Lecture 8

Lecture 8
Chapter 7: Sampling Distributions

Sampling Distribution of a Sample Proportion
Department of Statistics
Western Michigan University
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Objectives
After completing this lecture, students should be able to:
Describe and use the sampling distribution of the sample

proportion.
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Calculating a Sample Proportion
Suppose a student guesses at the answer to every question in

a 300-question exam.
If he gets 60 questions correct, then his proportion of correct

guesses is 60/300 = 0.20.
If he gets 75 questions correct, then his proportion of correct

guesses is 75/300 = 0.25.
The proportion of correct guesses is simply the number of

correct guesses divided by the total number of questions.
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Calculating a Sample Proportion
Let X denote the number of successes out of a sample of n

observations.
If each response has a probability p of being a success and the

observations are independent of each other, then X is a
binomial random variable with parameters n and p. (Recall
from Lecture 6 in Chapter 6)
Furthermore, the sample proportion, or proportion of

successes, in the sample is also a random variable.
X Number of successes
p̂ = =
n Number of observations in the sample
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iClicker 8.1
Suppose we flip a coin 10 times and you get 7 heads. What is the
sample proportion of heads?
A. 0.5
B. 0.7
C. 5
D. 7
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Sample Distribution of a Sample Proportion
Lets consider flipping a coin 10 times again. What proportion

of the time would we expect to get a head?
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of the time would we expect to get a head? 0.5, or 50%
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Now lets actually flip the coin. If we obtain 4 heads, then the
proportion of times we got a head is
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proportion of times we got a head is p̂ = 4/10 = 0.4.
If we obtain 5 heads, then the proportion of times we got a

head is
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head is p̂ = 5/10 = 0.5.
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head is p̂ = 5/10 = 0.5.

head is p̂ = 8/10 = 0.8.
What we see is that while we expect the proportion of heads

to be 0.5, it will not necessarily be exactly that. Our results
may vary from what we expect.
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From this, we obtain the expected value of p̂
E (p̂) = p
This equation is essentially saying that we expect whatever p, the

population proportion, truly is.
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But just because this is what we expect doesn’t mean that’s
what will happen.
When tossing a coin 10 times, we could obtain 4 heads. We
could obtain 8.
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what will happen.
could obtain 8.
We could obtain as few as
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what will happen.
could obtain 8.
We could obtain as few as 0
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what will happen.
could obtain 8.
We could obtain as few as 0 and as many as
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what will happen.
could obtain 8.
We could obtain as few as 0 and as many as 10.
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what will happen.
could obtain 8.
As such, we need a standard error.
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what will happen.
could obtain 8.
As such, we need a standard error.
r r
pq p(1 − p)
σp = =
n n
where
σp = the standard error of the proportion
n = the sample size
p = the probability of a success
q = 1 − p = the probability of a failure
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Note that the term “standard error” was used. This has the same
interpretation as a standard deviation, however we will now use
this term to demonstrate that we are looking at repeated samples.
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To further illustrate this point, lets toss the coin once.
We either get a head (success) or we get a tail (failure).
There is a 50% chance we get a head and a 50% chance we

get a tail.
Proportion of Heads Probability

0 0.5
1 0.5
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Lets now toss the coin twice. What are the possible results?
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Head, Head
Head, Tail
Tail, Head
Tail, Tail
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Head, Head
Head, Tail
Tail, Head
Tail, Tail
Proportion of Heads Probability Tossed

0 0.25 Tail, Tail
0.5 0.5 Head, Tail or Tail, Head
1 0.25 Head, Head
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As one more example, consider flipping the coin 5 times.
We will not work through all the possible outcomes, but we

know that we could have
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know that we could have 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 heads.
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know that we could have 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 heads.
Proportion of Heads Probability

