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CUT-IN NOTE

Weibull parameter estimation –

a comparison of different methods
H Basumatary1, E Sreevalsan2 and K K Sasi3*
2Centre for Wind Energy Technology, Chennai, India
3Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, Coimbatore, India

Email for communication <kk_sasi@ettimadai.amrita.edu>

ABSTRACT
The Weibull probability function is a widely accepted tool to model wind regimes. This
paper presents a comparative study of different methods used to estimate Weibull
parameters of a wind regime. Five different methods are described and used for the
estimation. Time series data of wind speed over a whole year for two sites have been used for
the study. The results obtained as a plot of error versus wind speed are similar in all the five
methods, yet the method of standard deviation gives the best results.

1. INTRODUCTION
It is generally accepted that a wind regime is best represented by Weibull probability
distribution and it is a common practice today to use Weibull probability density function
(PDF), f(V), in wind regime analysis [1]. The 2-parameter Weibull model is not well accepted
by some scholars for its theoretical shortcomings in representing real world wind velocity
patterns, yet all will agree that it is the industry standard [2].
Weibull PDF is expressed as

f(V) = (k/c)(V/c)k-1 exp[-(V/c)k] ( k>0,V>0,c>1 ) (1)

where, V is the wind speed, c is the Weibull scale parameter with the same unit as that of wind
speed and k is the dimensionless Weibull shape parameter.
Different methods are available to estimate the Weibull parameters [1, 3, 4, 5, 6]. However,
the parameter values obtained vary with the method used, even with the same set of wind
data. Therefore there is scope for a comparative study of different methods of evaluation of
Weibull parameters. An effort has been made in this paper to suggest the best practice based
on such a comparison.

2. METHODS OF ESTIMATION OF WEIBULL PARAMETERS

The methods selected for the comparative study are (i) least square linearisation method
(LS), (ii) standard deviation method (SD), (iii) WMO method, (iv) Justus approximation
method (JA) and, (v) the maximum likelihood method
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310 W EIBULL PARAMETER ESTIMATION – A COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT METHODS

2.1. Least square linearisation method (LS)

If F(vi) is a cumulative distribution function defined as the probability that a measured wind
speed will be less than or equal to vi, then,

i
F(vi) = ∑ P(vj) (2)
j=1

The cumulative distribution function is represented by the Weibull parameters as [1],

F(v)=1 – exp [–(v/c)k] (3)

F(v) contains an exponential term and, in general, exponentials are linearised by taking
the logarithm. Then
ln [–ln(1–F(v))] = k ln v – k ln c (4)

Eqn (4) is in the form of an equation of a straight line. So,

y = ax + b (5)
where x and y are variables, a is the slope, and b is the intercept of the line on the y axis. Also,

y= ln [–ln(1–f(v))], a=k, x=ln v, and b=–k ln c (6)

It is shown [1] that the proper values for a and b are:

w
∑ p2(vi)(xi – x)(yi – –y)
I=1
a= w (7)
∑ p2(vi)(xi – –x)2
i=1

1 w a w
b= ∑ yi – ∑ xi (8)
w i=1 w i=1

where x– and y– are the mean values of xi and yi respectively and w is the total number of pairs
of values available.
Then the Weibull parameters are,
k=a (9)

and, c = exp(-b/k) (10)

2.2. Standard deviation (SD) method

The standard deviation is defined [2] as,

∞
σ = [ ∫ (v – –v)2 f(v)dv] (11)
o

–
where v is the mean wind speed given by

–v = ∞∫ v f(v) dv (12)
o

Then from eqn.(1) and eqn.(14),

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W IND E NGINEERING VOLUME 27, N O . 6, 2003 311

–v = ∞∫ v f(v) dv (13)
o

and

2 1
σ = c [ Γ (1 + ) – Γ2 (1 + )] (14)
k k

Further,
2 1
[Γ (1 + ) – Γ2 (1 + )]
σ k k
= (15)
k 1
Γ (1 + )
k

From hourly average wind speed data and can be calculated directly [3] and then the
value of k can be obtained through iteration of eqn (15).

2.3. World meteorological organisation method (WMO)

World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has suggested a method for calculation of k and c.
It uses the following expressions of mean wind speed and mean square of wind speed [4]:

–v = c Γ ( 1 ) (16)
k k

– 2c2 2
v2 = Γ( ) (17)
k k

With the values of σ and v– obtained from hourly average wind speed data and using Eqns.
(11), (16) and (17) simultaneously, the Weibull parameters can be calculated.

2.4. Justus approximation method (JA)

Modifying the method of standard deviation, Justus has suggested [1] the following
expressions for Weibull parameters:
k = (σ / –v .)–1.086 (18)

c = –v + [Γ(1+1/k)] (19)

2.5. The maximum likelihood method (ML)

The maximum likelihood method uses time series data for calculation of Weibull parameters
[5]. The shape factor k and the scale factor c are estimated using the following two equations:

n n
∑ vikln(vi) ∑ (vi)
i=1 i=1
k= n
– (20)
∑ vik n
i=1

1 n k 1/k
c={ ∑v } (21)
n i=1 i
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312 W EIBULL PARAMETER ESTIMATION – A COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT METHODS

where n is the number of nonzero wind speed data readings. Eqn.(20) can be solved using an
iterative process and then Eqn.(21) can be solved explicitly.

