How the World Bank is using Scientific Climate Models Data

in its projects: the case of Pakistan

Maryam Malik1, Gabriel Medeiros2, Silvia Cabrita3
Institute of Social Sciences, University of Lisbon, Portugal

ABSTRACT
The frequency of extreme weather events has increased globally due to warming climate; however, the impact of
extreme events is disproportionately high in developing countries. Pakistan’s contributes to less than 1% of GHGs
emissions yet it one of the most affected by climate change, resulting in massive floods. Pakistan has been a
member of World Bank since 1950. Since then, has been provided US$40 billion in assistance to various
developmental projects. This work explores how the World Bank uses climate models to support its projects and
raise the discussion about clear guidelines related to infrastructure projects, ensuring that these projects are
developed according to Climate Models provided by the World Bank platform.

Key words: Climate Change, Climate Models, World Bank (WB), Pakistan.

1. Introduction Table 1- Historical Flood events in Pakistan

Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change and faces Sr. No Y ear Dead Displaced M ajor Cause

1 2022 1739 33,000,000 Monsoon Rain

multiple threats due to climate change, including
2 2020 410 1,550,000 Monsoon Rain
glacier melting, extreme precipitation, massive floods
(Table 1- Historical Flood events in Pakistan), 3 2015 238 1,572,191 Torrential Rain

droughts and sea-level rise (Khan et al., 2019). 4 2014 255 2,530,000 Monsoon Rain

Moreover, based on the climate deluges experienced 5 2013 234 1,496,870 Monsoon Rain

from 2000 to 2019, Pakistan is among the top 10 6 2012 480 5,046,462 Monsoon Rain

countries in the global climate risk index, highlighting 7 2011 509 5,400,000 Monsoon Rain

the climate vulnerability from extreme weather events 8 2010 1985 20,356,550 Monsoon Rain
(Eckstein et al., 2021). Most of the country receives 9 2006 223 - Monsoon Rain
very little rainfall, except for Northern regions and Heavy rains &
10 2005 520 7,000,000
inter-annual rainfall varies significantly, often leading 11 1998 1000 200,000
snow
Heavy rain
to successive patterns of floods and drought (Word 12 1995 600 600,000 Monsoon Rain

Bank, 2021). Floods are a frequent phenomenon in 13 1994 3161 840,000 Monsoon Rain
Pakistan, driven mainly by heavy precipitation during 14 1992 1334 6,655,450 Monsoon Rain
the summer monsoon season and occasionally by
15 1978 393 2,236,000
tropical cyclones. During the monsoon season, between
16 1977 848 777,000
July and August, the country receives about 255mm of
17 1976 338 5,556,000
rain per month, on average. Extreme precipitation is
18 1973 474 4,800,000
projected to increase in a warming climate, which
highlights the strong need of adaptation and 19 1956 270 -

