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EST 2011 - Muller
EST 2011 - Muller
EST 2011 - Muller
lead in front of the U.S. (11 t/cap). Although China’s per that postindustrial societies still need to maintain and replace
capita iron stock (2.2 t/cap) is only about 20-25% that of substantial iron stocks in use.
industrialized countries, due to its large population, it Several industrialized countries, however, show clear signs
constitutes the second largest iron stock in use. India, which of a flattening of their iron stocks at levels between 8 and 12
has a similar population multiplier, has about five times t/cap, which gives rise to an alternative hypothesis: that iron
smaller iron stocks (0.4 t/cap) than China. In comparison, stocks in use grow during industrialization, but saturate in
Hatayama et al. (19) estimated the global in-use iron stock postindustrial societies. The saturation hypothesis is sup-
to be 12.7 Gt or about 2 t/cap, thus slightly less (probably ported by the results found for the U.S., France, and the
due to differences in the lifetime assumptions). U.K., while Japan shows signs of a flattening of per-capita
Primary iron resources tend to be strongly represented in iron stocks during the past decade. However, Australia and
the Southern hemisphere, while secondary iron resources Canada have still growing per-capita iron stocks.
are more concentrated in the Northern hemisphere. The
A more conclusive explanation of this behavior is not
largest exception is Africa, which neither disposes of large
(identified) primary nor secondary iron resources. While possible on the basis of the highly aggregated data currently
South America seems to be well endowed with iron ore for available. However, it can be hypothesized that the continuing
its industrialization, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia are growth of iron stocks in Australia and Canada results from
more likely to depend on imports over the coming decades. the heavy dependence of their economies on the mining
sector. The strong growth in global minerals use over the
past years has led to substantial investments in iron-intensive
Discussion infrastructures and machinery for mining in these countries
The discovered patterns of iron stocks in use confirm and (for example railways and harbors for ore transport or water
complement previous studies of IU patterns. The decreasing and electricity supply to remote mining sites). The growing
IU for steel observed for many industrialized countries (29) per-capita iron stocks in Australia and Canada might therefore
is in line with and could be explained by a tendency for reflect a prolonged industrialization process due to their focus
per-capita iron stocks to flatten off at a certain point while on exploiting resources for export to emerging market
GDP remains growing. Speculations about an absolute economies. Although the mining sector usually absorbs a
decoupling in steel demand, however, cannot be supported relatively small fraction of the total steel production, it might
by this study: none of the analyzed countries shows a be very large on a per-capita basis for countries with 2 orders
shrinking per-capita iron stock in use, which would be needed of magnitude smaller population than China or India
for long-term absolute decoupling of steel demand. Given providing a large share of the giants’ resources. The hy-
the stock patterns observed, a more plausible scenario is pothesis that per-capita iron stocks in use relate to the degree