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EFFECT OF LAND USE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOW OF HATIRJHEEL-

BEGUNBARI KHAL

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 8th International Perspective on Water Resources and the Environment
Sri Lanka, 4-6 January, 2016

EFFECT OF LAND USE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOW OF

HATIRJHEEL-BEGUNBARI KHAL

Afrin, S.1, Islam, M. M.2*, & Rahman, M. M.3

1
Sadia Afrin, Lecturer, Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of
Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh; PH:
+8801915213462; FAX: +88029665639; email: sadiaafrinbuet@gmail.com
2*
Md. Maksimul Islam, Lecturer, Department of Civil Engineering, BUET, Dhaka-
1000, Bangladesh; PH: +8801712225389; FAX: +88029665639; email:
maksimulislam075@gmail.com
3
Md. Mujibur Rahman, Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, BUET, Dhaka-
1000, Bangladesh; PH: +8801755655424; FAX: +88029665639; email:
mmujib4@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
This paper aims at assessing the effect of land use and climate change on the flow of
Hatirjheel-Begunbari Khal storm water drainage system, the major drainage channel
of Dhaka city. Catchment of Hatirjheel-Begunbari Khal system has changed rapidly
due to unplanned urbanization coupled with filling up with agricultural land and also
wetlands by several thousand real estate companies which in turn caused an increase
of inflow to the drainage system. Moreover, precipitation intensity and pattern are
expected to be altered due to climate change and such changes are likely to lead to
severe flooding in urban areas of Bangladesh specially in Dhaka. This study
involves DEM based catchment delineation using GIS. The change in land use
pattern of the catchment was explored by analyzing present land use map and
Landsat imageries of 1989, 1999 & 2009. After classifying the Landsat images using
maximum likelihood supervised classification, trend analysis was employed to detect
the changes of different land covers. Finally percentage of different land covers were
predicted for future time periods based on the trend analysis that were used to
determine runoff coefficient of rational formula. The peak rainfall intensity was
obtained from the IDF curves of Dhaka city developed previously considering
observed and future precipitation data of a climate model. As Hatirjheel works as a
large storm water detention area and also a regulatory system, different operational
scenerios were considered while assessing the future flow. It was observed form the
land use analysis and IDF curves that runoff coefficient and peak precipitation
intensity would be increased by around 4.9% and 135% on 2025 and 12% and 177%
on 2040 respectively considering 5 year return period. Considering the effect of both
land use change and precipitation variability due to climate change, it was found that
peak flow of Hatirjheel-Begubari khal system would likely to rise about 107% and
143% on 2025 and 2040 respectively which might cause severe water logging and
eventually flooding in the city.

