Benha University

Benha Faculty of Engineering

Mechanical Engineering Department
Operations Research (M1481)

ASSIGNMENT 5

Problem 1
A company collected monthly data for the orders through 10 months over their first year, you
are required to forecast the orders in November using 2-month and 3-month simple moving
average. Compare the results stating the best forecasting period to use while forecasting.

Month Orders
Jan 120
Feb 90
Mar 100
Apr 75
May 110
June 50
July 75
Aug 130
Sept 110
Oct 90
Nov -

Problem 2
An industrial company recorded their usage of electricity in the manufacturing firms. They have
recorded their energy costs for the past three years on a quarterly basis. You are asked to forecast
the next quarter using weighted moving average such that:
1. The weights are (0.2, 0.3, 0.5) where the larger weights for the most recent data.
2. The weights are (4, 6) where the larger weights for the most recent data.
Compare between the two results and choose the best weights.

Quarter Demand
1 27000
2 70000
3 41000
4 13000
5 30000
6 73000

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 7 48000
8 15000
9 34000
10 82000
11 51000
12 16000

Problem 3
Given the following weekly demand, forecast using 𝛼 = 0.2 and 𝛼 = 0.4. Mention the best
exponential smoothing coefficient for the data.

Week Demand
1 820
2 775
3 680
4 655
5 750
6 802
7 798
8 689
9 775
10 -

Problem 4
Given the amount of goods distributed per each week in a logistics center as below, what is
the linear regression model that can be used to predict the sales in the future?

Week Sales
1 150
2 157
3 162
4 166
5 177

Best Wishes for all,

Dr / Ibrahim Sabry

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