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Bale, Jeffrey M. - 'Conspiracy Theories' and Clandestine Politics - Lobster
Bale, Jeffrey M. - 'Conspiracy Theories' and Clandestine Politics - Lobster
Bale, Jeffrey M. - 'Conspiracy Theories' and Clandestine Politics - Lobster
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For decades scholars interested in politics have directed their attention toward
explicating and evaluating the merits of various political theories, or toward
analyzing the more conventional, formal, and overt aspects of practical politics.
Even a cursory examination of standard social science bibliographies reveals
that tens of thousands of books and articles have been written about staple
subjects such as the structure and functioning of government bureaucracies,
voting patterns and electoral results, parliamentary procedures and activities,
party organizations and factions, the impact of constitutional provisions or
laws, and the like. In marked contrast, only a handful of scholarly publications
have been devoted to the general theme of political conspiracies — as opposed
to popular anti-conspiracy treatises, which are very numerous, and specific
case studies of events in which conspiratorial groups have played some role —
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and virtually all of these concern themselves with the deleterious social impact
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Only the academic literature dealing with specialized topics like espionage,
covert action, political corruption, terrorism, an revolutionary warfare touches
upon clandestine and covert political activities on a more or less regular basis,
probably because such activities cannot be avoided when dealing with these
topics. But the analyses and information contained therein are rarely
incorporated into standard works of history and social science, and much of
that specialized literature is itself unsatisfactory. Hence there is an obvious
need to place the study of conspiratorial politics on a sound theoretical,
methodological, and empirical footing, since ignoring the influence of such
politics can lead to severe errors of historical interpretation.
This situation can only be remedied when a clear-cut analytical distinction has
been made between classic conspiracy theories and the more limited
conspiratorial activities that are a regular feature of politics. ‘Conspiracy
theories’ share a number of distinguishing characteristics, but in all of them the
essential element is a belief in the existence of a ‘vast, insidious,
preternaturally effective international conspiratorial network designed to
perpetrate acts of the most fiendish character’, acts which aim to ‘undermine
and destroy a way of life.'(6) Although this apocalyptic conception is generally
regarded nowadays as the fantastic product of a paranoid mindset, in the past
it was often accepted as an accurate description of reality by large numbers of
people from all social strata, including intellectuals and heads of state.(7) The
fact that a belief in sinister, all-powerful conspiratorial forces has not been
restricted to small groups of clinical paranoids and mental defectives suggests
that it fulfils certain important social functions and psychological needs.(8)
First of all, like many other intellectual constructs, conspiracy theories help to
make complex patterns of cause-and-effect in human affairs more
comprehensible by means of reductionism and over simplification. Secondly,
they purport to identify the underlying source of misery and injustice in the
world, thereby accounting for current crises and upheavals and explaining why
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ability to control the course of future historical developments. After all, if evil
conspirators are consciously causing undesirable changes, the implication is
that others, perhaps through the adoption of similar techniques, may also
consciously intervene to protect a threatened way of life or otherwise alter the
historical process. In short, a belief in conspiracy theories helps people to
make sense out of a confusing, inhospitable reality, rationalize their present
difficulties, and partially assuage their feelings of powerlessness. In this sense,
it is no different than any number of religious, social, or political beliefs, and is
deserving of the same serious study.
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large; and indeed it is this very cohesion and singleness of purpose which
enables them to effectively execute their plans to destroy existing institutions,
seize power, and eliminate all opposition.
Finally, for conspiracy theorists conspiracies are not simply a regular feature of
politics whose importance varies in different historical contexts, but rather the
motive force of all historical change and development. The conspiratorial group
can and does continually alter the course of history, invariably in negative and
destructive ways, through conscious planning and direct intervention. Its
members are not buffeted about by structural forces beyond their control and
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understanding, like everyone else, but are themselves capable of controlling
events more or less at will. This OK Privacyability
supposed policy is usually attributed to some
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Black holes
‘Conspiracy theories are like black holes — they suck in everything that comes
their way, regardless of content or origin……….. Everything you’ve ever known
or experienced, no matter how “meaningless”, once it contacts the
conspiratorial universe, is enveloped by and cloaked in sinister significance.
