11% 3.03% 4.18% 0.10% 2.36% 0.17% 0.23%
112.50% 113.47% 104.03% 112.16% 112.07% 113.88% 113.90% 113.00% 112.94% 113.89%
12.50% 13.47% 4.03% 12.16% 12.07% 13.88% 13.90% 13.00% -12.94% -13.89%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
INCOME STATEMENT
(Figures in Rs. Crores.)
Equity
No of Equity shares
EPS Basic
GAIL INDIA LTD.
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
(in Rs.crores)
31st MAR '07 31st MAR '08 31st MAR '09 31st MAR '10
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
2006-07A 2007-08 A 2008-09 A 2009-2010E
Particulars
PBT 285978 385500 419402 386622
Tax - non deferred 47311 125354 140032 143282
PAT 238667 260146 279370 243340
Depreciation 57538 57102 55991 56691
Operating Cash Flow 296205 317248 335361 300031
Capex 1784 905 2256 2568
Net cash Flow 294421 316343 333105 297462
Cash Flow / Share 5171 3704 3919 3500
Dividend/dividend tax 0 0 0 0
Increase in equity capital 0 0 423 0
0 0 0 0
82 65 56 84
719 -2765 452 -1093
-14 -18 -13 -6
3500.76 3657.75 3699 3734
424676 502652 830262 56931
428176 506309 833961 60665
GAIL INDIA LTD.
BALANCESHEET
(in Rs.crores)
BALANCESHEET 31st MAR '06 31st MAR '07 31st MAR '08 31st MAR '09 31st MAR '10
2005-06A 2006-07A 2007-08 A 2008-09 A 2009-2010E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Shareholder's funds 9973.3 11392.91 13004.88 14769.63 16571.75
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Fixed Assets 8171.55 9391.31 9749.95 11476.65 13535.77
Gross Block 14469.48 14932.56 16957.86 17603.98 18850.98
Less: Depreciation 6913.52 7478.19 8024.57 8553.66 9062.89
NET BLOCK 7555.96 7454.37 8933.29 9050.32 9788.09
Capital Work -in- Progress 615.59 1936.94 816.66 2426.33 3747.68
SECURED LOANS
BOND SERIES-I
6.10% Non-Convertible Redeemable Bonds 5000 5000 5000 5000
BOND SERIES-II
5.85% Secure Non-Convertible Redeemable Bonds 6000 6000 6000 6000
UNSECURED LOANS
OTHER LOANS & ADVANCES
From Banks:
State Bank Of India, London 62 0 0 0
From Others:
Oil Industry Development Board 2316 1659 1001.30 86
0 0 0 0
72 54 42 36
11072 11054 11042 11036
GAIL INDIA LTD.
Valuation
(in Rs. Crores)
Projection Year 1 2 3 4 5
Discount Factor 0.89 0.79 0.71 0.63 0.56
Present Value of FCF 262,757 244,715 290,795 301,337 448,550
Tax Rate (Tax Expense/EBIT) 40% 38% 34% 34% 34% 34%
PV of Terminal Value
WACC PV of FCF 4,889,578 2% 3% 3%
10.0% 3,297,538 10.0% 92,943 99,770 107,573
11.0% 3,147,900 11.0% 76,846 81,885 87,553
12.2% 2,985,837 12.2% 62,204 65,827 69,843
13.0% 2,875,574 13.0% 54,504 57,463 60,718
14.0% 2,751,593 14.0% 46,562 48,895 51,441
WACC Calculation
WACC 12%
Second Stage
First Stage of Valuation of Valuation
2015E 2016E 2017E Terminal Year
6 7 8
0.50 0.45 0.40
489,248 487,621 460,814
18% 12% 6% 3%
19% 12% 6% 3%
13% 12% 6% 3%
132% 12% 6% 2%
Intrinsic Value
Equity Value 7,870,758
Diluted Shares 12,685
Intrinsic Value
5 5.5 6
572.02 603.26 634.51
538.41 567.47 596.53
502.44 529.18 555.92
478.25 503.44 528.63
451.33 474.81 498.29
GAIL INDIA LTD.
RATIO ANALYSIS
(in Rs.crores)
31st MAR '06 31st MAR '07 31st MAR '08 31st MAR '09 31st MAR '10
RATIOS
2005-06A 2006-07A 2007-08 A 2008-09 A 2009-2010E