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AFE 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 937 (2021) 022104 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/937/2/022104

Analysis of the market potential of poultry meat and its forecast

L M Roiter*, I V Vedenkina and N A Eremeeva

All-Russian Poultry Research and Technological Institute of the Russian Academy of

Sciences, 10, Ptitsegradskaya, Sergiev Posad, 141311, Russian Federation

E-mail: roiter.lia@mail.ru

Abstract. The agri-food market is one of the strategic ones, since it ensures the food security of
the country's population. A significant aspect in the implementation of the new Doctrine of food
security are products containing animal protein, including meat. Poultry farming has significant
competitive advantages over other subsectors of animal husbandry in terms of investment
attractiveness, purchasing opportunities for poultry meat and its processed products, dietary
properties, and is also a product for all religious denominations. Analysis of the market potential
of poultry meat in Russia in comparison with global trends showed the existence of unfilled
niches both in the domestic and foreign markets. The main ones are the insufficient self-
sufficiency of certain regions of the country with this product, the norms of poultry meat
consumption in comparison with the leading countries, the low level of deep processing in most
economic entities, the low share of meat from other types of poultry, almost absence of organic
products on the market, and insignificant export volumes of poultry meat. Along with this,
through a SWOT-analysis, the strengths and weaknesses of the industry, its threats and potential
opportunities, as well as their combination, which is advisable to take into account when
developing a strategy to improve the efficiency of the industry, have been identified. Taking into
account the obtained results, a scheme for expanding the market potential of poultry meat is
proposed, and its forecast for 2030 is given. The combination of these developments will allow
the industry to increase the economic viability of its economic entities and expand the market
potential of the target poultry meat market.

1. Introduction
The development of the agro-industrial complex is directly related to ensuring the food security of the
country's population. This strategy is consistent with the new Doctrine of food security in Russia [1, 2,
3]. Among the livestock subsectors, this goal is being successfully implemented in poultry farming,
which has competitive advantages over others.
Poultry meat is the fastest growing segment in the world meat market. Russia occupies the 4th place
in terms of production of broiler meat. This type of product can be classified as strategic, since its share
in the total amount of consumed animal protein, which is necessary for the full development of a person,
is 26.4%.
In this regard, the expansion of the market potential of this target segment is relevant, and, therefore,
it is necessary to conduct a detailed study of the current state of the poultry meat market, identify market
niches, and develop proposals for filling them. At the same time, an analysis of the factors hindering the
development of the industry and the expansion of the market potential of poultry meat is required.

Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution
of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd 1
AFE 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 937 (2021) 022104 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/937/2/022104

2. Materials and methods

The scientific and methodological basis of the study was made up of regulatory legal acts, state programs
for the development of the industry, statistical materials of the Ministry of Agriculture, Russian Poultry
Union, Russian Federal State Statistics Service, the development of domestic and foreign scientists and
economists on market potential using scientific classification methods, logical and comparative analysis,
calculation and constructive, economic and statistical, point and expert assessments.

3. Results
The meat market is one of the most significant food markets in Russia. In its structure in 2020, poultry
meat resources accounted for more than 50% (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Structure of meat resources, taking into account by-products, 2020

Moreover, the growth rates of poultry meat in the period from 2014 to 2020 have a positive trend,
the growth is 12.1%, while for pork - 41.8%. Such a significant increase in pork is compensated by a
decrease in beef by 26.3% [4, 5]. In general, this transformation is in line with global trends. In
economically developed countries, the structure of production and consumption is dominated by the
early-maturing and most accessible types of meat (pork and poultry), since their production is highly
efficient. The reduction in beef consumption is caused not only by the high price, but also by the fact
that Russia imports a significant part of it from Belarus and Latin America, and, due to the weakening
of the ruble, the value of imports for this type of meat is decreasing. At the same time, the number of
cattle in Russia continues to decline due to the higher efficiency of the dairy herd. In this regard, in the
category of red meat, the prospects are shifting towards an increase in the consumption of lamb, when
the investments that have begun in this sector will balance the price between supply and demand [6, 7].
With regard to the balance of poultry meat, the prevailing position is occupied by broiler meat, taking
into account meat-bearing chickens, and only 12% is accounted for by other types of poultry (Figure 2),
which indicates the possibility of expanding the market potential of this segment.