1
1. Introduction

Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh and one of the fastest growing mega cities in
the world, is continuously changing due to rapid and unplanned urbanization.
Encroachments of natural canals are also alarming. A previous study reveals that
proposed 4.5% retention pond areas of FAP-8B had been encroached by
various land use activities and at present only 1.79% retention pond areas are
left. It was found that 34% area of 13 natural canals had been filled up by
developers, private individuals and others. Between 1989 and 2007, area of wetland
was reduced from 22.15% to 12.17% in the west Dhaka (Das & Islam, 2010).
Another study evaluates wetland changes in Dhaka Metropolitan Area (DMA),
Bangladesh, between 1978 and 2009 (Mahmud et al., 2011) revealed that area of
wetland and Rivers & Khals in Dhaka city decreased significantly over the last 30
years by 76.67% and 18.72% respectively.Thus, the wetlands are decreasing and on
the contrary population is expanding at a rate of almost 0.8 million per year.
Moreover, precipitation intensity and pattern are expected to be altered under a
climate change regime. The variable nature of precipitation in Bangladesh makes it
difficult to discern trends in the observed record. However, an increase of 4.26% was
observed in the percent difference between the total annual precipitation (average of
34 meteorological station-data) of the past 20 years (1953-1972) and the recent 20
years on record (1985-2004) which represents that the annual rainfall follows an
increasing trend (Rajib M. A., Rahman, Islam, & McBean, 2011). The IPCC Special
Report on the Regional Impacts of Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) indicates that there
would be drastic changes in the rainfall patterns in the warmer climate and
Bangladesh may experience 5-6% increase of rainfall by 2030, which may create
frequent massive and prolonged floods. Thus, assessment of flow under different
land use and climatic scenarios are rapidly becoming an engineering requirement to
help reduce water logging, flooding and stream erosion.
On the other hand, Hatirjheel- Begunbari Khal system is the largest and most
important drainage system of Dhaka city. Some studies related to the drainage
system and water logging of Dhaka city, causes and effect of water logging in Dhaka
city, rehabilitation of canals, flood management and vulnerability of Dhaka city and
some other relevant studies have been conducted (Barua & Ast, 2011; Huq & Alam,
2003). (Matin et al., 2010; BRTC, 2013) assessed capacity of drainage canals of the
city which are limited to 5 yr return period rainfall event only and operation of
Hatirjheel as a storm water detention system was not considered. But no study was
conducted to assess the flow of Hatirjheel- Begunbari Khal drainage system
considering the effect of land use pattern and precipitation variability due to climate

2. Methodology

Study Area
Hatirjheel-Begunbari Khal drainage system covers zones of the central Dhaka and
eastern Dhaka. Begunbari Khal carries storm runoff to the Balu river from Hatirjheel
and eastern side of Progati Sarani. Three tributary Khals, Shutibhola and Gojaria

2
Khals from the north and Nasirabad-Nandipara Khal from the south, discharge runoff
into this Khal. Moreover, storm water and sewage water from main diversion sewer
lines of Hatirjheel are also discharged into this khal.

Data Collection
In this study, a higher quality DEM from the Advanced Space-borne Thermal
Emission and Reflection Radiometer instrument of the Terra satellite was used.
Drainage map of Dhaka city and data regarding existing storm sewers along with
their directions and outlets were collected from Dhaka WASA (Water Supply &
Sewerage Authority). Moreover, stream network data and present land use map of
Dhaka was collected from RAJUK (Rajdhani Unnayan Kartipakkha). On the other
hand, for past land use maps Landsat satellite images (1989, 1999, and 2009) were
downloaded from the official website of US Geological Survey (USGS). The study
area is located in the Landsat path 137 and row 44.

Runoff/flow Estimation
In this study rational method was used to estimate runoff volume as it is the most
commonly used method of determining peak flow. It is expressed as Q=CIA, Where,
Q is peak runoff, C is runoff coefficient, I is rainfall intensity and A is catchment
area

Figure 1. DEM before and after reconditioning

Catchment Delineation
Watershed and stream network were delineated using DEM with the help of Arc
Hydro Terrain Preprocessing tools. Moreover, a comparison of existing ground
features affecting hydrology with the area’s DEM indicated that the DEM resolution
was not fine enough to depict water body, an important feature within the flood plain

3
(see Figure 1).To incorporate this topographic feature, prior to delineating watersheds
DEM was verified and appropriately modified to match existing topography. Again
in order to incorporate the existing storm sewer network the DEM was conditioned
such that the presence of a storm sewer main would redefine the elevation 10 m
below the original elevation (see Figure 1).This created a channelization effect
intended to mimic the storm drain system. Further terrain analysis was performed
with this new conditioned DEM to generate data of flow direction, flow
accumulation, streams, stream segments, and watersheds. Then the percent and total
area of each catchment was determined with the help of Arc GIS.

