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Final Report
INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL
FINAL REPORT
THE CASE STUDY FOR RISK MANAGEMENT OF TESCO
PLC. IN 2020
ABSTRACT
1. Introduction
2. Analyze the diagram of Risk management report
2.1. Risk management structure of Tesco and the “Lines of defense”.
2.2. The “Top-down” and “Bottom-up” approaches in risk management of
Tesco.
2.3. Risk Appetite, Health and Safety, Covid-19 to Tesco.
2.4. The risk to Brand, Reputation and Trust.
2.5. The impact of Brexit to Tesco.
3. Practical scenario of risk and the reaction – the risk scenario Situation
3.1. Describe the possible likelihood and impact of a 20-point risk.
3.2. Scoring the 2 risk scenarios.
3.3. Risk appetite and estimate the risk fund.
4. Conclusion
REFERENCES
APPENDICES
Founded by Sir Jack Cohen in 1919, Tesco Plc originated as a stall selling surplus
groceries in London's East End. The name "Tesco" derives from a blend of T.E. Stockwell, a tea
supplier, and Cohen's surname. The inaugural Tesco store emerged in 1929 in Burnt Oak,
Edgware, Middlesex. These are some key milestones, such as:
In 1940s:
Rapid UK expansion during the 1960s established Tesco's reputation for value.
The first Tesco superstore opened in Crawley, West Sussex, in 1968.
1970s and 1980s:
Tesco ventured into petrol stations in the late 1970s and introduced the "Every Little
Helps" slogan.
Diversification into non-food items and international markets occurred in the 1980s.
In 1990s:
The groundbreaking Clubcard loyalty program debuted in 1995, gathering customer data.
International expansion accelerated in Eastern Europe and Asia.
In 2000s:
Tesco streamlined operations and faced challenges, including a 2014 accounting scandal.
Investment in customer service, quality, lower prices, online offerings, and same-day
grocery delivery transpired.
In 2020 and Beyond
In risk management, to guard its stability and ensure sustainable growth, Tesco places
paramount importance on effective risk management strategies by assessing, monitoring, and
mitigating potential risks.
1 Never / Remote The chance of the future events occuring is slight ( < 5%)
Impact (severity) is the threshold or the degree of influence that causes loss or damage of
an uncertain event. This can be classified as:
The risk matrix is for recognizing risk as significant, rating risk, prioritizing, and
considering the measures with cost-effectiveness to mitigate/control. The most common form is
the likelihood of the risk and the impact of the event. The risk assessment is a process that relies
on the evaluation of the risk likelihood and impact, and on the development and monitoring of
appropriate internal controls. Large organizations frequently make use of a risk matrix as a
means of summarizing their risk profile. The risk matrix is very useful and can be used for a
range of applications. It can also be used to identify the type of risk response that is most likely
to be employed.
According to Risk Level Matrix by the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point
System (HACCP), a form of a matrix of 5x5, the 20-point risk in the risk matrix belongs to the
risk rating "Avoid" (Red color) – Find a way to avoid the risk. The 20-point risk of Tesco
company happens 2 cases:
Case 1: The probability of future events occurring is very highly probable (Level 5). It
means that more than 4 internal issues or failures in the last 18 months with a likelihood
exceeding 80 percent. Simultaneously, the impact is severe (Level 4) and includes substantial
impacts on earnings with the threshold ranging from over $100 million to $600 million.
Case 2: The probability of future events occurring is high (Level 4). It means that about 3
internal issues or failures in the last 18 months with a likelihood fluctuating from greater than 60
percent to at most 80 percent. Simultaneously, the impact is extremely harmful (Level 5) and
includes a total loss of reputation and market share with a threshold of exceeding $ 500 million.
A 20-point risk usually occurs with a frequency of expectation and certainty. The same
applies to severe and extremely severe financial loss thresholds. 20 points in the risk matrix are
high-risk levels. Action measures to address risks and risk scenarios must be developed.
In the case of Tesco Plc, at a 20-point risk belonging to high-level risk, the viability of
Tesco has been assessed, taking into account Tesco’s current financial position and the impact of
certain scenarios arising from Tesco's principal risks. Especially, emerging risks such as finance
and economics, geopolitical and security, social and humanitarian, technological, climate, and
sustainability accepted in risk scenarios.
In Tesco Plc. Annual Report 2020, page 19, Tesco mentioned five "severe but plausible
scenarios" that have been modeled that address the principal risks that the Group has assessed
would have the most direct and material impact on the Group. It's including:
1. Competitive pressure
3. Brexit impact
5. Impact of COVID-19
The scenarios above are hypothetical and purposefully severe with the aim of creating
outcomes that have the ability to threaten the viability of Tesco. Because the probability of these
scenarios occurring is expected and certain and it occurs frequently and has a serious impact on
Tesco's operations. In the case of these scenarios arising, various options are available to the
Group in order to maintain liquidity so as to continue in operation such as:
Based on these severe but plausible scenarios, the Directors have a reasonable
expectation that Tesco will continue in operation due over the three-year.
3.2. Scoring the 2 risk scenarios.
Risk scenario 1: Labor strikes across the UK demanding for a 5% increasing of base
salary occurs 1-2 times every year. In Tesco, the risk committee predicts that this year due to
high inflation rate, more than 75% of the employees will join the strike leading to Tesco's daily
operation disruption. Financial losses are estimated at $235m. They recommend the BOD to take
action in advance.
