EMERGING AND

ACTUAL
GEOPOLITICAL
HOTSPOT
CHINA - PAPER TIGER
Economic Surge Geographical Isolation
China's economy has grown China is effectively isolated from
dramatically in the past 30 years. the rest of the world.
Slower growth in China could lead to Non-aggressive and Intermittent
significant social and political Global Involvement
issues. Engages in trade using overland
Geopolitical Perspective routes (Silk Road) and eastern
China's geography makes it less ports.
likely to be an active fault line.
Challenges the perception of China's Coastal regions preferred close ties, and
economy being as robust as it even domination, by Europeans.
appears.
Chaos Period (Mid-19th Century to 1949)
Characterized by chaos and instability.
Initiated in the mid-19th century, lasting until the Communist takeover in 1949.
Prediction
China’s economic surge over the past 30 years may face challenges potentially
leading to significant social and political issues. Despite its growth, China's
geopolitical perspective, geographic isolation, and historical patterns of non-
aggressive global involvement hint at complexities that could impact its future
trajectory. The historical chaos period and Mao's revolutionary attempts shaped
China's post-1949 period until Mao's death, creating a backdrop for
understanding its current dynamics.

CHINA’S GAMBLE
Post-Mao Leadership Transition
Mao's death prompted successors
to pursue the historic Chinese
dream.
Acknowledgment of Economic
Vulnerability
Deng saw China's economic
potential in ending isolation. Coastal
cities, like Shanghai, thrived in
global trade, maintaining Beijing's
control. However, China now
grapples with significant bad debts,
estimated at $600-900 billion,
resembling Japan's impact on the
U.S. in the 1980s. Despite
extraordinary growth, China faces
challenges with its unique system,
emphasizing social relations over
economic discipline and reaching
structural limits.

Page 1 | Nov 2023

 Emerging and actual geopolitical Hotspot Page 2 | Nov 2023

China Gamble Prediction

After Mao's death, Deng
acknowledged China's
economic challenges.
Coastal areas thrived
through global trade, but
Beijing kept control. Despite
seeming capitalist, China
hides issues like significant
bad debts. Similar to
Japan's history, China faces
limits after impressive
growth. This suggests a
complicated future,
balancing prosperity with
underlying problems.

China’s Political Crisis

Why is China's problem
political?
• China's political challenge
arises as past unity through
ideology weakens. Loyalty,
once bought or coerced, now
leans heavily on coercion due
to economic downturn.
- Why was there a protest in Pressure from the
Hong Kong? impoverished class to tax the
So why was there a protest
China tried to manipulate their coast led to government
in Hong Kong if China let
democratic election by trying weakening and loss of control.
them be highly
to make the next leader a pro-
autonomous?
china candidate. KMT (Nationalist) and CCP
China was stable for ten years,
Example: two systems one (Communist)
but now they're quickly building
country - CCP led by Mao Zedong
things like the bridge
Border between China and - KMT led by Chiang Kai-shek
connecting Hong Kong, Macau,
Hong Kong This contributes to China
and mainland China.
Why was Beijing caught in having a weak government.
the middle of a political They briefly united to resist
- Why does China want Hong
crisis? the 50-year Japanese
Kong?
- Interior regions = impoverish occupation in Taiwan.
Hongkong was China’s most
- Coastal regions = rich However, unity faltered
economically productive city.
because of trading with when Chiang Kai-Shek
Hong Kong is a quarter the size
Europeans moved to Taiwan,
of China’s entire economy
European trading enriched establishing it as the
before the handover. But today,
coastal areas like Shanghai, Republic of China (ROC),
from making up to 27% of
causing political instability. resulting in one China with
Chinese GDP down to 3%.
two distinct governments.