Land use analysis

Firstly, the acquired satellite images (1989, 1999, and 2009) were analyzed with
respect to their spectral and spatial profiles. A chosen color composite (RGB = 432)
was used for digitizing polygons around each training site for similar land cover.
Then a unique identifier was assigned to each known land cover type. When the
digitization was completed, the statistical characterizations of each land cover class
were developed. Then, a maximum likelihood classification method was used. The
maximum likelihood classifier calculated for each class the probability of the cell
belonging to that class given its attribute values. Consequently, a filtering technique
was applied to generalize the classified land cover images (see Figure 2). Finally, the
generalized images were reclassified into three broad land cover types (Table 1) and
different percentages were determined.

Figure 2. Generalized/classified land use images

For the analysis of present land use map((see Figure 3). statistical analysis tool of
ArcGIS (Summary Statistics) was used to identify the area of various land patterns
and all these land covers further categorized as per Table 2. Then, future land use
scenario was considered by analyzing land use maps while determining run off
coefficient which was used to calculate future flow of the drainage system. In case of
considering the future land use scenario the basic assumption was that future
development of eastern side would be similar to that of the land use pattern of
western side (west side of Progati Sarani). Finally, present and proposed runoff
coefficient was obtained from weighted average of C associated with different land
types.

4
Figure 3. Present land use map

Table 2. Description of different land covers types

Land cover Description
types
Built up Residential, commercial and services, industrial, socio-
economic infrastructure and mixed urban, transportation,
roads and airport and other urban..
Open & Open land, park, play ground, urban green & agricultural
Cultivated land area, crop fields, fallow lands, vegetable lands.
Water-body & River, permanent open water, lakes, ponds, reservoirs and
Wetland permanent and seasonal wetlands, low-lying areas, marshy
land, swamps.
Source: Adopted from (Anderson et al., 1976)
Rainfall Intensity analysis
The IDF curves (Afrin et al., 2014) were used to determine both the present as well
as future maximum rainfall intensity corresponding to time of concentration (Tc) and
for different return periods. The time of concentration is the sum of travel times for
segments along the hydraulically most distant flow path. This longest flow path is
another important outcome of watershed delineation. The flow paths consist of
different types of flow such as sheet flow, shallow concentrated flow, and open
channel flow etc. Thus the impact of climate change in the flow of the system due to
precipitation variability was incorporated.

Different scenario
For determination of inflow both present and future conditions were considered
based on observed and predicted precipitation, land use scenarios. Although
Hatirjheel -Begunbari Khal system is expected to carry storm water runoff only, in
the dry period it carries some flow, usually known as dry weather flow, due to illegal
connection of sewage lines in the storm sewer network. So, the impact of dry
weather in the flow was also considered. Furthermore, as Hatirjheel works as a
regulatory structure and the crest of the Hatirjheel regulator is generally maintained
at a minimum elevation of +2.5m. So, it is not feasible to consider a constant
contribution of Hatirjheel to the inflow of Begunbari Khal. Moreover, there is also
sluice gate at the beginning od Rampura Khal. Based on the operational conditions
two critical scenarios were considered. One, when hatirjheel crest at a elevation of

5
+2.5 m and Rampura gate open. Another one, when both Hatirjheel and Rampura
gates are closed.
3. Results and Discussion
Catchment Area and time of concentration
Several small catchments were found as a result of catchment delineation. These
small catchments were then grouped into seven major catchment for the convenient
of further analysis (Figure 3). Area of each catchment was determined with help of
GIS (Table 2). It is seen from the table that Hatirjheel lake and Nasirabad-Nandipara
khal consist of larger catchments (19 km² and 22 km² respectively) compared to
others. Tthe total catchment of Nasirabad-Nandipara, Gozaria and Sutivola khals is
found to be 59% depicting that Begunbari khal has a large catchment in eastern side
in addition to western side.

