18 IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSING, VOL. 1, NO.
1, MARCH 2008
Case Studies on the Use of Solar Irradiance
Forecast for Optimized Operation Strategies
of Solar Thermal Power Plants
Michael Wittmann, Hanne Breitkreuz, Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt, and Markus Eck
Abstract—The Spanish Royal Decree 661/2007 for the regula-
tion of renewable energy allows operators of power plants to par-
ticipate directly on the electricity market instead of reverting to
flat-rate prices. The premium tariff option motivates operators of
renewable energy plants to increasingly act like managers of con-
ventional plants, selling electricity at the liberalized market. Just
like a normal market participant, the operator places bids in ad-
vance on the day-ahead market and is obliged to fulfill them. Thus,
there is the need for operators of renewable energy plants to be able
to provide predictable and dispatchable energy in the profitable
premium tariff. This legal setting motivates the following analysis
on the value of irradiance forecasts for determining optimal oper-
ation strategies of solar power plants. The scientific background
of this study are ongoing research activities on the use of satel-
lite-based nowcasting of solar irradiance using cloud motion vector
techniques and on data assimilation of aerosols into air quality
models as a basis for day-ahead irradiance forecasts. The influence
of a schedule based on imperfect forecasts on the daily revenue for
a solar thermal power plant is assessed. Three typical weather sit-
uations are analyzed: clear-sky, overcast, and aerosol-charged sit-
uations. This paper shows the economic potential of the partici-
pation at the premium tariff with optimized operation strategies
using direct solar irradiance forecasts based on earth observation
techniques.
Index Terms—Energy meteorology, optimized operation
strategy, solar direct irradiance forecast, solar thermal power
plant (STPP).
I. INTRODUCTION
OLAR thermal power plants (STPP) are considered to have
S a significant importance for the transition from conven-
tional to sustainable energy production [1]. STPP use the direct
Manuscript received January 15, 2008; revised May 20, 2008. First published
September 30, 2008; current version published October 15, 2008. This work
was supported in part by the virtual Institute of Energy Meteorology (vIEM)
of the German Helmholtz Association and in part by the SKAL-ET project of
the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and
Nuclear Safety.
M. Wittmann is with the German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of
Technical Thermodynamics, Solar Research, Pfaffenwaldring 38-40, 70176
Stuttgart, Germany (e-mail: michael.wittmann@dlr.de).
H. Breitkreuz is with the German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote
Sensing Data Center (DFD), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany, and also with the
University of Wuerzburg, Department of Geography, Germany (e-mail: hanne-
katarin.breitkreuz@dlr.de).
M. Schroedter-Homscheidt is with the German Aerospace Center (DLR),
German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD) Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
(e-mail: marion.schroedter-homscheidt@dlr.de).
M. Eck is with the German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Technical
Thermodynamics, Stuttgart, Germany (e-mail: markus.eck@dlr.de).
Color versions of one or more of the figures in this paper are available online
at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/JSTARS.2008.2001152
normal solar irradiance (DNI) to convert solar energy through
focusing receivers into heat, which is then used to drive a ther-
modynamic cycle and thereby produce electricity. In order to
reach economic competitiveness, they are constructed in regions
of solar resources of more than 2000 kWh/m per year. Cur-
rent projects under development and construction are situated
mainly in Spain and the Southwest United States; additional
markets emerge in North Africa, the Persian Gulf, and China.
The Spanish legal foundation offers the operators of STPP
two possibilities to sell its electricity production: the tariff and
the premium model. The tariff model consists of a fixed price
independent of day and time. To improve competitiveness, the
operator is allowed to feed in the renewable electricity with pri-
ority to any other conventional electricity generator.
The premium model has been introduced in order to motivate
the operators of renewable energy plants to act on the liberalized
market like the conventional power plant managers. This means
they have to place their energy bids in a day-ahead market,
announcing the hour of energy production, the energy amount
and the price. Depending on market situation and the bid price,
the market operator Operador del Mercado Ibérico de Energía
(OMEL) [2] performs a matching procedure of power purchase
and sale bids. This forces the operators to oblige to their bids,
ensuring the system operator Red Eléctrica de España (REE) [3]
a reliable basis for secure grid operation during the next day. An
operator who does not fulfill the delivery schedule agreed upon
will be charged an additional fine per each kWh of deviation.
Having chosen the premium model, the operators of renew-
able power plants additionally receive a small premium per
kWh from the Spanish National Energy Commission, in order
to balance out competition disadvantages. This means that for
reaching profitability the sum of this premium and the market
price obtained minus deviation fines need to exceed the profit
theoretically gained if the fixed tariff model had been chosen.
It has to be noted that all electricity producers may only feed
in the amount of contracted electricity. The premium model
apparently contains the potential to increase the yearly revenues
of a STPP, since on average the electricity prices paid at the
day-ahead market plus premium are higher than the fixed tariff.
However, this advantage is reduced by the fines to be paid
because of deviations between contracted and fed-in electricity,
caused by inaccuracies in solar irradiance forecasts. Currently,
there is only one commercial power plant in Spain, the Sevillian
STPP PS10 [4] with an installed power of 11 MW , which is
operated in the premium model [5].
