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An experimental study of Crime Prediction using Machine Learning

Algorithms

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 May – June 2020
ISSN: 0193-4120 Page No. 17819 - 17825

An experimental study of Crime Prediction using

Machine Learning Algorithms
Ms.Sikhniam Nagamani1, Ms.I.Bhavishya2, Mr. B.Vijay Kumar3, Ms.T.Geetha Sree4
1,2,3,4
Lakireddy Bali Reddy College of Engineering, Mylavaram, Andhra Pradesh, India
1
luckiestmani@gmail.com,
2
bhavishyainuganti@gmail.com, vijaykumarbarige@gmail.com,4geethasree.tati@gmail.com
3

Article Info Abstract

Volume 83
Page Number: 17819 - 17825
Publication Issue:
May - June 2020
Article History
Article Received: 1May 2020
Revised: 11 May 2020
Accepted: 20 May 2020
Publication: 24May 2020
Crime in present society is a great troubling issue that is prevailing which makes it hard to
avoid. Many cases are recorded on a daily basis at many places. Since there are numerous
cases that have been registered, it is necessary to maintain a database which makes it useful
for future use. The present issue that is faced is maintaining of legitimate crime datasets and
analysing the information to assist in anticipating and understanding the issues that may
arise in future. The main purpose of this is to predict the crimes that might happen in the
foreseeing future with the help of datasets that are available by capturing the crimes from
the past and present. We use the machine learning algorithms for analysing and predicting
crimes from crime datasets. Websites like kaggle provides required datasets. Data is a
mixture of type of crime, description, time and date, latitude and longitude. After gathering
datasets pre processing is performed to remove noisy data and fill incomplete records which
leads to high accuracy. Different algorithms like LightGBM will be performed for crime
estimation, only the algorithm which gives high accuracy is be selected. Crimes are
displayed with relation to the day, time and area of their occurrence. The sole purpose of this
idea is to predict crimes with utilization of effective machine learning algorithms which
reduces the rate of crimes by predicting them and taking precautions

