SEC – English 5TH Semester It therefore seems likely that the most important aspect of creating emotional
appeal is that you, the writer, care about your characters and what happens to
Q. Define creative writing. What are the features of creative writing?
Ans. Creative writing is loosely defined as more or less any form of original writing:
anything that involves creativity and ‘making things up’. It can therefore be defined
simply as writing that falls outside the usual bounds of journalistic, academic,
technical or professional writing.
Creative writing is generally considered to encompass all fiction writing, as well as
poetry, and many people also include writing plays and screenplays.
The focus of creative writing is generally, but not invariably, on the narrative arc
and character development. It is therefore very different from writing such as
journalistic writing, which may aim to tell stories, but is focused on facts.
Elements of Creative Writing
There are many different forms of creative writing, and they all have their own
features. However, many types of creative writing also share some common
features. These include:
1. A strong plot or narrative arc
The plot, also known as the ‘narrative arc’, is the unique ‘story’ of your writing. It
describes what happens to your characters.
It is fair to say that this is a feature of all creative writing, and is effectively what
distinguishes it from other forms of writing. Without a story, you are simply
providing facts. There is a place for that—but it is not creative writing.
A plot does not have to cover a long period of time, or even have a clear ending. If
you consider many short stories, they are very much a snapshot in time. You enter
the characters’ lives at a particular point, and often leave them shortly afterwards.
You do not necessarily know what happens next. Some of the most frightening
stories are those where your imagination fills in the gaps (a good example of this is
Daphne Du Maurier’s short story The Birds, later made into a film by Alfred
Hitchcock).
2. Character development
The second feature of creative writing is the creation of characters, and their
development over the course of the writing.
In this context, ‘development’ can describe either changes in the character
themselves, or a change in the reader’s understanding of the character.
For example, in Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol, Ebenezer Scrooge, the main
character, undergoes an epiphany in the course of the book, and his character
completely changes.
However, by contrast, in Daphne Du Maurier’s Rebecca, the unnamed heroine—
and by extension, the reader—learns more and more about her husband’s former
wife over the course of the book and comes to appreciate that all is not what it
seemed on the surface.
3. A characteristic use of language
One of the features that distinguishes creative writing is the wide diversity of
language use.
Creative writers often, if not always, provide visual descriptions of locations and
people. This is because their readers need to be able to imagine the characters and
scenes—and providing more descriptions makes this process easier.
Writers like J.R.R. Tolkien spent years creating imaginary worlds. They wanted their
readers to share their vision of these worlds in as much detail as possible.
Creative writing also often features a more vivid use of language. Metaphors,
similes, adjectives and adverbs abound. Unlike business writing, it is not a matter
of ‘more concise often equals better’. In creative writing, more can definitely be
more.
4. An underlying theme or message
Some people suggest that every piece of creative writing has an underlying theme
or message.
It is certainly true that there can be some very strong underlying themes, especially
in certain types of writing. For example, many fantasy novels are very much ‘good
vs. evil’, usually with a strong undertone of ‘coming of age’ of characters. Journeys
within books are often metaphors for a character’s own journey of development,
with a sense of ‘homecoming’ or ‘journey’s end’ towards the end of the story. This
idea of an underlying theme is interesting, because it is arguable that it is not
always intentional.
In other words, it is not clear whether writers sit down and decide on this
underlying theme, or whether it develops with the writing. It certainly does not
seem to be necessary to have a clear ‘message’ in mind in writing—and certainly
not a moral one. However, there is also something intensely human about wanting
to draw lessons from experience.
The real question is: does the writer do this, or is this part of what happens during
the reading process?
5. An emotional appeal
Creative writing has to appeal to our emotions. Otherwise, we might as well read
non-fiction.
Writers have to create this emotional appeal, but it is often part of the other
aspects of a piece of creative writing. For example, writers develop strong
characters, with an appealing story arc. Readers empathise with those characters,
and care what happens to them. If the writer does not create interesting
characters, the reader loses interest.
them. Developing Creative Writing Skills
Creative writing is a skill like any other form of writing. It therefore follows that you
can develop that skill.
However, it can be much harder to do that than with many other forms of writing.
It is, for example, harder to get external opinions about you. A final thought Writing
is a very personal process. Nobody can tell you how writing ‘should’ be for you,
especially creative writing. Everyone works differently, and the process of
developing characters and stories is different for every writer.
Probably the best advice is simply to start writing, keeping in mind the elements
listed here, and then seek feedback from those around you.
Q. Effects of Creative Writing Activities on Students’ Achievement in Writing,
Writing Dispositions and Attitude to English
Ans. Creative writing can offer numerous benefits to students, contributing to their
overall academic and personal development. Here are several ways in which
creative writing can augment the achievements of students:
1. Enhances Communication Skills:
Creative writing encourages students to express themselves effectively. Through
the practice of crafting stories, poems, or essays, students develop a more
profound understanding of language and improve their ability to communicate
ideas clearly and persuasively.
2. Cultivates Critical Thinking:
Creating a narrative or constructing an argument in writing requires critical
thinking skills. Students must analyze situations, consider different perspectives,
and make decisions about plot, character development, or the structure of their
writing. This process enhances their analytical and problem-solving abilities.
3. Fosters Imagination and Creativity:
Engaging in creative writing prompts students to use their imagination, think
outside the box, and explore new ideas. This creative thinking extends beyond
writing and can positively impact other academic subjects and real-world problem-
solving.
4. Develops Empathy:
Writing often involves exploring different characters and their perspectives. This
can help students develop empathy by putting themselves in someone else's
shoes, understanding diverse experiences, and appreciating the complexities of
human emotions and relationships.
5. Improves Academic Performance:
The skills developed through creative writing, such as critical thinking,
communication, and analytical abilities, can have a positive impact on overall
academic performance. These skills are transferable and can be applied in various
subjects and academic tasks.
