Stage 1 Mathematical Methods

Probability Investigation
Semester 2, 2023
Teacher : SHIN, JIAS, MUJU
Date Issued: Week 3 Monday, 31/7
Name: Weighting:25 % Date Due: Week 8 Monday
Grade:
Purpose
To demonstrate your ability to:
 use mathematical modelling and problem-solving strategies as well as your knowledge, skills, and
understanding of mathematical ideas and processes
 effectively and appropriately communicate relevant mathematical information within your solutions.

Description of assessment
The aim of this investigation is to find the probability that in a random sample of 8 Australian people that at
least one will have the blood type A-. To achieve the solution to this problem, the binomial expansion and its
relations to Pascal’s triangle is explored and a knowledge and understanding of permutations and combinations
and their connection to the binomial distribution is required.
Assessment conditions:
You have three weeks to complete this assessment task with three in class lessons. Use of technology is
required. You must submit your investigation in a word processed format through the Turn-It-In website. If you
have any difficulties with this you must seek assistance from your Mathematics teacher before the due date of
the assignment.

Investigation format:
The investigation report should be a maximum of eight A4 pages. The maximum page limit is for single-sided A4
pages with minimum font size 10.
Your report on the mathematical investigation should include the following:
 an outline of the problem and context

 the method required to find a solution, in terms of the mathematical model or strategy used

 the application of the mathematical model or strategy, including:

– relevant data and/or information

– mathematical calculations and results, using appropriate representations
– the analysis and interpretation of results, including consideration of the reasonableness and limitations
of the results
 the results and conclusions in the context of the problem.

Assessment design criteria:

Concepts and Techniques
CT1 Knowledge and understanding of concepts and relationships
CT2 Selection and application of mathematical techniques and algorithms to find solutions to problems in a
variety of contexts
CT3 Application of mathematical models.
CT4 Use of electronic technology to find solutions to mathematical problems

Reasoning and Communication

RC1 Interpretation of mathematical results
RC2 Drawing conclusions from mathematical results, with an understanding of their reasonableness and
limitations
RC3 Use of appropriate mathematical notation, representations, and terminology
RC4 Communication of mathematical ideas and reasoning to develop logical arguments
 Performance Standards for Stage 1 Mathematics
Concepts and Techniques
Comprehensive knowledge and understanding of concepts and
A relationships.
Highly effective selection and application of mathematical techniques
and algorithms to find efficient and accurate solutions to routine and
complex problems in a variety of contexts.
Successful development and application of mathematical models to
find concise and accurate solutions.
Appropriate and effective use of electronic technology to find accurate
solutions to routine and complex problems.
Some depth of knowledge and understanding of concepts and
B relationships.
Mostly effective selection and application of mathematical techniques
and algorithms to find mostly accurate solutions to routine and some
complex problems in a variety of contexts.
Some development and successful application of mathematical models
to find mostly accurate solutions.
Mostly appropriate and effective use of electronic technology to find
mostly accurate solutions to routine and some complex problems.
Generally competent knowledge and understanding of concepts and
C relationships.
Generally effective selection and application of mathematical
techniques and algorithms to find mostly accurate solutions to routine
problems in a variety of contexts.
Successful application of mathematical models to find generally
accurate solutions.
Generally appropriate and effective use of electronic technology to
find mostly accurate solutions to routine problems.
Basic knowledge and some understanding of concepts and
D relationships.
Some selection and application of mathematical techniques and
algorithms to find some accurate solutions to routine problems in
some contexts.
Some application of mathematical models to find some accurate or
partially accurate solutions.
Some appropriate use of electronic technology to find some accurate
solutions to routine problems.
Limited knowledge or understanding of concepts and relationships.
E
Attempted selection and limited application of mathematical
techniques or algorithms, with limited accuracy in solving routine
problems.
Attempted application of mathematical models, with limited accuracy.
Attempted use of electronic technology, with limited accuracy in
solving routine problems.
Reasoning and Communication
Comprehensive interpretation of mathematical results in the context of
the problem.
Drawing logical conclusions from mathematical results, with a
comprehensive understanding of their reasonableness and limitations.
Proficient and accurate use of appropriate mathematical notation,
representations, and terminology.
Highly effective communication of mathematical ideas and reasoning
to develop logical and concise arguments.
.
Mostly appropriate interpretation of mathematical results in the
context of the problem.
Drawing mostly logical conclusions from mathematical results, with
some depth of understanding of their reasonableness and limitations.
Mostly accurate use of appropriate mathematical notation,
representations, and terminology.
Mostly effective communication of mathematical ideas and reasoning
to develop mostly logical arguments.
.
Generally appropriate interpretation of mathematical results in the
context of the problem.
Drawing some logical conclusions from mathematical results, with
some understanding of their reasonableness and limitations.
Generally appropriate use of mathematical notation, representations,
and terminology, with reasonable accuracy.
Generally effective communication of mathematical ideas and
reasoning to develop some logical arguments.
.
Some interpretation of mathematical results.
Drawing some conclusions from mathematical results, with some
awareness of their reasonableness or limitations.
Some appropriate use of mathematical notation, representations, and
terminology, with some accuracy.
Some communication of mathematical ideas, with attempted
reasoning and/or arguments.
.
Limited interpretation of mathematical results.
Limited understanding of the meaning of mathematical results, their
reasonableness or limitations.
Limited use of appropriate mathematical notation, representations, or
terminology, with limited accuracy.
Attempted communication of mathematical ideas, with limited
reasoning.
 Binomial Distributions
In Australia the percentage of the population with each blood group is given in the table below.