Table 2. Summary of Areas in km2

Catchment Area
Hatirjheel Lake 19.00
Gulshan-Banani Lake 8.27
Sutivola Khal 14.76
Gozaria Kkal 4.87
Nasirabad-Nandipara 22.00
Catchment of SSDS 6 0.65
Catchment of SSDS 11 0.44
Figure 3: Catchement of Hatirjheel-Begunbari
Table 3. Determination of Time of Concentration in min
Hatirjh Gulsha Sutivol Gozari Nasiraba SSDS SSD
eel nBanan a a dNandip 6 S-11
Catchment i ara
2
Initial time, Ti 20 20 20 20 20 20 0
Overland flow
path, Km 1.5 1.50 1.50 0.4 2.0
Overland flow
time, To 83 83 83 22 111
Storm sewer 1.
flow path, Km 3.9 2.3 2.7 6
Time through 4
sewer, Tn 118 70 83 8
Open channel
flow path, Km 4.3 4.3 5.5 2.5 5.2
Time through
open channel,
Tv 90 89 114 52 108
Time of
Concentration 10 6
,Tc 311 193 217 95 309 3 8

6
In this study time of concentration (Tc) was calculated assuming an overland flow
velocity of 0.3 m/s and a velocity of 0.8 m/s through khal as these values were used
in similar type of studies (Matin et al., 2010; BRTC, 2013). But in case of
determining the travel time through storm sewer the velocity of the sewer was
calculated using Manning's equation of pipe flow considering the pipe is at full flow.
The diameter of the storm sewers are different in locations. However, a general size
of 6.1 ft diameter was considered for analysis. The longitudinal slope was taken
0.0004 ft/ft and the roughness coefficient was 0.022. According to above mentioned
data the velocity through the storm sewer was calculated 0.55 ft/sec. Finally the
times of concentrations of different catchment were calculated and these values are
summarized in Table 3. From Table 3 it is clearly visible that time of concentration is
highest for Hatirjheel catchment followed by Nasirabad-Nandipara Khal catchment.
In contrast, SSDS-11 has lowest time of concentration (67.58 min).

Summary of Land use analysis and Estimation of Runoff coefficient

The percent of area associated with the three land use categories of the past three
years were summarized in Table 4. It is clear that built-up area increased gradually
over the periods whereas water body and open & cultivated land decreased. More
specifically built-up area increased by 80.3% in the past 20 years, from 1989 to 2009.
In case of open and cultivated land significant decreased was not observed. Although
open land converted to built up area at that time, contribution of wetlands to open
land caused this slight decrease. Considerable decrease was observed in water body
& wetlands as this acted as a donor to both open lands and built up area. However,
the patterns and extent of conversion from one category to the others are not clear.

Table 4. Summary of land use classification statistics between 1989 to 2013

Land use Area (%) Area changed (%)
categories 1989 1999 2009 2013 1989-1999 1999-2009 2009-2013
Built up 26.4 39.2 51.7 56.4 12.7 12.5 4.8
Open &
cultivated 44.9 42.9 36.9 32.1 -2.0 -6.1 -4.7
land
Water
body & 28.6 17.9 11.5 11.5 -10.8 -6.4 0.0
Wetlands
**** (+ ) or (-) signs indicate direction of change.

Moreover, from the summary statistics of present land use map it can be depict that
the eastern side of Dhaka is not still developed enough (Table 5). On the other hand,
in the western side, built up area is 88.7% and there is actually no scope of further
development in future. So for future land use pattern of east side it was considered
that the water body will remain almost unchanged as present and at the same time
other land use categories will tend to approach to those of west side. And for future
land use pattern of west side it was considered that it will be same as present. Based

7
on these assumptions the proposed land use pattern for future was determined and
summarized in Table 5.

