ANALYSIS OF COMPETITION BETWEEN LAND TRANSPORTATION AND SEA

TRANSPORTATION IN NORTH KOLAKA REGENCY

BY
BAYU SAPUTRASYAH
(1073348)

Thesis Proposal

Supervisor :

January 2024

Rotterdam Institute Master Of Applied Science

Contents

1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Research Background

1.2.1 Problem Decription

1.2.2 Stakeholder Analysis

1.3 Main Question, Scope, Limitations, and Research Sub-Questions

1.3.1 Main Question

1.3.2 Scope and Limitations

1.3.3 Sub-Research Questions

2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
2.1 Revitalization Theory
2.2 Crossing Track
2.3 Crossing Transportation
2.4 Land Transportation
2.5 Ferry Port
2.6 Forecasting
2.7 Qualitative Method Forecasting
2.8 Forecasting Quantitative Methods
2.9 Regression
2.10 Calculation of the Main Size of the Ship
2.11 Calculation of Ship Main Coefficient
2.12 Optimization Methods

3. RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

3.1 Type, Location And Time Of Research
3.2 Research Design and Data Collection

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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1. INTRODUCTION

The Ketapang-Gilimanuk and Padangbai-Lembar crossings are the second and third busiest
crossings in Indonesia. This crossing connects Java Island with Bali Island and West Nusa
Tenggara Island using sea and land transportation modes. The movement of passengers
and vehicles such as two-wheeled vehicles, four-wheeled vehicles and trucks carrying goods
using the Ketapang-Gilimanuk and Padangbai-Lembar crossings continues to increase every
year. Road mobility generally includes ferry transportation. Road travel is a highly adaptable
form of transportation. Therefore, the current infrastructure can accommodate varying
levels of demand and can be upgraded at any time. Ferry transportation is intended to
comply with standards similar to road transportation, namely recurring with high frequency,
scheduled services desired by the community, reliable service, safe shipping, moderate or
low fares, serving commuter transportation and accessibility to ferry ports is not may be too
far from the center of traffic generation (M. Rinaldi S. Soleman, 2019).

Lombok Island is an island in the Lesser Sunda Islands or Nusa Tenggara which is separated
by the Lombok Strait from Bali Island to the west and the Alas Strait from Sumbawa Island
to the east which is part of the Province of West Nusa Tenggara. The Province of West Nusa
Tenggara includes 2 large islands, namely Lombok and Sumbawa. Lombok Island itself
consists of 1 Municipal City, namely Mataram, which is also the capital of the Province of
West Nusa Tenggara and 4 regencies, namely West Lombok, Central Lombok, East Lombok
and North Lombok with an area of 4.514,11 km². One of the goals of economic activity is to
fulfill the primary and secondary needs of society (Kenessey, 2020)

This target can be achieved through various activities, including trade, industry, agriculture,
plantations, etc. which produce output in the form of consumption materials. The ability of a
region varies in meeting the needs of its population. For example, there are regions that
have a high output of agricultural products but do not have enough fishery products for
their population. This shortage can be filled with trade activities both on a local and
international scale (Hussin, 2021).

Data held by PT ASDP over the last 5 years on the Padangbai-Lembar crossing route shows
an average growth for passengers of 4%, two-wheeled and three-wheeled vehicles at 7%
and four-wheeled vehicles and more at 5%. Not much different from the Padangbai Lembar
crossing route, the volume of movement for passengers and vehicle transportation,
especially trucks carrying goods originating from Java Island crossing to Bali Island using
the Ketapang-Gilimanuk crossing route has also experienced excess capacity or overload. It

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was recorded that around 4,000 trucks carrying goods crossed from Ketapang-Gilimanuk.
This matter received special attention from the Minister of Transportation of the Republic of
Indonesia, Budi Karya Sumadi when conducting a field inspection at Ketapang Harbor and
Padangbai Harbor. With an increase in the volume of vehicle movement, especially trucks
carrying goods, this will affect the increase in the volume of vehicle traffic entering and
exiting the island of Bali. If this continues to happen, it will result in reducing or harming the
tourism sector on the island of Bali. Apart from that, logistics transportation still relies on
trucks carrying goods, which also causes problems such as traffic jams and road damage
(Pusat Statistik, 2023).

In this case, the effort made by the government, especially the Ministry of Transportation,
to solve this problem is by opening a new crossing route using long-distance roro ferry
transportation. This effort is also one of the government's breakthroughs in terms of
revitalizing the function of maritime ferry transportation because there are still many
unused roro ferry boats which should be used to solve problems such as crowding during
the Eid season, Christmas and New Year but are not used. Ferry routes new one which has
been opened by the government with PT. ASDP is a direct crossing route from Surabaya to
Lombok and the Ketapang to Lombok route which is still in the planning stage but will soon
be realized. With the opening of these two new routes, it adds to the existing alternative
crossing transportation routes across East Java, Bali and Lombok. These findings and
recommendations are intended to be submitted to the City Government and the Regional
Director of Indonesian Ports, ensuring that this research requires a cost calculation analysis
that can provide information regarding the benefits or potential of each existing alternative
ferry transportation route (I. G. I. W. Pramana, 2020).

1.1 Research Background

Based on inter-regional trade data, West Nusa Tenggara province, especially Lombok Island,
has high trade connectivity with East Java (43.6%), DKI Jakarta (36.83%), and Bali
(10.10%) and the rest with smaller percentages. who come from West Sumatra, East
Kalimantan and South Sulawesi.

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Figure 1. NTB City

Source : (Central Statistics Agency, Trade Between Indonesian Regions)

Note. West Nusa Tenggara trade connectivity.

