THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY

AND DEVELOPMENT

John Dorrell, Abhilash Kancharla,

and Matthew Ambrosia
“Green Crypto Mining:
A Quantitative Analysis of the
Profitability of Bitcoin Mining
Using Excess Wind Energy,”
Volume 48, Number 1

Copyright 2023
 GREEN CRYPTO MINING: A QUANTITATIVE
ANALYSIS OF THE PROFITABILITY OF BITCOIN
MINING USING EXCESS WIND ENERGY

John Dorrell, Abhilash Kancharla, AND Matthew Ambrosia*

Introduction

C ryptocurrency and wind energy are rapidly expanding throughout the world.
These two technologies have enormous potential, but they also present mas-
sive new challenges for society to overcome. Cryptocurrency mining consumes a

*John Dorrell is an economics professor at the University of Tampa. He holds a Ph.D. in economics
from Pusan National University in South Korea, an MBA in international business from California
State University, and a bachelor’s degree in real estate management and development from Virginia
Tech University. The author’s areas of expertise are cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, real estate,
and international economics. Dr. Dorrell is currently the Chairman of the University of Tampa
Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Club. The author’s academic research focuses on projects in
economics such as relating to Bitcoin, renewable energy, and blockchain technology.
Abhilash Kancharla is currently working as an Assistant Teaching Professor in the Computer
Science department at the University of Tampa. Prior to his teaching at the University of Tampa,
Dr. Kancharla has also taught computer science courses at Oklahoma State University, where he
received his master’s and Doctorate degrees in Computer Science. He has worked closely with
blockchain for more than 5 years designing/modifying the source code for Ethereum and Hyperledger
blockchains. Dr. Kancharla also works as an ad-hoc reviewer for blockchain and queueing related
papers at MDPI Journal.
Matthew Stanley Ambrosia earned a B.S. degree in Physics from Sam Houston State University in
Huntsville, Texas, a master’s degree in mechanical engineering from the Texas A&M University, and a
Ph.D. degree in mechanical engineering from Pusan National University. Dr. Ambrosia currently is
teaching in the Department of Environmental Administration at the Catholic University of Pusan. His
research interests include cryptocurrencies, renewable energy, computational fluid dynamics, and
molecular dynamics.

The Journal of Energy and Development, Vol. 48, Nos. 1-2

Copyright # 2023 by the International Research Center for Energy and Economic Development
(ICEED). All rights reserved.
1
2 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT

substantial amount of electricity to power the advanced computing required for

mining new coins and verifying transitions.1 Wind energy has added a significant
amount of new energy into the grid, but it is an intermittent energy resource. Peak
supply does not match peak demand. In times of high wind energy production
and low consumer demand, electricity goes to waste, because large scale energy
storage batteries are still not cost-effective solutions to handle industrial scale
wind farms.
Blockchain is a technology that has the potential to impact nearly every indus-
try in the world.2 The possibilities are endless, however there are problems that
need to be addressed. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin mine new coins by compu-
ters solving equations in a process called “mining.”3 Bitcoin mining requires mas-
sive amounts of energy.4 The energy consumption can be even higher than mining
precious metals, when measured in a per dollar calculation.5 The high electricity
expense limits the profitability of Bitcoin mining.6
Bitcoin was established in 2008 when Satoshi Nakamoto7 (a pseudonym) wrote
a white paper explaining the concept of the digital money based on Proof of Work
(POW) blockchain technology.8 This technology operates using the SHA-256
encryption technology created by the National Security Agency (NSA). Bitcoin is
the most secure payment system in the realm of cryptocurrencies.9 These advanced
computers use lots of electricity.10 Bitcoin’s proof of work system requires a mas-
sive amount of electricity. Bitcoin transactions are verified by solving complex
mathematical and cryptographic problems.11
Making cryptocurrency mining “Greener” would be greatly beneficial for all
parties involved.12 A recent paper recommends using phase change material to
help with making the cooling process more efficient and reduce electricity con-
sumption while mining with renewable energy.13 More environmentally friendly
energy sources such as geo-thermal are also intriguing options.14 Overall, mining
Bitcoin can provide renewable energy producers a significant form of capital
generation.15
Approximately 74% of Bitcoin’s electricity usage is from renewable energy
sources.16 Switching even more of the mining to renewable energy such as wind
farms, would reduce the carbon emissions even further.17 This is not just theoreti-
cal; it is working in practice in the real world. The government of Paraguay has
created partnerships with crypto mining companies, to install their mining facilities
next to hydroelectric stations.18 This strategic partnership is similar to the proposal
brought forth in this paper for wind energy and Bitcoin mining.
From a financial perspective, there is a lot of profit to be made in mining Bitcoin.
The money being made is driving the explosion of mining worldwide. Bitcoin
miners are very sensitive to the cost of electricity,19 most of the costs associated
with mining Bitcoin are from electricity. If electricity for mining was free, then costs
would be substantially cut, and mining would be more profitable.20 More accurate
price predictions reduce investors risk.21 To accurately predict profits to be made by
 GREEN CRYPTO MINING WITH WIND ENERGY 3

