Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 5

Current Secondary Market Landscape

November 2023 / Confidential

Jefferies LLC
Member SIPC
The information provided in this document, including valuation discussions, represents the views of Jefferies Investment Banking. There is no assurance that the views expressed herein
will be consistent with the views expressed by Jefferies Research or its Analysts. Nothing in this document should be understood as a promise or offer of favorable research coverage.
Peak Buyside Capital
The secondary buyside has record levels of capital following successful fundraising over the past 12-24 months

Dedicated Buyside Capital Target Buyer Portfolio Profile

▪ LPs should capitalize now on peak dedicated secondary capital


as the largest buyers recently completed sizable fundraises and Composition
are not expected to return to the market for ~24 months
▲ Diversification
▲ Well-Known GPs
Near-Term Remaining
Available $29B $15B Buyers ▲ Limited Public Exposure
Leverage

Next 10
$29B Buyers
Near-Term
$66B Strategy
Fundraising

▲ Buyout Funds & Co-Investments


▲ Infrastructure
▲ Senior Credit / Direct Lending

Top 10
$81B Buyers
Equity
Dry Powder
$125B Vintage / Geography

▲ Harvesting Distributions
▲ North American Preference
▲ Minimal Asia / Emerging Markets

Total $220B

Note: Leverage estimated as approximately 15% of equity dry powder plus near-term fundraising
Source: Preqin & Investor Relation Memos
Jefferies LLC / November 2023 1
Catalysts for Secondary Sales
The M&A and IPO markets remain largely shut as LPs look to the secondary market to generate near-term liquidity

Shift in Primary Seller Rationale

H1 2023 Q3 2023

While H1 sellers 1 Portfolio Rebalancing / PE Overallocation 1 Generate Liquidity / De-Risk Portfolio


sought reduced PE
allocations, LPs
now prioritize 2 Administrative / Vehicle Wind-Down 2 Administrative / Vehicle Wind-Down
near-term liquidity
as distributions 3 Reduce Non-Core Managers / Strategies 3 Portfolio Rebalancing / PE Overallocation
falter
4 Generate Liquidity / De-Risk Portfolio 4 Reduce Non-Core Managers / Strategies

Private Equity Net Cash Flows Turn Deeply Negative


($ in Billions)
Lagging distributions persist as LPs
$30
face greater need for liquidity
$20

$10

$0

($10)

($20)

($30)

($40)

($50)
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Jefferies estimates


Jefferies LLC / November 2023 2
Consistent Increases in LP Pricing
LP secondary market pricing continues to move upward for most strategies in 2023 as buyers remain eager to deploy record levels of capital

LP Secondary Market Pricing


(% of NAV)
All Buyout Venture Credit Real Estate

100% 99%
97% 97%

95% 93% 93%


92% 92% 92%
93% 90% 90%
89%
90% 88% 88%
87%
86% 86%
85%
84%
85% 83% 87% 83%
81%
83% 83%
79% 79%
80% 78%

76% 76%
77%
75% 73%
75% 72% 72%

70% 71% 69% 68%

68%

65%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 H1 2023 Q3 2023

Venture Real Estate Credit Buyout


▲ Strongest pricing for more ▲ Buyers drawn to stability of ▲ Increasing amounts of dedicated ▲ Buyers able to rapidly diligence
conservatively marked funds industrial and logistics assets private capital has been raised large / mega-cap exposure
▼ Buyers averse to Asia / emerging ▼ Difficult exit environment amid ▲ Post-2016 senior direct lending ▲ Middle market demand continues to
markets exposure rising interest rates funds are in high demand outpace supply
▼ Valuation uncertainty due to stale ▼ Office and retail remain out of favor ▼ Wider discounts for funds prone to ▼ Buyers are wary of ’20-’21 vintage
fundraising marks given reduction in re-leasing rates increased default risk funds invested at peak valuations
Source: Jefferies estimates
Jefferies LLC / November 2023 3
Important Disclosure

The information contained in this document is confidential and based solely on publicly available information and certain other
information available to Jefferies LLC (“Jefferies”). Jefferies has relied, without independent investigation or verification, on the
accuracy, completeness and fair presentation of all such information. None of Jefferies, its affiliates or its or their respective
employees, directors, officers, contractors, advisors, members, successors, representatives or agents makes any representation or
warranty in respect of the accuracy, completeness or fair presentation of any information or any conclusion contained herein.
Jefferies, its affiliates and its and their respective employees, directors, officers, contractors, advisors, members, successors and
agents shall have no liability with respect to any information or matter contained herein.

Neither Jefferies nor any of its affiliates is an advisor as to legal, tax, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This
presentation shall not constitute an offer, nor a solicitation of an offer, of the sale or purchase of securities.

This presentation is confidential and may not be distributed to any other person or replicated in any form without the prior written
consent of Jefferies.

Jefferies LLC / November 2023 7

You might also like