6. Builds Confidence:
Successfully completing a creative writing piece, whether it's a short story, poem,
or essay, can boost a student's confidence. The process of expressing oneself
creatively and receiving feedback helps build self-esteem and a sense of
accomplishment.
7. Strengthens Language Proficiency:
Regular practice in creative writing contributes to improved language proficiency.
Students expand their vocabulary, refine their grammar and syntax, and develop a
more sophisticated writing style, which can benefit them across all academic
disciplines.
8. Encourages Self-Reflection:
Writing often involves introspection and self-reflection. Through creative writing,
students have the opportunity to explore and understand their own thoughts,
feelings, and experiences. This introspective process can contribute to personal
growth and self-awareness.
9. Prepares for Future Careers:
In many professions, effective communication is a crucial skill. Creative writing
helps students develop the ability to convey ideas persuasively, which can be
advantageous in various career paths such as marketing, journalism, content
creation, and more.
10. Promotes Lifelong Learning:
Engaging in creative writing fosters a love for learning and a curiosity about the
world. It encourages a lifelong habit of exploration, inquiry, and a desire to
continue developing one's skills and knowledge.
In summary, creative writing serves as a multifaceted tool that not only enhances
specific writing abilities but also contributes to the overall cognitive, emotional,
and social development of students. The skills acquired through creative writing
can be valuable assets that extend beyond the realm of literature and impact
various aspects of a student's academic and personal life.
Q. Define creative non-fiction. Distinguish creative non-fiction from
fiction with examples from texts you are familiar with.
Ans.What is creative nonfiction? Despite its slightly enigmatic name, no
literary genre has grown quite as quickly as creative nonfiction in recent
decades. Literary nonfiction is now well-established as a powerful means
of storytelling, and bookstores now reserve large amounts of space for
nonfiction, when it often used to occupy a single bookshelf.
Like any literary genre, creative nonfiction has a long history; also like
other genres, defining contemporary CNF for the modern writer can be
nuanced. If you’re interested in writing true-to-life stories but you’re not
sure where to begin, let’s start by dissecting the creative nonfiction genre
and what it means to write a modern literary essay.
WHAT CREATIVE NONFICTION IS
Creative nonfiction employs the creative writing techniques of literature,
such as poetry and fiction, to retell a true story.
How do we define creative nonfiction? What makes it “creative,” as
opposed to just “factual writing”? These are great questions to ask when
entering the genre, and they require answers which could become literary
essays themselves.
In short, creative nonfiction (CNF) is a form of storytelling that employs
the creative writing techniques of literature, such as poetry and fiction, to
retell a true story. Creative nonfiction writers don’t just share pithy
anecdotes, they use craft and technique to situate the reader into their
own personal lives. Fictional elements, such as character development
and narrative arcs, are employed to create a cohesive story, but so are
poetic elements like conceit and juxtaposition.
The CNF genre is wildly experimental, and contemporary nonfiction
writers are pushing the bounds of literature by finding new ways to tell
their stories. While a CNF writer might retell a personal narrative, they
might also focus their gaze on history, politics, or they might use creative
writing elements to write an expository essay. There are very few limits to
what creative nonfiction can be, which is what makes defining the genre
so difficult—but writing it so exciting. DIFFERENT FORMS OF CREATIVE
NONFICTION
From the autobiographies of Mark Twain and Benvenuto Cellini, to the
more experimental styles of modern writers like Karl Ove Knausgård,
creative nonfiction has a long history and takes a wide variety of forms.
Common iterations of the creative nonfiction genre include the following:
MEMOIR
Also known as biography or autobiography, the memoir form is probably
the most recognizable form of creative nonfiction. Memoirs are
collections of memories, either surrounding a single narrative thread or
multiple interrelated ideas. The memoir is usually published as a book or
extended piece of fiction, and many memoirs take years to write and
perfect. Memoirs often take on a similar writing style as the personal
essay does, though it must be personable and interesting enough to
encourage the reader through the entire book.
PERSONAL ESSAY
Personal essays are stories about personal experiences told using literary
techniques.
When someone hears the word “essay,” they instinctively think about
those five paragraph book essays everyone wrote in high school. In
creative nonfiction, the personal essay is much more vibrant and dynamic.
Personal essays are stories about personal experiences, and while some
personal essays can be standalone stories about a single event, many
essays braid true stories with extended metaphors and other narratives.
Personal essays are often intimate, emotionally charged spaces. Consider
the opening two paragraphs from Beth Ann Fennelly’s personal essay “I
Survived the Blizzard of ’79.”
We didn’t question. Or complain. It wouldn’t have occurred to us, and it
wouldn’t have helped. I was eight. Julie was ten.
We didn’t know yet that this blizzard would earn itself a moniker that
would be silk-screened on T-shirts. We would own such a shirt, which
extended its tenure in our house as a rag for polishing silver.
The word “essay” comes from the French “essayer,” which means “to try”
or “attempt.” The personal essay is more than just an autobiographical
narrative—it’s an attempt to tell your own history with literary
techniques.
LYRIC ESSAY
The lyric essay contains similar subject matter as the personal essay, but
is much more experimental in form.
The lyric essay contains similar subject matter as the personal essay, with
one key distinction: lyric essays are much more experimental in form.
Poetry and creative nonfiction merge in the lyric essay, challenging the
conventional prose format of paragraphs and linear sentences.
The lyric essay stands out for its unique writing style and sentence
structure. Consider these lines from “Life Code” by J. A. Knight:
The dream goes like this: blue room of water. God light from above. Child’s
fist, foot, curve, face, the arc of an eye, the symmetry of circles… and then
an opening of this body—which surprised her—a movement so clean and
assured and then the push towards the light like a frog or a fish.
