EQUITY RESEARCH

UNVR - Results update - 12 February 2024

CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

HOLD Unilever Indonesia

FY23 results miss expectations
TP: Rp2,900 (-11.3%)

Sector Consumer Weak sales leads to net profit falling

Unilever Indonesia (UNVR) reported 4Q23 net profit of Rp612 bn (-57.2% QoQ, -18.7% YoY),
Bloomberg Ticker UNVR IJ
bringing the cumulative 2023 net profit to Rp4.8 bn (-10.5% YoY), which was below the
Share Price Performance
consensus estimates of 86% run-rate and our 2023F of 84% run-rate. Sales dropped -
16.3% YoY and -20.6% QoQ in 4Q23 as consumers avoided the brands of multinational
Last price (Rp) 3,270 companies in response to the geopolitical situation. This led to 2023 sales decline by -6.3%
Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 45.9/2.9 YoY to Rp38.6 tn, which came below at 89%/94% of our 2023F and consensus estimates,
respectively. Domestic sales (~97% of total sales) declined -5.2% YoY in 2023, dragged
3m 6m 12m
down by lower underlying volume/price growth -4.1%/-1.1%, respectively, while export
Absolute (%) -16.7 -19.2 -15.3 sales fell by -30.8% YoY. Gross profit margin down 2.1% pts QoQ, but still expand 5.8% pts
Relative to JCI (%) -23.5 -25.0 -15.2 YoY to 48.4% in 4Q23 due to tailwind of declining commodity prices and factory
automation. Opex went down YoY, mainly due to lower selling expenses and ETS. The A&P
52w High/Low price (Rp) 4,630/2,940
expenses in 4Q23 reached Rp821 bn (10.1% of sales), which came higher than 7.2%/5.5%
of 2023/2022 total sales as the company is committed to long term brand equity
investment and increase growth in competitiveness. As a result, EBIT margin was 10.2% in
5,000 5%
4,500 0% 4Q23 (vs. 17.9%/10.9% in 3Q23/4Q22). As of end-Dec, the company turned into a net cash
4,000 -5%
3,500 -10%
position of Rp1 tn.
3,000 -15%
2,500 -20%
2,000 -25% Expect continued slow sales growth, navigate geopolitical headwinds
1,500 -30%
1,000 -35% The impact of the boycott movement on several brands has been more pronounced,
500 -40% particularly in countries with large Muslim populations. Since November 23, UNVR has
May-23
Feb-23

Feb-24
Nov-23
Aug-23

seen a 26% drop in its key brand sales run rate compared to its normal run rate, and even
worse in December 23. In order to regain its footing after the boycotts, the company is
undertaking several initiatives, including: i) clarifying its stance towards key distribution
UNVR IJ 1yr Rel. to JCI (RHS)
channels (MT and DT), ii) ensuring halal certification in stores and mass media, iii) raising
awareness in the community about forms of misinformation. This strategy has proved
fruitful as the company has seen improvements in consumer acceptance, leading to a
Outstanding shrs (mn) 38,150 recovery in the sales run rate, which reached 92% on 24 January. Nevertheless, it is worth
noting that we remain cautious on the potential sales decline in 1Q24F due to the
Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/USDmn) 124,751/7,993
uncertainty surrounding consumer preferences for foreign brands and the fact that
Estimated free float (%) 15.0 UNVR's sales were least affected by election spending..
Major shareholders
Maintain Hold rating with lower TP of Rp2,900/sh
Unilever Indonesia 85.0%
We cut 2024F/2025F EPS by -10%/-8% as we adjust our sales forecasts to reflect the
Public 15.0% backlash from escalating tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over domestic
demand recovery, along with the ongoing downside trend. This results in a lower TP of Rp
2,900 (prev. Rp 3,900), which is based on 21.7x 2024F PE or -2 std. below the 3-year
average. Our new TP offers limited upside potential, hence we maintain our Hold rating.
EPS Consensus
Our 2024F sales and earnings forecasts remain below pre-COVID levels, as the company's
Ciptadana Cons. % Diff recovery trajectory is hampered by fierce competition. The upside risk is higher-than-
expected margin expansion, while the downside risk is no improvement in sales and gross
2024F 133.9 155.3 -13.8
margin.
2025F 139.2 164.6 -15.4
2026F 143.0 177.3 -19.3 Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights
Year to 31 Dec 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Revenue (Rpbn) 41,219 38,611 39,328 40,564 41,766
Operating profit (Rpbn) 7,221 6,279 6,600 6,853 7,029
Net profit (Rpbn) 5,516 4,801 5,107 5,311 5,455
EPS (Rp) 144.6 125.8 133.9 139.2 143.0
EPS growth (%) -4.2 -13.0 6.4 4.0 2.7
Putu Chantika Putri EV/EBITDA (x) 14.5 16.4 15.7 15.1 14.6
+62 21 2557 4800 ext. 740 PER (x) 21.6 24.9 24.4 23.4 22.8
putriputu@ciptadana.com PBV (x) 29.9 35.3 30.4 27.2 24.9
Dividend yield (%) 4.3 4.3 3.8 4.1 4.2