9
 Emerging and actual geopolitical Hotspot Page 3 | 4 Nov 2023

PRC vs. ROC (One China Policy)

- US, Taiwan, and China’s

relationships
So what’s the role of the US in
the fight for legitimacy and
international recognition
between China and Taiwan?
Mao wanted to fight Taiwan,
but the Korean War made the
U.S. ally with Taiwan. Mao had to
drop plans for Taiwan. Initially,
the Republic of China (ROC)
had a UN Security Council seat
and Western recognition as the
sole Chinese government.
However, as the People's
Republic of China (PRC) gained
importance during the Cold
War, ROC's influence faded.
Though the U.S. supports
Taiwan against threats, China's
attempt at using economic ties
for political unity didn't
succeed.
Future Paths for China
1. To grow at astronomical
Japanese Variant
“To the extent that China will
rates indefinitely. China and Japan relationship
be involved with foreign
2. Recentralization of China. Why Japan contributed to
powers, it will be defending
3. China fragments along the political crisis of
itself against encroachment
regional lines, and the China?
rather than projecting its own
central government Japan and China are close
power.”
weakens. neighbors with significant - E.g., One Belt Initiative
economic and cultural ties. What predictions came true
Friedman predicted Japan and not?
would have Chinese allies for Not invading Taiwan.
favorable investments. Weak military and naval
Initially improved due to forces.
China-US reconciliation and a 3 future paths.
pro-China Japanese Prime Divided among competing
Minister, relations worsened regional leaders.
with the Soviet Union's Internal stresses on the
collapse, increasing Sino-US Chinese economy.
tensions, China's Not going to be involved
assertiveness, and growing with foreign powers
nationalism.

9
 Emerging and actual geopolitical Hotspot Volume 3, Issue 4 Nov 2022

RUSSIA
REMATCH
Historical Patterns
Geopolitical issues, when not
resolved in a single war, tend to
persist and may result in repeated
conflicts. The inadequacy of a
singular military engagement in
addressing complex underlying
problems, leads to the recurrence
of wars over time. And even in the
absence of active warfare, tension
and confrontation endure,
showcasing the lasting impact of
unresolved geopolitical issues
which are deeply rooted in
intricate geopolitical realities that
defy easy resolution putting
emphasis on the notion that major
conflicts are not superficial but are
sustained by persistent and
complex underlying issues, making
them resistant to quick and easy
solutions, resulting to it remaining
unresolved.
Russia’s Conflict with and in
Europe Defining its Geopolitical
Position

Russia's strategic location in the

eastern portion of the continent
has historically contributed to its
recurring disputes with Europe.
Russia has fought wars with other
European nations throughout
history:
Russia's significant
involvement in the Napoleonic
Wars during the early 19th
century (1803–1815)
demonstrated its geopolitical
significance in relation to other
European countries.
Russia had a crucial role in both
World Wars I and II, with the
Eastern Front being vital to the
overall battle.
World War I (1914–1918): Another strong episode of
Russia was one of the major antagonism between Russia
Allied Powers. The conflict and Western Europe,
began with Russia mobilizing its especially the United States
forces to support Serbia and its NATO allies, was
highlighted by the Cold War
against Austria-Hungary.
which lasted for much of the
World War II (1939–1945):
After the German invasion in 20th century.
June 1941, Russia—which had
initially sided with Nazi
Germany under the terms of
the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact—
became a key Allied Movers
Power in the Second World
War.

9
 Emerging and actual geopolitical Hotspot Page 3 | 4 Nov 2023

These wars were not just purely

military; they also had a great
deal to do with Russia's
complex geopolitical position
and ties to the rest of Europe.
The historical repetition of
encounters demonstrates the
ongoing difficulties and
intricacies in relations between
Russia and Europe, which are
molded by geopolitical forces
that go beyond specific
hostilities.
Russia has long been a
tempting target for
European nations seeking to
increase their riches and
territory due to its strategic
strengths, which include
vast landmass and an
abundance of natural
resources.

