Will Peace Destroy The Colombian Amazon

WILL PEACE
DESTROY THE
COLOMBIAN
AMAZON?
Territories, ‘Post-conflict’
and Deforestation
Luis Carlos Cote Rojas

September 2017
Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016

WILL PEACE DESTROY THE COLOMBIAN AMAZON?
Territories, ‘Post-conflict’ and Deforestation
A thesis presented to the

Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences
Potsdam Center for Policy and Management
University of Potsdam, Germany
In partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree

Master of Public Management
Global Public Policy Stream
Submitted by
Luis Carlos Cote Rojas
lc.cote87@gmail.com
Potsdam, September 5, 2017.
Supervisors
Dr. Markus Seyfried, 1st Supervisor
Dr. Charlotte Streck, 2nd Supervisor

Acknowledgements
I would like to thank my Supervisors, Dr. Markus Seyfried and Dr. Charlotte Streck, for
the valuable lessons learned, their confidence and willingness to supervise this thesis. I am also
grateful to the Potsdam Center for Policy and Management staff, for their support during my
studies at Potsdam University, my special gratitude goes to Stefanie Uhde and Laura Hecht.
Endless thanks goes out to Kelly Acuña, this thesis would not have been possible
without her unconditional assistance throughout all the research process. Her lovely
encouragement –particularly during the winter– was also determinant to reaching this goal.
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my “new” family here in Europe,
including my friends, classmates and colleagues, for all the fun and learning processes we
experienced the last year.
Also I thank Paola Galindo, Javier Revelo, Julián Barajas, Alex Riaño, Oscar Sampayo,
Andrés Sampayo, Juan Francisco Azuero, Gabriel Ortiz and Adrián Cantor for their
constructive conversations that helped me to enhance my understanding of the research
problem.
I would also like to thank Frances Seymour, Sergio Coronado, Camilo Torres and Iván
Hernández for their useful insights regarding the scope and focus of this research. I am grateful
to Gabriel Cote, Carolina Jiménez and Carlos Mahecha, for their fruitful comments to previous
versions of this manuscript.
Last but always first, I would like to thank my family, my parents: María and Julián, and
to my brothers: Julián and Daniel, for supporting me spiritually throughout the Atlantic Ocean.
Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 iii

Table of Contents
Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................... iii

Table of Contents .................................................................................................................. iv
List of Acronyms......................................................................................................................v
List of Figures, Boxes and Tables....................................................................................... vii
I. Introduction. Why and What Is the Research For? ...................................................... - 7 -

a. The importance of the Colombian Amazon...................................................................................... - 8 -
b. Research purpose: What is this research for? .................................................................................. - 10 -
c. Main question and the case of the Development Programmes with a Territorial-Based
Approach. .............................................................................................................................................. - 10 -
d. Organization of this manuscript ........................................................................................................ - 11 -
II. Territoriality, Armed Conflict, ‘Post-conflict’ and Deforestation: State of the Art. - 12 -
a. Territoriality and deforestation .......................................................................................................... - 12 -
b. Armed conflict and deforestation ...................................................................................................... - 14 -
c. ‘Post-conflict’ and deforestation ........................................................................................................ - 15 -
III. Analytical starting point and research design ......................................................... - 18 -
a. Understanding complexity: theory and praxis ................................................................................. - 18 -
b. Data, methods and research process ................................................................................................. - 19 -
IV. Dilemmas and transitions: Understanding deforestation within the post-agreement
scenario in Colombia ....................................................................................................... - 21 -
a. Legal environmental framework and commitment with deforestation goals ............................. - 21 -
b. Before the Final Agreement: armed conflict incidence and forest cover loss ............................ - 23 -
c. The post-agreement environmental paradox ................................................................................... - 30 -
The post-agreement as opportunity for the forests ...................................................... - 32 -
The post-agreement as challenge for the forests. ......................................................... - 34 -
The post-agreement as paradox for forests’ future ....................................................... - 40 -
V. Towards an environmental peace: The Case of the Development Programmes with
Territorial-Based Approach in the Colombian Amazon ............................................... - 44 -
a. PDETs and territoriality in the Amazon region .............................................................................. - 46 -
b. PDETs and the post-agreement transition in the Amazon region .............................................. - 47 -
c. PDETs and the deforestation in the Amazon region .................................................................... - 50 -
VI. Final thoughts and considerations............................................................................ - 54 -
VII. Bibliography .............................................................................................................. - 56 -
VIII. Appendixes .............................................................................................................. - 62 -
Appendix 1. Departments of Colombia ..................................................................................................... - 62 -
Appendix 2. Armed Conflict Incidence Index Variables......................................................................... - 63 -
Appendix 3. Armed Conflict Incidence Index and Relative Forest Cover Loss by Departments and
Categories 2002-2005; 2006-2009 and 2010-2013 .................................................................................... - 64 -
Declaration of Honour ..................................................................................................... - 67 -
Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 iv

List of Acronyms
ACII Armed Conflict Incidence Index

Alta Consejería Presidencial para el Postconflicto (High Presidential Agency for Post-
ACPP
Conflict)
AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use Sector
ANH Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos (National Hydrocarbons Agency)
ART Agencia de Ronovación del Territorio (Territorial Renewal Agency)
AUC Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia)
BACRIM Bandas Criminales (Criminal Bands)
BAU Business-as-Usual
CARs Corporaciones Autónomas Regionales (Regional Autonomous Corporations)
DNP Departamento Nacional de Planeación (National Planning Department)
Estrategia Colombiana de Desarrollo Bajo en Carbono (Colombian Strategy for Low
ECDBC
Carbon Development)
ECOMUN Economía Social del Común (Social Economy of the Commons)
ECOPETROL Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos (Colombian Oil Company)
Espacios Territoriales de Capacitación y Reincorporación (Territorial Areas for
ECTR
Capacity-building and Reincorporation)
EDA Early Deforestation Alerts
Estrategia Integral de Control a la Deforestación y Gestión de los Bosques en Colombia
EICDGB (Comprehensive Strategy for Deforestation Control and Forest Management
in Colombia)
ELN Ejército de Liberación Nacional (National Liberation Army)
ENREDD+ Estrategia Nacional REDD+ (National Strategy REDD+)
EPI Environmental Performance Index
Espacios Territoriales de Capacitación y Reincorporación (Territorial Areas for
ETCR
Capacity-building and Reincorporation)
Fuerza Alternativa Revolucionaria del Común (Alternative Revolutionary Force of
FARC
the Commons)
Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – Ejército del Pueblo (Revolutionary
FARC-EP
Armed Forces of Colombia—People's Army)
FREL Forest Reference Emission Level
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Green House Gases
GPI Global Peace Index
Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (Institute of Hydrology,
IDEAM
Meteorology and Environmental Studies)
IGAC Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi (Agustín Codazzi Geographic Institute)
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
FCP Fondo Colombia en Paz (Colombia in Peace Fund)
Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 v

Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible (Ministry of Environment and
MADS
Sustainable Development)
Mt CO2-eq Metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
NDC Nationally Determined Contribution
NGO Non-Governmental Organization
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Organización Nacional Indígena de Colombia (Colombia's National Indigenous
ONIC
Organization)
PA Protected Areas
Programas de Desarrollo con Enfoque Territorial (Development Programmes with a
PDETs
Territorial-Based Approach)
Política Nacional para la Gestión de la Biodiversidad y sus Servicios Ecosistémicos
PNGIBSE (National policy for the management of biodiversity and its ecosystem
services)
PNN Parques Nacionales Naturales de Colombia (National Natural Park)
Reducing Emission from Deforestation and forest Degradation plus
REDD+ conservation, sustainable management of forest, and enhancement of forest
carbon stocks
RFCL Relative Forest Cover Loss
R&D Research and Development
SINA Sistema Nacional Ambiental (National Environmental System)
Instituto Amazónico de Investigaciones Científicas (Amazonian Institute of Scientific
SINCHI
Research)
Sistema de monitoreo de bosques y carbono para Colombia (Colombian System of
SMBYC
Forests and Carbon Monitoring)
SNU Sistema de las Naciones Unidas en Colombia (United Nations system in Colombia)
UBN Unsatisfied Basic Needs
UNAL Universidad Nacional de Colombia (National University of Colombia)
UNDP The United Nations Development Programme
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNODC The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
Zonas Veredales Transitorias de Normalización (Transitional Local Zones for
ZVTN
Normalization)
ZRC Zonas de Reserva Campesina (Peasant Farmer Reserve Areas)
Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 vi

List of Figures, Boxes and Tables
Figure 1. The Colombian Amazon Forest. 2012 ................................................................... - 8 -

Figure 2. Land use in Colombia. ........................................................................................ - 14 -
Figure 3. Land-use conflict in Colombia ............................................................................ - 16 -
Figure 4. Chart of the National Environmental System (SINA). ........................................ - 22 -
Figure 5. Biomes of Colombia ........................................................................................... - 24 -
Figure 6. Armed Conflict Incidence Index and Relative Forest Cover Loss by Department.
2002-2005; 2006-2009 and 2010-2013. ................................................................ - 25 -
Figure 7. Armed Conflict Incidence vs. Relative Forest Cover Loss. 2002-2005 ................. - 26 -
Figure 10. Global Peace Index and Environmental Performance Index. 2016 .................... - 31 -
Figure 11. Mining applications in the Colombia Amazon region. 2015 ............................... - 37 -
Figure 12. Early Deforestation Alerts (EDA) 2017-first quarter, forest coverage, and
Development Programmes with a Territorial-Based Approach (PDETs) ............ - 41 -
Figure 13. PDETs in the Amazon Region. ......................................................................... - 45 -
Figure 14. Design of the PDETs ........................................................................................ - 47 -
Figure 15. Tropical forests’ goods, services, and development ............................................ - 48 -
Box 1. The Development Programmes with a Territorial-Based Approach (PDETs) .......... - 10 -

Box 1. Regional Autonomous Corporations........................................................................ - 21 -
Box 2. What is REDD+? .................................................................................................... - 23 -
Table 1. Development Programmes with a Territorial-Based Approach in the Colombian

Amazon ................................................................................................................ - 45 -
Table 2. Amazon region PDETs and their participation in Colombia’s Early Deforestation
Alerts. First quarter – 2017.................................................................................... - 50 -
Table 3. Historical drivers of deforestation in the Amazon region and post-agreement
challenges.............................................................................................................. - 51 -
Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 vii

I. Introduction. Why and What Is the Research For?
Environment is at the heart of post-conflict development in Colombia.

The country has a unique historic opportunity to promote sustainable livelihoods
and resilient territories in which nature provides the foundations for long-lasting peace and prosperity.
1
Leo Heileman. United Nations Environment Regional Director.
Last 25th of June, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People's Army

(FARC-EP) successfully laid down 7.132 weapons, thereby ending the armed conflict with the
Colombian government after 54 years of hostilities. The laying down of arms and the definitive
ceasefire and termination of hostilities were the result of the General Agreement for Ending
Conflict and Building a Stable and Long-Lasting Peace reached after almost five years of
negotiations in The Havana, Cuba.
After the legislative power endorsed the Final Agreement on November 30, 2016,
Colombia has been facing the so called ‘post-conflict’ setting. Nevertheless, instead of referring
to this transition as ‘post-conflict’, the concept of post-agreement will be used. This concept
recognizes that notwithstanding the FARC-EP’s end as an armed organization, the internal
armed conflict remains in several Colombian territories due the actions of the National
Liberation Army (ELN) –currently in peace talks with the government- and several paramilitary
groups as El Clan del Golfo, among others.2
The great paradox of the current post-agreement transition might be its implications for
the country's environment to the extent that the success or failure of addressing environmental
considerations during the Agreement implementation could lead either to peacebuilding
opportunities based on sustainable development, or to the country’s natural heritage
destruction. (SNU, 2014)
Consequently, the present research will argue that the Amazon natural heritage would be
destroyed unless significant environmental considerations are merged with the established
1
UNEP News centre. (2017, March 3). UN Environment will support environmental recovery and peacebuilding
for post-conflict development in Colombia. Retrieved from: http://www.unep.org/newscentre/un-environment-
will-support-environmental-recovery-and-peacebuilding-post-conflict-development
2
The Colombian Government refers to them as Organized Delinquency Groups, who include Los Rastrojos, La
Cordillera, Los Buitragueños, Los Botalones, Los Caqueteños, Los Costeños, Los Pachenca and the Clan Isaza (Álvarez et.al.,
2017). Other commonly used concept is Criminal Bands (BACRIM). Although, joint actions with the state armed
forces are not evident in all the cases, all those organizations resulted after the paramilitaries demobilization.

