MEMORANDUM

TO: DAVE MCCORMICK FOR SENATE

FROM: GENE ULM AND GEORGE NASSAR, PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
SUBJECT: KEY SURVEY POINTS — PENNSYLVANIA SURVEY
DATE: JANUARY 26, 2024

Public Opinion Strategies recently completed a survey of 800 likely voters in Pennsylvania. The survey
was conducted January 22-25, 2024, and has a margin of error of ±3.46%. The memo below outlines
some key findings from the survey.

The political environment is favorable for a Republican.

 A solid majority (74%) say the country is off on the wrong track and nearly six-in-ten (59%) say
they disapprove of the job President Biden is doing, including nearly half (48%) who say they
strongly disapprove.

 Donald Trump leads Joe Biden 48%-42% with Independents breaking for former President
Trump 48%-39%.

 Voters prefer a Republican U.S. Senator to a Democratic one by a margin of 43%-41%.

Despite over 30 years in elected office, Senator Bob Casey’s image is soft; this race is more like an
open seat than a race against an entrenched incumbent.

 Bob Casey’s image in the state is soft (40% favorable and 25% unfavorable.) Only 18% have a
strongly favorable impression of him and over a third (35%) either have never heard of or do not
have an opinion of him.

 MAJORITIES of voters give Casey only fair or poor ratings when it comes to “getting things done”
(50%) or “standing up to powerful insiders” (55%.)

 In both our survey and in focus groups, voters struggle to identify a single issue or
accomplishment they associate with Casey other than he is the incumbent Democratic Senator.
Even voters’ recall of Casey’s father as Governor is a very distant, foggy memory.

Once voters learn about Dave McCormick’s background and issue positions, Dave takes the lead.

 Nearly 70% of voters have either never heard of or do not have an opinion of Dave. Because of
this deficit in Name ID, Bob Casey starts with a 47%-40% lead with another 12% undecided.
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 The undecided voters are predisposed to move toward Dave. They are disproportionately
Republican, prefer a Republican to represent them in the Senate and are voting for Trump over
Biden by a two-to-one margin (58%-24%.)

 Once voters hear a neutral description of both candidates, Dave earns majority support. This
shows both how weak Casey’s support is and how strong Dave’s biography and issue positions
are in contrast with Casey.

For whom would you vote in the election for U.S. Senate if you learned that...(ROTATE)

52% Republican Dave McCormick is a West Point graduate and combat Army veteran who
helped build a business that created hundreds of jobs in Pennsylvania. Dave has never
held office and is running to shake up the Senate, secure the southern border, and bring
jobs back to America from China.
...while...
45% Democrat Bob Casey is Pennsylvania's Senior Senator and the son of a former Governor.
Casey is running for re-election to stand up to greedy corporate interests on behalf of
Pennsylvanians and to protect democracy.

 This point is reaffirmed by the data from our earlier survey which showed Dave McCormick
LEADING Casey by a similar margin (50%-41%) after hearing only positive information about
McCormick.

When voters learn more about Casey’s record of making life tougher and less safe for hard working
Pennsylvanians, Dave expands his lead. Just a few examples:

 When voters hear about Casey’s votes to raise taxes while giving tax breaks to California and
New York millionaires, 75% are less likely to vote for Casey.

 When voters hear about Casey’s delayed reporting of stock sales/seemingly insider trading
deals, 73% are less likely to vote for him.

 When voters hear about his votes to clip $716 billion dollars out of Medicare, 70% are less likely
to vote for him.

*Casey is being whipsawed by three factors: 1) After 30 years of office, voters don’t know Bob
Casey nor do they associate him with any issue or accomplishment; 2) his record in the senate –
voting and otherwise – is very contrary to voters’ attitudes; and 3) Casey’s record taps into
voters’ extreme dissatisfaction and desire for change.

The Bottom Line: Dave McCormick’s background as a combat veteran and successful businessman offer
the perfect contrast to career politician Bob Casey and his long record of making life more difficult and
less safe for Pennsylvanians. Add in a favorable environment for Republicans in the state, and Dave
McCormick is well positioned to win in November.

Please do not hesitate to call with any questions.