1.

US CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (YOY)

Oil inventories go through a

cycle every 3 to 4 years, and
increasing inventories indicate
weakening fundamentals for
crude oil. There is a negative
correlation between the year-
over-year growth rate of oil
inventories and the oil price.
2.US CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (DIVIDED BY 5-
YEAR AVG) VS. OIL PRICE

The blue line represents EIA

crude oil inventories divided by
their 5-year average. This
metric provides a more precise
reflection of inventory changes
relative to the long-term
average, without being skewed
by low base periods. Notably,
this metric exhibits a clear
negative correlation with oil
prices.
3.US CRUDE OIL SUPPLY & DEMAND

The EIA releases data on daily

petroleum product
consumption and field
production in its weekly
report. Crude oil demand
tends to fluctuate but
generally rises in late spring
to summer (mainly from
gasoline for transportation)
and late fall to winter
(primarily driven by heating
fuels).
4.GEOPOLITICAL RISK INDEX VS OIL PRICE

The Geopolitical Risk Index

(GPR) was compiled by US Fed
economists Dario Caldara and
Matteo Iacoviello. This index is
constructed based on the
number of newspaper articles
mentioning certain keywords
related to geopolitical tension.
The index spiked around WWI
and WWII, the Korean War, the
Cuban Missile Crisis, 9/11, and
the Iraq War, thus showing
correlation to periods of sharp
oil price fluctuations.
5.CRUDE OIL COT INDEX

COT Index = Large Non-

Commercial (Speculator) Net
Position - Large Commercial
(Hedger) Net Position

The COT index indicates the

bullish/bearish sentiment of
large traders. When the index
rises, it signifies that large
investors are bullish about the
crude oil market.
6. US DOLLAR INDEX VS OIL PRICE

Since oil futures prices are

denominated in US dollars,
there is usually a negative
correlation between the US
Dollar Index and oil prices.
7.US CRUDE OIL RIG COUNT VS OIL PRICE

Baker Hughes releases the

drilling rig count of active rigs
in the US on the last day of the
work week. Rig counts can
reflect drillers' expectations
regarding oil prices, as they
tend to rise when drillers
anticipate an increase in oil
prices.
 8.US OIL INVENTORIES VS.
REFINERY UTILIZATION RATE

The refinery utilization rate is

an indicator of future fuel
demand. When refineries are
optimistic about future
demand, they increase
capacity utilization, resulting
in a decline in oil inventories.
9. WOLRD PETRO & OTHER FUEL PRODUCTION
& CONSUMPTION ESTIMATES

This chart shows the current

and projected supply and
demand for petroleum and
other liquid fuels from the
monthly Short-Term Energy
Outlook (STEO) report by the
US Energy Information
Administration (EIA). The fuels
include crude oil, gas, diesel,
and aviation fuel. When supply
outgrows demand, oil prices
could fall.

Note: Figures in the chart are

in million barrels per day (bpd).
10.MM CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL INDEX

The MM Fundamental Index

(MMFI) for crude oil is an
integral index created by
MacroMicro. An upward
movement of the index
indicates positive fundamentals
for crude oil.

The components of this index

include US crude oil inventories
(YoY), the Crude Oil COT Index,
US gasoline and distillate fuel
inventories among others. The
weight of each component is
adjusted based on the latest
market conditions.
 Thank You !

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