Professional Documents
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Chapter 3 CF Notes
Chapter 3 CF Notes
Chap003
Corporate Finance (Trường Đại học Kinh tế Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh)
Chapter 3
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS AND FINANCIAL
MODELS
SLIDES
3-1
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CHAPTER ORGANIZATION
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3-3
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-What does the value indicate? (What are the benchmarks used for
comparison? What makes a ratio “good” or “bad”?)
-What actions could the company take to improve the ratio? (How
will this affect other ratios?)
-Short-term solvency, or liquidity, ratios: The ability to pay bills in the short-
run
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-Market value ratios: How the market values the firm relative to the book
values
Lecture Tip: Students often fail to see the “forest” for all the “trees”
(equations) when they are first learning financial statement
analysis. It is important to remind them that we are not just
computing ratios; we are computing ratios to help us make better
decisions. Teaching the ratios by category and showing how each
category can answer different questions related to the financial
strength of the firm may help students see the overall picture
painted by financial statement analysis, as well as how ratios
relate to each other.
Slide 3.6 Computing Liquidity Ratios: Note that the ratios on Slides 3.6
through 3.13 are computed using financial data from Tables 3.1 and 3.4.
Lecture Tip: When asked to define liquidity, students invariably state that it is
the “ability to convert assets to cash quickly.” Wrong! You should
stress the inadequacy of this definition by pointing out that you can
convert anything to cash quickly if you lower the price enough. A
good example is to ask the students how long it would take to sell a
house if the seller only asked for $1. Then ask them if this means
that the house is a liquid asset. Most of them recognize that it is
not, and then it is easier for them to remember the second part of
the definition – “without a significant loss in value.”
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Lecture Tip: Students often think that a high current ratio is, in and of itself, a
good thing. This may be true if you are a short-term creditor and
you are evaluating whether or not to grant trade credit or make a
short-term loan, but liquid assets are generally less profitable for
the company. Consequently, too large an investment in current
assets may reduce the earnings power of the firm and actually
reduce the stock price. Remind the students that the goal of the
firm is to maximize owner wealth.
Kirk Kerkorian’s takeover bid for Chrysler in April 1995 is a
perfect example of investor dissatisfaction with excess liquidity. At
the time, Chrysler’s management had accumulated $7.3 billion in
cash and marketable securities as a cushion against an economic
down-turn. Mr. Kerkorian instigated a takeover bid because
Chrysler’s management refused to pay this cash to stockholders. A
Wall Street Journal article noted that some analysts considered
several other firms with large cash holdings relative to firm value
vulnerable to takeover bids as well.
Lecture Tip: You may want students to consider the interaction of ratios.
Suggest a scenario in which the current ratio exhibits no change
over a two- or three-year period, while the quick ratio experiences
a steady decline. How could this occur? Is it a desirable strategy?
Have the students consider the following:
1. The company is operating with lower levels of the most
liquid assets, and this situation should be monitored. A problem
could arise should a large amount of current liabilities come due
for payment. However, this may not be a major concern if the
company has access to a line of credit at a bank.
2. This situation also indicates that larger levels of inventory,
relative to current liabilities, have accumulated in the firm. Point
out that an examination of other ratios is required to explore this
situation further. For example, it would be useful to know how
inventory relative to sales or cost of goods sold has changed
through time. This provides a nice lead-in to the asset management
section.
Variations:
debt/equity ratio = (total assets – total equity) / total equity
3-6
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Lecture Tip: This group of ratios (i.e., long-term solvency) really measures
two different aspects of leverage – the level of indebtedness and
the ability to service debt. The former is indicative of the firm’s
debt capacity, while the latter more closely relates to the likelihood
of default.
Further, it is sometimes helpful to alert students to some of the
nuances of the ratios within these subgroups. For example, the
total debt ratio measures what proportion of the firm’s assets are
financed with borrowed money, while the debt/equity ratio
compares the amount of funds supplied by creditors and owners.
The long-term debt ratio looks at the percent of long-term
financing that is raised using debt.
3-7
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-What are the firm’s credit terms? What are the industry’s terms on
average?
-Has the average collection period been trending upward, or is
this an aberration?
-Which consumers are contributing to the relatively high average
collection period?
-Is this an industry or economy wide phenomenon?
3-8
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Clearly, these questions are not all easily answered. Nonetheless, it should be
emphasized that a thorough analyst will consider numerous
questions like these in making a final determination about the
firm’s ability to manage its assets.
Lecture Tip: Students should be warned that, just as one must take care in
making generalizations across industries, so intra-industry
generalizations should also be made with great caution. For
example, a fixed asset turnover ratio that is high relative to that of
the industry can be the result of efficient asset utilization, or it can
indicate that the firm is utilizing old (and perhaps inefficient)
equipment, while others in the industry have invested in modern
equipment. This example also provides you with the opportunity to
illustrate the underlying linkages inherent in financial statement
analysis. In this case, the firm using inefficient equipment would
display a favorable fixed asset turnover ratio, but would be likely
to display a higher level of expenses, and unless offset by other
factors, lower profitability.