Table 5. Percentages of area for present & proposed land use scenarios
Scenario Present land use Proposed land use scenario
Land use West East Total West East Total
categories Side Side study area Side Side study area
Built up 88.7 33.0 56.4 88.7 78.0 82.3
Open &
6.3 51.3 32.1 6.3 12.0 9.7
cultivated land
Water body &
5.1 15.8 11.5 5.1 10.0 8.0
Wetlands

90
80
70
60
50
Area ( %)

40
30
20
10
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Built up Open & cultivated land Water body & Wetlands

Figure 4. Trend of land use pattern from 1989 to 2040

After developing future land use scenario, time period needs to be assigned by which
such change will occur. To determine this time period, changes of different land
covers over different time periods was analyzed (Table 4) It was found that from
1989 to 1999, built up area increased by 12.73%. The percentage was slightly lower
in the next 10 years (12.5%). Finally from 2009 to 2013, the built up area was
increased by 4.76%. From these values it could be said that on an average 12 %
change has occurred in case of built up area for every 10 years. By considering this
rate it could be said that the proposed land use change would occur in 2035 and after
that the land use would remain almost constant likewise western side of the study
area. Finally plotting all these scenario from 1989 to 2040 (Figure 4) the land use
scenario of the year 2025 was obtained from the trend line. Percentages of land
covers in 2025 are shown in Table 6 along with land cover of other time periods.
Considering all these types runoff coefficient for the built up area was taken as 0.6
and for open and cultivable land it was taken as 0.25. In case of water body entire
rainfall contributes to the runoff, for this runoff coefficient of water body and wet
lands was taken as 1.0 (Matin et al., 2010). Finally, the weighted average runoff

8
coefficient of the study area was determined for the year 2013, 2025 and 2040. And it
was found to be 0.53, 0.56 and 0.60 respectively.

Table 6. Percentages of land covers in different years

Land use
1989 1999 2009 2013 2025 2040
categories
Built up 26.44 39.17 51.67 56.43 70 82.32
Open &
44.92 42.94 36.85 32.11 21 9.67
cultivated land
Water body &
28.64 17.89 11.48 11.46 9 8.01
Wetlands

Determination of maximum rainfall intensity

The following intensity duration frequency relation (Afrin et al., 2014) were used for
determination of rainfall intensity, where rainfall intensity (I) is in mm/hr, T is the
return period in year and d is the duration of storm in hour. For peak flow analysis
time of concentration Tc was used as duration.
69.536−23.457ln(−𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙(1−1⁄𝑇𝑇))
Considering present scenario, 𝐼𝐼𝑑𝑑,𝑇𝑇 = 𝑑𝑑0.686
168.92−102.88ln(−𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙(1−1⁄𝑇𝑇))
Considering future scenario, 𝐼𝐼𝑑𝑑,𝑇𝑇 = 𝑑𝑑0.686

Determination of maximum flow

Finally runoff volume in m3/sec for different catchment of Begunbari Khal was
determined using rational formula and these values are summarized in Table 7, 8 &
9. These discharges are further categorized into different scenarios according to their
corresponding catchment area and represented in Table 10.
Table 10 provides the present and future inflows of Begunbari Khal considering only
storm water and both storm water and waste water flow through the storm network.
Based on the operation of Hatirjheel, the maximum and minimum flow were
estimated for 2yr, 5yr and 10yr return periods. The table depicts that for same return
period and under same operating condition the incoming flow would become almost
double in future. Another important observation is that there is a high inflow at the
downstream of Begunbari Khal in spite of being closure of the Hatirjheel and
Begunbari regulated gates. It implies that the eastern catchment have high
contribution in the flow of the khal. For example, in case of present discharge for 2
yr return period, the upstream flow is 114.03 m³/sec and the downstream flow is
293.22 m³/sec. That means the eastern tributaries contribute 179.19 m³/sec.