Activities at promoting alternative power supply systems—
like the Spanish legislation described above—are motivated by
WITTMANN et al.: CASE STUDIES ON THE USE OF SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECAST FOR OPTIMIZED OPERATION STRATEGIES
the upcoming depletion of the supplies of fossil fuels, leading to
an increasing dependency of our energy production on renew-
able energy sources. This leads to new challenges for distributed
and decentralized systems. One problem is that the availability
of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar is not con-
tinuous as it is affected by meteorological factors, leading to en-
ergy production patterns highly variable in space and time. This
is where the research field of energy meteorology is situated: in
between the triangle of economy, resources, and environment,
where meteorological, as well as physical-technical aspects, are
considered.
So far, irradiance information has mostly been available
as retrospective long time series, used by the solar energy
industry for site auditing and facility monitoring. However,
for a thorough integration of these highly variable alternative
power sources into existing conventional power supply systems,
the effectiveness of renewable energy production needs to be
raised. For the solar energy sector, this is only possible if reli-
able short-term predictions of direct and global solar irradiance
can be obtained. Only with this information, sensible control
and maintenance of STPP in combination with conventional
plants can be facilitated.
It is possible to use satellite-based cloud motion vectors for
cloud fields and, therefore, surface irradiance short-term predic-
tions with a forecast horizon of up to approximately 6 h [6]. Such
an approach could be used in intraday markets in the future,
allowing for forecasts updates during the day. For day-ahead
production forecasts, a combination of numerical weather pre-
diction and air quality modeling is more suitable, e.g., such as
the approach discussed in [7], where both meteorological and
chemical forecasts are relying on satellite- and ground-based
data assimilation.
This paper will analyze a test case based on meteorological
and chemical forecasts with respect to optimized operation
strategies of STPP when participating at the premium tariff. In
reality, the forecast model of electricity prices and the integrated
storage type have further influence on the optimization of the
operation strategies. However, in order to assess the impact of
real irradiance forecast here, both are assumed to be ideal.
Section II of this paper explains the Spanish market models
available to operators of solar power plants. In Section III, the
irradiance forecast models used are described, together with
an overview of model performances for the study period. Sec-
tion IV defines the solar thermal power plant models used for the
analysis, followed by the description of operation strategies in
Section V. In Section VI, the results of the case study are given.
II. DESCRIPTIONS OF SPANISH MARKET MODELS
A. Remuneration Models
1) Fixed-Tariff Model: The Fixed-Tariff model is character-
ized by a uniform remuneration which is independent on both
time of day and day of week. Per fed-in kWh of electricity
26.9375 -ct is being paid. It is important to notice that the
STPP operator has a guaranteed right to feed-in all electricity
whenever it is produced. This model can only be chosen by
power plant with a maximum installed power of 50 MW.
19
2) Premium Model: The premium model consists of the sum
of electricity price as negotiated, plus an additional premium.
Both are paid per kWh of fed-in electricity. The premium is
currently 25.4 -ct/kWh and is independent from time of day.
The electricity price is negotiated either in bilateral contracts or
at the electricity market OMEL. In this study, the electricity is
considered to be traded at the electricity stock exchange, like
it is realized by the Spanish PS10 project. The electricity price
traded at OMEL varies with time; thus, the entire electricity pay-
ment is also dependent on time.
Due to the intention of the premium model to treat operator
of renewable plants like conventional producers, the model also
contains some disadvantages. For example, the operators lose
their right to feed-in all the electricity they produce, because
they are only allowed to feed-in when they were able to ar-
range for a contract. Additionally, they are obliged to support
the system operator in net stabilization efforts. This can result
in the denial of feed-in rights in spite of a confirmed sales bid,
since the system operator is able to curtail a certain amount of
the scheduled electricity when it becomes necessary for system
stabilization. However, the participation on grid services is not
considered in this study.
B. Auction-Based Contracts
1) Day-Ahead Market: Each day, marginal costs and
amounts of energy production for the next day are determined
by the Spanish electricity market operator OMEL. For this,
each producer and consumer of electricity states sales and
purchase bids, which are then matched by OMEL in order to
balance supply and demand. Sales bids with prices higher than
the marginal price are not considered. In order to take part in
this daily auction, every participant at the market has to fix
his schedule one day prior to feed-in. For fluctuating sources
like solar energy, this means that a forecast-based scheduling
is necessary to identify the reasonable and tradable amounts
of electricity production and also to define storage operation
strategies.
The Spanish market also offers the possibility to trade energy
in six intraday markets. If enough assets are assumed, these ad-
ditional markets are used to adjust the scheduled energy, e.g.,
when changes in forecasts occur. In this study, the operation
strategy is based on a singular forecast only, which means that
the operator only participates at the day-ahead market.
2) Deviation Fines: Deviation fines need to be paid when
deviations of scheduled and fed-in electricity amounts occur.
Under the current Spanish legal foundation, the fines depend on
several aspects, e.g., market participation or grid connection [8].
