January, 13th 2023

HARNESSING DATA SCIENCE TO DRIVE EVIDENCE

BASED LEGISLATION IN PARLIAMENT

Boniface Okuda
Senior Statistician, Parliament of Uganda
 Presentation Outline

 Introduction

 All about Evidence

 Data Science in Parliament: Unlocking Transparency, Efficiency, and Insight

 Conclusion
INTRODUCTION
 In today's complex and fast-paced world, effective governance demands more than intuition and
experience. We are witnessing a paradigm shift: data is emerging as the new compass for navigating
complex challenges and driving positive change

 Policy decisions made within the halls of Parliament have far-reaching consequences, impacting the lives of
millions. Yet, too often, these decisions are made based on personal opinions, vested interests, and fleeting
political winds

 This is not to say that intuition and political awareness are irrelevant; they remain vital ingredients in the
complex process of policy-making

 However, in today's data-rich world, relying solely on these traditional methods without incorporating
objective evidence risks creating policies that are ineffective, inefficient, or even counterproductive

 In this presentation we argue that data science has the potential to revolutionize parliamentary decision-
making by injecting crucial objectivity and analytical rigor into the policy-making process.
What is Evidence?
 Evidence Refers to specific instances, statistics, and testimony, when they support a
claim in such a way as to cause decision makers to grant adherence to that claim

 We often think of evidence as scientific research. It can also be statistical data,

citizen voice, and evaluation evidence

 Evidence for policy making is any information that helps policymakers make
decisions and get results that are concrete, manageable and achievable
What is Evidence Informed Policy?

 Government often use evidence to inform its decision making by regularly and
methodically collecting data and investing in generating data about the merits,
design and implementation of its policies

 They need data and evidence to make decisions and implement programs that
effectively, equitably, and justly allocate scarce resources and meet people’s
social and economic needs

 Evidence informed Legislation seeks to increase the role of empirical data and
insights in policy decisions
 What is Evidence Informed Policy? Cont……
 Evidence informed Policy is that which has considered a broad range of research
evidence; evidence from citizens and other stakeholders; and evidence from practice
and policy implementation, as part of a process that considers other factors such as
political realities and current public debates

 Evidence-Informed policymaking has two goals: to use what we already know from
program evaluation to make policy decisions and to build more knowledge to better
inform future decisions

 In the real world, policy is developed in a fluid environment, and is subject to competing
vested and political interests, and can be driven by pressure to act quickly to solve
headline-grabbing problems
Why do we need Evidence in the policy process?
Evidence informed policy helps policymakers and providers of services to make decisions that are
informed by the best available evidence from research and evaluation and other sources. This
includes decisions about:

 Policy options that might be considered to address the problem

 Effective and ineffective interventions to solve the problem
 The likely positive and negative consequences of the proposed policy option;
 Effective and ineffective modes of delivery and implementation;
 The resources that will be required to implement the policy;
 the costs and benefits of the proposed policy, and on whom these costs and benefits will fall;
and
 the sustainability of the policy economically, socially and environmentally.
Types of Evidence
There are many types of Evidence produced and used by different stakeholders in the policy
development process;

1) Data: information collected to be examined and used. Can be qualitative (non-numeric,

observed and recorded, It seeks to answer ‘who, which, what, when, where and why? ) and, Or
Quantitative data (numerical data which can be measurable, analysis is done by means of
statistical methods. It answers ‘how many’, ‘to what extent’ or ‘how much’ )

2) Research Evidence: That which has undergone a systematic process of inquiry that entails
collection of data; documentation of critical information; and analysis and interpretation of that
data/information, in accordance with suitable methodologies set by specific professional fields and
academic discipline
Types of Evidence….

3) Practice informed Evidence: knowledge gained from experience of implementing

policy and practice. it is held by individuals and organizations with long histories of
tackling an issue, and has its roots in work experience and an understanding of what
works and what does not in specific contexts

4) Citizen Evidence: this is held by citizens, both individually and collectively, drawing on
their daily lives. It is knowledge of a place, a culture, people and their challenges,
gained through direct experience
Choosing the right Evidence

 Quality/accuracy: Is the evidence correctly describing what it purports to do? if arithmetical (are
the numbers added up correctly?), statistical (were the cause and effect parameter correctly
specified?)

