MATH 115 ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

Chapter 3
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

You can use probability and discrete random variables to calculate the likelihood of
lightning striking the ground five times during a half-hour thunderstorm. (Credit: Leszek
Leszczynski)

Objectives:
After careful study of this chapter, you should be able to do the following:

1. Determine probabilities from probability mass functions and the reverse

2. Determine probabilities from cumulative distribution functions and cumulative
distribution functions from probability mass functions, and the reverse
3. Calculate means and variances for discrete random variables
4. Understand the assumptions for some common discrete probability distributions
5. Select an appropriate discrete probability distribution to calculate probabilities in
specific applications
6. Calculate probabilities, determine means and variances for some common
discrete probability distributions

3.1 Concept of a Random Variable

Statistics is concerned with making inferences about populations and population
characteristics. Experiments are conducted with results that are subject to chance. The
testing of a number of electronic components is an example of a statistical experiment,
a term that is used to describe any process by which several chance observations are
generated. It Is often important to allocate a numerical description to the outcome.

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For example, the sample space giving a detailed description of each possible
outcome when three electronic components are tested may be written as

𝑺 = {𝑵𝑵𝑵, 𝑵𝑵𝑫, 𝑵𝑫𝑵, 𝑫𝑵𝑵, 𝑵𝑫𝑫, 𝑫𝑵𝑫, 𝑫𝑫𝑵, 𝑫𝑫𝑫},

Where N denotes non-defective, and D denotes defective. One is naturally concerned

with the number of defectives that occur. Thus, each point in the sample space will be
assigned a numerical value of 0, 1, 2, or 3. These values are, of course, random quantities
determined by the outcome of the experiment. They may be viewed as values assumed
by the random variable X, the number of defective items when three electronic
components are tested.

Definition 3.1:
A random variable is a function that associates a real number with each element in the
sample space.

We shall use a capital letter, say X, to denote a random variable and its
corresponding small letter, x in this case, for one of its values. In the electronic component
testing example above, we notice that the random variable X assumes the value 2 for all
elements in the subset
𝑬 = {𝑫𝑫𝑵, 𝑫𝑵𝑫, 𝑵𝑫𝑫}

of the sample space S. That is, each possible value of X represents an event that is a
subset of the sample space for the given experiment.

Example 3.1
Two balls are drawn in succession without replacement from an urn containing 4 red balls
and 3 black balls. List all the possible outcomes and the values y of the random variable
Y, where Y is the number of red balls.

Example 3.2
A stockroom clerk returns three safety helmets at random to three steel mill employees
who had previously checked them. If Smith, Jones, and Brown, in that order, receive one
of the three hats, list the sample points for the possible orders of returning the helmets,
and find the value m of the random variable M that represents the number of correct
matches.

The two preceding examples are composed of a sample space that contains a
finite number of elements. On the other hand, when a die is thrown until a 5 occurs, we
obtain a sample space with an unending sequence of elements,
𝑆 = {𝐹, 𝑁𝐹, 𝑁𝑁𝐹, 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝐹, … },
where F and N represent, respectively, the occurrence and nonoccurrence of a 5. But
even in this experiment, the number of elements can be equated to the number of whole
numbers so that there is a fist element, a second element, a third element, and so on,
and in this sense can be counted.
There are cases where the random variable is categorical in nature. Variables,
often called dummy variables, are used.

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Example 3.3
Suppose a sampling plan involves sampling items from a process until a defective is
observed. The evaluation of the process will depend on how many consecutive items are
observed. In that regard, let X be a random variable defined by the number of items
observed before a defective is found. List the possible sample points until a defective is
observed and find the value of x of the random variable X that represents the number of
items observed before a defective is found.

Example 3.4
Let X be random variable defined fined by the waiting time, in hours, between successive
speeders spotted by a radar unit. List all values of x of the random variable X.

Definition 3.2
If a sample space contains a finite number of possibilities or an unending sequence with
as many elements as there are whole numbers, it is called a discrete sample space.

Definition 3.3
If a sample space contains an infinite number of possibilities equal to the number of point
on a line segment, it is called a continuous sample space.

