www.juicemarket.

info

JANUARY 2024

ISSN 1746-9805 (Online)

IN THIS ISSUE:
ORANGE JUICE
Prices on frozen concentrated orange
juice (FCOJ) futures market have eased
considerably over the past month –
albeit still at historically high levels.
APPLE JUICE
Cold store processing in Poland contin-
ues with around 20-30% of the available
apples being utilised by the industry.
GRAPEFRUIT JUICE
The USDA’s current forecast on
Florida’s 2023/24 grapefruit is 2.40
million boxes.
GRAPE JUICE
Producers in Argentina say they ex-
pect to have the first indications on
new season production later this month.
LEMON JUICE
Growing conditions for the 2024 crop in
Argentina are favourable so far.
ORANGE JUICE
USA
The USDA’s current forecast on
Florida’s 2023/24 orange crop was
carried forward from the initial October
projection at 20.5 million boxes. If
realized, this will be 30% higher than
last season’s final production.
The forecast for non-Valencia
production is 7.50 million boxes,
unchanged from the October forecast.
Final fruit size is projected to be below
the minimum at harvest. Current
droppage is above average and
projected to be above average at
harvest. The Navel forecast, included
in the non-Valencia forecast, is 300
000 boxes, comprising 4% of the non-
Valencia total.
The forecast for Valencia production
is 13.0 million boxes, unchanged from
October. Current fruit size is below
450
average and is projected to be below
average at harvest. Current droppage
is projected to be above average at
harvest.
Juice ratios are registering at 15.00,
against 14.46 at the same time last
year. Juice yields are at 5.61 gallons
per box, compared with 5.69 gallons
per box last year.
Industry opinion
Analysts in the US are divided as
to which direction the crop number
will now go. Some suggest that the
pickouts for the early fruit are lighter
than expected and that there could
be a cut to the next forecast. Others,
meanwhile, maintain that the fruit drop
is over estimated and that without a
freeze event the final crop number
could be higher.
Growing and harvesting conditions
are very good – the groves in Florida

FCOJ FUTURES
PINEAPPLE JUICE 400
225.85 420.70
The winter crop in Thailand is still 02 NOV 2016 23 NOV 2023
350
continuing at a slow pace. The crop was
delayed by around six weeks.
300

MANGO JUICE
250
The Winter crop in Colombia seems
stable and is not affected by the
200
adverse weather seen in other parts of
South America.
150

PASSION FRUIT JUICE 100

Passion fruit plantations in Ecuador 105.35 131.40 91.25
have been impacted by heavy rains for 02 OCT 2015 21 JUN 2017 07 MAY 2019
50
two months now and harvesting is slow
US cents/lb solid nearby contract, day close
as a result.
0
5/3/09 5/3/10 5/3/11 5/3/12 5/3/13 5/3/14 5/3/15 5/3/16 5/3/17 5/3/18 5/3/19 5/3/20 5/3/21 5/3/22 5/3/23

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Issue 219 www.juicemarket.info Page 1