 Credibility: Credible evidence relies on a strong and clear line of argument; tried and tested
analytical methods; analytical rigor throughout the processes of data collection and analysis; and
on clear presentation of the conclusions

 Relevance: Is it timely, topical and has policy implications. The type of evidence one refers to
matters greatly according to the audience it is being presented to and the likely impact.

 Practicalities: It relates to the extent to which the evidence is accessible to policymakers; whether
policymakers have access to it in a useful form and therefore the ease with which it can be
translated into policy
Enhancing the use of Evidence in Policy
 To change the status quo towards Evidence informed Policy within government
departments, policymakers need to understand the value of evidence, become
more informed as to what research is available, know how to gain access to it and be
able to critically appraise it

 The relationship will only work if researchers and policymakers work more closely
together to ensure that there is an agreement between policymakers and
researchers, and within the research community, as to what constitutes evidence
Enhancing the use of Evidence in Policy….
 Increasing the pull for evidence;
 Require the publication of the evidence base for policy decisions
 Submit government analysis (such as forecasting models) to external expert scrutiny
 Provide open access to information – leading to more informed citizens and pressure
groups

 Facilitating better evidence use;

 Encourage better collaboration across internal analytical services (e.g. researchers,
statisticians and economists)
 Integrate analytical staff at all stages of the policy development process
 Cast external researchers more as partners than as contractors
 Train staff in evidence use
Data Science in Parliament: Unlocking Transparency, Efficiency, and
Insight
 The Parliament of Uganda is an information intensive and information demanding institution. All
Parliaments around the world need evidence to carry out its core functions of;
 Legislation
 Representation
 Oversight
 Resource allocation

 Therefore, acquiring, organizing, managing, distributing and preserving information is

fundamental to its constitutional mandate.

 Parliament creates and requires information from many external sources including the
government, the judiciary, civil society, experts, the media, academicians, international
organizations and other legislative bodies and citizens.
The Information support system - POU
 Library (or libraries): These serve both MPs and
parliamentary staff and respond to requests for information
and assists users to find relevant evidence

 The Research department This responds to research requests

from individual MPs as well as committees. Each staff of the
research department is attached to at least one committee of
Parliament. They provide issue briefs, policy briefs, research
and offer technical guidance to the committees

 Hansard: As the official parliamentary record of deliberations,

Hansard is often used by MPs for debates but also published
publicly for transparency and accountability to citizens

 ICT: This often plays a key role in storing, referencing and

sharing information in digital formats. This is of particular
relevance as many parliaments begin to move away from
paper-based systems and are increasingly exploring, for
example, the use of iPads for MPs, paperless information
request and delivery systems
What exactly is Data science

What do you imagine when someone says he/she is a data scientist? What exactly is data
science?
• Person doing AI, applying algorithms, building robots and analysing data to extract
insights

 The 21st century is defined by data. Every click, swipe, purchase, and interaction generates a
digital trace, leaving behind a vast ocean of information waiting to be explored.

 Data science emerges as the key to navigating and transforming this raw input into powerful
insights that shape our world

 In reality the profile of a data scientist requires skill of a person whose expertise expands across
significant number of different areas

 It is a paradigm shift where we used to make decisions basing on intuitions and guess work, now
we can move to data driven decisions
Demystifying Data Science: A Powerful Ally for Parliament

 Imagine a world where parliaments can predict the impact of proposed laws before they're
enacted, where constituent concerns are understood and addressed with laser precision, and
where legislative efficiency takes a quantum leap forward

 This is the domain of data science: a potent blend of statistical analysis, computer science, and
domain expertise, ready to revolutionize the way our democratic institutions operate.

 Data science therefore opens up a universe of possibilities for parliaments:

 Informed Policy making: Imagine analyzing data to pinpoint the root causes of poverty,
predict the economic impact of a new trade deal, or assess the effectiveness of
healthcare interventions. Data-driven insights can guide legislators towards crafting
evidence-based policies that truly address the needs of the people.
Demystifying Data Science: A Powerful Ally for Parliament…

 Enhanced Transparency and Accountability: Data can serve as a powerful tool for
accountability. We can analyze voting patterns, track how resources are allocated, and
measure the impact of policies on different demographics. This newfound transparency
fosters trust and empowers citizens to hold their representatives accountable.

