Chapter PEM CPM PERT

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Good Morning

Chapter Three: Project Planning &


Scheduling
Lecture No. 9
Gantt Chart
Critical Path Method (CPM)
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
2079/09/18 Monday BME/BAME
Paschimanchal Campus
Dept. of Mechanical & Automobile (BME/BAME IV/II)
Compiled By : Er. Rajesh Bhattarai
Chapter 3.4 Project Scheduling with Bar
Chart, CPM and PERT
 Scheduling is laying out of the actual jobs of the project in time
order in which they have to be performed, manpower and material
requirements needed at each stage of construction are calculated,
along with the expected completion time of each jobs.
Scheduling is used for following proposes.
 To control financing and payment
 To predict project completion time and activity
 To serve as a record
 To manage risk and uncertainties.
 A schedule is graphical representation which shows the starting
and ending dates of each activity and the sequential relationship
among the various activities.
Project Scheduling Methods (Tools)
1.Bar chart
1.1 Gantt Chart/Bar Chart
1.2 Linked Bar Chart
1.3 Milestone Chart
2. Network Diagrams
2.1 CPM ( Critical Path Method )
2.2 PERT ( Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
3.1 Bar Chart/ Gantt Chart
Henry L. Gantt:1917 (American Mechanical Engineer)

 It is graphical representation of project activities shown


in time scale bar line with no links shown between the
activities.
 Horizontal axis representing the total time span and
vertical axis representing the activities that make up the
project
 A bar chart is a scheduling technique in which activity
during is drawn to scale on a time base.
 A bar chart is also called Gantt chart since it was
developed by Henry Gantt.
Steps in Preparing Bar Chart
 Listing the work of activities
 Estimation of work duration
 Identifying the start and completion date in calendar
format
 Develop logical sequence between activities
 Drawing each activity as horizontal bar in chronological
order according to its start date
Example
Activity Description Estimated time for
completion (in weeks)
A Selection of site and survey 3
B Design 5
C Preparation of drawing 4
D Preparation of specification and tender 2
documents
E Tendering 4
F Issuing work order 2
Advantages & Disadvantages of Bar Chart
Advantages of Bar Chart
 Easy to understand
 The status of the project can be assessed in short time
 Easy to develop and implement
 No training is required
 It can be used to show progress
 Appropriate for small project
 Starting point for planning
Disadvantage of Bar Chart
 There may be physical limit to the size of the bar chart, hence it is
not suitable for big and complex project.
 In bar chart long duration activity may appear most important ones,
which may not be true.
 Difficulties in seeing immediately and exactly overall project
duration if changes occur in any particular activity.
 It does not depict the dependencies of activities upon each other.
 Updating means to redraw the entire chart again and again
 Do not provide the methods for optimizing resource allocation
 It is difficult to show critical path critical activities and floats
available.
Example
 A project consists of 6 activities A,B,C,D,E, F with their time of
completion as follows:
Activity Duration (Weeks)
A 2
B 4
C 2
D 4
E 6
F 4

 Activity A and B can be performed in parallel


 Activity C & D cannot start until activity B is completed
 Activity E cannot start until the half the work of activity C is completed
 Activity F can start after activity D is Completed
Draw the bar chart and find out the completion time of the project
Question
A project has 7 activities A,B,C,D,E ,F & G. The time required for each of the
activities and the precedence relationships between the activities are as under