A random variable is called a discrete random variable if its set of possible

outcomes is countable. The random variables of Examples 3.1 to 3.3 are discrete random
variables.
But a random variable whose set of possible values is an entire interval of numbers
is not discrete. When a random variable can take on values on a continuous scale, it is
called a continuous random variable.
In most practical problems, continuous random variables represent measured
data, such as all possible heights, weights, temperatures, distance, or life periods,
whereas discrete random variables represent count data, such as the number of
defectives in a sample of k items or the number of highway fatalities per year in a given
state.

3.2 Discrete Probability Distributions

A discrete random variable assumes each of its values with a certain probability.
Frequently, it is convenient to represent all the probabilities of a random variable X by a
formula. Such formula would necessarily be a function of the numerical values x that we
shall denote by 𝑓(𝑥), 𝑔(𝑥), 𝑟(𝑥), and so forth.
Therefore, we write 𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥); that is, 𝑓(3) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 3). The set of ordered pairs
(𝑥, 𝑓(𝑥)) is called the probability function, probability mass function, or probability
distribution of the discrete random variable X.

Definition 3.4
The set of ordered pairs (𝑥, 𝑓(𝑥)) is a probability function, probability mass function, or
probability distribution of the discrete random variable X if, for each possible outcome x,
1. 𝑓(𝑥) ≥ 0,
2. ∑𝑥 𝑓(𝑥) = 1,
3. 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝑓(𝑥)

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Example 3.5
A shipment of 20 similar laptop computers to a retail outlet contains 3 that are defective.
If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers, find the probability
distribution for the number of defectives.

Example 3.6
If a car agency sells 50% of its inventory of a certain foreign car equipped with side
airbags, find a formula for the probability distribution of the number of cars with side
airbags among the next 4 cars sold by the agency.

There are many problems where we may wish to compute the probability that the
observed value of a random variable X will be less than or equal to some real number x.
Writing 𝐹(𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥) for every real number x, we define 𝐹(𝑥) to be the cumulative
distribution function of the random variable X.

Definition 3.5
The cumulative distribution function 𝐹(𝑥) of a discrete random variable X with probability
distribution 𝑓(𝑥) is
𝑭(𝒙) = 𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝒙) = ∑ 𝒇(𝒕)
𝒕≤𝒙
For −∞ < 𝒙 < ∞.

Example 3.7
Find the cumulative distribution function of the random variable X in Example 3.6. Using
𝐹(𝑥), verify that 𝑓(2) = 3/8.

3.3 Mean and Variance of a Discrete Random Variable

Mean of a Random Variable
The method where the relative frequencies is used to calculate the average value
of the data. We shall refer to this average value as the mean of the random variable X or
the, mean of the probability distribution of X and write it as 𝜇𝑥 or simply as 𝜇 when it is
clear to which random variable we refer. It is also common among statisticians to refere
to this mean as the mathematical expectation, or the expected value of the random
variable X, and denoted as E(X).

Definition 3.6
Let X be a random variable with probability distribution 𝑓(𝑥). The mean, or expected
value, of X is
𝝁 = 𝑬(𝑿) = ∑ 𝒙𝒇(𝒙)
𝒙
If X is discrete, and
∞
𝝁 = 𝑬(𝑿) = ∫ 𝒙𝒇(𝒙)𝒅𝒙
−∞
If X is continuous.

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Example 3.8
A lot containing 7 components is sampled by a quality inspector; the lot contains 4 good
components and 3 defective components. A sample of 3 is taken by the inspector. Find
the expected value of the number of good components in this sample.

Example 3.9
A salesperson for a medical device company has two appointments on a given day. At
the first appointment, he believes that he has a 70% chance to make the deal, from
which he can earn $1000 commission if successful. On the other hand, he thinks he only
has a 40% chance to make the deal at the second appointment, from which, if
successful, he can make $1500. What is his expected commission based on his own
probability belief? Assume that the appointment results are independent of each other.