http://www.ciptadana.com ROE (%) 138.0 142.0 130.0 121.1 113.7

Source : UNVR, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
UNVR - Results update - 12 February 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 2: FY23 Results

UNVR (in Rp Bn) 12M23 12M22 YoY 4Q23 3Q23 QoQ 2023F 12M/23F

Revenue 38,611 41,219 -6.3% 8,106 10,214 -20.6% 43,157 89%

COGS -19,417 -22,154 -12.4% -4,185 -5,057 -17.2%
Gross profit 19,195 19,065 0.7% 3,921 5,157 -24.0% 21,735 88%
Gross profit margin(%) 49.7% 46.3% 3.5% 48.4% 50.5% -2.1% 50.4%

Opex -12,915 -11,995 7.7% -3,097 -3,328 -6.9%

Operating Profit 6,279 7,070 -11.2% 824 1,828 -55.0% 7,574 83%
Operating margin (%) 16.3% 17.2% -0.9% 10.2% 17.9% -7.7% 17.5%

Finance Cost -77 -75 3.2% -13 -11 16.4%

Others-net 0 -1 -107.5% 0 0 n/a

Pre-tax profit 6,202 6,994 -11.3% 811 1,817 -55.4% 7,409 84%
Tax -1,401 -1,629 -14.0% -199 -388 -48.7%
Pre-tax margin(%) 16.1% 17.0% -0.9% 10.0% 17.8% -7.8% 17.2%

Net Profit 4,801 5,365 -10.5% 612 1,430 -57.2% 5,689 84%
Net Margin(%) 12.4% 13.0% -0.6% 7.6% 14.0% -6.4% 13.2%

COGS 19,417 22,154 -12.4% 4,185 5,057 -17.2%

50% 54% 52% 50%
Raw materials 13,642 15,976 -14.6% 2,706 3,556 -23.9%
35% 39% 33% 35%
Other production 5,775 6,178 -6.5% 1,478.74 1,501 -1.5%
15% 15% 18% 15%

SE 8,996 8,451 6.4% 2,165 2,368 -8.6%

23% 21% 27% 23%
A&P 3,244 3,043 6.6% 821 888 -7.5%
8% 7% 10.1% 9%
Distribution 1,894 1,934 -2.1% 423 518 -18.4%
5% 5% 5% 5%
G&A 3,920 3,544 10.6% 932 960 -2.9%
10% 9% 11% 9%
ETS 2,912 2,626 10.9% 655 747 -12.4%
8% 6% 8% 7%
Opex/sales 33.4% 29.1% 4.3% 38.2% 32.6%

Source: Company, Ciptadana Sekuritas

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
UNVR - Results update - 12 February 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 3: Segmental Breakdown