mining Bitcoin with excess wind energy, we have to accurately forecast the price of
Bitcoin into the future. Bitcoin price projection is complex, and cannot be done by
simply calculating mining price, because the price of mining is affected by price,
not vice versa.22 For the sake of our experiment, we recommend selling at the end
of the four-year cycle for Bitcoin. Historically, a bull market develops at the end of
the four years because of the nature of the algorithms.
Understanding Bitcoin price formation is extremely important.23 There are mul-
tiple factors involved in the price of Bitcoin, the hash rate, halving, the advance-
ment of mining technology, and market structure.24 Many papers and financial
analysts have tried to predict Bitcoin price, and there are a broad range of price
points. We also must consider the inherent biases, for or against, Bitcoin for each
source of prediction. These fundamentals are based on the algorithms that deter-
mine supply of Bitcoin and the difficulty for mining. Recent research has con-
cluded that the mining costs have remained stable since 2010 when taking into
account volume of transactions.25 However volatile the price of Bitcoin is, the fact
remains that Bitcoin has outperformed Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft
over the past 10 years.26 We are currently in a bear market for Bitcoin and other
assets due the Federal Reserve interest rate increases and overall economic head-
winds, causing asset price decreases across the board. Historically, this is not
uncommon for Bitcoin. There have been crashes over 90%, but the cryptocurrency
has always recovered and gone on to new all-time highs. To gain a more balanced
perspective, it is important to observe long-term trends. Table 1 shows the 10- and
5-year return on a $1,000 investment.
Estimates for Bitcoin mining energy consumption vary greatly because they are
difficult to precisely quantify.27 But a few of the estimates are as follows, Bitcoin
energy consumption is estimated to use around 77.8 terrawatt-hours (TWh) per

Table 1
RETURN ON A $1,000 INVESTMENT IN VARIOUS ASSETS (CURRENCY IN
U.S. DOLLARS)
June 15, 2012-June 15, 2022, June 15, 2017-June 15, 2022,
Companies 10-Year RIO on $1,000 5-Year RIO on $1,000
Bitcoin 3,381,692 8,994
Amazon 9,890 2,240
Google 7,561 2,039
Apple 6,429 3,971
Microsoft 8,400 3,877
Gold 1,116 1,450
Ethereum N/A 6,044
Real Estate 1,796 1,347

Source: Yahoo Finance, NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote.