For this case study, a simplified fine model is used: the deviation
fines are fixed at 10% of the corresponding market price. It has
to be noted that the fines are defined to be symmetric, which
means that positive deviations are rated the same as negative
deviations. Independently of deviations, the small premium was
paid for every fed-in kWh of electricity.
III. IRRADIANCE FORECASTS
In order to calculate direct and global irradiance at surface
level, exact information about clouds, aerosols, water vapor, and
ozone is needed. For overcast skies, knowledge of cloud cover
20 IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSING, VOL. 1, NO. 1, MARCH 2008
and type is most important in determining irradiance values.
Cloud cover information is also important for distinguishing be-
tween overcast and clear situations. In the clear sky case, how-
ever, precise aerosol information is indispensable for providing
accurate irradiance forecasts since up to 20%–30% of additional
direct irradiance extinction have been reported for cases of high
particle occurrence [9], [10]. That fact that there is a focus of
the solar energy industry on relatively cloud-free regions, such
as the Mediterranean area, explains why clear sky calculations
are of great relevance for irradiance forecasts.
A. Model Concept
A model of aerosol-based forecasts of solar irradiance for en-
ergy applications (AFSOL system, see [7]) has been developed
to match the needs of the solar energy community regarding ir-
radiance forecasts: not only global, but also direct irradiance in-
formation is available, at high temporal resolution covering Eu-
rope and the Mediterranean region. A focus has been placed on
irradiance forecasts in clear sky conditions since these include
the most interesting situations for efficient operations of solar
energy plants. This means that accurate aerosol forecasts are
of great relevance—a parameter which is often fully neglected
or substituted by global climatology values when irradiance at
ground level is assessed.
All irradiance calculations of the AFSOL system are per-
formed with the libRadtran (library for radiative transfer) pro-
gram code [11]. Its main routine, uvspec, calculates direct and
global spectral irradiance at surface level, taking into account at-
mospheric multiple scattering and absorption as well as surface
properties. Various solvers are available, allowing to choose ac-
cording to the different applications or accuracies needed, e.g.,
between very exact time-consuming calculations or more pa-
rameterized routines applicable for operational services.
For the case study presented here, aerosol, water vapor and
cloud information are taken from the EURopean Air Pollu-
tion Dispersion (EURAD) model [12], whereas ozone and
ground albedo data has been obtained from satellite based
measurements.
The temporal resolution of the direct and global irradiance
forecasts is one hour, the spatial resolution accounts to a half-de-
gree grid across Europe and the Mediterranean African coastal
regions. Each forecast run lasts 72 h. In the case of the day-ahead
market, the timeframe from 24 to 48 h is used for scheduling the
feed-in.
B. Input Data
The EURAD model incorporates physical, chemical and dy-
namical processes related to emission, transport and deposition
of atmospheric substances.
The main elements of the system are three sub-models
treating meteorological input (NCAR- MM5 mesoscale model
[13]), emission data [14], and a chemical transport model [12].
Information on cloud parameters (cloud top and bottom height,
cloud liquid water, and cloud fraction) is obtained from the
meteorological part of the EURAD model, as well as total
water vapor.
Aerosol processes are accounted for within the additional
MADE sub-system (modal aerosol dynamic model), which in-
cludes particle emission, coagulation and growth, transport, wet,
and dry deposition [15].
The complete system yields mass concentrations of all
treated species in three different size modes (nucleation, accu-
mulation, and coarse), differentiating among 23 tropospheric
height levels. Primary organic material and elemental carbon,
sulfate, ammonium, nitrate, anthropogenic particulate matter,
and aerosol liquid water are considered in accumulation and
nucleation mode. Anthropogenic aerosols are additionally
included as coarse mode particles.
Integration of natural coarse mode particles—sea salt and
dust—is still in preparation. This is a crucial point, especially
since, in the Mediterranean area, Saharan-based dust storms can
occur frequently [16], leading to large extinction of direct irradi-
ance. Consequently, the integration of external dust information
into the aerosol model has a high priority from the solar energy
point of view. One approach is the assimilation of satellite-based
aerosol information into the EURAD air quality forecast model,
which is being followed within the German Research Foun-
dation (DFG) project AERO-SAM (boundary layer AEROsol
characterization from space by advanced data assimilation into
a tropospheric chemistry transport model [17]).
Particle mass concentrations of different aerosol species are
usually combined to produce single -values (total mass
concentration of particles smaller than 10 micron at the surface,
dedicated for air quality users) as standard output. In the case
study presented, however, separate mass concentration values of
all substances modeled are used in order to calculate vertically
integrated aerosol optical thickness values which allow surface
irradiance calculations.
Ground albedo data has been obtained from NASA’s MODIS
instrument (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-Radiometer)
onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites [18]. Bimonthly compos-
ites of 1-km resolution were aggregated to match the half-degree
grid of EURAD.
For information on atmospheric ozone content Total Ozone
Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) measurements from NASA’s
Earth Probe Satellite are used [19]. The data is available at http://
wdc.dlr.de, at global coverage and with a resolution of
. For this study, daily mean values of ozone columns are
used, since the interdaily variability of ozone is not very high
and because ozone influence is restricted to less than 1% when
dealing with spectrally integrated irradiances [20].
