International Journal of Ecology & Development

Year 2021; Volume 36, Issue No. 1; Int. J. Ecol. Dev.

ISSN 0972-9984 ( Print ); ISSN 0973-7308 (Online)
Copyright © 2021 by International Journal of Ecology & Development

6WDELOLW\DQG+RSI%LIXUFDWLRQ$QDO\VLVRID'HOD\HG
6(,60RGHO

0DGKXVXGKDQ5HGG\./DNVKPL1DUD\DQ.DQG5DYLQGUD5HGG\%


'HSDUWPHQWRI0DWKHPDWLFV9DUGKDPDQ&ROOHJHRI(QJLQHHULQJ
+\GHUDEDG,1',$
(PDLONPVUHGG\YFH#JPDLOFRP


'HSDUWPHQWRI0DWKHPDWLFV9LG\D-\RWKL,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\
+\GHUDEDG,1',$
(PDLOQDUD\DQNXQGHUX#\DKRRFRP

'HSDUWPHQWRI0DWKHPDWLFV-178+&ROOHJHRI(QJLQHHULQJ

+\GHUDEDG,1',$
(PDLOUEROODUHGG\#JPDLOFRP

$%675$&7

A delayed SEIS model with saturated incidence rate has been investigated in this paper. The stability
of equilibria was analyzed with and without delay. Hopf bifurcation analysis was carried out under
certain conditions. Employing Lyapunov functional technique, the global stability pertaining to the
endemic equilibrium was made clear contextually. To illustrate the theoretical analysis, some
numerical simulations of the model have been incorporated.

.H\ZRUGV+RSIELIXUFDWLRQWLPHGHOD\VDWXUDWHGLQFLGHQFHUDWHJOREDOVWDELOLW\

0DWKHPDWLFV6XEMHFW&ODVVLILFDWLRQ%''*'&

-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF/LWHUDWXUH&ODVVLILFDWLRQ&&



 ,1752'8&7,21

,QIHFWLRXVGLVHDVHVFRQWLQXHWRSODJXHKXPDQLW\DQGDUHRQHRIWKHPDLQFDXVHVRIGHDWKLQKXPDQV
7KHSUHOLPLQDU\ DLPRIWKLVUHVHDUFK LQ HSLGHPLRORJ\ LV WR GHYHORS YDFFLQHV WUHDWPHQWV DQG
LQWHUYHQWLRQVWUDWHJLHVIRUKDOWLQJRUVORZLQJGRZQWKHGLVVHPLQDWLRQRILQIHFWLRXVGLVHDVHVDQGKHQFH
UHGXFLQJWKHQXPEHURUIUHTXHQF\RIGHDWKV>@0DWKHPDWLFDOPRGHOVKDYHDQLQGLVSHQVDEOHUROH
WRSOD\LQWKHLQYHVWLJDWLRQRIHSLGHPLFVIRUUHOHYDQWWKHRUHWLFDOUHVXOWV$IHZGLVHDVHVKRZHYHUOLYH
DQGIORXULVKLQWKHKRVWVIRUORQJSHULRGVSULRUWRWKHKRVWVEHFRPLQJFRQWDJLRXV>@6RPHUHVHDUFKHUV
FRQVLGHUHGDFODVVRI6,56,6 PRGHOVDQGGLVFXVVHGWKHLUVWDELOLW\>@)RUVRPHLQIHFWLRXV
GLVHDVHV  VXFK DV  &29,' 7%  JRQRUUKHD ZLWK  D ODWHQW SHULRG  WKH H[SRVHG  FODVV  PXVW
QHFHVVDULO\EHUHFNRQHGZLWKWRIDFLOLWDWHWKHLQYHVWLJDWLRQRI6(,56(,6FRPSDUWPHQWDOPRGHOVKDYH
EHHQLQYHVWLJDWHG7KHUHKDVEHHQPDVVLYHUHVHDUFKRQPRGHOVRIVXFKW\SHVLQWKHOLWHUDWXUH>
@0HQJHWDO>@GLVFXVVHGWKHG\QDPLFVDQGWKHUDSHXWLFDSSURDFKRIDQ6(,6PRGHOZLWKODWHQW

ISSN 0972-9984 ( Print ); ISSN 0973-7308 (Online)

www.ceser.in/ceserp
www.ceserp.com/cp-jour
 International Journal of Ecology & Development

patients and active patients. An SEIS model with time delay representing the latent period was
investigated by Xu [16].