Russian Geopolitical Question

The core question concerns Russian Dynamics The boundary between

Russia's status as a unified Russia's geographic Turkey and the Soviet Union
nation-state, with an emphasis challenges, especially in the crossed the Caucasus,
on indicating its borders and northwest where there are encircling independent
forming alliances with other no natural barriers, are Armenia, Georgia, and
nations. strongly linked to its Azerbaijan.
strategic vulnerabilities. Given Chechnya's vital
Despite having authority over defensive location, the
Moldova, Belarus, and Russians are loath to make
Ukraine, the north lacks concessions on the
substantial natural borders. territory.
Georgia is considered to be
The Caucasus has marked a more stable location, thus
the division between Turkish Russia would rather remain
and Russian dominance, anchored there.
often turning into a There are still heated
flashpoint between the two tensions in the Caucasus,
empires. This geopolitical particularly between
significance persisted during Armenia and Turkey over
the Cold War. historical charges of
genocide.

9
 Emerging and actual geopolitical Hotspot Volume 3, Issue 4 Nov 2022

RUSSIA
CENTRAL ASIA
Post-soviet destabilization
After the fall of the Soviet
Union, Central Asia faced
destabilization, becoming an
area of relative indifference to
Russia.
Political instability: Some
Central Asian countries have
faced challenges in maintaining
political stability, with concerns
about authoritarian rule, human
rights abuses, and limited
political freedoms.
Extremism:: Central Asia is
home to diverse ethnic and
religious groups. Tensions and
issues related to inter-ethnic
relations, particularly in multi-
ethnic countries, are observed.
The rise of radicalization and
concerns about religious
extremism have been on the
agenda.
Economic implications: China
has increased its economic
presence in Central Asia,
leading to both opportunities
and concerns about economic
dependence and sovereignty. US request for assistance:
This also includes labor presence, anticipating it to
The U.S. requested Russian be short-lived.
migration that has been a
help with the Northern Russian Strategies to Limit U.S.
significant phenomenon, with
people from Central Asian Alliance in Afghanistan, a Influence
countries seeking work abroad, group Russia had sponsored Political Manipulation:
particularly in Russia. and effectively controlled. Russia strategically
with people from Central Asian Russia’s agreement to manipulated political
countries seeking work abroad, American military presence: dynamics by cultivating
particularly in Russia. Seeking bases for its military
Geopolitical shift after 9/11
closer ties with leaders
operations, the U.S. sought aligned with Russian
US invasion of Afghanistan: The
and received permission interests, supporting
geopolitical dynamics in Central
from Central Asian sympathetic regimes, and
Asia changed after the terrorist
attacks on September 11, 2001. countries. leveraging historical and
The United States, needing U.S. influence in Central Asia cultural connections.
support for the invasion of Initially, Russia accepted a
Afghanistan, sought Russian temporary American military
assistance.
9
 Emerging and actual geopolitical Hotspot Page 3 | 4 Nov 2023

1. Andijan Massacre: After the Andijan

massacre in Uzbekistan (2005), where the
government brutally suppressed protests,
Russia supported the Uzbek leadership,
consolidating its influence.
Establishment of Alliances
2. Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO): Russia-led military alliance involving
Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, enhancing
Russia's regional influence.
3. Eurasian Economic Union (EEU): Initiated by
Russia, this economic integration project
includes countries like Kazakhstan and
Kyrgyzstan, strengthening economic ties
and increasing Russia's influence.