Theorem 3.1
Let X be a random variable with probability distribution 𝑓(𝑥). The expected value of the
random variable 𝑔(𝑋) is
𝝁𝒈 (𝒙) = 𝑬[𝒈(𝑿)] = ∑ 𝒈(𝒙)𝒇(𝒙)
𝒙
If X is discrete, and
∞
𝝁𝒈 (𝒙) = 𝑬[𝒈(𝑿)] = ∫ 𝒈(𝒙)𝒇(𝒙)𝒅𝒙
−∞
If X is continuous.

Variance of Random Variables

The mean, or expected value, of a random variable X is of special importance in
statistics because it describes where the probability distribution is centered. By itself,
however, the mean does not give an adequate description of the shape of the
distribution.
The most important measure of variability of a random variable X is obtained by
applying Theorem 3.1 with 𝑔(𝑋) = (𝑋 − 𝜇)2 . The quantity is referred to as the variance of
the random variable X or the variance of the probability distribution of X and is denoted
by 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) or the symbol 𝜎𝑥2 , or simply by 𝜎 2 when it is clear to which random variable we
refer.

Definition 3.7
Let X be a random variable with probability distribution 𝑓(𝑥) and mean 𝜇. The variance
of X is
𝝈𝟐 = 𝑬[(𝑿 − 𝝁)𝟐 ] = ∑(𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 𝒇(𝒙)
𝒙
If X is discrete, and
∞
𝝈𝟐 = 𝑬[(𝑿 − 𝝁)𝟐 ] = ∫ (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 𝒇(𝒙)𝒅𝒙
−∞
If X is continuous.
The positive square root of the variance, 𝜎, is called the standard deviation of X.

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The quantity 𝑥 − 𝜇 in Definition 3.7 is called the deviation of an observation from its
mean. Since the deviations are squared and then averaged, 𝜎 2 will be much smaller for
a set of x values that are close to 𝜇 than it will be for a set of values that vary considerably
from 𝜇.

Example 3.10
Let the random variable X represent the number of automobiles that are used for official
business purposes on any given workday.

The probability distribution for Company A (See figure (a))

And that for company B (See figure (b)) is

Show that the variance of the probability distribution for company B is greater than that
for company A.

Theorem 3.2
The variance of a random variable X is
𝝈𝟐 = 𝑬(𝑿𝟐 ) − 𝝁𝟐

Example 3.11
Let the random variable X represent the number of defective parts for a machine when
3 parts are sampled from a production line and tested. The following is the probability
distribution of X.

Using Theorem 3.2, calculate 𝜎 2 .

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3.4 Discrete Uniform Distribution

The simplest discrete random variable is one that assumes only a finite number of possible
values, each with equal probability. A random variable A that assumes each of the
values 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , … , 𝑥𝑛 , with equal probability 1/𝑛, is frequently of interest.

Definition 3.8
A random variable X has a discrete uniform distribution if each of the n values in its range,
say, 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , … , 𝑥𝑛 , has equal probability. Then,
𝒇(𝒙𝒊 ) = 𝟏/𝒏

Example 3.12
The first digit of a part’s serial number is equally likely to be any one of the digits 0 through
9. If one part is selected from a large batch and X is the first digit of the serial number, X
has a discrete uniform distribution with probability 0.1 for each value in 𝑅 = {0, 1, 2, … , 9).
Calculate 𝑓(𝑥) and draw the probability mass function of X.

Suppose the range of the discrete random variable A is the consecutive integers
𝑎, 𝑎 + 1, 𝑎 + 2, … , 𝑏, for 𝑎 ≤ 𝑏. The range of X contains 𝑏 − 𝑎 + 1 values each with probability
1/(𝑏 − 𝑎 + 1). Now,
𝑏
1
𝜇 = ∑𝑘( )
𝑏−𝑎+1
𝑘=𝑎

Simplifying,
(𝑏 + 𝑎)
𝜇=
2

Definition 3.9
Suppose X is a discrete uniform random variable on the consecutive integers 𝑎, 𝑎 + 1, 𝑎 +
2, … , 𝑏, for 𝑎 ≤ 𝑏. The mean of X is
(𝒃 + 𝒂)
𝝁 = 𝑬(𝑿) =
𝟐

The variance of X
(𝒃 − 𝒂 + 𝟏)𝟐 − 𝟏
𝝈𝟐 =
𝟏𝟐

Example 3.13
Let the random variable X denote the number of the 48 voice lines that are in use at a
particular time. Assume that X is a discrete uniform random variable with a range of 0 to
48. Then, solve for the mean and variance of X.