‘(12)
As an example of this sort of mechanism, one has only to mention the so-
called ‘umbrella man’, a man who opened up an umbrella on a sunny day in
Dealey Plaza just as President John F. Kennedy’s motorcade was passing. A
number of ‘conspiracy theorists’ have assumed that this man was signalling to
the assassins, thus tying a seemingly trivial and inconsequential act into the
alleged plot to kill Kennedy. It is precisely this totalistic, all-encompassing
quality that distinguishes ‘conspiracy theories’ from the secret but often
mundane political planning that is carried out on a daily basis by all sorts of
groups, both within and outside of government. It should, however, be pointed
out that even if the ‘umbrella man’ was wholly innocent of any involvement in
a plot, as he almost certainly was, this does not mean that the Warren
Commission’s reconstruction of the assassination is accurate.
However that may be, real covert politics, although by definition hidden or
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embodying metaphysical evil, they are perfectly and recognizably human, with
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all the positive and negative characteristics and potentialities which that
implies. At the most basic level, all the efforts of individuals privately to plan
and secretly initiate actions for their own perceived mutual benefit — insofar as
these are intentionally withheld from outsiders and require the maintenance of
secrecy for their success — are conspiracies. Moreover, in contrast to the
claims of conspiracy theorists, covert politics are anything but monolithic. At
any given point in time, there are dozens if not thousands of competitive
political and economic groups engaging in secret planning and activities, and
most are doing so in an effort to gain some advantage over their rivals among
the others. Such behind-the-scene operations are present on every level, from
the mundane efforts of small-scale retailers to gain competitive advantage by
being the first to develop new product lines to the crucially important attempts
by rival secret services to penetrate and manipulate each other. Sometimes the
patterns of these covert rivalries and struggles are relatively stable over time,
whereas at other times they appear fluid and kaleidoscopic, as different groups
secretly shift alliances and change tactics in accordance with their perceived
interests. Even internally, within particular groups operating clandestinely,
there are typically bitter disagreements between various factions over the
specific courses of action to be adopted. Unanimity of opinion and complete
solidarity are not possible in any organization, though ruthless purges can
temporarily contribute to that impression.
Given these great disparities and divergences in range and power, it is obvious
that actual conspiracies operate at varying levels of effectiveness. Although
they are a typical facet of social and political life, in the overall scheme of
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things most conspiracies are narrow in scope, restricted in their effects, and of
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limited historical significance. But is notpolicy
always the case. It should be
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obvious that whenever powerful political figures engage in secret planning, the
impact of their decisions on others will be correspondingly greater and more
difficult to resist. Therefore, when such influential figures meet to hatch and
coordinate plots, these plots may well have a disproportionate impact on the
course of events, and hence a broader historical significance. There is nothing
mysterious about this, however. It is simply a covert reflection of existing and
sometimes readily visible power relations, and should be recognized as such.
The Protocols
Perhaps the easiest and quickest way to clarify the distinction between
‘conspiracy theories’ and genuine conspiracies is by reference to the notorious
anti-Semitic tract, the Protocols of the Elders of Zion. This document, which
purports to be the minutes from a secret meeting of a conspiratorial Jewish
leadership group aiming to take control over the world, has played a major role
in stirring up fears of a Zionist conspiracy and catalyzing repressive actions
against Jewish communities throughout Europe and beyond since its
appearance in the late nineteenth century. Even today, it continues to be cited
by conspiracy mongers and anti-Semites of all stripes as proof that there is a
secret Jewish cabal which is carefully planning and directing worldwide efforts
to subvert and destroy all that is good in the world of the goyim.
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No monolithic conspiracy
No sensible person would claim, for example, that the Soviet secret police has
not been involved in a vast array of covert operations since the establishment
of the Soviet Union, or that international front groups controlled by the Russian
Communist Party have not systematically engaged in worldwide penetration
and propaganda campaigns. It is nonetheless true that scholars have often
hastened to denyWethe
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They do exist
If someone were to say, for example, that a secret masonic lodge in Italy had
infiltrated all of the state’s security agencies and was involved in promoting or
exploiting acts of neo-fascist terrorism in order to condition the political system
and strengthen its own hold over the levers of government, most newspaper
readers would probably assume that they were joking or accuse them of
having taken leave of their senses. Ten years ago I might have had the same
reaction myself. Nevertheless, although the above statement oversimplifies a
far more complex pattern of interaction between the public and private
spheres, such a lodge in fact existed. It was known as Loggia Massonica
Propaganda Due (P2), was affiliated with the Grand Orient branch of Italian
masonry, and was headed by a former fascist militiaman named Licio Gelli.(13)
In all probability something like P2 still exists today in an altered form, even
though the lodge was officially outlawed in 1982. Likewise, with the claim that
an Afrikaner secret society, founded in the second decade of this century, had
played a key role in establishing the system of apartheid in South Africa, and in
the process helped to ensure the preservation of ultra-conservative Afrikaner
cultural values and Afrikaner political dominance until 199. Yet this
organization also existed. It was known as the Afrikaner Broederbond (AB),
and it formed a powerful ‘state within a state’ in that country by virtue, among
other things, of its unchallenged control over the security services. 14 There is
no doubt that specialists on contemporary Italian politics who fail to take
account of the activities of P2, like experts on South Africa who ignore the AB,
are missing an important dimension of political life there. Nevertheless, neither
of these two important organizations has been thoroughly investigated by
academics. In these instances, as is so often the case, investigative journalists
have done most of the truly groundbreaking preliminary research.
