AD 353 Management Science

Mon @10:00am NB110

Managerial Decision Modeling - to make better
decisions.
There is more to this class than problem-solving and data-analytics skills and Excel proficiency.
This class is intended to be a milestone in your lifelong learning journey to become data-driven
decision-makers.

Course Objective
Structuring managerial decision models that represent complex problems from a wide range
of business areas, including operations, marketing, finance, and strategy; analyzing and
ultimately solving such models - on spreadsheets - applying analytical techniques including
optimization, simulation, and decision trees.

Scope
Optimal resource allocation (how to best utilize available resources)
Risk analysis (how to incorporate uncertainty in problem parameters)
Decision analysis (how to synthesize a sequence of decisions involving uncertainty)

Prerequisites
Some familiarity with functional areas of management such as operations, finance, and
marketing. Basic statistical and financial concepts such as net present value, discounted cash
flow analysis, random variables, probability distributions, expected values, variance, and so on.
Working knowledge of Spreadsheet software, such as MS Excel.

Class Participation
Everyone is expected to attend classes and actively participate in class discussions and activities
(including quizzes). Students are expected to read the corresponding chapter before attending the
lecture.

Software Requirements
Microsoft Excel 2010 or newer for Windows. Excel add-ins: Solver (comes with installation),
Simulation Supplement (will be distributed), SolverTable (can be downloaded from the
following link: SolverTable Add-In)

Textbook:

Hillier, FS and Hillier, MS 2020. Introduction to Management Science: A Modeling and Case
Studies Approach with Spreadsheets, 7th Ed., McGraw Hill.
There are several other books that cover the subject (some of these are):
Taylor III, B. W., Introduction to Management Science, 11th Edition, Prentice Hall, 2012.
Render B., Stair R. M., Hanna M.E., Quantitative Analysis for Management, 9th Edition,
Prentice Hall, 2006.
Moore JH, Weatherford LR, Decision Modeling with Microsoft Excel, 6th edition, Prentice
Hall, 2001.
Powell S. G., Baker K. R., Management Science: The art of modeling with spreadsheets, 2nd
ed. Wiley, 2009.
Williams T., Management Science in Practice, Wiley, 2008.
Winston & Albright, Practical Management Science, 5th Ed Cengage (Available e.g., at
www.akademikitabevi.com or www.caglayan.com)

Weekly Schedule
Week 1: Introduction to Decision Modeling; Review of Excel: Goal Seek, Data Tables
Week 2: Linear Programming in Excel: Goal Seek, Data Tables, Solver
Week 3: Optimization Modeling: Solver, Sensitivity Analysis
Week 4: Art of Spreasheet Modeling: Excel, Solver,
Week 5: Integer Optimization and Binary Variables
Week 6: Nonlinear Optimization; Financial Risk Management.
Week 7: Review and Midterm Exam
Week 8: MCDM, Decision Analysis
Week 9: Introducing Uncertainty: Probability distribution, Bayesian Prob.
Week 10: Simulation using The Rand() function;
Week 11: Queuing Models
Week 12: Analyzing sequential decisions: Expected value of information

Objections to Grades
Please write to @Umut İlbeyli at slack for objections/corrections to grade within two weeks. No
grade update after this period ends.
The only exception is when we don't score your work promptly. In that case, you can reach us
within a week after the evaluation.

Performance Evaluation - 1000 points total

Students are expected to read the chapters assigned by the instructor before coming to the
classes, and therefore can actively participate in class discussions.
There will be one mid-term test and a final examination. The final exam will be comprehensive.
A term project will be assigned for groups of at most three. More information regarding these
projects will be announced later.

The final letter grades will be determined by the instructor based on students’ performance on
the examinations, and inclass assignments. The weight of each assessment component is
tentatively given as 30% Exams, 40% Final Exam and 30% inclass assignments. Generally
passing grade from the course is 70 points (CC), and a collection of less than 40 points will
receive an FF.

Exams. There is a midterm exam on computer (in person at school). 30 points at week 7. And there is one
final exam (TBA) that is inclusive all the topics.It is 40 points and written exam.

Project. The project is 30 points, and could be carried out by at most 4 students, and at least 2. The aim of
the project is to observe and analyze a probabilistic problem, e.g. the payment queue at a cafetaria or the utilization
of the campus ring service. Observe the system and develop a Monte Carlo simulation to it After running enough
long experiments write. Report that discusses the problems and suggest possible solutions. No presentation is
required but you must divide the job among friends so that they will do equal amount of work. Note that simulation
principle will be discussed during week 8.

While observing the model, one must collect data for the random events and then fit a distribution or curve for such
events. Later use the excel Rand() function to generate random events and follow how each event is executed.
Goodluck

Academic Honesty: Cheating and Plagiarism

Hexham (2005) defines plagiarism as a planned deliberate action to deceive the reader by pretending to
be someone's word or words. Academic plagiarism is also in the form of an author's use of more than four
words in his own research, without using quotation marks from a written source, without a precise
reference to the original source published before, or in the form of similar fraudulent behavior in
scholarship-application forms he wrote to contribute to his research. defines.
• Actions that can be defined as contrary to publication ethics in the scientific community are defined as
follows;
- plagiarism, - cheating, - paraphrasing,
- fabrication and falsification of data,
-to help copying and plagiarism, -To prevent others from accessing a source or data,
- Appearing as a writer in joint studies without contributing,
-Use of widely known / anonymous information, -No regular attribution,
-Self plagiarism etc.
• Not everything on the Internet is public and cannot be obtained without permission or reference.
• Studies conducted without proper reference are graded with a score of zero.
• Large amounts of manuscripts copied without being quoted will be considered plagiarism and you will be
responsible.
• Please be aware that the penalties for plagiarism can range from grading homework to dropping you out
of class.
• If you copied, plagiarized or copied / pasted, do not expect the instructor of the course to write you a
reference letter or to be your advisor.
• How is plagiarism penalized?
 If it is revealed that you have overcame the course, the instructor of the course will refer to the program
coordinator. Depending on the seriousness of the situation, the Program Coordinator decides with the
committee the appropriate penalty from giving a grade of 0 from the homework grade to leaving the
course. In any case, the student has the right to defend himself.

Prepared by Name Surname and Date of Preparation:

Dr. Yavuz Günalay, 30.11.2023 v23.2