C. Profitability Measures
These measures are based on book values, so they are not comparable with
returns that you see on publicly traded assets.
For ROA, we could use EBIT rather than Net Income to get a
measure that is neutral with respect to capital structure.
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Lecture Tip: Economic Value Added (EVA®) and Market Value Added (MVA)
are relatively recent additions to the analyst’s toolbox. EVA® was
developed by Stern Stewart & Company and is the difference
between the firm’s after-tax net operating profit and its cost of
funds. The roots of EVA® can be traced to Modigliani and Miller
(1958). More recently, EVA® has become a buzz-word among
consultants and writers in the business press. The degree to which
EVA has entered the mainstream can be seen in a November 1997
Fortune magazine article entitled “America’s Greatest Wealth
Creators” in which the authors ranked 200 firms on the basis of
their EVAs and MVAs. Interestingly, the article characterizes
increasing EVA® as “a good sign that a stock will soar.” Stern
Stewart & Company’s internal research shows that the stock of
companies that have used EVA® for at least five years have
substantially outperformed comparable firms. The stock
performance is even more impressive if the companies also use
compensation plans based on EVA®. This is ongoing research that
is being conducted by Stern Stewart & Company.
Market-to-book ratio = market value per share / book value per share
EV multiple = EV / EBITDA
3-10
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Lecture Tip: What is “EEBS”? Under the heading “A Wire Story We’d Like
to See,” those people at Fortune magazine have proposed a new
earnings metric: EEBS, or “Earnings Excluding Bad Stuff.” The
tongue-in-cheek article implies that, since Wall Street does not like
things that negatively impact earnings, firms should just report
earnings they would have made “if all this bad stuff hadn’t
happened” during the quarter. At first glance it sounds silly; on
the other hand, it may be the next logical step for those firms that
practice “income smoothing” and “earnings management.”
Lecture Tip: Here’s a tip for teaching about the interpretations of the P-E
ratio, either in your discussion of ratios, or in your discussion of
stock market history. Consider the table of year-end P-E ratios for
the S&P 500 (courtesy of the S&P web site computed as Index / as
reported EPS):
Year P-E Year P-E
1988 11.69 1996 19.13
1989 15.45 1997 24.43
1990 15.47 1998 32.60
1991 26.12 1999 30.50
1992 22.82 2000 26.41
1993 21.31 2001 46.50
1994 15.01 2002 31.89
1995 18.14 2003 22.81
The average P-E ratio over the 16-year period is 23.77. But what is the
average over a subset through time?
Is the increase in market P-E a secular trend or a fluke? What does this imply
for traditional measures of “overvaluation” such as the market P-
E? And if the benchmark market P-E is higher than it used to be,
what does that suggest for the interpretation of company P-Es?
Obviously, the high PE in the latest period was a fluke, as subsequent years
(particularly given the credit crisis of the late 2000s) have seen a
drop to lower levels, even below the other time period averages
reported in the table above.
3-11
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Lecture Tip: A Wall Street Journal article suggested that accounting methods
and ratio analysis may require some rethinking in the “new era”
in which we seem to be living. Specifically, an article entitled
“Bulls Use Convoluted Measures to Justify View” from the April
20, 1998, issue notes that “By almost any standard measure of
stock value, Friday’s record closes leave large stocks trading at or
beyond history’s most extreme limits of valuation.” [Note to the
cautious reader: when the WSJ article was written, the DJIA was
at 9167.50; it went as high as 11,500 in early 2000, dropped to
about 7900 after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, was
back to almost 10,400 following the election in early November
2004, and closed around 8,000 at the end of 2008. ]
In any event, the article notes that the bull market of the 1990s
was attributable in large part to nearly divine macroeconomic
conditions – low inflation, low interest rates, and increasing
productivity. Put another way, the traditional valuation
benchmarks – historical price-earnings ratios, market-to-book
ratios, and dividend yields, as well as the underlying accounting
data - require careful consideration.
Lecture Tip: There are the “official” earnings estimates, compiled by First
Call, and then there are the “unofficial” estimates or “whisper
numbers.” Money Daily, in November 1998 called whisper
numbers “unofficial, unsubstantiated and unattributed forecast[s]
derived from rumors, hints and often, innuendo.” Academic
studies suggest that whisper numbers (which are often
disseminated via the Internet) “are a better proxy for market
expectations and are more accurate than consensus numbers.”
(Purdue University professor Susan Watts, quoted in the same
Money Daily article.) Another common term on Wall Street is
“visibility.” This term refers to the ability of management and
analysts to forecast earnings for future quarters. The more
confident they are about their estimates, the more “visibility” that
exists. Of course, visibility was much better when the economy was
good. When the economy began to slow down, visibility vanished.
It ties back to “EEBS.” In a down economy, companies do not
want to predict bad earnings very far into the future, but they are
more than willing to project good earnings for an extended
number of quarters during a good economy.
3-12
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The DuPont Identity provides analysts with a way to break down ROE and
investigate what areas of the firm need improvement.