0 0.03125
0.2 0.15625
0.4 0.3125
0.6 0.3125
0.8 0.15625
1 0.03125
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We will now consider a larger number of tosses. The figure below
looks at the possibility when tossing a coin 10, 50, 100 and 500
times.
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We notice that the center of all these plots is at 0.5, which is

the population proportion, p.
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The spread of the possibilities
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The spread of the possibilities decreases as the sample size
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The spread of the possibilities decreases as the sample size

increases.
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Law of Large Numbers for Sample Percentages: The sample

percentage tends to get closer to the true percentage as the
sample size increases.
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Lets refer to the equation for the standard error and consider
our various sample sizes. First for one toss.
We still expect the proportion of heads to be 0.5 (p), but we

know that that won’t be the case.
We need a “give or take” value, which is the standard error.
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r
0.5(1 − 0.5)
σp =
1
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r
0.5(1 − 0.5)
σp = = 0.5
1
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r
0.5(1 − 0.5)
σp = = 0.5
1
So for one toss, we expect the proportion of heads to be 0.5, give

or take 0.5.
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What about two tosses?
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r
0.5(1 − 0.5)
σp =
2
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r
0.5(1 − 0.5)
σp = = 0.354
2
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r
0.5(1 − 0.5)
σp = = 0.354
2
When we toss a coin twice, we expect the proportion of heads to

be 0.5, give or take 0.354.
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Lets do the same for 5 tosses.
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r
0.5(1 − 0.5)
σp =
5
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r
0.5(1 − 0.5)
σp = = 0.224
5
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r
0.5(1 − 0.5)
σp = = 0.224
5
When we toss a coin 5 times, we expect the proportion of heads to

be 0.5, give or take 0.224.
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Lets now consider the calculations for the standard error when we
toss a coin 10, 50, 100, and 500 times.
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10 tosses:
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q
0.5(1−0.5)
10 tosses: σp = 10
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q
0.5(1−0.5)
10 tosses: σp = 10 = 0.158
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q
0.5(1−0.5)
10 tosses: σp = 10 = 0.158
50 tosses:
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q
0.5(1−0.5)
10 tosses: σp = 10 = 0.158
q
0.5(1−0.5)
50 tosses: σp = 50
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q
0.5(1−0.5)
10 tosses: σp = 10 = 0.158
q
0.5(1−0.5)
50 tosses: σp = 50 = 0.071
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q
0.5(1−0.5)
10 tosses: σp = 10 = 0.158
q
0.5(1−0.5)
50 tosses: σp = 50 = 0.071
100 tosses:
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q
0.5(1−0.5)
10 tosses: σp = 10 = 0.158
q
0.5(1−0.5)
50 tosses: σp = 50 = 0.071
q
0.5(1−0.5)
100 tosses: σp = 100
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q
0.5(1−0.5)
10 tosses: σp = 10 = 0.158
q
0.5(1−0.5)
50 tosses: σp = 50 = 0.071
q
0.5(1−0.5)
100 tosses: σp = 100 = 0.05
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q
0.5(1−0.5)
10 tosses: σp = 10 = 0.158
q
0.5(1−0.5)
50 tosses: σp = 50 = 0.071
q
0.5(1−0.5)
100 tosses: σp = 100 = 0.05
500 tosses:
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q
0.5(1−0.5)
10 tosses: σp = 10 = 0.158
q
0.5(1−0.5)
50 tosses: σp = 50 = 0.071
q
0.5(1−0.5)
100 tosses: σp = 100 = 0.05
q
0.5(1−0.5)
500 tosses: σp = 500
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q
0.5(1−0.5)
10 tosses: σp = 10 = 0.158
q
0.5(1−0.5)
50 tosses: σp = 50 = 0.071
q
0.5(1−0.5)
100 tosses: σp = 100 = 0.05
q
0.5(1−0.5)
500 tosses: σp = 500 = 0.022
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q
0.5(1−0.5)
10 tosses: σp = 10 = 0.158
q
0.5(1−0.5)
50 tosses: σp = 50 = 0.071
q
0.5(1−0.5)
100 tosses: σp = 100 = 0.05
q
0.5(1−0.5)
500 tosses: σp = 500 = 0.022
As expected from looking at the histograms, as the sample size

(number of tosses) increases, the standard error (spread)decreases.
When we toss a coin 500 times, we expect the proportion of heads

to be 0.5, give or take 0.022.
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iClicker 8.2
According to the CDC, 42.5% of adults were considered obese in