C. ECMWF Irradiance Forecasts
Data from the European Center of Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF) was used as a second source of irradi-
ance forecasts. Solar global irradiance forecasts are routinely
archived at the operational archive. However, direct irradiance
is not available. For process time, minimization the computa-
tion of the shortwave transmissivities is performed only every
3 h, using the values of temperature, specific humidity, liquid/ice
water content and cloud fraction at this time step, and a clima-
tology for aerosols, as well as for atmospheric carbon dioxide
and ozone content.
For this study atmospheric fields of the parameter solar sur-
face radiation downwards (SSRD) were obtained at a model grid
of . The radiation values are spectrally integrated
WITTMANN et al.: CASE STUDIES ON THE USE OF SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECAST FOR OPTIMIZED OPERATION STRATEGIES
from 200 to 4000 nm. Each forecast starts at midnight and runs
for 72 h.
All irradiation parameters at ECMWF are accumulated since
the begin of forecast (in J/m ). In order to produce instant three
hourly mean values for each time step given, irradiation values
for each time step have to be isolated and normalized to the
time interval. These three hourly values are interpolated to ob-
tain hourly mean values of irradiance. As a linear interpolation
leads to underestimations for high sun elevations and to over-
estimations for low sun, an interpolation method using the ratio
of forecasted global irradiance against modeled clear sky irra-
diance (clear-sky index) for the same situation [21] is imple-
mented here.
An additional model [22] is needed to separate the direct and
diffuse components since the ECMWF only offers global irra-
diance values. Depending on solar elevation and the ratio of
forecasted global irradiance to modeled clear sky global irra-
diance, this allows for the determination of direct normal irra-
diance which is the parameter needed for managing concen-
trating solar thermal plants. It has to be noted that there are
slight distortions in the diurnal cycle of ECMWF global irradi-
ance, caused by the fact that irradiance data needs to be interpo-
lated from three-hourly values where no additional information
on sub-hourly variability is available. These deviations tend to
multiply when being transferred to direct irradiance, leading to
a slightly compressed daily curve of the ECMWF-derived direct
irradiance values.
Ground measurements of direct and global irradiance were
used in order to assess the accuracy of both the ECMWF and
AFSOL forecast data. The ground data was measured by Solar
Millennium AG at 37.21 N and 3.07 E (near Guadix, southern
Spain) with a rotating shadowband pyranometer, allowing for
the determination of both global and diffuse solar irradiance.
For the analysis presented, 1-min measurements were averaged
to produce hourly values.
D. Model Performances
For this study, the location of Guadix in southern Spain
(37.21 N, 3.07 E) for July 2003 has been analyzed. During the
following analysis, all daytime moments of the 72-hour-fore-
casts are considered. If only clear sky situations are exam-
ined—the cases that are most interesting for plant operation
strategies—the AFSOL global irradiance forecast overesti-
mates the ground-based measurements by approx. % (or
29 W/m ), whereas the ECMWF global irradiance forecast
underestimates by about % (see Table I). The variability
of forecast accuracy (root mean square error RMSE) is much
larger for the ECMWF global irradiance (12.4%) than for the
AFSOL forecast (5.2%).
As for the direct irradiance component, here again the
AFSOL forecast overestimates the ground measurements by
%, while the ECMWF-based forecast underestimates
by a mean %. According to the fact that inaccuracies
in global irradiance forecast generally increase when only
the direct component is considered, the variabilities for direct
irradiance forecast increase to 17.4% (AFSOL) and 28.6%
(ECMWF). This means that for clear sky situations both global
21
TABLE I
BIAS AND RMSE OF AFSOL AND ECMWF FORECASTS (ONLY CLEAR SKY)
TABLE II
BIAS AND RMSE OF AFSOL AND ECMWF FORECASTS (ALL SITUATIONS)
and direct irradiance forecasts of the AFSOL system are more
accurate than the operational ECMWF forecasts and its derived
direct irradiance.
If all cloud situations—including both partially and totally
overcast moments—are included into the analysis, the forecast
variability significantly increases, especially for direct irradi-
ance values (see Table II): here, AFSOL and ECMWF show
RMSE values of 47 and 42%, respectively, while bias values
remain approximately the same as without cloud situations.
This means that according to the results of our study period
the ECMWF data is more suitable when forecasting irradiance
for partly cloudy and overcast situations.
IV. DEFINITION OF SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT MODELS
STPP consist of a conventional power block and a solar
receiver system which replaces the conventional steam gener-
ator. The various types of receiving systems can be grouped
into linear and point focusing receivers. The two main linear
focusing receivers systems are given by the parabolic trough
system and Fresnel absorbers. Usually a downstream steam
cycle is used to produce electricity.
Up to date the state-of-the-art technology used by a vast ma-
jority of the projected and constructed STPP is the parabolic
trough system. In Fig. 1, the schematic configuration of the
Andasol-1 project is shown. Andasol-1 is located in the high
plateau of Guadix (Province Granada) and owned by Solar Mil-
lennium and ACS/Cobra group. The solar field collects the di-
rect solar radiation and heats up a cold heat transfer fluid (HTF).