Meeting the needs for basic and important materials in West Nusa Tenggara, especially
Lombok Island, is carried out through inter-regional trade activities, especially with East
Java. Trade relations between the two regions are also supported by each regional
government in the form of economic agglomeration through economic centers for sales and
purchases, thereby facilitating transportation access between the two regions. The role of
transportation is to support logistics distribution between the two regions following the
existing route where cargo from the East Java area is carried by land transportation facilities
then using ferry transportation on the Ketapang–Gilimanuk crossing route (I. S. Murwito,
2020). On the island of Bali, there are two alternative access points, namely via the south
or north side and then heading east to use ferry transportation at Padangbai Harbor to
Selamat Harbor as one of the main entry points for goods distribution in NTB, especially on
Lombok Island with a total distance of 236 km or 127.4 nautical miles. This strategic
position makes the Sheet Ferry Port a transportation node that supports economic growth
from trade activities in the surrounding community (Purnawan, 2021).

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Figure 2. Ferry Ship PT ASDP
Source : Author (2023)

Note. The sea transportation for crossings that is widely used in Indonesia is the roro ship
type. Roro ships have ramp doors which function as a bridge between the ship and the dock
as a door for vehicles to enter and exit. Roro ships do not have transverse bulkheads on the
vehicle deck, so if water enters the ship, the ship will sink quickly. Roro ships have a high
freeboard shape and have the same shape as barges. Roro ships have the advantage of a
roll on roll off system which makes the process of loading and unloading vehicles faster and
the vehicle does not have to move backwards. These ships are widely used in developing
countries because operational costs are comparable to the level of income originating from
vehicle and passenger transportation. Most of the roro ships used in Indonesia are ferries
equipped with multideck to transport trailers, cars and various types of unit cargo. As a
transit area, the island of Bali also has a positive impact from cargo distribution activities via
land transportation in the form of parking fees and vehicle taxes, including for vehicles with
Bali regional registration numbers but domiciled in Lombok (Magdalena, 2022). However, on
the other hand, the operation of heavy vehicles on the highway from Gilimanuk to

4
 Padangbai causes road damage which can disrupt goods distribution traffic and the
movement of the general public on the island of Bali. In general, road congestion conditions
can have an impact on inefficiency in the form of increasing travel time and vehicle
operational costs. To minimize these conditions, the Minister of Transportation instructed to
open the Ketapang-Lembar crossing. The Ketapang – Sheet route has a distance of 125
nautical miles, with a shorter distance and does not require land transit on the island of Bali.
This research aims to determine the estimated potential cargo (demand) and ship facilities
requirements for the Ketapang-Lembar route as an alternative new crossing route for
connectivity between East Java and the island of (Satyarini, 2019).

Therefore, a cost calculation analysis is needed that can provide information about the
benefits or potential of each existing alternative crossing transportation route. Based on this
analysis, it will later be used to identify alternative crossing transportation routes that will
produce minimum costs and the benefits provided. The first benefit to be achieved from the
direct crossing route using a long-distance roro ferry service for land transportation is that it
can reduce traffic density on the island of Bali so that tourism comfort can be better
maintained. Second, it can add new tourism routes. Third, environmentally friendly. Fourth,
reduce the burden and maintenance of roads. Fifth, time efficiency, operational costs and
truck maintenance.

1.2 Problem Description, Stakeholder Analysis, Problem Statement, and Objective

1.2.1 Problem Decription

Java Island and Madura Island are connected by the Ujung-Kamal crossing managed by PT.
ASDP Surabaya Branch. Although the port has historically been very profitable and
successful, declining passenger conditions have led to challenges in funding approaches and
financial plans due to deteriorating passenger conditions. According to previous research,
this decline in conditions was caused by the operation of the SURAMADU Bridge in June
2019. Many service users chose to use the SURAMADU Bridge rather than using the Ujung-
Kamal crossing service because it seemed more comfortable, time-saving and cost-effective
(Ganda et al., 2019 ). According to (Didit Darmawan et al., 2020), residents of Kamal
District are the majority of users of the Ujung - Kamal crossing service, so PT. ASDP
Indonesia Ferry has the motivation to continue operating the Ujung - Kamal crossing even
though it does not really help in terms of revenue generation. The proximity of the location
of the users of this service is one of the factors that influences the continued use of the
Ujung – Kamal crossing service. The Ujung - Kamal crossing takes approximately 30
minutes. The SURAMADU Bridge has had various impacts, for example a decrease in the
number of people using the two ports to cross, especially after the government eliminated
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fees for using the SURAMADU Bridge. Because it has been used for a long time, the Ujung-
Kamal ferry crossing has experienced industrial ups and downs. The number of passengers
has decreased quite significantly as a result of the SURAMADU Bridge. This ferry
transportation business is difficult for the management organization to keep running. Even
though there are challenges and obstacles, this mode of transportation is still used today.
The existence of these crossings depends on the number of loyal passengers who continue
to utilize this mode of transportation, which in turn depends on how long these companies
will survive. Therefore, despite all the existing obstacles, support is needed to keep this
company operating through this ferry passenger satisfaction survey (Djaelani & Darmawan,
2021). Currently the Ujung-Kamal crossing is served by 3 ships, namely KMP. Cob, KMP.
Joko Tole and KMP. Gajah Mada, with operational hours from 06.00 – 19.00 WIB with an
average of 16 trips per day in maximum conditions. The research aims to determine the
quality of Ujung Kamal crossing services, where since the SURAMADU Bridge the number of
crossing transport users has decreased drastically. Ujung-Kamal crossing transportation can
be said to be commuter transportation where the users of the crossing services are people
around the port who live, work or whose travel destination is not too far from Pebuhan
Kamal Harbor or Ujung Harbor. In this thesis research, the crossing routes used are
crossing routes in East Java, Bali and Lombok. Where the route has commercial routes,
namely Ketapang-Gilimanuk and Padangbai-Lembar. Meanwhile, the pioneer routes are
Surabaya-Lembar and Ketapang-Lembar.