 JANUARY 2024

have had plenty of cool weather for BRAZILIAN ORANGE AND ORANGE JUICE
the trees to store energy for a bloom.
The cold fronts coming through have
PRODUCTION
brought beneficial rain and there is no
sign of a freeze on the horizon. The commercial area in the state of Sao Paulo and the western part of Minas
Gerais should contribute 307 million boxes (12.52 million tonnes) for the 2023/24
season.
Futures
Total Brazilian FCOJ (65 brix equivalent) production for 2023/24 is estimated
Prices on frozen concentrated orange
at 1.11 million tonnes, compared with 1.12 million tonne the year before. The
juice (FCOJ) futures market have
decrease is due to downward expected availability of fruit for processing provoked
eased considerably over the past
by extremely high temperatures and the greening incidence. Orange juice figures
month – albeit still at historically high
include NFC production for exports converted to FCOJ 65 brix equivalent. There is
levels. The front month is currently
no official estimate for NFC supply and demand in Brazil. Domestic consumption
trading around USD3.38/lb solid,
of FCOJ (equivalent) for 2023/24 is expected to be on par with the year before at
after peaking at USD4.25/lb in late
75 000 tonnes.
November.
“The market was well offered up above
(USD4.00/lb) and it sold off to test the Trade
prior low. It took a couple weeks of Total Brazilian FCOJ equivalent exports for 2023/24 is forecast at 1.03 million
consolidation to break that low, but tonnes, a decrease of 1.9% compared with the 1.05 million tonnes exported in
when it did, the spec (speculators) 2022/23, due to production challenges, mainly impacted by weather conditions
longs (long positions) bailed out, and greening incidences. NFC exports for 2023/24 are estimated at 320 000
sending the market further down. We tonnes, a slight increase of 1.5% compared with the previous season’s shipments
are still seeing spec liquidation and of 315 000 tonnes. The increase is mainly attributed to supplying the US market
probing to further lows,” said one due to limited juice availability from Florida provoked by hurricane Ian as well as
trader. shortfalls in the Mexican and Spanish market, which have faced severe droughts.
The main drivers for the futures
market over the next couple of months Stocks
include the weather in Florida, Mexico
According to the USDA, ending stocks for 2023/24 crop are forecast at 4 000
and Brazil – any cold weather in North
tonnes (65 brix), down from the already low stock levels of 8 170 tonnes in
America and warm/dry weather in
2023/24. The USDA stock figures only include stocks in the storage tanks of
Brazil are of particular concern.
orange juice facilities (processing plants and port terminals) in Brazil. They do
Analysts are also keeping a close eye not include stocks owned by Brazilian companies abroad, e.g. in transit and port
on the crop updates for the US, Mexico terminals in the US, Europe and Japan.
and Brazil. There are continued
According to CitrusBR, global Brazilian orange juice inventories were at 85 745
reports about the recent hot and dry
tonnes (FCOJ equivalent) on 30 June 2023. This figure includes orange juice in
weather in Brazil impacting the bloom
storage tanks at processing plants and port terminals in Brazil and stocks abroad
for next years crop there, which would
(vessels and port facilities worldwide).
keep global inventories very tight for
even longer. BRAZIL ORANGE JUICE (65 brix equivalent) Tonnes
Analysts in the US are also trying to Season 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
gauge how much juice is coming into
Beginning stocks 15 000 9 000 8170
the US from Mexico, with the new crop
in Mexico about to start. Production 1 135 000 1 124 170 1 105 700

With the current elevated pricing, Exports 1 068 000 1 050 000 1 034 870
demand in US and the EU is also a Dom. consumption 73 000 75 000 75 000
major focus.
Ending stocks 9 000 8 170 4 000
Traders suggest that if the speculators
decide to take short positions, the
market may test the USD3.00/lb-mark, Total distribution 1 150 000 1 133 170 1 133 870
but market sentiment is that prices will Source: USDA

Issue 219 www.juicemarket.info Page 2


recover back to slightly higher levels.
In terms of fundamentals; there is
no FCOJ pack yet, FCOJ movement
is down but that could be driven by
imports from Brazil. Inventory is down
to just 15.4 weeks of supply.
Consumption
