Curbing the ASF Outbreak in Mansalay: A Mathematical Modeling Approach to Predict and

Control the Spread

RESEARCH PLAN

CURBING THE ASF OUTBREAK IN MANSALAY: A MATHEMATICAL MODELING

APPROACH TO PREDICT AND CONTROL THE SPREAD

Fe del Mundo National High School

B. del Mundo, Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro

EVRIL P. PALOMAR

JESSZA C. BAJITA

IZZA M. PANER

RAJANI DELMA M. SALDANHA

MARK ALDRIN GAN

JOHN REY M. JOSON

RONILLE EVANNE DIMATULAC

JOHN ALEXANDER DE ROXAS

PETER M. SALIVIO

Adviser
 Curbing the ASF Outbreak in Mansalay: A Mathematical Modeling Approach to Predict and
Control the Spread
INTRODUCTION

Background of the study

There has been African swine fever (ASF) for over a century. ASF is a fatal and extremely

contagious illness that affects both domestic and feral pigs, wreaking havoc on the global pig

industry. In Kenya, ASF was initially documented in 1921. It expanded throughout various sub-

Saharan African nations in the ensuing decades, but it didn't leave the continent until 1957.

When African swine fever was discovered on a pig farm in Portugal in 1957, it made its way to

Europe. This disease was contained very rapidly by depopulating over 10,000 pigs. The epidemic

resurfaced in Portugal in 1960, just three years later, and quickly spread to Spain and France.

ASF first made its way to the Dominic Republic in 1978. The illness spread to Haiti in less than

a year, killing about half of the nation's pigs. In the Dominican Republic in 1980 and in Haiti in

1984, these governments collaborated with the USDA to completely eradicate ASF (Weir, 2022).

ASF is a devastating, deadly disease that would have a significant impact on U.S. livestock

producers, their communities and the economy if it were found here. This disease does not

currently have a vaccination or therapy. The only way to stop this disease is to depopulate all

affected or exposed swine herds. Both domestic and feral pigs of all ages are susceptible to the

highly contagious and fatal viral disease known as African swine fever. ASF cannot be

transferred from pigs to humans and poses no health risk to people. There is no problem with

food safety.

METHODOLOGY
 Curbing the ASF Outbreak in Mansalay: A Mathematical Modeling Approach to Predict and
Control the Spread
The procedure for this study will start on investigating the prediction and development of

effective control strategies. The data collected from four distinct month samples— October (Set

A), November (Set B), December (Set C), and January (Set D) —will undergo a systematic

observation.

The data will be systematically organized and presented in a clear and concise manner,

with graphs and charts aiding in the visualization of trends and patterns. Each step of the analysis

will adhere to established statistical standards, ensuring the robustness and reliability of the

findings.

Throughout the process, we will maintain transparency in our methods and

interpretations, providing a comprehensive understanding of the mathematical model and

behavior of the African Swine Flu.

 Curbing the ASF Outbreak in Mansalay: A Mathematical Modeling Approach to Predict and
Control the Spread

RATIONALE

This research study wants to ascertain the mathematical model that shows the precise

formula for the African Swine Flu or ASF outbreak in Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro, Philippines.

For more findings, we will introduce first the origin of this study. ASF is a fatal and extremely

contagious illness that affects both domestic and feral pigs, wreaking havoc on the global pig

industry. In Kenya, ASF was initially documented in 1921. It expanded throughout various sub-

Saharan African nations in the ensuing decades, but it didn’t leave the continent until 1957.

When African swine fever was discovered on a pig farm in Portugal in 1957, it made its way to

Europe. This disease was contained very rapidly by depopulating over 10,000 pigs. The epidemic

resurfaced in Portugal in 1960, just three years later, and quickly spread to Spain and France.

Moreover, African Swine Flu is a highly contagious and deadly viral disease affecting both

domestic and feral swine of all ages. ASF is not a threat to human health and cannot be

transmitted from pigs to humans. It is not a food safety issue.

Practically, this study holds a potential applications in controlling the propagation of the

flu. These findings can provide researchers an all-inclusive formula that has accurate and reliable

information. In summary, the rationale of this research study is rooted in a desire to uncover

potential mathematical model. This research may help to explain and to study the effects of

different components, and to make predictions about behavior.