1.2.2 Stakeholder Analysis

The stakeholder identification process has significance in research efforts, including
investigations related to the revitalization of container services. Stakeholders refer to
individuals or organizations who have an interest in the research or are impacted by the
research results. Through the objective process, the researcher identifies the current
conditions of the crossing transport routes on the East Java, Bali and Lombok routes,
determines the calculation model for the optimal analysis of alternative crossing transport
routes on the East Java, Bali and Lombok routes so as to analyze the impact of alternative
implementation. direct crossing routes using roro ferry services on the currently valid
crossing transportation routes.
Each category of goods vehicle has a different cargo weight classification:

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 140.000

120.000

100.000

80.000

60.000

40.000

20.000

Source: Statistics Center, 2023

1.2.3 Problem Formulation

Based on the problem description, the problem formulation is formulated as follows:
A. What is the current condition of crossing transport routes across East Java, Bali and
Lombok?
B. What is the calculation model for analyzing alternative ferry transport routes across East
Java, Bali and Lombok that produce minimum unit costs?
C. What is the impact of implementing an alternative direct crossing route using a roro
ferry service on current ferry transportation routes?
1.2.4 Research Objectives
Based on the problem formulation above, the objectives of this research thesis will be:
A. Identify the current conditions of crossing transport routes across East Java, Bali and
Lombok
B. Determine the calculation model for optimal analysis of alternative crossing transport
routes across East Java, Bali and Lombok
C. Analyze the impact of implementing an alternative direct crossing route using a roro
ferry service on the current crossing transportation routes.
1.3 Main Question, Scope, Limitations, and Research Sub-Questions
Fokus penelitian ini adalah untuk alternatif rute penyeberangan langsung dengan waktu a
longer journey, the total transportation costs incurred will be cheaper when compared to
using land transportation with two crossings, conversely for routes using land transportation
with two crossings which have a faster travel time, the total transportation costs incurred
will be more expensive compared to direct crossing route. The main questions, sub-research
questions, scope and limitations are as follows:

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 1.3.1 Main Question
To achieve the objectives of this research, the following questions were developed:
What are the conditions of crossing transport routes, calculation models for analyzing
alternative routes and the impact of implementing alternative direct crossing routes using
roro ferry services on current crossing transport routes?
1.3.2 Scope and Limitations
This thesis focuses on alternative ferry transport routes that currently exist and are being
planned across East Java, Bali and Lombok. The availability of docks for roro ferries at five
ferry ports, namely Ferry Ports. Ferry transport on alternative sea routes is used only roro
ferries and for land routes only vehicular transport is used for the cargo class analyzed in
this research, only passengers and vehicles goods, ship and vehicle speeds are assumed to
be constant. The ferry ports used as crossing transport points in this alternative route
include the ferry ports in Surabaya, East Java, Ketapang, Banyuwangi, East Java, Gilimanuk
Bali, Padangbai Bali, and Selamat Lombok, West Nusa Tenggara.
1.3.3 Sub-Research Questions
To answer this main question, sub-research questions were asked in this study as follows:
A. What is the information regarding alternative crossing transportation routes?
B. How to increase interest in crossing service users?

2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

To understand what makes alternative ferry transportation route initiatives, a theoretical

framework was developed in this research regarding the analysis of alternative crossing
transportation routes: case studies across East Java, Bali and West Nusa Tenggara. By
applying a number of theories and concepts of crossing routes, crossing transportation, land
transportation and crossing ports, this framework will systematically ensure logical and
precisely defined relationships between variables that have an impact on alternative
crossing transportation routes.
2.1 Revitalization Theory

Iskandar Abubakar. (2013), stated that transportation is one of the most important and
strategic aspects in smoothing the wheels of development, strengthening unity and integrity
and influencing all aspects of life. Transportation also plays a role as a supporter, driver and
driving force for the growth of regions that have potential but have not yet developed in
efforts to increase and equalize development. The process of transport, transportation or
transportation activities contains elements that are grouped as follows:
1. There are means of transportation (Vehicles);
2. There are roads where the track passes (Ways);

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3. There is transportation (Commoditis);
4. There are regulations;
5. There is a place of origin/destination (Terminals);
A port is a water area that is protected against waves, which is equipped with sea terminal
facilities including a pier where ships can moor for loading and unloading goods, a sea
warehouse (transito) and storage areas where ships unload their cargo, and warehouses
where goods are stored. -Goods can be stored for a longer time while waiting for delivery to
the destination area or shipment. This terminal is equipped with railways and/or highways
(Bambang, 2010). As stated by Ozfar Z Tamin (2000), to make predictions of passenger
and vehicle growth, linear regression analysis is calculated. Linear Regression Analysis is a
statistical method that can be used to study the relationship between the nature of the
problem being investigated.
Soedjono Kramadibrata (2002) in Moedji Widodo, ST explains that a port is a sea/river with
sufficient depth for ships to moor safely from wave resistance, because at that place loading
and unloading activities (B/M) of cargo are carried out from origin to destination. desired.
Inland water transportation has long been a vital means of transportation for inland
residents which has four main characteristics:
1. Inland waters are a corridor that covers several districts/cities and even provinces
2. Terminals/piers need to be built to pick up and drop off passengers or goods for further
distribution by road to their final destination.
3. The route taken is usually single, except when one river is connected to another river
with Anjir, such as in Central Kalimantan and South Kalimantan, or from the main river
to tributaries.
4. The navigation system needs to be controlled if the inland water shipping lane is used for
various purposes, including goods, passengers and tourism. The advantages of using
inland water transportation include:
a. In areas that have rivers that can be used for transportation, there is no need to
build new infrastructure other than loading and unloading docks because they
already exist naturally;
b. River infrastructure only needs to be maintained at low cost, so that infrastructure
capacity will generally be sufficient;
c. Can act as the main transportation for remote areas, where road construction is not
yet available or is expensive to build;
d. Has a higher level of safety than road transport, especially if equipped with adequate
safety equipment;

