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Sesa Goa: Performance Highlights
Sesa Goa: Performance Highlights
Sesa Goa
Performance Highlights
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 1QFY12 % chg (qoq)
`206 `232
12 months
Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT
2QFY12
2QFY11
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 2QFY2012, Sesa Goa (Sesa) reported a 14.0% yoy decline in its net sales to `790cr, lower than our estimate of `1,125cr on account of lower-than-expected iron ore sales volumes. Adjusted PAT at `235cr was also below our estimate of `517cr. We recommend Accumulate on the stock. Lower sales volume impacts 2QFY2012 performance: For 2QFY2012, Sesas net sales decreased by 14.0% yoy to `790cr on account of a 23.0% yoy decline in iron ore sales volumes to 1.5mn tonnes. Iron ore realization increased by 14.4% yoy to US$84/tonne. Export duty increased by 65.5% yoy to `87cr in 2QFY2012, as the government had raised export duty on iron ore to 20.0% in February 2011. Thus, EBITDA fell by 23.5% yoy to `260cr and EBITDA margin slipped by 408bp yoy, as higher iron ore realization was more than offset by increased export duty. The company reported an exceptional item related to forex loss of `234cr in 2QFY2012. Accordingly, PAT fell to `1cr in 2QFY2012 compared to `385cr in 2QFY2011. Excluding the exceptional item, adjusted PAT decreased by 32.2% yoy to `235cr (below our estimate of `322cr). Outlook and valuation: Despite the recent correction in spot iron ore prices, we expect international iron ore prices to remain firm in the medium term, as we expect additional meaningful supplies to hit the sea-borne market only from CY2014. We believe the current stock price discounts negatives such as acquisition of a minority stake in the unrelated oil business via acquisition of Cairn Indias stake, increased export duty and railway freight and lower volumes from Goa mines. We recommend Accumulate on the stock with an SOTP-based target price of `232. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg FDEPS (`) OPM (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 55.1 5.2 23.8 15.9
3m
1yr
3yr 98.7
(6.6) (14.5)
FY2010
5,858 18.1 2,629 32.2 29.6 53.7 7.0 2.2 41.6 41.7 4.3 8.0
FY2011
9,205 57.1 4,222 60.6 47.5 56.5 4.3 1.4 40.7 42.9 3.0 5.4
FY2012E
7,979 (13.3) 2,621 (37.9) 29.5 45.2 7.0 1.2 18.7 21.1 2.0 4.5
FY2013E
9,073 13.7 2,934 11.9 33.0 45.2 6.2 1.0 17.7 19.4 2.0 4.4
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821 Bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
2QFY12
2QFY11
yoy (%)
1QFY12
qoq (%)
790 100 12.7 72 9.1 63 7.9 87 11.0 94 11.9 530 67.1 260 32.9 52 24 50 (234) 0.4 (1) 1 0.2 235
918 55 6.0 61 6.7 47 5.1 53 5.7 366 39.8 579 63.0 340 37.0 14 19 100 407 44.3 19 4.6 385 41.9 347
(14.0) 81.5 17.2 34.2 65.5 (74.4) (8.4) (23.5) 268.4 25.2 (49.8) (99.9) (104.8) (99.7) (32.2)
2,109 76 3.6 91 4.3 55 2.6 345 16.4 404 19.2 963 45.7 1,146 54.3 49 27 152 1,222 57.9 381 31.2 841 49.3 841
(62.6) 32.5 (21.2) 14.6 (74.7) (76.8) (45.0) (77.3) 4.7 (9.6) (66.9) (100.0) (100.2) (99.8) (72.0)
(mn tonne)
5 4 3 2 1 0
60 50 40
(%)
(` cr)
40 30 20 10 0
800 600 400 200 0 2QFY10 4QFY10 Adj. PAT (LHS) 2QFY11 4QFY11 2QFY12 Net profit margin (LHS)
30 20 10 0
Outlook
Crude steel consumption in China is expected to rise
According to China Iron and Steel Association data, Chinas steel production in CY2011 is expected to increase by 6.0% yoy over the coming five years. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences expects Chinese crude steel production to reach 674mn tonnes (+7.5% yoy) in CY2011.
