CLIMATE TOPIC 2

How has Earth's climate changed over geological time?

- past 650k years → temps. and co2 levels in atmosphere have increased and decreased in
a cylical pattern → natural variability of Earth's climate
- scientists determine past climates of Earth by analysing sediments from seafloor and
oxygen isotopes
→ higher conc. of light oxygen (o-16 isotope) in ocean: Earth's climate is warmer
→ higher conc. of heavy oxygen (o-18 isotope) in ocean: Earth's climate is cooler

How has Earth's climate zones changed?

→ expanded and contracted over time
→ temp (most impt variable): used to determine if boundaries of climate zones have
changed
Ex:
→ 18k years ago, when Earth experienced cooler temps → glacial period → large ice sheets
were formed over continents near Arctic Ocean
→ when Earth began transitioning from glacial → interglacial period → began
experiencing warmer temps → continental ice sheets melted away
→ at present, with rising sea surface and air temps → has been found that the tropical
climate zone is expanding in coverage across the Earth

What are the natural causes of climate variability over time?

1. Changes in the Earth’s orbit and angle of tilt
- variations in Earth's orbit shape and tilt → affect incoming radiation from sun

Orbit shape Tilt

Process

The earth’s orbit stretches The earth’s axis varies back

from circular to an elliptical an forth between 21.5°C
shape and back again and 24.5°C

Cycle 100,000 years 41,000 years

Impact on Earth’s when Earth's orbit is most - when tilt decreases →

temperature elliptic → Earth will travel in hemispheres lean further
a more oval shape → more away from sun → warmer
radiation reaches Earth at winters, cooler summers →
 the planet's closest enables build up of large
approach to the sun, than ice sheets in higher
it does at the farthest latitudes → cool Earth
departure from the sun

2. Occurrences of sunspots
- higher sunspot activity → higher amts. of solar radiation emitted from sun
- sunspots have lower temps → hence areas surrounding the sunspots radiate more
energy → more solar radiation emitted from sun → higher temps on Earth
- generally, periods of max. sunspot activity corresponds to periods of high annual
surface temps. on Earth
- number of sunspot rises and falls in a cycle of approx. 11yrs
3. Large-scale volcanic
eruptions
- global temps. decrease after a
large volcanic eruption
1. volcanic eruption releases large
volumes of co2, water vapour,
sulfur dioxide, dust and ash into
the atmosphere
2. sulfur-based particles, dust
and ash spread around the lower
atmosphere area of Earth
3. particles absorb and reflect
solar energy back into space
4. this temporarily offsets the greenhouse effect → lowers temps until these particles
grow large enough and fall down to Earth
Ex: volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 → led to drop in global temp. of ~0.6°C
over 15 months after eruption

How has the Earth's climate changed in the past 200 years?
- changes due to anthropogenic & natural factors
- over last 30yrs, anthropogenic activities have produced 100x more co2 than natural
causes → unprecedented rise in global avg. temps
- anthropogenic causes: factors relating to, or resulting from the actions of ppl
- anthropogenic causes of climate change:
→ burning of fossil fuels
→ changing land use
- actions are fuelled by a growth in population & modern industrialisation → increase
greenhouse gases such as co2, methane, nitrous oxide in atmosphere
What is the greenhouse effect?
- natural process by which greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere trap longwave
radiation emitted from Earth's
surface
1. incoming solar radiation from sun
travels to Earth in the form of
shortwave radiation
2. most of it reaches Earth's surface
and is absorbed → warms surface
3. Remaining radiation is absorbed
or reflected by clouds in the
atmosphere
4. Earth's surface emits longwave
radiation which escapes towards
space
5. Some longwave radiation is absorbed & re-emitted by greenhouse gases in
atmosphere which warms Earth

What is the enhanced greenhouse effect?

- increased anthropogenic
activities → conc. of
atmospheric greenhouse
gases increased → enhanced
greenhouse effect → where
even more heat gets trapped →
increases global temps
- with more greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere → less heat
able to escape into space →
more heat radiated back
towards Earth’s surface →
increase Earth's temp →
threatens ecosystems and
people's ways of life

How do anthropogenic factors lead to enhanced greenhouse effect?