I. Introduction
socio-economic priorities during the post-agreement, in order to attain a sustainable territorial

development based on robust communities’ engagement, stable state presence and a better land
management model. Although the peacebuilding path, as well as the sustainable territorial
development, requires incremental structural changes at a national level, it will be suggested that
the Development Programmes with a Territorial-Based Approach (PDETs), as mechanisms of
the Final Agreement’s implementation, could lead to a potential environmental peace in the
Amazon’s prioritized municipalities.
a. The importance of the Colombian Amazon
The Amazon is the biggest tropical forest in the world embracing about 8 million km2
distributed among Bolivia (7,0%), Brazil (64,4%), Ecuador (1,6%), Guyana (2,1%), French
Guyana (0,8%), Surinam (1,9%), Peru (9,7%), Venezuela (5,9%) and Colombia (6,6%).
(Gutiérrez, Acosta, & Salazar, 2004). The Colombian Amazon covers an area of 483.074 km2,
which represents 42,3% of the country’s continental area. The Colombian Amazon forest
spread through nine departments, as follows: Amazonas (22.51%), Caquetá (18.64%), Guainía
(14.65%), Guaviare (11.01%). With lower participation rates are: Nariño (0.60%), Cauca
(1.02%), Putumayo (5.34%), Meta (6.09%) and Vichada (8.74%). (Salazar & Riaño, 2016)
Figure 1. The Colombian Amazon Forest. 2012
Source: SINCHI, 2016
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I. Introduction
Figure 1. presents the geographical location of the Colombian Amazon forest. The dark
green represents the forests areas, which in 2012 were 404.159,9 km2, representing the 83,6% of
the Colombian Amazon region. The red areas in Figure 1. indicate the transformed areas until
2012 (32.843,4 km2). Between 2012 and 2016, 5.346 km2 of forests were lost in the region, about
six times the Berlin area. Last year alone, 70.074 hectares (ha) of forest were deforested in the
Colombian Amazon, representing the 34% of the country’s deforestation. (IDEAM, 2017)
Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s estimations, Seymour and
Busch (2016), suggest that tropical forests hold the potential to contribute between 25 and 33%
to the near-term solution for climate change. Consequently, the endorsement of 2º C as an
upper limit of allowable global warming, agreed during the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015,
only could be reached if deforestation is halted and reversed. Forest clearing and degradation
represent about 15% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, more than all the cars, trains,
planes, ships, and trucks on earth. (Werf et al., 2009; Ricketts et al., 2010)
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for almost a
quarter of the global anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural
emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management (Smith, et.al. 2014, p. 816). In
Colombia, the AFOLU sector represents about 58% of the country’s GHG emissions.
Therefore, the country’s commitment to reduce its emissions by 20% with respect to the
projected Business-as-Usual Scenario (BAU) by 2030, can only be met if deforestation is halted.
Accordingly, the country’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (2015) states:
“Colombia reaffirms its commitment to reduce deforestation in the country and to preserve
important ecosystems such as the Amazon region, given its huge potential to contribute to the
stabilization of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere” (p. 9).
In terms of biodiversity, the Colombian Amazon is home to 381 aquatic ecosystems and
661 terrestrial ecosystems. About 88% of those are natural ecosystems. The other 12%
corresponds to semi-natural and transformed ecosystems. In this connection, it is crucial to
prevent the agricultural frontier’s expansion and stop increasing pasture lands, to conserve
current natural ecosystems and restore transformed ecosystems. (SINCHI & PNN, 2016). The
Amazon forest is also home of 62 indigenous communities, whom represents about 60% of
country’s native peoples. According to the Colombia's National Indigenous Organisation
(ONIC), 26 of these communities are formed by less than 500 members being in extreme risk
of disappearance, as well as their 17 native languages. (UNAL, 2017). Deforestation in the
region is a clear threat to these communities and their cultural heritage.
Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 -9-

I. Introduction
Finally, the Amazon forest is also relevant due the goods and services that provides,
which are often invisible to public planners because are harder to count in the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), however, they could offer economic incentives to forest communities such as
sustainable timber production, ecotourism and payments for ecosystem services (Seymour &
Busch, 2016). As it would be explained, on top of this, the Colombian Amazon forest could be
an essential aspect of peacebuilding and reconciliation during the post-agreement transition.
b. Research purpose: What is this research for?
The overall aim of this research is enhancing the understanding of the relationship
between the Colombian territories, post-agreement and deforestation, in order to determine to
what extent, the Colombian Amazon forest coverage could change during the post-agreement
period.
In doing so, the following specific objectives were set:
• Establish exploratory trends of the deforestation and armed conflict relationship

• Describe the main characteristics of the post-agreement environmental paradox
• Explore the case of the Development Programmes with a Territorial-Based
Approach in the Colombian Amazon region
c. Main question and the case of the Development Programmes with a Territorial-
Based Approach
From a critical perspective, problematizing the relationship between deforestation and

the post-agreement scenario at the territorial level raise several questions. In that sense, this
research is not framed as a concrete answer to a specific question. Nevertheless, the general
question that guides this study is: To what extent the post-agreement scenario could lead to the
destruction of the Colombian Amazon
Box 1. The Development Programmes with a
natural heritage? Territorial-Based Approach (PDETs)
Along with this question, this Within the framework of the Final Agreement's
research will trace the development of implementation and through Decree Law 893 of
May 28, 2017, the PDETs were created as
cleavages between the centre and the planning and management mechanisms in the
territories most affected by the armed conflict,
periphery, as well as the territorial aspect of poverty, illicit economies and institutional
peacebuilding. The study also takes into weakness. These subnational programs will be
carried out by the new Territorial Renewal
consideration a more prescriptive outcome Agency (ART) in 170 prioritized municipalities
and will be designed and implemented jointly by
related with the ongoing Development
the municipalities, communal action boards and
Programmes with a Territorial-Based communities for the integral transformation of
the rural areas in the next 10 years.
Source: ACPP, 2017
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I. Introduction
Approach in the Colombian Amazon as a policy opportunity to stop deforestation in their

jurisdictions.
d. Organization of this manuscript
By exploring the academic attention in Colombia to the research problem, Chapter II

provides the state of the art on deforestation and their relationships with territoriality, armed
conflicts and post-conflict transitions.
Chapter III describes the analytical starting point, the research design and the
procedures followed to collect and analyse data. This Chapter explores the linkages between
theory and praxis, enlightened from a critical perspective with practical vocation.
Chapter IV aims at enhancing the understanding of deforestation within the post-
agreement transition. After setting the environmental legal framework and the country’s
deforestation related goals, the linkages between armed conflict incidence and the Colombia’s
relative forest cover loss from 2002 to 2013 will be explored. Secondly, the main attributes of
the post-agreement environmental paradox are presented, thorough a description of the
intricacies of the post-agreement as opportunity, challenge and paradox.
Based on the previous findings, the Chapter V. provide a discussion on the potential
transition to an environmental peace within the Development Programmes with Territorial
Approach in the Colombian Amazon, as known, the PDET of the Caguán’s Basin and
Caquetá’s Foothills, the Macarena – Guaviare’s PDET and the PDET in the Putumayo
department.
Lastly, some final thoughts and considerations are summarized in the Chapter VI. The
Appendixes (Chapter VIII.) regarding the Colombian administrative division, data sets and
sources are presented after the Bibliography (Chapter VII.).

II. Territoriality, Armed Conflict, ‘Post-conflict’ and Deforestation:
State of the Art
Forests are often frontiers, and like all frontiers,

they are sites of dynamic social, ecological, political and economic changes.
[…] Forest have sometimes been part of the cause of conflict
(as in Myanmar and Sierra Leone) but more often victims of it.
3
Jeffrey A. McNeely.
More than five decades of armed conflict have been enough breeding ground for
profiler academic researches and approaches. Several varieties of trends such as the political
economy of the conflict, the subnational and local armed dynamics, and the history of armed
groups among others have been mixed with studies on the incidence of conflict on poverty,
institutions or democracy. Without reaching a consensus on their causes, nor their
consequences, it is fair to say that the social, economic and political affectations of the
Colombian internal armed conflict have been widely studied.
However, few attention has been dedicated to understanding how warfare can impact
the environment and even less studies assessed forest-biomass changes due to conflict
contexts (Castro-Nunez, Mertz, Buritica, Sosa, & Lee, 2017; Ordway, 2015). Moreover, post-
conflict countries often guide their priorities toward restoration of the socioeconomic
conditions and tend to relegate sustainability objectives to the background (Suarez, Árias-
Arévalo, & Martínez-Mera, 2017). Here after, deforestation and their interactions with: a.)
territoriality, b.) armed conflict and c.) ‘post-conflict’ are presented according to the attention
that the scholars have given to the problem in Colombia.
a. Territoriality and deforestation
The linkages between territorial processes and deforestation in the country could be
analysed from different perspectives: from the legal and constitutional forms of land
management, to the illegal pressures in rural areas and the enlargement of the agricultural
frontier among others.
Some studies analyse the deforestation process and the role of natural protected areas
in protecting national forests (Armenteras, Rodríguez, & Retana, 2009). Besides the national
3
McNeely, J. A. (2003). Conserving forest biodiversity in times of violent conflict. Oryx, 37(2), 142-152.

II. State of the art
protected areas as the National Natural Parks (PNN), regional natural protected areas and
Civil Society Nature Reserves are currently covering roughly 160.000 km2. The Colombian
government commitment is to increases at least 25.000 km2 of protected areas by 2019.
Moreover, within the Colombian territory there are about 323.000 km2 of indigenous
‘resguardos’ and 56.000 km2 of black communities’ territories. Although those constitutional
figures were initially conceived as cultural and ethnic protection zones, they also play a role of
environmental protection (Bonilla & Higuera, 2016).4
In general terms, and as in other countries, researchers suggest that protected areas
(PAs) tend to have less deforestation rates than their surroundings (Butsic, Baumann,
Shortland, Walker, & Kuemmerle, 2015; Ricketts et al., 2010). In Colombia, evidence shows
that the PAs and resguardos’ size effect a positive impact as barriers against deforestation.
(Armenteras et. al., 2009).
However, PAs are less effective in protecting forest when the state presence is limited
(Bonilla & Higuera, 2016). In the same way, because PAs are often understaffed,
underfunded, and constantly face external threats, their coverage expanding should be
complemented by appropriate management of existing PAs (Saout et al., 2013).
One of the main external threats to PAs is coca cultivation. Their pressure exceeds
the PAs jurisdictions. Most of the world’s coca crops are located in the Amazonian forests of
Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia (Dávalos, Sanchez, & Armenteras, 2016). Several studies explore
the relationship between illicit crops economy and deforestation, which appears to be directly
proportional. (Chadid, Dávalos, Molina, & Armenteras, 2015; Rocha & Martinez, 2001;
Andrade, 2004).
Nevertheless, their direct effect over the country’s total deforestation is lower than
other drivers such as cattle ranching and the enlargement of the agricultural frontier (GIZ,
2017; Armenteras & Eraso, 2014; McAlpine, Etter, Fearnside, Seabrook, & Laurance, 2009;
Etter, McAlpine, Wilson, Phinn, & Possingham, 2006). Figure 2. shows cattle grazing in
introduced and natural pastures; introduced pastures largely correspond with deforested areas
(McAlpine et.al., 2009).
4
The indigenous resguardos are a collective property title of the land, as a legal form that protects both the
territory and their cultural and political autonomy (Hammen, 2003)

Figure 2. Land use in Colombia.

b. Armed conflict and
deforestation
Within the framework of the

explanatory power of economic
variables as causes of civil wars, in
which ‘greed’ is more relevant than
‘grievance’ (Collier & Hoeffler, 2004),
the political motivations of guerrilla
organizations are neglected, and the
illicit crops economy or the drug
trafficking dynamics, stand as the main
causes of Colombian armed conflict.
Though, the coca colonization
and their expansion in the Amazon
region, particularly in Caquetá and
Putumayo departments, should be
understood as a very complex process
Source: McAlpine, et.al. 2009
related with agricultural problems, the
absence of the state and the inequitable access to land. (Carrizosa, Leyva, & Mantilla, 1981;
Jaramillo, Mora, & Cubides, 1986; Vázquez, 2009).
Accordingly, the environmental impacts of armed conflict in the region cannot be
explained as the correlation of FARC-EP’s presence and the deforestation caused by illicit
crops in a particular time (Trujillo, 2014). Based on a spatial and historical analysis, Ospina
(2009) founds that during the period of 1974 to 2006 the armed conflict diminished the Alto
Caquetá’s forests destruction mainly because the forced internal displacement of the
population significantly reduced the pressure on forests. Conversely, between 1966 and 1974,
a period characterized by low armed conflict but high processes of rural settlements, forest’s
destruction was greater mainly by colonizing outposts and productive activities, which destroy
nearly 6% of the region’s forests.
In the same way, some authors had highlighted that the Colombian conflict lead in
some cases to the active exclusion of extraction and farming activities from certain
geographic areas, also known as ‘gunpoint conservation’ (Álvarez, 2003; Dávalos, 2001).

Furthermore, in some regions, like the Amazon ‘piedemonte’ the FARC-EP

established and enforced rules related with land-use and the agricultural frontier expansion
done by the ‘guerrilla justice’ (Espinosa Menéndez, 2016)
On the other hand, the Colombian National Planning Department states that during
the last 25 years, at least 3 million ha have been deforested in conflict areas –an area
equivalent to the size of Belgium-, and that at least 75% of the deforestation is concentrated
in conflict zones where deforestation rates (6.5 ha deforested per 1,000 ha of forest) are three
times higher than in other municipalities (DNP, 2016).
Within this aggregate, the paramilitary violence is also considered. Paramilitary groups
are responsible for the majority of internal forced displacements and are commonly
associated with land-grabbing and extractive activities both, legal and illegal (Bello, 2003;
Medina, 2005). Ferguson, Romero and Vargas (2014) evidenced that paramilitary attacks are
correlated with forced displacement and the successive increase of coca cultivation, requests
for extractive mining titles and growing oil-palm, all of them implying an increase on
deforestation.
Therefore, the relationship between armed conflict and deforestation is far to be a
simple causality of armed presence and deforestation rates. Its complexity is greater due the
fact that in areas extensively controlled by armed groups, less violent actions are more
probable than in war dispute zones (Kalyvas, 2006).
While it is clear that the Colombian armed conflict affects forest cover among the
country, the form of the affectations as well as the degree of the changes significantly varies
depending on the territories and the armed actors involved. As Baumann & Kuemmerle
(2016) suggest, warfare can impact in major ways land systems, but with diverse and not
unidirectional effects. Moreover, although these effects are often immediate, it can initiate
long-lasting land-use legacies.
c. ‘Post-conflict’ and deforestation
During the previous failed peace negotiations with the FARC-EP in the early 2000’s,
some authors had already raised the challenges of potential peace for the country’s forests. As
necessary actions in a post-conflict scenario were identified among others: the capacity of
authorities to control all territories in dispute, the land redistribution, and the provision of
feasible economic alternatives to illicit crop growers (Álvarez, 2001).

