Probability (lecture)

Probability is the measure of likelihood of an event.

Event is an outcome or a collection of outcomes of interest.
Experiment/Trial is an action or a happening that has possible
outcomes.
Sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
An event is a subset of the sample space.
Theoretical probability is the number of ways the event can occur
divided by the total number of possibilities.
Empirical probability is the number of times the event occurred
divide by the total number of trials.

Axioms of probability
1. 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝑋) ≤ 1 ; the probability is zero if the event is
impossible and one if the event is certain.
2. 𝛴𝑃(𝑋) = 1 ; the sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes
of an experiment is always 1.
3. 𝑃(𝑋) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋′) ; the probability of an event happening is
1 minus the probability of the event not happening.

• NOT : implies 'everything but this'.

Transated as 'subtraction' in
mathematics. Represented in set
theory as the area shaded everywhere
outside the set.

Equally likely outcome case

• All the outcomes have the same probability.
𝑛(𝑋)
• 𝑃(𝑋) = ; the number of outcomes of interest over the
𝑛(𝑆)
total outcomes in the sample space.
• Possibility space diagram is best for equally likely outcomes.

Sherry
Q1. A card is drawn at random from an ordinary pack of 52 playing cards.
a. Find the probability that the card drawn is
i. The four of spades,
ii. The four of spades or any diamond,
iii. Not a picture card (Jack or Queen or King) of any suit.
b. The card drawn is the three of diamonds. It is placed on the table and
a second card is drawn. What is the probability that the second card
is not a diamond?

Q2. A cubicle dice, numbered 1 to 6, is weighed so that a six is twice as

likely to occur as any other number. Find the probability of
a. A six occurring,
b. An odd number occurring.

Q3. Two ordinary unbiased dice are thrown. Find the probability that
a. the sum of the two dice is 3,
b. the sum of the two dice exceeds 9,
c. the two dice show the same number,
d. the numbers on the two dice differ by more than 2.

WORKSHEET 1

• AND : implies both.

Translated as multiplication
in mathematics. Representd
as intersection in set theory.

Q4. A group of 50 people was asked which of the three newspapers, A, B

and C they read. The results showed that 25 read A, 16 read B, and 14 read
C, 5 read both A and B, 4 read both B and C, 6 read both C and A and 2 read
all 3. Represent these data on a Venn diagram.
Find the probability that a person selected at random from this group reads
a. At least one of the newspapers,
b. Only 1 of the newspapers,
c. Only A.

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 • OR : implies either one or both.
Translated as addition in
mathematics. Represented
as union in set theory.

• The general addition rule:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

19 2
Q5. Events C and D are such that 𝑃(𝐶) = and 𝑃(𝐷) = and
30 5
4
𝑃(𝐶 ∪ 𝐷) = . Find 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷).
5

Q6. In a class of 20 children, 4 of the 9 boys and 3 of the 11 girls are in the
athletics team. A person from the class is chosen to be in the 'egg and
spoon' race on Sports Day. Find the probability that the person chosen is
a. In the athletics team,
b. Female,
c. A female member of the athletics team
d. A female or in the athletics team.

• 𝐴∩𝐵 =𝐵∩𝐴
• Only A:
o (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) − 𝐵

o 𝐴 − (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )

• Only B:
o (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) − 𝐴

o 𝐵 − (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )

• De Morgan's Law:
o 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵 ′ = (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 )′

o 𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵 ′ = (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )′

Sherry
Q7. In a survey, 15% of the participants said that they had never bought a
lottery ticket or a premium bond, 73% had bought lottery ticket and 49%
had bought premium bonds.
Find the probability that a person chosen at random from those taking part
in the survey
a. Had bought lottery tickets or premium bonds,
b. Had bought lottery tickets and premium bonds
c. Had bought lottery tickets only.

• Two events are said to be mutually

exclusive if they cannot occur at the
same time.
𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩)

• Two events are said to be exhaustive if they make up the

entire possibility space.
𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝟏

Q8. In a race in which there are no dead heats, the probability that John
wins is 0.3, the probability that Paul wins is 0.2 and the probability that
Mark wins is 0.4. Find the probability that
a. John or Mark wins,
b. John or Paul or Mark wins,
c. Someone else wins.
d. Are the three events exhaustive? Why?

Independent Events
Two events are said to be independent if they do not influence the
probability of each other's outcomes.
• 𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴) × 𝑃 (𝐵 )

• General multiplication rule:

𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ … ∩ 𝐴𝑛 ) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ) × 𝑃(𝐴2 ) × … × 𝑃(𝐴𝑛 )

Sherry
Q9. In a group of 60 students, 20 study History, 24 study French and 8
study both History and French. Are the events ‘a student studies History’
and ‘a student studies French’ independent?
Q10. Two ordinary fair dice, one red and one blue, are to be rolled once.
a. Find the probabilities of the following events:
Event A: the number showing on the red die will be a 5 or a 6.
Event B: the total of the numbers showing on the two dice will be
7,
Event C: the total of the numbers showing on the two dice will be
8.
b. State, with a reason, which two of the events A, B and C are mutually
exclusive.
c. Show that the events A and B are independent.

A probability tree diagram elaborates all the possible outcomes of

an experiment. It can be drawn for independent events provided
the events are not too many with too many outcomes.

Q11. (N10/61/Q5)

WORKSHEET 2

Dependent Events (conditional probability)

Two events are said to be dependent if they influence the
probability of each other's outcomes.

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 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
𝑷(𝑨⁄𝑩) = ⟹ 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨⁄𝑩) × 𝑷(𝑩)
𝑷(𝑩)
𝑷(𝑩 ∩ 𝑨)
𝑷(𝑩⁄𝑨) = ⟹ 𝑷(𝑩 ∩ 𝑨) = 𝑷(𝑩⁄𝑨) × 𝑷(𝑨)
𝑷(𝑨)

Q12. When a die was thrown the score was an odd number. What was the
probability that it was a prime number?

Q13. 𝑋 and 𝑌 are two events such that 𝑃(𝑋|𝑌) = 0.4, 𝑃(𝑌) = 0.25 and
𝑃(𝑋) = 0.2. Find,
a. 𝑃(𝑌|𝑋)
b. 𝑃(𝑋 ∪ 𝑌)

Q14. (N12/63/Q3)

• A tree diagram is a useful tool in case of dependent events.

Sherry
Q15. (N09/62/Q3)

Q16. (J13/61/Q7)

Q17. (J14/61/Q5)

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Q18. (J10/61/Q7)

WORKSHEET 3
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