With such tight supplies, the market
needed “demand destruction” to
prevent supplies from running out and
it seems uptake will continue to fall for
the time being.
When, and if, supplies are replenished,
the industry will make concerted
efforts to regain the demand that was
lost, but for now the US retail market
continues to see very high rates of
demand erosion. The latest US retail
sales numbers show that total orange
juice sales are down -14.7%.
Mexico
The industry in Mexico still expects a
27% increase in fruit production and
58% boost in orange juice production
from the forthcoming crop, compared
with last year. The season will start the
first week of January.
Local sources in Mexico say it is
difficult to estimate the size of “normal
crop” anymore, due to climate
change and HLB impacts, but that the
Valencia crop size seems in line with
current estimates. The valencia crop
size should be between 65-70 million
boxes.
Growing and harvesting conditions
were favourable in the last quarter of
2023 and local processors say they
are seeing an improvement in juice
ratios and brix compared with the
last two years. However, the industry
is expecting lower yields due to a
lower juice percentage in the fruit this
season.
Offers for FCOJ out of Mexico are
between USD5800-6000/tonne 66 brix
FCA Europe.FCOJ prices to the USA
Issue 219
JANUARY 2024
FUNDECITRUS UPDATE ON BRAZIL’S 2023/24
ORANGE CROP
Fundecitrus has released the second production forecast for the 2023/24 orange
crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt of Brazil of
307 million boxes, marginally lower than the initial forecast of 309 million boxes.
Oranges have not reached their projected sizes due to below-average rainfall and
high temperatures in the latter half of 2023. In addition, a variation in fruit sizing
has been observed in regions with different severity levels of citrus greening,
suggesting that the increased intensity of the disease is also one of the factors
affecting the growth of oranges. Another impactful factor is the accelerated pace
at which harvesting progresses, leading to a shorter period for fruit development.
Despite harming orange growth, faster harvesting is emerging as a strategy to
reduce the fruit drop rate, thus mitigating crop losses. However, it is essential to
note that, in the present days, the drop rate has been impacted mainly by citrus
greening, remaining above historical levels.
The third crop forecast update is due on 9 February 2024 and the final crop
forecast will be released on 10 April 2024.
Source: Fundecitrus
are expected to be around USD3.80- there is not expected to be much fruit
4.00/lb solid delivered to Florida. left available on the spot market. The
NFC prices for the US and Europe large Brazilian producers that own
are expected to be around USD1400/ their own plantations are currently
tonne delivered. focussing on crushing fruit to NFC
juice for the US market.
Producers say that demand is strong
from all regions as customers look to
secure volumes for 2024. Next crop
While the heatwave has now subsided
Brazil in the main Brazilian growing regions,
industry sources say that temperatures
Fundecitrus has released the second
are still well above average for the
production forecast for the 2023/24
time of year. Industry sources say that
orange crop in the São Paulo and
the heatwave has definitely impacted
West-Southwest of Minas Gerais
the supply for the next 2024/25 crop.
citrus belt of Brazil of 307 million
Original estimates based on the bloom
boxes, marginally lower than the
suggested that production from the
initial forecast of 309 million boxes
2024/25 crop would probably be
(see boxed out section for further
similar to the current crop. However,
information).
analyst say it is difficult to project
Analysts say that the new forecast the potential output now due to a
from Fundescitrus was not a surprise combination factors:
to the industry. With the crop now
On the positive side, the groves have
winding up, there is unlikely to be any
been well looked after over the past
impact from weather events on the
year, which would support better
current crop going forward, so the final
production. However, the crops over
crop number should be very similar.
the past two years have been fairly
The majority of the fruit has now been big, which could suggest that the trees
harvested and by the end of January may need a rest next season and so
www.juicemarket.info Page 3