1. Burning of fossil fuels
- fossil fuels have high carbon content
- burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) → produces large amts of co2 & other
greenhouse gases → contributes to the enhanced greenhouse effect
- fossil fuels are burned to create energy for human activities such as agriculture,
industries, urbanisation
Ex: use of fossil fuels increased steeply since start of the industrial revolution in 1880s →
contributes to more than 35bil tonnes of co2 emissions per year
2. Changing land use - for agriculture, industries and urbanisation
- to create energy for agriculture → industries and urbanisation burn fossil fuels (coal, oil,
natural gas) → produce greenhouse gases → lead to enhanced greenhouse effect
1) Deforestation
- changing land use for agriculture, industries & urbanisation → involve large scale
deforestation → contributes to enhanced greenhouse effect
- large-scale removal of forests occur due to need for:
→ resources (eg. timber & wood to produce paper and building materials) for
industrialisation
→ land (eg. for urban development or agricultural needs)
- deforestation results in increased levels of co2 because:
→ reduces no. of trees that absorb co2 through photosynthesis
→ during photosynthesis → trees store carbon → when trees are cut down or burned →
stored carbon is released back into the atmosphere as co2
→ clearing of trees exposes the soil beneath to sunlight → increases soil temperature and
rate of carbon oxidation
→ carbon oxidation: process in which carbon (in soil) reacts with oxygen to produce
carbon dioxide
Ex: globally, tropical deforestation contributes to ~20% of annual greenhouse gas
emissions
2) Agriculture
- as populations grow → forests are cleared to make space for agriculture → meet rising
demand for food
- contributes to ~30% of global greenhouse gas emissions annually due to:
→ burning of fossil fuels to produce energy for farm machinery
→ nitrogen in chemical fertilisers converts to nitrous oxide
→ livestock rearing and natural decomposition processes release methane
Ex: in paddy rice fields, decomposition is rapid due to high amt. of moisture in soil →
contributes to 5-20% of total methane emissions
3) Industries
- fossil fuels are burned to generate energy to run the machinery and other factory
processes
- estimated that industries contribute ~43% of greenhouse gas emissions annually
4) Urbanisation
- in cities, fossil fuels are burned → power the high conc. of vehicles & household activities
such as heating, cooling and lighting
- cities consume ~78% of world’s energy and contribute significantly to the emission of
greenhouse gases

How might climate change impact natural systems?

1. Increases in atmospheric and ocean surface temperatures
- since start of the Industrial Revolution, Earth's atmospheric temp. has been increasing
- most of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases → absorbed by oceans
- avg. temps of oceans have been increasing → over the last century, sea surface has
warmed by slightly over 1°C (however, this increase is uneven as some parts of ocean will
warm faster and other parts will be cooler)
2. Changes to ocean circulation

- water in ocean is constantly

moving arnd the world
- large scale movement of
water: known as global ocean
circulation:
1. warm surface water moves
from the equator to the poles
due to winds
2. water cools → becomes
denser → sinks
3. cold water spreads along
bottom of the ocean → forms
cool subsurface flows
4. eventually, cool water rises
back towards surface of ocean

- climate change is expected to slow down global ocean circulation as:

1. water at surface gains heat due to rising atmospheric temps → becomes less dense
2. sinking of water at the poles → reduced → slows down flows of water
Ex: ocean current in Atlantic Ocean has slowed by ~15%
3. Changes in precipitation on land
- climate change is strengthening existing precipitation patterns. In general:
→ wet regions: expected to get wetter → due to increased precipitation → increase
occurrences of excessive rainfall
→ dry regions: expected to get drier → due to decreased precipitation → increase
occurrences of drought
1) Increased precipitation and occurrences of excessive rainfall
- warmer air → results in increased water vapour in atmosphere, especially in areas where
surface water (eg. rivers, lakes and seas) is present. This is due to:
→ warmer air being able to hold more water vapour
→ increased evaporation
- hence, in these areas, precipitation and the occurrences of excessive rainfall → expected
to increase
Ex: The Poles, parts of SEA and central Africa
2) Decreased precipitation, and increased occurrences of drought
- warmer atmospheric temps → increase evaporation → reduces surface water → dries out
soil & vegetation
- lack of moisture → reduce occurrence of rain
- areas with dry climate → dry seasons may get even drier → result in droughts
- droughts are more likely to occur in places which are already experiencing dry climates
eg. subtropics → place where most world’s deserts are located, and mid-latitudes
Ex: Southwest USA and parts of the Sahel region in Africa

How might climate change impact aquatic ecosystems?