Due the successful progress of the FARC-EP’s peace process, academic interest in
exploring the implications and challenges of post-conflict has been recently aroused.5
Some authors pointed out that the problem of deforestation is closely related to land-
use conflicts, which according to the Agustín Codazzi Geographic Institute (IGAC) (2012)
represent about 28% of the Colombian territory. Figure 3. shows over-exploited areas in red,
under-exploited areas in green, and the areas with suitable uses according to its agro
ecological characteristics in white. The greatest over-exploitation of land is currently the used
for pasture: while only 13% of the total agricultural area appears to be suitable –about 15
million ha–, more than 35 million ha are used in livestock.
The researchers call for a
Figure 3. Land-use conflict in Colombia
reconversion of over-exploited areas
to their suitable use and for an
acceleration of the restitution of lands
processes, the guarantee of the return
to the territories of the armed-conflict
victims and for the development of
‘sustainable living projects’ in order to
halt deforestation and the increase of
land-use conflicts. (Rodríguez,
Rodríguez & Durán, 2017)
From the analysis of post-
conflict scenarios in seven countries,
Suarez, Árias-Arévalo, and Martínez-
Mera, (2017) provide keen insights for
the discussion on rural environmental
sustainability including that
deforestation and land use conflicts Source: IGAC, 2012.
persist during post-conflict
transitions, and that natural resource extraction tends to be intensified during these periods.
In the same way, Morales (2017) highlighted that former conflict zones, which are
also environmentally sensitive areas, will be object of new settlements, infrastructure
developments and increases of legal industries like agriculture, cattle ranching, mining and oil
5
Scholars use the concept of post-conflict more often than post-agreement. Nevertheless, as stated before the
post-agreement concept will be use along this research in the sense that the current scenario is far to be a post-
conflict one.

exploitation. Thus, if economic development plans are not ‘carefully crafted’, post-conflict
could lead to increased deforestation and water shortages. (p. 7)
However, forest biodiversity can be an asset during post-conflict to investing in
biodiversity-friendly productive and extractive activities. Some researchers recently argued
that “[a]n inclusive development that provides incentives for small, medium and large holders
to plant trees, manage forest stands and conserve forest fragments has the potential to secure
the sustainable provision of ecosystem services […] it will also help consolidate peace”
(Baptiste et al., 2017, p. 2).
Similarly, Castro-Nunez, Mertz and Sosa (2017) pointed out that the conflict affected
municipalities store more carbon than the more peaceful regions, the conflict affected forest
used to be at lower risk of deforestation. They also suggest geographical overlaps between
priority areas for peacebuilding and for forest carbon-storage calling to beneficial interactions
likely framed within the REDD+ safewards adopted by the UNFCCC. In the same vein,
Gonzalez-Salazar, Venturini, Poganietz, Finkenrath and Leal (2017), explore the combination
of sustainable bioenergy with improved land use strategies during post-conflict scenarios. In
the best-case scenario, they estimate emission’ reductions associated with land use and land
use change of 605 Mt CO2-eq by 2030. Here, avoiding deforestation is the main contributor
to the estimates of the sector.

III. Analytical starting point and research design
Die Philosophen haben die Welt nur verschieden interpretiert;

es kommt drauf an, sie zu verändern.
6
Karl Marx, 1845.
a. Understanding complexity: theory and praxis
Following the interpretive turn in the social sciences, researchers like Dryzek (1982)
criticise the objective measures and universal principles’ aspirations of the policy scholars
mainly interested on technical knowledge. They also stand out how policies are socially
constructed and highly contextual.
Embedded in this school of thought, Lejano and Leong (2012), elaborates on policy
analysis based on a hermeneutic approach. Their attempt to provide narrative interpretations
as methodological guidelines to understand the multiple and complex meanings in a specific
policy situation will be taken into account during this research.
From the praxis perspective, a more precise analytical framework would be adopted
considering Holling’s (2001) attempt to merge internal factors and external influences in
order to determine systemic sustainability. From this point of view, the process of
understanding complex systems, particularly economic, ecological, and social systems, could
be summarized as a framework that comprises the following criteria:
• Be “as simple as possible but no simpler” than is required for understanding and
communication.
• Be dynamic and prescriptive, not static and descriptive. Monitoring of the present and past is
static unless it connects to policies and actions and to the evaluation of different futures.
• Embrace uncertainty and unpredictability. Surprise and structural change are inevitable in
systems of people and nature. (p. 391)
Hence, this research has a twofold nature, on the one hand, is embed in a broad
critical perspective that aims to understand the nature of public policies and disputes
regarding forests’ conservation and degradation in the Colombian Amazon, and on the other
hand, has a prescriptive vocation that aims at exploring the Development Programmes with a
Territorial-Based Approach and their jurisdictions in order to formulate policy
recommendations for moving forward to an environmental peace within the territories.
6
11th thesis on Feuerbach.

b. Data, methods and research process
Base on the above analytical framework, and considering the guiding research
question, as known: To what extent the post-agreement scenario could lead to the destruction
of the Colombian Amazon natural heritage, the overall research process is described below
following the established research objectives.
In order to contribute to enhancing the understanding of the relationship between
deforestation, post-agreement and the Colombian territorialities, in the first place, the
linkages between armed conflict incidence and forest cover loss will be explored. The armed
conflict will be operationalized as the Armed Conflict Incidence Index (ACII) developed by
the Colombian National Planning Department, primarily because the ACII was used to
prioritize the most conflict-affected municipalities during the post-agreement. (For detailed
information see Appendix 2. and Appendix 3.)
The forest cover loss departmental variable was estimated based on an IDEAM
baseline for the 2000 year (Cabrera et.al. 2011), and subsequent cover changes data from the
Hansen et.al (2013) dataset provided by Global Forest Watch. With this data, relatively yearly
cover changes were calculated for each department between 2002 and 2013 (See Appendix
3.). Bearing in mind the limitations of the data sets, for comparison purposes three periods of
time were established based on data availability and Presidential transitions: 2002-2005; 2006-
2009 and 2010-2013.7
The forest cover loss is presented as percentage of the total forest cover annually by
department. This is a different approach because deforestation is commonly presented as
absolute values, but in this case, absolute values are not suitable for showing regional
differences and historical trends, mainly because if showed as absolute values, the
deforestation drivers in regions with small forest participation would be underestimated.
Subsequently, the calculated data is visualized in six maps presented and analysed with
a national perspective, emphasizing the Amazon region. Besides, the relationship between the
Armed Conflict Incidence Index and Relative Forest Cover loss variables will be also
presented using scatter plots for the different time periods.
In order to define the main characteristics of the post-agreement environmental
paradox, a global perspective of the relationship between environment and peace would be
explored. In doing so, the ethereal peace concept is operationalized as the Global Peace
7
The limitations include the low level of precision, the difficulties in terms of datasets compatibility, the millions
of hectares without information, and that the forest cover loss is not always deforestation.

Index; the environmental management capacity is operationalized as the Environmental

Performance Index. Both indexes have 180 observations in the year 2016. With these data, a
Pearson correlation would be calculated. Even though correlation is not causation, it can be
helpful for predicting the overall peace-environment relationship.
Being aware of the complexity of the environmental paradox and the post-agreement
scenario, different debates and disputes would be interpreted based on primary and secondary
sources. Thus, qualitative instruments such as press and documentary reviews, and personal
communications with researchers, policy stakeholders, and environmental leaders, would
derive in a narrative analysis of the stated research problems.
Going further from a descriptive narrative, to contributing to the post-agreement
scenario comprehension at the territorial level, the study case of the Development Programs
with a Territorial-Based Approach will be presented based on the previous findings, in order
to formulate strategic recommendations focused on policy opportunities for an
environmental peace in those territories.

IV. Dilemmas and transitions: Understanding deforestation within
the post-agreement scenario in Colombia
The concept of “green growth” is part of our economic development model

and has been mainstreamed into all sectors of the economy.
We are convinced that growth and environmental sustainability are perfectly compatible.
8
Juan Manuel Santos. President of Colombia. 2016.
The crisis [of the capitalist social order] is socioenvironmental

insofar the social order is based on a relationship of destruction against nature
by compromising sources of life, and promoting economies
of waste and scrap throughout exacerbated consumption.
9
FARC-EP. 2017.
Following the research process described before, this Chapter aims at enhancing the
understanding of deforestation within the post-agreement transition. Therefore, after
contextualizing the legal framework and the country’s deforestation goals, exploratory trends
of forest cover loss and armed conflict will be established. Finally, the main characteristics of
the post-agreement environmental paradox would be defined.
a. Legal environmental framework and commitment with deforestation goals
Box 2. Regional Autonomous Corporations Following the environmental

principles of the 1991 Colombian
The CARs are the main decentralised
environmental management authorities at the Constitution, the Law 99 of 1993 creates the
regional level, although territorial entities also
play a role. National Environmental System (SINA).
The SINA (Figure 4.) is confirmed by the
In the Colombian Amazon jurisdiction, four
CARs (CORDESPA, CDA, Ministry of Environment and Sustainable
CORPOAMAZONIA and
CORMACARENA) are responsible for all the Development, the Autonomous Regional
environmental management, including Corporations (Box 1.), the Territorial
managing forests and granting and enforcing
environmental licenses. Entities, the Research Institutes, the
Source: Adapted from www.theredddesk.org university sector among other institutions.
8
Peace in Colombia is also peace for the world. In: UNDP. (2016). Human Development Report. Human
Development for Everyone.
9
Self-translation. Tesis preparatorias del congreso fundacional del partido de las FARC-EP. March, 2017. p. 6.

IV. Dilemmas and transitions
Together they constitute the National Environmental Council, “whose aim is to ensure the
inter-sectorial coordination in the public ambit of policies, plans and programs for the field of
the environment and renewable natural resources and advise the national government on the
formulation of environmental policies”. (PNGIBSE, 2012)
Figure 4. Chart of the National Environmental System (SINA).
Source: PNGIBSE, 2012
The current National Development Plan (2014-2018) established several goals

regarding deforestation, including the deforestation reduction to 90.000 ha per year and zero
net deforestation in the Amazon by 2020. It also called for the formulation of a Colombian
Strategy for Low Carbon Development (ECDBC) and the National Strategy for Reducing
Emissions from Deforestation (ENREDD+).

More precisely, nowadays the Box 3. What is REDD+?

Ministry of Environment and Reducing Emission from Deforestation and forest
Sustainable Development is Degradation plus conservation, sustainable
management of forest, and enhancement of forest
formulating the Comprehensive carbon stocks (REDD+) is the international
framework agreed on for including forests in strategies
Strategy for Deforestation Control to reduce the emissions that causes climate change.
and Forest Management in Colombia Through REDD+, industrialized countries can
provide financial incentives to developing countries
(EICDGB), which constitutes the for reducing forest-based emissions and enhancing the
carbon capture and storage functions of forest.
Action Plan of the National Policy to
Source: Seymour & Busch, 2016, p. 10.
Fight against Deforestation, and aims
at:
Reduce substantially the deforestation and degradation of forests and promote their
conservation and sustainable management, with the development and articulation of
policies, measures and actions, technical and institutional coordination, linking the
productive sector, ethnic communities, local and civil society, under an integrated
and sustainable rural development approach, recognizing the importance and
ecosystem services associated with forests (MADS, 2017)
At a global level, the country committed to reduce emissions caused by deforestation

in 32,4 Mt CO2-eq below the BAU scenario by 2030 in the context of its NDC. Meanwhile,
within the New York Declaration on Forests, the goal of zero net deforestation by 2030 was
set, as well as the reduction of half deforestation by 2020.
b. Before the Final Agreement: armed conflict incidence and forest cover loss
In 2014, the Colombian government presented its first Forest Reference Emission
Level (FREL), under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). According to the submission, Colombia has five major biomes, large and
uniform environments of the geo-biosphere, which correspond to a homogeneous area in
biophysical terms. (MADS & IDEAM, 2014, p. 7)
Figure 5. shows the five biomes, as known: Amazon (1), Andes (2), Caribbean (3),
Orinoco (3) and Pacific (5). These divisions are used to analyse the forest cover trends and
the armed conflict incidence presented in Figure 6. Due the Colombian political and
administrative division does not follow the biophysical division (see Appendix 1.), the data of
cover loss rates and Armed Conflict Incidence Index is presented by departments during
three periods: 2002-2005; 2006-2009 and 2010-2013.
In terms of conflict incidence, Caquetá, Guaviare and Putumayo, in the Amazon
biome, have very high incidence rates during the three periods. The same applies to Meta

department, located between the Amazon and Orinoco biomes. In the Orinoco biome,
Arauca department also has a very high incidence persistence.
On the other hand, Guainía and
Figure 5. Biomes of Colombia
Amazonas departments in the Amazon
biome have a low armed conflict
incidence across the three periods of
3 analysis. Therefore, the conflict incidence

in the Colombian Amazon biome shows
great disparities. Although the region is
home of all the most conflict-affected
4 departments excepting Arauca, it hosts at
5
2 the same time half of the less conflict-
affected departments.
Concerning the relative cover
loss, - the percentage of cover loss by
1
department with regards to the complete
forest coverage at the end of the previous
year- Cordoba, Sucre, Cesar, Atlántico
and Guajira were the five departments
Source: MADS - IDEAM, 2014 with a very high relative cover loss during
the three periods; all of them are located
in the Caribbean biome, which consequently is the more transformed one. Regarding the low
relative cover loss, Amazonas, Vaupés and Guainía in the Amazon biome, Vichada located in
the middle of the Amazon and Orinoco biomes, and Chocó in the Pacific biome, have low
relative cover loss rates during the three analysed periods.
Within the Amazon biome, Putumayo, Caquetá and Meta departments, all of them
located in the agricultural frontier have had low-medium and medium cover loss rates.
Guaviare used to have low rates but for the last period it has a low-medium rate. However,
the Amazon biome -together with the Pacific biome- was the relatively less transformed
region during the study periods.