this would point to a smaller crop. In
addition, the expansion of greening
disease, which is thought to be in
more than 50% of the groves now, is
a concern for growers. And then there
is of course, the heatwave’s impact
on the flowering last year. Given the
above factors, some “guesstimates”
from the industry peg the next crop
somewhere between 265-275 million
boxes. Most industry sources suggest
the crop is more likely to smaller than
bigger than the current crop.
Pricing
Fruit on the spot market is currently
changing hand for as much as BRL70/
box – similar to last month.
Offers for concentrate are also on par
with last month at USD6000/tonne 66
brix FCA Europe. Although, there are
some reports of small trades going
through as high as USD6500/tonne.
Asking prices for NFC supplies
are around USD1200/tonne single
strength FCA Europe, against
USD1200-1500/tonne last month.
Analyst do not expect prices to change
in the medium terms, mainly because
there are no supplies available on the
market and therefore trading activity is
extremely thin. There are also no new
volumes expected to come on to the
market in the near term.
The larger processors in Brazil are
more or less now sold out and most of
the trading is for small, top-up stocks
of lower quality supplies destined for
blends and compounds, say traders.
It is difficult to determine how far
ahead buyers are covered, but traders
say that if buyers have covered their
needs until next season then they
have done very well.
As mentioned, the market has been
quiet over the past month, as it
usually is at this time of year, but the
next three weeks could be crucial
as buyers begin to come back to the
market looking to take new positions.
Issue 219
JANUARY 2024
MEXICO ORANGE AND ORANGE JUICE
PRODUCTION
The USDA forecasts orange production ins Mexico for 2023/24 at 4.87 million
tonnes, marginally higher the 4.85 million tonnes from the previous year.
Production of frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) for 2023/24 is forecast
at 155 000 tonnes, a 10% increase from the 140 000 tonnes estimated to have
been produced the previous year. In 2020/21 Mexico produced 215 000 tonnes.
The increased availability of fruit in 2023/24 is expected to have better size and
higher juice content. Depending on fresh fruit availability and quality, Mexico
generally sends around 40-50% of its orange production into juice processing.
Domestic consumption for 2023/24 is forecast at 7 000 tonnes, 14% higher than
the previous year.
According to the industry, less than 5% of Mexico’s orange juice/concentrate
production goes towards domestic juice and beverage industries. Mexico’s
domestic FCOJ consumption also ultimately depends on US demand, because
juice producers first look to supply the export market.
FCOJ exports for 2023/24 are forecast at 150 000 tonnes, 8% above the 139 000
tonnes shipped in 2022/23 due to the higher available supply of larger fruit with
more juice content and thus higher juice yield/production.
The US market is preferred by Mexican exporters due to proximity and logistics.
Source: USDA
EU ORANGE AND ORANGE JUICE
PRODUCTION
EU orange production in 2023/24 is projected to reach 5.4 million tonnes, 2%
lower than the already short EU orange output level registered in 2022/23.
EU orange juice production in 2023/24 is projected at 47 300 tonnes, down
from the 48 400 tonnes in 2022/23. The smaller volume of oranges devoted for
processing purposes for the second consecutive year is attributed to the short
internal availability. When supplies are tight, orange producers prioritize the most
profitable fresh market. Nevertheless, the EU orange processing industry plays
a key role in stabilizing the EU orange market balance when ample supply is
available, or fruit sizes do not meet fresh market standards.
In 2023/24, orange juice consumption is expected to drop from previous season
levels, as food inflation continues to affect consumers’ choices, and orange juice
faces increased competition by a wide range of alternative drinks and fruit juices.
In 2023/24 EU orange juice imports are revised down to 508 000 tonnes from
525 000 tonnes the previous year. Brazil dominates the EU orange juice import
market. In 2022/23, EU imports from Egypt and South Africa experienced
significant increases, surpassing in value the exports from Mexico, the EU’s
traditional second largest suppliers of orange juice. In 2023/24, EU orange juice
exports are expected to drop slightly in line with the lower EU orange domestic
production. The United Kingdom remains by far the largest destination of EU
orange juice.
Source: USDA
www.juicemarket.info Page 4