Activity A B C D E F G

Preceding None None A&B A C A&B F


Activity
Draw a bar chart
Time Days 40and find
20 out the
15project completion
25 15time. 25 10
Milestone Chart
 Milestone chart is a modification over the original Gantt
Chart (Bar Chart)
 Milestones are the key events i.e. start or end of the
activity.
 A chart that graphically depicts key events along a time
scale, usually with triangles representating each event , is
called milestone chart.
 A milestone chart shows the relationship within same
activity or job or task.
 Thus as compared to bar chart better control can be
achieved with the help of milestone chart but still
possesses the same deficiency that it does not depict the
interdependencies between the various tasks or
relationship between the milestones of different task.
Linked Bar Chart
 It is modified version of Gantt bar chart. It was developed
to overcome some of the inherent limitations of bar chart.
 It shows the interrelationship between an activities.
 The linked bar chart has an advantage of exhibiting the
effect of delay on succeeding activities and also it can
provide some information of the extra time available with
an activity for its completion
 The extra time available for activity for its completion is
called float.
 The link bars are very complicated and sometimes
impossible to show graphically. They are mainly four types
of relationship between activities.
1 Finish to Start
Activity Y can’t start until activity X is finished
X Y
2 Start to Start
Activity Y must start when activity X start
X
Y
3 Start to finish
Activity Y should be finished when activity X starts
X
Y

4. Finish to Finish
Activity Y must be finished when activity X finishes
X
Y
Network Diagrams
 There are two popular network based scheduling
Techniques
1. Critical Path Method ( CPM )
2. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
 Critical path is graphical network based scheduling
technique that evolved in late 60’s US agencies insisted
on their use by contractors on major government
projects.
 Basic concepts of CPM such of activities, events and
predecessors have become a regular part of language of
project managers
 CPM enables planners and managers to thoroughly
analyze the timing and sequential logic of all operations
required to complete the project.
 In 1957 CPM was developed by Morgan R. Walker of
DU Pont and James E. Kelly of Remington Rand for
preparing the shut down schedule of chemical plant.
 US navy developed the project management tool known
as PERT ( 1958 ) for Polaris Missile project
Terminology Used In Network Analysis
1. Activity (Task)
 An activity is an any identifiable job that has a beginning
and end time.
 An activity consumes time, manpower and material
resources.
 Examples: excavation of Factory foundation.
 Construction of walls
 Construction of roofing
 An activity is represented by a straight arrow with circles at both ends
 The circle placed at the beginning of the arrow represents the starting point
of the activity while the circle placed at the end of the arrow represents the
finishing point of the activity.

2. Event (Node)
 An event ( also called Node) is the beginning or end of the activity.
 An event does not consume time, manpower or material resources.
 An event represents a specific point in time (Start & End) and is
represented by the circle.
 Thus the two circles placed at the beginning and end of the activity are
called events.
Event E/Excavation Event Cons. Of wall Event
A B
1 2 3
15 Duration 21
Activity Activity
 Event 1 is tail event eg. Start of Earthwork in Excavation
 Event 2 ( completion of Excavation ) is head event of the activity earth
work excavation and tail event for activity construction of wall. It is called
dual role event
 Event 3 is the head event for activity construction of wall.
3. Dummy Activity
 A dummy activity is an imaginary activity included in the network.
 Since it is not a real activity it does not consume time manpower
and material resources.
 It is included in the network to maintain the network
logic and to avoid the ambiguity.
 A dummy activity is represented by dotted arrow.
 Unnecessary dummies make network messy and creates
confusion.

4. Activity Duration
 Activity duration is the amount of time estimated for its
completion.
 The time unit for the project can be minutes, hours,
working days or calendar days.
 Activity Duration = Work Quantity/Production Rate
5. Earliest Time and Latest Time
There are following types of earliest and latest time.
 Earliest Start Time (EST): It is the earliest possible time an
activity or operation can be started. It is equal to earliest
occurrence time of tail event of that activity.
 Earliest Finish Time (EFT) : It is the earliest possible time
for completion of activity or operation without delaying the
project completion time.
 It can be computed by adding duration by EST:
EFT=EST+D
 Latest Finish Time (LFT) : It is the latest time the activity
or operation must be completed so that scheduled
completion date of work can be achieved. It is equal to
latest occurrence time of head event.
Latest Start Time (LST): It is the latest the possible time
an activity can be started without delaying the project.
LST = LFT -D
D= Activity Duration
EFT= EST ( 1-2) + D
LST = LFT ( 1-2 ) –D
D
1 2
6.Concurrent (Parallel Activities)
Those activities which can be performed simultaneously and
independently to each other are known as concurrent activities. In
figure below activities F and G are concurrent activities.

