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GROWTH GOOD

THE IMPACTS

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A) EGONOMIC COIL"APSE

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zalmay Kharirzad, Speciar Envoy To Afghanstan, g5 (washington Quarterry Lexis)

Vacuum.

rilc iltwcttu-tuoKln lnore of its external interests. Rs tne UniteO States weakened,

B) TH|S CAUSES NUCLEAR WAR

zalmay Kharirzad, speciar Envoy to Afghan.istan g5 (washington Quarterry exi) ,

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would therefore be of power system.

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, U.S. leadership bipolar or a muttipolar Oalan

It's the end of the world

as we know it...

.9.

Land Value DA
[55/67]

U.S. key - GDP U.S. News and

\ilorld Report,2003 (Show some steel, Mr.

Bush,

http ://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/articles/O3

I I 24124dobbs.htm)

The Bush administration may be forced to take further action. The global economy is absolutely dependent on the United States. This country carries an annual current-account deficit of $48 I billion with the rest of the world. Our gross domestic product was more than $10 trillion in 2002. greater than the next five countries combined. The success or failure of the American economlv is more than important to the rest of the world. U.S. key - markets

The Toronto Starr 2004 (Preparing for the inevitable U.S.-led correction, lexis) This is not an idle consideration. The world economy - including the Canadian economy - is highly dependent on the U.S. economy toda:. By running its big budget and current account deficits. the United States is acting as the principle engine of the global economy. serving as a vast market for foreign goods and services. Yet this also makes the world economv extremely vulnerable to shifts in U.S.
circumstances. US key

spending levels

William K Tabb, Prof @ Queens College, 5/ll12006 (Graduate Center of the University of New York, Trouble, Trouble, Debt, and
Bubble, http ://www.monthlyreview.org/0506tabb.htm The questions regarding U.S. macroeconomic policy these days come down to whether the country can keep borrowing. Can consumers keep spending by increasing their debt level? Can the federal government keep running a large budget deficit without serious problems developing? Can the U.S. current account defcit keep growing? Will foreigners keep buying government bonds to cover this growing debt? If the answer is no to such questions, we can expect serious trouble and not just for the United Sta&stutfo,r the rest of the world. which has grown used to the United States as the consumer of last resort. The United States buys 50 ercent more than it sells overseas. enough to sink any other economy. In another economy, such a deficit would lead to a severe devaluation of the currency, sharply inflating the price of imports and forcing the monetary authorities to push interest rates up considerably'

Land Value DA
I54t67l

US economic collapse

will spread globally, specifically China and Japan

Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2004,

("America's Sticky Power", lexis) Similarly, in the last 60 years, as foreigners have acquired a greater value in the United States-government and private bonds, direct and portfolio private investments-more and more of them have acquired an interest in maintaining the strength of the U.S.-led system' A collapse of the U.S. economy and the ruin of the dollar would do more than dent the prosperity of the United ltates. Without their best customer. countries including China and Japan would fall into depressions. The financial strength of ever.v countrY would be
severely shaken should the United States collapse. Under those circumstances, debt becomes a strength, not a weakness, and other countries fear to break with the United States because they need its market and own its securities. Of course, pressed too far. a large national debt can turn from a source of strength to a crippling liability, and the United States must continue to justi other countries' fuittt UV maintaining its long-term record of meeting its financial obligations. But, like Samson in the temple of the Philistines, g collaing U.S. econom) would inflict enormous. unacceptable damage on the rest of the world. That is sticky power with a
vengeance.

Chinese economic collapse causes multiple nuclear wars. Depres 2001 (Former Assistant Secretary of Commerce & Private Consultant,China, the United States, and the Global Economy, ed.
Chen

& Wolf)

Nevertheless, America's main interests in China have been quite constant, natnely peace, security, prosperity, and a healthy environment. Chinese interests in the United States have also been quite constant and largely compatible, notwithstanding sharp differences overTaiwan, strategic technology transfers, trade, and human rights. Indeed, U.S.-Chinese relations have been consistently driven bl strong common interests in preventing mutually damaging wars in Asia that could involve nuclear weaPons: in ensurinB that Taiwan's relations with the mainland remain peaceful: in sustainins the srowth of the U.S.. China. and other Asian-Pacific economies: and, in preservins natural environments that sustain healthv and productive lives. What happens in China matters to Americans. It affects America's prosperity. China's growing economy is a vallable.market to r*ny **ets, farmers, and businesses across America, not just to large multinational firms like Boeing, Microsoft, and Motorola, and it could become much more valuable by opening its markets further. China also affects America's security. It could either help to stabilize or destabilize currently peaceful but sometimes tense and dangerous situations in Korea, where U.S. troops are on the front line; in the Taiwan Straits, where U.S. democratic values and strategic credibility may be at staket and in nuclear-armed South Asia. where renewed warfare could lead to terrible consequences. It also affects America's environment. Indeed, how China meets its iising energy needs and protects its dwindling habitats will affect the global atmosphere and currently endangered species' Continues Great common interests and risks of serious conflicts between the United gtates and China will keep raising difficult new challenges' They will require new initiatives for mutually beneficial cooperation nd continuous efforts to avoid potentially critical misunderstandings over unforeseeable events in Taiwan. Korea. Japan. the Persian Gulf. Yugoslavia. or elsewhere. Without doubt, sustaining Chinais economic growth and reinforcing its institutional reforms though greater openness is a winning PrescriPtion for both the United States and China.

