18/10/07

Population Change

Where do we live?
New York was the largest city in 1970 with a population of 16.5
million.

By 2000, Mexico City was the largest city, it had a population of 31

million. This was double what New York was in 1970

In 1970, the majority of the largest cities were in developed countries.

By 2000, the majority were in developing countries.

Why are the developing countries’ populations growing at such

a fast rate?
Population increases by:
- People being born
- People immigrating

Population decreases by:

- People dying
- People emigrating

1. Birth rates-the number of children that are born every year, per
100 of population
2. Death rates-The number of people that die every year, per 1000
of population.
3. Immigration-people moving into an area
4. Emigration-people moving out of an area.

If the birth rate is more than the death rate you get a population
increase.
If the birth rate is less than the death rate you get a population
decrease.

In order for the population to grow either the inputs to the country are
to much for the outputs. Or the outputs are too small for the inputs.

This means that developing countries must have high birth rates and
high death rates.

Reasons for the high birth rate and death rate:

- Need a large family to work on the farm
 - There may be as many as 3000 patients per one doctor
- People work hard physical jobs in order to survive so their life
expectancy is shorter
- Not enough available contraception, or can’t afford to buy it.
- Children are more likely to die when young, so parents have to
have more children.
- A large family means that children can go out and earn money to
support the family when they’re old enough
- Lack of medication
- Poor diet and malnutrition
- Lack of clean water
- Children are regarded as a sign of virility
- Religious beliefs encourage large families (e.g. Muslims, Hindus)
- Little education about these things for normal people
- Women’s only role in life could be seen as to produce babies
- No pension scheme, therefore children may be needed to look
after parents when they are older.

Population growth is considered the biggest problem affecting

the world in the 21st Century
- Not enough housing
- 5 million children die each year from diarrhoea
- 800 million people are unable to read or write
- Famine
- Depletion of natural resources
- Faming marginal land in order to produce enough food
- Not enough jobs

There are some countries where the population is getting smaller.

This is generally in more developed parts of the world where they are
able to control their population growth more effectively.
France nad Sweden are two examples of countries whose populations
are decreasing. Reasons may include:
- Contraception such as the pull gives women more control and
choice
- Raising a family in a developed country is very expensive, so
parents choose to have fewer children
- Women are choosing to work rather than have a family.
- People enjoy their leisure time as they work hard, and so don’t
want children to interfere with this.

What problems does this cause?

 - A smaller population makes them more of a target for attack
from other countries. Their army will not be as strong and so it
will be ore difficult to defend themselves.
- There may be a shortage of workers to do all the jobs.
- A smaller population decreases their gene pool. For example,
they will be less likely than a larger country to have successful
scientists, athletes, artists, explorers, inventors and so on. All of
these qualities are genetically and so passed on from one
generation to another. The smaller the population, the lower the
probability.

Despite a projected world population increase of 1000 million in the

next 10 years, countries like France are encouraging their population
to grow.

Population density= number of people ÷ area = __per km2

The Demographic Transition Model

What is the Demographic Transition Model?

Demographic-the study of populations
Transition-to change of move
Model-an idea or theory to which reality is compared

The DTM is a model used in population studies to look at te changes in

the population over a certain time period. It investigates the
relationship between birth rates, death rates and overall population
change.

It was based on population changes in industrialised countries of

western Europe and North America and was proposed in the 1940’s/ It
suggests that all countries will pass through certain stages or
population cycles at some point.

Stage 1
Reasons for high death and birth rates as above.
Countries in stage 1: Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Rainforest Tribes

Stage 2
Birth rates remain high. Death rates begin to fall rapidly which leads to
a large population increase.
Reasons for a fall in death rates:
- Medical care improves, e.g. medicine, doctors, vaccinations,
hospitals etc
 - Sanitation improves with clean supply of water
- Quality and quantity of food production improves. Transport
improves, which means that food, medicines, doctors etc can be
moved about more freely

Countries in stage 2: Peru, Sri Lanka

Stage 3
Birth Rates fall rapidly, population growth slows.
Reasons for a fall in birth rates:
- Improved contraception and abortions available
- Children living longer so less need to have as many
- Parents would rather have material possessions (holidays, cars
etc) than large families
- Women working more so choose to have less children.

Countries in stage 3: China, Australia

Stage 4
Birth rates and death rates both remain low giving a steady population
growth.
Countries in stage 4: Canada, USA, Japan

Stage 5
What will happen in the future? Already, we are seeing a need to
include a stage 5 in the DTM with some countries, e.g. Germany and
Denmark facing declining population growth as their birth rates fall
below their death rates.

Population Pyramids
Also known as an “Age-Sex pyramid”. Population is divided into 5-year
age groups (e.g. 0-4, 5-9 etc) called COHORTS.
The amount of males and females in the population for each cohort is
then placed on a graph.
The vertical axis shows age cohorts.
The horizontal axis shows frequency.