Risk scenario 2: There is a possibility that the ban for “GMO fruits” shall come into
effect in the coming years. Though that most of GMO crops are used for animal food, there are
some GMO products are for human consumption such as apples, pears and soybean. At the
present, there are growing calls for not choosing any fruit or nut with GMOs origin for direct
human food. The committee estimate that if the law comes into effect financial loss may be
greater than $750m with serious brand prestige impact and market share loss to the hand of its
competitors.
Financial losses: greater than $750 million, brand prestige impact and market share loss
to the hand of competitors Rank 5
Probability: Not sure but there is a possibility into effect in the coming years Rank 3
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
4 x 5 = 20 5 x 3 = 15
Risk scenario 1 is more severe because the risk score is higher, the frequency is
extremely high (1 to 2 times per year) and it always leads to financial losses because of Tesco's
daily operation disruption. It is challenging to come up with a long-term solution because the
size of the loss varies dependent on the rate of inflation each year of economic.
Labor strikes are organized actions by workers to voice their concerns and demands. In
this scenario, labor strikes are occurring across the UK, with employees demanding a 5%
increase in their base salary for better wages. A higher level of employee participation in strikes
is due to a high inflation rate. Inflation can erode the purchasing power of employees' wages,
making their demands for salary increases more urgent and relevant.
The risk committee predicts that more than 75% of Tesco's employees might join the
strike. With a significant portion of the workforce on strike, the company's ability to conduct
business as usual could be severely hampered.
Risk appetite is the level of risk of the total value of the corporate resources that the
board of the organization is willing to put at risk in pursuit of its goals before action is deemed
necessary to reduce risk. Most organizations have not determined the value they should risk (risk
appetite), calculated how much value is actually at risk (risk exposure), nor the capability of the
organization to take the risk (risk capacity).
After analyzing the above 2 scenarios, we realize that scenario 1 should be accepted as
risk appetite. Because the risk of labor strikes disrupting Tesco's daily operations can be
evaluated within the context of the organization's risk appetite. The organization would need to
determine how much operational disruption it is willing to tolerate in pursuit of its business
objectives. Tesco's risk appetite would define its tolerance for financial losses, especially in
relation to its profitability and financial stability goals.
Part of the risk appetite consideration involves evaluating the organization's capacity and
willingness to implement measures to mitigate the identified risks. Tesco needs to estimate the
risk fund, contingency plans to minimize disruption, and alternative strategies to manage labor -
related risks. To cover/control risk effectively, we estimate the risk fund at $235 million. The
decision to accept this scenario 1 as a risk appetite also depends on Tesco's specific risk
tolerance, strategic priorities, and willingness to navigate the potential challenges posed by labor
strikes and associated disruptions. The risk fund at $235 million is suitable for Tesco's Board of
Directors to take proactive measures such as negotiations with the employees' representatives to
address their demands, exploring ways to mitigate the impact of the strikes on operations, or
considering alternative compensation or benefits strategies.
4. Conclusion
In the throes of the Covid-19 pandemic, Tesco has demonstrated its commitment to
customers by implementing specific and enduring measures aimed at helping disruptions caused
by the virus's expansion. By prioritizing long-term actions, Tesco has maintained its role as a
trustworthy partner to customers, minimizing the impact of the pandemic and enhancing
customer experiences.
In the aspect of reputation and trust, Tesco employs a multi-faceted approach. By actively
engaging with customers and stakeholders and heeding their voices. This commitment to
listening, connected with periodic risk assessments, fuels a continuous cycle of improvement,
strengthening Tesco's standing as a trustworthy and reliable entity in the eyes of its stakeholders.
Hence, Tesco Plc's proactive and strategic approach to risk management shines through
in its measured responses to the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, potential risks to
reputation and trust, and the uncertainties surrounding Brexit.
Regarding specific scenarios, the labor strike risk and potential GMO regulation impact
are noteworthy examples of risk scenarios that Tesco faces. The labor strike scenario presents a
high-frequency risk due to inflation-driven demands for wage increases. This could lead to
significant operational disruptions and financial losses, necessitating the establishment of a risk
fund to mitigate potential impacts. Meanwhile, the GMO regulation scenario, while posing a
lower likelihood, carries a substantial financial risk and brand impact, requiring proactive
measures to monitor and address potential future regulatory changes.
With the recommendation to Tesco from the two above scenarios, we think they should
focus on dealing with the risk related to Scenario 1 first because it happens every year (1-2 times
annually). To face this risk, Tesco can:
Tesco plc - AnnualReports.com. (2020). Tesco Plc. Annual Report and Financial
Statements 2020. Retrieved from https://www.annualreports.com/Company/tesco-plc.
Hopkin, P. (2010), Fundamentals of Risk Management Understanding, evaluating and
implementing effective risk management. Kogan Page Limited.
Hopkin, P. (2017), Fundamentals of Risk Management Understanding, evaluating and
implementing effective risk management. Kogan Page Limited.
APPENDICES
APPENDIX A: Risk Rating Criteria (Likelihood)
0 - Not Active
1 - Normal
2 - Active