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3.5 Binomial Distribution

Consider the following random experiments and random variables:
1. Flip a coin 10 times. Let X = number of heads obtained,
2. A worn machine tool procedures 1% defective parts. Let X = number of defective
parts in the next 25 parts produced.
3. Each sample of air has a 10% chance of containing a particular rare molecule. Let
X = the number of air samples that contain the rare molecule in the next 18
samples analyzed.
4. Of all bits transmitted through a digital transmission channel, 10% are received in
error. Let X = the number of bits in error in the next five bits transmitted.
5. A multiple-choice test contains 10 questions, each with four choices, and you
guess at each question. Let X = the number of questions answered correctly.
6. In the next 20 births at a hospital, let X = the number of female births.
7. Of all patients suffering a particular illness, 35% experience improvement from a
particular medication. In the next 100 patients administered the medication, let X
= the number of patients who experience improvement.

These examples illustrate that a general probability model that includes these
experiments as particular cases would be very useful. Each of these random experiments
can be thought of as consisting of a series of repeated, random trials. The random
variable in each case is a count of the number of trials that meet a specified criterion.
The outcome from each trial either meets the criterion that X counts, or it does not;
consequently, each trial can be summarized as resulting in either success or a failure.
The terms success and failure are just labels. We can just as well use A and B or 0 or 1.
Unfortunately, the usual labels can sometimes be misleading. In experiment 2, because
X counts defective parts, the production of a defective part is called a success.
A trial with only two possible outcomes is used so frequently as a building block of a
random experiment that it is called a Bernoulli trial. It is usually assumed that the trials that
constitute the random experiment are independent. This implies that the outcome from
one trial has no effect on the outcome to be obtained from any other trial. Furthermore,
it is often reasonable to assume that the probability of a success in each trial is constant.

The Bernoulli Process

The Bernoulli process must possess the following properties:
1. The experiment consists of repeated trials.
2. Each trial results in an outcome that may be classified as a success or a failure.
3. The probability of success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial.
4. The repeated trials are independent

Binomial Distribution
The number X of successes in n Bernoulli trials is called a binomial random variable.
The probability distribution of this discrete random variable is called the Binomial
Distribution, and its values will be denoted by 𝑏(𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑝) since they depend on the number
of trials and the probability of a success on a given trial.
We wish to find a formula that gives the probability of x successes in n trials for a
binomial experiment. First, consider the probability of x successes and 𝑛 − 𝑥 failures in a
specified order. Since the trials are independent, we can multiply all the probabilities

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corresponding to the different outcomes. Each success occurs with probability p and
each failure with probability 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝. Therefore, the probability for the specified order is
𝑝 𝑥 𝑞𝑛−𝑥 . We must now determine the total number of sample points in the experiment that
have x successes and 𝑛 − 𝑥 failures. This number is equal to the number of partitions of n
𝑛
outcomes into two groups with x in one group and 𝑛 − 𝑥 in the other and is written ( ).
𝑥
Because these partitions are mutually exclusive, we add the probabilities of all the
𝑛
different partitions to obtain the general formula, or simply multiply 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞𝑛−𝑥 by ( ).
𝑥

Definition 3.10
A Bernoulli trial can result in a success with probability p and a failure with probability 𝑞 =
1 − 𝑝. Then, the probability distribution of the binomial random variable X, the number of
successes in n independent trials, is
𝒏
𝒃(𝒙; 𝒏, 𝒑) = ( ) 𝒑𝒙 𝒒𝒏−𝒙
𝒙
Where 𝒙 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, … , 𝒏

Example 3.14
The probability that a certain kind of component will survive a shock test is ¾. Find the
probability that exactly 2 of the next 4 components tested survive.

Where Does the Name Binomial come from?