Consumption
Consumption in Europe is still
estimated to be down by 10-20%, but
some analysts question whether this is
due to higher retail pricing or the fact
that in many European supermarkets
there is no orange juice available to
buy. Some of the packers have no
juice to pack and therefore can not
supply the retail chains.
APPLE JUICE
Cold store processing in Poland
continues with around 20-30% of the
available apples being utilised by the
industry. In November and December
around 100 000-150 000 tonnes of
fruit were crushed, mainly to NFC
juice. The current quality of the fruit is
very good, and the industry receives
higher rewards for NFC supplies.
Industry sources estimate production
from the recent crop, which wound up
in late-October, at 3.25-3.75 million
tonnes for Poland, significantly lower
than the 4.0 million tonnes that The
World Apple and Pear Association
(WAPA) announced at the start of the
crop in August 2023.
Analysts say that scab disease has
been destroying orchards, which were
not, or not fully, protected by fungicides
in the early period of vegetation in April
and May last year. The conditions for
scab infection were ideal last year
and the extent of the problem was not
realised until the crop began.
If the apple crop is just 3.25 million
tonnes, the output of apple juice
concentrate should be around 200
000 tonnes. If output is as high as
3.75 million tonnes then concentrate
production could reach 275 000
tonnes. During the 2022/23 season,
production of apple juice concentrate
from Poland reached 370 000 tonnes,
so the market can expect a reduction
of at least 100 000 tonnes year-on-
year. Nevertheless, the supply in
2019/20 and 2020/21 was around
Issue 219
JANUARY 2024
next three weeks could be crucial
GLOBAL ORANGE AND JUICE PRODUCTION
as buyers begin to come back to the Consumption
market looking to take new positions.
Consumption
China - Orange production in China for 2023/24 in Europe
is expected to reachis7.63
still million
tonnes, against 7.60 million tonnes the previous year. Orange juice production
in 2023/24 is forecast at 17 500 tonnes, up nearly 3% from the previous year.
Orange juice consumption in China is forecast to grow slightly to 139 510 tonnes
due to the continuous demand for NFC and 100% orange juices.
South Africa - In 2023/24 orange production in South Africa is forecast at
1.62 million tonnes, against 1.63 million tonnes the year before. Orange juice
production in 2023/24 is forecast at 31 000 tonnes, against 32 000 tonnes the
year before.
Morocco - For 2023/2024 orange production in Morocco is expected to increase
by 5%, reaching 820 000 tonnes. Orange juice production for 2023/24 at 55 000
tonnes is 37 % higher than 2022/23.
Egypt - In 2023/24 orange production in Egypt is forecast to increase to 3.7
million tonnes compared with 3.6 million tonnes the year before. The USDA
expects 300 000 tonnes of fruit to go to the processing sector in 2023/24 – on par
with the previous two years.
Australia - Production of oranges is expected to increase in Australia in 2023/24
to 530 000 tonnes from an estimated 505 000 tonnes in 2022/23. If realized, this
would be Australia’s second-highest result over the last two decades. Orange
juice production in 2023/24 is forecast at 15 400 tonnes, a decrease of 4% from
the 16 100 tonnes produced the previous year.
Source: USDA
200 000 tonnes each year. Analysts Pricing
say the average over last 5 years is Fruit pricing is difficult to pin down due
310 000 tonnes and the average over to the slow processing period recently,
the last decade is 270 000 tonnes. So but are between PLN0.85-0.90/kg,
for the 2023/24 season the industry is compared with 80-95 last month. This
looking at a best case scenario of an time last year fruit was changing hands
average output of apple concentrate. for PLN0.42/kg - giving a year-on-year
increase of around 125%.
Market dynamics Offers for concentrate from Poland
are now between EUR1950-2000/
The market is still considered to be
tonne 70 brix 1.8-2.3% acid ex factory
short, particularly given the slower
Poland – similar to last month.
processing period over Christmas and
New Year. According WAPA, stocks of Demand has been fairly quiet over
apples as of 1 December in Poland were the past month as usual for the time
at 1.225 million tonnes – which is fairly of year. However, these high prices
low looking at 5-year historical data. were unexpected, and rising orange
juice prices is reportedly driving apple
With at least half of the processing
juice prices higher as end-users look
supply heading to NFC production at
to replace orange juice with other
the moment, analysts suggest that no
‘familiar’ juice products.
more than 150 000 tonnes of fruit will
be pressed to concentrate during the Given that the supply of apples in
spring, resulting in around an additional Poland is relatively limited, analysts do
20 000 tonnes of concentrate. Most not expect prices to ease. Particularly
factories are reportedly nearly sold out. when the Ukrainian border is blocked
www.juicemarket.info Page 5