9
Table 7. Runoff due to historical precipitation scenario and existing land use.
Gulshan- Nasirabad-
Catchment Hatirjheel Banani Sutivola Gozaria Nandipara
Present C 0.53
2 yr 23.3 32.3 29.8 52.7 23.4
Rainfall intensity I 5 yr 31.2 43.3 39.9 70.6 31.3
(mm/hr) for different 10 yr 36.4 50.6 46.6 82.5 36.6
Return periods 100 yr 52.8 73.4 67.7 119.6 53.1
Area (km2) 19.0 8.3 14.8 4.9 22.0
2 yr 70.4 42.6 70.1 40.9 81.9
5 yr 94.3 57.1 93.9 54.8 109.8
10 yr 110.2 66.6 109.7 64.0 128.2
3
Present Q (m /sec) 100 yr 159.8 96.7 159.1 92.8 186.0

Table 8. Runoff due to future precipitation scenario and land use for 2025
Gulshan- Nasirabad-
Catchment Hatirjheel Banani Sutivola Gozaria Nandipara S
C for 2015 0.56
Rainfall intensity 2 yr 50.3 69.9 64.5 114.0 50.6
I (mm/hr) for 5 yr 73.5 102.2 94.2 166.6 73.9
different Return 10 yr 88.9 123.5 113.9 201.4 89.4
periods 100 yr 137.1 190.4 175.6 310.5 137.7
2
Area (km ) 19.00 19.0 8.3 14.8 4.9
2 yr 148.7 89.9 148.0 86.3 173.0
5 yr 217.3 131.4 216.3 126.2 252.9
Future Q for 2025 10 yr 262.8 158.9 261.6 152.6 305.8
3
(m /sec) 100 yr 405.1 245.0 403.2 235.2 471.4
Table 9. Runoff due to future precipitation scenario and land use for 2040
Gulshan- Nasirabad-
Catchment Hatirjheel Banani Sutivola Gozaria Nandipara S
Runoff coefficient C for 2040 0.60
2 yr 55.2 76.7 70.7 125.0 55.5
Rainfall intensity 5 yr 86.3 120.0 110.6 195.5 86.8
(mm/hr) for different 10 yr 106.9 148.6 137.0 242.3 107.5
Return periods 100 yr 171.5 238.3 219.8 388.5 172.4
Area (km2) 19.00 19.0 8.3 14.8 4.9
2 yr 174.7 105.7 173.9 101.5 203.3
5 yr 273.4 165.3 272.1 158.7 318.1
Future Q for 2040 10 yr 338.6 204.8 337.1 196.6 394.1
3
(m /sec) 100 yr 543.1 328.5 540.6 315.3 632.0

10
Conclusions
In this study future flow of Hatirjheel-Begunbari khal was assessed considering land
use and cliamte change. To do so catchment was delineated based on not only DEM
but also existing storm sewer network. While delineating watershed it was found that
Begunbari khal has a large catchment in eastern side of Pragati Sarani in addition to
western side which contains catchment of Sutivola, Nasirabad-Nandipara and
Gozaria Khal. It was observed form the land use analysis and IDF curves that runoff
coefficient and peak precipitation intensity would be increased by around 4.9% and
135% on 2025 and 12% and 177% on 2040 respectively considering 5 year return
period. Considering the effect of both land use and climate change, it was also found
that peak flow of Hatirjheel-Begubari khal system would likely to rise about 107%
and 143% on 2025 and 2040 respectively which might cause severe water logging
and eventually flooding in the city.

Table 10. Summary of flow in m3/sec of Begunbari khal

Hatirjheel and Rampura Hatirjheel and Rampura
gates are opened gates are closed
Different Scenario Upstream Downstream Upstream Downstream
2yr 114 293 9 188
Present 5yr 153 393 12 252
Flow 10yr 179 459 14 295
Flow 2yr 259 667 21 428
of 5yr 379 974 30 626
2025 10yr 458 1178 36 756
Considering Flow 2yr 305 783 24 503
only storm of 5yr 477 1225 38 787
water 2040 10yr 590 1518 47 975
2yr 119 298 14 193
Present 5yr 158 398 17 258
Flow 10yr 184 464 19 300
Flow 2yr 268 675 29 436
of 5yr 387 983 39 634
Considering
2025 10yr 467 1186 45 765
storm water
& dry Flow 2yr 322 801 42 521
weather of 5yr 494 1243 55 804
flow 2040 10yr 608 1536 64 992

11
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