2017-2018. Suppose you sample 100 adults. What proportion of
the 100 sample adults would you expect to be obese?
A. 0.0425
B. 0.425
C. 0.5
D. 4.25
E. 42.5
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iClicker 8.3

2017-2018. Suppose you sample 100 adults. What is the standard
error for the sample proportion of adults that are obese?
A. 0.0049
B. 0.020
C. 0.049
D. 0.425
E. 4.94
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iClicker 8.4

2017-2018. Suppose you sample 500 adults instead of 100. What
would happen to the expected value of p̂ compared to your answer
in 8.2?
A. Increase
B. Decrease
C. Stays the same
D. Depends on the sample results
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iClicker 8.5

2017-2018. Suppose you sample 500 adults instead of 100. What
would happen to the standard error compared to your answer in
8.3?
A. Increase
B. Decrease
C. Stays the same
D. Depends on the sample results
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iClicker 8.6

2017-2018. Suppose you sample 500 adults. Which of the
following statements is true?
A. We expect the number of adults in our sample that are obese

to be 0.425, give or take 0.022.
B. We expect the proportion of adults in our sample that are
obese to be 0.425, give or take 0.022.
C. We expect the proportion of adults in our sample that are
obese to be 0.425, give or take 0.00099.
D. We cannot make a conclusion without results from our sample.
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Lecture 8

Chapter 7: Sampling Distributions

After completing this lecture, students should be able to:

Describe and use the sampling distribution of the sample

Suppose a student guesses at the answer to every question in

If he gets 60 questions correct, then his proportion of correct

If he gets 75 questions correct, then his proportion of correct

The proportion of correct guesses is simply the number of

Let X denote the number of successes out of a sample of n

If each response has a probability p of being a success and the

Furthermore, the sample proportion, or proportion of

Lets consider flipping a coin 10 times again. What proportion

Lets consider flipping a coin 10 times again. What proportion

Lets consider flipping a coin 10 times again. What proportion

Lets consider flipping a coin 10 times again. What proportion

If we obtain 5 heads, then the proportion of times we got a

Lets consider flipping a coin 10 times again. What proportion

If we obtain 5 heads, then the proportion of times we got a

Lets consider flipping a coin 10 times again. What proportion

If we obtain 5 heads, then the proportion of times we got a

If we obtain 8 heads, then the proportion of times we got a

What we see is that while we expect the proportion of heads

From this, we obtain the expected value of p̂

This equation is essentially saying that we expect whatever p, the

To further illustrate this point, lets toss the coin once.

We either get a head (success) or we get a tail (failure).

There is a 50% chance we get a head and a 50% chance we

Proportion of Heads Probability

Proportion of Heads Probability Tossed

As one more example, consider flipping the coin 5 times.

We will not work through all the possible outcomes, but we

As one more example, consider flipping the coin 5 times.

We will not work through all the possible outcomes, but we

As one more example, consider flipping the coin 5 times.

We will not work through all the possible outcomes, but we

Proportion of Heads Probability

We notice that the center of all these plots is at 0.5, which is

We notice that the center of all these plots is at 0.5, which is

The spread of the possibilities

We notice that the center of all these plots is at 0.5, which is

The spread of the possibilities decreases as the sample size

We notice that the center of all these plots is at 0.5, which is

The spread of the possibilities decreases as the sample size

Law of Large Numbers for Sample Percentages: The sample

We still expect the proportion of heads to be 0.5 (p), but we

We need a “give or take” value, which is the standard error.

We still expect the proportion of heads to be 0.5 (p), but we

We need a “give or take” value, which is the standard error.

We still expect the proportion of heads to be 0.5 (p), but we

We need a “give or take” value, which is the standard error.

We still expect the proportion of heads to be 0.5 (p), but we

We need a “give or take” value, which is the standard error.

So for one toss, we expect the proportion of heads to be 0.5, give

What about two tosses?

What about two tosses?

What about two tosses?

What about two tosses?

When we toss a coin twice, we expect the proportion of heads to

Lets do the same for 5 tosses.

Lets do the same for 5 tosses.

Lets do the same for 5 tosses.

Lets do the same for 5 tosses.

When we toss a coin 5 times, we expect the proportion of heads to