and other global sources have
very little potential to compete with
European prices.
Buyers are treading carefully and are
attempting to secure supplies “bit-
by-bit” to cover their needs until the
2024/25 crop begins. However, one
analyst said that many buyers on the
US market are only covered only for
first quarter of this year.
In related news, the Polish government
has now changed and there is hope
for a way back to more liberal market
conditions. There are more and more
discussions about shared production
for fresh and processing apple
markets, as the share for processing
is steadily growing (up to 70% for the
processing sector). To reduce costs for
industry dedicated apple, a separate
plantation and contracting system
could be installed.
Other sources
Apple prices in Turkey are reported
to be slightly lower than during main
season, but are still around 5-10%
higher than fruit pricing in Poland.
Last month, Turkey was offering
around EUR1800-1900/tonne 70 brix
low acid FOB Turkey.
Pricing in Moldova has also eased
due to a good crop and a higher
percentage than normal reportedly
went to the processing sector there.
Around 300 000 tonnes was processed
during the crop and a further 30 000-
40 000 tonnes is available for Spring
processing. Moldova had advantages
in costs with raw material prices at
USD130-150/tonne. The 45 000-50
000 tons of concentrate available
is now seen as mainly sold out or
allocated.
Meanwhile, the Ukraine is reporting
more and more problems with
the logistics in terms of exporting
concentrate. The border crossing to
Poland is taking a number of weeks
to get supplies through and inside
Issue 219
JANUARY 2024
next three weeks could be crucial
GLOBAL APPLE PRODUCTION
as buyers begin to come back to the Consumption
market looking to take new positions.
Consumption
World apple production for 2023/24 is forecast in Europe
to edge slightly higher,isup
still
175 000
tonnes to 83.1 million tonnes. Recovering supplies in China, South Africa and the
United States more than offset losses in the European Union and Turkey.
China production is forecast up 500 000 tonnes to 45.0 million tonnes. However,
acreage continues to decline due to a policy encouraging or requiring certain
farmland (as defined by government regulations) be used for grains, cotton,
oilseeds, sugar, vegetables, and forages. Growers are working to optimize
production in existing orchards
EU production is expected to slip 475 000 tonnes to 12.2 million tonnes due to
higher-than-normal fruit drop and cold temperatures during bloom which caused
poor pollination, including in top producer Poland. However, quality is expected to
be good with output in France and Spain improving on recovery from last year’s
prolonged high temperatures.
Turkey production is forecast down for the first time since 2014/15, easing
118 000 tonnes to 4.9 million tonnes. Low moisture during the bloom and
unseasonal rains during fruit maturation are expected to lower both yields and
fruit size.
United States production is forecast up 56 000 tonnes to 4.4 million tonnes.
Good growing conditions are expected to spur a recovery in Washington state,
following last year’s damaging spring weather.
Source: USDA
the Ukraine the factories are facing GRAPEFRUIT JUICE
the effects of the war, such as black
outs and personal being called up for
The USDA’s current forecast on
military service.
Florida’s 2023/24 grapefruit is 2.40
million boxes, up 500 000 boxes
China from the initial report in October. If
China had to deal with extremely realized, this will be 33% higher than
high apple prices during the season last season’s final production. The red
with fruit changing hands for as much grapefruit, now at 2.10 million boxes,
as USD200/tonne. The volume of is increased by 450 000 boxes from
concentrate from the recent 2023/24 the October forecast. Fruit size of
crop is not expected to be more than red grapefruit at harvest is projected
400 000 tonnes - and probably closer to be above average, and droppage
to 350 000 tonnes. The industry there is projected to be average. The white
usually produces 500 000+ tonnes. grapefruit forecast is raised by 50 000
Nevertheless, offers for concentrate boxes and is now at 300 000 boxes.
have reportedly eased to USD1530- Projected fruit size of white grapefruit
1550/tonne 70 brix low acid FOB China, at harvest is slightly above average
while projected droppage is below
from USD1650-1700/tonne last month.
average.
Exported volumes between January
and October 2023 were around Some analysts suggest the increase
200 000 tonnes – approximately 30% in production could be attributed to
lower than the same period in 2022. growing grapefruits under screen,
which is almost 100% for the fresh
www.juicemarket.info Page 6