2. MATHEMATICAL MODEL

This paper addresses an SEIS model in which the total population is classified into three categories:
susceptible S , exposed E , and infectious I . The growth of the susceptibles is governed by
the logistic equation with carrying capacity N and intrinsic birth rate r. The incidence rate
incorporated in our model is of saturated type, which is introduced by Capasso and Serio [1]. Time
delay (W ) is factored in only in exposed class, bearing in mind that a number of contagious diseases
display a delayed commencement of transmission, i.e., the moment an individual shows symptoms of
infection, it takes quite a time before it begins to infect others. There does exist a period identified
as latent period before the diseased condition begins to manifest its impact on others and the
model in contemplation room for this occurrence. This model in particular is visualized using the
framework composed of equations that figure below:
dS E SI
rS 1  S   dS  J I
dt N 1D I
dE E SI (2.1)
 (d  X ) E (t  W )
dt 1  D I
dI X E (t  W )  (d  J ) I
dt
where E denotes the transmission rate, d is the natural death rate of the population, X is the rate at
which the exposed individuals becomes infectious, J is the rate at which infected individuals face
susceptibility yet again after a tranquil period of temporary immunity and D is a non-negative constant
that measures the inhibitory effect.

Theorem 1. All the solutions of system (2.1) are eventually bounded in the compact subset
: ^(S , E, I )  R 3
 : N d Mr
d
 H ,H ! 0 .`
Proof. Let S (t ), E (t ), I (t ) be any solution with positive initial conditions S0 , E0 , I 0 .
Summing up three equations in (2.1) and denoting N S (t )  E(t )  I (t ), we have
dN S  dN
rS l  N
dt
Using standard comparison theorem, we have
lim sup S d M , where M max ^S0 , N `
t of

Thus dN  dN rS l  NS d M r
dt
By applying theory of differential inequalities [3], we obtain
0 d N ( S , E , I ) d Mr
d
l  e dt  N S0 , E0 , I 0 e  dt ,

and for t o f, we have 0 d 1 ( S , E , I ) d Mr

d
Hence all the solutions of (2.1) are eventually bounded in : .

3. EXISTENCE OF EQUILIBRIUM POINTS

The basic reproduction number [2] of the system (2.1) is defined as

83
 International Journal of Ecology & Development

NEX (r d )
R0 r ( d X )( d J )
System (2.1) has two biologically relevant equilibria, namely
N (r  d )
i) Infection-free equilibrium E0 r , 0, 0 , which exist when r ! d

ii) Endemic equilibrium E1 ( S * , E * , I * ), which exist if R0 ! l and is given by

( d X )( d J )(lD I * ) ( P d J ) I * /2  /22 4/l/3

S* EX , E* X , I* 2 /l

where /1 rD 2 (d  X )2 (d  J )2
/2 XNE 2 (d  X  J )  rD (d  X ) 2 (d  J ) 2 R0  2
/3 r (d  X )2 (d  J ) 2 R0  l

3.1. Stability of Infection-Free Equilibrium

The Jacobian matrix of system (2.1) at E0 is given by

ª º
« (r  d ) 0 J  NE (rr d ) »
«
NE (r d ) »» (3.1)
J0 « 0 (d  X )eOW r
« »
« »
« 0 X e OW (d  J ) »¼
¬
The eigen values of (3.1) are given by
ª¬O  (r  d ) º¼ ^O 2
 ¬ª(d  X )e OW  (d  J ) ¼º O  (d  J )(d  X )(l  R0)e OW ` 0

ŸO (r  d ) and O 2  ª¬(d X )eOW  (d  J )º¼ O  (d  J )(d  X )(l  R0 )eOW 0 (3.2)

For W 0, equation (3.2) becomes
2
O  >(d  X )  (d  J )@ O  (d  J )(d  X )(l  R0) 0 (3.3)

It is observed that if R0  l, the roots of (3.3) have negative real parts.