What we get is language driven by emotion, choosing an internal logic
rather than a universally accepted one.
Lyric essays are amazing spaces to break barriers in language. For
example, the lyricist might write a few paragraphs about their story, then
examine a key emotion in the form of a villanelle or a ghazal. They might
decide to write their entire essay in a string of couplets or a series of
sonnets, then interrupt those stanzas with moments of insight or analysis.
In the lyric essay, language dictates form. The successful lyricist lets the
words arrange themselves in whatever format best tells the story,
allowing for experimental new forms of storytelling.
LITERARY JOURNALISM
Much more ambiguously defined is the idea of literary journalism. The
idea is simple: report on real life events using literary conventions and
styles. But how do you do this effectively, in a way that the audience pays
attention and takes the story seriously?
You can best find examples of literary journalism in more “prestigious”
news journals, such as The New Yorker, The Atlantic, Salon, and
occasionally The New York Times. Think pieces about real world events,
as well as expository journalism, might use braiding and extended
metaphors to make readers feel more connected to the story. Other forms
of nonfiction, such as the academic essay or more technical writing, might
also fall under literary journalism, provided those pieces still use the
elements of creative nonfiction.
Consider this recently published article from The Atlantic: The Uncanny
Tale of Shimmel Zohar by Lawrence Weschler. It employs a style that’s
breezy yet personable—including its opening line.
So I first heard about Shimmel Zohar from Gravity Goldberg—yeah, I
know, but she insists it’s her real name (explaining that her father was a
physicist)—who is the director of public programs and visitor experience
at the Contemporary Jewish Museum, in San Francisco.
HOW TO WRITE CREATIVE NONFICTION: COMMON ELEMENTS AND
TECHNIQUES
What separates a general news update from a well-written piece of
literary journalism? What’s the difference between essay writing in high
school and the personal essay? When nonfiction writers put out creative
work, they are most successful when they utilize the following elements.
NARRATION
Just like fiction, nonfiction relies on effective narration. Telling the story
with an effective plot, writing from a certain point of view, and using the
narrative to flesh out the story’s big idea are all key craft elements. How
you structure your story can have a huge impact on how the reader
perceives the work, as well as the insights you draw from the story itself.
Consider the first lines of the story “To the Miami University Payroll Lady”
by Frenci Nguyen:
You might not remember me, but I’m the dark-haired, Texas-born, Asian-
American graduate student who visited the Payroll Office the other day to
complete direct deposit and tax forms.
Because the story is written in second person, with the reader
experiencing the story as the payroll lady, the story’s narration feels much
more personal and important, forcing the reader to evaluate their own
personal biases and beliefs.
OBSERVATION
Telling the story involves more than just simple plot elements, it also
involves situating the reader in the key details. Setting the scene requires
attention to all five senses, and interpersonal dialogue is much more
effective when the narrator observes changes in vocal pitch, certain facial
expressions, and movements in body language. Essentially, let the reader
experience the tiny details – we access each other best through minutiae.
The story “In Transit” by Erica Plouffe Lazure is a perfect example of
storytelling through observation. Every detail of this flash piece is
carefully noted to tell a story without direct action, using observations
about group behavior to find hope in a crisis. We get observation when
the narrator notes the following:
Here at the St. Thomas airport in mid-March, we feel the urgency of the
transition, the awareness of how we position our bodies, where we place
our luggage, how we consider for the first time the numbers of people
whose belongings are placed on the same steel table, the same conveyor
belt, the same glowing radioactive scan, whose IDs are touched by the
same gloved hand[.]
What’s especially powerful about this story is that it is written in a single
sentence, allowing the reader to be just as overwhelmed by observation
and context as the narrator is.
BRAIDING
We’ve used this word a lot, but what is braiding? Braiding is a technique
most often used in creative nonfiction where the writer intertwines
multiple narratives, or “threads.” Not all essays use braiding, but the
longer a story is, the more it benefits the writer to intertwine their story
with an extended metaphor or another idea to draw insight from.
“The Crush” by Zsofia McMullin demonstrates braiding wonderfully.
Some paragraphs are written in first person, while others are written in
second person.
The following example from “The Crush” demonstrates braiding:
Your hair is still wet when you slip into the booth across from me and
throw your wallet and glasses and phone on the table, and I marvel at
how everything about you is streamlined, compact, organized. I am
always overflowing — flesh and wants and a purse stuffed with snacks and
toy soldiers and tissues.
The author threads these narratives together by having both people
interact in a diner, yet the reader still perceives a distance between the
two threads because of the separation of “I” and “you” pronouns. When
these threads meet, briefly, we know they will never meet again.
INSIGHT
Speaking of insight, creative nonfiction writers must draw novel
conclusions from the stories they write. When the narrator pauses in the
story to delve into their emotions, explain complex ideas, or draw
strength and meaning from tough situations, they’re finding insight in the
essay.
Often, creative writers experience insight as they write it, drawing
conclusions they hadn’t yet considered as they tell their story, which
makes creative nonfiction much more genuine and raw.
The story “Me Llamo Theresa” by Theresa Okokun does a fantastic job of
finding insight. The story is about the history of our own names and the
generations that stand before them, and as the writer explores her
disconnect with her own name, she recognizes a similar disconnect in her
mother, as well as the need to connect with her name because of her
father.
The narrator offers insight when she remarks:
I began to experience a particular type of identity crisis that so many
immigrants and children of immigrants go through — where we are called
one name at school or at work, but another name at home, and in our
hearts.
Q. Discuss sonnet as a mode of creative writing.
Ans. A sonnet is a poetic form that has been used for centuries, known
for its specific structure, rhyme scheme, and often, its exploration of
themes such as love, beauty, and the passage of time. The sonnet has
endured as a popular mode of creative writing, and its constraints offer a
unique challenge and opportunity for expression. There are different
types of sonnets, but perhaps the most well-known are the
Shakespearean (or Elizabethan) and the Petrarchan (or Italian) sonnets.