1. Threats to coral reefs
- corals are highly fragile ecosystems & vulnerable to coral bleaching
- increase in ocean temperature → increase coral bleaching: when corals lose their colour
& become white as the algae living in them leave them
- bleached corals → more likely to die
1. Corals have symbiotic
relationships with algae that live in
them. These algare are the corals’
primary food source + gives them
their colour
2. Increased ocean temps → algae
that lives in corals leave them
3. Without algae → corals lose its
major source of food → turn white &
and are vulnerable to diseases →
may die
- When corals die → aquatic species
that depend on them lose their
food source & habitat → their
populations may decline → affect
other species that depend on
them → affect entire ecosystem

- coral reefs are expected to decline by up to 90% if ocean temps increase by 1.5°C
- coral reefs are home to millions of aquatic species eg. fish, seahorses, sea turtles
Ex:
→ Great Barrier Reef in Australia: severely affected in 2016 & 2017 due to rising sea temps
→ 2/3 corals died in northern section of reef → species diversity subsequently decreased
2. Ocean acidification
- oceans are impt natural carbon
sinks due to presence of
phytoplanktons → photosynthesise →
absorb co2
- increase in co2 emissions → oceans
absorb excessive amts of co2 →
carbonic acids form in water →
making oceans acidic
Ex: since the Industrial Revolution (1800s) → ocean acidity increased by 25%
- carbonic acids dissolve calcium carbonate → which is needed by aquatic organisms eg.
corals, mussels & oysters to form their skeletons and shells
- at current rates, coral reefs are eroding faster than new corals can form
- as coral skeletons shrink → species that depend on them for food, habitat & shelter from
predators → negatively affected → may go extinct
Ex: avg. coral cover in Great Barrier Reef dropped to ~30% of what it was in the 1960s, in
part due to ocean acidification
3. Disruption of marine food webs
1) Slowing down of global ocean circulation
- ocean circulation transports heat from tropics → poles & allows for exchange of nutrients
between surface and deep waters
- ocean circulation slowing down → reduces sinking of water at poles → warm surface
water mixes less with cooler, deeper water
- this separates near-surface aquatic life eg. phytoplanktons from nutrients below →
cause drop in photosynthesis
- species higher up in food chain which feed on phytoplanktons eg. fish, whales → lack of
food → entire ecosystem and its food webs are negatively affected
2) Increase in ocean surface temperatures
Changes in geographic distribution of
aquatic species:
- due to warming oceans → aquatic species
migrate to areas with more favourable
temps (generally, polewards & deeper,
cooler waters)
- will cause:
→ equatorial regions: decrease in
biodiversity
→ poleward regions: increase in biodiversity
Ex:
→ tropical species (eg. parrotfish,
rabbitfish) → migrated polewards
- diversity of species in tropical waters dropped significantly in last 50 years
Changes in composition of aquatic ecosystems
- geographic distribution of species changes → mix of prey, predators, competitors in
ecosystem changes → disrupts existing food webs → changes aquatic ecosystems
- changes:
→ some species will flourish & others will not
→ some might find an abundance of suitable sources of food → increase population
→ some might not find suitable sources of food → decrease population
Ex:
→ tropical fish such as parrotfish & rabbitfish → migrated to cooler waters in Japan &
Australia
→ these species feed on kep in these cooler waters → cause huge decline in kelp → affects
other species that depend on kelp for food & protection from predators (eg. lobsters &
abalone) → population decline
- species that are unable to migrate (eg. corals) or move fast enough → unable to adapt to
higher sea temps → environment becomes unsuitable for them & their habitats + food
sources disappear → face local or global extinction

How might climate change impact terrestrial ecosystems?

1. Threats to flora and fauna
1) Increase in atmospheric temperatures
Changes in geographic distribution of terrestrial species
- in general, terrestrial species are migrating towards higher latitudes & altitudes → cooler
temps
Ex:
→ ~170 species of birds tracked in NA have expanded their range northwards by 50km
avg. during past 4 decades
→ temperate forests: advancing northwards → replacing boreal forests
→ boreal forests: advancing northwards → tundra
Changes in composition of terrestrial ecosystems
- geographic distribution of species changes → mix and population densities of prey,
predators, competitors in ecosystem changes → disrupts existing food webs → changes
terrestrial communities
- changes:
→ some species will decline as they cannot find new suitable habitats to migrate to
• mountain species which prefer cold environments might not have anywhere to go if
the top of mountains are too warm for them → face competition with species from lower
altitudes moving upwards → likely to face greater rates of extinction
→ plant species cannot move → will decline if they are not able to adapt fast enough
→ some species will flourish → migrate to new habitats
Ex:
→ in Australia, wallabies are migrating to higher altitudes → found herbfields in mountains
a suitable source of food → flourished
→ however, their overgrazing threatens to reduce these herbfields to grassy lawns
→ other species that depend on these herbfields eg. broad-toothed rats → face greater
competition→ higher risk of extinction
2) Impact of droughts on flora and fauna
- plants are vulnerable to droughts as they are not able to move elsewhere to get water
- during droughts → wither and die
- drier, weakened plants → more vulnerable to diseases and insect attacks
Ex: droughts in Cali, US (2012-2016): contributed to death of 102mil forest trees → due to
lack of water + spread of diseases
- when trees die → habitats are damaged & food supplies decline
- some terrestrial species cannot adapt → extinct → loss of biodiversity
- droughts may:
→ force animal species to move to new locations in search of water, food habitat → spread
of diseases (cholera) → which thrive in dry and warm conditions
Ex: droughts in Cali, US: dried up many wetlands → many insects, fish, plants died →
migratory birds also starved to death
- these threats to terrestrial species → result in loss of biodiversity
3) Impact of excessive rainfall on flora and fauna
- intense rainfall → lead to floods, destroy habitats → causes terrestrial species to drown
and die
Ex: Assam, India: excessive rainfall in 2020 → floods → >200 wild animals killed