7. Serial Activities
Those activities which are to be performed one after other, in
succession are known as serial activities. Serial activities cannot be
performed independently.
Predecessor & Successor activity
Activity E is Predecessor activity
For activities F & G.
Activity F & G are successor
Activities for activity E
Rules of Drawing Network Diagram
 All activities shall be represented by way of straight arrows
pointing towards right. This means flow of network shall be
from the left to right.
 There must be only one initial node as well as ending node in a
network . The initial node has only outgoing arrows where as
ending node has only incoming arrows.
 There should be only one arrow for an activity, i.e. number of
arrows should be equal to number of activities.
 There shall not be crisscrossing of arrows
 The arrows of a network can’t form loops
 There shall not be unnecessary dummy activities in the
network. Dummy activities shall be introduced only when
absolutely necessary.
Rule :There shall not be crisscrossing of arrows

B F
E
A C

G
D
Numbering of Events ( Fulkerson’s Rule)
 Identify the initial event and assign it no.1
 Doing so will apparently provide one or more new initial events.
Number these apparently produced new initial events as 2,3,4 etc
 Follow the above procedure till the end of the network is reached.
The last event is assigned with the highest number in the network.

Finding Critical Path in a large Network


Forward Pass Computation
 All activities in the network are assumed to start as early
as possible.
 The Calculation begins from left to right side of network.
 When two or more than two activity merge into an event,
the largest value is taken as an earliest occurrence of the
event.
 It gives EST and EFT of each activity.
Backward Pass Computation
 All activities in the network are assumed to start as late
as possible.
 The Calculation begins right to left side of network.
 When two or more than two activity merges to event, the
smallest value is taken as late occurrence of time of
event.
 It gives LST and LFT of each activity.
Activities on Arrow (A-O-A)
Activities on Node ( A-O-N )
 It uses rectangles to represent the project activities with an arrow
linking them together to show sequence in which they are to be
performed.
 In AON method, dummy activity is omitted and does not require to
show EST and LFT directly network.
 AON is also known as Precedence Diagram Method ( PDM )
Draw a network with following details
SN Activity Predecessor Successor
1 A - B,C,D
2 B A E
3 C A F
4 D A G
5 E B -
6 F C -
7 G D -
Draw a network with following details
SN Activity Predecessor Successor
1 A - B,C,D
2 B A E
3 C A F
4 D A G
5 E B -
6 F C -
7 G D -
3
B E
5 1
A
C F
1 2 4 6
2 3 4
D G
4
4 5
Draw a network with following details
SN Activity Predecessor Successor
1 A - B,C
2 B A D
3 C A E,F
4 D B F
5 E C G
6 F C,D G
7 G E,F -
Draw a network with following details
SN Activity Predecessor Successor
1 A - B,C
2 B A D
3 C A E,F
4 D B F
5 E C G
6 F C,D G
7 G E,F -
D
3 5 F
B
Dummy G
A 6 7
1 2
E

