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The Power of The ST50 List - IVANHOFF
The Power of The ST50 List - IVANHOFF
ST50
How
Is
The
ST50
List
Different
There
is
lot
more
than
just
Price
Momentum
behind
the
ST50
list:
• Market
is
forward-‐looking;
Our
equity
selecSon
is
forward-‐looking
too.
We
give
more
weight
on
forward
earnings
than
past
earnings;
• The
best
performing
stocks
in
any
given
year
are
the
ones
that
surprise
the
most.
We
pay
a
parScular
a[enSon
on
the
size
of
earnings
surprises
and
market’s
reacSon
to
it;
• More
weight
on
price
momentum
–
many
stocks
could
double
and
triple
before
they
report
their
first
profitable
quarter.
We
don’t
want
to
miss
them;
• Setup
score,
which
pushes
lower
stocks
that
are
too
extended
for
a
fresh
entry;
• Full
Transparency
–
we
track
the
performance
of
each
individual
stocks:
how
many
weeks
it
is
on
the
list;
how
it
does
while
on
list
and
a`er
it
is
removed;
• Despite
the
fact
that
it
is
a
favorite
source
for
ideas
to
many
swing
traders,
the
ST50
list
is
designed
for
long-‐term
trend-‐followers;
• Provide
a
glimpse
into
the
social
senSment
towards
each
stock
on
the
list
Lessons
There
are
more
than
150
weekly
issues
of
the
ST50
list,
going
back
all
the
way
to
September
2010.
If
you
go
through
them,
you
would
realize
that:
• Trends
could
conSnue
a
lot
longer
than
anyone
expects
(especially
in
the
biotech
sector);
• Price
Targets
Are
Irrelevant
Noise;
• Market
is
forward-‐looking.
A
stock
could
triple
before
it
reports
its
first
profitable
quarter.
(recent
examples:
YELP,
SCTY,
TSLA)
• If
you
want
to
ride
a
stock
for
more
than
100%
gain,
you
have
to
be
willing
to
go
through
at
least
one
20%
pullback
=
it
is
not
a
pleasant
feeling
for
even
the
most
experienced;
• Best
Time
To
buy
is
when
the
indexes
are
down
10%
or
more
in
a
1-‐2
months
and
you
see
stocks
on
the
ST50
list
breaking
out
to
new
52-‐week
highs
from
proper
bases;
• Bull
market
correcSons
take
the
form
of
sector
rotaSon.
There
is
a
constant
change
in
leading
names;
• Don’t
fall
in
love
in
any
stock.
Every
stock
is
price
cyclical.
Sooner
or
later,
every
trend
ends,
but
it
leaves
plenty
of
clues
along
the
way.
• Embrace
Market
correcSons.
They
provide
incredible
opportuniSes.
ST50
Why
Market
CorrecSons
Are
Important,
part
I
ST50
Why
Market
CorrecSons
Are
Important,
part
II
ST50
The
ST50
List
Saves
You
A
Lot
Of
Time,
While
Improving
The
Odds
Of
Finding
and
Riding
the
Next
Big
Winners
• A
lot
easier
to
go
through
50
preselected
names
that
already
have
all
the
features
that
big
winners
had
BEFORE
their
biggest
moves;
• Some
stocks
will
stay
only
a
few
weeks
on
the
list
(usually
the
losers);
others
will
stay
mulSple
months
(usually
the
biggest
winners);
• Improve
the
odds
of
finding
big
winners;
• Saves
you
from
trouble
–
if
you
focus
on
the
list,
you
won’t
deal
with
“shi[y”
stocks
that
are
in
a
downtrend.
Recent
Examples
of
Long-‐Term
Trend
Following
Exits
on
the
ST50
List
• $LNKD
for
97%
in
42
weeks;
• $FNGN
for
127%
in
45
weeks;
• $ASGN
for
80%
in
47
weeks;
• $N
for
60%
in
55
weeks;
• $GTLS
for
51%
in
18
weeks;
• $KORS
for
81%
in
58
weeks;
• $PRLB
for
68%
in
21
weeks;
• $SBUX
for
42%
in
41
weeks;
• …
Market
Timing
• The
Market
Averages
hide
more
than
they
reveal.
They
are
lagging
indicators
• The
ST50
list
is
a
Leading
Indicator;
• When
to
be
aggressive
and
when
to
raise
cash
• When
to
cut
posiSon
size;
• Sector
RotaSon.
The
ST50
List
in
Q3,
2013
ST50
The
ST50
Premium
• The
ST50
List
is
a
small
part
of
the
ST50
Premium
Service;
• Model
Porrolio;
• Swing
Trade
Ideas;
• Almost
daily
market
reviews;
• EducaSonal
arScles
that
help
to
accelerate
your
invesSng
learning
curve;
• Mentoring.
ST50