Proposition 1. If r ! d and R0  l, the infection-free equilibrium E0 of system (2.1) is locally

asymptotically stable if and only if W 0.

3.2. Stability of Endemic Equilibrium

The Jacobian matrix of system (2.1) at E1 is given by

ª rS * º
J  ES* 2 »
*
« N 0
« (lD I ) »
« E I* E S* » (3.4)
Jl «1D I * (d  X )e  OW »
« (l  D I ) »
* 2

« »
« »
«¬ 0 X e OW (d  J ) »¼
The eigen values of (3.4) are given by
O  a1O  a2O  b1O  b2O  b3 eOW
3 2 2
0 (3.5)

84
 International Journal of Ecology & Development

Where a1 rS*  d  J
N
N (d  J ) S
a2 r *

b1 d X
XE S *
N (d  X )S  (d  J )(d  X )  (1  D I * )2
b2 r *

rS * ª(d  J )(d  X )  XE S * º XE 2 S * I * XEJ I *

b3 N « * 2 »
 
¬ (l  D I ) ¼ ( l  D I )
* 3
l D I*

For W
3 2
0, equation (3.5) becomes O  a1  b1 O  a2  b2 O  b3 0 (3.6)

It can be easily verified that a1  b1 a2  b2  b3 ! 0 if R0 ! l.

By Routh-Hurwitz criterion, all the roots of (3.6) have negative real parts.

Proposition 2. If R0 ! l, the endemic equilibrium El of system (2.1) is locally asymptotically stable if

and only if W 0.

3.3. Hopf Bifurcation Analysis

For W ! 0, assume that equation (3.5) has a purely imaginary root iZ (Z ! o).
Put O iZ in (3.5) and then equating real and imaginary parts, one receives
a1Z 2
b3  b1Z 2 cos ZW  b2Z sin ZW
(3.7)
Z 3 a2Z b2Z cos ZW  b3 b1Z 2 sin ZW
Eliminating W from (3.7) gives
Z  a  2a2  bl2 Z 4  a22  2b1b3  b22 Z 2  b32
6 2
l 0 (3.8)

Let z Z 2 , then (3.8) becomes

z 3  s1 z 2  s2 z  s3 0 (3.9)

where s1 a12  2a2  b12

s2 a22  2b1b3 b22

s3 b32
Denote h( z ) z 3  s1 z 2  s2 z  s3
Since h(0) s3  0 and lim h( z )  f, equation (3.9) has at least one positive root z1 . Therefore,
z of

equation (3.8) has at least one positive root, given by Z1 z1 .

Let O (W ) K (W )  iZ(W ) be a root of (3.5) near W W 0 with K W 0 0 and Z W 0 Z0
From (3.7), we get
­ ª a Z 2§¨ b b Z 2 ·¸§¨Z3a Z ·¸b Z º ½
W0 l °arccos « 1 0 ¨© 3 1 0 ¸¹ ¨© 0 2 0 ¸¹ 2 0 »  2 jS ° , j 0,1, 2,... (3.10)
Z0 ® « 2 » ¾
¨¨ b3b1Z0 ¸¸ b2 Z0
§ 2· 2 2
° « » °
¯ ¬ © ¹ ¼ ¿

85
 International Journal of Ecology & Development

Proposition 3. If Ro ! l and 2a2  al2  bl2  3 a22  2bb

l 3
 b22 then we have the transversality

condition d Re(O ) !0
dW O iZ0

Substituting O (W ) into L.H.S of (3.5) and differentiating w.r.t. W , we get

ª3O  2a O  a  (2b O  b )e OW  (b O  b O  b )W e OW º d O
2 2
(blO 2  b2O  b3 )OeOW
¬ 1 2 l 2 l 2 3
¼ dW
2
dO
1
3O  2a1O  a2 2bl O  b2 W
 
dW (blO 2
 b2 O  b3 )O e  OW (blO 2  b2O  b3 )O O
1 a2  3Z02 L  2a1M  2b12Z02  2b1b3  b22
Thus Re d O
dW O iZ0 P2  Q2