Figure 6. Armed Conflict Incidence Index and Relative Forest Cover Loss by Department. 2002-
2005; 2006-2009 and 2010-2013.
Armed Conflict Incidence Index*
2002-2005 2006-2009 2010-2013
Low Medium-low Medium High Very High
Relative Forest Cover Loss**

2002-2005 2006-2009 2010-2013
Low Medium-low Medium High Very High

*
Low: < -0.5 Std. Dev; Medium-low: [-0.5 , 0] Std. Dev; Medium: [0 , 0.5] Std. Dev; High: [0.50 , 1.5] Std. Dev;
Very High: ³ 1.5 Std. Dev.
**
Low: 1st quintile [<20%]; Medium-low: 2nd quintile [20 - 40%]; Medium: 3rd quintile [40 – 60%]; High: 4th
quintile [60 – 80%]; Very High: 5th quintile [> 80%]
Source: Self-constructed based on i). Armed Conflict Incidence Index: National Planning Department ii).
Relative Forest Cover Loss: Cabrera et.al. 2011 and www.globalforestwatch.org.

As Morales (2017) pointed out, in Colombia the war has determined how land has
been defined, occupied, and utilized. However, as mentioned before, the effects are diverse
and not unidirectional (Baumann & Kuemmerle, 2016). While it is true that forest losses
occurred among all territorialities, some regions transformed their forest in a faster and
persistent way. The analysis shows that greater transformations occurred in the Caribbean
and Andes regions, although those regions are relatively more peaceful than their
counterparts.
Consequently, the cover changes cannot be directly related with the armed conflict
incidence, but a relationship can be established for some of the departments in a period of
time (Figure. 7, Figure. 8. and Figure. 9). Hereafter, the correlations for each period would be
analysed.
Figure 7. Armed Conflict Incidence vs Relative Forest Cover Loss. 2002-2005
18,00%
Atlántico
16,00% Very High ACII -
Cesar Very High RFCL
14,00%
Relative Forest Cover Loss
12,00%
10,00%
8,00%
6,00%
4,00% Arauca
Casanare
Meta
2,00%
Caquetá
0,00%
0,0000 0,0100 0,0200 0,0300 0,0400 0,0500 0,0600 0,0700 0,0800 0,0900 0,1000
Armed Conflict Incidence Index
During the period 2002-2005 (Figure 7.), the former President Alvaro Uribe started
his ‘Democratic Security Policy’ that sought military victory over guerrilla organizations while
negotiating with paramilitary groups. The later began with the Agreement of Santa Fe de
Ralito signed in July 15, 2003. During the next three years of the subsequent demobilizing

process, 34 alleged fronts of the United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC), summing
31.671 ex-combatants, hand over their weapons.10
For these period, the Pearson correlation coefficient is -0.0709 but not statistically
significant. As Figure 7. shows, very high forest cover loss is associated with a widely range of
Armed Conflict Incidence Index. Indeed, it is associated with all established categories except
for a very high conflict incidence, represented by the up-right quarter the figure. Although
13% of the departments exhibits low forest cover change and low armed conflict incidence,
the correlation between both variables is not clear.
Arauca, Meta and Caquetá Departments had the major conflict incidence for this
period, Casanare was also classified as very high affected department. Thus, the Orinoco
region was the most affected by armed conflict. Within the period, Arauca forest cover was
transformed about 4,74%, meaning a high rate of cover loss. Meta with 2,7% and Casanare
with 3,12% of transformed areas had medium cover loss rates and Caquetá (1,44%) a
medium-low rate. With a low incidence of armed conflict, the most transformed department
was Atlántico (16,46%), followed by Cesar with 15,28% transformed area and high incidence
of armed conflict. The year average of cover loss for this period was about 190.242 ha with
an ACII mean of 0,028 this was the most contentious period analysed.
Along the next period (2006-2009), the very high relative forest cover loss category is
associated with low and medium-low armed conflict incidences. On the other hand, the low
relative forest cover loss is related with all the armed conflict incidence categories except for
the high incidence one, as Figures 6. and 8. shows. For this period, 13% of departments had
very high forest change and low ACII. The Pearson correlation coefficient for this period is -
0,292361518 being again negative but not statistically significant. The following Figure. 8.
shows the departments’ distribution for this period:
10
Several concerns were raised regarding the total of combatants, false demobilizations were denounced
claiming the inclusion of armed drug trafficking organizations as paramilitary structures. (Verdad abierta, n.d.)

40,00%
Atlántico
35,00%
Very High ACII -
Very High RFCL
30,00%
25,00%
20,00% Cesar
15,00%
La Guajira
10,00%
5,00% Arauca
Caquetá Guaviare
0,00% Putumayo
0 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05 0,06 0,07 0,08
Along this second period (2006-2009) Guaviare, Arauca, Putumayo and Caquetá were
the departments mostly affected by armed conflict. The Caribbean biome was the most
transformed one, particularly Atlántico (39,17%), Cesar (19,42%) and La Guajira (12,27%)
departments. Conversely, the conflict incidence in Atlántico was low, and in Cesar and La
Guajira low-medium. The country’s cover loss average per year for this period was about
234.650 ha, the highest among the three periods. Nevertheless, the ACII mean was 0,017
representing a decrease in comparison with the previous period.
During the last period (2010-2013), the government of Juan Manuel Santos initiated
on August 2010. The current President distanced himself from his predecessor Alvaro Uribe
after recognizing the belligerent character of guerrilla organizations. The search for a
negotiated solution to the armed conflict begins officially in 2012. However, the premise
adopted was negotiating in the midst of the armed conflict. Hence, an intensification of
armed conflict arises mainly in the south of the country, in the northern Amazon biome and
in the southern Pacific biome (Nariño and Cauca Departments). Nevertheless, with an ACII

mean of 0,011 this was the period of less armed conflict incidence. Figure 9. shows the
distribution of departments according to the established variables for the period 2010 – 2013.
25,00%
Atlántico
20,00% Very High ACII -

Very High RFCL
15,00%
Cesar
Sucre
10,00%
5,00%
0,00%
0 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05
Although the relative cover loss decreases in the Caribbean biome, the region remains
the most transformed area. Atlántico (23,26%), Cesar (14,19%) and Sucre (13,94) were the
most relatively transformed departments, being three of the five Departments with less forest
cover by the end of the analysis. All of them were ranked as low armed conflict incidence for
this period. While the relative cover loss increases in the Andes and Amazon biomes, the
country’s average of cover loss per year was reduced to 190.769 ha.
During the last period of the analysis, as in the previous one, very high forest cover
loss rates are associated with low and medium-low armed conflict categories. In fact, 13% of
departments had very high forest change and medium-low ACII. On the other hand, the low
relative forest cover loss category is related with low, medium-low and high armed conflict
incidence categories. 13% of departments evidenced medium-low forest cover change and
very high conflict incidence. The Pearson correlation coefficient for the last period is -
0,330756121 being the only one statistically significant, but only at 10%. All in all, the armed
conflict seems to diminish forest transformation in some regions, as the 'gunpoint
conservation' approach states.

Besides, the previous analysis is consistent with former historical trends of annual
forest cover loss rates at the national level for previous decades. González, et.al. (2011) also
found that the highest rates were presented in the Caribbean and Andean regions, and the
lowest in the Amazon and Pacific regions during the period of 1990-2010. The consolidation
of the trends highlights the progressive destruction of forest in the Caribbean and Andean
biomes. This might enhance legal and illegal pressures to other forests of other biomes
including the Amazon region.
To sum up, the relationship between relative cover loss and the incidence of armed
conflict is negative but not significant at the national level for the first two analysed periods.
However, this negative correlation is significant for the last one period. Even further, in the
sense that all the correlations were negative and for the last period was statistically significant,
two corollaries could be derived: i.) the need to explore the forest cover transformation in a
broader sense and not only by its association with armed conflict or illegal activities, and ii.) as
long as deforestation is not only related with armed conflict, a post-conflict transition is not a
guarantee to halt deforestation; the post-agreement could be even a risk. In this way, the
generalized statement from the past 25 years, that the deforestation was concentrated mainly
in armed conflict regions should be re-examine with more detail. Accordingly, the analysis
will be deepened in the following sections.
c. The post-agreement environmental paradox
The great paradox of post-conflict and peacebuilding [in Colombia]

might be their implications for the country's environment.11
Before defining the main characteristics of the post-agreement environmental

paradox, it is assumed that peaceful societies tend to have better environmental outcomes. In
that sense, a transition to peace in Colombia could lead to a better environmental
performance. From a global perspective, the relationship between environment and peace is
presented in Figure 10. The scatter plot presents the relationship between the Global Peace
11
Self-translation. “Consideraciones ambientales para la construcción de una paz territorial estable, duradera y sostenible en
Colombia” (SNU, 2014, p. 8).

Index (GPI) and the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) for 180 observations in the
year 2016.12
Figure 10. Global Peace Index and Environmental Performance Index. 2016
3,5
Somalia
3
Global Peace Index
Colombia
2,5
1,5
Iceland
1
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Environmental Performance Index
Source: Self-constructed based on: i). Environmental Performance Index: Yale University (2017), in:
http://epi.yale.edu. ii). Global Peace Index: Institute for Economics and Peace (2017), in:
http://economicsandpeace.org
Inquiring about the associations between the two continuous variables GPI and EPI,
it is concluded that there is a significant correlation between them. The founded Pearson
correlation is -0,4194. This number denotes a negative linear correlation that is statistically
significant. In other words, those countries that exhibit lower peace levels (express by a
higher GPI), also exhibits a lower environmental performance. Meanwhile, those countries
with higher peace levels (GPI close to zero) have a better Environmental Performance Index.
Even thought, correlation is not causation, this is helpful for predicting the overall
peace-environment relationship during the post-agreement transition. This is particularly
relevant for the Colombian case in the sense that about 80% of the 187 most conflict affected
municipalities according to the ACII, “lack basic information needed to determine land
ownership, land use, and potential pathways to environmentally sustainable development.”
(Morales, 2017). Hence, as a starting point, one can suggest that the Final Agreement’s
12
The Global Peace Index (GPI) is produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). The index encompasses 23
quantitative and qualitative indicators divided in three domains of peacefulness: i) Ongoing domestic and international
conflict; ii) Society safety and security and; iii) Militarisation. (Institute for Economics & Peace, 2016)
The Environmental Performance Index (EPI), produced by Yale University, is constructed aggregating 20 indicators which
measure national-level environmental data. The 20 indicators are combined in two objectives: i) Environmental health and; ii)
Ecosystem vitality. (Yale University, 2017)

implementation is a window of opportunity to improve Colombia’s environmental

performance, and in the same way, to consolidate policies and strategies in order to halt
deforestation.
Thereupon, based on the Agreement implementation and the new social and
economic configuration, the post-agreement scenario would be analysed as an opportunity, as
a challenge, and as a paradox.
The post-agreement as opportunity for the forests
The Final Agreement claimed in its preamble to consider:

that the new vision of a peaceful Colombia will lead to a sustainable society, united in
diversity, founded not only on the worship of human rights but on mutual tolerance, on
the environmental protection, on respect for nature, its renewable and non-renewable
resources and its biodiversity (Final Agreement, 2016, p. 4. [Self-translation])
Besides, regarding the economic reintegration of FARC-EP members, the Agreement

contemplates especial attention to their participation in programs and projects for
environmental protection.
Although, explicit environmental considerations were not included in the
negotiation’s agenda, along the Agreement’s implementation potential environmental
concerns could be formulated during the establishment of: a.) the comprehensive rural
reform and b.) the solution to the problem of illicit drugs items, and their concrete Plans and
Programmes.13 The Final Agreement contains 12 National Plans for the development of the
rural reform and a National Comprehensive Plan for the Substitution of Crops Used for Illicit
Purposes.14
With regard to the latter, many aspects need to be considered during the post-conflict
scenario. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) suggests in its latest
report an increase of 52% in the territories affected by coca cultivation -from 96.000 ha of
illicit crops in 2015 to 146.000 ha in 2016-. The Illicit Crops Substitution Plan aims to replace
50.000 ha by the end of 2017. According to FARC-EP commander Pastor Alape, the former
13
Besides these items, the Final Agreement embraces four more items, as known: political participation, an
agreement regarding the victims of the conflict, the end of the armed conflict, and an item which encompasses
the Agreement’s implementation and verification mechanisms.
14
Those national Plans are: Plan for the Massive Legalization of Small and Medium Rural Property, National
Plan for Tertiary Roads, National Plan for Irrigation and Drainage, National Plan for Rural Electrification,
National Plan for Rural Connectivity, National Plan for Rural Health, Special Rural Health Plan, National Plan
for the Construction and Improvement of Rural Housing, National Plan for Promoting the Solidarity-based
Economy and the Rural Cooperatives, National Comprehensive Plan for Technical and Technological
Assistance and Promotion of Research, Plan for the Income Generation of the Peasant, Family and
Community-based Economies, National Plan for Promoting the Products Commercialization of the Peasant,
Family and Community-based Economy, and the Progressive plan for social protection and guarantee of the
rights of rural workers.