Shakespearean Sonnet:
The Shakespearean sonnet consists of 14 lines, typically written in iambic
pentameter, and follows the rhyme scheme ABABCDCDEFEFGG. The three
quatrains (four-line stanzas) present a theme or problem, and the final
rhymed couplet offers a resolution, conclusion, or twist. The volta, or
turn, often occurs at the start of the third quatrain, where there is a shift
in tone or argument.
Petrarchan Sonnet:
The Petrarchan sonnet, named after the Italian poet Petrarch, is divided
into an octave (eight-line stanza) and a sestet (six-line stanza). The rhyme
scheme of the octave is typically ABBAABBA, and the sestet can have
various rhyme schemes, such as CDCDCD or CDECDE. The octave often
presents a problem or situation, and the sestet provides a resolution,
commentary, or contrasting viewpoint. The volta in a Petrarchan sonnet
often occurs at the ninth line.
Features of Sonnets:
1. Iambic Pentameter:
Sonnets are often written in iambic pentameter, a poetic meter where
each line consists of five iambs, or pairs of syllables with the emphasis on
the second syllable. This rhythmic pattern contributes to the musicality
and flow of the sonnet.
2. Rhyme Scheme:
The specific rhyme scheme of a sonnet, whether Shakespearean or
Petrarchan, provides a structured framework for the poet to work within.
This structure can be seen as a challenge to creativity, inspiring poets to
find new and innovative ways to express their ideas while adhering to the
prescribed form.
3. Compact Form and Conciseness:
With only 14 lines, a sonnet demands brevity and conciseness. Poets
must carefully choose their words and craft their language to convey
complex emotions, ideas, or narratives within a limited space.
4. Exploration of Themes:
Sonnets often explore themes such as love, beauty, mortality, nature,
and the human experience. The constraint of the form allows for a
focused exploration of a particular theme or emotion, making each word
and image significant.
5. Volta (Turn):
The volta, or turn, is a crucial element in sonnets. It represents a shift in
tone, perspective, or argument, adding depth and complexity to the
poem. The volta often occurs between the octet and sestet in a
Petrarchan sonnet or in the third quatrain in a Shakespearean sonnet.
6. Expressive Language:
Poets use evocative and expressive language to create imagery, convey
emotions, and engage the reader's senses. The sonnet form encourages
the use of metaphor, simile, and other poetic devices to enhance the
impact of the poem.
Overall, the sonnet is a timeless and versatile mode of creative writing
that challenges poets to blend structure and creativity, resulting in a rich
and meaningful expression of human experience. Poets throughout
history, from William Shakespeare to Elizabeth Barrett Browning, have
found inspiration and a powerful means of self-expression in the sonnet
form.
Q. As a columnist, write a review of a book you have read recently.
Name of the book - author - publisher - readership - cover and illustrations
- plot - characters - insight into some interesting incident - message if any
- appeal the book hold
The White Tiger by Aravind Adiga
Aravind Adiga's first novel, The White Tiger, paints a vivid and disturbing
picture of life in the strikingly different cultures that comprise modern
India. Home to more than 15 percent of the world's population, the
country has grown to become an economic power, and yet vast numbers
of its inhabitants have little to show for its prosperity. The conflict created
by that reality propels this riveting tale.
Son of a rickshaw puller, the neo conventional protagonist from the book,
The White Tiger, Balram Halwai, narates the actual story connected with
his lifestyle and his movement through darkness in order to attain light.
In a tongue-in-cheek manner he unravels how the ruling capitalist
ideology never ever allows the actual poverty stricken to come up into the
limelight. The publisher of the book is Harper Collins India Limited.
Summary of the book
In essentially the most impoverished along with destitute villages in the
Indian subcontinent, a young boy is hungry for knowledge. However, the
circumstances plus the cultural disorders prevalent causes it to become
almost unattainable for him to do so. Prevailing among the limited
opportunities, the son of a rickshaw-puller, find a means to escape the
vice-grip associated with his family and he becomes the driver for the son
of a wealthy landowner. Brilliant and quick-witted, he quickly relates to
terms while using the divide concerning the rich and the poor. He realizes
that he should now break the centuries-old shackles and should flee
intended for his existence and vie his old life to satisfy his fate.
Detailed review
White Tiger is the story of Balram, the son of a rickshaw puller, who lives
within a small Indian village. He detects the destitution of his family
members, repulses and decides to break clear of it. He is searching for
opportunities that can alleviate his poverty. He learns to drive and
manages to obtain a driver's job with the property owner of his village.
Lady Luck smiles upon him as Balram was asked to accompany the
property owner's son to Delhi as a driver. In Delhi, Balram understands
the ways of the city society. A keen observer and a fast learner, Balram
realizes fastly that slight dishonesty should bring him sufficient money for
any security in near future. He kills his master along with which he runs
off to Bengaluru and years later, Balram is viewed as a good influential
member of the Bengaluru power circle productively steering his career
derived from one height completely to another.
About Aravidn Adiga
Born on October 23, 1974, Aravind Adiga is working as an Indian journalist
and writer. In the year 20082008, his debut novel The White Tiger won
the Man Booker Prize.
Q. How to Publish a Short Story: 5 Important Steps When You’re Ready
to Publish
Ans. Most writers start out knowing next to nothing about the publishing side of
the writing business. They know they want to have a writing career, but don't know
where to start. Publishing seems so intimidating that it's easy to just give up and
write only for yourself. But if you're going to be a short story writer, or be any kind
of published writer, you're eventually going to have to share your work with the
world.