C 4
Critical Path Method ( CPM )
 A network represents the logical sequence of activities
contained in an each path in a network will have a different
duration.
 The path that have a longest duration is called critical path
and the activities in the critical path are called critical
activities.
 The critical path sets the overall duration of the project.
Characteristics of Critical Path
 A critical path is longest path time( time-wise) connecting
the initial and final events.
 A critical path may run through dummy activity/ activities.
 Since critical path is the path having the longest time
duration, it does not mean it will have maximum number of
activities.
 It is possible that a network may have more than one critical
path. i.e. if two paths have the same time duration which is
maximum then such paths will be the critical paths.
 It determine the total project duration.
Activity Float Analysis
 For the events that lie on the critical path, the EST and
the LFT are equal. In other words slack of the these
events is given by i.e. Slack = EST –LFT
 The free time available for the activity is called float.
Thus float for an activity is similar to the slack of event.
There are four types of float.
 Total float
 Free float
 Independent float
 Interfering float
1. Total Float (TF):
 Total float represents the maximum time by which the
completion of an activity can be delayed without affecting the
project completion time.
 If an activity is delayed by the time equal to its total float, that
activity and all the other subsequent activities in that path
become the critical activities.
 Total float of the activity = LFT –EFT or LST –EST
2. Free Float (FF):
 It is the delay that can be permitted in an activity so that
succeeding activities in the path are not affected.
 Free float of an activity= EST of head event – EST of
tail event – duration < TF
 FF= (EST)H –(EST) T -D
3. Independent float
 Independent float of an activity is the spare time available for
that activity, if that activity is started as late as possible and is
finished as early as possible.
 Independent float of an activity = EST of the head event –LFT
of tail event – duration
 IF= (EST)H –(LFT) T -D

4. Interfering float
 It is the difference between Total float and free float
 Inf=TF-FF
Use of different floats for management
decisions
 All activities that lie in the critical path have their total floats equal to zero.
 If the total float of an activity is used entirely in that activity, it would
make that activity and all the succeeding activities in the path critical.
Hence it is not advisable to use the total float completely in an activity as
this will leave cushion available if subsequent activities need additional
time for completion than originally planned.
 Free float can be used completely for the activity since this does not
disturb the succeeding activities. However preceding activities should be
finished as planned.
 Independent float: It is the spare time available for the activity, if
preceding activity is started as late as possible and succeeding
activities are finished as early as possible. Hence independent float can
be used without any constraints.
Advantages of Critical Path Method
 It makes dependencies variable
 It enables the calculation of float of each activity.
 Organizes large and complex projects
 It encourages the project manager to reduce the project
duration.
 It enables the project manager to optimize efficiency
 It provides opportunities to the respond to the negative risk
going over schedule.
Disadvantages
 For large and complex projects, there will be the
thousands of activities and dependency relationships.
Without the software it might be difficult managing this
 It may be difficult to print the project network diagram
with thousand of activities
 It does not account resource levelling and resource
allocation.
Q1. Draw a CPM Network. Find critical activities, critical path ,
project duration, EST,EFT, LST,LFT & TF. All the time duration is
in days
S.N. Activity Duration Predecessor Successor
1 A 5 - B,D
2 B 6 A C
3 C 5 B F
4 D 4 A E
5 E 3 D F
6 F 4 C,E -
Q1. (Exam 2070) Draw a CPM Network. Find critical activities, critical
path , project duration, EST,EFT, LST,LFT, TF,FF and IF (both
independent and interfering float). All the time duration is in days