guerrilla "will have the responsibility to accompany and directly promote the program’s arrival
to the most affected territories, in order to socialize and strengthen their commitment to the
final solution to the problem of illicit drugs." (Muñoz, F. quoted in El Tiempo, 2017a. [Self-
translation])
Accordingly, the substitution of crops used for illicit purposes –and with that, the
finish of deforestation associated to coca cultivation– is not only necessary, it is also an
opportunity for the inclusion of sustainable development alternatives that foster the
adaptation and mitigation of climate change in the rural areas which are the mostly affected
from the severe temperature potential changes. In doing so, the fact that the former rebels are
now one of the stakeholders interested in the consolidation of alternatives to the coca
economy is not a trivial matter. When questioned in that regard, Rafael Pardo, High
Counsellor for Post-conflict, Human Rights and Security, considers this as a big window of
opportunity:
First, because now the FARC are on this side and not in the other. Second, because
we have security conditions that allow much greater territorial control. Third,
because the new strategy is a process of participation at the producer’s level, that is,
it is not a plan against producers but with them, who take the transforming elements
to change their model of subsistence. (Pardo, R. quoted in Semana, 2017a. [Self-
translation])
Additionally, the new post-agreement scenario has led to a de-escalation of armed

conflict in many regions previously controlled by the FARC-EP, which has allowed scientific
expeditions to untouched ecosystems. Brigitte Baptiste, director of the Alexander von
Humboldt Institute for Research on Biological Resources, explained that researchers "have
had the opportunity to visit places that were traditionally forbidden for any type of
expedition, because they were mined or with the presence of illegal actors" (Baptiste, B.
quoted in Semana, 2017[Self-translation]). In other words, the end of the armed conflict with
the FARC-EP has allowed knowing national territorialities, and knowing is the first step to
preserve. Since the end of last year, several expeditions have been realized within Colombia
Bio programme which aims to complete 20 scientific expeditions until 2018. To date, at least
89 potential new species and 283 new registers for the country have been identified. (El
Tiempo, 2017b)
Consistent with the above, economic reintegration of the FARC-EP could be settled
as alternative development activities related with forests conservation and preservation.
According to the most recent socio-economic census of its members, 27% of the 10,015
members surveyed would be willing to work as forest rangers and 24% as tourist guides in

protected and productive ecosystems (UNAL, 2017).15 These activities could be developed in
articulation with the host communities.
Regarding the rural reform, the Agreement’s implementation is an opportunity to
move forward to an environmental guided territorial management. This could be based on an
extensive rural land registration and taking into account the land suitability and the biologic
diversity. As long as this reform represents several challenges, and because land-tenure is a
characteristic of the environmental paradox, these issues will be addressed in the next
sections.
Finally, the Peace Agreement also states that in the areas most affected by poverty,
armed conflict, institutional weakness and illegal economies, Development Programmes with
a Territorial-Based Approach (PDETs) will be developed. The PDETs’ implementation
started recently and comprises sixteen PDETs, which gather 170 municipalities in 19 of the
32 Colombian departments, representing 34% of the country’s territory. Three of them are
located in the Amazon region: the PDET of Caguán’s Basin and Caquetás’ Foothills, the
Macarena – Guaviare’s PDET and the Putumayo’s PDET. As stated before, the Chapter V.
will elaborate on these implementation mechanisms considered as a potential opportunity for
consolidating environmental peace at the local level that encompasses forests protection.
The post-agreement as challenge for the forests.
The Colombian environmental authorities were expecting an increase in deforestation

during the post-agreement scenario. As the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable
Development and the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies
(IDEAM) stated in the Amazon Forest Reference Emission Level (FREL):
During the transitional period, an increase in infrastructure development processes,
the return of internally displaced people to rural areas and the growth of extractive
industries are expected […] it is clear that a socio-political scenario of the end of the
armed conflict can stimulate accelerated deforestation as it creates greater investor
confidence and allows entry to areas formerly inaccessible by the conflict. (MADS –
IDEAM, 2014, p.24)
In this way, the country adjusted its historical average of deforestation by 10% in the
framework of its FREL. In fact, from 2015 to 2016, deforestation increased 44%, meaning
178.597 ha deforested during 2016. Hereafter the challenge of the potential and current
increase of deforestation will be analysed.
15
It was a multiple-choice question, which implies that each chosen option is not necessarily the first choice.
However, it indicates that members would be willing to engage in any of these activities.

Firstly, after the FARC–EP concentration in the Transitional Local Zones for
Normalization (ZVTN) several regions previously controlled and in some way protected by
the guerrilla’s structures are now being areas of deforestation.
To the historical drivers of deforestation, it is feasible to add the fact that 'gunpoint
conservation' and land-management regulations imposed by the FARC-EP seems to be
higher than expected. As Commander Bayron Yepes states:
In our Front’s area [Felipe Rincon Front] there were rules of coexistence. There,
50% was for livestock, 10% for agriculture and 40% for reserve or ‘mountain’. Thus,
when there are standards of this quality, there may be a balance between man and
nature (El Espectador, 2017, [Self-translation])
To what extent the increase is triggered by the absence of the FARC-EP is still to be
determined; as the intensification for the first three months of this year has been
concentrated in areas that historically had been guerrilla hinterlands, it is likely that another
forest cover loss escalation happens in 2018.
According to the Colombian System of Forests and Carbon Monitoring (SMBYC),
the most critical zones where deforestation persists since the beginning of the Agreement’s
implementation are the municipalities of Mesetas and La Uribe in the Meta Department, San
José del Guaviare and Calamar in the Guaviare Department and San Vicente del Caguán and
Cartagena del Chairá in Caquetá. In these regions, the main drivers of deforestation are the
enlargement of the agricultural frontier, roads infrastructure development and illegal logging.
These municipalities are part of the Macarena-Guaviare PDET (Nº 7 in Figure 12.) and
Caguán’s Basin and Caquetá’ Foothills PDET (Nº 5 in Figure 12.) (IDEAM, 2017a). Thus,
one challenge in curbing deforestation is to ensure the effective presence of the state in areas
previously controlled by the FARC.
As stated before, one of the main items of the Final Agreement is the Comprehensive
Rural Reform, however legislatives challenges need to be addressed, as well as their
concordance with the Agreement. Before the fast-track procedures finished,16 the executive
issues the Law decree 902 of 2017 to facilitate the implementation of the Rural Reform,
specifically the procedure for access and formalization and the Land Fund.
16
After the defeat of the plebiscite as mechanism for the Agreement’s public endorsement, the Peace
Delegations included some modifications to the agreement and signed a new one on November 24, 2016, in
order to gain further political support in Congress. Finally, the legislative power endorsed the new Peace
Agreement on November 30, 2016, and the Agreement’s implementation began on December 1. Initially, as a
result of the Legislative Act 01 of 2016, Juan Manuel Santos had legal instruments that facilitated the
Agreement’s regulatory development. However, last May 14th the Constitutional Court, considered that the Act
01 violated the principle of powers separation and declared some aspects as unenforceable, putting then an end
to the fast-track procedures and making slower the normative development of the Agreement.

Although the Agreement made explicit that this Fund would be destined for landless
rural inhabitants or ‘insufficient’ land owners, a series of Articles derogate many aspects of
the Rural Reform Law (Law 160 of 1994), allowing access to uncultivated land for producers
who should not be subject to agrarian reform. (Galindo, P. personal communication,
07.27.2017). Hence, the Land Fund could lead to pressures on forests that would be
transformed in order to get potential access to land titling. This is likely insofar as the land
tenure rights of a large part of the territory are not clear. Moreover, according to the Final
Agreement, the Multipurpose Catastrophe Bill aims to reform the cadastral system in
Colombia given the historical lack of information on land tenure in the country. However,
there is no clear evidence of linkages with the purpose of the Integral Rural Reform, the
financing sources are not guaranteed (Coljuristas, 2017), there is an evident absence of links
to any of the categories of the National Environmental System (SINA) and it is not clear on
its position regarding vacant land (baldíos) (Rodríguez, 2017). Henceforth, it is envisaged that
the normative and legislative development of the Rural Reform will be significantly distanced
from that contemplated in the Final Agreement and the challenge of the land-tenure rights
will remain in force. (Barajas, J. personal communication, 08.07.2017)
Another post-agreement’s challenge is related with the development pressures.
During the peace negotiations the Colombian government insisted in the fact that the
country’s development model would not be negotiated. In the same vein, current
government’s rhetoric is focused on increasing foreign investment as one of the ‘peace
dividends’ resulting from the negotiated solution to the armed conflict. One of the leading
pillars of the current development model is the energy-mining ‘locomotive’, in which
extractive activities are the main driver of economic growth. As the former President of the
Colombian Oil Company suggests:
With peace, we would expect to have the possibility of entering Caquetá much
stronger, to Putumayo, to Catatumbo, places where it was difficult to access before.
Peace must enable us, not only to ECOPETROL, but also to all the oil companies
in the country, to generate development in the regions, to get more oil (Echeverry,
J.C. quoted in El Espectador, 2016 [Self-translation])
Additionally, as part of the legislative Agreement’s development, the Colombian

government issued the Law decree 883 of 2017, which modifies the Law 1819 of 2016 (Tax
reform) to include mining companies and hydrocarbon exploitation activities in the form of
public works as tax deduction. According to Paola Galindo, a congressman staff member, this
could derive in territorial and environmental conflicts due the fact that social and
infrastructure investments during the post-agreement may be conditioned to allowing

extractive activities in the territories. (Galindo, P. personal communication. 07.27.2017). Both,

the tax deductions and the security conditions make likely a proliferation of mining
applications (Figure 11.), which by 2015 summed 444 present in about the 75% of the
municipalities of the Colombian Amazon (Salazar & Riaño, 2016).
Figure 11. Mining applications in the Colombia Amazon region. 2015
Mining applications 2015
Colombian Amazon
Source: SINCHI, 2016

In addition, the interest in the region of the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH) is
evident, Salazar and Riaño (2016) analysed the ANH’s land map in July 2014, and evidenced
their intention to reserve areas for the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons in at
least 34.6% of the region (167,060.37 km2). For that year, the region had a total production
area of 2,211.29 km2, concentrated mainly in Putumayo with 69.78% of the total production
area. In addition, the weakness of environmental authorities and the importance of extractive
income for the nation's investment budget could lead to a short-term proliferation in the
region of the oil production area. In this regard, Luz Mery Panche, nasa indigenous leader
pointed out:
I mean, the territory is comprehensive [...] when they opened the oil wells in Los
Pozos [in Putumayo department] we said who will be affected in Los Pozos?
Nobody. It turns out that [in] the Yaguara resguardo, which is crossed by the Tunia
river, [which] goes to the Chiribiquete park, […] there was an impressive fish
mortality, there, in the hamlet of the Yaguara resguardo, because it turns out that the

Tunia is born in Los Pozos sector, and Yaguara, which is twelve hours from Los
Pozos sector was affected, because the water network back in the Amazon is a
network, then, you pollute a water source and it was contaminated even the Amazon
17
river. (Panche, L.M, interview by: Galindo, P. 05.17.2017).
Moreover, the current scenario is not disconnected with centre-periphery cleavage,

and it is expected that during the Agreement’s implementation the tensions would be greater.
The energy mining ‘locomotive’ promoted by the centre is being halted by popular
consultations at the municipal level that are rejecting extractive activities in their territories.
To date, seven of these consults have been made, and currently there are about 83 ongoing
processes of popular consultation along the country (Sampayo, O. personal communication,
08.17.2017). On the other hand, the Colombian government is trying to limit the scope of
these consultations using the Agreement’s normative and legislative implementation. For,
Oscar Sampayo, researcher of the Magdalena Medio’s Environmental Studies Group, it is
clear that the post-agreement transition will enhance the socio-environmental conflicts in the
territories that are object of extractive activities (Sampayo, 2017).
In the same vein, the post-agreement transition is also a challenge for environmental
activism and the leaders who defend their territories. In the year 2016, Adrián Quintero,
Alberto Pascal García, Amado Gómez, Aníbal Coronado, Anuar José Álvarez Armero, Ariel
Sotelo, Camilo Roberto Taicus Bisbicusm, Cecilia Coicue, Cristian Anacona Castro, Didier
Losada Barreto, Diego Alfredo Chirán Nastacuas, Erley Monroy Fierro, Evaristo Dagua
Troches, Gersaín Cerón, Gil de Jesús Silgado, Henry Pérez, Jesús Adilio Mosquera Palacios,
Jhon Jairo Rodriguez, Joel Meneses, Johan Alexis Vargas, José Antonio Velasco Taquinas,
Luciano Pascal García, Luís Carlos Tenorio, Manuel Chimá Pérez, Manuel Dolores Pino
Perafán, Marco Aurelio Díaz, Maricela Tombé, Nereo Meneses, Néstor Iván Martínez,
Orlando Olave, Ramiro Culma Carepa, Víctor Andrés Flórez, William Alexander Oimé
Alarcón, William Castillo Chima, Willington Quibarecama Naquirucama, Yaneth Alejandra
Calvache Viveros and Yimer Chávez Rivera, all of them environmental leaders and activists,
were murdered in Colombia. The Country is the second most dangerous country for
environmental activism after Brazil. With this regard, the NGO Global Witness, states:
In Colombia, killings hit an all-time high, despite – or perhaps because – of the
recently signed peace deal between the government and the guerrilla group, the
FARC. Areas previously under guerrilla control are now eyed enviously by extractive
17
Original in Spanish: O sea, el territorio es integral […] cuando abrieron los pozos petroleros en Los Pozos, nosotros decíamos,
¿en Los Pozos a quien va a afectar?, a nadie, pues resulta que el resguardo Yaguara que está atravesado por el río la Tunia, que la
Tunia va hacia el parque el Chiribiquete, pues resulta que hubo una mortandad de peces impresionante ahí en el caserío del
resguardo Yaguara, porque resulta que la Tunia nace en el sector de Los Pozos, y Yaguara que está a doce horas del sector de los
pozos se vio afectada, porque la red hídrica allá en la Amazonía es una red, entonces tu contaminas un ojo de agua y se contaminó
hasta el río amazonas.