Blood Type O+ O- A+ A- B+ B- AB+ AB-

Percentage of the
40% 9% 31% 7% 8% 2% 2% 1%
Australian Population

There is a situation where in a remote location a person is in need of blood type A- and there is none available.
There are only 8 people in the locality who can give blood. The aim of this investigation is to find the probability
that in a random sample of 8 Australian people that at least one will have the blood type A-.

This investigation has four parts:

1. The binomial expansion of

( p+q )n
where n is an integer,
0≤n≤6
is derived and its relationship to
Pascal’s triangle and the binomial expansion is discussed.
2. Tree diagrams are used to complete various problems related to samples of people and their blood
type.
3. Explain the binomial distribution and apply it to find the probability that in a random sample of 8
Australian people that at least one will have the blood type A-.
4. Extension

Part 1 Binomial Expansion and Pascal’s Triangle

Binomial Expansion
n
(a) Use algebraic techniques to expand ( p+q ) where n is an integer and 0≤n≤6 . These are called
binomial expansions.
Display your results in a table as shown below.

( p+q )0
( p+q )1
( p+q )2

( p+q )6

Pascal’s Triangle
(b) Pascal’s Triangle is the name given to the triangular array of numbers shown below.

Row 0 1
Row 1 1 1
Row 2 1 2 1
Row 3 1 3 3 1
Row 4 1 4 6 4 1
Row 5 1 5 10 5 1
Row 6 1 6 15 20 15 1

(i) Copy this array and then fill in the missing values and add row 7 and 8.

(ii) Explain how to get the next row in Pascal’s triangle.

(c) Explain the relationship between the Binomial Expansion and Pascal’s triangle.
Part 2 Tree Diagrams
Assume each person in the following questions is Australian and has the probability of 7% of having type A-
blood.
a) (i) Draw a tree diagram to show the number of possibilities (sample space) of a person having type
A- blood if the random sample size is 2.
(ii) Find the probability that there is only one person that has type A- blood.
(i) Find the probability that there is at least one person that has type A- blood.

b) (i) Draw a tree diagram to show the number of possibilities (sample space) of a person having type
A- blood if the random sample size is 3.
(ii) Find the probability that there is only one person that has type A- blood.
(iii) Find the probability that there is at least one person that has type A- blood.

c) (i) Draw a tree diagram to show the number of possibilities (sample space) of a person having type
A- blood if the random sample size is 4.
(ii) Find the probability that there is only one person that has type A- blood.
(iii) Find the probability that there is at least one person that has type A- blood.

n
d) Make a conjecture connecting the probability if independent event occurring in terms of ( p+q ) and
C nk

Part 3 The Binomial Distribution

Use your conjecture to answer the following question:

What is the probability that in a random sample of 8 Australian people that at least one will have the
blood type A-?

Comment on your answer. Explain how this problem can be determined using technology.

Part 4 Extension

(a) What is the minimum sample size you would need to be taken to have at least 60% chance that at
least one person out of your sample has A- blood?

(b) Explain the difference between a Normal Distribution and a Binomial Distribution.