3-13
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Lecture Tip: While some investors use PE ratios as if they are universally
comparable, differences in generally accepted accounting
practices used to compute EPS make international comparisons
risky. For example, the conventional wisdom for many years was
that the high PE ratios of Japanese stocks was due in part to the
more conservative nature of Japanese accounting practices which
depressed reported earnings and increased PEs.
3-14
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3-15
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Lecture Tip: The explosion of the Internet has placed financial information in
the hands of millions of individuals and has increased the speed
with which information is obtained by professionals. Many
companies now webcast their earnings conference calls. This
information used to only be directly available to analysts, who
then passed selected information on to their clients. There is also
more opportunity for false information to be spread quickly. An
excellent example is the case of Emulex and a phony press release.
On Friday, August 25, 2000, someone issued a press release
indicating that the CEO of Emulex was quitting and that quarterly
earnings would be restated from a profit to a loss. The stock price
immediately plunged 62 percent. Mark Jakob has been arrested for
releasing the phony press release. His motive was apparently to
cover substantial losses from a short position in Emulex. The
Internet and other financial news sources disseminated the
information from the press release much faster than would have
been possible in the past. This is an excellent opportunity to
introduce the subject of efficient markets. If information is more
readily available, it should be incorporated into the price more
quickly, thereby increasing market efficiency. There is a trade-off,
however. False information can also be incorporated very quickly,
so investors need to remember the old adage “you can’t believe
everything you read.”
Financial planning is based on the three areas of corporate finance that were
discussed in chapter one: capital budgeting decisions, capital structure
decisions, and working capital management.
Sales Forecast – most other considerations depend upon the sales forecast, so
it is said to “drive” the model
3-16
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Slide 3.21 –
Slide 3.22 Percent of Sales Approach
Sales generate retained earnings (unless all income is paid out in dividends).
Retained earnings, plus external funds raised, support an increase
in assets. More assets lead to more sales, and the cycle starts again.
This simplified approach assumes that certain items are fixed and
other vary proportionally with sales. Once forecasted, you must
select a plug account that will be used to make the balance sheet
balance. This number generally reflects External Financing Needed
(EFN).
Lecture Tip: In the first two chapters of the text, we have described “the
financing decision” in one of two ways: either in broad terms,
referring simply to the means by which funding is acquired to
accomplish our investment objectives, or specific terms, i.e.,
capital structure. At this point, the financing decision is
characterized in another way: as one aspect of the day-to-day
operations of the business. You may wish to take this opportunity
to set the stage for the material on working capital management to
be covered in subsequent chapters. Specifically, it can be helpful to
introduce the concept of “spontaneous” financing (financing that
arises in the normal course of business, requires little face-to-face
negotiation with the lender and is less likely to result in
bankruptcy proceedings in case of default). Students should be
reminded that while long-term financing decisions may have
greater potential impacts on firm value, they are made relatively
infrequently. Short-term investment and financing decisions are
made continuously and affect the daily cash flows of the business.
3-17
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All else equal, more growth means more external financing will be
needed.
Lecture Tip: You might point out that the relationship between firm
growth and external financing needs is of utmost importance to firms in
the early stages of their lives. Typically, these are firms that have
developed a new product or technology, are experiencing rapid sales
growth, have continuing capital needs, and must be extremely careful in
forecasting cash flows. Since many of these firms are relatively small
and/or new, their financing problems are often exacerbated by a lack of
access to the capital markets. As such, the “internal growth rate” and
“sustainable growth rate” concepts are of particular importance to
financial decision-makers.
Lecture Tip: For new firms, internal financing is often virtually zero,
particularly if the product or service being developed has not yet
been marketed to the public. External financing is, therefore, the
only significant source of funds and may come from venture
capitalists, banks, “angels,” or family and friends. Should you
wish to digress a bit and discuss the concept of “angel investors,”
who often provide capital to start-ups before venture capitalists
become involved, you will find a good hands-on article in the April
1996 issue of Worth magazine. There are also plenty of online
resources that can shed light on this issue.
3-18
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3-19
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Low growth firms will run a surplus that causes a decline in the debt-to-equity
ratio. As the growth rate increases, the surplus becomes a deficit,
and the firm will need external financing.
The Internal Growth Rate (IGR) is the growth rate the firm can maintain with
internal financing only.
The Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) is the maximum growth rate a firm can
achieve without external equity financing, while maintaining a
constant debt-to-equity ratio.
Lecture Tip: Some students will wonder why managers would wish to avoid
issuing equity to meet anticipated financing needs. This is a good
opportunity to bring in concepts from previous chapters
(stockholder/bondholder conflicts of interest and agency costs), as
well as to introduce topics to be covered in future chapters
(information asymmetry and signaling, flotation costs, high cost of
equity and corporate governance).
-Cutting margins might make sales grow – but is it good for the firm?
-Using more assets may make sales grow, but is this truly
increasing efficiency?
-Increasing financial leverage might pay for growth – but can
the firm survive?
-Cutting the dividend might pay for growth – but is it what stockholders
want?
The main problem is that the models are really accounting statement
generators rather than determinants of value. As we will see, value is
determined by cash flows, timing and risk; and these financial planning
models do not address any of these issues.
Slide 3.29 –
Slide 3.30 Quick Quiz
3-21
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3-22
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