9
e. Very suitable for tourist transportation, as has begun to be developed on the large
rivers of Kalimantan and on the Musi River, South Sumatra.
f. Capable of transporting directly from deep sea waters to inland waters and vice
versa;
g. Capable of transporting large volumes, along the depth and width of the channel
according to the ship used;
h. More efficient use of fuel, (Iskandar.A 2013).
Ferry boats, as a mode of transportation that is quite developed in Indonesia, are part of
the national transportation system which has its own characteristics. Based on their
function, ferry ships are divided into 3 (three):
1) Ferry ships carrying passengers (Passengers)
2) Ferry vessels containing vehicles (Ro-Ro)
3) Ferry vessels carrying passengers and vehicles (Ropax)
Various types of ships are used as ferries, depending on the distance traveled, capacity
of the ship, speed required and the condition of the water that must be traversed,
including hydrofoils, hovercraft and fast boats. The definition of a Ro-Ro ship by Lloyd's
Register is a passenger ship with 1/more decks, both closed and open, which carries
passengers, vehicles and goods in the vehicle in the form of bulk or pallets or boxes,
vehicles on vehicles, carry containers, etc. loading and unloading horizontally. A Ro-Ro
ship is a ship that can carry vehicles that enter the ship at their own pace and can exit
on their own, so they are called roll on-roll off ships, abbreviated as Ro-Ro. For this
reason, ships are equipped with ramp doors which are connected by a moveable bridge
or floating dock to the dock.
Transportation is defined as the transfer of goods and people from their place of origin to
their destination (Nasution, 2008). The elements of transportation include five things,
namely:
1. There is cargo being transported.
2. Availability of vehicles as means of transportation.
3. There is a road that can be followed.
4. There is an origin terminal and a destination terminal.
5. Human resources and organization or management that drive these transportation
activities.
According to Miro (2010), transportation is the business of moving, moving,
transporting, diverting an object from one place to another, where in another place the
object is more useful or can be useful for certain purposes. Based on the description

10
above, it can be seen that there are two most important elements of transportation,
namely:
1. Displacement/movement
2. Physically changing the location of goods (commodities) and passengers to another
place.
According to Triadmodjo (2010) a port is a water area that is protected against waves,
which is equipped with marine terminal facilities including a pier where ships can moor for
loading and unloading goods, a sea warehouse (transito) and storage areas where ships
unload their cargo, and warehouses where goods can be stored for a longer time while
waiting for delivery to the destination area or shipment. A port is a gateway to enter a
region or country and as a connecting infrastructure between regions, between islands or
even between countries, continents and nations. The various ports in terms of their
operation are:
1. Public Ports, namely ports that are operated for public purposes by the Government
and their implementation can be delegated to state-owned enterprises established
for a specific purpose.
2. Special Port, which is organized for its own benefit to support certain activities. The
main targets for carrying out port activities include: (a) Smooth flow of cargo. Smooth
flow of cargo is influenced by: (1) Freight traffic patterns at the port, (2) Cargo
handling systems and loading and unloading methods, (3) Feasibility of port facilities
and infrastructure. , (4) Quality of human resources at the port. (b) Smooth flow of
ships, (1) Sealing of ships, (2) Condition of port pools and shipping lanes, (3)
Condition of docks, (4) Smooth flow of goods and (5) Quality of human resources at
the port. Ferry transport is a form of transport that connects two ends of a highway
separated by a large river or sea that is not too far away (Nasution, 2008) and
according to Abu Bakar, et al (2013), said that crossing transport is transport that
functions as a bridge that connects road network and/or railway network separated by
water to transport passengers and vehicles and their cargo. In principle, Ferry
Transport does not transport loose goods, the goods being transported must be put
into the vehicle. A pier is a port building that is used to dock and moor ships that
carry out loading and unloading of goods and boarding and disembarking passengers
(Triadmodjo, 2010). According to Abubakar, et al (2013), traffic patterns at crossing
ports are the location of land buildings which are planned in such a way as to fulfill:
(1) There is no crossing between vehicles entering and leaving the ship from and to
the port (2) Vehicle flow between vehicles crossing separated from those who do not

11
 cross (3) Separate vehicle types in the parking area. (4) Location of the terminal
building close to the pier and (5) Not neglecting the aesthetic aspect, in harmony with
local culture and customs.
2.2 Crossing Track

A waterway in the sea, strait, bay, river and/or lake which is designated as a
crossing has the function of connecting nodes in the road network and/or railway
network. Crossing routes are divided into two, namely commercial routes and pioneer
routes. Commercial routes are routes that are financially profitable, usually these routes
are opened to private parties to invest in ships on the route in question or as a business
that carries out channel maintenance. Meanwhile, pioneering routes are routes that are
not yet economically or financially profitable. This pioneering route is served by state-
owned enterprises in the field of subsidized crossings, both subsidies for ship facilities
and operational costs, or tendered to the private sector to provide services based on
established standards. In Indonesia there are 46 commercial routes and 116 pioneer
routes served by PT ASDP Indonesia Ferrt (Persero) as a ship and port operator (ASDP
Management, 2015). In this final assignment research, the crossing routes used are
crossing routes in East Java, Bali and Lombok. Where the route has commercial routes,
namely Ketapang-Gilimanuk and Padangbai-Lembar. Meanwhile, the pioneer routes are
Surabaya-Lembar and Ketapang-Lembar.
2.3 Crossing Transportation

