Bank of Israel - Information & Statistics Department

Expected Rate of Inflation

( Monthly averages, Percent)

Expected inflation rate,*

Average of
Calculated from capital marketa Forecasters
date For third for next 12
For first For second months3
year and
year1 year2
after2

B1May-14 1.4 1.8 2.2 1.5

B1Apr-14 1.4 2.5 2.3 1.6
B1Mar-14 1.7 2.6 2.3 1.6
B1Feb-14 1.8 2.5 2.3 1.6
B1Jan-14 1.7 2.6 2.3 1.7

B1Dec-13 1.6 2.7 2.4 1.7

B1Nov-13 1.4 2.5 2.5 1.7
B1Oct-13 1.5 2.3 2.4 1.8
B1Sep-13 1.5 2.2 2.4 1.9
B1Aug-13 1.4 2.3 2.4 1.8
B1Jul-13 1.4 2.4 2.4 1.9
B1Jun-13 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.0
B1May-13 1.9 2.1 2.4 1.8
B1Apr-13 2.1 2.0 2.3 1.8
B1Mar-13 2.8 2.1 2.4 1.9
B1Feb-13 2.6 2.1 2.5 1.9
B1Jan-13 2.4 2.3 2.7 1.9

B1Dec-12 2.2 2.2 2.6 1.9

B1Nov-12 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.9
B1Oct-12 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.2
B1Sep-12 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.6
B1Aug-12 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5
B1Jul-12 2.0 2.5 2.3 1.9
B1Jun-12 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1
B1May-12 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.4
B1Apr-12 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6
B1Mar-12 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5
B1Feb-12 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.3
B1Jan-12 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.2

B1Dec-11 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.3

B1Nov-11 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.2
B1Oct-11 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.2
B1Sep-11 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.4
B1Aug-11 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7
B1Jul-11 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.9
B1Jun-11 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.0
B1May-11 3.2 2.9 2.5 3.1
B1Apr-11 3.1 3.0 2.5 3.1
B1Mar-11 3.7 3.2 2.7 3.1
B1Feb-11 3.8 3.1 2.7 3.1
B1Jan-11 3.3 3.0 2.7 3.0

B1Dec-10 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.9

B1Nov-10 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.9
B1Oct-10 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.9
B1Sep-10 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.9
B1Aug-10 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0
B1Jul-10 3.0 2.8 2.6 3.0
B1Jun-10 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6
B1May-10 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7
B1Apr-10 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6
B1Mar-10 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.4
B1Feb-10 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.1
B1Jan-10 2.7 3.0 2.5 2.5

B1Dec-09 2.5 3.2 2.6 2.7

B1Nov-09 2.5 3.1 2.6 2.6
B1Oct-09 2.2 2.9 2.7 2.4
B1Sep-09 2.3 3.0 2.5 2.3
B1Aug-09 2.4 3.4 2.6 2.5
B1Jul-09 2.4 3.3 2.5 2.6
B1Jun-09 2.4 3.1 2.5 2.4
B1May-09 2.1 3.0 2.4 1.8
B1Apr-09 0.8 1.9 2.5 1.1
B1Mar-09 0.7 1.7 2.3 0.6
B1Feb-09 0.8 1.8 2.3 0.5
B1Jan-09 0.6 1.2 2.4 0.3

B1Dec-08 -0.7 0.2 2.5 0.4

B1Nov-08 -0.1 1.0 2.8 1.3
B1Oct-08 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.0
B1Sep-08 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.8
B1Aug-08 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.0
B1Jul-08 3.2 3.0 2.8 3.2
B1Jun-08 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.1
B1May-08 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.2
B1Apr-08 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.8
B1Mar-08 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6
B1Feb-08 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4
B1Jan-08 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.6

B1Dec-07 2.1 2.7 2.6 2.5

B1Nov-07 1.4 1.8 2.4 2.0
B1Oct-07 1.2 1.7 2.4 1.7
B1Sep-07 1.2 1.7 2.5 1.6
B1Aug-07 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.6
B1Jul-07 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.7
B1Jun-07 1.8 2.2 2.4 1.8
B1May-07 0.7 1.3 2.2 1.2
B1Apr-07 0.5 1.1 2.1 1.7
B1Mar-07 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.0
B1Feb-07 1.4 1.6 2.2 1.9
B1Jan-07 1.1 1.3 2.3 1.7