How does climate change directly and indirectly impact humans?

Direct impacts Indirect impacts

- with climate change → extreme weather - affects provisioning ecosystem services

events occur more often or with greater including food production
intensity → loss of human lives, increased - affects regulating ecosystem services
poverty, destruction of properties including disease regulation
- extreme weather events - alters cultural ecosystem services
Ex: including melting of arctic ice &
→ heat waves degradation of natural landscapes
→ droughts
→ floods
→ tropical cyclones
→ wildfires

Why are impacts of climate change on human systems uneven?

- impacts are unevenly experienced across world due to:
→ varying climate variables of place
• places with different climate variables (eg. temp. & precipitation) → respond differently
to climate change
Ex:
• Central Australia which is usually dry → expected to become even drier due to climate
change
• India which receives intense precipitation during monsoon season → expected to see
more precipitation & intense flooding
→ different local social and economic factors such as level of economic development
• developing country → take longer to recover → due to lack of financial resources →
prolong economic losses as compared to developed country

How does climate change lead to more extreme weather events?

- climate change increases the severity or frequency of extreme weather events
a) heat waves
b) droughts
c) floods
d) wildfires
e) tropical cyclones

a) Heat waves
How does climate change cause more severe & frequent heat waves?
- heat wave: a period of excessively hot weather that is abnormal, usually lasting for
several days or longer.Temperatures of heatwaves could be as high as over 40°C
- climate change leads to higher temperatures → making heat waves more intense and
more frequent
Direct impacts on humans
- people may suffer from heat stroke, difficulties in
breathing and death
- heat waves have caused thousands of deaths worldwide
- high temperatures → deplete the soil moisture → lead to widespread crop failures →
affect food supply
Ex:
2003 heat wave that hit Europe:
○ ~70,000 people died from the heat
wave which lasted for two weeks
○ the harvest for agricultural crops such as
wheat, a staple crop, was also affected → many crops died → increased the price of bread
significantly → food became less
affordable for people

b) Droughts
How does climate change cause more severe & frequent droughts?
- drought: when an area or region experiences a lack of precipitation, such as rain or
snow, for an extended period of time → result in water shortage
- warmer atmospheric temperatures due to climate change → increase evaporation →
reduces surface water and dries out soil and vegetation
- areas with dry climate → dry seasons may get even drier → result in droughts
- droughts are more likely to occur in places which are already experiencing dry climates
such as the subtropics, where most of the world's deserts are located, and the
mid-latitudes
Direct impacts on humans
- shortage of clean water → lead to dehydration and death
- ack of water → cause crop failure → people may die from hunger or be malnourished
- people may be displaced (forced to leave their homes usually due to a sudden impact,
such as a natural disaster or conflict)
○ It is estimated that 700 million people are at
risk of being displaced by drought by 2030
Ex:
2018-2019 drought in Afghanistan:
○ affected more than two-thirds of the county
○ over ten million people were affected due to a lack of food, and many were displaced

c) Wildfires
How does climate change cause more severe & frequent wildfires?
- wildfires: unplanned and uncontrolled fires that burn in natural areas such as forests or
grasslands
- climate change causes warmer and drier conditions → lead to more dead trees and
vegetation → making it easier for wildfires to start and harder to put out
Direct impacts on humans
- suffocation, injuries, and burns
- large amounts of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and fine particulate matter →
released into the atmosphere → air pollution → lead to respiratory illnesses and deaths
- destruction of buildings and property → lead to homelessness and economic losses
Ex:
2019 - 2020 wildfires in Australia:
○ widespread fires that affected the entire continent
○ difficult to get the fires under control due to persistent hot and dry conditions induced
by climate change
○ air quality was hazardous and was a human health risk
→ in Sydney, the air quality measured 11x greater than what is set as a hazardous level
○ in total, 34 people died and thousands of buildings were burnt down
○ many people were left homeless due to the wildfires