S.N. Activity Duration Predecessor Successor


1 A 3 - D
2 B 6 - E,G,I
3 C 2 - F
4 D 2 A G
5 E 1 B H
6 F 3 C I
7 G 7 B,D -
8 H 3 E -
9 I 4 B,F -
P S EST EFT LST LFT TF= FF= IF=FF-slack(T) INF
=EST+ =LFT- LFT-EFT TF- TF-
OR
D D LST-EST slack
(H)
- D 0 3 1 4 1 0 0-0=0
- E,G,I 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 0
- F 0 2 4 6 4 0 0-0=0
A G 3 5 4 6 1 1 1-1=0
B H 6 7 9 10 3 0 0-0=0
C I 2 5 6 9 4 1 1-4=-3=0
B,D - 6 13 6 13 0 0 0-0=0 0
E - 7 10 10 13 3 3 3-3=0
B,F - 6 10 9 13 3 3 3-3=0
Q2. Draw a CPM Network. Find critical activities, critical path ,
project duration, EST,EFT, LST,LFT, TF,FF and IF (both
independent and interfering float). All the time duration is in days
S.N. Activity Duration Predecessor Successor
1 A 2 B,C,D
2 B 5 E
3 C 3 F,H
4 D 4 G,H
5 E 1 I
6 F 6 I
7 G 4 J
8 H 3 K
9 I 5 K
10 J 4 K
11 K 2 -
Q3. Draw a CPM Network. Find critical activities, critical path ,
project duration, EST,EFT, LST,LFT, TF,FF and IF (both
independent and interfering float). All the time duration is in days
S.N. Activity Duration Predecessor Successor
1 A 5 - B,C,D
2 B 3 A E
3 C 2 A F,H
4 D 3 A G
5 E 2 B H
6 F 1 C I
7 G 3 D I
8 H 1 C, E -
9 I 2 F,G -
Q4. Draw a CPM Network. Find critical activities, critical path ,
project duration, EST,EFT, LST,LFT, TF,FF and IF (both
independent and interfering float). All the time duration is in days
S.N. Activity Duration Predecessor Successor
1 A 4 - C
2 B 3 - D,E
3 C 1 A F
4 D 3 B F
5 E 5 B G,H
6 F 1 C,D H
7 G 1 E I,J
8 H 5 E,F -
9 I 2 G -
10 J 4 G K
11 K 4 J -
Q5. Draw a CPM Network. Find critical activities, critical path ,
project duration, EST,EFT, LST,LFT, TF,FF and IF (both
independent and interfering float). All the time duration is in days
S.N. Activity Duration Predecessor Successor
1 A 5 - E
2 B 6 - F
3 C 7 - G
4 D 8 - H
5 E 9 A I,J
6 F 7 B I,J
7 G 5 C I,J
8 H 3 D I,J
9 I 4 E,F,G,H -
10 J 5 E,F,G,H -
Draw a network with following details
S Activ Durati EST EFT LST LFT TF
N ity on =(EST+D) =LFT- =LFT-
D EFT
1 1-2 3 0 3 0 3
2 1-3 4 0 4 9 13
3 1-4 14 0 14 3 17
4 2-3 10 3 13 3 13
5 2-6 5 3 8 14 19
6 3-5 4 13 17 14 18
7 3-6 6 13 19 13 19
8 4-5 1 14 15 17 18
9 5-6 1 17 18 18 19
AON Diagram
Start
https://slideplayer.com/slide/14325105/
Q8. 2073 Draw a AON Network.

S.N. Activity Duration Predecessor Successor


1 A 4 - B,C,D
2 B 6 A E,F
3 C 9 A G
4 D 2 A K
5 E 3 B K
6 F 8 B -
7 G 10 C H
8 H 4 G -
9 K 2 D,E -
PERT ( Program Evaluation and
Review Technique)
 Like CPM, PERT is also a network based planning tool developed by US
Navy in 1956/1957 and used for scheduling Ballistic Missile Project,
Launching Nuclear Missile from sub-Marine
 But unlike CPM, Pert is used for novel projects like research and
development where it is difficult to estimate the experience such as
Civil/Mechanical engineering works.
 It is probabilistic approach for estimating the duration of an activity and
event oriented network diagram.
PERT uses three time estimate
 Optimistic time estimate (to)
 Pessimistic time estimate (tp)
 Most likely time estimate (tm)
1. Optimistic Time Estimate ( to )
 It is the minimum time required to complete the activity
in ideal situation.
 In arriving the Optimistic time estimate, it is assumed
that everything is favorable in completing the activity in
the shortest possible time.
2. Pessimistic time estimate ( tp )
 It is the maximum time required to complete the activity
in the worst situation
 In arriving the pessimistic time it is assumed that
everything is unfavorable for completing the activity in
time and every possible delay and situation is
encountered.
3. Most likely ( probable ) time estimate ( tm )
 It is the time required to complete the activity in normal
circumstances.
 In arriving the most likely time it is assumed that
conditions are neither favorable nor unfavorable but
normal
Expected time estimate: ( te )
From these three time estimates, we calculate the average
time ( expected time )
te = [to +4tm + tp ]/6
S.D. (σ) = [tp – to ]/6
Variance = σ²
Probability of completing the projects
in Given time
 It is assumed that the project completion time follows the
normal distribution. The area under the normal curve between
mean and any point x which is one standard deviation away
from the mean is always same irrespective of the values of
mean and standard deviation.
 The term one standard deviation can be replaced by any
standard deviation and the statement still holds good.
 If z is the number of standard deviation away from the mean
for an observation z can be represented as
 Z= [ observed value- mean value]/ standard deviation
 Z=(x-μ)/σ
Q. The time estimates in (weeks) for the activities of a PERT
Network are given below