 Curbing the ASF Outbreak in Mansalay: A Mathematical Modeling Approach to Predict and
Control the Spread
RESEARCH QUESTION

The primary objective of this study, entitled “Curbing the ASF Outbreak in Mansalay: A

Mathematical Modeling Approach to Predict and Control the Spread,” is to foretell and control

the propagation of the flu. In essence, the study aims to develop a comprehensive model that can

predict and analyze the transmission of the virus, answering the following questions:

1. What are the primary routes of ASF transmission in Mansalay?

2. How do pig trade networks and animal movement pattern influence the spread of ASF?

3. What role do environmental factors play in ASF survival and transmission?

4. How effective are current biosecurity practices in preventing ASF outbreaks?

5. What is the current spatial and temporal distribution of ASF in Mansalay?

6. What are the potential future trajectories of the ASF outbreak?

7. What are the most effective interventions for controlling the spread of ASF in Mansalay?

8. Are there any unique characteristics of ASF transmission in Mansalay compared to other

regions?

9. How can the developed model be used to inform future ASF control efforts in Mansalay and

beyond?

GOALS/EXPECTED OUTCOME/HYPOTHESES
 Curbing the ASF Outbreak in Mansalay: A Mathematical Modeling Approach to Predict and
Control the Spread
The primary objective of this study, entitled “Curbing the ASF Outbreak in Mansalay: A

Mathematical Modeling Approach to Predict and Control the Spread,” is to foretell and control

the propagation of the flu. In essence, the study aims to develop a comprehensive model that can

predict and analyze the transmission of the virus.

To better understand and to achieve the objective of the research the following expected

outcome will be proposed:

1. This study will provide valuable insights into the spread of ASF in Mansalay and

inform the development of effective control strategies by developing a Mathematical

model.

ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

The study will adhere to ethical standards, obtaining informed consent from participants,

ensuring privacy and confidentiality, and prioritizing equipment safety. Data integrity will be

maintained, and ethical guidelines for publication and communication will be followed.

PEER REVIEW

To ensure rigor and validity, a peer review process will be planned, involving colleagues,

experts, or research advisors to provide critical feedback and suggestions for improvement.

By implementing these procedures, the study aims to methodically investigate the

prediction of ASF transmission, contributing valuable insights to the fields of mathematics,

physics, and health.

 Curbing the ASF Outbreak in Mansalay: A Mathematical Modeling Approach to Predict and
Control the Spread

RISK AND SAFETY

In the forthcoming research, meticulous consideration has been given to potential risks,

and comprehensive safety measures will be implemented to ensure the well-being of participants,

researchers, and the integrity of the experimental process. Prior to each trial, routine equipment

checks will precede to mitigate the risk of equipment malfunction or damage. Emergency

protocols, including the establishment of a backup system for critical components, will be put in

place.

If human participants are involved, there may be psychological or physical discomfort

during the observation. Informed consent will be obtained, and participants will be thoroughly

briefed on potential discomforts. They will retain the right to withdraw from the study at any

time, and a qualified professional will be available to address any psychological concerns. To

safeguard data security, measures such as restricted access, regular backups, and encryption will

be implemented. Emergency procedures, including evacuation plans and first aid provisions, will

be in place, and environmental impact will be minimized through responsible waste management

practices. These forthcoming safety measures, combined with regular safety training, are

designed to ensure a secure and ethical research environment.

DATA ANALYSIS

In the data analysis for this study, we will focus on investigating the prediction and

development of effective control strategies. The data collected from four distinct month samples
 Curbing the ASF Outbreak in Mansalay: A Mathematical Modeling Approach to Predict and
Control the Spread
— October (Set A), November (Set B), December (Set C), and January (Set D) —will undergo a

systematic observation.

The data will be systematically organized and presented in a clear and concise manner,

with graphs and charts aiding in the visualization of trends and patterns. Each step of the analysis

will adhere to established statistical standards, ensuring the robustness and reliability of the

findings.

Throughout the analysis, we will maintain transparency in our methods and

interpretations, providing a comprehensive understanding of the mathematical model and

behavior of the African Swine Flu.

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