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IC Meeting 4a. - Private Credit RFP Wilshire Presentation
IC Meeting 4a. - Private Credit RFP Wilshire Presentation
Search Presentation
December 2023
14,000 ~$4
12,000 TRILLION
GAP
• Un-met financing needs for private companies 10,000
USD ($B)
are flowing to alternative sources of capital, 8,000
resulting in a $4 trillion gap that fuels the private 6,000
debt markets1 4,000
2,000
Deposits, All Commercial Banks Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks
3.0
1.0
0.5
1Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data, as of April 2020 0.0
2Preqin January 2022.
1Target return is estimated unlevered gross IRR based on Wilshire assessment of manager expectations.
There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve the Target Return.
Actual Allocation
Interim Allocation (%) Interim Allocation (%) Strategic Target (%)
Asset Class (%) as of
2023 2024 2025
12/31/2022
US Equity 33.5 32.0 31.0 30.0
Non-US Equity 17.5 18.0 18.0 18.0
Private Equity 10.3 10.0 10.0 10.0
Total Growth Assets 61.3 60.0 59.0 58.0
High Yield Bonds 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0
Bank Loans 3.4 2.5 2.5 2.0
Private Credit 0.4 1.5 2.5 4.0
Total Defensive Growth
6.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Assets
Core Fixed Income 19.5 20.0 20.0 20.0
Cash 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0
Total Defensive Assets 19.8 21.0 21.0 21.0
Private Real Estate 9.1 10.0 10.0 10.0
Private Real Assets 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5
Global Listed Infrastructure 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5
Total Inflation-Sensitive
12.8 13.0 13.0 13.0
Assets
4%
3% Over/Under Allocated -0.7% -0.1% -0.4% -1.2% -0.8%
3%
2% Existing Commitments
2% Net Asset Value 393 714 817 848 748
1%
Capital Calls 368 198 178 43
1%
0% Expected Distributions 101 171 236 237
Jun- 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
23 Total Future Commitments - 600 600 700
PC Allocation (no new commitments) Net Asset Value - 301 687 1,044
Capital Calls - 301 425 453
PC Allocation (with new commitments)
Distributions - - 64 158
Private Credit NAV as of Wilshire’s Q2 2023 report. Of the Direct Lending commitments, assumes a 50/50 split to closed-ended and open-ended funds in 2023-2025, and a 100/0 split in 2026 and thereafter.
*Target size and close dates apply to A4 Pool 3. Terms assume 3-year investment option.
*Yet to be finalized.
MC Credit Partners MC Credit Fund IV Yes North America Commingled Fund Closed-end Net IRR - 10% - 12% 8% ~1.0x Phase I
Angelo Gordon AG Direct Lending Evergreen No North America Commingled Fund Open-ended 10-13% Net IRR 6-8% 2.5x Phase II
CapitalSpring CapitalSpring Senior Income II No North America Commingled Fund Closed-end To be discussed ~10% 1x Phase II
7-10% avg. coupon with
11-12% gross yield based
Comvest Comvest Credit Partners VII No North America Commingled Fund Open-ended 10-11% Net IRR 1x Phase II
on current market
conditions
• Limited availability of debt financing from banks due to the regional banking crisis and decreased risk appetite has provided direct lenders with an
opportunity to secure more attractive pricing and terms
• A continued upstream movement of traditional middle-market lenders has created favorable risk/return potential for lower-market, sector-focused
Senior Direct Lending groups and non-sponsored lenders – or those focused on complex transactions – which have negotiating power in price and deal structuring
• Macro-economic uncertainty and heightened volatility raise the probability of an economic downturn, emphasizing the need for heightened due
diligence, risk controls and leverage cost; thus, increasing relative attractiveness of senior capital
• The current macroeconomic backdrop confers highly favorable tailwinds for opportunistic credit investors amid the fallout from the regional banking
crisis, allowing opportunistic lenders to secure loans at more attractive prices with more attractive terms
• Inflation has given rise to pockets of dislocation across public and private markets
Opportunistic Credit • Opportunistic credit investors benefit from a supply/demand imbalance as more borrowers face challenges with dislocations in out-of-favor
industries/geographies, specific timing constraints, hesitancy of lenders due to nontraditional collateral, or the need for more flexibly structured
solutions that take into account borrower-specific circumstances
• These strategies tend to provide high current income with upside convexity, where market disruption and complexity provide upside optionality, but are
not completely reliant on capital appreciation relative to distressed strategies
• The impact of structural and cyclical shifts resulting from the pandemic, a high inflationary environment, geo-political tensions, and a slowdown in global
growth should prove advantageous and provide compelling investment opportunities over the near and long-term within the for-control distressed debt
space
Distressed Debt • The strong US dollar represents short term headwinds within the American industrial industry, as domestic producers struggle to compete globally, but in
the medium-to-long-term a push towards onshoring and supply chain resiliency represent considerable tailwinds
• 50% of all publicly-listed companies were unprofitable in 2022, though historically high cash balances held by firms could help mitigate some of the
impacts of increased interest expenses
• Larger, experienced distressed debt managers like Oaktree and Carlyle are dominating fundraising, raising 60% of all capital over the past decade
1Q23
2Q23
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Jun-04
Aug-05
Oct-06
Jun-11
Aug-12
Oct-13
Jun-18
Aug-19
Oct-20
Dec-00
Dec-07
Dec-14
Dec-21
Feb-02
Apr-03
Feb-09
Apr-10
Feb-16
Apr-17
Feb-23
Regional Influences Local Considerations Industry / Sector Outlook
+ Fall out from bank retrenchment and regional banking crisis • Favorable premium for sector specialist and non-sponsored
resulting in less supply of capital lenders, although more competitors entering the non-
± Heightened yield and senior secured position; however, sponsored market Sector Investment Opportunity