(mn tonnes)
(%)
(US $/tonne)
Dec-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
May-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Jun-11
(mn tonnes)
20 10 0
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Dec-10
Iron ore imports by China from India Iron ore imports by China from Australia Iron ore imports by China from Brazil
Mar-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
(mn tonnes)
30
Valuation
Despite the recent correction in spot iron ore prices, we expect international iron ore prices to remain firm in the medium term, as we expect additional meaningful supplies to hit the sea-borne market only from CY2014. We believe the current stock price discounts negatives such as acquisition of a minority stake in the unrelated oil business via acquisition of Cairn Indias stake, increased export duty and railway freight and lower volumes from Goa mines. We value Sesa at 3.0x FY2013 EV/EBITDA and Sesas stake in Cairn India at a 75% discount to the current market price. Thus, we derive a target price of `232/share and recommend Accumulate on the stock. A key catalyst for the stock would be commencement of production and sales from its Karnataka mine. We have lowered our sales volumes estimates for FY2012E, considering lower-than-expected sales volume during 2QFY2012. Hence, our profitability estimates are also reduced for FY2012E.
Earlier estimates FY12E 8,711 4,041 46.4 4,169 2,960 34.0 FY13E 10,012 4,615 46.1 4,750 3,325 33.2
Revised estimates FY12E 7,979 3,605 45.2 3,692 2,621 32.9 FY13E 9,073 4,099 45.2 4,191 2,934 32.3
Upgrade/(downgrade) (%) FY12E (8.4) (10.8) (121)bp (11.4) (11.4) (112)bp FY13E (9.4) (11.2) (92)bp (11.8) (11.8) (87)bp
Variation (%)
(25.6) (24.2)
358 232 -
13 -
9.1 3.6
4.5
8.0 3.0
4.4
37.5 21.2
18.7
31.2 19.6
17.7
34.9 23.8
21.1
29.2 21.6
19.4
8.3
6.7
32.3
29.3
40.5
36.7
(` cr)
(`)
300 200 100 0 Jan-04 Feb-05 Mar-06 Apr-07 May-08 3x 6x 9x Jun-09 Jul-10 12x Aug-11
(`)
2.0x 1.0x
2x
3x
87 15,212 15,298 3,937 68 19,304 4,265 745 3,519 429 12,123 4,242 1,893 1,322 1,028 1,009 3,233 19,304
87 17,701 17,787 3,937 68 21,793 5,265 855 4,410 79 12,123 6,277 3,762 1,322 1,193 1,096 5,181 21,793
3,692 96 (303) 1,071 2,414 (900) (3,323) (4,223) 2,938 133 2,804 996 897 1,893
4,191 109 (79) 1,257 2,964 (650) (650) 445 (445) 1,870 1,893 3,762
10
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book value DuPont analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (post-tax) Cost of debt Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC (pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset T/o (gross block) Inventory (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC capital (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
10.4 10.1 5.5 1.1 4.8 7.9 6.0 19.7 19.7 20.3 2.3 37.4 58.9 66.6 4.4 172.0 172.0 96.2 264.5 68.0 5.1 234 35 102 53 (0.7) (0.9)
8.1 7.9 3.4 1.1 3.9 7.6 4.0 25.3 25.3 25.9 2.3 59.9 50.2 73.6 3.8 142.2 142.2 63.9 198.5 51.9 6.0 213 28 170 33 (1.3) (2.5)
7.0 6.3 2.2 1.6 4.3 8.0 2.5 31.6 29.6 32.5 3.3 95.3 52.5 76.6 2.5 101.6 101.6 41.7 136.3 41.6 3.2 261 20 351 12 (1.5) (3.7)
4.3 4.2 1.4 2.4 3.0 5.4 2.0 49.1 47.5 48.5 5.0 144.0 55.5 75.9 6.1 258.4 258.4 42.9 465.4 40.7 3.2 265 20 403 7 (1.4) (3.6)
7.0 6.7 1.2 0.7 2.0 4.5 0.8 29.5 29.5 30.5 1.5 172.0 44.0 71.0 0.7 23.3 23.3 21.1 34.7 18.7 2.2 270 24 250 18 (0.7) (2.8)
6.2 6.0 1.0 2.4 2.0 4.4 0.8 33.0 33.0 34.2 5.0 199.9 44.0 70.0 0.4 12.9 12.9 19.4 18.6 17.7 1.9 270 24 250 23 (0.7) (2.9)
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Sesa Goa No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
12