3. WIND SPEED DATA FOR COMPUTATION OF WEIBULL PARAMETERS

Time series data of wind speed over a whole year for two sites namely, Poompuhar (for the
year 1992) and Puri (for the year 1989) in India have been used here to compute c and k
parameters by each of the five methods mentioned above. The time series data are one hour
average values. The data have been developed through wind speed monitoring carried out at
each of the two sites by using a second data logger which has a sampling period of two
seconds. The data logger averages the samples over an hour to store the hourly mean value.
There are 8760 data points in each series.

4. RESULTS
Probability Distribution Function (PDF) values obtained by the different methods have been
plotted against the wind speed in Fig 1 and Fig 2. The values in the plot indicated by ‘*’ are the
values directly obtained from the time series data by manual counting, rather than by
electronic processes as the other data.. The PDF obtained by the methods of WMO and Justus
(JA) approximation are very nearly the same for corresponding values of wind speeds, so
only the WMO plot is drawn.

0.08
WMO/JA
LS
0.07

0.06

0.05
PDF (p.u.)

0.04
PDF

0.03 ML

0.02 SD

0.01

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
wind speed (mph)
Figure 1. PDF values of different methods plotted against wind speed (Site: Poompuhar)
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W IND E NGINEERING VOLUME 27, N O . 6, 2003 313

0.1

0.09
WMO
0.08 LS
ML

0.07
PDF (p.u.)

0.06 SD
PDF

0.05

0.04
LS
0.03 SD
WMO/JA
0.02 ML

0.01

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
wind speed (mph)
Figure 2. PDF values of different methods plotted against wind speed (Site: Puri)

Table 1. Weibull parameters obtained by different methods[A1]

Site: Poompuhar Site: Puri
Evaluation method c (mph) k c (mph) k
Least square linearisation 10.7 1.97 10.0 1.59
Standard deviation 11.8 2.08 10.7 1.74
WMO 11.5 2.09 10.7 1.76
Maximum likelihood 11.5 2.06 9.71 1.76
Justus approximation 11.5 2.09 10.7 1.76

The absolute differences in the estimated PDF values with respect to the directly
measured value for the respective wind speed were also derived for each method of
estimation. The results are plotted in Fig 3 and Fig 4[A2]. A positive error indicates a value
higher than the measured one while a negative error represents a value below the measured
one.
Of course, we are not saying that even perfectly recorded filed data would fit a Weibull
Distribution, since the true form of the probability distribution may be that of another function
or of no continuos function at all.

5. CONCLUSION:
The results of the study do not suggest one among the five methods of Weibull parameters
estimation as the most accurate over the entire range of wind speed. Yet the relative merit of
standard deviation (SD) method is apparent in case of Poompuhar and, to some extent, Puri
also. Our conclusions are justifiable for the particular time series sets used, and may be
applicable for other data sets.
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314 W EIBULL PARAMETER ESTIMATION – A COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT METHODS

0.025

0.02

0.015

0.01
Error in PDF estimation

0.005

21

23

25

27

29
9

11

13

15

17

19
1

-0.005

-0.01

-0.015

-0.02

-0.025

-0.03
Wind speed (mph)

LS SD WMO ML

Figure 3. Absolute error in PDF values (Poompuhar)

0.03

0.02
Error in PDF estimation

0.01

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35

-0.01

-0.02

-0.03
Wind speed (mph)

LS SD WMO ML

Figure 4. Absolute error in PDF values (Puri)

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6. REFERENCES
1. Gary L. Johnson (1985), Wind Energy Systems 1985, Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs,
New Jersey 07632.
2. J. C. Chadee and C. Sharma (2001) Wind speed distributions: a new catalogue of defined
models, Wind Engineering, Vol. 25, No. 6.
3. E.H. Lysen (1983), Introduction to Wind Energy Basic and Advance Introduction to
Wind Energy With Emphasis on Water Pumping Windmills, CWD-Consultancy
Services Wind Energy Developing Countries, P.O.Box 85-3800 AB Amersfoort, The
Netherlands.
4. WHO (1981), Meteorological Aspects Of The Utilization Of Wind As An Energy Source,
World Meteorological Organisation,Technical Note no. 175, Secretariat of the World
Meteorological Organization – Geneva, Switzerland.
5. J.V.Seguro, T.W.Lambert (2000), Modern estimation of the parameters of the Weibull
wind speed distribution for wind energy analysis, Journal of Wind Engineering and
Industrial Aerodynamics 85, pp. 75-84.
6. G.J. Bowden, P.R. Barker, V.O. Shestopal and J.W. Twidell J.W, Weibull distribution and
distribution and wind power statistics, Wind Engineering, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 85-97, 1983
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