The sea transportation for crossings that is widely used in Indonesia is the roro ship type.
These ships are widely used in developing countries because operational costs are
comparable to the level of income derived from vehicle and passenger transportation.
Most of the roro ships used in Indonesia are ferries equipped with multidecks to transport
trailers, cars and various types of unit cargo. Roro ships have ramp doors which function
as a bridge between the ship and the dock as a door for vehicles to enter and exit. Roro
ships do not have transverse bulkheads on the vehicle deck, so if water enters the ship,
the ship will sink quickly. Roro ships have a high freeboard shape and have the same
shape as barges. Roro ships have the advantage of a roll on roll off system which makes
the process of loading and unloading vehicles faster and the vehicle does not have to
move backwards.
2.4 Land Transportation

Land transportation here is a means of transportation to move goods from one place to
another, via land routes, namely roads. Here are several types goods transport vehicles on
the road.

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 1. Pick Up trucks are small sized trucks, widely used because they can fit into alleys and
narrow roads, this type of truck is also usually called by its trademarks such as Suzuki
carry, Daihatsu Grandmax, and Colt Car (Mitsubishi Colt) Size of the bed : Length: 2 –
3 meters, Width: 1 – 1.8 meters, Height: 1 – 1.8 meters, Load capacity: 1 – 2 tonnes,
Volume range: 7 cubic meters.
2. The Colt Diesel truck is the smallest car in the automotive class for transporting goods,
many of which have rear tires added to make them six wheels, with the addition of
rear tires the capacity increases by around one ton. Body size: Length: 3-4 meters,
Width: 1 – 2 meters, Height: 1.5 – 2 meters, Payload capacity: 2 – 3.5 tons, Volume
range: 14 cubic meters.
3. The Fuso Engkel truck is a medium size truck. Body size: Length; 6-7 meters, width:
2.3 – 2.5 meters, height: 2 – 2.5 meters, Load capacity 7-15 tons, Volume range: 29
cubic meters.
4. Tronton trucks are trucks with a larger size, usually having 3 axles, one at the front
and a tandem at the back. Many of these types of trucks have been modified to suit
their needs, such as being tank trucks, garbage trucks, dump trucks, namely trucks
with hydraulic facilities that can drop loads easily. hydraulic motion. Body size: 7-9
meters, width: 2.2 – 2.5 meters, height: 2.3 -2.5 meters, Load capacity 25 -30 tons
5. Tronton wing box truck
Internal dimensions of the box: Length: 8.85 meters, width: 2.4 meters, height: 2.1
meters, Load capacity 32 – 36 tons, Volume range: 34 cubic meters
6. 20 feet container truck
Internal dimensions: Length 5.9 – 6.2 meters, Width 2.3 – 2.6 meters, height; 2.5 –
2.7 meters Load capacity: 20 Tons, Volume range: 33cubic
7. 40 feet container truck
Internal dimensions: Length 12 – 12.3 meters, Width 2.3 – 2.6 meters, height; 2.5 –
2.7 meters. Load capacity: 27 Tons, Volume range: 66 cubic
Every vehicle carrying goods must comply with loading regulations where the dimensions
and weight of the cargo must not exceed the recommended limits. To monitor this, there is
a weigh bridge. The imposition of sanctions on transport vehicles on the road is based on
the vehicle classification and the JBI (Permitted Weight Number) of each vehicle on national
roads. The following :
The classification of vehicles along with the JBI for each vehicle is presented in Table 2-1
below.
Table 2-1 Classification of Transport Trucks

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 Vehicle Class JBI (Kg) Example

Group I 1.500 – 8.000 Colt

Group II >8.000 – 12.000 Engkel Truck

Group III >12.000-21.000 Trailers, Duplicate Tire Trucks

Group IV > 21.000 Trailer Truck

Fines will be imposed on trucks carrying loads of more than 5% to 25% of the Permitted
Weight. This compensation fine ranges from Rp. 10,000.00 to Rp. 60,000.00 depending on
the vehicle class. If the truck repeats its mistake 3 times in a row and is detected by the
weighbridge concerned, then the truck will be subject to a ticket. However, if a truck
carries more than 25% of its load, the truck will be subject to sanctions in the form of a
ticket, lowering the load, or returning the load to the city of origin.
2.5 Ferry Port

A port is a water area that is protected against waves, which is equipped with marine
terminal facilities including a pier where ships can moor for loading and unloading, equipped
with loading and unloading facilities and storage areas where goods can be stored for a
certain period of time (Triatmodjo, 2009 ). According to Government Regulation Number 69
of 2001 concerning Ports, a port is a place consisting of land and surrounding waters with
certain boundaries as a place for government activities and economic activities which are
used as a place for ships to dock, dock, board and/or load and unload passengers. goods
equipped with shipping safety facilities and port supporting activities as well as a place for
intra and inter-mode transportation.
According to (Anggaida, 2016) based on their role in shipping, ports are divided into (two)
types, namely transit ports and crossing ports. A transit port is a port that receives
transshipment cargo, while a ferry port is a port that is specifically used for ferry
transportation using roro ships to load and unload vehicles in a roll on roll off manner to and
from ships through ramp gates. Access for passengers or vehicles from the port to the ship
is via the dock. In other words, a dock is a place where ships are moored at the port for
loading and unloading of goods and people from and onto the ship. At the pier activities are
also carried out to fill fuel for ships, drinking water, clean water, channels for dirty
water/waste which will be further processed at the port.
The operating principles of ferry ports include: fixed route and fixed time (serving a fixed
route with the correct docking and sailing time schedule), pass through (no waiting time),
the type of ship used is roll on roll off. The FIFO service system is first in first out, zone