I. INTRODUCTION The problem that is raised made us to search for a

Crimes are the noticeable danger to the mankind.
There are numerous crimes that happen very often
[1]. The rate at which crimes are happening has
increased a lot over the time. Violations occur in a
wide range of communities and places. There are
certain types of crimes and they are categorised as
battery, robbery, homicide, murder, rape, assault,
kidnapping and false imprisonment. As a result of
this huge inclination of crimes there is a need to find
solution to stop them in every way possible. The
police needs assistance to control these mishaps.
Crime prediction [6] and recognition of the criminal
are considered as serious problems for the officials
due to the huge information which needs to be
checked for confirmation and matching the criminal.
The need to find a better way of solving this issue
has a great significance.
Published by: The Mattingley Publishing Co., Inc.
solution on how to solve a crime case in a simple
method. On studying many documentations and
various different cases a conclusion was formed that
using machine learning can make things work
accordingly.
The datasets contain many features which helps us
to predict crimes. Data is gathered from many
locations and hence it is separated with regard to the
occurrence of place of crime and time of the day,
month, year and also type of crime [2]. Making
python as centre along with machine learning [1]
algorithms it is possible to predict crimes that will
happen at a particular area in a particular time.
To perform prediction the first step is to train a
model. Training is the process of validating test
datasets with the help of training datasets. The
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model is completely build by choosing algorithms
which gives better accuracy and precision.
LightGBM characterization and other calculation
will be utilized for crime forecast. Displaying of
datasets is necessary which leads to check the
crimes that occurred in the country. This particular
work reduces the complexity for prediction of
crimes and eventually helps the officials to halt the
rate of crimes that are committed.
II. LITERATURE SURVEY
A lot of researchers confronted with different types
of problems involving crime control and came up
with distinct crime prediction algorithms. There are
certain constraints to be satisfied to declare an
algorithm is successful. Accuracy of prediction is
solely based on the attributes that are chosen from
the data sets.
Crime is the most predominant action across the
world [1]. Tracking such crimes need a colossal
framework and activities should be intended to deal
with the datasets. Vancouver city’s data which is
collected from 15 years is taken as datasets which is
analysed. When K-nearest neighbours and supported
choice trees were used a result showing 39% to 44%
of accuracy was achieved.
Analysis [10] of crime for recognizing and
examining trends and patterns in crimes. With the
expanding starting point of electronic frameworks,
crime data analytics can help the Law authorization
officials to accelerate the way toward solving
crimes. Utilizing the idea of data mining [2], we can
break down already known, helpful data from
unstructured information. Predictive policing
implies, utilizing logical and predictive techniques,
to distinguish criminal and it has been seen as
essentially successful in doing likewise. In light of
the expanded crime percentage throughout the years,
we should deal with an enormous amount of crime
information stored in warehouses which would be
hard to be examined physically. Now a days
criminals are getting advanced in technology, so
there is huge requirement to utilize advance
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innovations so as to keep police in front of them.
The main focus is the survey of algorithms and
techniques utilized for identifying the criminals.
Crime analysis [8] is stated as methodology for
recognising the crime regions [1]. Crime type differs
from every crime region; every zone is helpful to
reduce the percentage of crime. This is very difficult
to differentiate the crime zones; with the help of this
procedure the crime percentage can be studied. As
the use of computers is expanding it is evident to say
that data analysts are considered as a great help to
police officials for tracing and analysing of crimes.
Clustering [3] and pre processing techniques are
performed on the data to extract Crime areas from
structured data [9] .In early days the factors of crime
mainly dependent on the details of criminal and
other factors. But the present system mainly
concentrates on the regions in which the crimes took
place. Naive bayes order was utilized in the existing
system and the fuzzy C-Means algorithm[7] will be
used in the present framework, to cluster the crime
data for all recognizable crimes, for example, theft,
Burglary, Kidnapping, murder, cheating, wrong-
doing against ladies, burglary and other crimes
Security is considered as important part. Many
organisations and the government of many countries
are working very hard to stop crime and provide
safety to their people. Reduction of crimes seems
like a huge challenge because it needs storing and
utilization of large sets of information. So to access
huge amount of data a crime data system is needed,
it reduces the crime for analysts to find crime zones
,crime patterns and also to predict future events.
Datasets are preprocessed and two methodologies
are applied and two different results are retrieved
which are to be compared.
III. PROPOSED SYSTEM
3.1 Predictive modelling:
Predictive modelling is defined as the method for
building a model that is equipped for making
expectations. This procedure includes a technique of
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machine learning which takes in specific properties
from a dataset to make those forecasts.
It can be distinguished into two different areas;
those are regression [11] and pattern classification.
Forecasting is done with the help of regression
models, it depends on analyzing the connection
between the factors and crime patterns which leads
to make forecast.
Unlike models of regression [5], pattern
classifications main theme is to produce a different
class names to a specific detail data as a product of
forecasting. A real time example involving
classification model is climate estimation which has
various types of weather conditions.
Further pattern classification is divided into two
parts. Supervised learning and Unsupervised
learning. In supervised learning the class mark
which are needed to build a classification model are
cognizant. In this type of learning we would know
what will be the yield of a specific preparing dataset
that will be used to prepare with the goal that
forecast can be made for incomplete information.
Predictive model algorithm types:
mainly between atleast one illustrative factor
indicated X and a scalar dependent variable Y.
Instance of X is called simple linear regression.
Logistic Regression is a type of regression in which
the dependent variableis either categorical or binary.
Data preprocessing:
This procedure incorporates strategies to omit any
infinite or invalid terms which prove to influence
exactness of the system. Formatting, cleaning and
sampling are primary important steps for omitting or
filling missing data cleaning is performed.
To reduce the runtime of the algorithm sampling is
performed. This procedure produces suitable
information which is needed.
3.2 Functional Diagram of Proposed System
It is divided into 4 sections:
1. Illustrative examination on given data
2. Treatment of Information
3. Information Modelling
4. Prediction [4] of execution

Classification and Decision Trees are two types of

predictive modelling classification algorithms.
Decision tree algorithm uses a tree structured graph
or group of options which includes chance location
results, expenses, utilities.