The process of publishing isn't as bad as everyone makes it out to be, and you have
plenty of options in order to publish your short story (or collection of stories).
In this article, I'll walk you through the process of publishing a short story so that
this part of being a writer can be easy and not overwhelm you.
Traditional Publishing
The vast majority of writers have gone through the submission process to short
story markets. Stephen King famously had a nail on his office wall where he impaled
every rejection letter he received. Here are the five steps to getting your short story
traditionally published:
Step 1: Look for publications
There's a wide variety of short story markets out there, including ezines, literary
magazines and literary journals (yes those still exist), and anthologies out there
that take submissions.
The “professional” level of these publications varies widely, adoes the pay rate.
Don’t expect to get rich off of short stories. The pay rate is often very low. But don’t
ignore smaller publications because of the pay rate, either.
Some of those publications might win awards frequently, even if they don’t pay
very well. And it never hurts to have your work in an award-winning publication!
Take the time to investigate before you settle on that particular publication.
If you can afford to buy at least one of their past issues or anthologies, do so. What
they’ve previously published are gems that can give great insight into what they
like and don’t like.
If you can’t buy an issue, try to do as much research as possible and read their
submission guidelines for insight.
You are researching to see if your piece seems to fit with what the story market
normally publishes, but also what their acceptance rate is (that's the chances of
publication with that market), what their submission periods are, and what their
pay rate is.
Don’t focus all your attention on the larger, more well-known magazines. Your
chances of acceptance are better elsewhere (to start) and there’s nothing wrong
with the little guys. Along those same lines, paid publications are great, but don’t
expect to make eight cents a word out of the gate. Step 2: Prepare your submission
materials. The following may seem a bit intimidating, but it’s nothing compared to
writing the story. You already did the hard part. Ninety-nine percent of publications
will have specific submission guidelines they want you to follow. You need to read
them. Twice. Make sure you follow them.
Some publications will reject you without reading your story if you don’t follow the
instructions. And you will most definitely get rejected if you submit outside of the
market's submission periods.
Q. Write a short script on the pandemic, for podcast.
Ans. This is a podcast script for the first of our episodes about the COVID-
19 epidemic. It first came out on 17th March 2020. For that reason, much
of the scientific and medical information, though accurate at the time
below, has been superseded by new information. Please read this as it is
— a historical document composed in the midst of a breaking news story,
which has not been edited.
We have done episodes subsequently on the COVID-19 pandemic, but I
won’t be publishing the scripts unless there is demand for them. Hello,
everyone. Did you miss me?
For the last few weeks and months — while I’ve been struggling with
juggling work and some ongoing health issues — I’ve had this internal
debate going on in my mind about the podcast. I really wanted to bring it
back, as soon as I had the time and energy to do so. At the same time, all
of the energy I’d usually use for research outside of my ordinary work was
entirely focused on the threat from what was called the Wuhan
coronavirus, but is now very much the world’s coronavirus.
If you’re listening to this, you probably know all about the basic facts. We
are now in the midst of a global pandemic, the potential scale of which
we haven’t seen for a hundred years since the Spanish Flu in 1918–1919.
If your country hasn’t yet implemented lockdown measures, they are
probably on the way. As I write this in London, the official advice is to
avoid all non-necessary social contact, and in a few weeks, the advice may
well be even more draconian.
So I was stuck in the midst of a debate. Do I write an episode about the
coronavirus pandemic? On one level — I’m a physicist, not an
epidemiologist, and so it’s not my area to write a special episode on this
topic as it was when, say, the Neutron Star merger happened. I’m totally
aware that there is massive saturation, everywhere, about this pandemic
right now. A lot of what I have to say will not be news to you, and will just
add one more “take” to an ocean of “takes” that you can find across the
planet at the moment. At the same time, the information we have is
rapidly being updated, all the time — and so this podcast, even if I get it
finished and recorded today, will probably be out of date a few days or
weeks after you hear it. This is probably already far too late, and I should
have written and recorded it weeks ago when I first started researching to
get the information out there, but that doesn’t matter now: my fault for
being slow. Some of the information may be wrong, and I’ll attempt to
point out where I am guessing. Not even the experts can truly, honestly
give you more than a very well-educated guess about how this is all going
to pan out, because a pandemic on this scale with this kind of virus and
this many unknowns is quite unprecedented in their lifetimes too, and in
modern society. So not everything will be correct. And the psychological
burden of dealing with this thing for what I’m afraid will be many many
months to come is going to be severe for all of us. It may well be that the
last thing anyone wants is yet another discussion of the coronavirus.

These are all excellent arguments for me keeping my trap shut and instead
continuing to work on the other scripts that I’ve been squeezing into my
spare time lately. But on the other side — on the other, overwhelming,
compelling side — is the fact that, since about the 12th of February when
the first case arrived in my country (the UK) and it became very clear to
me that this was unlikely to be contained within Wuhan and within China,
where I’d been seeing terrible messages from for weeks since the
lockdown– it’s been pretty much all I’ve been thinking about, reading
about, conjuring up worst-case scenarios about.
So, if the compelling arguments not to make a coronavirus episode
sounded good to you, switch off. If you are going to find it upsetting to
listen to me discuss this as a supposed leisure activity, switch off. Call a
loved one instead. I will try my hardest to be back soon with what I
promise will be non-pandemic related content about, I don’t know, stars
or artificial intelligence, or anything aside from the pandemic. If for some
reason you’re a sucker for punishment on this stuff, indulge me as I try to
write about it. This is a therapeutic exercise for me as much as anything
else, just to try and clear some space in my brain for — well, almost
anything else.
