«Kazakhstan’s Leader Makes Neutrality an Art: Tokayev is maximizing his

opportunities by balancing Russia, China, and the West» σε Foreign Policy, 7th
November 2023

President Kassym - Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan is redefining the Great Game as an

opportunistic obstacle course, testing his own survival skills to future-proof his country
against joining Ukraine as a victim of Russia’s irredentist urges. As leader of the biggest and
richest of the independent states in Russia’s Central Asian orbit, Tokayev has elevated
pragmatic neutrality to an art form, so far keeping everyone happy - as long as they don’t
look too closely at the fine print.

Regional analysts praised Tokayev for his ability to straddle the line between Russia’s need
to keep its economy, and specifically its military-industrial sector, ticking over, while
adhering to the sanctions imposed on Moscow by the United States and the European Union
following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Stuck in the middle, he seems to be
making all the right moves, as Kazakhstan’s economy is booming and he’s being courted by
all the big players.

«Kazakhstan understands the needs of the main actors and is doing its best to please everyone
and not come under the sanctions», Dimash Alzhanov, an independent political analyst based
in Kazakhstan’s largest city, and former capital, Almaty, told Foreign Policy. «Kazakhstan
needs access to the international financial system, and it needs to sell oil to Western markets,
and to do that it needs to keep Western countries onside».

It also needs to keep Russia onside. Kazakhstan has not recognized Russian claims to
Ukraine, which began with the 2014 annexation of Crimea and occupation of the Donbas.
Surveys have revealed rising concerns since the invasion of Ukraine among Kazakhstan’s 20
million people that Russia could take advantage of historical claims along their shared border
to grab oil-rich northern territory. Tokayev has to keep everyone happy just to keep standing
still.

The war in Ukraine has reignited a rush to Central Asia by Russia, China, and the United
States, all eyeing some of the world’s richest oil, gas, and uranium resources in states that
won their independence with the collapse of the Soviet Union. While still very much in
Moscow’s orbit, Kazakhstan has proved adept at maximizing economic opportunities from
both China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative and American Big Oil.

Tokayev’s request to Moscow for help in quelling riots, in January 2022, confirmed
Moscow’s role as kingmaker and strategic partner, an adroit Russia - pleasing move that
analysts said provides the back beat to the Kazakh leader’s nimble diplomatic dance. In the
past month - plus, Tokayev has reassured German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Kazakhstan
will not be a sanctions buster. But he also traveled to Moscow to help Russian President
Vladimir Putin celebrate his birthday, on Oct. 7, by inaugurating a pipeline to pump Russian
gas to Uzbekistan via Kazakhstan. They met again for a summit on Oct. 13 in Bishkek, the
capital of Kyrgyzstan, on Putin’s first known trip outside Russia since the International
Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for his arrest in March. And both were in attendance
in Beijing last month for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s celebration of the Belt and Road
Initiative, which he’d unveiled in Kazakhstan a decade ago (Neither China, Russia, nor
Kyrgyzstan is a member of the ICC).

Tokayev’s dance card might be full, but he’s running the risk of stepping on Putin’s toes in
pretty much the same way Ukraine did, by publicly courting closer ties with the European
Union, the United States, and NATO. Kazakhstan and the EU have begun talking about
relaxed visa requirements for Kazakh citizens. Central Asian and EU foreign ministers met
last month in Luxembourg to reaffirm cooperation on a long list of issues, including «the
importance of the prevention of sanctions circumvention».

The U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Daniel Rosenblum, cut the ribbon on Oct. 23 on a
«peacekeeping operations center» in Almaty described by the U.S. Embassy’s Facebook page
as «the latest project supported by the United States to enhance Kazakhstan’s capacity to train
international peacekeepers». The United States was «proud to partner with Kazakhstan to
support security, prosperity, and peace» it said. The following day, Oct. 24, U.S. Secretary of
State Antony Blinken wished the country well for its Republic Day, saying he looked
«forward to partnering together on global challenges to advance our shared priorities of
peace, prosperity, and stability for the benefit of both our countries’ peoples».

On Nov. 6, Kazakhstan and the United States kicked off their annual enhanced strategic
partnership dialogue, building on President Joe Biden’s Central Asian summit at the U.N. in
September, and announced further cooperation on everything from counterterrorism to trade
and sanctions and even human rights. Donald Lu, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for
South and Central Asian affairs, «reaffirmed the United States’ unwavering support for
Kazakhstan’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity».

Despite being the most popular country on the Central Asian block now, Kazakhstan hasn’t
gotten a pass on human rights, as the State Department noted «significant» abuses, according
to a 2022 report, that included unlawful or arbitrary killing and torture «by or on behalf of the
government», arbitrary detention, political prisoners, «serious problems with the
independence of the judiciary», restrictions on free assembly and expression, media, and
internet access. The report also logged «serious government corruption; significant
restrictions on workers’ freedom of association; and existence of child labor». More recently,
Freedom House awarded Kazakhstan a dismal score of 23 out of 100 on its global freedom
index for 2023 and declared the country «not free».

But realpolitik is trumping rights; domestic repression has become a lesser evil than the risk
of Kazakhstan swinging back toward Moscow. «Τhe West has become more cooperative, and
talks less about human and civil rights in Kazakhstan», Alzhanov said.