 Streamlined Legislative Processes: Imagine committees using data analysis to optimize

their agendas, prioritize issues, and identify relevant experts for testimony. Data science
can also automate tedious tasks, freeing up valuable time for legislators to focus on
substantive discussions and debates.
Demystifying Data Science: A Powerful Ally for Parliament…

 Citizen-Centric Approach: Going beyond opinion polls, data science can reveal the
concerns, priorities, and aspirations of diverse populations. This allows parliaments to tailor
their policies and services to specific demographics, ensuring a more equitable and
responsive governance system.

 Predictive Power and Risk Mitigation: By analyzing patterns in past events and current
trends, data science can help anticipate future challenges, such as potential economic
downturns or public health outbreaks. This foresight allows parliaments to proactively
develop mitigation strategies and prevent crises before they occur.
 Unveiling the Diverse Data Landscape in Parliament
 When you think of Parliament, dusty chambers and eloquent debates might come to mind. But
beneath the surface lies a hidden world of gigantic data from the activities of elected officials and
engaged citizens.

Let's delve into the diverse types of data that Parliaments generate and explore their potential:
1. Legislative Data:

 Voting Records: Every vote cast by each member on bills, amendments, and motions creates a
detailed timeline of their positions and allegiances.

 Bills and Legislation: From draft stages to enacted laws, the entire legislative journey leaves
behind a trail of documents, amendments, and debates, revealing the evolution of each policy.

 Committee Reports: Committees meticulously analyze issues, propose solutions, and draft reports
– valuable sources of expert opinions and evidence-based recommendations.
Unveiling the Diverse Data Landscape in Parliament
2. Procedural Data:
 Transcripts of Plenary Sessions: Every word spoken during debates, statements, and questions forms a
comprehensive record of parliamentary discourse and political dynamics.

 Committee Meeting Minutes: Detailed minutes document discussion topics, decisions made, and
witnesses heard, offering insights into the inner workings of parliamentary committees.

3. Public Engagement Data:

 Public Submissions and Petitions: Citizens' voices come alive through written submissions, petitions, and
responses to consultations, revealing public concerns, priorities, and perspectives on policy issues.
 Social Media Interactions: Tweets, comments, and online discussions offer real-time feedback, gauge
public sentiment, and track the impact of parliamentary activities on the wider community.
 Surveys and Public Opinion Polls: Formal surveys and polls provide quantitative data on public attitudes
towards specific policies or institutions, informing Parliament's responsiveness to citizen needs.
 Unveiling the Diverse Data Landscape in Parliament
4. Administrative Data:

 Member Profiles and Biographies: Information about members' backgrounds, expertise, and committee
memberships can be analyzed to understand potential biases, expertise gaps, and the overall composition
of the Parliament.

 Parliamentary Budget and Expenses: Financial data on allocations, expenditures, and resource utilization
provide insights into the efficiency and transparency of parliamentary operations.

 Staff Data and Expertise: The skills and specializations of parliamentary staff hold valuable information on the
institutional capacity and knowledge base available to legislators.

This is just a glimpse into the wealth of data generated by Parliaments. By harnessing these diverse sources, we
can unlock a world of possibilities for informed decision-making, citizen engagement, and a more effective
and responsive democracy. Remember, this is a starting point. You can expand on each category with specific
examples from your chosen Parliament or region, further enriching your presentation.
Practical application of data science in Parliament
 Parliamentary data offers a rich tapestry for various kinds of analyses, providing insights
into political dynamics, legislative effectiveness, and public engagement. Here are
some examples with specific analytical models:

1. Sentiment Analysis of House Debates, social media interactions etc:

 Analyze speech transcripts to gauge sentiment towards policies, opponents, or
public concerns. Identify shifts in sentiment over time or during specific events.