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division, no crossing between passengers and vehicles, and there is always a ship at one of
the docks for short distance transportation. In this final project research, the ferry port used
has adequate piers at every crossing port in East Java, Bali and Lombok.
2.6 Forecasting

Forecasting is the activity of estimating or predicting what will happen in the future over a
relatively long period of time. Meanwhile, a forecast is a situation or condition that is
expected to occur in the future. Forecasting requires taking historical data and projecting it
into the future with some form of mathematical model. It can be a subjective or intuitive
prediction adjusted to good judgment. According to the underlying future time horizon,
forecasting can be grouped into three categories, namely:

• Short term forecasting

Forecasts with a time span of up to one year but generally less than three months. Short-
term forecasting is used to plan purchases, work scheduling, number of workers,
assignments, and production levels

• Medium term forecasting

Medium-term forecasts usually span three months to three years. This forecasting is very
useful in sales planning, production planning and budgeting, cash budgeting, and analyzing
various operational plans.

• Long term forecasting

Forecasts that span three years or more, are used in planning new products, capital
expenditures, facility locations, or expansion of research and development.

2.7 Qualitative Method Forecasting

Qualitative demand forecasting methods relate to qualitative data, for example about
consumer tastes for a product, or surveys about consumer loyalty, etc. This qualitative
method can be grouped into several technical methods as will be explained below,
1. Survey Techniques
Survey techniques are a forecasting tool that is quite important, especially for predicting
events or trends in the short term. Surveys usually use interview tools or a list of questions
that will be addressed to selected and targeted respondents. According to the group that is
expected to be the company's target market. Surveys are carried out to predict economic
variables that are directly or indirectly related to consumer demand or the target market.
The economic variables surveyed include variables related to the company's budget which is
spent to meet the company's needs.

15
2. Opinion Polling Techniques
Polling techniques are often used to complement data from surveys. Polls from experts,
executives, the general public, or consumers. This opinion poll is more about the personal
views or opinions of the respondents, whereas survey techniques are more objective. For
example, before launching a new product, a pre-test and opinion poll is usually held on
sample respondents. Polling techniques involve various media such as TV, telephone, email
or the internet to distribute questionnaires or lists of questions about various information
needed by the company.
2.8 Forecasting Quantitative Methods
1. Time Series Techniques

The Time Series method relates to the values of a variable which are arranged periodically
throughout the time period over which demand forecasts are projected. For example,
weekly, monthly, quarterly and annually, depending on the wishes of the parties who
forecast this demand. This method is based on data and past conditions. If future conditions
are quite stable in the sense that there are not many significant changes to past conditions,
this method can provide fairly accurate forecasting results..

2. Linear Trend Technique

Trend is a long-term movement over a period of time which can sometimes be used as a
straight line. In fact, it is assumed that the trend can be represented by some simple
function such as a straight line over the period for the observed time series.

2.9 Regression

Regression is a measurement of the relationship between two or more variables expressed

in the form of a relationship or function. To determine the form of the relationship, a clear
distinction is needed between the independent variable which is often referred to as the
symbol other or vice versa. These two variables can have a cause-and-effect relationship.
That is a relationship that influences each other. So, regression is a certain form of function
between the dependent variable Y and the independent variable X or can be expressed as a
function Y=f(X). So that the regression equation or function form corresponds to the
independent variable X that composes it. Thus, the form of function or regression can be
classified into several types, namely:
A. Linear Regression
Linear regression is a form of relationship where the independent variable X or dependent variable
Y is a factor with a power of one. This linear regression is divided into:

1. Simple linear regression with function form : Y = a + bX+e,

16
2. Multiple linear regression with functions: Y = b0 + b1X1+.....+bpXp+e,
Of the two functions above, each is in the form of a straight line (simple linear) and a
linear plane (double linear).

B. Non-Linear Regression
Non-linear regression is a form of relationship or function where the independent variable X
and dependent variable Y can function as factors or variables with a certain rank. Apart
from that, the independent variable X and the dependent variable Y can function as
exponent functions = power functions. Non-linear regression can be divided into:
1. Polynomial Regression
Polynomial regression is a regression with an independent variable as a factor with
ordered ranks. The forms of function are as follows: Y = a + bX+ cX2 (quadratic function)
Y = a + bX+ cX2 +dX3 (cubic function) Y = a + bX+ cX2+dX3+dX4 (Quartic function) Y = a
+ bX+ cX2+dX3+dX4 + fX5 (quinic function), and so on

2. Hyperbolic Regression
In hyperbolic regression, where the independent variable This regression has a functional
form such as:: 1/Y = a + bX or Y= a+b/X In addition there are mixed forms such as : 1/Y
= a + bX + cX2, and many other forms.

Apart from the regressions above, there are also several other types of regression such as
power function regression, exponential regression, logarithmic regression and geometric
function regression. In this final research project, linear regression theory is used to relate
the value of the main size of the ship and the capacity of the ship.

2.10 Calculation of the Main Size of the Ship

A. Main Sizes of Ships

The first step required in planning a ship is to first find the main dimensions of the ship
needed.

1. Lpp (length between perpendicular)

The horizontal distance measured between two vertical lines, namely the stern vertical line
(after perpendicular (AP)) and the perpendicular line of the bow (fore perpendicular (FP)).