The energy is transferred by the HTF to the steam cycle in order
to produce electricity. The integrated storage can be used to bal-
ance solar irradiation dips due to cloud movement or to prolong
the time of electricity production into the night. Each day, the
electricity produced is sold to the electricity market.
22 IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSING, VOL. 1, NO. 1, MARCH 2008
Fig. 1. Schematic configuration of Andasol-1 power plant [23].
Fig. 2. Ground measurements of DNI at a clear day (2003-07-16) and a day
+2
with high aerosol concentration (2003-07-25) over local time, i.e., UTC .
A. Boundaries: Electricity Stock Market Model
For this case study, different time periods in July 2003 have
been analyzed, using real prices that were auctioned at the ac-
cording Spanish stock market. These prices were traded in a
day-ahead market with a temporal resolution of 1 h.
For real operations of the power plant, the schedule for the
next day is based on forecast of both electricity price and mete-
orological conditions. However, to analyze the economic poten-
tial of solar irradiance forecasts, a perfect forecast of electricity
prices is assumed.
B. Power Plant Model
The solar plant Andasol-I, which is planned to be connected
to the Spanish national grid in July 2008, is used as the refer-
ence plant for this study. At the moment the Andasol-I power
plant project is the only one which has a significant storage ca-
pacity, allowing for the transfer of significant amounts of solar
energy towards periods with high stock prices. The power block
consists of a 49.9-MW turbine with live steam parameters of
100 bar and 370 C [23]. In this configuration, the design gross
efficiency of the power block reaches 38%.
During the simulations, it is assumed that live steam param-
eters and superheating temperature are held constant, as well as
the feed-water temperature. The energy flow to the power block
needs to exceed a threshold of 20% in order to provide sufficient
mass flow for turbine operation. The part load behavior of the
turbines has been taken into account and auxiliary power was
considered.
C. Solar Field Model
Even though the Andasol-1 solar field is equipped with
SKAL-ET collectors, the public available efficiency models of
LS-2 collector [24] have been used in this study. The collector
surface is set to 510 000 m . The mean temperature of the
ambient was held constant at 25 C and for the absorbers at
300 C. The average optical efficiency was set to 73.2%.
D. Thermal Energy Storage Model
In this paper, the thermal energy storage is assumed to be
ideal. This means it neither loses energy nor exergy. However,
in reality thermal energy storage systems suffer from a loss of
energy by heat transfer to the ambient air. An indirect storage,
WITTMANN et al.: CASE STUDIES ON THE USE OF SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECAST FOR OPTIMIZED OPERATION STRATEGIES
as realized in the Andasol-1 project, has also exergetic losses
due to heat exchange from the solar field HTF to the storage
fluid during charging and discharging. The storage capacity of
Andasol-1 is 1010 MWh [25] which corresponds to about
7.5 h at design electricity production.
Another assumption towards a perfect storage model is that
the charging rate is not restricted by any technical component,
i.e., the entire current energy offer from the solar field can be
charged into the storage. However, the restriction of the storage
capacity needs to be considered when reaching maximum
storage load. The discharge rate is limited by the ability of
the power block to convert thermal energy into electricity. Re-
garding 49.9 MW of electric power with an efficiency of 38%
this maximum discharge rate is calculated to be 131.3 MW .
V. DEFINITION OF OPERATION STRATEGIES
A. Day-Ahead Scheduling
1) Reference Operation Strategy: The reference operation
strategy prioritizes the direct solar operation. This means that
during the production of heat the solar field feeds directly into
the power block in order to produce electricity. The surplus
of heat which cannot be converted in the power block is used
to charge the storage. When the heat production of the solar
field drops below the design heat consumption of the power
block, storage energy will be used to compensate the lack of
energy. After sunset, the storage energy will be used to prolong
the electricity production into the night until the storage is de-
pleted and the whole daily irradiation is completely converted
into electricity.
The solar field will be defocused when the thermal solar field
power exceeds the sum of maximum charging rate, which is due
to storage capacity limitation and design heat rate of the power
block.
2) Optimized Operation Strategy: The aim of the optimized
operation strategy is to maximize the daily revenue at the elec-
tricity stock exchange by selling the electricity preferably at
high price times rather than at low price times. The thermal heat
storage is used to adapt the electricity production to the elec-
tricity price characteristics by shifting the collected energy in
the solar field towards the high price periods. This means that the
resulting schedule is basically defined by the daily price course.
However, an adequate storage capacity is necessary in order to
get the flexibility needed for shifting the energy over the time
axis.
In order to set up the optimized operation strategy, an op-
timization problem needs to be solved. For this, a problem
adopted solver was developed. The objective function to be
maximized (1) is the daily revenue
(1)
with limitations
23
(2)
is the electricity production fed in by the STPP. The terms
represent thermal energy in the storage. Function describes
the upper limit of the charging rate which is restricted by the
current available amount of solar radiation. The solar radiation
also influences the maximum discharge rate because of the
maximal possible heat load of the power block. Both energy
fluxes from the solar field and storage may not exceed the design
heat load. Certain requirements for the adopted optimizer are
needed, e.g., the use of steady-state models and ideal storage.