B1Dec-06 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.7

B1Nov-06 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.7
B1Oct-06 1.4 1.4 2.5 1.4
B1Sep-06 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.0
B1Aug-06 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.1
B1Jul-06 1.8 2.0 2.7 2.0
B1Jun-06 1.8 2.1 2.6 1.8
B1May-06 2.0 2.1 2.7 1.9
B1Apr-06 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.2
B1Mar-06 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.2
B1Feb-06 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.1
B1Jan-06 1.9 2.2 2.7 1.7

B1Dec-05 1.7 2.0 2.6 1.9

B1Nov-05 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.2
B1Oct-05 2.4 2.5 3.0 2.2
B1Sep-05 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.0
B1Aug-05 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.1
B1Jul-05 2.1 2.3 2.9 2.3
B1Jun-05 1.9 2.2 2.9 2.0
B1May-05 1.7 1.9 3.0 2.2
B1Apr-05 2.0 2.0 3.1 2.1
B1Mar-05 2.2 2.4 3.1 2.1
B1Feb-05 2.0 2.4 3.1 2.2
B1Jan-05 1.6 2.0 3.3 2.0

B1Dec-04 1.4 1.9 3.5 2.0

B1Nov-04 1.9 2.0 3.4 2.2
B1Oct-04 2.0 2.5 3.6 2.4
B1Sep-04 2.0 2.3 3.7 2.5
B1Aug-04 1.9 2.6 3.9 2.4
B1Jul-04 1.5 2.2 3.8 2.0
B1Jun-04 1.8 2.6 3.7 2.3
B1Apr-04 2.0 3.1 3.7 2.6
B1Apr-04 1.6 3.0 3.6 2.0
B1Mar-04 1.2 2.8 3.4 1.7
B1Feb-04 1.1 2.5 3.5 1.7
B1Jan-04 0.9 2.1 3.3 1.5

B1Dec-03 0.7 1.7 3.2 1.6

B1Nov-03 1.1 2.0 3.4 1.9
B1Oct-03 1.7 2.3 3.6 2.1
B1Sep-03 1.5 2.5 4.0 2.5
B1Aug-03 1.7 3.0 4.1 2.2
B1Jul-03 2.5 2.8 3.7 1.8
B1Jun-03 1.5 2.8 3.5 1.4
B1Mar-03 1.4 2.9 3.7 1.3
B1Mar-03 1.9 3.5 4.2 1.7
B1Mar-03 3.1 4.3 5.2 2.5
B1Feb-03 3.8 4.8 5.9 2.8
B1Jan-03 2.7 4.4 5.7 2.5

B1Dec-02 2.2 3.8 5.3 2.0

B1Nov-02 2.8 4.5 5.7 2.4
B1Oct-02 3.0 4.9 5.9 2.5
B1Sep-02 2.4 3.6 4.8 2.0
B1Aug-02 1.7 3.1 3.8 2.0
B1Jul-02 2.4 3.0 3.9 2.3
B1Jun-02 4.5 4.7 4.7 3.5
B1Feb-02 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4
B1Feb-02 2.5 3.2 3.1 2.6
B1Feb-02 2.1 2.7 2.4 2.6
B1Feb-02 3.0 1.3 2.5 3.0
B1Jan-02 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.8

B1Dec-01 0.6 3.0 2.8 1.6

B1Nov-01 0.6 3.8 3.2 1.8
B1Oct-01 1.7 2.3 2.7 2.6
B1Sep-01 2.8 3.0 2.1 2.7
B1Aug-01 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.2
B1Jul-01 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.0
B1Jun-01 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.0
B1May-01 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.2
B1Apr-01 1.2 1.7 1.8 2.5
B1Mar-01 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.5
B1Feb-01 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.5
B1Jan-01 0.8 2.0 2.8 2.2