Activity to tm tp  A) Draw the project network


 B) Determine the expected project length
1-2 1 1 7
 C) Calculate S.D. & variance of the
1-3 1 4 7 project length
1-4 2 2 8  D) If the project due date is 19 weeks .
What is the probability of not meeting the
2-5 1 1 1 due date
3-5 2 5 14  E) The probability that the project will be
completed on schedule if the completion
4-6 2 5 8 time is 20 weeks

5-6 3 6 15  F) What should be the scheduled


completion if time for the probability of
completion to be 90%
Solution:
Activity to tm tp te = [to +4tm + tp ]/6 Variance= [(tp – to ) /6] 2
1-2 1 1 7 2 1
1-3 1 4 7 4 1
1-4 2 2 8 3 1
2-5 1 1 1 1 0
3-5 2 5 14 6 4
4-6 2 5 8 5 1
5-6 3 6 15 7 4

2/9 1 10/10
2 5
2 6 7

1 3 6
0/0 4/4 6 17/17
3 5
Expected Project Duration = 17 Weeks
3/12 4
Critical activities (1-3),(3-5),(5-6)
(c) Variance σ²=1+4+4=9
S.D. (σ) =3
d) Due date of Project = 19 = (x)
Probability of meeting the due date first
Project due date = 19 Weeks
Expected time = 17 weeks
 Z= P(X < 19)= (x-μ)/σ Z= [ observed value- mean value]/ standard deviation
 Z=(x-μ)/σ
Z= (19-17)/3=2/3=0.67
Probability (See Table) =0.7486=74.86%
Not meeting due date =1-P=1-0.7496=0.2516=25.14%
e) Z=(x-μ)/σ=(20-17)/3=1
Probability Z=1, see table =0.8413=84.13%
 F) P=90% =0.90
 See 0.90 table and find value of Z =1.28
 Z=(x-μ)/σ
 1.28=(x-17)/3
 X=1.28x3+17= 20.84 weeks
Difference between CPM and PERT
CPM PERT
Deterministic tool with single estimate Probabilistic tool used with three
of duration estimate of duration
Activity oriented Event oriented
Considers less uncertainty Considers more uncertainty
Best suited for routine projects requiring Best suited for research and development
accurate time and cost estimates related projects where the project is
performed for the first time and
estimates of the duration is uncertain

Allows and explicit estimate of cost in This tool is basically a tool for planning
addition to time, therefore CPM can and controlling of time
control both time and cost
The deterministic factor is more so The probability factor is major in PERT
values or outcomes are generally so outcomes may not be accurate
accurate and realistic
Easy to maintain Costly to maintain
Similarities between CPM and PERT
 Both tools lead to the same end : critical path and critical
activities with slack time equal to zero
 Extensions of both PERT and CPM allow the user to
manage other resources in addition to time and money, to
tradeoff resources, to analyze different types of
schedules and to balance the use of resources.
The contents of this lecture, including some text and
images are taken/used from different books, journals and
internet sources. They are solely used for not-for-profit
academic teaching/learning activities. I express my sincere
thanks to the writers/publishers of the used materials.

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