And, Japanese economic collapse causes nuclear war.

Elliott 02 (The Guardian Staff Writer, 2-l l, Lexis)

Even so, the west cannot afford to be complacent about what is happening in Japan, unless it intends to use the country as a test case to explore whether a full-scale depression is less painful now than it was 70 years ago. Action is needed, and quickly because this is an e"no*y that could soak up some of the worldls excess capacity if functioning properly. A strong Japan is not only essential for the long-term health of the global economy, it is also needed as a counter-weight to the growing power of China. A collapse in the Japnese economy, which looks ever more likely, would have profound ramifications; some experts believe it could even unleash a wave of extreme nationalism that would push the country into conflict with its bigger (and nuclear) neighbour.

Land Value DA
[56/67]

Economic Gollapse = Nuclear War

Economic collapse leads to nuclear war. Cook 37 [Richard C. (retired federal analyst, U.S. Civil Service Commission, the Food and Drug Administation, the Cartr White House, and NASA); "It's Official: The Crash of the U.S. Economy has begun"; Global Research; June 14; hr :/vww.globalresearch.calindex.php?conxeva& aid= 59 64 I I ion)
Times of economic crisis produce international tension and polificians tend to go to war rather thn face the economic musiQ.Ihg classic example is the worldwide deoression of the 1930s leading to world war II' conditions in he coming )es could be as bad as they were then. We could have a really big war if the U.S, decides once and for all to haul offand let Chin. or whomever. have it in the choos. If the,y don't want our dollars or our debt any more. how about a few nukes?

Econ Impact Economic collapse is the biggest and most immediaterobable impact AP,2009
Bangaro Daily News, Economic Threats, 2ll7 ,http//www.bangomews.com/detaiV9972l.htl

instabilitv not terrorism or nuclear weapons is the biggest threat to U.S. security, according to the country's intelligence director. From regime change pushed by economic unrest to
Global economic

growing humanitarian disasters to neglected defense missions, growing and spreading fnancial problems around the world are likely to harm the United States and its interests, National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair told Congress last week. It was the first assessment in six years that did not cite terrorism as the biggest

threat. "The longer it takes for the recoverv to begin. the greater the likelihood of serious damagg to U.S. strategic interests," he told the Senate Intelligence Committee. What he didn't say is that these threats could rther drain the U.S. Treasury. Of course, Mr. Blair also wamed of the dangers still posed by al-Qaida, the
deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and the suspected nuclear activities in North Korea. He assured lawmakers that these areas would continue to get close attention by U.S. intelligence agencies. But, it was his emphasis on economic instability, while Congress debated the contents and size of a spending and tax cut bill to jump-start the economy, that was unsettling. As financial instabililv spreads to countries with already shaky regimes

and weak financial systems. such as some in Latin America. Africa and former Soviet republics. some governments could be toppled and political unrest will become more widespread. Mr. Blair
noted that a quarter of the world's counhies already have experienced some level of instabiliry during the current recession.

Violent extremism. such as that seen in the 1920s and 1930s. also will become more
adds up to more financial

prevalent. As a result, more refugees are likely to seek their way to the U.S. All of this
stress for the U.S.

$pug os'
BRETT

ECONOMY PG OF

BUDGET DEFICIT GOOD - TECH

DEFICIT KEY TO HEG A) CUTTING DEF'ICIT HURTS TECH

$g!,

Senior Fellow in China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, (Adam, Is America Losing its Edge? Foreign Aftirs Vol 83 Issue 6)

20S

At home, Washington should not strive to identify the next big thing. Rather, policymakers should ensure that the United States remains the most dynamic innovation system. Funding for science and education must be maintained. Althougr it migtrt be tempting to shink the budget deficit by reducing discretionary funding for the sciences. this would weaken one of the pillars of the country's future economic and technological health. Money for basic research. especially in the ohylical sciences and engineering. and suooort for the National Science Foundation should therefore be maintained at current levels or increased.

B) TECH KEY TO $gg!,

HEcEMOry
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Senior Fellow in China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, (Adam, Is America Losing its Edge? Foreign Affairs Vol 83 Issue 6)

The United States' global primacy depends in lar&e part on its ability to develop new technologies and industries faster than anyone else. For the last five decades. U.S. scientific innovation and technological entrepreneurship have ensured the country's economic prosperitv and military power. It was Americans who invented and commercialized the semiconductor. the personal computer. and the Internet other

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Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefnite future. On balance. this is the best lone-term zuiding principle and vision. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself. but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have temendous advantages. Fist. the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values democracy. free markets. and the rule of law. Second. such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems. such as nuclear proliferation. threats of regional he&emony by renegade states. and lowJevel conflicts. Finall],. U.S. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival. enabling the United Sates and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers. including a global nuclear exchange. U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bolar or a multipolar balance of power system.