Figure 2. Poultry meat balance structure

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AFE 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 937 (2021) 022104 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/937/2/022104

The market for these types of poultry will follow the global trends towards an increase in the volume
of meat production, since it belongs to the segment of healthy nutrition in terms of its nutritional
characteristics. However, according to the data presented in Figure 3, there was no significant increase
over the three years from 2018 to 2020 for turkey, geese, ducks and other birds.

350.0 301.5
288.0
300.0 271.8
250.0
200.0
150.0
77.5 65.2 66.0
100.0
50.0 16.1 16.2 2.6 2.6 2.7
0.0 16.2
turkey geese ducks other bird
2018 2019 2020

Figure 3. Dynamics of meat production of other types of poultry, thousand tons of live weight
At the end of 2020, enterprises included in the TOP-25 for the production of poultry meat produced
4,655 thousand tons of broiler meat in live weight, which is 74.79% of the total volume of poultry meat
produced in the country, the TOP-5 producers account for over 41 %, the TOP-10 – more than 55%,
TOP-3 – 4% [6].
Among the leaders in meat producers are the Cherkizovo Group of Companies with a volume of
poultry meat production in 2020 of 794 thousand tons of poultry meat in live weight, including 57.8
thousand tons of turkey meat. Its share in the total industrial production of poultry meat was 13.8%. The
second place is taken by the Resource Group of Companies with production volumes of 708 thousand
tons of poultry meat and with an 11.3% share of the domestic poultry meat market. Prioskolye closes
the top three poultry producers with a production volume of 435 thousand tons of poultry meat in live
weight.
Self-sufficiency in poultry meat per capita was studied in the context of regions (Table 1).
Table 1. Grouping of Russian regions by the level of self-sufficiency in poultry meat
Years
Criterion, %
2014 2017 2018 2019
C>125 27 28 31 31
100<C≤125 11 9 9 9
75<C≤100 14 14 10 9
50<C≤75 8 9 9 9
25<C≤50 4 4 5 6
C≤25 18 18 18 18
Total 82 82 82 82

Of the entire analyzed set, 40 regions are self-sufficient in poultry meat per capita. In general, it is
they who provide the export component for this type of product. As a rule, this regional distribution of
self-sufficiency is caused by the proximity to the feed base and sales markets. The leading positions here

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AFE 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 937 (2021) 022104 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/937/2/022104

are occupied by the Central Federal District, whose population is 27%, and more than 37% of all poultry
meat is produced.
Opportunities to expand the market potential of poultry meat are typical for the North-West, Siberian,
South, North-Caucasian federal districts. Especially in the first two districts, these prospects are clear,
since the population is over 70%.
At the same time, we can state a possible expansion of the market potential of poultry meat due to
an increase in its consumption rates by the population. The consumption of meat in the world is
increasing, and primarily of poultry meat. According to the FAO forecast, in 2020, the volume of meat
production in the world amounted to 315 million tons, and its per capita consumption exceeded 45 kg.
The difference in the world consumption of meat of various types per capita was noted (Table 2).
Table 2. World consumption of all types of meat, kg/person/year
Comparison with
Years Structure, %
Indicator 2018 (%)
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2016 2017 2018
Consumption per
34.25 34.37 34.3 100.15 99.80 100 100 100
capita, total
including:
cattle meat 6.45 6.51 6.5 100.78 99.85 18.83 18.94 18.95
pork 12.28 12.27 12.21 99.43 99.51 35.85 35.70 35.60
poultry 13.79 13.86 13.84 100.36 99.86 40.26 40.33 40.35
lamb 1.73 1.73 1.75 101.16 101.16 5.05 5.03 5.10

The analysis of global trends in the consumption of meat of all types indicates the priority in the
development of poultry farming. Among the leaders in the consumption of poultry meat are the UAE
(100 kg/capita per year), Israel and Hong Kong - 59 kg each, the USA - 48.9 kg, Australia - 44 kg and
others.
In relation to the CIS member states, the leaders in the consumption of poultry meat are Belarus -
34.5 kg, and Russia - 34.4 kg per capita. These figures are higher than the European average (23.9 kg).
In the study of the issue of consumption of various types of poultry meat in comparison with the world
level for waterfowl (geese, ducks), these values differ significantly. Relative to the market for turkey
meat in Russia, it is growing steadily due to the growth in consumption. In 2020, on average, there were
2.1 kg of turkey per Russian per year, while in Israel this figure reaches 20 kg. Consequently, the market
potential of turkey, ducks, geese and other poultry meat must be supplemented with these components
that form the balance of poultry meat.
Thus, the main directions of expanding the market potential of poultry meat at the expense of internal
reserves are the growth of self-sufficiency of regions, consumption per capita, the share of meat from
other types of poultry, production of halal and kosher brands, functional and organic products and deep
processing of this type of product. There are also reserves for increasing the volume of exported products
(Figure 4), i.e. expanding the geography of supplies.