(in Rp Bn) 12M23 12M22 YoY 4Q23 3Q23 QoQ

Consolidated Sales 38,611 41,219 -6.3% 8,106 10,214 -20.6%

Home&Personal Care Sales 25,150 27,256 -7.7% 5,228 6,671 -21.6%
Food & Refreshment Sales 13,461 13,963 -3.6% 2,877 3,543 -18.8%
COGS -19,417 -22,154 -12.4% -4,185 -5,057 -17.2%
Home&Personal Care -11,946 -14,167 -15.7% -2,599 -3,120 -16.7%
Food & Refreshment -7,471 -7,987 -6.5% -1,586 -1,937 -18.1%
Gross Profit 19,195 19,065 0.7% 3,921 5,157 -24.0%
Home&Personal Care 13,205 13,089 0.9% 2,630 3,551 -25.9%
Food & Refreshment 5,990 5,975 0.2% 1,291 1,606 -19.6%
OPEX -10,473 -9,980 4.9% -2,501 -2,730 -8.4%
Home&Personal Care -7,025 -6,803 3.3% -1,648 -1,837 -10.3%
Food & Refreshment -3,448 -3,177 8.5% -853 -893 -4.5%
Operating Profit 8,722 9,085 -4.0% 1,420 2,426 -41.5%
Home&Personal Care 6,179 6,287 -1.7% 982 1,714 -42.7%
Food & Refreshment 2,542 2,798 -9.1% 438 712 -38.6%
Operating Profit after
unallocated exp. 6,202 6,994 -11.3% 811 1,764 -54.0%
Unallocated SE -1,801 -1,452 24.1% -437 -497 -12.1%
unallocated G&A -719 -639 12.4% -172 -165 3.9%
GPM 49.7% 46.3% 3.5% 48.4% 50.5% -2.1%
Home&Personal Care 52.5% 48.0% 4.5% 50.3% 53.2% -2.9%
Food & Refreshment 44.5% 42.8% 1.7% 44.9% 45.3% -0.5%
OPM 22.6% 22.0% 0.5% 17.5% 23.8% -6.2%
Home&Personal Care 24.6% 23.1% 1.5% 18.8% 25.7% -6.9%
Food & Refreshment 18.9% 20.0% -1.2% 15.2% 20.1% -4.9%
Sales Breakdown
Home&Personal Care Sales 65.1% 66.1% -1.0% 64.5% 65.3% -0.8%
Food & Refreshment Sales 34.9% 33.9% 1.0% 35.5% 34.7% 0.8%
Source: Company, Ciptadana Sekuritas

Exhibit 4: Forecast changes

(in Rp Bn) Old Forecast New Forecast Forecast Changes
2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F
Revenue 43,327 45,118 39,328 40,564 -9% -10%
COGS -21,710 -21,163 -19,479 -20,079 -10% -5%
Gross profit 21,617 23,956 19,849 20,485 -8% -14%
Gross profit margin(%) 49.9% 53.1% 50.5% 50.5% 0.6% -2.6%

Operating Profit 7,759 8,553 6,600 6,853 -15% -20%

Operating margin(%) 17.9% 19.0% 16.8% 16.9% -1.1% -2.1%

Pre-tax profit 7,594 8,298 6,600 6,867 -13% -17%

Pre-tax margin (%) 17.5% 18.4% 16.8% 16.9% -0.7% -1.5%

Net Profit 5,924 6,472 5,107 5,311 -14% -18%

Net Margin (%) 13.7% 14.3% 13.0% 13.1% -0.7% -1.3%

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
UNVR - Results update - 12 February 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 5: Market share per business

Value Volume
Business Units
Market growth ULI growth Market growth ULI growth
Personal care 3.3% 2.9% -1.4% -1.0%
Nutrition 1.8% 1.3% -1.0% 0.0%
Home care 0.8% -2.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Beauty and well being 5.0% -3.1% 0.3% -6.0%
Total exc. Ice cream 2.9% -0.4% -0.1% -0.7%

Source: Company, Ciptadana Sekuritas

Exhibit 6: Market share

38.0%
37.3%
36.8%

31.0% 31.3%
30.7%

FY22 YTD Oct-23 (before FY23

Fatwa)