Naive Bayes classifiers are one of the machine

learning [12] classifiers which are very straight
forward anticipated classifier relying on
implementing bayes theorem with liberation
presumptions. This system designs classifier models
and then these models allocate discrete class names
to publish examples, symbolized as course of special
values where the limited set features helps to draw
Fig 1: Architecture for crime prediction
class marks.
Prepare Data
Linear Regression is a type of analysis [4] which is
based on true methods for inspecting connections 1. The given information is shaped exactly for better
that are between the factors. These connections are analysis.
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2. Data Cleaning
Data Cleaning is investigation and transformation of
variables. We can use one of the following methods
Standardization or Normalization and Missing value
treatment
Random sampling
 In training sample a model will be created a
near 70% to 80% of the information is put into the
example model.
 In test sample the exhibitions of the model
will be approved with regard to this example, it
takes about 20% to 30% of the data.
Model Selection
Bearing in mind the defined goals we need to select
one of the modelling methods or blends. As in the
cases of
 LightGBM
 Random Forest
 KNN Classification
 Logistic Regression
 Support Vector Machine
 Bayesian methods
Build/Train/Develop models
 Check the verified calculation presumptions.
 Generate or train sample model, which is
accessible data.
 Test model accuracy mistake.
Validate or Test models
 Measure sample score and predict.
 Check model performance with accuracy and
so on.
IV. IMPLEMENTATION
The datasets that are using are taken from the
website kaggle. These data sets are stored and
updated by police department.
Implementation consists of following steps
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ISSN: 0193-4120 Page No. 17819 - 17825
4.1 Data preprocessing
The dataset contains 10 thousand entries. The null
values are removed using df=df.dropna(),
Where df is the outline of details. The categorical
attributes(location, street, type of crime and
community area) are converted into label encoder
numeric. The data attribute is divided into new
attributes such as month and hour that can be used
as the model’s function.
4.2 Feature selection
Selection of features is done which can be utilized to
build the outline. Block, Location, City, Community
area, X organize, Y promote, Latitude, Longitude,
Hour and Month are the attributes used for
visualization.
4.3 Building and Training model
Since the field of collection of features and the
consistency of the month are used for planning. The
dataset is divided into the xtrain, ytrain and xtest, y
classes. The architecture of the algorithms is sklearn
of an imported structure. Model building is finished
using software Appropriate(xtrain,ytrain).
4.4 Prediction
Once the model is assembled using the method
mentioned above, prediction is finished using
model.predict(xtest). The accuracy is calculated
using the measurement-imported accuracy score-
metrics.accuracy score (ytest,predicted).
4.5 Visualization
Usage of sklearnmathplotlib library analysis of the
crime dataset is done by illustrating different maps.
4.6 Results and Discussion
The tests are acquired in the wake of undertaking
different procedures which go through machine
learning.
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K Neighbours 0.7173

Gaussian NB 0.646

Multinomial NB 0.456

Bernoulli NB 0.313

SVC 0.313

Decision Tree 0.586

Crime visualization
This section works with the study conducted on the
dataset and plots it into different charts like those of
bar, pie.
Research done were forms of crimes committed.
Fig 2: Comparision for the random forest and
LightGBM 1. No criminal offenses of any sort in country.

Predictive Modelling 2. Ratio of imprisoned.

Preprocessing data integrates slipping line without 3. Crimes committed across regions.
any row and turning over any value that has value as 4. Information of major crimes in the area.
infinity. Changing over string variable to numeric
variable with the objective that more training can be
endured.

The model is prepared with algorithms as listed in

the table in the face of partitioning the data index
introduction preparing set and testing set. The
accuracy is measured using a feature score precision
imported from sklearn metric. The exactness is
given in the table below.

From what we see in the results obtained from the

table, the algorithm that can be used for predictive
modelling will be greater than the algorithms in
LightGBMwith 0.9688 accuracy.

The least that can be used would be SVM. There is

no need to use other calculations for further display
using unseen data.
Fig 3: Types of crimes committed
Algorithm Accuracy
The most crimes happened in the city are shown in
LightGBM 0.9688 this graph. The x coordinate shows the crime types
that have been committed and y coordinate
Random Forest 0.7772

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represents the number of crimes that have been
reported.
Fig 4: Crimes occurred per day
The crimes that occurred more in number is
described in the graph below. It is visible that that
Friday has high rate of occurrence.
Fig 5: Action of crime
The number of convicted persons in the city is
shown in the graph above. The x coordinate
indicates the arrest made or not. The y coordinate
indicates the number of crimes.
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Fig 6: Crimes occurred in location
Frequently occurring crimes are visualized in the
above chart. More number of crimes occurred in
Northern and lowest occurred in Richmond.
V. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE
ENHANCEMENT
With the assistance of machine learning, it has
gotten simple to discover connection and patterns
among different data's. The work right now spins
around predicting the type of crimes which may
occur on the off chance that we have the knowledge
of where it has occurred. Utilizing the principle of
machine learning, we constructed a model using
training dataset that cleaned up data and transform
data. The model predicts 0.9688 accuracy for the
form of crime. Representation of data analysis
assists in analysing data collection. The graphs used
are bar charts and pie charts each of which have
their own qualities. We have generated several
graphs and discovered interesting metrics that
helped to explain crime statistics and helped to
identify factors that can help to protect society. The
limitation of LightGBM is it has narrow user base
and it is changing fast. In future we can overcome
this by using XGBOOST
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