companies and paramilitaries, while returning communities are attacked for

reclaiming land stolen from them during half a century of conflict. (2017, p.6)
Finally, economic resources needed are also a challenge. In year 2015 the national
government created the Fund for Environmental Sustainability and Sustainable Rural
Development in Conflict Affected Areas (Art. 116 of Law 1769 of 2015) whose objectives
initially included the collection of resources by the international community to promote rural
development, environmental sustainability, and reduction of climate change in the areas most
affected by the armed conflict in Colombia.
Despite its mainly environmental focus, the fund was known as the ‘great fund’ for
post-conflict. Accordingly, the Decree 691 of April 27, 2017, replace the fund by a new one
called Colombia in Peace Fund (FCP). FCP was created for "being the main instrument for
the administration, coordination, execution of the different sources of resources to carry out
the necessary actions for the implementation of the Final Agreement for the Termination of
the Conflict and the Construction of a Stable and long-lasting Peace" (Decree 691, 2017).
Thus, the resources that would initially be destined exclusively to transverse environmental
sustainability strategies will now be used for the entire implementation process. Moreover, the
Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development has not been appointed in the
recently selected governing board of the Fund Colombia in Peace.
The SINA is a well-designed system, which has had relatively small policy influence
partially due their insufficient resources. By 2012, the SINA resources were one third of 1998
budget. (SNU, 2014). According to the country’s General Budget proposal for 2018, the
environmental sector would suffer cuts of about 60% in comparison to 2017. The overall
budget would be COP$ 232.000 Millions (approx. €66 Millions EU), being the National Parks
Authority, IDEAM and the Alexander von Humboldt Institute for Research on Biological
Resources the most affected. (El Espectador, 2017a).
This year, its budget was 0.08% of Colombian GDP, the next year their participation
will be 0.06% (Espitia, 2017). Paradoxically, the country is trying to be part of the OECD, in
where the average environmental sector participation on GDP for the member countries is
between 1 – 2 %. Moreover, public Research and Development (R&D) spending dedicated to
environment in the OECD countries grew about 20% since 2000. It represents 1,6% of
overall R&D, which average is 0,7% of GDP. In Colombia, the overall R&D spending is
0,04%, the next year will be 0,02% (OECD, 2015; Espitia, 2017). Therefore, one main
challenge for forests conservation and environmental strategies in general, are the financing
shortages. New funding strategies and sources are needed.

The post-agreement as paradox for forests’ future
A new country is beginning in territories, which we start to recognize

from biodiversity, but which are now also open for development.
What is important, is to reconcile a development model that is sustainable.
Hernando García. Deputy Director.
18
Alexander von Humboldt Institute for Research on Biological Resources
Colombia is the world’s fourth most ‘mega-diverse’ country –hosting about 14% of
the planet’s biodiversity– and owns one of the largest areas of primary forest in the world –
about 59 million hectares–. Over one-half of Colombia’s territory is covered by forests, 87%
of which are primary forests. As argued before, the great paradox of Colombian post-conflict
might be their implications for the country's environment: peacebuilding opportunities based
on sustainable development could be implemented or the destruction of the nation's natural
heritage could be accelerated.
The United Nation System in Colombia, suggested almost three years ago, that this
paradox is particularly true because the prioritized zones and municipalities for the
implementation of peacebuilding actions -infrastructure development, opening of markets
and capitals, agricultural development, demining programs, substitution of coca crops, the
Land Fund, among others- are areas of high environmental relevance. By then, its analysis
shows that more than the 90% of the prioritized municipalities have at least one protection or
land-regulation figure. (SNU, 2014)
Within the Agreement’s implementation the Law decree 893 of May 28th, established
the Development Programmes with a Territorial-Based Approach. Through these
Programmes 170 municipalities were prioritized and gathered in 16 PDETs: Alto Patía -
Northern Cauca (1), Arauca (2), Southern Cauca and Northeast Antioquia (3), Catatumbo (4),
Caguán’s Basin and Caquetás’ Foothills (5), Chocó (6), Macarena – Guaviare (7), Montes de
María (8), Middle Pacific (9), Pacific and Nariño border (10), Putumayo (11), Sierra Nevada –
Perijá (12), Southern Bolívar (13), Southern Córdoba (14), Southern Tolima (15) and
Antioquia’s Urabá area (16). As Figure 12. shows, the municipalities prioritized during the
post-conflict are located in highly biodiverse areas such as the Colombian amazon, the Chocó
forest, the Sierra Nevada, the Darien gap and the San Lucas mountain range, this means that
the PDETs’ implementation correspond with the territorial dimension of the environmental
paradox.
18
El Tiempo (05.12.2017) El pez más pequeño del mundo y otros hallazgos de Colombia Bio. Retrieved from:
http://www.eltiempo.com/vida/medio-ambiente/nuevas-especies-descubiertas-en-colombia-87150

Figure 12. Early Deforestation Alerts (EDA) 2017-first quarter, forest coverage, and Development Programmes with a Territorial-Based Approach (PDETs)
E.D.A
Forest
No forest.
Source: IDEAM, 2017 Source: PARES, 2017

Secondly, the Early Deforestation Alerts (EDA) produced by the Colombian System
of Forests and Carbon Monitoring during the first quarter of the current year, evidences 8
focus of deforestation: the region of Caguán and Yarí rivers in Caquetá department (Focus 1),
the area of influence of the Marginal de la Selva road in Guaviare department (Focus 2), the
south of the Catatumbo river, in Norte de Santander department (Focus 3), Calamar and El
Retorno municipalities in Guaviare department (Focus 4), San Jose municipality and Nukak
Maku resguardo in north-eastern Guavire department (Focus 5), in Uribe municipality, in the
surroundings of the Tinigüa and Cordillera de los Picachos PNNs (Focus 6), the south-
western part of Cordoba department, close to Paramillo PNN (Focus 7) and Choco
department near the Quito river (Focus 8).
Troublingly, the Macarena-Guavire PDET (Nº 7 in Figure 12.) hosts half of the focus
of EDAs (Focus 2, 4, 5 and 6). Furthermore, the EDAs Focus 1 is located in the Caguán’s
Basin and Caquetás’ Foothills PDET (Nº 5 in Figure 13.), the Focus 3 is situated in
Catatumbo’s PDET (Nº 4 in Figure 12.), the deforestation Focus 7 is in Southern Córdoba
PDET (Nº 14 in Figure 12), and the Focus 8 is located in Chocó PDET (Nº 6 in Figure 12.).
This mean that 75% of the deforestation alerts focus during the first quarter of 2017 are
situated in the Amazon region and, all of them are occurring in municipalities prioritized
during the post-agreement.
Hence, the PDETs and its prioritize municipalities possess a high environmental
relevance and there is a geographical correlation between forest areas and the implementation
of peacebuilding actions. Here, it must be added that most of the current pressures to the
Colombian forests during the post-agreement scenario are occurring in the same prioritized
areas. In this way, institutional responses to the environmental paradox should involve short-
term solutions as well as long-term interventions. Both time frames require technical and
financial capacities to address challenges regarding planning, monitoring and control actions.
(SNU, 2014).
To sum up, at a global level it exists a correlation that indicates that those countries
with higher peace levels have a better environmental performance. In this way, the post-
agreement transition is a window of opportunity to increase Colombia’s environmental
outcomes. Environmental considerations could be likely included in the implementation of
the National Comprehensive Plan for the Substitution of Crops Used for Illicit Purposes, but
less promising within the Comprehensive Rural Reform. Secondly, the ongoing research
expeditions are leading to a better knowledge of the Colombian ecosystems, which can be
preserved by former rebels and host communities.

On the other hand, the ‘gunpoint conservation’ seems to be higher than expected, and
previous hinterlands are being now deforested mainly by the enlargement of the agricultural
frontier, roads infrastructure development and illegal logging. Therefore, in order to halt
deforestation, ensuring a stable state presence is urgent. However, the government energy-
mining ‘locomotive’, the budget dependence of the extractive rent, and the foreign
investment raise will increase the pressure on the forests and could lead to greater socio-
environmental conflicts. Thus, the post-agreement transition configures an environmental
paradox in which the level of forests transformation would depend on the kind of political
agreements and bargaining reached in the prioritized territorialities during the Final
Agreement’s implementation.

V. Towards an environmental peace
V. Towards an environmental peace: The Case of the Development

Programmes with Territorial-Based Approach in the Colombian
Amazon
I shall distinguish the environment as commons from the environment as resource

[…] I could express the distinction between the commons within which people's
subsistence activities are embedded, and resources that serve for the economic
production of those commodities on which modem survival depends.
[…] People called commons those parts of the environment for which customary law
exacted specific forms of community respect.
19
Ivan Illich, 1983.
In the Colombian rural areas, the Multidimensional Poverty Index is 44,7%, and it more
than doubles the national average of 21,9%. (DANE, 2017) In terms of land inequality, the
country’s 1% biggest Agricultural Production Units, holds the 81% of the productive lands,
giving Colombia the first place in land inequality within the Latin America region (Oxfam,
2017).20 The spirit of the Final Agreement embraces the obligation to close the gap between
rural and urban areas by strengthening the state’s presence and its capacity throughout the
country.
Nonetheless, this is a complex and long-lasting process that seems to conflict with the
urgent necessity of the Agreement’s implementation, particularly with the development of
critical items such as the Comprehensive Rural Reform. In that sense, immediate capacity
building of the current entities responsible for the local management and administration is
unfeasible. (Vargas & Hurtado, 2017).
Looking forward to overcoming the above-mentioned trade-off, the Agreement
established the PDETs, as ad hoc mechanisms which are probably a faster solution, but could
lead to several conflicts and tensions with the current local and regional authorities. Aydinli
(2010) suggests that during post-conflict transitions states tent to centralize power but pressure
for power diffusion needs to be addressed. In the same vein, following the centralized character
of the Colombian policy-making process, the national government recently created the
Territorial Renewal Agency (ART), which is already overseeing the implementation of the
19
Illich, I. (1983). Silence is commons. Computers are doing to communication what fences did to pastures and
cars did to streets. CoEvolution Quarterly, 4.
20
The UPA is a unit of organization of the agricultural production that can be formed by a partial, complete or by
a set of rural land or properties continuous or separated in one or more municipalities, as long as they share the
same means of production. The UPA is the unit from which the National Agricultural Census.

PDETs. Table 1. and Figure 13. present the PDETs within the Colombian Amazon
jurisdiction.21
Table 1. Development Programmes with a Territorial-Based Approach in the Colombian Amazon
# Name Departments Municipalities

5 Caguán's Basin and Caquetá - Huila Caquetá: Albania, Valparaiso, Solita, Belén de
Caquetás' Foothills Andaquies, Florencia, La Montañita, El Paujil, El
Doncello, Puerto Rico, San Vicente del Caguán,
Cartagena del Chaira and Solano
Huila: Algeciras
7 Macarena - Meta - Guaviare Guaviare: Miraflores, El Retorno, Calamar and San
Guaviare José del Guavirare.
Meta: La Macarena, Uribe, Mesetas, Puerto Lleras,
Puerto Rico, Puerto Concondia, Mapiripan and
Vistahermosa
11 Putumayo Putumayo Valle del Guamuez, San Miguel, Orito, Villagarzón,
Mocoa, Puerto Asís, Puerto Caicedo, Puerto
Leguízamo and Puerto Guzmán.
Total 3 5 34
Source: Self-constructed based on Decree Law 893. May 28, 2017.
Figure 13. PDETs in the Amazon Region.
5
11
Source: Self-constructed based on Decree Law 893. May 28, 2017.
21
Although either Algeciras (Huila), nor all of Meta’s municipalities are within the Amazon forest, as ad hoc
planning and management mechanisms, the PDETs’ scope should be both, regional and municipal. Consequently,
those municipalities are included along this Chapter.

The PDETs were prioritized based on the following criteria: i.) levels of extreme poverty
and Unsatisfied Basic Needs (UBN); ii.) the degree of armed conflict incidence, according to the
ACII; iii.) administrative weaknesses and management capacities; and iv.) the presence of illicit
crops and other illegal economies. According to this, sixteen zones gathering 170 municipalities
–about 15% of country’s municipalities, which represent 34% of Colombia’s continental
territory– were established.
a. PDETs and territoriality in the Amazon region
As argued before, territorial processes could be explored from different perspectives.

Afterwards, the interactions between PDETs and territoriality are presented from the protected
areas (PAs) perspective including National Natural Parks (PNN), indigenous resguardos, and
Peasant Farmer Reserve Areas (ZRC). Their relations with coca cultivation and the PDET’s
territorial approach are also presented.
Several PAs are located within the above-mentioned PDETs, including: National
Natural Reservation Nukak, PNN Sierra de la Macarena, PNN Cordillera de los Picachos, PNN
Serranía de Chiribiquete, PNN Tinigua, PNN Alto Fragua Indi Wasi, PNN La Paya, PNN
Plantas Medicinales Orito Ingi - Ande, and the PNN Serranía de los Curumbelos. Moreover,
according to the last National Census, the prioritized regions are home of at least 140
resguardos. As Armenteras et.al. (2009) evidenced, the higher size of PAs and resguardos could
have a greater impact as barriers against deforestation. In that vein, PAs and resguardos might
be extended taking advantage of the new Communal and Municipalities Pacts. (See Figure 14.)
Nevertheless, following Saout et al. (2013), it should be highlighted that this expansion must be
complemented by an appropriate management approach and by assuring adequate funding.
Concerning the resguardos figure as a legal mechanism of protection and defence for
indigenous territories, Azuero (2017) points out that their expansion also has been shaping a
discursive imaginary of the indigenous peoples as the ‘good ecological savage’, where the
settlers-peasants appear as “those whom with their farming and settlement practices are killing
the jungle and indigenous cultures” (p.130 [Self-translation]). On the other hand, the
constitutional peasants’ rights are not as strong as the indigenous ones. The land-tenure figure
of the ZRC, is one of the few constitutional peasant-oriented models. There are three ZRC in
the region: Calamar ZRC (Macarena – Guaviere PDET), El Pato ZRC (Caguán's Basin and
Caquetás' Foothills PDET) and the ZRC of La Perla Amazónica (Putumayo PDET).
Consequently, interethnic conflicts and a differentiated-approach should be considered when
discussing territorial trajectories and potential land-management developments.