Additionally, no energy consumption due to start-up procedures
is considered.
The solar field needs to be defocused when the thermal solar
field power can neither be converted in the power block nor
charged to the storage. In this case, any additional energy pro-
duced will be lost.
B. Operation
Each day the operator will try to implement the schedule
agreed upon with the OMEL at every hour. Primarily, the en-
ergy produced in the solar field is used. If the field energy pro-
duction is insufficient compared to the schedule, the storage is
used to balance out the missing from the field. A surplus of en-
ergy will be charged into the storage. In case of a completely
charged storage and an energy surplus, the solar field will partly
be defocused and, thus, dump the energy surplus.
VI. RESULTS
Three sample periods in July 2003 were chosen, according
to three different meteorological situations dominating the lo-
cation analyzed. The first period deals with the influence of Sa-
haran dust storms on irradiance. These events frequently occur
in the Mediterranean area [16], leading to increased scattering
through high aerosol load and thereby reducing direct and to a
lesser extent also global irradiance. The second study analyses
the performance of solar power plant operation strategies using
irradiance forecasts on clear sky days, the third approach anal-
ogously for partly cloudy days.
The ground measurements are also used to assess the im-
pact of having “ideal” forecasts for plant management: treating
ground truthing data as forecast data allows for the determina-
tion of the theoretical optimum of the chosen plant operation
strategy. This gives information on the possible range of eco-
nomic enhancement which can be gained by improving the fore-
cast data with data assimilation techniques and earth observation
measurements.
Forecast validation is also performed with regard to persis-
tence, i.e., by treating ground measurements of the day before
as forecast data for the following day.
A. Analysis on Impact of High Aerosol Load
The influence of Saharan dust storms on direct irradiance is
assessed by comparing a cloud-free day (July 16th, 2003) and
a clear day with high dust particle load (July 25th, 2003). The
corresponding ground measurements (see Fig. 1) clearly repre-
sent the extinction processes due to the high atmospheric aerosol
load, resulting in a decrease of DNI of approx. 12%.
24 IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSING, VOL. 1, NO. 1, MARCH 2008

TABLE III
ENERGY DAILY FLOWS IN STPP

Fig. 3. Energy flows of July 16th (—) and July 25th (- - -) over local time. The
DNI source (a) can produce a maximum solar field power Q shown in (b).
Due to defocusing, a part Q is converted in the power block (c) to produce
E
the electricity (d).

In order to assess the impact on electricity production, the

reference operation strategy was chosen. In Table III, the en-
ergy flows are shown. It can be summarized that, although the
dust event reduces the amount of solar resource, no significant
reduction of electricity production is observed. This is due to
the specific layout of the solar field and storage, which leads to
defocusing and a subsequent loss of about a quarter of the max-
imal energy production of the field on July 16th.
The maximal time period of electricity production of a clear
sky day can be calculated by the sum of the hours of insolation
plus the hours of storage capacity. The resulting maximal full
load hours per day correspond to a certain upper limit of en-
ergy as can be converted by the power block. In the assessed
two days, this upper limit is approximately 2700 MWh of con-
vertible energy. Any insolation above that has to be dumped by
the solar field. On July 25th, higher insolation leads to a fully
charged storage at noon and afterwards to a dumping of energy
[see Fig. 3(c)]. On July 16th, the aerosol charge reduces the
maximal field energy to amount corresponding approximately
with the convertible energy. Thus, at the end of both days the
aerosol charge has no significant influence on the electricity pro-
duction of the simulated power plant.
Nevertheless, it can be derived that an aerosol event like
on July 25th can have a significant influence on the energy
production when certain boundary conditions are changed.
For example, on spring or fall days when the insolation level
is lower, no defocusing will occur, and, therefore, no energy
will be dumped. Second, the integrated storage could be of
higher capacity than at the reference plant used here, which
also results in no limitation of energy yield. This latter case is
also considered in Table III, where the impact of the aerosol
event on a STPP with sufficient storage capacity is shown to
lead to a loss of electricity production of 24% as compared to
an aerosol free day.
B. Analysis on Clear Sky Days Without Dust
The yearly revenue of the STPP is gained primarily during
summer on clear sky days. In this section, the potentials of
different forecast models are assessed for two consecutive clear
(0 0)
Fig. 4. Measured irradiation x , AFSOL forecast (—) and ECMWF fore-
cast (- - -) for July 27th and 28th (a). Deviations of forecast models are shown
in (b).
sky days without significant aerosol charge (July 27–28, 2003)
randomly chosen from the test period. The forecast models
used to schedule the plant operation are the AFSOL system,
ECMWF-based direct irradiance forecasts, and persistence
assumptions. Ground measurements determine the actual irra-
diation. In Fig. 4, forecasts and measured irradiance values are
given.
Generally, the ECMWF-based DNI forecast systematically
underestimates the ground measurements (solid line) during
those two days, while the AFSOL forecast and persistence
models are close to the ground truthing data. In Table IV,
the impact of the forecast models on the daily real revenue is
shown, i.e., revenue minus deviation fines.