mitigation. 20 1954 300 -

Source: EM-DAT

1
*Corresponding Author
E-mail address: maryammalik16@hotmail.com
 Figure 1- Monthly Climatology (1991-2020)
Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal
The “monster” flood of August 2022 in Pakistan,
preceded by a devastating heat wave in May, has
disproportionately impacted the country’s southern
provinces.
Pakistan has been receiving financial support by the
World Bank (WB) since 1950. The current portfolio has
58 projects and a total commitment of $14.8 billion.
The WBG Country Partnership Framework with
Pakistan identifies climate change adaptation and
mitigation in public and private sectors. To serve as a
'one stop shop' for climate-related information and data,
the WB has created the Climate Change Knowledge
Portal (or CCKP). The Portal provides an online tool
for access to comprehensive global, regional, and
country data related to climate change.
This analysis focuses on evaluating WB performance
that is channeling substantial funds to climate and
resilient projects to countries that continue to face
persistent climate challenges issues and to analyze
whether these projects are planned according to the
Climate Models provided by the WB. It is essential to
know whether these climate models are being used to
avoid the impacts of climate change on the
communities in Pakistan and help to structure better
projects to deal with climate changes and risk.
2. Methodology
The methodology adopted for this work involves a
detailed analysis of various publications and reports
produced by the WB, with a specific focus on their
content related to climate models and climate change.
This analysis is complemented by evaluations from The
Independent Evaluation Group, which assesses the WB
Group's work to determine its effectiveness,
shortcomings, and reasons for its success or failure.
Additionally, the methodology incorporates a review of
Project Appraisal Documents (PAD) and Project
Implementation Documents (PID) for the selected
project and bibliographic sources that provide further
information into climate models and climate change to
help answer the research question, how climate models
have been used by World Bank to finance developing
countries for climate mitigation and adaptation: the
case of Pakistan.
3. How climate models have been used by WB
Applications of regional climate models span both the
past and possible future climates, facilitating climate
impact studies, information and support to climate
policy, and adaptation (Rummukainen, 2009). In other
words, climate models are critical for developing and
implementing projects that address mitigation and
adaptation to climate change and risk management.
Over the past 20 years, the development of regional
climate models has led to increased resolution, longer
model runs, and steps towards regional climate system
models (Rummukainen, 2009). These models offer
valuables insights about the future climate patterns,
helping to shape policies and initiatives that are both
resilient and effective. According to Chattopadhyay
and Jordan (2015), climate models are particularly
suited for assessment of long-term variability. This is
especially crucial for anticipating future scenarios that
can lead to more sustainable and efficient solutions.
Looking into the types of climate models, it's clear that
there is a diverse range of options available, even
though they are not always commonly used.
Chattopadhyay and Jordan (2015) present this universe,
which includes various climate-analysis models like
global circulation models (GCMs) and more recently
the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project version 5
(CMIP5). These models are particularly adept at
running long-term climate scenarios and generating
simulated historical data. This capability is important,
especially when original data is missing or of low
quality, offering a robust tool for informed decision-
making in the face of climate uncertainty
(Chattopadhyay and Jordan, 2015).
The use of climate models by the WB, was highlighted
for the first time at the IEG 2012 report, showcases the
potential and the limitations of these tools in
2
development planning and project implementation. The
Bank collect dataset for precipitation uncertainty, using
projections from multiple General Circulation Models
(GCMs) and emissions scenarios to assess hydrological
flows across thousands of river basins. These
projections, while informative for regional trends, are
cautioned against being used for specific project-level
work due to their scale (Chattopadhyay and Jordan,
2015)
The IEG 2012 Report reviewed studies using GCMs
and revealed that while the WB has innovatively
pioneered the use of climate models, their direct utility
in quantitative decision-making has been generally
limited. Most studies chose the traditional scenario-led
approach, with a significant portion recommending
low-regret adaptation options independent of specific
climate projections. In some cases, climate projections
informed sensitivity testing for project viability, as seen
in WB projects. However, only a few cases utilized
numerical predictions directly in project design.
Recognizing these limitations, the WB's Independent
Evaluation Group suggested a shift towards robust
decision-making methods. This approach would focus
on understanding how different investment options
respond to a range of potential climate outcomes, rather
than trying to predict exact future climates. It
emphasizes adaptive management, where policies and
programs evolve as uncertainties become clearer over
time.
Since then, WB has been using climate models in its
projects throughout a stress testing methodology,
making sure that the economic analyses of projects
adequately consider climate and disaster risks. In 2021
WB launched Climate Change Action Plan 2021-2025
that starts with the premise that climate change and
development need to be integrated 1. When considering
historical and projected trends in extreme weather—
including temperature, precipitation, flooding, and
drought—consulting relevant climate indices will
provide a better understanding of the intensity,
frequency, and duration of these events (World Bank,
2021). Depending on the nature of the project, different
aspects and considerations need to be made, for
example agricultural initiatives might look at changes
in the patterns of rainy seasons or indicators of drought
and projects in the energy sector could consider
variations in the number of days requiring heating or
cooling that might influence peak energy demand.
1
Information available here: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2021/08/12/is-your-
project-robust-to-the-impacts-of-climate-change-and-disasters
2
Interview, World Bank Climate Change Lead Economist Stéphane Hallegatte and Senior Climate
Change Specialist Veronique Morin. Available at:
Taking into consideration that climate models can have
very different projections, the choice of climate
scenarios can be based on multiple models. Trends
based on models can be complemented by other
sources, such as those derived from weather generators
and statistical downscaling, as well as stakeholder
consultations on recent weather/climate observations
and expert opinions (World Bank, 2021).
More recently, WB elaborated a rating to categorize its
projects according to its resilience, expressed in grades
from A+ to C, this rating categorized the confidence in
the project’s ability to avoid financial, environmental,
and social underperformance. A low rating means that
possible impacts of disasters and climate change on
project performance have not been fully explored
(World Bank, 2021), showing that the tools available,
such as the climate models and hydro models or others
accessible models has not been applied.
According to Climate Change Action Plan 2021-2025,
WB is setting the path to use more frequently climate
models into the climate stress test of its projects.
Stéphane Hallegatte, WB Climate Change Lead
Economist says that early results have demonstrated
that incorporating a climate and disaster risk stress test
is very complicated and has been applied in almost 20
projects2. For Hargreaves and Annan (2014) models are
very far from being perfect, so WB methodology does
not recommend predicting a revised net present value
or rate of return but suggests performing a stress test as
part of a project’s economic analysis using various
scenarios ranging from the most optimistic to the most
pessimistic, and to identify the conditions under which
the project may fail.
4. Climate Data available to Pakistan
The use of climate models has, over the recent years,
become an important issue for WB. In the case of
Pakistan, has become clear that climate risk needs to be
incorporated into the analysis. In the past years, WB
produced two important documents "Pakistan, country
climate and development report" and "Climate Risk
Country Profile of Pakistan" that primarily revolves
around analyzing and projecting climate impacts.
These documents show that warming in Pakistan was
estimated at 0.57°C, over the 20th century. To predict
the future of climate, datasets processes outputs of
<https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2021/08/12/is-your-project-robust-to-the-impacts-of-
climate-change-and-disasters>
3
simulations performed by multiple General Circulation 5. Climate Models Applied do WB Project’s in
Models (GCM) developed by climate research centers Pakistan
around the world and evaluated by the IPCC for quality
assurance in the CMIP5 iteration of models (Climate
Since 1973 WB as applied a total of approximately
Risk Country Profile: Pakistan, 2021) made available
US$3 billion in climate resilience projects in Pakistan
by the WB at the Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
(Table 2 - Climate Resilient WB Projects in Pakistan)
In synthesis, these documents show that according to
specially in urban infrastructure to mitigate flood risks.
predictions made by climate models, the frequency, and
the intensity of extreme climate events, such as heat
Table 2 - Climate Resilient WB Projects in Pakistan
waves, droughts, and floods are projected to increase,
causing more damages to Pakistan, showing that not Project I d Project Name Approval Amount (US$M) I CR Review
P159292 Flood Rehabilitation Program 1974 35,0 USD Satisfactory
only is needed to promote more resilient infrastructure P010415 Flood Damage Restoration Project 1993 100,0 USD Satisfactory
but also is needed to invest in mitigation. Environment protection and resource
P010399 conservation 1999 57,2 USD Satisfactory
The climate models show that in all scenarios, a trend P010421 Northern resource management project 2000 32,0 USD Satisfactory