W here P b3  b1Zo2 sin ZoW  b2Zo cos ZoW

Q b3  b1Zo2 cos ZoW  b2Zo sin ZoW

Together with (3.7), it follows that
3Z04  2(2a2  a12  b12 )Z02  a22  b22  2b1b3
Re d O
1

dW O iZ0 P2  Q2

Clearly, d Re(O ) ! 0 if 2a2  a12  b12  3 a22  2b1b3  b22

dW O iZ

Based on above analysis and the results of Hale [3], Kuang [6] and Ruan and Wei [14], the following
conclusion is reached:
Theorem 2. If 2a2  a12  b12  3 a22  2b1b3  b22 and Proposition 2 holds true, then the endemic
equilibrium E1 of system (2.1) is unstable for W t W 0 and asymptotically stable for 0 d W  W 0 and
system (2.1) go through Hopf bifurcation at E1 when W W0.

3.4. Global Stability of Endemic Equilibrium

Theorem 3. The endemic equilibrium E1 of system (2.1) is globally asymptotically stable in the interior
of : if and only if W 0.
Proof. Define the Lyapunov functional as
V (S  S * ln S )  (E  E* ln E )  (I  I * ln I )
Differentiating with respect to t ,
dV S  S * dS  E  E* dE  I  I * dI
dt S dt E dt I dt

S S* ª rS 1  S  E SI  dS  J I º  E  E* ª E SI  (d  X ) E º  I  I * ªX E  (d  J ) I º
S ¬« N 1D I ¼» E ¬«1D I ¼» I ¬ ¼

(d X )
J
 (d I J )
2 2 2
 Nr S  S *  S  S* S * I  SI *  E  E* I  I*
SS* E
(d X )
J
 (d I J )
2 ª S  S* 2 2º 2 2
d  Nr S  S *   S * I  SI *  E  E* I  I*
2 SS* ¬« ¼» E

ª ­ 2
½º (d X ) (d J )
d  « Nr  J S*I SI * * 2 2 2
®1  ¾» S  S  E  E*  I  I*
¬ 2SS* ¯ * S S ¿¼ E I

86
 International Journal of Ecology & Development

2
r J ­ S*I SI * ½
d 0 if N ! 2SS* ®1  S S* ¾
¯ ¿
2
J ­ S*I  SI * ½
Clearly, dV d 0 if r
N ! 2SS* ®1  S  S* ¾
dt ¯ ¿
Therefore, E1 is globally asymptotically stable in the interior of : if and only if W 0.

4. NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS

The section that follows deals with some numerical simulations for supporting the analytical results.

Example 1. When W 0, we give the parameter values as follows:

r 0.9, N 0.278, E 0.6, d 0.2, D 0.9,X 0.3, J 0.03. Then system (2.1) has an infection-
free equilibrium E0 (0.2162, 0, 0) with R2 0.3384  l, which is locally asymptotically stable (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Trajectories of the system (2.1) without delay at E0

Example 2. When W 0, we give the parameter values as follows:

r 0.7, N 9.25, E 0.5, d 0.2, D 0.06, X 0.09, J 0.0l. Then system (2.1) has an
endemic equilibrium at El l.366l, 0.379l, 0.l626 with R0 4.882l ! l, which is locally asymptotically
stable (Figure 2).

(a) (b)
Figure 2. (a) Trajectories and (b) Phase-portraits of the system (2.1) without delay at E1

87
 International Journal of Ecology & Development

Example 3. Imagine the parameter values to be the same as that in Example 2. We can ascertain
from (3.10) whenever the time delay (W ) goes past the threshold value W0 1.4956, E1 reports loss in
stability and a family comprising periodic solutions bifurcate from E1 (Figure 3 – Figure 5). However,
E1 is asymptotically stable when 0 d W  W 0 .