The binomial distribution derives its name from the fact that the 𝑛 + 1 terms in the
binomial expansion of (𝑞 + 𝑝)𝑛 correspond to the various values of 𝑏(𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑝) for 𝑥 =
0,1,2, … , 𝑛. That is,
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛
(𝑞 + 𝑝)𝑛 = ( ) 𝑞 𝑛 + ( ) 𝑝𝑞 𝑛−1 + ( ) 𝑝2 𝑞 𝑛−2 + ⋯ + ( ) 𝑝𝑛
0 1 2 𝑛

= 𝑏(0; 𝑛, 𝑝) + 𝑏(1; 𝑛, 𝑝) + 𝑏(2; 𝑛, 𝑝) + ⋯ + 𝑏(𝑛; 𝑛, 𝑝)

Since 𝑝 + 𝑞 = 1, we see that

𝑛

∑ 𝑏(𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑝) = 1
𝑥=0

A condition that must hold for any probability distribution.

Frequently, we are interested in problems where it is necessary to find 𝑃(𝑋 < 𝑟) or

𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝑏). Binomial sums
𝑟

𝐵(𝑟; 𝑛, 𝑝) = ∑ 𝑏(𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑝)
𝑥=0

Are given in Table A.1 for 𝑛 = 1,2, … ,20 for selected values of p from 0.1 to 0.9.

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Example 3.15
The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.4. If 15 people are
known to have contracted this disease, what is the probability that
a. At least 10 survive?
b. From 3 to 8 survive?
c. Exactly 5 survive?

Example 3.16
A large chain retailer purchases a certain kind of electronic device from a manufacturer.
The manufacturer indicates that the defective rate of the device is 3%.
a. The inspector randomly picks 20 items from a shipment. What is the probability
that there will be at least one defective item among these 20?
b. Suppose that the retailer receives 10 shipments in a month and the inspector
randomly tests 20 devices per shipment. What is the probability that there will be
exactly 3 shipments each containing at least one defective device among the
20 that are selected and tested from the shipment?

Mean and Variance of the Binomial Distribution

Since the probability distribution of any binomial random variable depends only
on the values assumed by the parameters n, p, and q, it would seem reasonable to
assume that the mean and variance of a binomial random variable also depend on the
values assumed by these parameters.

Theorem 3.3
The mean and variance of the binomial distribution 𝑏(𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑝) are
𝝁 = 𝒏𝒑 and 𝝈𝟐 = 𝒏𝒑𝒒

Example 3.17
It is conjectured that an impurity exists in 30% of all drinking wells in a certain rural
community. In order to gain some insight into the true extent of the problem, it is
determined that some testing is necessary. It is too expensive to test all of the wells in the
area, so 10 are randomly selected for testing.
a. Using binomial distribution, what is the probability that exactly 3 wells have the
impurity, assuming that the conjecture is correct?
b. What is the probability that more than 3 wells are impure?

Example 3.18
Find the mean and variance of the binomial random variable in Example 3.15

Example 3.19
Consider the situation of Example 3.17. The notion that 30% of the wells are impure is
merely a conjecture put forth by the area water board. Suppose 10 wells are randomly
selected and 6 are found to contain the impurity. What does this imply about the
conjecture? Use a probability statement.

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3.6 Poisson Distribution

Experiments yielding numerical values of a random variable X, the number of
outcomes occurring during a given time interval or in a specified region, are called
Poisson experiments. The given time interval may be of any length, such as a minute, a
day, a week, a month, or even a year. For example, a Poisson experiment can generate
observations for the random variable X representing the number of telephone calls
received per hour by an office, the number of days school is closed due to snow during
the winter, or the number of games postponed due to rain during a baseball season. The
specified region could be a line segment, an area, a volume, or perhaps a piece of
material. In such instances, X might represent the number of field mice per acre, the
number of bacteria in a given culture, or the number of typing errors per page. A Poisson
experiment is derived from the Poisson process and possesses the following properties.