market. There are reportedly now
around 1000 acres under screen –
mostly grapefruit.
Growing and harvesting conditions
in the Florida are fairly normal -
seasonable lower temperatures and
most growing regions have recently
received good rainfall.
As mentioned last month, there is
virtually no field-run utilization of
grapefruit for the juice industry. Analyst
say that Florida production of white
seedless grapefruit - the preferred
variety for grapefruit concentrate – is
decreasing every year.
The juice quality in Florida is similar to
last season, with ratios slightly up, but
brix slightly down.
Offers for red and white grapefruit juice
from Florida are at USD4.20-4.30/lb
solid in drums, against USD4.20/lb
last month.
In terms of the fundamentals,
movement of grapefruit juice is up
in the US and inventory is down so
far this season. There has been no
packing of grapefruit juice concentrate
in Florida yet which means that the
packinghouse eliminations are being
crushed to NFC juice.
Analysts say that global demand
remains muted due to high pricing and
poor availability.
Texas
The USDA’s current forecast on
Florida’s 2023/24 grapefruit is 2.20
million boxes - on par with last month.
Local processors in Texas say the
situation is relatively unchanged on
last month. The season began slowly,
but the industry there has just started
NFC deliveries.
Volumes are still low, but the supply is
expected to ramp up mid-January.
The fruit quality is described as
“very good to excellent” for the fresh
market, which would translate to slow
deliveries to the juice factories. Brix
and ratios are already over 10.
Issue 219
Prices for NFC grapefruit juice from
Texas are expected to be above
USD3.25/gallon FOB Texas. The
limited volumes of concentrate that
will be available are expected to be
offered around USD3.50/lb solid FOB
Texas.
Mexico
The 2023 grapefruit processing
season in Mexico ended in mid-
December. Local sources say the crop
was at least 30% smaller than the
previous year and the availability of
juice supplies is extremely limited as
a result.
Conversely, the USDA forecasts
grapefruit production in Mexico for
2023/24 at 500 000 tonnes against
489 000 tonnes the previous season.
Other sources
Grapefruit production in the EU in
2023/24 is forecast at 104 000 tonnes,
compared with 98 000 tonnes the
year before. Just 12 000 tonnes are
earmarked for processing.
In 2023/24 grapefruit production in
South Africa is forecast at 400 000
tonnes, against 420 000 tonnes the
year before. The USDA expected 170
000 tonnes to go to the processing
sector, compared with 205 000 tonnes
in 2022/23.
GRAPE JUICE
Growing conditions remain favourable
for the forthcoming 2024 grape crop in
Argentina. Local producers say they
expect to have the first indications on
production later this month.
Offers for white grape concentrate is
at USD1800-1900/tonne 68 brix in
drums, against USD1750-1900/tonne
last month.
The sustained elevated pricing is
due to a poor crop last year - fruit
production from the 2023 crop was
www.juicemarket.info
JANUARY 2024
down 35% on a usual season and
juice production was down by 50%.
The higher pricing and subsequent
slower demand have meant that stock
levels are higher than producer would
like. Demand has improved over the
past two months due to higher pricing
on the European grape juice market.
But exports statistics last year are still
registering at less than half that of the
year before. Argentina shipped just
35 800 tonnes between January and
November 2023, compared with 73
600 tonnes during the same period in
2022.
Argentina is also trying to reduce
pricing in a bid to compete with apple
juice concentrate producers. The two
products vie for trade in the blends
market. China is the cheapest sources
of apple juice concentrate at the
moment and is still offering lower than
Argentina can reasonably manage.
There are hopes that the new grape
crop in Argentina will help to reduce
pricing for juice.
While the economic situation in
Argentina is still problematic,
conditions are expected to improve
with the new government in place.
There are still some difficult months
ahead in terms of inflation and how
this will impact on the exchange rate.
LEMON JUICE
The 2023 lemon crop in top-producer
Argentina wound up in late October.
Local sources maintain that fresh
production is expected to be down
by 12% from last season, but that
the juice supply will be similar to last
season.
Current pricing is similar to the last
two months at USD1000-1250/tonne
400gpl FOB Buenos Aires. There are
no further changes expected for pricing
for the coming months, say processors,
who reiterate that the low pricing is
unsustainable in the medium term.
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Demand has been steady, mainly from
Europe and Asia. Buyers are trying to
cover until the new 2024 crop there
begins in March.
There is still a perceived over supply
of lemon juice in Argentina, but
industry sources say that stock levels
are now much lower than they were
this time last year. Uptake has been
fairly good over the past few months
due to the lower pricing, coupled with
some buyers importing lemon juice
to replace orange juice, which is
extremely expensive at the moment.
Growing conditions for the 2024 crop
in Argentina are favourable so far.
Meanwhile, the USDA forecasts lemon
production in Chile in 2023/24 to grow
by 6.7% to reach 175 000 tonnes.
EU lemon production
In 2023/24, EU lemon production
is forecast at just over 1.6 million
tonnes, up from the 1.5 million tonnes
registered in 2022/23, says the USDA.
This production increase is attributed
to an all-time-record output in Spain.
Conversely, a reduced lemon output
is anticipated in Italy and Greece
for 2023/24. Spain and Italy are the
first and second largest EU lemon
producers, accounting for nearly
65% and 30% of the EU’s total lemon
production respectively.
PINEAPPLE JUICE
The winter crop in Thailand is still
continuing at a slow pace. The crop
was delayed by around six weeks due
to a lack of raw materials and therefore
analysts expect the campaign to carry-
on until March/April. This would mean
harvesting of the Winter crop could
run until the start of the Summer crop,
which is known as a “double-crop”.
Nevertheless, there is not expected to
be a peak production period during the
Winter crop.
Growing conditions are currently
Issue 219
favourable in Thailand with plentiful
rain and sunshine. The Winter crop
usually produces lower ratio supplies,
but this season ratios have been good