(a) (b)
Figure 3. (a) Trajectories and (b) Phase-portraits of the system (2.1) at E1 when W 0.8  W 0 1.4956

(a) (b)
Figure 4. (a) Trajectories and (b) Phase-portraits of the system (2.1) at E1 when W W 0
1.4956

(a) (b)
Figure 5. (a) Trajectories and (b) Phase-portraits of the system (2.1) at E1 when
W 2.2 ! W 0 1.4956

88
 International Journal of Ecology & Development

5. CONCLUSIONS

This paper looked in some detail at effect of delay on an SEIS model with saturated incidence rate, in
which the growth of the susceptibles is governed by the logistic equation. The stability of the model
was analyzed in terms of basic reproduction number R0 . If R0  1, the infection-free equilibrium E0 is

locally asymptotically stable so the disease dies out. The endemic equilibrium El is locally
asymptotically stable if R0 ! l. Employing Lyapunov functional technique, the global stability
pertaining to the endemic equilibrium is made clear. Moreover, a behavioral change is observed in the
system as it moves from stable to unstable when W crosses the threshold value W 0 , through Hopf
bifurcation from E1. To conclude, numerical simulations were arrived at as a way of validating
analytical results.

6. REFERENCES

[1] Capasso, V., Serio, G., 1978, A generalization of the Kermack-McKendrick deterministic
epidemic model. Mathematical Biosciences, 42, 65–81.

[2] Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J.A.P., Metz, J.A.J., 1990, On the definition and the computation of
the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations.
Journal of Mathematical Biology, 28, 365-382.

[3] Hale, J., 1977, Theory of Functional Differential Equations. Springer-Verlag, New York.

[4] Hethcote, H.W., 2000, The mathematics of infectious disease. SIAM Review, 42, 599-653.

[5] Karuna, B.N.R., Lakshmi Narayan, K., Ravindra Reddy, B., 2018, Stability analysis of an HBV
model with delay in viral production. International Journal of Ecology and Development, 33, 28-
44.

[6] Kuang, Y., 1993, Delay Differential Equations with Applications in Population Dynamics.
Academic Press, New York.

[7] Li, J., Ma, Z., 2006, Analysis of two SEIS epidemic models with fixed period of latency. Journal of
Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 26, 228–236.

[8] Li, M.Y., Muldowney, J.S., 1995, Global stability for the SEIR model in epidemiology.
Mathematical Biosciences, 125, 155-164.

[9] Lui, L., 2015, A delayed SIR model with general nonlinear incidence rate. Advances in Difference
Equations, 2015, Article No. 329.

[10] Madhusudhan Reddy, K., Lakshmi Narayan, K., Ravindra Reddy, B., 2018, Hopf bifurcation
analysis and stochastic influence of a delayed SIR model. International Journal of Ecological
Economics and Statistics, 39, 129-139.

[11] Meng, X., Wu, Z., Zhang, T., 2013, The dynamics and therapeutic strategies of a SEIS epidemic
model. International Journal of Biomathematics, 6, Article ID: 1350029

[12] Ranjith Kumar, G., Sitarambabu, B., Lakshmi Narayan, K., 2019, Mathematical study of prey-
predator model with infection predator and intra-specific competition. International Journal of
Ecology and Development, 39, 11- 21.

89
 International Journal of Ecology & Development

[13] Ruan, S., Wang, W., 2003, Dynamical behaviour of an epidemic model with nonlinear incidence
rate. Journal of Differential Equations, 188, 135-163.

[14] Ruan, S., & Wei, J., 2003, On the zeros of transcendental functions with applications to stability
of delay differential equations with two delays. Dynamics of Continuous, Discrete Impulse
Systems Series A: Mathematical Analysis, 10, 863-874.

[15] Sun, C.J., Lin, Y.P., Tang, S.P., 2007, Global stability for a special SEIR epidemic model with
nonlinear incidence rates. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 33, 290-297.

[16] Xu, R., 2012, Global dynamics of an SEIS epidemiological model with time delay describing a
latent period. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 85, 90-102.

90