Properties of the Poisson Process

1. The number of outcomes occurring in one time interval or specified region of
space is independent of the number that occur in any other disjoint time interval
or region. In this sense, we say that the Poisson process has no memory.
2. The probability that a single outcome will occur during a very short time interval or
in a small region is proportional to the length of the time interval or the size of the
region and does not depend on the number of outcomes occurring outside this
time interval or region.
3. The probability that more than one outcome will occur in such a short time interval
or fall in such a small region is negligible.

The number X of outcomes occurring during a Poisson experiment is called a

Poisson random variable, and its probability distribution is called the Poisson distribution.
The mean number of outcomes is computed from 𝜇 = 𝜆𝑡, where t is the specific “time”,
“distance”, “area”, or “volume” of interest. Since the probabilities depend on 𝜆, the rate
of occurrence of outcomes, we shall denote them by 𝑝(𝑥; 𝜆𝑡).

Definition 3.11
The probability distribution of the Poisson random variable X, representing the number of
outcomes occurring in a given time interval or specified region denoted by t, is
𝒆−𝝀𝒕 (𝝀𝒕)𝒙
𝒑(𝒙; 𝝀𝒕) =
𝒙!
𝑥 = 0,1,2 …,
Where 𝜆 is the average number of outcomes per unit time, distance, area, or volume
and 𝑒 = 2.71828 …

Table A.2 contains Poisson probability sums

𝒓

𝑷(𝒓; 𝝀𝒕) = ∑ 𝒑(𝒙; 𝝀𝒕),

𝒙=𝟎
For selected values of 𝜆𝑡 ranging from 0.1 to 18.0.

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Example 3.20
During the laboratory experiment, the average number of radioactive particles passing
through a counter in 1 millisecond is 4. What is the probability that 6 particles enter the
counter in a given millisecond?

Example 3.21
Ten is the average number of oil tankers arriving each day at a certain port. The facilities
at the port can handle at most 15 tankers per day. What is the probability that on a given
day tankers have to be turned away?

Theorem 3.4
Both the mean and the variance of the Poisson distribution 𝑝(𝑥; 𝜆𝑡) are 𝜆𝑡.

Nature of the Poisson Probability Function

Like so many discrete and continuous distributions, the form of the Poisson distribution
becomes more and more symmetric, even bell-shaped, as the mean grows large. The
figure below illustrates this, showing plots of the probability function for 𝜇 = 0.1, 𝜇 = 2, and
𝜇 = 5. Note the nearness to symmetry when 𝜇 becomes as large as 5.

Approximation of Binomial Distribution by a Poisson Distribution

It should be evident from the three principles of the Poisson process that the Poisson
distribution is related to the binomial distribution. Although the Poisson usually finds
applications in space and time problems, it can be viewed as a limiting form of the
binomial distribution. In the case of the binomial, if n is quite large and p is small, the
conditions begin to simulate the continuous space or time implications of the Poisson
process. The independence among Bernoulli trials in the binomial case is consistent with
principle 2 of the Poisson process. Allowing the parameter p to be close to 0 relates to
principle 3 of the Poisson process. Indeed, if n is large and p is close to 0, the Poisson
distribution can be used, with 𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝, to approximate binomial probabilities. If p is close

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 MATH 115 ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

to 1, we can still use the Poisson distribution to approximate binomial probabilities by

interchanging what we have defined to be a success and a failure, thereby changing p
to a value close to 0.

Theorem 3.5
Let X be a binomial random variable with probability distribution 𝑏(𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑝). When 𝑛 → ∞,
𝑛→∞
𝑝 → 0, and 𝑛𝑝 → 𝜇 remains constant,
𝒏→∞
𝒃(𝒙; 𝒏, 𝒑) → 𝒑(𝒙; 𝝁).

Example 3.22
In a certain construction site, accidents occur infrequently. It is known that the probability
of an accident on any given day is 0.005 and accidents are independent of each other.
a. What is the probability that in any given period of 400 days there will be an
accident on one day?
b. What is the probability that there are at most three days with an accident?

Example 3.23
In a manufacturing process where glass products are made, defects or bubbles occur,
occasionally rendering the piece undesirable for marketing. It is known that, on average,
1 in every 1000 of these items produced has one or more bubbles. What is the probability
that a random sample of 8000 will yield fewer than 7 items possessing bubbles?

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