The number of males and females in each of the age groups are then
added onto the graph, like a horizontal bar graph.

1. A wide base
This shows that there are lots of children being born, so there is a high
birthrate.
Problems
 - In 15-20 years time these children will be having children of
their own, thus expanding the population even more.
- More places at school will be needed.
- Hospitals will have an increased demand for maternity and child
care
- Each cohort decreases in size, this suggests that there is a high
death rate and a high infant mortality rate.

2. A wide top end

This shows that adults are living longer so the life expectancy is
increasing. Death rates must be low.
Problems
- An aging population means that there are more people of
retirement age.
- More retirement homes will be needed
- High cost to government to provide health care
- Greater need for services for the elderly, such as meals on
wheels, day centres etc

3. An expanding middle
The largest cohorts are represented by adults
Problems
- High unemployment as there are too many workers and not
enough jobs.
- These people are of child bearing age, which could mean the
population will expand even more.

4. A small top end

This shows that adults are not living a long time so the life
expectancy is low. Death rates must be high.
Problems
- Quality of life must be poor
- People are working physically all their lives with poor unbalanced
diets.
- Facilities for the elderly must be poor. There is probably no
pension system in this country so people have to continue
working in order to survive.

Dependency Ratio
Population pyramids can therefore be used to show what has
happened in the past, what is happening now and what is expected to
happen in the future. They are very useful tools for demographers to
use to help study the trends in population growth.
We can also use them to work out how much of the population is
dependent on the rest of the population for survival.

Groups 0-14 and 65+ are dependent.

Groups 15-64 are independent.

Dependency ratio= (Dependents ÷ independents)×100

Low dependency ratio means the dependents are having to support a

small proportion of the population.

High dependency ratios mean the dependents are having to support a

large proportion of the population.

Limitations to DTM
The model suggests that all countries will grow and develop as
European countries did. This is unlikely-some African countries may
never become industrialised
The timescale of the model is much more rapid in some countries. For
example Hong Kong and Malaysia have developed at a much faster
rate than the early industrialised countries
Population decline is occurring in some developed countries suggesting
the need for a stage 5 in the model.

Overpopulation, underpopulation and optimum population

Overpopulation exists when there are too many people in an area
relative to the amount of resources and the level of technology locally
available to maintain a high standard of living. It implies that, with no
change in the level of technology or natural resources, a reduction in a
population would result in a rise of living standards. The absolute
number or density of people need not be high if the level of technology
or natural resources is low. Overpopulation is characterised by low per
capita income, high unemployment and underemployment, and
outward migration.

Underpopulation occurs when there are too few people in an area to

use the resourcse efficiently for a given level of technology. In these
circumstances an increase in population would mean a more effective
use of resources and increased living standards for all of the people.
Underpopulation is characterised by high per capita incomes (but not
maximum incomes), low unemployment, and inward migration.
Optimum population is the theoretical population which, working with
all the available resources, will produce the highest standard of living
for the people of that area. This concept is dynamic-when technology
improves, new resources become available which mean that more
people can be supported. The population of an area changes over time
as demographic factors vary. These factors are:
- birth rates and fertility rates
- death rates, including infant mortality rates
- life expectancy and longevity.
- Rates of migration in and out of the area.

There are two approaches to over and under population and these are
the optimistic and the pessimistic approach.

The Optimistic Approach

Ester Boserup stated that environments have limits that restrict
activity. However, these limits can be altered by the use of appropriate
technologies which offer the possibility of resource development or
creation. People have an underlying freedom to make a difference to
their lives. Boserup stated that food resources are created by
population pressure. With demand, farm systems become more
intensive, for example by making use of shorter fallow periods. She
cited certain groups who reduced the fall period from 20 years, to
annual cropping with only 2-3 months fallow, to a system of multi-
cropping in which the same plot bore two or three crops in the same
year. The pressure to change comes from the demand for increased
food production. As the fallow period contracts, the farmer is
compelled to adopt new strategies to maintain yields. Thus necessity is
the mother of invention.

Evidence to Support this Approach

- The increasing intensity of shifting cultivation systems in various
parts of the world. These move from “slash and burn” systems in
areas of very low rural population density, to systems making
use of irrigation in areas of higher rural population density.
People are adapting to their changing circumstances by adopting
more intensive forms of agriculture.
- The Green Revolution-the widespread introduction of high-
yielding varieties of grains, along with the use of fertilisers and
pesticides, water control and mechanisation. The increased
yields from these processes allow more people to be fed. GM
crops.
More recently, other writers, notably Julian Simon and Bjorn Lomborg,
have contributed to these optimistic views. They refer to a number of
so-called environmental scares of recent years. In the 1960s it was
pesticides, carcinogens and the population explosion. In the 1970s
there was the oil crisis, the imminent failure of the world’s food supply
and th fear of nuclear power. In the 1980s the deserts were advancing,
acid rain was killing trees, the ozone layer was thinning and the
elephant was on the point of extinction. The 1990s brought