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AFE 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 937 (2021) 022104 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/937/2/022104

600
63
500
400 300
300 73.6 115 163.9 186.2 210.4
200 473.1
100 267.5 249.5 230.8 224.4 229.9 230
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
import export

Figure 4. Dynamics of changes in the volume of imports and exports in the poultry meat market,
thousand tons
During the period of the sanctions’ regime, the volume of imports decreased by half from 473.1
thousand tons in 2014 to 230 thousand tons at the end of 2020, and the export of poultry meat increased
almost 5 times from 63 thousand tons to 300 thousand tons, respectively. However, about 6% of all
poultry meat produced in Russia is exported. In this regard, the increase in export shipments is one of
the main drivers of the market potential of poultry meat [8].
The geography of Russia's foreign trade transactions in poultry meat is shown in Figure 5.
Belarus Kazakhstan
57% 3% Turkey
2%
Thailand
2%
Paraguay
1%
Argentina
7%

Brazil
28%

a) import
Vietnam Abkhazia Belarus
Saudi Arabia 10% 1% 0.2%
7% Other countries
Kyrgyzstan 7%
6%
Armenia
2% China
UAE 30%
1%
Benin
1%
Kazakhstan
Ukraine (DPR and LPR)
14%
21%

b) export
Figure 5. Geography of foreign trade transactions of Russia for poultry meat

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AFE 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 937 (2021) 022104 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/937/2/022104

Poultry meat is supplied to Russia from the CIS countries and Latin America, whose share is 96% of
imports. Moreover, the Republic of Belarus accounts for 57%, and Brazil – 28%.
China (30%) and DPR and LPR (21%), as well as Kazakhstan (14%) and Vietnam (10%) occupy a
significant share in the export of Russian poultry meat. In the exported assortment line, more than 43%
are legs and wings, 36% are offal, and only 21% is a broiler chicken carcass. The Persian Gulf countries
are a promising niche for poultry meat exports, whose share currently occupies only 8%. The limiting
factor in the expansion of this segment is the availability of domestic and international certification in
accordance with halal standards.
The development of the industry is carried out in the context of constantly changing internal and
external factors. In the course of the analysis, the directions of expanding the market potential of poultry
meat were identified. To fill the niche segments of this target market, it is necessary to identify the
strengths and weaknesses of the industry, its threats and potential opportunities through the use of such
an analytical tool as SWOT-analysis [9].
Based on the survey data of specialists in different areas of poultry farming, to substantiate the
strategy for expanding the market potential of poultry meat, the 5 strongest and weakest aspects of the
industry were selected against the background of the selection of 5 promising opportunities and 5 most
important threats that reduce the performance of this target market. These survey results are
systematized and presented in Table 3.
Table 3. Factors determining the effectiveness of domestic poultry farming
Strengths (S) Weaknesses (W)
S1 - uniformity of production throughout the W1 - import dependence on pedigree resources,
year and stable growth rates; veterinary drugs, feed additives, processing
equipment;
S2 - fast payback of industry production; W2 - monopolization of target markets;
S3 - high speed of implementation of W3 - international political and economic
scientific and technological progress sanctions against Russia;
achievements in matters of feeding
maintenance and breeding work;
S4 - products of the industry and its W4 - differentiation of investments to support
processing are consumed as food without any the economic entities of the industry from the
medical, cultural and religious restrictions; budgets of all levels by the constituent entities of
the Russian Federation;
S5 - a wide range of product portfolio W5 - high proportion of material costs per unit
of production
Opportunities (O) Threats (T)
O1 - export of main products and by- T1 - decrease in the level of economic viability
products; of economic entities in the industry;
O2 - decrease in import dependence on basic T2 - expansion of the international sanctions’
resources; portfolio against Russia;
O3 - diversification of target markets for T3 - increased competition in target markets due
industry products; to alternative protein products of animal and
plant origin;
O4 - increasing the competitiveness of T4 - the disparity in prices for consumed
products resources and manufactured products;
O5 - state support for the industry, including T5 - unfavorable epidemiological situation
by its economic entities