On consecutive clear sky days, the AFSOL system and per-
sistence assumptions provide high quality input for the fore-
cast-based operation strategy: both reach at least 99.6% of the
revenue based on idealized “perfect” forecasts. From July 27th
to 28th, the persistence model shows the same optimality as the
AFSOL model, due to the similarity of solar irradiance condi-
tions on both days. It has to be noted that the performance of
WITTMANN et al.: CASE STUDIES ON THE USE OF SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECAST FOR OPTIMIZED OPERATION STRATEGIES
TABLE IV
REVENUES FROM JULY 27–28
00
Fig. 5. Measured irradiation ( x ), AFSOL forecast (—) and ECMWF fore-
cast (- - -) for July 19th–21st (a) over local time. Deviations of forecast models
are shown in (b). The corresponding electricity price of the Spanish day-ahead
trading market is illustrated in (c).
the persistence assumption strongly depends on the stability of
weather situations and will reduce significantly when changes,
due to aerosols or clouds, occur. As can be observed in Fig. 4,
the ECMWF-based forecast diverges strongly from the actual
irradiation. This leads to a low utilization of revenue potentials
for the power plant operator.
C. Analysis on Cloudy Days
The demand on forecast models and definition of the opera-
tion strategy rises strongly on days with great transients in the
solar irradiation. Thus for the third part of the study three cloudy
days in July 2003 (19th–21st) were identified. Both measured
solar irradiation and the two forecast models assessed are shown
in Fig. 5(a).
It can be seen that the ECMWF-based DNI forecast is al-
ways lower than the AFSOL forecast. However, none of the
models is able to capture the high variability in DNI which can
25
TABLE V
REVENUES FROM JULY 19–21
be seen in the ground measurement data. This is because days
with cloud movement and cloud formation are challenging to
all forecast models, especially on partially cloudy and not fully
overcast situations: it means that not only the general occurrence
of clouds within a certain region needs to be forecasted, but also
the exact location, speed and direction of single cloud structures
moving across the study location. Thus, the quality is naturally
decreased in comparison to clear sky days. Measured deviations
reach values of 823 W/m , showing no characteristic direction
of deviations [Fig. 5(b)].
In Table V, the revenues for both operation strategies and
four forecast models including the “perfect” model are shown.
It can be seen that the performance of the ECMWF-based fore-
cast is much better than the optimality of the AFSOL system
for the time period analyzed. The measured irradiation has a
significant dip around noon for every three days. Using persis-
tence premises as basis for the schedule profits from the pe-
riod-specific similarity and, therefore, achieves good results, as
presented in Table V.
The general performance is also largely influenced by the di-
urnal electricity price curve, as shown in Fig. 5(c). This is be-
cause the market rules require the operators to decide on the
electricity feed-in one day in advance, which directly connects
the planned schedule to the forecasted irradiation. If forecast de-
viations then turn out to be negative, i.e., more solar irradiation
is measured than expected, the surplus will be stored into the
storage system. Positive deviations, i.e., more solar irradiation
is forecasted than measured, are balanced by the use of storage
energy whenever available. Imbalances of schedule and metered
electricity are fined proportional to the actual electricity prices.
The ECMWF-based forecast has negative deviations during
the morning of the first two days, i.e., more irradiance is avail-
able than forecasted. Thus beside compliance of the energy con-
tracts, which are based on the forecast, the surplus of energy will
be used to charge the storage. During the high positive deviation
at noon this energy is used to produce electricity at the actual
high prices, thus fines are reduced and electricity is sold during
the high price period. In contrast, the AFSOL model completely
overestimates the first day with high deviations. This leads to a
strong short position on the market over the entire day which
cannot be compensated by the storage. Thus, high fines have to
be paid during the first day’s high price period. On the second
day the model underestimates most of the time. This means only
small amounts of electricity delivery are contracted, leading to
26 IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSING, VOL. 1, NO. 1, MARCH 2008
low revenue during the day. To summarize, although the mean
absolute deviation of the AFSOL and ECMWF model systems
are rather similar, the hour of occurrence in conjunction with the
direction of the deviations and the diurnal market price structure
leads to a clear difference in the daily revenue for the assessed
three cloudy days.
VII. CONCLUSION
In order to participate at the premium model in Spain, opera-
tors of solar thermal power plants need to change to a forecast-
based operation. However, the economic potential promised by
the premium model is reduced by imperfect forecasts. Thus, a
certain forecast quality for direct solar irradiation must be pro-
vided by the models in order to achieve profitability.
This case study assesses the impact of aerosol charged, clear
sky, and cloudy days at the Andasol-I location in Spain. On July
25th, 2003, a Saharan dust outbreak was observed which re-
sulted in high aerosol loads reducing the direct solar radiation
to 78.3% compared to a normal situation on July 16th. This re-
duction had only a minor effect on the electricity production of
the STPP due to limitations of the storage capacity and the high
daily direct solar energy. Nevertheless, it was found that sim-
ilar aerosol charges will have a direct impact on the electricity
production during fall/spring days and for systems with larger
storage sizes.