Value Volume

Source: Company, Ciptadana Sekuritas

Exhibit 7: Sales run rate

Source: Company data

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
UNVR - Results update - 12 February 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 8: ESG
Company Description FMCG Company
Environmental
1. The company utilized environmentally-friendly raw
materials
2. Eight Unilever factories in Cikarang and Rungkut have
received a BLUE Proper rating
3. The company successfully reduced carbon emissions by
21% in 2022 by improving energy efficiency and
transitioning to renewable heat sources
4. The company utilized 2,904 of Post Consumer Recycled
Pastic (PCR) in Unilever product packaging in 2022
5. The company set up 4,000 waste banks in 50
cities/districts and 11 provinces in Indonesia and collect
28,633 tonnes of post consumption plastic waste
6. The company has reduced 5,500 tonnes of virgin plastic
content in their product packaging by 2022
7. The company launched ‘‘Generasi Pilah Plastik’’ campaign
8. The company is targeting to source 100% of electricity
from renewable sources by 2030
Social
1. Unilever has promoted healthy and clean living through
ESG-related various programs in 2022 such as Wall’s Happiness
opportunity or risk Project and Dental Education by Pepsodent
assessment 2. The company has provided Glow & Lovely Bintang
Scholarship program for 60 young Indonesian women
3. The company has launched the One Global Women
Empowerment platform in B20 Indonesia presidency
4. The company introduced the Academy of Empowered and
Digitally Advanced Women in MSMEs
5. The company have developed the “Sahabat Warung”
application to help small retailers partners to be more
productive
6. The company launched UniLead in 2022 to five
outstanding students with disabilities
7. The company aims to be a pioneer new models to provide
employee with flexible employment options by 2030
Governance
1. The Board of Commissioner (BOC) is assisted by the Audit
Committee and the Nomination and Remuneration to
supervise the Board of Directors (BOD)
2. Two of the six members of the BOC are female member
3. 50% of the Board of Director (BOD) are female member
4. All board of directors does not have any affiliations with
fellow members of the Board of Directors, or members of
the Board of Commissioners, nor with the ultimate
shareholder.

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
UNVR - Results update - 12 February 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 9 - Income Statement

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Revenue 41,219 38,611 39,328 40,564 41,766
COGS -22,154 -19,417 -19,479 -20,079 -20,724
Gross profit 19,065 19,195 19,849 20,485 21,042
Oper. expenses -11,844 -12,915 -13,248 -13,632 -14,013
Oper. profit 7,221 6,279 6,600 6,853 7,029
EBITDA 8,300 7,265 7,574 7,852 8,077
Interest income 10 29 39 54 68
Interest expense -85 -106 -40 -40 -40
Other income (exp.) -1 0 0 0 0
Pre-tax profit 7,145 6,202 6,600 6,867 7,057
Income tax -1,629 -1,401 -1,493 -1,556 -1,602
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit 5,516 4,801 5,107 5,311 5,455

Exhibit 10 - Balance Sheet

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Cash & cash equivalent 503 1,021 1,408 1,920 2,421
Acct, receivables 3,924 2,343 2,386 2,462 2,534
Inventory 2,625 2,422 2,430 2,505 2,585
Other curr, asset 515 406 407 418 430
Total current asset 7,568 6,192 6,632 7,305 7,971
Fixed assets - net 9,536 9,311 9,511 9,696 9,864
Other non-curr.asset 705 700 689 678 667
Total asset 18,318 16,664 17,245 18,045 18,820

ST debt + curr. maturity 636 210 0 0 0

Acct, payable 4,700 4,064 4,077 4,202 4,337
Advances received 0 0 0 0 0
Other curr. liab 7,107 6,951 6,973 7,188 7,419
Long term debt 648 541 626 615 641
Other non-curr, liab, 1,230 1,518 1,643 1,518 1,628
Total liabilities 14,321 13,283 13,318 13,658 14,024
Shareholder equity 3,997 3,381 3,927 4,386 4,796
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0
Total liab + SHE 18,318 16,664 17,245 18,045 18,820

Exhibit 11 - Per Share Data

Year to 31 Dec(Rp) 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
EPS 144.6 125.8 133.9 139.2 143.0
BVPS 104.8 88.6 102.9 115.0 125.7
DPS 133.4 134.0 119.6 127.2 132.2
FCF per share 197.8 171.6 129.7 140.2 144.6

Source : UNVR, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
UNVR - Results update - 12 February 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 12 - Cash Flow

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Net income 5,516 4,801 5,107 5,311 5,455
Depreciation 1,080 985 973 999 1,049
Chg in working cap. 1,269 1,435 -17 180 201
Other 75 77 0 -14 -28
CF-Oper activities 7,939 7,298 6,064 6,476 6,676

