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Detyre Kursi Ekonometri
Detyre Kursi Ekonometri
Detyre Kursi Ekonometri
UNIVERSITETI“ALEKSANDER MOISIU”
Detyre Kursi
LENDA: Ekonometri
Te dhenat:
NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (Y) AND INFLATION (X) IN NINE INDUSTRIAL
COUNTRIES
y = 1.2321x + 0.0271
R² = 0.9931
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Y
(
%
)
X(%)
Lidhja norme nominale interesi ,norme inflacioni
FOR THE YEAR 1988
Country Y(%) X(%)
Australia 11.9 7.7
Canada 9.4 4.0
France 7.5 3.1
Germany 4.0 1.6
Italy 11.3 4.8
Mexico 66.3 51.7
Switzerland 2.2 2.0
United Kingdom 10.3 6.8
United States 7.6 4.4
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std.
Deviation
N
(y) nr
nominale
14.500000 19.6914956 9
(x) inflacioni 9.566667 15.9267856 9
Koeficenti I korrelacionit.
Correlations
(y) nr nominale (x) inflacioni
Pearson Correlation
(y) nr nominale 1.000 .997
(x) inflacioni .997 1.000
Sig. (1-tailed)
(y) nr nominale
. .000
(x) inflacioni .000 .
N
(y) nr nominale 9 9
(x) inflacioni 9 9
Duke pare koeficentin e korelacionit 0.997 1 konkludojme qe kemi nje lihje te
forte pozitive
dhe madje mund te themi qe kemi nje lidhje perfekte.
Model Summary
Mod
el
R R
Square
Adjusted R
Square
Std. Error
of the
Estimate
Change Statistics
R Square
Change
F
Change
df1 df2 Sig. F
Change
1 .997
a
.993 .992 1.7533474 .993
1002.04
7
1 7 .000
a. Predictors: (Constant), (x) inflacioni
ANOVA
a
Model Sum of
Squares
df Mean
Square
F Sig.
1
Regression 3080.520 1 3080.520 1002.047 .000
b
Total 3102.040 8
Coefficients
a
Model Unstandardized
Coefficients
Standard
ized
Coefficie
nts
t Sig. 95.0% Confidence
Interval for B
Correlations
B Std.
Error
Beta Lower
Bound
Upper
Bound
Zero-
order
Partia
l
Part
1
(Consta
nt)
2.713 .693
(x)
inflacio
ni
1.232 .039 .997
31.65
5
.000 1.140 1.324 .997 .997 .997
a. Dependent Variable: (y) nr nominale
Testojme sinjifikancen e B1
(1) Ho: b1=0 ( nuk ka lidhje lineare) (2) α=
0.05 d.f=n-2=7
H1:b1≠0 ( lidhja lineare egziston)
(3.)perdorim testin “t “ sespe n<30, n=9
(4) Formulojme rregullin e vendimarrjes dhe llog t
Nqs t llog > t tab Ho refuzohet Tllog= 31.7
Nqs t llog < -t tab Ho refuzohet Ttab= 2.365
t= slope/standard error= 1.232/0.039=31.7
(5.) Marrim vendime
Duke qene se tllog> ttab, atehere kemi evidenva te mjaftueshme per te refuzuar Ho,
dhe do
pranojme hipotezen alternative. Pra kemi evidenva te mjaftueshme qe inflacioni ka
ndikim ne
normen nominale te interesit.
Interpretojme bo dhe b1
bo perfaqeson normen nominale te interesit kur norma e inflacionit eshte zero, qe
ne rastin tone
eshte 2.713
b1 mat ndryshimin ne normen nominale te interesit si rezultat I ndryshimit me nje
njesi te
normes se inflacionit. Ne kete rast, me nje ndryshim me nje njesi ne normen e
inflacionit,
norma nominale e interesit ndryshone me 1.232
Intervali i besimit per vleresimin e koeficientit te pjerresise
Lower 95% =1.14
Upper 95%= 1.324
Me nivel te besueshmerise 95%, intervali i besueshmerise per pjerresine eshte:
( 1.14, 1.324 )
Bejme parashikime permes ekuacionit te regresionit
Supozojme se norma e inflacionit eshte 5%, atehere norma nominale e interesit do
te jete:
Norma nominale e interest= 2.713+1.232 Norma e inflacionit
Norma nominale e interest= 2.713+1.232*(5)
Norma nominale e interest= 8.87
y X Ý SSE SSR
11.9 7.7 12.1994 0.08964036 5.29276036
9.4 4 7.641 3.094081 47.045881
7.5 3.1 6.5322 0.93663684 63.48583684
4 1.6 4.6842 0.46812964 96.34992964
11.3 4.8 8.6266 7.14706756 34.49682756
66.3 51.7 66.4074 0.01153476 2694.378175
2.2 2 5.177 8.862529 86.918329
10.3 6.8 11.0906 0.62504836 11.62400836
7.6 4.4 8.1338 0.28494244 40.52850244
21.51960996 3080.12025
ȳ =14.5
Ý=2.713+1.232x
sse=Σ(Y-Ý)^2=21.5
SSR=Σ(Ý -ȳ)^2=3080.12
SST=SSR+SSE=3101.64