of increasing temperatures over time, with variations in P010453 Balochistan Natural Resources Management 2001 7,0 USD Unsatisfactory
Moderately
the rate and magnitude of increase depending on the P010481 Punjab Forest Sector Development 2002 17,0 USD Satisfactory
Moderately
emissions, as presented in figure 2, followed by the P010478 NWFP Community First Infrastructure Project 2004 38,8 USD Unsatisfactory
same trend when related to precipitation, show in figure P010500 National Drainage Program 2007 226,5 USD Unsatisfactory
Moderately
3, the two main causes of damage in Pakistan. P035823 Protected Areas Management 2011 10,8 USD Satisfactory
Second NWFP Community Infrastructure Moderately
P082621 Project 2011 53,3 USD Unsatisfactory
Figure 2 – Projected Average Mean surface air temperature AJK Community Infrastructure And Services Moderately
P071454 Project 2011 27,2 USD Satisfactory
Taunsa Barrages Emergency Rehabilitation And
P088994 Modernization Project 2011 134,3 USD Satisfactory
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (kp) And Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (fata) Emergency
P121394 Recovery Project 2012 285,0 USD Non-evaluable
Pakistan Flood Emergency Cash Transfer
P125105 Project 2015 580,0 USD Satisfactory
Moderately
P078997 Sindh On-farm Water Management Project 2015 94,0 USD Satisfactory
Moderately
P084302 Sindh Water Sector Improvement Project 2021 10,0 USD Satisfactory
P154036 Disaster Resilience Improvement Project 2022 89,3 USD Satisfactory
Solid Waste Emergency and Efficiency
P173021 Project (Sweep) 2022 100,0 USD Active
I ntegrated Flood Resilience and Adaptation
P180323 Project 2023 213,0 USD Active
Sindh Flood Emergency Housing
P180008 Reconstruction Project 2023 500,0 USD Active
Sindh Flood Emergency Rehabilitation
P179981 Project 2023 510,0 USD Active
Total 3 120,3 USD

Figure 3 – Projected Precipitation Anomaly for 2020-39 Source: World Bank

Most of them were concluded, the majority with a final

classification of moderately satisfactory, but some with
unsatisfactory classification. Currently, there are four
projects ongoing related to floods in urban areas at the
Province of Sindh and Balochistan, the areas most
affected by floods in Pakistan (Image 1 – Flood Risk in
Pakistan)

Source: CMIP6 (Climate Change Knowledge Portal)