Capital expenditure -514 -760 -1,173 -1,184 -1,217

Others 120 7 59 59 59
CF-Investing activities -394 -753 -1,115 -1,126 -1,158

Net change in debt -1,453 -533 0 0 0

Net change in equity 0 0 0 0 0
Dividend payment -5,090 -5,112 -4,561 -4,852 -5,045
Other financing -749 -305 0 0 0
CF-Financing activities -7,367 -6,028 -4,561 -4,838 -5,017

Net cash flow 178 518 388 512 501

Cash - begin of the year 325 503 1,021 1,408 1,920
Cash - end of the year 503 1,021 1,408 1,920 2,421

Exhibit 13 - Key Ratios

Year to 31 Dec 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Growth
Revenue (%) 4.2 -6.3 1.9 3.1 3.0
Operating profit (%) -6.0 -13.0 5.1 3.8 2.6
Net profit (%) -4.2 -13.0 6.4 4.0 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross margin (%) 46.3 49.7 50.5 50.5 50.4
Operating margin (%) 17.5 16.3 16.8 16.9 16.8
EBITDA margin (%) 20.1 18.8 19.3 19.4 19.3
Net margin (%) 13.4 12.4 13.0 13.1 13.1
ROA (%) 30.1 28.8 29.6 29.4 29.0
ROE (%) 138.0 142.0 130.0 121.1 113.7
Liquidity Ratios
Current ratio (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
Quick ratio (x) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Cash conversion cycle (days) 39.6 33.7 29.7 30.1 30.0
Activity Ratio
Inventory turnover (days) 43.3 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5
Receivable turnover (days) 37.4 29.6 21.9 21.8 21.8
Payable turnover (days) 41.0 41.4 37.8 37.2 37.3
Solvency Ratio
Interest cover (x) 97.4 68.6 190.3 197.3 203.0
Debt to equity ratio (x) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Net debt to equity (x) 0.2 Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash

Source : UNVR, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
UNVR - Results update - 12 February 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

EQUITY RESEARCH

HEAD OF RESEARCH ECONOMIST ANALYST

Arief Budiman Renno Prawira Erni Marsella Siahaan, CFA
Strategy, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Economist Banking, Hospital
Construction, Oil & Gas and Shipping T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 735 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 919
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 819 E prawirarenno@ciptadana.com E siahaanerni@ciptadana.com
E budimanarief@ciptadana.com

ANALYST ANALYST ANALYST

Yasmin Soulisa Gani Thomas Radityo
Property, Plantations Telco, Tower, Media, Technology Coal, Metal Mining
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 799 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 734 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 795
E soulisayasmin@ciptadana.com E gani@ciptadana.com E radityothomas@ciptadana.com

ANALYST ANALYST ANALYST

Putu Chantika Putri Nicko Yosafat Muhammad Gibran
Consumer, Cigarette Retail, Pharmaceutical Cement, Poultry, Toll road
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 740 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 760 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 798
E putriputu@ciptadana.com E yosafatnicko@ciptadana.com E gibranmuhammad@ciptadana.com

TECHNICAL ANALYST RESEARCH ASSISTANT

Asrul Husni Sumarni
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 780 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 920
E husniasrul@ciptadana.com E sumarni@ciptadana.com

EQUITY SALES

DIRECTOR OF INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY SALES

Dadang Mulyana
Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59
Jakarta - 12190
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 838
F +62 21 2557 4900
E mulyanadadang@ciptadana.com

BRANCH OFFICES

JAKARTA - MANGGA DUA SURABAYA

Komplek Harco Mangga Dua Intiland Tower Surabaya
Rukan Blok C No.10 Ground Floor Suite 5 & 6
Jl. Mangga Dua Raya Jl. Panglima Sudirman 101-103
Jakarta - 10730 Surabaya - 60271
T +62 21 600 2850 T +62 31 534 3938
F +62 21 612 1049 F +62 31 534 3886

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
UNVR - Results update - 12 February 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Analyst Certification

Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the
companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not
and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.

Disclaimer

This report does not constitute an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security/instrument (i.e. securities mentioned herein or of the
same issuer and options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities), invitation to offer or recommendation to enter into any
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The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be
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Disclaimer: No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by PT CIPTADANA SECURITIES or any other member of the
Ciptadana Capital, including any other member of the Ciptadana Group of Companies from whom this document may be received, as to the
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