July 27th and 28th are two very similar clear sky days. The
assessment of reference and optimized operations and different
forecast models showed that the AFSOL and persistence as-
sumptions achieve almost perfect optimality. However, it has to
be added that the good performance of the assumption of per-
sistence is due to the choice of two identical clear sky days. At
changing weather conditions, the idea of persistence would be
at a comparable disadvantage, compared to forecasting systems
based on weather models. The ECMWF-based forecast always
underestimates the solar irradiation, leading to lower economic
results.
The assessment of three partly cloudy days shows that gen-
erally good economic results can be achieved using a forecast-
based operation strategy. However, it can be seen that solar irra-
diance forecast differences are amplified by the corresponding
electricity price and the daily price course. So the economic rev-
enue strongly depends on the time of day when the deviations
occur. This means that the assessed data basis of three consec-
utive cloudy days is not sufficient for quantitative studies of the
accuracy of the different forecast models. Instead, this study is
meant as a methodological study to show the possibilities of
using irradiance forecasts for optimizing operation strategies of
STPP. More comprehensive studies based on entire years need
to be performed in order to verify the conclusions drawn from
the study period described.
The electricity stock market offers the possibility of intraday
trading, i.e., the day-ahead schedule can be adopted during the
day. Therefore, updated direct solar irradiation forecast are nec-
essary and promise a further reduction of scheduling uncertainty
and payment of deviation fines.
These first results show general interrelations between op-
eration strategy, electricity stock prices, forecasts, and actual
weather conditions. The case study demonstrates the need of in-
terdisciplinary work on this topic and encourages further inves-
tigations of forecast-based operation strategies of solar thermal
power plants on a broader data basis. The need of highly accu-
rate solar irradiance forecasts is demonstrated, motivating fur-
ther research on integration of satellite and ground based mea-
surements to improve forecasting capabilities in numerical and
chemical weather prediction. Data assimilation of near real time
observations is crucial for both the day-ahead and the intraday
markets. Also, real storage characteristics and price forecast
models are being implemented in future studies in order to in-
crease the detail of assessment.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors would like to thank the Solar Millennium AG
for providing ground measurement data of solar irradiance.
They would also thank the Rhenish Institute for Environ-
mental Research of the University of Cologne for providing
the particle forecasts from the EURAD model used in this
study and E. Lorenz from the Energy and Semiconductor Re-
search Department of the University of Oldenburg for routines
and help with the ECMWF data interpolation procedures.
They would also like to thank the developers of libRadtran
(http://www.libradtran.org) for their radiative transfer tools
which were used for all irradiance calculations, as well as the
two anonymous reviewers for their helpful suggestions and
comments.
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Michael Wittmann was born in Weiden, Germany,
in 1976. He received the M.Eng. degree in environ-
mental engineering with a focus on renewable energy
technologies from the University of Applied Sciences
of Amberg, Germany, in 2004, and the M.Sc. (Hons.)
degree in power systems engineering from the Tech-
nical University of Clausthal, Germany, in 2006. He
is currently pursuing the Ph.D. degree at the Univer-
sity of Stuttgart, Germany.
He is currently a Scientist with the Institute
of Technical Thermodynamics of the German
Aerospace Center (DLR), Stuttgart. The objective of his work in investigating
operational strategies of solar thermal power plants with integrated storage
systems is to optimize revenues of the daily plant operations under varying
meteorological and market conditions.
27
Hanne Breitkreuz was born in Hamburg, Germany, in 1979. She received the
Abitur from Halepaghen-Schule Buxtehude, Germany, in 1999, the Diploma in
geography from the University of Hamburg, Germany, in 2005, and the Ph.D.
degree, with a thesis on aerosol forecasts and solar irradiance forecasts for en-
ergy applications, from the University of Wuerzburg, Germany.
She is a Scientist with the German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote
Sensing Data Center (DFD), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany.
Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt born in Bonn,
Germany, in 1972. She received the Abitur from
Pädagogium Otto-Kühne-Schule, Bonn, Germany,
in 1991, and the Diploma in meteorology from the
University Karlsruhe, Germany, in 1997.
She is a Scientist at the German Aerospace
Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center
(DFD), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany. Her research
interests are atmospheric satellite remote sensing
(clouds, aerosols, water vapor, snow cover, and air
temperature), aerosol physics and their impact on
surface solar irradiance, energy meteorology with focus on solar and bioenergy,
and electricity grid integration of renewable energies.
Markus Eck was born in Havixbeck, Germany,
in 1966. He received the B.S. degree in technical
physics from the University of Applied Science,
Aachen, Germany, the M.S. degree in mechanical
engineering from the University of Siegen, Ger-
many, and the Ph.D. degree in engineering from the
Technical University of Munich, Germany.
He is a Project Manager at the Institute of Tech-
nical Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center,
in the field of direct steam generation in parabolic
troughs. His research activities cover the modeling
and experimental investigation of the direct solar steam generation in parabolic
trough and linear Fresnel collectors, the design of collector fields, and the in-
vestigation and assessment of solar thermal power plants.