I should also point out that a lot of what drove my concern around this
virus was all the research I did way back in 2017 for the TEOTWAWKI series
— The End of the World As We Know It — on pandemics. I listened back
to that, and while bits of it sound hopelessly naive and scientifically
muddled, other parts of it sound more than a little prophetic. The whole
message that the relentless research on “the end of the world as we know
it” really drove home to me is just how much we all seem to accept that
our way of life, our way of understanding the world and behaving in it, the
structures that form our society… are taken for granted as immutable,
unchangeable, when in actual fact there are plenty of things out there
that might change them. Both on a personal and a global, societal level,
there are rare events that can happen which will just wreck all of the
assumptions you made about the future wholesale and cause you to
completely re-organise your priorities. For the last few weeks as the news
has continued to accelerate I’ve been conjuring up this kind of scenario in
my head… and hoping that it wouldn’t actually come to pass, in the end….
But that is what is happening now.
I should also say that by no means is this “the end of the world” — but
the world won’t be “as we know it” for quite some time. One of the
curious things about this pandemic is that, statistically speaking, the risk
to any given individual is actually probably quite low, maybe lower than
you imagine it being, for reasons that we’ll get into further a bit later on.
Unfortunately, when you multiply a low risk to any given individual by a
hell of a lot of individuals, the risk to society at large becomes substantial.
1% multiplied by 70 million people is 700,000 people. And again, if that’s
the kind of sum you don’t want to hear about, switch off now.
So let’s begin with what we know.
In December 2019, the first cluster of pneumonia patients of an unknown
cause appeared in a hospital in Wuhan, China. Wuhan is a city of about
11 million people — so about the size of London — and it’s just a
testament to how huge China is that this is not a city that a lot of people
had heard of prior to this outbreak.
Epidemiological tracing has worked out that the first person to apparently
have symptoms had those symptoms on the 1st of December, although
there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that suggests that the virus was
circulating in people substantially before that. So this is one of the first,
the key things to understand about this virus, I think — there’s a delay
involved. Once you get infected, it can take up to fourteen days for any
symptoms to show up. Once you get ill, the disease progresses like a mild
cold or flu in most people for the first week or so, and in a small fraction
of people who get it, then continually gets worse until they have this viral
pneumonia — that’s inflammation of the lungs that is caused by a virus.
So the most obvious sign that anyone has the disease is when a whole
bunch of patients with viral pneumonia show up at the hospital, and they
test negative for the flu or anything else that could cause this kind of
illness. But you can immediately see why this is a problem. If, say, 10% of
people who get this develop pneumonia and symptoms bad enough to go
to the hospital — and we’ll come back to this later — then let’s say you
notice 10 people with viral pneumonia showing up at your hospital. That
means that three or four weeks ago, you had 100 people in the
community with the virus — most of whom will have been spreading it
for a while. By the time someone unfortunately dies of this disease,
statistically speaking, as the death rate with good medical care is around
1%, you probably had 100 people with the illness in your community as
long as a month ago. So by the time you’re aware of the outbreak, it’s
already bigger than you think it is. In fact, in the pandemics episodes in
2017, we theorized that the worst kind of virus to emerge would be one
that was initially asymptomatic or showed small, hardly noticeable
symptoms for a long time — which would allow people to travel and
spread it internationally before anyone realised what was happening —
and, unfortunately, that appears to be exactly what has happened here,
which explains why the situation is currently so severe.
Some terminology, then; this virus is called SARS-COV-2, for reasons we’ll
explain, and the disease that it causes is coronavirus disease 2019 or
COVID-19. So the virus itself has a different name to the disease that it
causes; like most people, I’ll just carry on saying coronavirus.
Initial reporting suggested that the cluster of cases of this new virus could
mostly be related back to a seafood market in Wuhan itself. This would
make sense as the origin of a new kind of virus, because, as we discussed
in the pandemic episode, way back in 2017, new kinds of worrying viruses
often arise from animal transfer into humans. In these markets, lots of
animals and lots of humans are living in very close proximity, so it’s easy
to imagine how a virus that began in bats, which are mammals, might
mutate and jump into other mammals, like pangolins, and then mutate
once again and make the leap into humans. This is the current working
theory for what might have happened here. Bats are reservoirs — they
have potentially hundreds of different strains of viruses in their system at
any one time — so while the probability that such a mutation happens is
not all that high in isolation, with enough time and enough mutations,
eventually, this kind of thing does happen.
And indeed there were two previous outbreaks — one of Sudden Acute
Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS — and another of MERS, Middle East
Respiratory Syndrome — which have also been traced to coronaviruses
that are suspected to have crossed over from animals into people at one
point or another. These outbreaks make for good case studies as to why
some viruses are more potentially dangerous to cause massive pandemics
than others. Both of those viruses have much higher fatality rates than
the new coronavirus. SARS ultimately killed around 11% of those infected.
MERS was around 34%.
Paradoxically, the high fatality rate is a big part of the reason why these
viruses have been easier to contain so far. It is actually, paradoxically, the
fact that the new coronavirus has a low fatality rate and appears to be
mild for most people who get it that is allowing it to spread so quickly.
The traditional approach to containing such an infection is one that you’ve
probably seen your own country attempt to do in recent times; test sick
people, work out who they came into contact with, trace each and every
one of those contacts and quarantine them, providing medical treatment
where required. For small outbreaks, you can actually hope to cut off
nearly every connecting strand to prevent the virus from getting out and
infecting anyone else. A few weeks ago, it became clear in most European
countries that “community spread” had started, i.e. cases that were not
linked to any known other cases, which is a sign that this attempt to
contain the virus was failing. It has now failed in most countries in the
world, although it was always going to be an extremely difficult task due
to the basic properties of the virus, and let me try to explain why.