Regarding the relationship between territoriality and coca cultivation, the

aforementioned PNNs hosted about 5228 ha of illicit crops by the end of 2016. Moreover, the
overall area of illicit crops in Colombian resguardos increases about 32% from 2015, while in
the country’s PNNs coca cultivation increased 27%. (UNODC, 2017) According to the United
Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (2017), in Colombia the illicit crops raised significantly
during 2016. By the end of the year, the country had about 146.000 ha, representing an increase
of 52% in comparison with 2015. Likewise, the prioritized region represents about one third of
the total cultivated area. (p. 11)
Considering territorial processes in the construction of the PDETs, the territorial-based
approach is embedded in the PDETs design process as follow:
Figure 14. Design of the PDETs
Communal Pacts
Municipal Pacts of Regional Action
for the Territorial PDETs
Territorial Renewal Plans
Renewal
Source: Self-constructed based on ART, 2017
According to the Territorial Renewal Agency, between August and December, 2017 the
design will start in communities of 11.000 rural areas with the participatory construction of the
Communal Pacts for the Territorial Renewal. Based on the inputs of the Communal Pacts, 170
Municipal Pacts of Territorial Renewal -one for each prioritized municipality- will be formulated
“with the support of communities, ethnic authorities, local entities, social organizations and
private companies, among other actors that are part of the territories, between January and
March 2018.” (ART, 2017 [Self-translation]).
After the Municipal Pacts have been concluded, in April 2018, 16 Regional Action Plans
will be formulated, these Action Plans are basically the Territorial-based Approach
Development Programs. It is the first time, that a bottom-up approach of this scale is
implemented in Colombia.
b. PDETs and the post-agreement transition in the Amazon region
As argued before, the post-agreement scenario is not a post-conflict transition. Armed

conflict is still a threat to many rural areas in Colombia. Peace and Reconciliation Foundation

(PARES) states that the armed dissidence of the FARC-EP is being unified in the south of the
country in the departments of Guainía, Vaupés, Guaviare, Meta and Putumayo. Moreover, in
Caquetá department, in San Vicente del Caguán and Cartagena del Chairá municipalities, they
alert the presence of the armed groups Nuevo Renacer AUC and Águilas Negras. (PARES,
2017)
A significant diminish of armed conflict dynamics is necessarily related with a stable
presence of the state in the areas previously controlled by the FARC-EP and now open to
territorial disputes between other armed actors. As long as the FARC-EP used to have a strong
military presence in the region, their recent transition into the Alternative Revolutionary Force
of the Commons (FARC) –a political party committed with the political struggle without using
arms– is particularly relevant in terms of armed conflict incidence in the region.
The PDETs, as ad hoc policy instruments, could tackle the structural causes of armed
conflict produced largely by the historical absence of the state in great part of the territories. It is
still to be determined to what extent these mechanisms could guide the most-affected by armed
conflict territorialities into development pathways that prevent warfare relapses. Nevertheless,
the fact that the problems of those communities are now visible and that they could decide –at
least at the design level– which kind of development they are willing to adopt, sheds light of
different policy outcomes from the usual ones.
Specifically, forest-based income generating activities might play a predominant role.
Figure 15. shows the different goods and services provided by tropical forest:
Figure 15. Tropical forests’ goods, services, and development
Source: Seymour and Busch, 2016, p. 152

Within the Communal and Municipal Pacts, forest-based income generating activities, in
which ex-combatants and local communities develop sustainable exploitation activities, are a
potential option for protecting the forest in each community. As stated before, this is likely
given that 27% of the 10,015 FARC members surveyed would be willing to work as forest
rangers and 24% as tourist guides in protected and productive ecosystems. (UNAL, 2017)
Similarly, the recent creation of the organization Social Economy of the Commons
(ECOMUN) as the main instrument for the economic reintegration of ex-combatants, and the
fact that all of them are willing to develop collective projects (UNAL, 2017), makes the
reincorporation process an opportunity to promote the development of agro ecological
production projects or climate-smart agriculture initiatives with low carbon emissions, which in
turn will halt deforestation.
Accordingly, within the PDETs in the focus region, there are six of the former
Transitional Local Zones for Normalization, nowadays called Territorial Areas for Capacity-
building and Reincorporation (ETCR). They are located in the surroundings of protected areas.
This proximity allows the participation of ex-combatants in programmes like ‘Forest rangers for
peace’ that could improve the management of the PAs. Moreover, in the ETCR of Colinas, in
the Guaviare department, 500 FARC members are building a ‘sustainable and ecologic
settlement’ which could be replicated in the other ECTR (El Espectador, 2017; Semana, 2017).
Regarding global public goods provided by forests, the REDD+ National Strategy and
results based approaches, such as the comprehensive programme Vision Amazonia which
contemplate payments for about US$100 Millions supported by the governments of the United
Kingdom, Norway and Germany, could help Colombia to accomplish the zero net deforestation
in the Amazon forest by 2020. Further research might be developed concerning REDD+
funding and implementation during the current post-agreement scenario. In the short-term,
nested REDD+ strategies could be explored within the PDETs jurisdictions.
As mentioned before, the sixteen PDETs represent about 34% of the Colombian
territory. However, they only correspond to 7,6% of the electoral roll. Aiming at balancing their
political representation, those prioritized zones will be also Special Transitory Electoral Districts
for Peace. Thus, temporary electoral House of Representatives districts will be created for two
electoral periods in which social organizations can nominate candidates but not the traditional
parties. This implies the possibility for local communities to raise territorial concerns at the
national level -including environmental issues-. Especial attention should be devoted to the
murder of environmental leaders and the retaliations for those who defend their territories. If

this is not the case, the risks for potential new candidates due to their public exposure might be
devastating.
c. PDETs and the deforestation in the Amazon region
The Colombian System of Forests and Carbon Monitoring is progressively improving

their reporting capacity. In doing so, every quarter of the year it produces a report of Early
Deforestation Alerts (EDAs). The Table 2 summarized the participation of the prioritized
municipalities in the total of national EDAs for the first quarter of 2017:
Table 2. Amazon region PDETs and their participation in Colombia’s Early Deforestation
Alerts. First quarter – 2017
Caguán's Basin and
Macarena - Guaviare Putumayo
Caquetás' Foothills
San Vicente del Caguán 19,10%
Cartagena del Chairá 14,40%
San José del Guaviare 13,30%
Calamar 4,70%
La Macarena 3,10%
Puerto Leguízamo 3,00%
Solano 2,90%
Uribe 2,50%
El Retorno 2,40%
Puerto Guzmán 2,20%
Puerto Rico 1,90%
Florencia 0,90%
Vistahermosa 0,80%
Total 34,40% 31,60% 5,20%
Source: Self-constructed based on IDEAM, 2017
During the first quarter of 2017, about 71% of country’s EDAs were concentred in
municipalities within the PDETs of the Amazon region. About 14% of the municipalities
prioritized during the PDETs processes evidenced EDAs. Particularly worrying, San Vicente del
Caguán municipality and Cartagena del Chairá represented 19,10% and 14,4% of the country’s
EDAs respectively; during this period, the Caguán's Basin and Caquetás' Foothills PDET were
the focus of more than one third of the Colombia’s EDA.
Although the participation of Macarena – Guaviare PDET is slightly less, more than
60% of its municipalities evidence EDAs. 31,60% of country’s EDA were concentred within
the Macarena - Guaviare PDET.

Along Putumayo PDET, deforestation alerts were present in Puerto Leguízamo and
Puerto Guzmán municipalities. This PDET represented 5,20% of the total EDA during the
analysed period.
Being difficult to establish the drivers of the above increment of deforestation alerts,
two dynamics should be stated: i.) territories previously controlled by the FARC-EP are facing
now an increase in deforestation and ii.) land-grabbing pressures, partially derived from titling
rights embraced in the Agreement, seems to spread within the region (Revelo, J. personal
communication, 08.14.2017).
Table 3. gathered historical drivers of deforestation in the Amazon region and some
challenges that need to be addressed during the post-agreement transition:
Table 3. Historical drivers of deforestation in the Amazon region and post-agreement challenges
Drivers of
Description and challenges
deforestation
Expansion of It is defined as the advance of the deforestation front for intensive farming of
the agriculturalland. (Nepstad et al. 2013). The Land Fund and the implementation of the
frontier Comprehensive Rural Reform could lead to its increase in the region.
The conversion to pastures is causing the greatest loss of forest cover in the
Cattle ranching
region. (Armenteras et al. 2013; Nepstad et al. 2013)
Compared to other land uses, their area is not very large. (Nepstad et al. 2013).
Illicit crops However, in 2016 they evidenced a notorious increase. 33% of the country's
illicit crops are in the Amazon region (UNODC, 2017)
Migration (e.g. Migration, including displacement associated with the armed conflict, generates
colonization, colonization of forest areas (Nepstad et al. 2013). During the post-agreement
displacement) transition a return of internal displace people is also expected.
Since 2006 the mining activity has been favoured in the region due to national
Mining (legal
economic growth strategies (Arenas et al. 2011). The government is expecting a
and illegal)
mining boost during the post-agreement.
In recent years, knowledge of the geological potential of the region has
improved. By 2010, 1% of the Amazon territory was in production, 10% in
Oil and gas
exploration and 40% in technical evaluation. (Arenas et al. 2011). The
exploitation
government is trying to reserve areas for the exploration and exploitation of
hydrocarbons in at least 34.6% of the region (Salazar & Riaño, 2016)
There is a positive correlation between the location of productive land uses and
Infrastructure the presence of access roads (Nepstad et al. 2013). For the government, the
development ‘backbone’ of the PDETs is the 51x50 Plan, which seeks the improvement of
tertiary roads connecting rural areas with municipal headwaters. (ACP, 2017)
They can occur because of natural or anthropogenic causes, the latter to manage
Forest fires
or to enhance productivity of the land (Nepstad et al. 2013).
Source: Self-constructed based on MADS - IDEAM, 2014
Concerning the expansion of the agricultural frontier, the three PDETs are in the
agricultural frontier of the Amazon region. These municipalities are somehow protecting the
southern Amazon forest as well as the northeast areas in which land conflicts are less intense.

Halting the expansion of this frontier is a guarantee for protecting other territories that are not
part of the PDETs. The pressures of the Comprehensive Rural Reform as well as the Land
Fund could be addressed within the Regional Action Plans. Including new land-management
models based on the land suitability and the relevant environmental criteria suggested by the
Regional Autonomous Corporations could also stop the increase of grazing areas for cattle
ranching. Environmental considerations should be more easily included in these ad hoc Plans
rather than in the traditional public policy instruments.
Regarding illicit crops, the National Comprehensive Plan for the Substitution of Crops
Used for Illicit Purposes is the clearest signal of the post-agreement transition in the region.
According with the field-researcher, Javier Revelo, the activities in the framework of this Plan
would be the primary finished actions concerning the overall Agreement’s implementation
(Revelo, 2017).
Conversely, the internal displacement flows as well as the potential return of victims of
armed conflict to their original territories is more difficult to tackle within the PDETs
framework. An appropriate humanitarian response from local and international organizations is
required. But more relevant is fighting the armed actors who are causing the internal
displacements and migrations.
On the other hand, despite the government clear interest on increasing the presence in
the Amazon region of the energy-mining ‘locomotive’, communities could use the Municipal
Pacts for strengthen the environmental returns of extractive activities or even stop the extractive
activities due the municipalities’ co-property of the subsoil. In that sense, the PDETs could
constitute another mechanism of bargaining and dispute in order to reverse development driven
by the centre. Considering the rising of popular consultations and the consolidation of the
conservationism discourse along the country, the conflicting perspective could exacerbate the
socio-environmental conflicts in the prioritized municipalities.
However, the deforestation associated with infrastructure development, particularly with
tertiary roads would almost be impossible to halt. For the Colombian government, the ‘peace
dividends’ necessarily include opening new markets and reducing the cost of goods
transportation, as they suggested the ‘backbone’ of the PDETs is the improvement of tertiary
roads which are now concentrating the most investments. These roads might serve for better
communication between rural areas, but at the same time, they significate better conditions for
corporations and their access to previous ‘closed’ to development areas.
Finally, concerning forest fires management, community-based forestry models in alike
post-agreement contexts should be considered. In Guatemala, Elías and Monterroso among

others, documented the experience of the Forestry Communal Concessions in Petén. The
Concessions have been able to contribute to conserving the Biosphere Maya Reserve as they
have succeeded halted forest fires but also, illegal logging and the expansion of the agricultural
frontier. Besides, they have been also regions for reconciliation during the post-conflict
scenario, in where victims and former combatants are working together in the sustainable
exploitation of the forest.
The end of the conflict with the FARC-EP is an unmistakeable window of opportunity
to enhance development, in regions historically affected by poverty and armed conflict, like the
prioritized areas in the Colombian Amazon. Here one key question arises: i.) what kind of
development? Many different answers could be provided, nevertheless within the scope of the
research two emphases were identified. On the one hand, the discourse on the ‘peace dividends’
which understands the end of armed conflict as an opportunity for economic development
based on extractive activities guided by the energy-mining ‘locomotive’, on the other hand, the
possibility of establishing participatory development processes with a bottom-up approach that
has into account the communities while allowing the consolidation of new forms of territorial
ordering and land management.
It is considered that the PDETs will play a relevant role at the time to decide which
trend to stress. As political spaces and ad hoc policy mechanisms, the PDETs’ processes could
help to overcome discrepancies in the short-term at the communal and municipal levels.
Nonetheless, the ‘peace dividends’ discourse and the centralism that characterized Colombian
policy making would derive in an understanding of peace as an ‘opening’ to development,
designed and implemented from the centre.
Hence, determining to what extent the Colombian Amazon forest coverage could
change during the post-agreement period is related with the above-mentioned emphases. In
both, a stable state presence is a necessary condition to succeed.