 Analyze public sentiment and engagement with parliamentary activities on social

media platforms like Twitter.
Practical application of data science in Parliament
So how do we perform such sentiment analysis?
 Data science provides a number of analytical methods to perform sentiment analysis:
Naive Bayes: The naive bayes classifier algorithm is an algorithm used to find the highest probability value
for classifying test data in the most appropriate category

 This is a supervised learning technique that involves predicting the class of an observation given a
set of features. it is considered as one of the simplest and most powerful machine learning
algorithms

 It has been successfully used in various applications such as spam filtering, text classification,
sentiment analysis, and recommendation systems

 Naive Bayes makes a key assumption: features are independent of each other, given the
sentiment. This means, for example, the presence of the word "happy" in a sentence doesn't
influence the probability of the word "sad" appearing, provided you know the overall sentiment
EXAMPLE TASKS
 Example task 1: Track the evolving sentiment in a debate on the anti homosexuality Act 2023,
studying how arguments and data influence opinions. (source of data: Hansards, Social
media discussions)

 Example task 2: Monitor public reaction to a budget announcement and measure its
effectiveness in addressing public concerns (source of data: social media discussions).

 Example task 3: Is it possible to develop a model that will enable us analyse the trends in the
quality of debates since the first Parliament to date

 Often times there has been concerns that the quality of debate on the floor of
Parliament has declined. How has this been measured? Is there empirical evidence
or just intuitions.
 Practical application of data science in Parliament….

2. Predictive analysis of legislative outcomes:

 Based on past voting patterns, party affiliations, and issue characteristics, we can
predict the likelihood of specific bills passing or amendments being successful
HOW?
 We can apply roll call analysis by specifically examining how legislators vote on
various issues.

 To understand this complex landscape, we can use spatial models

 Spatial models are powerful tools for political scientists to analyze how politicians vote
on various issues.
Spatial models cont…
 These models represent politicians and their stances on issues as points in a multi-
dimensional space, where each dimension represents a key policy issue. By analyzing the
positions of politicians and their voting behavior, researchers can gain valuable insights into:

• Ideological groupings: Identifying clusters of politicians with similar voting patterns,

revealing ideological factions within legislatures.

• Strategic positioning: Understanding how politicians adjust their positions to appeal

to voters or compete with rivals.

• Policy dynamics: Predicting how changes in policy proposals or voter preferences

might influence politicians' voting behavior.
Spatial models cont…
 In practice, there a number of spatial models that can be applied to understand votting
patterns of politicians. These include:

 Spatial Regression Models: These models combine traditional regression analysis with

spatial considerations.

 They allow researchers to examine how factors like party affiliation, district
characteristics, and public opinion influence politicians' voting behavior, while
accounting for the spatial dependence between districts.

Example task: A study on Sugar regulations (the Sugar amendment bill 2023) in
Uganda can utilize a spatial regression model to analyze how sugar production in a
legislator's constituency affects their voting behavior on sugar regulations
Practical application of data science in Parliament…
Further reading for you
3. Optimizing resource allocations

 Limited resources demand responsible budgeting. Data science can help prioritize investments by analyzing the
cost-effectiveness of different policy options.

 It can identify areas where funds are underutilized and pinpoint programs yielding the highest return on
investment. This allows for efficient allocation of resources, maximizing the impact of every dollar spent.

4. Time series analysis of legislative activities

 We can analyze the number of bills introduced, passed, or amended over time to identify patterns or changes in
legislative productivity
 Examine how voting patterns on specific issues or legislation evolve over time, potentially revealing shifts in party
alignments or public opinion
 Assess the impact of policy changes implemented by Parliament on various economic, social, or environmental
indicators over time
 Model the time it takes for bills to pass through different stages of the legislative process to identify bottlenecks or
inefficiencies.
CONCLUSION
 It is important to note that the human factor is the most important element in deriving insights
from DATA. And this is What makes a data scientist irreplaceable

 The key to turning data into insights lies in what we can do that machines can not do and that
is CUROSITY, EMPATHY, IMAGINATION, CREATIVITY, COMMUNICATION and LEADERSHIP

 The most important skill of a data scientist is CUROSITY and this helps you to ask the right
questions to data, understand human issues, imagine impossibilities, create and articulate
solutions, convey insights with the right visuals and make them actionable

 These are key elements that turn data into something meaningful and this is set of skills that no
AI can match. AT LEAST NOT YET

 And this is why I believe AI is not here to replace any one.

THANK YOU