In order to determine the degree of influence of each of the factors of the strengths and weaknesses
of the industry, a point score was used (from 1 – minimum to 5 – maximum). The significance of the
opportunities and threats to the industry was established through the following types of assessments:

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AFE 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 937 (2021) 022104 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/937/2/022104

- the probability of realizing opportunities or threats pj on a scale from 0 to 1;

- the level of possible impact on the industry in the event of the implementation of specific
opportunities or threats Kj on a scale from 1 to 5.
Quantitative assessments are summarized in a matrix by SWOT-analysis factors (Table 4).
Table 4. Assessment matrix by SWOT-analysis factors
on the development of
Impact of the event Kj

Strengths Weaknesses
Probability of the

the industry
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5
event, pj

Ass. Ai [on a scale 1-5] Ass. Ai [on a scale 1-5]

3 4 2 1 5 4 3 1 2 5

О1
Opportunities

0.8 3 7.2 9.6 4.8 2.4 12 3.2 7.2 2.4 4.8 12

О2 0.6 2 3.6 4.8 2.4 1.2 6 2.4 3.6 1.2 2.4 6
О3 0.5 4 6 8 4 2 10 2 6 2 4 10
О4 0.9 1 2.7 3.6 1.8 0.9 4.5 3.6 2.7 0.9 1.8 4.5
О5 0.7 5 10.5 14 7 3.5 17.5 2.8 10.5 3.5 7 17.5
Т1 0.9 3 8.1 10.8 5.4 2.7 13.5 3.6 8.1 2.7 5.4 13.5
Т2
Threats

0.7 4 8.4 11.2 5.6 2.8 14 2.8 8.4 2.8 5.6 14

Т3 0.4 1 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.8 2
Т4 0.7 5 10.5 14 7 3.5 17.5 2.8 10.5 3.5 7 17.5
Т5 0.7 2 4.2 5.6 2.8 1.4 7 2.8 4.2 1.4 2.8 7
By means of pairwise comparison, the cumulative influence (аij) of such combinations as SiOj, SiTj,
WiOj, WiTj was established on the basis of Ransis Likert's bipolar scale.
Three types of assessments were identified in the first case (+5 – a strong positive influence of the
considered combination on the development of the industry, +3 – a weak positive influence, 0 – no
influence) and two types of assessments in the second (-3 – a weak negative influence, -5 – a strong bad
influence).
The algorithm for calculating the SWOT-matrix is represented by the following formula:
Aij = pj * Кj * Aj * aij
where aij – assessment of the sectoral impact of various pairwise combinations of factors in the
implementation of selected opportunities and threats.
The generalized results of the SWOT-matrix are presented in Table 5.
Table 5. Resulting SWOT-matrix
Strengths Weaknesses
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 еAji W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 еAji
О1 21.6 28.8 24 7.2 60 141.6 -9.6 -21.6 -12 -24 -60 -127.2
О2
Opportunities

10.8 24 12 0 0 46.8 -12 -10.8 -6 -7.2 -30 -66

О3 18 0 12 0 50 80 0 -18 -6 -12 -30 -66
О4 0 0 5.4 2.7 22.5 30.6 -18 -13.5 0 -5.4 -13.5 -50.4
О5 52.5 70 35 0 52.5 210 -8.4 -52.5 10.5 21 -87.5 -116.9
еAji 102.9 122. 88.4 9.9 185 509 -48 - -13.5 -27.6 -221 -426.5
8 116.4
Т1 -24.3 -54 -16.2 0 -67.5 -162 -10.8 -24.3 -8.1 -16.2 -67.5 -126.9
Т2 0 - -28 0 -42 - -8.4 -42 -14 -16.8 -42 -123.2
Threats

33.6 103.6
Т3 -3.6 -4.8 -2.4 -1.2 -6 -18 -4.8 0 0 0 0 -4.8
Т4 -52.5 -42 0 0 -52.5 -147 -14 -52.5 -10.5 -35 0 -112
Т5 -21 - 8.4 0 0 -29.4 -14 -12.6 -7 -8.4 -21 -63

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AFE 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 937 (2021) 022104 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/937/2/022104