so far with juice registering at 20-22
ratio.
The annual output of fruit for 2023 in
Thailand is still forecast at just 800 000
tonnes and there is no improvement
expected for production for this year,
say analysts. Just a few years ago
output in Thailand was regularly
reaching 2.0- 2.2 million tonnes.
Processors are currently trying to
source as much raw materials as
possible, which has kept fruit pricing
elevated at THB12/kg.
Offers for concentrate are firm at
USD2500-2600/tonne 60 brix FOB
Thailand, against USD2600/tonne last
month.
Analyst say they have not witnessed
much replanting in Thailand recently,
in spite of the sustained high pricing
for fruit. They suggest that the long-
term price volatility is discouraging
farmers to put acreage to pineapple.
The growing cycle of a pineapple plant
is just 12-15 months, but growers are
well aware that prices could collapse
during that period.
In related news, freight costs from
Asia have spiked due to the issues
surrounding the red sea dispute.
A frozen container is now costing
USD4600, against USD1700 two
months ago. Ships now have to go
around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope
which takes an extra three weeks to
Europe and has resulted in a shortage
of containers.
MANGO JUICE
India
European traders say that supplies of
good quality Alphonso mango puree
from India are now scarce. There
are some volumes sitting with the
smaller producers, but buyers should
www.juicemarket.info
JANUARY 2024
reportedly check the quality of the
supplies.
Last month offers for alphonso mango
puree were at USD1550-1700/tonne
15-17 brix FOB India. Asking prices
for Totapuri mango puree were at
USD1050- 1100/tonne 28 brix FOB
India and offers for single strength
Totapuri puree were between USD580-
700/ tonne FOB India.
Americas
The Winter crop in Colombia seems
stable and is not affected by the
adverse weather seen in other parts of
South America.
Offers for mango concentrate are
hard to pin down. Some producers
are quoting at USD1445/tonne 28
brix FOB Colombia, while traders in
Europe say they have been receiving
offers between USD1100-1400/tonne
28 brix CFR Europe.
Producers in Colombia are currently
offering NFC supplies at USD1085/
tonne single strength FOB Colombia.
Producers say that availability is
extremely limited. With then high price
of orange juice at the moment, some
end users are replacing orange juice
with mango juice in blends and this
has drawn down inventory.
At the same time, traders in Europe
say there are supplies sitting in South
America and that some producers
still have stocks carried over from the
2023 Summer crop.
Demand has reportedly been picking
up and buyers are now starting to ask
for quotes for supplies from the main
Summer crop in Colombia, which will
begin in April.
Meanwhile, Peru reportedly had a very
poor crop and processing is predicted
to be limited as a result. New season
prices should be available later this
month, say traders.
Over in Mexico, the crop is now
over. Stocks of mango concentrate
are available in Mexico, but supplies
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are relatively expensive with most
producers offering no lower than
USD1200/tonne 28 brix FOB Mexico.
Demand is reportedly fairly slow at the
moment.
The next crop in Mexico will begin
in March. Industry sources say the
growing conditions are favourable and
that they expect a “normal to good”
crop.
PASSION FRUIT JUICE
Ecuador
Passion fruit plantations in Ecuador
have been impacted by heavy rains
for two months now and harvesting is
slow as a result.
Producers do not expect any change
to the output in the near term and say
that production will be the same or up
to 20% lower over the next couple of
months.
In spite of the high prices for fruit
recently growers have been unable
to renew plantations due to the poor
climate.
In terms of juice quality, brix levels
have been very low in Ecuador due
to both the weather and genetic
degradation - mainly from the seeds.
This explains the higher cost
Jan/Feb 2024 edtion
out soon!
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information please contact:
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Issue 219
associated with producing concentrate
from low brix fruit supplies.
Fruit pricing is currently around
USD500/tonne, against USD400/
tonne at the start of December.
Pricing for concentrate are pegged at
USD8500+/tonne 50 brix FCA Europe
and NFC supplies are at USD2900+/
tonne single-strength FCA Europe.
The spot market is reportedly empty
and trading activity has been thin.
Most buyers are asking for delivery in
the first quarter and some have begun
to enquire about supplies for the second
quarter, say local producers in Ecuador.
Peru
Production from the 2023 passion
fruit crop in Peru was poor, but there
is expected to be a recovery this year.
In contrast to Ecuador the farmers
were able to renew plantations and
increase acreages due to the attractive
pricing offered for fruit.
Asking prices for concentrate from
Peru are around USD8500-8900/
tonne 50 brix FCA Europe, compared
with USD8300/tonne last month.
Offers for Peruvian NFC supplies are at
USD2550-2900/tonne single- strength
FCA Europe against USD2500-2800/
tonne last month.
stefan@fruitjuicefocus.com
www.juicemarket.info
JANUARY 2024
Vietnam
The situation in Vietnam is diverse
and price levels are varied depending
on the producer and the quality of
supplies. Most offers for concentrate
from Vietnam range between
USD5000-6200/tonne 50 brix FCA
Europe, compared with USD5900-
7000/tonne last month. However, there
are reports of supplies recently being
offered as low as USD5000/tonne.
Analysts suggest that there could be
a tendency for juice prices to increase
this year and next. They suggest that
some of the plantations are not in great
condition and that there has not been
extensive renewals of plantations.
This, they say, could be attributed to
the weaker economy in China. China
is usually a huge importer of fresh
passion fruit from Vietnam.
Fruit pricing is volatile and changing
every week, so some producers are
reportedly not offering concentrate
until fruit prices stabilise.
In related news, sea freights from
Asia have spiked again due to the
situation in the Suez Canal and Red
Sea. Traders say a 40ft container from
Vietnam to Europe is now costing
anything between USD5000-7000,
when it would usually cost USD1200-
1300. There is a shortage of containers
and a major delay in shipments.
www.fruitjuicefocus.com
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