People infected with SARS or MERS were usually severely ill — very easy
to identify. Also, if you’re severely ill, you’re unlikely to be going out and
infecting other people in the community and much more likely to be
isolated at home, where the contacts you have are easier to trace, or in
the hospital. Not that outbreaks can’t occur in hospitals — the Toronto
SARS outbreak, which ultimately killed 43 and resulted in 251 cases — was
traced entirely back to a single patient who went to hospital after flying
back from Hong Kong with the illness. A big part of the reason why was
that few people were aware of the condition and they didn’t have the
proper protective equipment while treating the patient; in the Prince of
Wales hospital in Hong Kong in the early days of the outbreak, up to 99
people were infected by a single patient while treating the person. There
are reports that people with SARS were not actually really contagious until
a few days after they started showing symptoms; which means that, as
long as everyone is on high alert, you can hope to track down and identify
each individual case of SARS and limit the spread to healthcare facilities.
MERS, where the disease’s severity is even worse and it appears to
struggle to transmit person-to-person as easily, is easier to contain than
the new coronavirus for similar reasons.
In the pandemics episode, we pointed out that viruses like Bird Flu —
where the fatality rate is high and the symptoms often severe — are
thankfully not well adapted to become pandemics for this very reason. As
a virus, it’s best not to kill or incapacitate your host; viruses need hosts to
survive. If they can walk around essentially perfectly happily infecting
others for an extended period of time, as is the case with common colds,
the virus won’t die out so easily. New viruses that transfer from animals
— we call them zoonotic in origin — are often not particularly attuned to
humans, though, which is why initially they can kill an awful lot of people,
and sometimes will eventually be replaced by a milder strain that can
spread more easily, as it’s actually evolutionarily advantageous for the
virus not to kill people, but to continue to reproduce for as long as
possible.
With the new coronavirus, though, we have no such luck; lots of cases are
mild, and the disease spreads rapidly because, as it’s a new illness which
no-one in the world was immune to (and even now, very few people in
the world are immune to this virus.)
This means that we need to look at some of the characteristics of this
virus to understand what this pandemic might potentially result in. One
of the key measures that people use to characterise pandemics is the so-
called R0 value, the basic reproduction number. This is, if you’re infected,
the average number of people that you will go on to infect. It’s worth
saying that this depends on an awful lot of things. For example, it depends
on the symptoms that the virus has, how good it is at spreading itself
around, how long people are sick for, and also how many people they
interact with.
Initial estimates for this virus suggest that the R0 is somewhere around
2.4, perhaps between 2 and 3 to give decent estimates. One obvious point
to make here is that as long as R0 is more than 1 — i.e. each person infects
more than one other person on average — you’re going to see a growth
in cases. The aim of containment and control measures is to reduce R0 to
less than 1. When we talk about R0 here, it will be assuming that there
are no control measures at all.
We can compare this to other diseases. Seasonal flu has an R0 of 1.4 —
it’s less contagious, perhaps because people have some immunity to
seasonal flu due to the vaccines that are regularly produced,
encountering similar strains before, or perhaps due to the nature of the
symptoms for a bout of seasonal flu. But there are other diseases that are
far more contagious — measles, for example, has an R0 of between 12
and 18, and smallpox had an R0 between 5 and 7, so you can see that
there are some truly terrifying pandemics out there in history that have
been even more infectious than this disease.
We can learn something else interesting from R0, and this is that it
actually gives you a rough estimate for what total percentage of the
population might end up being infected with a disease if nothing is done.
This very rough estimate is quite easy to understand. Let’s assume that
once people are infected, they are immune. If your disease has an R0 of
2, then it means that you will infect two other people on average. Imagine
that the whole population is mingling about, getting sick, and recovering,
until half of everyone is now immune to this disease. Then, of those two
people you go on to infect, one will be immune already, and won’t get
infected. So the actual R0 is now 1 — which means that you’re infecting
just 1 person on average. At this point, the number of new cases will start
to decline.
This is something a little like what we might call herd immunity; if you get
infected, but most of the people you meet are immune, there will be no
outbreak. For a very simple virus model, we can expect 1–1/R0 of the
people could get sick in total, and that will give you, with R0 2.4, about
58% of people getting sick in total before the disease will stop spreading.
Now clearly you see a couple of things. The first is that this is a really rough
estimate. If people don’t widely circulate, or say infected people are kept
together and away from immune people as much as possible, then the R0
is going to go down. It’s assuming no control measures and everyone
mixing together. The second is that this is an equilibrium estimate.
Physicists love these! Once you can take time out of the equation, by just
looking for the next time your system will stop evolving and be in a steady
state situation, you don’t need to worry about that pesky time
dependence any more and can just consider what things will look like in
the long term. In equilibrium, once the disease has run its course, in this
toy model, 60% of people could be infected. And finally, you can see just
how crucial uncertainty about the true R0 value is to how much damage
you think this disease is going to do. So for example there is a paper which
you can read online called: Estimation of the reproductive number of
novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the
Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis.
They estimate there that the R0 is probably between 2.06 and 2.52. Initial
estimates with less data assumed it was between 2 and 3. But the
difference between 2 and 3 is the difference between 50% and 67% of
your population eventually getting sick; which is millions of people in your
country or mine. For the seasonal flu epidemics you might naively expect
28% of the population to get sick if there was no vaccine at all for a new
flu.
You can also, incidentally, see from this toy model why vaccines for much
faster-spreading illnesses like measles are so absolutely crucial. If measles
has an R0 of 12, then to be safe, you need to have 92% of the population
vaccinated — otherwise, if anyone gets measles, they will probably
spread it to more than one other person and you’ll have an outbreak that
will grow in size, although obviously not as badly and not as quickly as it
would if no one was vaccinated at all.
There’s one other important thing to talk about for this toy model, and it
brings in another toy model that is the favourite of physicists and tech
people everywhere. I noticed that a lot of silicon valley companies were
the first to close down their events, and I actually think this is why: they
think exponentially.