16.8
еAji -101.4 - -38.2 -1.2 -168 -460 -52 - -39.6 -76.4 -130.5 -429.9
151. 131.4
2

According to the digital total values of the SWOT-matrix, the industry's strengths are the investment
attractiveness of the industry due to the quick return on investment in production, and the diversification
of the assortment portfolio. And the monopolization of target markets by five large players, as well as
the disparity in prices for consumed resources and products sold are among the weaknesses.
State support and increased exports of meat products are seen as potential opportunities. At the same
time, the decline in the level of economic viability of the industry entities and the strengthening of the
sanctions regime against Russia cause an increase in threats and risks that generally reduce the efficiency
of the poultry farming operation, and, consequently, to a narrowing of the market potential of poultry
meat [10].
Thus, the information field obtained from the results of the SWOT-analysis makes it possible to
develop a strategy for expanding the market potential of this segment by combining the use of strengths
in the context of potential opportunities, taking into account the leveling of weaknesses and prevention
of potential threats.
The systematization of scientific research on the analysis of the poultry meat market and factors
affecting both the overall efficiency of the industry and the studied market segment made it possible to
identify the main directions for expanding the market potential of poultry meat, presented in Figure 6.

Chicken breeding

by leveling consumption by increasing the by increasing the

consumption rate production of halal and
between regions
according to the kosher brands
consumption
by increasing export recommendations of
volumes and expanding the WHO and the by organic products
sales markets leading countries
by increasing export
volumes and expanding
Other subsectors of poultry farming: goose breeding, duck sales markets
breeding, turkey breeding, pheasant breeding, quail breeding,
guinea fowl breeding, ostrich breeding by increasing the market
share within the country

Figure 6. Scheme for expanding the market potential of poultry meat

It is proposed to expand the market potential in the domestic market through structural shifts in the
segmentation of target markets, an increase in the share of processing, equalization of poultry meat
consumption between regions, an increase in the share of organic products, and in foreign markets – by
increasing export volumes [11]. The analytical material obtained from the analysis of the market
potential of poultry meat and the proposed scheme of the market potential of poultry meat served as the
basic platform for developing a forecast for the expansion of the assortment portfolio of the poultry meat
market for 2030 (Table 6).
The proposed vector for expanding the market potential of poultry meat will provide the country's
population with high-quality protein of animal origin and increase the volume of exports of these
products, which will help to increase the profitability and economic viability of the economic entities of
the industry.

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AFE 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 937 (2021) 022104 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/937/2/022104

Table 6. Forecast of expansion of the assortment portfolio of the poultry meat market for 2030
Organic Broiler Chicken Broiler Chicken 81.8%
(1%) Turkey 2.2%
Chilled
Duck 8.3%
Goose 0.8%
CARCASSES Guinea fowl 3.2%
27% Quail 3%
Frozen
Game and other
0.7%
bird
Breast, fillet, leg, quarter, Broiler Chicken 84.7%
drumstick, thigh, wings NATURAL SEMI- Turkey 10.7%
FINISHED PRODUCTS
Boneless meat of legs, Duck 1.8%
WITH AND WITHOUT
drumsticks, thighs Goose 2.4%
BREADING
Guinea fowl 0.3%
Barbecue, soup sets 48%
Quail 0.1%
Ready-made quick-frozen Broiler Chicken
81.9%
products
Pates Turkey 11.6%
Culinary products READY TO EAT Duck 1.2%
Canned food PRODUCTS Goose 3.9%
Smoked meats 25% Guinea fowl 0.4%
Sausages (boiled, semi-smoked, Quail 0.9%
raw smoked, dry-cured); Game and other
0.1%
gourmet products - ham, rolls) bird

4. Conclusions
In the process of scientific research of the market potential of poultry meat, niche segments were
identified both within the country, namely, from the standpoint of increasing the level of self-sufficiency
of individual regions, per capita consumption rates, increasing the share of processing, the share of
organic products, products from other types of poultry, and an increase in the volumes of exported
products in this segment. To implement these options, factors were identified that characterize the
strengths and weaknesses of the industry, threats and potential opportunities based on the SWOT-
analysis and taking into account the cumulative results in individual areas of research, a scheme for
expanding the market potential of poultry meat was proposed, and its forecast for 2030 was given, which
will expand the information space for making management decisions related to ensuring food security
in terms of poultry meat and its by-products.

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 937 (2021) 022104 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/937/2/022104

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