B1Dec-00 0.4 1.6 2.9 2.5

B1Nov-00 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.9
B1Oct-00 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.8
B1Sep-00 1.6 1.9 3.0 2.4
B1Aug-00 1.6 2.6 3.4 3.0
B1Jul-00 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.6
B1Jun-00 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.0
B1May-00 3.2 2.3 2.9 3.9
B1Apr-00 2.4 2.5 3.2 3.6
B1Mar-00 1.8 3.0 4.3 3.4
B1Feb-00 2.1 3.5 4.7 3.7
B1Jan-00 1.8 4.0 4.9 3.7

B1Dec-99 2.5 5.1 5.3 4.1

B1Nov-99 3.4 5.6 5.5 4.5
B1Oct-99 4.6 5.8 5.2 4.9
B1Sep-99 5.6 4.3 4.9 5.1
B1Aug-99 5.0 5.4 5.1 5.0
B1Jul-99 3.7 6.4 5.4 4.9
B1Jun-99 4.8 6.1 5.1 5.3
B1May-99 5.9 4.7 5.7 5.6
B1Apr-99 5.0 5.9 6.0 5.4
B1Mar-99 5.6 6.4 5.2 5.3
B1Feb-99 5.0 6.3 6.0 5.2
B1Jan-99 5.1 7.7 6.9 4.9

B1Dec-98 6.2 7.7 6.5

B1Nov-98 8.4 5.6 5.6
B1Oct-98 8.7 4.9 4.5
B1Sep-98 5.7 3.0 3.8
B1Aug-98 4.7 3.1 3.9
B1Jul-98 3.1 3.5 4.4
B1Jun-98 3.1 5.1 6.1
B1May-98 4.2 4.9 5.7
B1Apr-98 5.8 6.2 6.4
B1Mar-98 4.6 6.9 8.1
B1Feb-98 5.8
B1Jan-98 6.5

B1Dec-97 7.2
B1Nov-97 8.0
B1Oct-97 7.5
B1Sep-97 8.3
B1Aug-97 9.1
B1Jul-97 9.0
B1Jun-97 7.4
B1May-97 8.4
B1Apr-97 8.7
B1Mar-97 9.1
B1Feb-97 8.5
B1Jan-97 8.5

B1Dec-96 8.9
B1Nov-96 10.1
B1Oct-96 10.8
B1Sep-96 10.8
B1Aug-96 10.3
B1Jul-96 10.7
B1Jun-96 11.9
B1May-96 11.5
B1Apr-96 10.9
B1Mar-96 10.1
B1Feb-96 9.7
B1Jan-96 9.2

B1Dec-95 9.1
B1Nov-95 9.0
B1Oct-95 9.4
B1Sep-95 10.0
B1Aug-95 9.0
B1Jul-95 8.0
B1Jun-95 8.5
 B1May-95 8.4
B1Apr-95 9.4
B1Mar-95 10.6
B1Feb-95 10.1
B1Jan-95 10.4

B1Dec-94 12.6
B1Nov-94 13.1
B1Oct-94 12.4
B1Sep-94 12.4
B1Aug-94 11.2
B1Jul-94 9.6
B1Jun-94 8.3
B1May-94 7.7
B1Apr-94 7.6
B1Mar-94 7.2
B1Feb-94 7.1
B1Jan-94 7.5

*Calculated on the basis of gross yield.

1.The explanation of the calculation up to 2004 appears in Appendix 1 In the

Inflation report for the second half of 1999 (page 22).
Link to the explanation:
http://www.bankisrael.org.il/deptdata/general/infrep/eng/inf9902e.htm

From January 2004 various adjustments were made in calculating inflation

expectations, the main ones of which were that the following were taken into
account: the seasonality of the CPI; price increases that had occurred but that
were not yet published; a
Link to the explanation (in Hebrew):
http://www.bankisrael.gov.il/deptdata/monetar/studies/mns0502h.pdf

From December 2004 the expectations were derived from the zero-coupon
interest curve based on market prices of CPI-indexed bonds, based on the
forward interest curve.
Link to the explanation :
http://www.bankisrael.gov.il/deptdata/monetar/m1_exp_e.pdf

2. Till March 2007 the expectations were calculated from yields on Shahar-
and Galil- or Sagi-type bonds for the same time periods.
From April 2007 the expectations were derived from the zero-coupon interest
curve

3. The simple average of inflation forecasts of the commercial banks and

economic consultancy companies that publish their forecasts on a regular basis.