Exponential growth in mathematics, you can simply think about as
doubling in a given period of time. For this disease, we suspect that
doubling could occur every 4–7 days, depending on how much people are
interacting and so on. And this means, in practice, if you’re not used to
thinking about these things, that stuff will very quickly appear to get out
of hand. So let’s put some numbers to that. Assume a doubling time of 4
days and we start with a single sick person; these are just estimates,
reality is probably a bit quicker than this. After 8 days, we’d have 4 sick
people. After 16 days, 16. Barely noticeable at this stage. After a month
or so, we’d have 256, at which point you might start to have a few cases
of pneumonia show up at your hospital. Another week, 1,000. Another
week, you’d have 4,000 sick people, and you’d start to notice a few people
dying at your hospital of coronavirus. That would be around six weeks
from the start of the epidemic. After another two weeks, two months or
so in total, you’d have 65,000 sick people. It’s worth noting that according
to the UK Chief Medical Officer, this is approximately where they think we enough to need to go to the hospital. Most cases of COVID-19 that are
might be now as I write this on 17th March. This is pretty coherent with observed by medical professionals will be the most serious cases, because
the epidemic starting with a single undetected patient in mid-January, they will be the ones going to the hospital. If you have a mild cold or flu-
which makes sense, as people were likely travelling in from Wuhan at that like symptoms in Wuhan at the peak of the epidemic, or Italy now, or soon
point. You can infer the numbers just as easily for your own country. They enough anywhere else in the world, you are not going to be able to be
will obviously vary from this toy model — maybe the first arrivals from admitted to the hospital; there will be too many other people who need
Wuhan kept to themselves, or maybe they hopped straight on public it.
transport; maybe efforts to track down early cases were successful at
slowing the spread, or maybe they weren’t — a lot of luck and This means that frontline healthcare workers just see, for the most part,
randomness comes into this, but it should on average be approximately the sickest tip of the iceberg. In the limit, imagine an extreme case where
correct. But remember that because pneumonia takes 2–3 weeks to a disease was totally undetectable for 99.9% of people and killed 0.01%
develop, right now, the hospitals are only seeing the results of what we of people almost instantly. [This might actually be true of some diseases
had 2–3 weeks ago. Essentially, the pressure on hospitals now is from the but I feel like we’re all such hypochondriacs right now I won’t go into that
4,000 people who were sick 2 weeks ago, not the 64,000 who are any more.] All the cases detected by hospitals would be the ones who
probably sick now. died straight away, and we’d assume that the disease had a huge fatality
rate. The reality with COVID-19 is somewhere between that and what we
Naturally, you can then carry this on to its grim conclusion. You would might hope would happen.
have, in another two weeks or so, perhaps 500,000 sick people; maybe a
million a week later; and so on, and so forth. At this point, things will get So let’s talk quickly about what the hospitals are seeing. For this, I will
rather grim for your healthcare system. refer to the Chinese CDC study which focused on the outbreak in Wuhan.
Due to the extreme containment measures by Chinese authorities — and
One thing I haven’t mentioned so far is testing. Testing is clearly crucial to I mean extreme; people have not been allowed to leave their houses
any attempt to squash the epidemic in the early stages. But testing is except for groceries for months, people who violate quarantine arrested,
inevitably limited, and not just by things like the number of test kits you people required to wear protective equipment in public at all times, etc.
can produce. For a test to be properly conducted, someone needs to — the initial outbreak there is essentially over, so it’s actually a decent
come to you in full protective equipment and swab your nose and mouth. case study for what a completed outbreak might look like.
With limited nurses and medical staff who can do this at any one time,
the bottleneck for conducting tests is going to be in trained personnel
rather than necessarily anything to do with the number of tests that have
been manufactured. Today, the UK managed to test around 4,000 people,
which is pretty good going, but it’s obvious that the testing now is just
going to give us an idea of which regions and individuals are being hit,
rather than necessarily doing anything to stop the spread of the virus. If
the rough exponential model is accurate — and it appears to be close to
the estimate of 55,000 that the Chief Medical Officer gave today to
parliament — then obviously the 2000 people who have tested positive
in the UK are a drop in the ocean, and we can no longer rely on the classic
SARS method of testing people, isolating them, tracking down their
contacts, and so forth — although this is all valuable work to slow down
the spread of the disease if it can possibly be done, it probably won’t now
contain the epidemic.

Given that different countries are testing by different amounts, one very
rough — if morbid — way you can try to infer how well each country is
doing in its outbreak is with the death rate. If you assume that the death
rate is somewhere between 1 and 5% depending on healthcare — of
which more later — you can then divide the current number of deaths by
that, and account for the time lag, to get you an estimate for how many
people are sick now. In the UK, as of today, 55 people have sadly died.
That means that three weeks ago when those people started to get sick,
we probably had around 5500 cases. So with a few doublings, you can see
that we probably now might have between 44,000 and 88,000 cases,
which again is what the Chief Medical Officer briefed to Parliament earlier
today. So these aren’t magical numbers that are difficult to figure out; it’s
hard to be precise, but in terms of the order of magnitude, the power of
ten, we can easily infer these numbers on our own.

So in terms of the basic principles for me understanding this epidemic,

there are these. We have the time-lag principle — because people take
time to show symptoms, and even longer to get sick enough to go to the
hospital, whatever stage you think you’re at, you’re likely a few weeks
further along in terms of people who have actually been infected. We
have the idea of exponential growth that is potentially only limited by the
basic reproduction number R0 and the fraction of people that are going
to get this disease. Now I want to talk about another key principle in
understanding this epidemic that I’ve realised through all this obsessive
reading about it, and this is what I’ll call confirmed case bias.

So the point here is essentially a simple one. Most people who are being
tested for COVID-19 will be sick. Many of them will be very sick — sick