Integrated phenological forecasting models for Pistacia vera L.

flowering
in Córdoba
Abstract

Keywords:
Introduction

Pistacia (Pistacia vera L.) is a dioecious tree crop endemic to regions with a temperate or warm
climate such as the Mediterranean, America and the Middle East, the Mediterranean and
America (Abidi, 2016). Its cultivation has been firmly strengthened in the Iberian Peninsula over
the last ten years, but has faced many challenges in terms of adaptability to climate and soil.
This crop genus consists of 11 species, of which P. vera (Eu terebintus) is the one that generates
economically important fruits (Lavín, Reyes & Almarza, 2014).

The pistachio surface has increased significantly during the last five years, which has generated
a growth in production of more than 251 thousand tons in the last five years, reaching more
than 825 thousand tons during the year 2022. For its part, the United States is the number 1
producer of pistachio in the world since it represents 63% of total production, followed by Iran,
Turkey and Syria (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, 2022).

From the point of view of demand, there are four main consumer countries: the US, China, the
European Union (hereinafter EU) and Turkey, which represent 70% of annual consumption
worldwide. It is worth highlighting the prosperity in terms of Egypt's consumption level during
the last 5 years, because it had an almost non-existent demand and now exceeds 22 thousand
tons per year (Arbeloa, García, Lorente, Andreu & Marín, 2023).

For its part, the area of land destined for the cultivation of pistachio in Spain has shown an
increasing behavior in recent years, reaching more than 61 thousand hectares during the year
2021. However, according to the ESYRCE survey, this could have increased to more than 66
thousand hectares during 2022, of which around 50% are under plantations of organic farming
systems, which underlines the importance of this sustainable management (Ministry of
Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, 2022).

In terms of regional production, Castilla-La Mancha represents 75% of the entire pistachio
production area in Spain. The cultivated area has increased significantly in recent years, with
67% of the plantations being considered new and 15% still in their initial year. For this reason,
harvest volumes are expected to increase significantly in the coming years, when these crops
reach their maximum potential (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, 2022).

The time it takes for pistachio crops to reach their maximum potential is the main reason why
an economic recovery period of more than 12 years can be established, added to the long
initial period of inactivity (Lorite, Cabezas, Arquero, Gabaldón & Lovera, 2020).

Regarding, the increase in domestic demand has caused a significant increase in national
production to satisfy the consumption of the domestic market, although most of the pistachio
crops are not yet at full capacity, which has generated a growth in imports in recent years.
Depending on local climatic characteristics, crop management, selection of rootstocks and
varieties, a full harvest can be achieved in approximately 10 years (Mahmoudi, Alipour,
Shamshiri & Esmaeili, 2022).

The Agro-Environmental Research Center (CIAG) "El Chaparrillo" in Spain has studied pistachio
cultivation for three decades. After the first decade of study, pistachio was considered suitable
for commercial production in the interior of Spain (Couceiro, Guerrero, Pérez & Rodríguez,
2017). The first challenge to face for pistachio cultivation is to determine the incidence of the
internal climate of the Iberian Peninsula on its phenological development, which is appropriate
for its use as a cultivation option (Benmoussa, Luedeling, Ghrab & Ben, 2020).
To this end, the CIAG has gradually and progressively introduced more than 50 varieties and
has carried out large-scale phenological research, establishing systems and models with
information and data from meteorological stations on experimental farms. It was determined
that climate has effects on various crop processes, such as growth, flowering, production and
fruit quality (Haokip, Shankar & Lalrinngheta, 2020).

To achieve better pistachio production, the arrangement of the plants in the crops is generally
organized as follows: each line of eleven trees has a male plant responsible for fertilizing ten
females. With the application of planting structures, pistachio cultivation begins to show
greater adaptability; however, there are still various drawbacks that must be faced, among
which the lack of phenological synchronization between male and female plants stands out,
which generates a reduction in the total production volume during harvest (Boinot, Alignier &
Storkey, 2024).

The lack of phenological synchrony between the male and female varieties of pistachio in Spain
is mainly due to the influence of climatic factors, which complicate the possibility of obtaining
synchronized pollination, particularly in years where high temperatures are experienced during
winter and low temperatures during spring (Couceiro, Guerrero, Pérez & Rodríguez, 2017). This
problem has become more common as a result of climate change, which has a direct influence
on all types of crops at the national level (Boinot, Alignier & Storkey, 2024).

In fruits with a cross-pollination process, such as pistachio, insufficient cold waves can reduce
this process and cause a decrease or loss of yield (Haokip, Shankar & Lalrinngheta, 2020).

Because phenology is influenced by temperature, carrying out observation and taking

phenological data related to meteorology can provide relevant information to determine the
flowering behavior of pistachios and establish a prediction model more accurate (Delgado,
Egea, Luedeling & Dapena, 2021).

Although male pollination of pistachio can last between 30 to 60 days and female fertilization a
period of two days, any variation in the phenological period and/or aerobiology of pollen has a
negative effect on the final production of pistachio. This problem endangers the production of
this type of fruit in the southern part of Spain, where this type of problem has been observed
(IPCC, 2022).

Another negative aspect detected in recent years in pistachio crops in Spain is the low
pollination of young trees, less than 7 years old, in addition to the inclusion of new varieties of
male plants that have low pollen generation (Galán & Thibaudon, 2020).

Currently, there are uncertainties regarding changes in the flowering of pistachios, due to
climate changes, which may lead to the transfer of this type of crop to regions with cold
climates for a longer period of time (Mahmoudi, Alipour, Shamshiri & Esmaeili, 2022).

It is for all this that a study has been designed to obtain more information on the phenological
and aerobic dynamics of both male and female pistachio vera L in Córdoba, which helps
determine the fertilization periods that allow optimization of the final production.