4
 Image 1 – Flood Risk in Pakistan
Source: Flood Risk Assessment in Pakistan
To have access to the project’s information, the project
appraisal documents (PAD) and the project
implementation documents (PID) have been analyzed.
Both documents provide information about the
development objectives of the project, the activities that
will be applied, who will be the entity responsibly for
the project implementation, the constitution of the
project implementation units, financial details and
potential risk and challenges.
Regarding the information presented in the PAD and
PID, all the projects ongoing have been screened for
short- and long-term climate change and disaster risk
and, are related with Climate Change Adaptation and
Resilient:
i.Integrated Flood Resilience and Adaptation
Project (US$ 213 M): the project will deliver
significant climate change adaptation co-benefits
though the activities proposed. The development
objective it is to improve livelihoods and essential
services and enhance flood risk protection in
selected communities affected by the 2022 floods.
The reconstruction and rehabilitation of flood-
damaged infrastructure will be done under the
principle of build back better (BBB). The project
also integrated nature base solutions to reduce
peaks and increase infiltration, while assisting in
carbon sequestration.
ii.Solid Waste Emergency and Efficiency Project
(SWEEP - US$ 100 M): the project was designed
to address the impacts of climate changes, namely
floods. The development objective it is to mitigate
the impacts of flooding and COVID-19
emergencies, and to improve solid waste
management services in Karachi. Project aims to
reduce floods risk in Karachi and support
emergency response to flood events during
monsoon season. It is expected to elaborated
climate risk studies, to inform climate adaptive
design speciation’s, specifically for the landfills
project, also it is expected a reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions.
iii.Sindh Flood Emergency Housing Reconstruction
Project (US$ 500 M): it is emergency responses
and relief due to very high impacts 2022 flood in
houses. So, the development objective of this
project it is to deliver owner-driven, multi-hazard
resilient reconstruction of core housing units
affected by the 2022 floods in selected districts of
Sindh.
iv.Sindh Flood Emergency Rehabilitation Project
(US$ 510 M): as the above this is mainly an
emergency response and relief project. The
development objective is related to rehabilitation
infrastructure and built gouvernante capacity to
respond to climate change and natural hazards.
Given WB concern with climate change, SWEEP
project will be carrying out climate risk studies for
landfills. Except for the “Integrated Flood Resilience
and Adaptation Project” which incorporated the
principles of BBB, none of the other projects have
access to clear guidelines or scientific information from
the WB´s climate models or technical information for
infrastructure design. Even the BBB, is a new
approach, since 2004, to post-disaster reconstruction
programs and needs more research to consolidate and
ensure an effective implementation (Fernadez, G. and
Iftekhar Ahmed, 2014). Also, it is more related with the
resilience of the community’s (Mannakkara, S. et all.,
2014) and procedures. Despite the integration disaster
risk reduction measures in physical infrastructure (BBB
- UNDRR) most of the measures, and also technical
specifications, can differ regarding who is responsible
for the implementation project.
The four projects analyzed are supported by the WB but
have different implementing agencies and different
5
project implementation units. In this situation, without
clear guidelines related to the information presented in
the WB models to guide the implementation project and
the infrastructure design, different technical
specifications for the same infrastructure can emerge,
even being in the same area and with the same
objective, leading to different results. So, in this
situation how can be ensured that the design of the
infrastructure will be effective, regarding the risk
related to climate change? From another side, WB is
concerned that the investment in infrastructure, apart
from the job creation and the economic opportunities,
can also contribute to climate change risk (IEG Report
2012 - Approach Paper).
WB or local climate models that can provide better
information on this matter.
• There is some evidence that the World Bank is
shifting its focus from promoting the development
agenda to providing greater assistance to countries
most affected by climate change.
• The WB is channeling substantial funds into
projects in countries that continue to face persistent
challenges, that are being more demanding
because of the consequences of climate change.
• The WB should strengthen accountability
measures to monitor the progress of projects that
are contributing to the targets established by the
Paris Agreement.

6. Results and analysis

Following the discussion of this research, the

establishment of the Climate Change Knowledge Portal
signifies a great effort in disseminating country-
specific climate risk data. However, as WB is aware the
application of climatic models in the projects is still a
challenge. Regarding this four projects analysis is
possible to verify the WB climatic models has been
more use to justify the intervention in the country and a
gap persists in the practical application of climate
models in project planning and execution, despite the
lack of conclusive evidence. While the portal frames
national climate scenarios, its translation into specific
project models, as examined in its four projects,
remains limited. It is to be noticed that the WB is now
evolving more often into climate assistance, being
increasingly focused on supporting nations most
affected by climate change. Yet, it is crucial that it also
intensifies its guidelines for infrastructure projects to
align with its climate models, ensuring that these
initiatives are climate resilient. Moreover, with
substantial funds being channeled into ongoing
projects, the WB must reinforce accountability
measures. This will help these projects not only address
immediate needs but also contribute effectively to the
objectives of the Paris Agreement, marking a
responsible and strategic approach towards climate
change mitigation and adaptation.
In summary, here are the key recommendations and
analysis:
• The WB should have more guidelines related to
infrastructure climate resilient projects to ensure
that these projects respond to the scenarios
informed by the Climate Models provided by the
6
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