uncertain macro-outlook and potential risk of downturn • Fixed versus floating rate debt
- Slow down in private equity deal making and higher cost of • Continued upstream movement of traditional middle-market Senior Direct Lending
borrowing resulting in reduced demand for capital lenders
• Importance of structuring and duration on given current macro-
outlook
0 0%
0x
1Q18
4Q12
3Q13
2Q14
1Q15
4Q15
3Q16
2Q17
4Q18
3Q19
2Q20
1Q21
4Q21
3Q22
2Q23
1H23
2Q23
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Regional Influences Local Considerations Industry / Sector Outlook
+ Fall out from the regional banking crisis resulting in banks • Favorable complexity premium for tailored solutions; interest,
unable to extend more asset-based loans fees, and upside optionality facilitating multiple return sources
+ Specialization as prerequisite for traditionally non-banked or • Floating rate debt structures mitigating interest rate sensitivity Sector Investment Opportunity
otherwise overlooked sectors and assets • Short-duration strategies and high amortization features
Opportunistic
+ Pockets of market dislocation due to high interest rates mitigating interest rate and credit (i.e., repayment) risk
creating attractive secondary credit opportunities
± Weakening credit conditions driving demand for creative
financing solutions
± Inflationary environment potential headwind for cash interest
borrowers unable to adequately service debt
- Stressed businesses becoming distressed by underestimating
default risk
2021
2023*
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2022
2% 0.8%
$200B 0.4%0.5%
$0B 0% Aggregate Capital Raised ($B) Dry Powder ($B)
YE 2003 YE 2007 YE 2011 YE 2015 YE 2019 6/30/2023 YE 2003 YE 2007 YE 2011 YE 2015 YE 2019 6/30/2023
2013
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Regional Influences Local Considerations Industry / Sector Outlook
+ Continued bank retrenchment. Drop in banks share of the • Favorable complexity premium
primary lending market. • Fixed versus floating rate debt
+ Significant improvement in economics as the macroeconomic • Increase in non-sponsored versus sponsored direct lending Sector Investment Opportunity
headwinds are exacerbating the banks reluctance to lend to • Sector-focused lending versus generalist approach
European SMEs. • Defensive-oriented sectors should exhibit resilience in the event Senior Direct Lending
+ Private equity dry powder and robust M&A activity further of a downturn
enhanced by compressed valuations. • Continued upstream movement of traditional middle-market
+ Historically low interest rates, however, we are currently lenders
experiencing a rising rate environment
± Uncertain macro-outlook and potential risk of a recession
± High concentration of deal flow amongst the (very large) top
tier managers, with long term experience through the cycles
and a strong track record.
2014
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2014
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2008
2018
2006
2007
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2019
2020
2021
2022
Regional Influences Local Considerations Industry / Sector Outlook
+ Continued bank retrenchment. • Favorable complexity premium for tailored solutions; interest,
+ The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine has refocused fees, and upside optionality facilitating multiple return sources
banks' lending to core assets and sponsors, reducing the • Floating rate debt structures mitigating interest rate sensitivity Sector Investment Opportunity
supply of available capital in the market for SMEs. This is also • Short-duration strategies and high amortization features
Opportunistic
highlighted the need for flexible capital. mitigating interest rate and credit (i.e., repayment) risk
+ Pockets of market dislocation creating attractive secondary • Less competitive non-sponsored market
credit opportunities • Defensive-oriented sectors where defaults and correlations are
+ Large opportunity set of leveraged loans provides primary low relative to broad credit markets
opportunities, in addition to the secondary side that has also
continued to provide a healthy turnover of loans in Europe in
times of market stress.
± Rising rate and inflationary environment potential headwind
for cash interest borrowers unable to adequately service debt.
€50B € 200
Defaults Restructurings
€40B € 150
€30B
€ 100
€20B
€ 50
€10B
€0B €0
2023 YTD
2016
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Regional Influences Local Considerations Industry / Sector Outlook
+ Attractive historical risk-adjusted returns • Favorable complexity premium
+ Unprecedented leverage levels and outstanding debt • Fixed versus floating rate debt
+ The Eurozone remains fragmented in nature with varying governing • Short-term and long-term distressed debt opportunities
bodies and regulatory constraints. • Broad market stress as opposed to sectors in secular decline
+ Post COVID-19 improved banking capitalization throughout the • Liquid versus illiquid distressed debt opportunities
Sector Investment Opportunity
Eurozone is expected to continue creating non-core, non-performing • Distressed trading opportunities versus loan-to-own
loan sell-offs favorable to distressed debt investors • Non-performing loan opportunities Distressed Debt
+ Persistent inflation leading to consecutive rate hikes by the ECB • Industrial and manufacturing sectors placing a significant emphasis on
translating into slowly increasing default rates supply chain resiliency through onshoring and digitalization
+ The combination of disruption in supply chains and the inflationary • Pullback in tech valuations and discretionary spending creates
pressures from the energy crisis will continue to challenge highly discounted opportunities
levered companies, leading to financial stress and distress, which can
create opportunities for distressed investors in the continent.
+ The scaling back of government stimulus packages and COVID-19 loans
reaching maturity, will coincide with an inability to refinance and banks
lifting moratoria imposed by governments
± Substantial fiscal stimulus, strong labor market and strong consumer
balance sheets lowering odds of a deep recession.
1 Source: S&P LCD, as of December 31, 2022. 2 Source: Preqin, as of February 2023.