Grupo: 100402_17

Tutor: Johny Roberto Rodriguez Perez

Universidad nacional Abierta y a Distancia – UNAD

Escuela de ciencias básicas, tecnología e ingeniería – ECBTI
Ingeniería de sistemas
2023
 Tabla comparativa
Concepto Definición Variable, Formula o Imagen que
representa el concepto

Teoría de conjuntos Set theory is a branch of

mathematics that studies the
properties and relationships
between sets, which are
collections of elements.

Teoría de Probability theory is a branch of

probabilidad mathematics that studies
uncertainty and random events. It
focuses on measuring and
predicting the probability of
specific events occurring.

Enfoque empírico The empirical approach is a

research methodology that relies
on direct observation and the
collection of verifiable data. It
focuses on evidence obtained
through experience and
observation of real-world
phenomena. Data is collected
objectively to make inferences
and draw conclusions. It is used
in scientific disciplines to
understand and study
phenomena.
Enfoque subjetivo The subjective approach is a
perspective or research
methodology that is based on
personal experience and
individual perceptions. It focuses
on understanding and analyzing
phenomena from the subjective
viewpoint of participants or
subjects of study.
Experimento An experiment refers to a
controlled and reproducible
process conducted to observe and
analyze the outcomes of an
uncertain event. This event can
have multiple possible outcomes,
 and the experiment allows
determining the probability of
each of them occurring.

Espacio muestral The sample space refers to the

set of all possible outcomes of a
random experiment. It is the set
of elementary events that can
occur in a given experiment.
Each element of the sample
space represents a unique and
indivisible outcome. The sample
space can be finite or infinite,
depending on the nature of the
experiment.
Punto muestral A sample point is a specific
outcome or individual
observation within the sample
space of a random experiment. It
represents an elementary event
that can occur in the experiment.
Each sample point is a unique
and indivisible element within
the set of possible outcomes.
Evento simple A simple event is an event that
represents a single outcome
within the sample space of a
random experiment. It is an
elementary event that cannot be
further decomposed into smaller
events.
Evento conjunto A joint event is the combination
of two or more individual events
in an experiment. It represents
the simultaneous or joint
occurrence of these events. The
joint event consists of the
outcomes that satisfy both
conditions or individual events.
Técnicas de conteo Counting techniques are methods
used to count or determine the
number of possibilities or
combinations in a counting
problem. These techniques
include the multiplication
 principle and the addition
principle.

Diagrama de árbol An tree diagram is a graphical

representation used to visualize
and organize possible outcomes
in an experiment or counting
problem. It is used to illustrate
the different branches of
possibilities and the probabilities
associated with each outcome.
Each branch of the tree
represents a subsequent option or
event in the process.
Factorial The factorial is a mathematical
function denoted by the symbol
"!" and is used to calculate the
product of all positive integers
from 1 up to a given number.

Principio aditivo The additive principle is a

concept used in combinatorics
and probability to count the total
number of options in a scenario
where mutually exclusive paths
can be chosen. It is applied by
summing the possibilities in each
case or scenario.
Principio The multiplicative principle is a
multiplicativo concept used in combinatorics
and probability to count the total
number of options in a scenario
where multiple independent and
successive decisions must be
made. It is applied by
multiplying the possibilities at
each stage.
Permutaciones Permutations are ordered
arrangements of elements taken
from a given set. They represent
all possible ways in which the
elements can be organized
without repetition.
Combinaciones Combinations are groupings of
elements taken from a set
regardless of the order in which
they are selected. They represent
the different ways in which
subsets can be chosen without
repetition.
Eventos Mutually exclusive events are
mutuamente events that cannot occur at the
excluyentes same time. If one event occurs,
then the other event cannot occur
simultaneously. There are no
common elements between them.

Eventos Independent events are events

independientes that have no influence or
relationship with each other. The
occurrence or non-occurrence of
one event does not affect the
probability of the other event.

Probabilidad Conditional probability is the

condicional probability that an event will
occur given that another event
has already occurred. It is
calculated by dividing the joint
probability of the two events by
the probability of the
conditioning event.
Teorema de Bayes Bayes' theorem is a fundamental
principle in probability theory
that allows for updating the
probability of an event given new
information. It is based on
conditional probability and
establishes a relationship
between the inverse and direct
conditional probabilities of two
events.
 Actividad 2. Ejercicios de aplicacion.

Desarrollo del literal B

Contextualization general:

Un estudiante de la UNAD matrícula 4 cursos en el primer periodo académico, Lógica

Matemática, Cátedra Unadista, Herramientas digitales y competencias comunicativas. Un
estudiante por curso pasa por dos momentos, en el 75% comprendido por trabajos y
lecciones evaluativas, denominado momento I y el 25% correspondiente a un trabajo o
examen final, nombrado momento II. Con esto el estudiante tiene la posibilidad de aprobar
o reprobar un curso.