VI. Final thoughts and considerations
Large parts of the world of today consist of a centre exploiting a vast periphery
and also our common heritage, the biosphere. The ideal we need is a harmonized
co-operative world in which each part is a centre, living at the expense of nobody
else, in partnership with nature and in solidarity with future generations.
The Cocoyoc-Declaration. 23. October 1974.22
Peace, justice and the preservation of creation are three

absolutely interconnected themes, which cannot be separated
and treated individually without once again falling into reductionism
Conference of Dominican Bishops. 1987.23
By enhancing the understanding of the linkages between territories, post-agreement and

deforestation in Colombia, this research highlighted challenges and opportunities for the
Colombian Amazon forest. Regarding territoriality, protected areas are curbing deforestation,
However, its eventual expansion during the post-agreement transition must be accompanied by
adequate financing that derives in its proper management. This is evident in those cases where
the lack of PAs’ management capacities allows the expansion of illicit crops within the PNN.
Although deforestation associated with illicit crops and illegal economies has been
extensively studied and documented, this is not the case in the case of extensive cattle ranching,
which is the main driver of deforestation in the country and has almost completely transformed
the Caribbean and Andean biomes. Pasture and grasslands represent the most land-use conflicts
in the country. Their expansion in the Amazonian biome is relatively low compared with other
biomes, but still, represent the main driver of deforestation in the region.
Concerning the relationship between armed conflict and deforestation, one of the main
results of this research can be identified as follow: contrary to expectations and government
discourse, it was evident that greater relative transformation of the forest is originated in areas
of a low incidence of armed conflict and from activities not necessarily related to illegality.
In addition, it was possible to establish that the armed conflict slowed to some extent
the transformation of the forests, which empirically supports the "gunpoint conservation"
approaches. Future research could be done in deepening the understanding of this trend. The
extent to which this is the result of armed coercion or the establishment of environmental
22
UNEP/UNCTAD Symposium on Patterns of Resource Use, Environment and Development strategies
23
Pastoral Letter Sobre la relación del hombre con la naturaleza (21 January 1987).

VI. Final thoughts and considerations
norms of coexistence has yet to be determined. These relationships should be explored in

greater detail by differentiating: i). the type of armed actors and ii). specific regions.
The PDETs should be understood as scenarios of dialogue and negotiation aimed at
reaching new political agreements along communities, authorities and other stakeholders. Due
to the PDETs’ bottom-up development and because communities are primarily affected by land
use conflicts and their implications, the probability of communities pushing up environmental
considerations into the PDETs’ agenda setting is considerable.
In this way, the post-agreement scenario represents an opportunity to combine socio-
economic priorities with conservation and biodiversity concerns. Given the lack of resources in
the environmental sector in Colombia, raising awareness of biodiversity threats and identifying
productive alternatives based on the goods and services provided by forests can be a successful
alternative for the current well-designed environmental policies but never implemented due the
lack of resources, capacity and enforcement, both, at local and national levels.
In terms of reconciliation and peaceful coexistence, given that Territorial Areas for
Capacity-building and Reincorporation (ETCR) are located near protected areas, those could be
spaces for dialogue between conflict-affected communities and ex-combatants in where
conservation initiatives could help to consolidate peacebuilding while protecting forests.
The end of the armed conflict with the FARC-EP does not constitute a post-conflict
scenario throughout the country. Insisting in the peace negotiations with the ELN, as well as
the clarification of the environmental leaders’ killings, are necessary conditions for a lasting
peace in the territories. The new post-agreement scenario is highlighting the problems
historically experienced by rural communities, is also opening the door for solving the structural
causes of armed conflict in the prioritized municipalities, but those changes cannot be reached if
the life remains uncertain.
Finally, one major concern need to be addressed in further researches and policy
processes is: what would happen with the municipalities outside the PDETs prioritization? Are
they more vulnerable to an intensification of armed conflict or to forest transformation? Even
more so if we consider that more than the half of the Amazon municipalities were not
prioritized within the PDETs framework and that about 85% of Colombian municipalities are
not part of them either.

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VIII. Appendixes
Appendix 1. Departments of Colombia
Source: Golbez, n.d.

VIII. Appendixes
Appendix 2. Armed Conflict Incidence Index Variables
Variable Definition Source

Armed actions They are offensive armed actions committed by armed Observatory of Human
groups within the territory of a State, whose purpose is Rights (HR) and
to attack and weaken the military structures of the International Human
opposing side (Observatory of the Presidential Rights (IHR), General
Program of HR and IHR, 2010). This variable includes Command of the Military
the following actions: fighting, bombing, ambushes, Forces and the Police
harassment, attacks on the population, attacks on
public security facilities and attacks on infrastructure
and property, and acts of terrorism.
Homicide It is all violent death caused by any type of weapon National Police
except for those committed in traffic accidents
(National Police, 2016)
Kidnapping It is the action of snatching, subtracting, retaining or Ministry of Defense
hiding a person for any purpose (Law 599 of 2000)
Antipersonnel Mines Corresponds to the number of victims of accidents Directorate for Integral
caused by Antipersonnel Mines (MAP) Action against
Antipersonnel Mines
(DAICMA)
Forced displacement Action in which a person or community is forced to Unit for the integral
migrate within the national territory, leaving their attention and reparation
locality of residence or habitual economic activities, of the victims
because their life, their physical integrity, their security
or personal freedom have been violated or they are
directly threatened, with any of the following
situations: internal armed conflict, internal
disturbances and tensions, generalized violence,
massive violations of Human Rights, breaches of
International Humanitarian Law or other
circumstances arising from previous situations that
may alter or drastically alter public order (Law 1448 of
2011).
Coca crops Areas planted with coca crops, primary component for Integrated Illicit Crop
cocaine production Monitoring System
(SIMCI)
Source: DNP, 2016, p. 5

VIII. Appendixes
Appendix 3. Armed Conflict Incidence Index and Relative Forest Cover Loss by Departments
and Categories 2002-2005; 2006-2009 and 2010-2013
2002 - 2005
Relative Forest Armed Conflict
RFCL Categories ACII Categories
Cover Loss Incidence Index
Amazonas 0,04% Low 0,004 Low
Antioquia 4,42% High 0,044 High
Arauca 4,74% High 0,097 Very High
Atlántico 16,46% Very High 0,005 Low
Bolivar 3,68% High 0,025 Medium-Low
Boyacá 1,39% Medium-Low 0,010 Low
Córdoba 5,17% Very High 0,034 Low
Caldas 1,44% High 0,088 Medium
Caquetá 3,12% Medium-Low 0,068 Very High
Casanare 1,20% Medium 0,022 Very High
Cauca 15,28% Medium-Low 0,046 Medium-Low
Cesar 0,35% Very High 0,033 High
Chocó 5,58% Low 0,007 Medium
Cundinamanca 3,75% High 0,019 Medium-Low
Guainía 0,08% Low 0,008 Low
Guaviare 0,84% Low 0,081 Very High
Huila 1,76% Medium-Low 0,021 Medium-Low
La Guajira 10,38% Very High 0,032 Medium
Magdalena 7,43% Very High 0,019 Medium-Low
Meta 2,70% Medium 0,089 Very High
Nariño 1,29% Medium-Low 0,022 Medium-Low
Norte de Santander 2,07% Medium 0,041 High
Putumayo 1,90% Medium 0,065 Very High
Quindío 4,54% High 0,019 Medium-Low
Risaralda 2,45% Medium 0,030 Medium
Santander 5,48% Very High 0,016 Low
Sucre 10,20% Very High 0,027 Medium-Low
Tolima 2,76% Medium 0,026 Medium-Low
Valle del Cauca 1,22% Medium-Low 0,024 Medium-Low
Vaupés 0,17% Low 0,017 Low
Vichada 0,59% Low 0,010 Low

VIII. Appendixes
2006 - 2009
Antioquia 5,27% High 0,044 Medium
Bolivar 5,18% High 0,025 Medium
Córdoba 5,57% Very High 0,034 Medium-Low
Caldas 2,10% High 0,088 Medium
Casanare 1,50% High 0,022 High
Cauca 19,42% Medium-Low 0,046 Medium
Cesar 0,49% Very High 0,033 Medium-Low
Chocó 6,90% Low 0,007 Medium
Cundinamanca 5,63% High 0,019 Low
Huila 2,75% Medium 0,021 Medium-Low
La Guajira 12,27% Very High 0,032 Medium-Low
Magdalena 8,16% Very High 0,019 Low
Nariño 1,43% Medium-Low 0,022 High
Putumayo 1,86% Medium-Low 0,065 Very High
Quindío 4,17% Medium 0,019 Medium
Risaralda 2,44% Medium 0,030 Medium
Sucre 17,48% Very High 0,027 Low
Tolima 4,53% Medium 0,026 Medium
Valle del Cauca 1,53% Medium-Low 0,024 Medium
Vaupés 0,16% Low 0,017 Medium-Low
Vichada 0,42% Low 0,010 Medium

VIII. Appendixes
2010 - 2014
Antioquia 5,04% High 0,014 Medium
Bolivar 5,27% High 0,007 Medium-Low
Córdoba 5,78% Very High 0,006 Medium-Low
Caldas 1,57% High 0,043 Medium-Low
Casanare 1,50% High 0,028 Medium
Cauca 14,19% Medium-Low 0,006 Very High
Cesar 0,52% Very High 0,022 Low
Chocó 7,09% Low 0,011 High
Cundinamanca 4,48% High 0,003 Low
Huila 2,29% Medium 0,011 Medium-Low
La Guajira 9,97% Very High 0,007 Medium-Low
Magdalena 5,21% Very High 0,003 Low
Nariño 0,95% Medium-Low 0,021 High
Putumayo 2,20% Medium-Low 0,047 Very High
Quindío 6,13% Medium 0,009 Medium-Low
Risaralda 3,10% Medium 0,010 Medium-Low
Sucre 13,94% Very High 0,003 Low
Tolima 3,18% Medium 0,011 Medium-Low
Valle del Cauca 1,67% Medium-Low 0,017 Medium
Vaupés 0,19% Low 0,006 Medium-Low
Vichada 0,30% Low 0,007 Medium-Low

VIII. Appendixes
Declaration of Honour
Word of Honour
I, Luis Carlos Cote Rojas, herewith certify that in the course of preparing this Master’s Thesis
did not consult the help of another person or made use of a different source other than the
ones stated above. I have indicated the positions where I adopted the exact or abstract content
of a source and credited its origin. This document has never been presented to any other
examination board in this or any similar format. I am aware of the fact that any false declaration
will lead to legal consequences.
September 5, 2017

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WILL PEACE

Luis Carlos Cote Rojas

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016

A thesis presented to the

In partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 iii

Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................... iii

I. Introduction. Why and What Is the Research For? ...................................................... - 7 -

Declaration of Honour ..................................................................................................... - 67 -

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 iv

ACII Armed Conflict Incidence Index

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 v

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 vi

Figure 1. The Colombian Amazon Forest. 2012 ................................................................... - 8 -

Box 1. The Development Programmes with a Territorial-Based Approach (PDETs) .......... - 10 -

Table 1. Development Programmes with a Territorial-Based Approach in the Colombian

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 vii

Environment is at the heart of post-conflict development in Colombia.

Last 25th of June, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People's Army

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016

socio-economic priorities during the post-agreement, in order to attain a sustainable territorial

a. The importance of the Colombian Amazon

Source: SINCHI, 2016

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 -8-

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 -9-

b. Research purpose: What is this research for?

• Establish exploratory trends of the deforestation and armed conflict relationship

From a critical perspective, problematizing the relationship between deforestation and

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 - 10 -

Approach in the Colombian Amazon as a policy opportunity to stop deforestation in their

d. Organization of this manuscript

By exploring the academic attention in Colombia to the research problem, Chapter II

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 - 11 -

Forests are often frontiers, and like all frontiers,

a. Territoriality and deforestation

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 - 13 -

Figure 2. Land use in Colombia.

Within the framework of the

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 - 14 -

Furthermore, in some regions, like the Amazon ‘piedemonte’ the FARC-EP

c. ‘Post-conflict’ and deforestation

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 - 15 -

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 - 16 -

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 - 17 -

Die Philosophen haben die Welt nur verschieden interpretiert;

a. Understanding complexity: theory and praxis

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016

b. Data, methods and research process

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 - 19 -

Index; the environmental management capacity is operationalized as the Environmental

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016 - 20 -

The concept of “green growth” is part of our economic development model

The crisis [of the capitalist social order] is socioenvironmental

a. Legal environmental framework and commitment with deforestation goals

Box 2. Regional Autonomous Corporations Following the environmental

Source: Adapted from www.theredddesk.org university sector among other institutions.

Beneficiario COLFUTURO 2016

Figure 4. Chart of the National Environmental System (SINA).

Source: PNGIBSE, 2012

The current National Development Plan (2014-2018) established several goals