For the above reasons, the objective of this study is in part to systematize the flowering data of
pistacia vera L in Córdoba, in specific time periods, and to establish a prediction model based
on phenological observations of specific time periods. This work delves into the bioclimatic
requirements of the different commercial varieties of Pistachio that are planted in Andalusia. It
would be a continuation of a previous work (Cruz, 2019), where the phenological and
aerobiological behavior of the different varieties, males and females, was shown from a more
descriptive point of view, placing emphasis on the basic phenological synchronies and
asynchronies for the production of fruit.

The results of this research allow us to establish the importance of knowing the bioclimatic
requirements for a good adaptation of the pistachio Vera L crop in the different areas where
the different varieties could potentially be planted. Furthermore, accurate modeling of
flowering predictions is basic for the agricultural planning of the plantation and the subsequent
handling and management of the total production for its commercialization and optimization
of economic gains that guarantee its financial profitability.

To establish the prediction model, the UTAH method has been used, which focuses on
modifying the effect of environmental temperatures on the phenological flowering process of
Pistacia Vera L, allowing the establishment of the maximum temperatures at which obtains an
optimal flowering process. This will help determine the bioclimatic needs and the phenology
prediction modeling and evolution over time of this process that is so important for the
pistachio production process. For this, phenological data obtained from direct observation in
the three phases have been used: beginning of flowering, full flowering and completion.

Objectives:

Material and Methods

The study area belongs to the city of Córdoba, located in the Andalusian municipality, in Spain.
It is located at the base of the Sierra Morena on the edge of the Guadalquivir. It has a total area
of 1,245 km², which represents 9% of the total area of the entire province of Andalusia. The
city center is located on the banks of the Guadalquivir River, which crosses it from east to west.
Its altitude is 123 meters above sea level (INE, 2010).

The study was carried out specifically in an area intended for trial cultivation of the Andalusian
Institute of Agricultural, Fisheries, Food and Ecological Production Research and Training
(IFAPA), which is located on the limits of the community of Córdoba near the river. Guadalquivir

In relation to the climate of Córdoba, according to the Köppen scale, its classification is
Mediterranean, with mild and not very intense winters, this is due to its location with respect
to sea level. On the other hand, summers are hot, reaching maximum temperatures that
exceed 40 °C, with an average temperature of 26 °C. Rainfall occurs during the December-
February period with an average of 573 mm, due to the Atlantic influence, presenting droughts
during the rest of the year, typical of the Mediterranean climate (

It has been determined that the climatic conditions of the Guardiato region of Córdoba are
ideal for growing pistachios, because each year there are between 1,300-1,500 hours of cold,
which is exactly what pistachios need for optimal flowering and production. . Additionally, this
contributes to the diversification of agricultural activities in the region (Cuadernos Técnicos,
2020).

The phenological data collected ranges from the year 2019 to 2023, which represents a 5-year
sample, starting on March 5, 2019 until September 8, 2023 and has been collected from the 23
types of Vera L. pistachios object of the study. The analyzes carried out on the pistachio
varieties used were based on the phenological phase model (Guerrero, Gijón, Moriana, Rivero
& Couceiro, 2008), which segments the flowering phases from the emergence of the bud to the
formation of the fruit.

For their part, the pistachios used for the study are 15-year-old trees from an official supplier.
Taking into account 23 varieties of pistachio plants, of which 9 were male and 14 female, using
at least three samples for each variety, so there is a total sample of 68 individuals, as shown in
the Table 1.

The collection of phenological information of the 23 types of pistachios to be analyzed was

carried out on a weekly basis, with the study trees randomly selected. The phenological
information was noted individually for each tree, using a numerical system to define the
phenophase, with a minimum rating of 7 and maximum of 77.

All information used in the study was collected and studied by species, date and phenological
stage. In the case of the phenological phase, it was obtained by calculating the average of the
stages for each individual, with which scatter graphs were constructed that allowed estimating
the patterns and trends of the data during the years of the study. While for the aerobiological
data, curve graphs were made with the raw information, in addition to curves with the
normalized data, which helped to compare behavior between the different years.

For the statistical analysis of the collected data that allows us to delve deeper into the behavior
and trends of the phenology and pollination of the pistachio plants under study, ChillR and
PhenoR (for Phenological Data) has been used, which is based on the phenological study. per
season, adjusted to the method proposed by Werchan, Werchan & Bergann (2018). This
method is applied after obtaining the average daily concentration of pollen, which allows
calculating different pollination periods for the different types of pollen of the plants used in
the research. For this, the program has different data on the most common pollen.

Regarding the main pollination time, it is determined as a proportion or percentage of the total
annual amount of pollen defined by the parameter perc1 (selectable by the researcher, default
at 80%; red). Therefore, if perc1 = 80, it is marked that the high season begins with reaching an
initial annual value of 10%; It is selected to end when it reaches 90%.

The early/late pollination period is defined by the parameter perc2 (selectable by the
researcher, the default value is 99% of the total annual pollen; orange), that is, the beginning of
the period is when 0.5% is obtained and the last moment of pollination is when 99.5% is
reached.

For this type of pollination schedule, the parameter th.pollen establishes the possible periods
of appearance, as used by Werchan, Werchan & Bergann (2018), establishing the phase
between the beginning and the end of optimal pollination (yellow).

Figure 1. Pollen calendar

Source: Werchan, Werchan & Bergann (2018)

Figure 1. Models used for analyzes12

1
https://inresgb-lehre.iaas.uni-bonn.de/chillR_book/introduction.html
2
https://bluegreen-labs.github.io/phenor/
Results

Discussion

Conclusions

Acknowledgements

References

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