Energy Cooperation and Control: Russia

maintains significant control over Central
Asia's energy resources and infrastructure,
including major oil and gas pipelines,
enabling influence over energy policies and
economic leverage. Despite China's growing economic
Cultural Ties: Shared historical, cultural, and
influence and continued U.S. involvement,
linguistic ties, especially through Turkic
the emphasis lies on China and Russia's
heritage, contribute to Russia's influence in
Central Asian countries. coordination rather than competition in
Security Cooperation: Russia collaborates Central Asia. Interdependence suggests
with Central Asian nations on security and mutual benefits from collaboration.
counterterrorism efforts, addressing With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Central
common challenges in the region Asian governments refrained from openly
Prediction
supporting Moscow, possibly to navigate
Russia will reassert its dominance over
Central Asia. mixed reactions within their societies.
What really happened? Central Asian leaders prioritized domestic
Russia successfully reestablished its legitimacy, avoiding open alignment with
influence in Central Asia through Russia's military actions to prevent
multifaceted strategies, including political, negative repercussions from their
economic, military, and cultural factors.
populations.
Political scientist Francis Fukuyama notes
that a weakened Russia due to losses in
Ukraine could offer Central Asian countries
more opportunities to set independent
policies. Conversely, the fall of Ukraine to
Russian forces might pose a threat to
Kazakhstan, as some Moscow
ultranationalists claim parts of northern
Kazakhstan should be Russian.

9
 Emerging and actual geopolitical Hotspot

RUSSIA
EUROPEAN THEATER
ALLIED NATIONS BY THE FORMER NATO and Russia has a long
SOVIET UNOIN: history with their ideological
Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia,
differences. It is important to
Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Poland,
emphasize that in the POV of
Slovakia, Hungar, Romania,
Bulgaria.
Russia their actions are
“justified” as a means of
NOTE: Most of these countries are defense mechanism to its
not in good terms with Russia in disadvantages.
contemporary workd. WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW?
Baltic states became enemy
RUSSIA AT PANIC
with Russia
Needs to gain Ukraine and RUSSIAN EFFORTS TO
Belarus for its military NEUTRALIZE THE BALTIC The USA continues to
capability in regards to their STATES support Poland and the
territorial position to make it Fund pro-Russia Movements Baltic states
more favorable to their Cut off the supply chain of Russia investment on
interest. natural gas technological warfare
Military pressure Economic crisi in Russia
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UKRAINE There are 15 post-Soviet
AND BELARUS
NOTE: Baltic states are states in total
Ukraine
dependent on Russian oil Russia-Ukraine war…
NATO threat to Russia
Almkst became part of NATO

Belarus
Less Reformed; remained
authoritarian
No possibility to join NATO

RUSSIA AND THE BALTIC STATES

Once part of the Societ Union
but became independent after
its collapse
Doesn’t trust Russia
Part of NATO
NEUTRALIZATION OF THE BALTIC
STATES
Russia made efforts just to ensure
it upholds its interest and control
the Baltic states to be neutral.
However, Baltic states that are
part of NATO and close to USA is
just an ingredient for disaster in
Russia’s favor,
BEYOND THE BORDERS: WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS?
The war in Ukraine is anticipated to result in a reconfiguration of
Europe
The conflict in Ukraine is poised to strengthen the strategic
partnership between Russia and China
Russia's infringement upon Ukraine's sovereignty marks the
conclusion of the post-Cold War era.
Russia’s actions hasten the division of the world into two
adversarial and competitive factions.
Europe will be compelled to determine its position in the evolving
global order

9
 Emerging and actual geopolitical Hotspot Volume 3, Issue 4 Nov 2022

AMERICA
ECONOMIC CRISIS

American Economic Cycles

and Coming Crisis
Theory: US has 50-year
economic cycles with crisis
→ new era
Each era gets overextended
and fails, sparking crisis
Current suburbanization era
may be ending soon
Impending 2020s Crisis
Retiring boomers + lower
births → demographic Global Competition for The Mexico Factor
decline Immigrants Immigration from Mexico
Will strain entitlements, Many nations face could rise further
reduce consumer spending demographic challenges Managing associated
Could spur high inflation in US may need to improve sovereignty issues very
coming years visa terms to compete for challenging
2028/2032 Election Cycle talent
Traditional policies may fail But new immigrant Cyclical Pattern
to resolve the crisis workforce systems difficult Expanded immigration may
Proposal: Increase to construct enable post-crisis growth
immigration to grow Cultural Changes But historically, today’s
workforce, taxes Immigration surge would solutions become
Needed to fund boomer diversify culture rapidly tomorrow’s crises
retirements Enriches society but could
worsen “brain drain”