Por algunos problemas académicos durante el periodo de estudio, los momentos I y II, no
pudieron desarrollarse como se planeó. Para estos casos se debe construir un diagrama de
árbol y hallar el espacio muestral que defina todas las posibles ternas ordenadas (Curso,
Aprobación del Momento I, Aprobación del Momento II) y a partir de esta información:

B) Representar usando la notación anterior el evento B= “El estudiante apruebe el momento

II en todos los cursos”

LG: Lógica Matemática

CU: Catedra Unadista
HD: Herramientas Digitales
CC: Competencias comunicativas
A1: Aprobado en el primer momento
R: Reprobado

Diagrama de árbol
 A2
A1
R2
LG
A2
R1
R2
A2
A1
R2
CU
A2
R1
R2
S
A2
A1
R2
HD
A2
R1
R2
A2
A1
R2
CC
A2
R1
R2

Definición del espacio muestral

𝑆 =𝐴𝑥𝐵𝑥𝐶

𝐴=4
𝐵=2
𝐶=2
𝑆 =4𝑥2𝑥2
𝑺 = 𝟏𝟔

𝑆 = { (𝐿𝐺, 𝐴1, 𝐴2), (𝐿𝐺, 𝐴1, 𝑅2), (𝐿𝐺, 𝑅1, 𝐴2), (𝐿𝐺, 𝑅1, 𝑅2), (𝐶𝑈, 𝐴1, 𝐴2),
(𝐶𝑈, 𝐴1, 𝑅2), (𝐶𝑈, 𝑅1, 𝐴2), (𝐶𝑈, 𝑅1,2), (𝐻𝐷, 𝐴1, 𝐴2), (𝐻𝐷, 𝐴1, 𝑅2), (𝐻𝐷, 𝑅1, 𝐴2),
(𝐻𝐷, 𝑅1, 𝑅2), (𝐶𝐶, 𝐴1, 𝐴2), (𝐶𝐶, 𝐴1, 𝑅2), (𝐶𝐶, 𝑅1, 𝐴2), (𝐶𝐶, 𝑅1, 𝑅2) }

B= “El estudiante apruebe el momento II en todos los cursos”

𝐵 = {(𝐿𝐺, 𝐴1, 𝐴2), (𝐿𝐺, 𝑅1, 𝐴2)(𝐶𝑈, 𝐴1, 𝐴2), (𝐶𝑈, 𝑅1, 𝐴2), (𝐻𝐷, 𝐴1, 𝐴2)
, (𝐻𝐷, 𝑅1, 𝐴2), (𝐶𝐶, 𝐴1, 𝐴2), (𝐶𝐶, 𝑅1, 𝐴2)}

Ejercicio 2. Conceptos básicos de Probabilidad

Teniendo en cuenta que los cursos de la UNAD con mayor índice de reprobación son los cursos de
lógica matemática y Herramientas digitales, respectivamente, con una probabilidad aprobación en el
momento I del curso de lógica matemática es de 0.45, mientras que la probabilidad de reprobar el
momento I del curso de herramientas digitales es de 0.52. En el momento II se encontró que la
probabilidad de aprobar en el curso de lógica matemática es de 0.6 mientras que la probabilidad de
reprobar en el curso de herramientas es del 0.35.
Traduzca al lenguaje simbólico apropiado, aplique enunciando las propiedades de la probabilidad
que permiten abordar el problema y utilice una calculadora o GeoGebra para realizar los cálculos y
obtener la probabilidad solicitada en cada uno de los ítems siguientes.

b. Determine la probabilidad de aprobar, en el momento I, lógica matemática o herramientas

digitales si la probabilidad de aprobar ambos es de 0.4.

Desarrollo

L = “Aprobación del curso de Lógica matemática”

𝑃(𝐿) = 0.45

H = “Aprobación del curso de Herramientas digitales”

𝑃(𝐻 ′ ) = 0.52
𝑃(𝐻) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐻 ′ ) = 1 − 0.52 = 0.48

𝑃(𝐿 ∪ 𝐻) = 𝑃(𝐿) + 𝑃(𝐻) − 𝑃(𝐿 ∩ 𝐻)

𝑃(𝐿 ∪ 𝐻) = 0.45 + 0.48 − 0.4

𝑷(𝑳 ∪ 𝑯) = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟑 = 𝟓𝟑%

Comprobación:

La probabilidad de aprobar lógica matemática o herramientas digitales en el momento I es de 53%

Bibliografía

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Gamero Burón, C. (2017). Estadística I: elementos de estadística descriptiva y de teoría de la

probabilidad. (pp 21-73, 223-233, 236-251). Servicio de Publicaciones y Divulgación
Científica de la Universidad de Málaga.
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Obando López, J. y Arango Londoño, N. (2019). Probabilidad y estadística. Fondo Editorial

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