The above remarks are not meant to suggest that conspiratorial groups are the
propulsive force We
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are capable of
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believe. For one thing, no group of individuals has that capability, no matter
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how powerful they are. Fortunately for the rest of us, even powerful human
beings are inherently flawed creatures who regularly commit errors of
judgement and other sorts of blunders. They not only have to cope with the
formidable problem of unforeseen and unintended consequences, but also have
to contend with other powerful groups with broader social forces which are
difficult if not impossible to control, and with deep-rooted structural and
cultural constraints which place limits on how much they are able to
accomplish. Moreover, to attribute that degree of power and influence to secret
conspirators would be to commit what David Hackett Fischer has dubbed the
‘furtive fallacy’: that is, to embrace the idea that everything tht is truly
significant happens behind the scenes. On the other hand, Fischer goes too far
in the other direction when he implies that only that which is above board is
worth considering and that nothing that happens in the shadows has real
significance.(15) To accept those unstated propositions uncritically could induce
a person, among other things, to overlook the bitter nineteenth century
struggle between political secret societies (or, at least, between revolutionaries
using non-political secret societies as a ‘cover’) and the political police of
powerful states like Austria and Russia, to minimize the role played by
revolutionary vanguard parties in the Russian and communist Chinese
revolutions, or to deny that powerful intelligence services like the CIA and the
KGB have fomented coups and intervened massively in the internal affairs of
other sovereign states since the end of World War II. In short, it might well
lead to the misinterpretation or falsification of history on a grand scale.
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1. This is part of the introductory chapter to Bale’s PhD thesis, The ‘Black’
Terrorist International: Neo-Fascist Paramilitary Networks and the
‘Strategy of Tension’ in Italy, 1968-1974, University of California at
Berkeley, 1994.
2. Compare Robin Ramsay, “Conspiracy, Conspiracy Theories and
Conspiracy Research”, Lobster 19 (1990), p. 25:
“
‘In intellectually respectable company it is necessary to preface any
reference to actual political, economic, military or paramilitary
conspiracies with the disclaimer that the speaker “doesn’t believe in the
conspiracy theory of history (or politics)”‘.
3. The word ‘suppress’ is not too strong here. I personally know of one case
in which a very bright graduate student at a prestigious East Coast
university was unceremoniously told by his advisor that if he wanted to
write a Ph.D. thesis on an interesting historical example of conspiratorial
politics he would have to go elsewhere to do so. He ended up leaving
academia altogether and became a professional journalist, in which
capacity he has produced a number of interesting books and articles.
4. Complaints about this general academic neglect have often been made
by those few scholars who have done research on key aspects of covert
and clandestine politics which are directly relevant to this study. See, for
example, Gary Marx, ‘Thoughts on a Neglected Category of Social
Movement Participant: The Agent Provocateur and the Informant’,
American Journal of Sociology 80:2 (September 1974), especially pp.
402-3. One of the few dissertations dealing directly with this topic,
though not in a particularly skilful fashion, is Frederick A. Hoffman,
‘Secret Roles and Provocation: Covert Operations in Movements for
Social Change’ (Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation: UCLA Sociology
Department, 1979). There are, of course, some excellent academic
studies which
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Nurit Schleifman, Undercover Agents in the Russian Revolutionary
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Movement: The SR Party, 1902-1914 (Basingstoke: Macmillan/ St.
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14. For the AB, see Ivor Wilkins and Hans Strydom, The Super-Afrikaners:
Inside the Afrikaner Broederbond (Johannesburg: Jonathan Ball, 1978);
and J.H.P. Serfontein, Brotherhood of Power: An Expose of the Secret
Afrikaner Broederbond (Bloomington and London: Indiana University,
1978).
15. See his Historians’ Fallacies: Toward a Logic of Historical Thought (New
York: Harper & Row, 1970), pp. 74-8.
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