2. Loa (length of overall)

The horizontal distance measured from the outermost point at the front to the outermost point
at the back of the ship.
3. Bm (moulded breadth)
The greatest width of the ship is measured amidships (midship) between two inner sides

17
 of a ship's shell for steel ships or ships made of metal. For ship skins made of wood or
non-metallic materials, the distance is measured between the two outer edges of the ship
skin.

4. H (height)
The vertical distance measured amidships, from the top of the keel to the top of the deck
beam at the side of the ship.

5. T (draught)
The vertical distance measured from the top of the keel to the water surface.
6. DWT (dead weight ton)
Weight in tons (1000 kilograms) of cargo, provisions, fuel, fresh water, passengers and
crew carried by the ship when loaded to the maximum summer load line.

7. Vs (service speed)
Service speed or average speed achieved in a series of shipping services carried out by a
ship. This speed can also be measured when the ship's hull is under the surface of the
water in a clean state, loaded to full draft, the driving motor is working at average power
and normal weather..

2.11 Calculation of Ship Main Coefficient

Calculation of the ship's main coefficient can be done using the value of the Froude
number that has been obtained based on the main dimensions that have been prepared
previously. The main ship coefficients in question include Cb, Cm, Cwp, LCB, Cp, Volume
Displacement and Displacement. With the main measurements that have been prepared
along with the main coefficients, further calculations can be carried out, starting from
ship resistance, calculating main motor power, DWT, LWT, etc.

A. Ship Obstacles

To calculate ship resistance, the Holtrop method is used. In this method, Holtrop divides
the total resistance into several resistance components. These components are viscous
resistance (viscosity resistance), appendages resistance (resistance due to the shape of
the ship), and wave making resistance (wave resistance due to the ship's motion).

B. Sea Transportation Costs

In shipping there is no cost classification standard that can be accepted internationally,

so an approach is used to classify it. These costs are divided into 4 categories:

1. Capital costs (capital costs)

18
 2. Operational costs (operational costs)
3. Shipping costs (voyage costs)
4. Loading and unloading costs (cargo handling costs)
C. Capital costs

Capital costs are costs incurred by shipping companies to procure fleets. (Akmal, 2014)
ship procurement can be done in several ways, including:
1. New building
This type of procurement involves building a new ship starting from scratch. The costs
incurred will be very large, but the ship obtained will also be new. Because it was built
from scratch, it took a long time to build it.
2. Used ship
Procurement of used ships is a quicker way to build a fleet. This procurement was carried
out by purchasing ships from other parties, which had previously been done. The costs
incurred are less, but the economic life of the ship has been reduced and maintenance
must be carried out.
3. Boat Rental/Charter
Leasing or what is usually called charter is one way of procuring a fleet of ships. Ship
rental is carried out by entering into a ship rental agreement (charter party) with the
ship owner to use the ship by paying the rental fee in accordance with the agreement.
4. Operational costs (operating costs)
Operational costs are fixed costs incurred for the daily operational aspects of the ship to
keep the ship always ready to sail. Included in operational costs are crew costs,
maintenance and repairs, stores, food ingredients, lubricating oil, insurance and
administration.
2.12 Optimization Methods
The optimization process is the application of scientific methods to complex problems and
the processing of large management systems, both involving people, machines, materials
and money in industry, business, government and defense. This approach combines and
applies very complex scientific methods in management processing using existing
production factors and is used efficiently and effectively to assist decision making in
company policy. (Taha, Operations Research, 1992). The optimization process is related to
scientific decision making and how to create a good model in designing and running a
system through the allocation of limited resources. The essence of the conclusions above is
the optimal decision making process using existing analytical tools and limited resources.
Several methods in the optimization process include:

19
 • Linear Programming
• Duality and Post-Optimal Analysis (Duality and Post-Optimal Analysis)
• Transportation Method
• Network Method
• Simplex Method (Simplex Method)
In carrying out an optimization process, there are several things that must be considered,
including lan; parameter variables, constants, constraints, and objective functions. The
various things above will later serve as a reference in carrying out the optimization process.
The explanation is as follows:

• Variables are the prices that will be sought in the optimization process.
• Parameters are values that do not change in magnitude during one optimization
process due to certain conditions. Or it can also be a variable that is given a price. The
data can be changed after one run to investigate the possibility of better results.
• Limits are prices or limit values that have been determined either by the planner,
orderer, regulations, or other conditions.
• The objective function is a relationship between all or several variables and parameters
whose prices will be optimized. This function can be linear, non-linear, or a
combination of both with other functions.
Linear Programming is a mathematical technique designed to assist managers in planning
and making decisions in allocating limited resources to achieve company goals. The
company's goal in general is to maximize profits, but due to limited resources, companies
can also minimize costs. Linear Programming has four special characteristics, namely:

1. Problem solving leads to achieving the goal of maximization or minimization.

2. Existing constraints limit the level of goal achievement.
3. There are several alternative solutions.
4. Mathematical relationships are linear.
Technically, there are five additional conditions of linear programming problems that must
be considered which are basic assumptions, namely:

1. Certainty (certainty). This means that the objective function and constraint function
are known with certainty and do not change during the analysis period.
2. Proportionality (proportionality). Namely, there is proportionality in the objective
function and constraint function.
3. Additivity (addition). This means that total activity is equal to the sum of individual
activities.
4. Divisibility (can be divided). This means that the solution does not have to be an
integer number, but can also be a fraction.
5. Non-negative variable (non-negative variable). This means that all answer or variable
20
 values are not negative.
In solving problems using Linear Programming, there are two approaches that can be
used, namely the graphic method and the simplex method. The graphic method can only
be used to solve problems where the decision variable is equal to two. Meanwhile, the
simplex method can be used to solve problems where there are two or more decision
variables.

3. RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

The main objectives of this research are to identify the conditions of the ferry transport
route, determine a calculation model for the optimal analysis of alternative crossing
transport routes across East Java, Bali and Lombok, analyze the impact of implementing
alternative direct crossing routes using roro ferry services on the route. ferry transportation
that is currently in effect. Therefore, to achieve these goals, it is very important to use a
holistic approach that ensures optimal results. Additionally, the research methodology used
in this study is outlined in this chapter.

3.1 Type, Location And Time Of Research

This type of research uses mixed research methods. The primary goal of mixed methods is
to provide a more comprehensive understanding of a research topic by leveraging both
qualitative and quantitative strengths. In addition, the research location is the place where
research is conducted. In this case, the object of research is Java Island and Bali Island,
connected by the Ketapang and Gilimanuk Ferry Ports. Ketapang Port is a port located in
Ketapang Village, Kalipuro District, Banywangi Regency, East Java, which is the main door
to the land route connecting the East End of Java Island (Ketapang) with the West End of
Bali Island (Gilimanuk). Meanwhile, the Gilimanuk Ferry Port is a port located in Gilimanuk
Village, Melaya District, Jembrana Regency. This research is planned for February 2024 to
May 2024. The following research plan can be seen in Table 1:

21
Table 1. Time Table

Month

No Activity Februari Mei

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

Research Preparation Stage

1 a. Hand-in Final Proposal

b. Result (GO)
Implementation Stage

2 a. Data Collection
b. Data Analysis
Report Preparation Stage
3
a. Hand-in Final Thesis

Note. The time table is adjusted to the RUAS academic calendar.

3.2 Research Design and Data Collection

This study employed the mixed method design which is the combination of qualitative and
quantitative approach to collect and analyze data (Tashakkori & Creswell, 2007). In recent
years, integrating qualitative and quantitative methods becomes common in research
(Bryman, 2006) because mixed method design can provide detailed and comprehensive
data in order to achieve the research objectives and answer the research questions.
Metodologi penelitian berisikan tentang langkah dan alur pengerjaan penelitian ini yang
direncanakan beserta metode yang digunakan. Bab ini berisikan kerangka berpikir dalam
bentuk diagram alir (flow chart) pengerjaan thesis peneliti.

A. Research Flow Chart

To facilitate the process of working on the final assignment, a flow diagram is needed to
illustrate the work process that will be carried out, the following is the flow diagram:

22
Type and Size of Ship Passenger Demand

Vehicle Demand

23
 Start

Identify Current Conditions B

A

Sea Transportation Cost Analysis

Analysis of land
transportation costs Capital costs
Supply Side Demand Side
Fixed cost Sea transportation cost Operating costs
analysis Travel expense Price
Non-fixed kapal
Number of Ships
costs
Total costs Biaya total Optimization model
Crossing Route  The main size of
the ship
Biaya Demand
unit projection
 Number of ships
Unit costs

Cost analysis, route comparison

Alternative crossing
cost
routes

time
reliability

Current route Long distance route

conclusion

finished
Route 1
Route 2 Route 3
Figure 3-1 Flow Diagram

A
B

24
B. Work Stages

The procedure for working on this Final Project is carried out in several stages in accordance
with the flow diagram above, namely:

1. Condition Identification Stages

At this stage, identification of the final assignment problems raised is carried out. The
problem that arises is the increasing volume of goods vehicle flows using the Ketapang-
Gilimanuk and Padangbai-Lembar crossing routes.

2. Supply Side Analysis Stage

Based on the problems that occurred in identifying current conditions, an alternative

crossing transportation route was created, namely a direct crossing route as follows

Route 2: Surabaya – Ketapang to Selamat

Route 3: Surabaya to Selamat

3. Route Analysis Stage

At this stage, an analysis of the current crossing route is carried out with an alternative
route, namely a direct crossing route. The analysis is carried out based on the location of
the crossing port, distance, time, frequency and number of ships needed

4. Cost, Time and Reliability Analysis Stage

At this stage, a cost analysis of each route is carried out, namely the costs of land
transportation and sea transportation. Reliability analysis is carried out based on the
impacts arising from each scenario when using alternative crossing routes.

5. Conclusions and Suggestions

At the end of this research, several conclusions will be drawn which are the results of
research that answers the questions in the problem formulation. Apart from that,
suggestions were also given for further research development

B. Mathematical Model

A mathematical model is a simple way to translate a problem into mathematical language

using equations, inequalities or functions. To plan a new route, planning is needed
regarding the mode of transportation that will be chosen to serve that route. At the
crossing from Surabaya to Selamat, an optimal solution is needed to determine the
selected mode of transportation in accordance with the expected optimization criteria,

25
namely based on minimum sea transportation costs. In the case of the problem of planning
a new direct crossing route in this research, the objective function of the mathematical
model is to minimize shipping costs (minimum costs) in the form of selecting a ship that is
in accordance with the ship's draft limit which is not higher than the depth of the port pool
and the demand (demand) that must be fulfilled.

Based on the mathematical model, Z (minimum cost) is the sum of sea transportation costs
(port to port) from the port of origin to the port of destination divided by the volume of
cargo from East Java to Lombok and vice versa. The following is the mathematical model
used in this research:

Objective Function:

Subject to:

L, B, H, T ≥

L, B, H, T ≤
Keterangan:

n = Number of Ships L = LPP

= Demand B = Ship Width

= Sea transportation costs (Port to Port) H = Ship Height

C = Capacity T = Loaded
= Height of Ship Loading

= Loaded Pier

Z = Minimum Cost

26
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