4 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT

year.28 This translates into approximately 0.59% of total worldwide consump-

tion.29 Annual global CO2 emissions from Bitcoin mining are as high as 22.9 mil-
lion metric tons.30 The Bitcoin environmental impact is difficult to calculate, but
Bitcoin is now attracting the ire of environmentalists.31
Growth of Cryptocurrency and Wind Energy: The market cap for Bitcoin
passed one trillion dollars in only 12 years. To put this in perspective, it took
Microsoft 44 years, Apple 42 years, Amazon 24 years, and Google 21 years to
accomplish the same feat. Proponents of Bitcoin have seen this feat as an incredi-
ble achievement, while opponents view this rapid growth as a threat to the estab-
lished global financial system. Bitcoin has the potential to be the most disruptive
financial technology in history.32
Wind energy has followed a similar upward trajectory during the same time
period that Bitcoin has been experiencing massive growth. The first Bitcoin,
referred to as the Genesis Block, was mined in 2009. At that time there was
157.9 GW of installed wind energy capacity in the world.33 Now there is 837 giga-
watt (GW) installed global wind energy capacity.34 Figure 1 shows the growth of
wind energy capacity for leading countries. The growth trends for both technologies

Figure 1
GROWTH OF WIND ENERGY CAPACITY FOR LEADING COUNTRIESa
(in megawatts—MW)

a
Chart data compiled from the Wind Technologies Market Reports (2010-2019), the Land-Based
Wind Market Report, 2021 Edition, and the Global Wind Energy Council for Brazil data (2010–
2013). The United States has the second greatest total of installed wind power capacity with 121,985
GW as of 2020.
 GREEN CRYPTO MINING WITH WIND ENERGY 5

have significant near- and long-term growth trajectories. By partnering wind energy
and cryptocurrency we can create wealth by harnessing wasted wind energy and
solving the energy consumption problem of Bitcoin.
The primary method of critiquing Bitcoin has been to highlight its energy con-
sumption. Figure 2 shows the growth of energy consumption from Bitcoin mining,
the data are obtained from Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index. This
paper offers a sustainable solution to the problem of Bitcoin’s energy consumption.
Lost Energy from Wind Farms: The curtailment data for this paper comes
from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Wind energy is an intermit-
tent power source. The supply does not match consumer demand. There are times
when more supply is produced than is needed for consumption, so the turbines are
curtailed. In Texas, an average of 3.69% of wind energy production was lost due to
curtailment according to hourly data in 2020. Instead of wasting this electricity, it can
be used for cryptocurrency mining operations. The 3.69% statistic is actually quite
low. Many countries have wind energy waste at significantly higher rates, which
would increase the amount of electricity that could be used to mine Bitcoin onsite.
Negative Media Coverage Based on Energy Usage: Bitcoin has been a very
hot topic over the past few years. A reporter for the Guardian wrote that Bitcoin min-
ing is “killing the planet,”35 another CNN reporter believes that Bitcoin is a “disaster”
for the environment.36 It should be noted that these articles are not necessarily the
views of the entire editorial board. Even the positive price growth of Bitcoin has been
used as an attack, with news outlets saying that the exploding price of Bitcoin has trig-
gered doubts about the financial sustainability of the cryptocurrency.37 The talking

Figure 2
GROWTH OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF BITCOIN MINING: TOTAL BITCOIN
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, JULY 2010 — MARCH 2022

Source: Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, available at https://ccaf.io/cbeci/index/,

and C. Mooney and S. Mufson, “Why the Bitcoin Craze Is Using Up So Much Energy,” Washington
Post, December 19, 2017.
6 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT

point that Bitcoin uses as much energy as Switzerland was highly popular.38 This has
led to calls to adopt other cryptocurrencies that use less energy.39
Some in the media may not understand what Bitcoin technology actually is, but
there is a real issue of energy consumption that needs to be solved. Using wind
energy that would otherwise go to waste is one way to make Bitcoin mining more
sustainable. Using this mining strategy can also generate positive press to offset
the corporate media attacks on Bitcoin.
Former head of the Federal Reserve Bank, Ben Bernanke, is on the record as
saying that the “underlying use value of a Bitcoin is to do ransomware or some-
thing like that.”40 Another former head of the Federal Reserve Bank, Janet Yellen,
was even more harsh in her comments about Bitcoin. She says, “It’s an extremely
inefficient way of conducting transactions, and the amount of energy that’s con-
sumed in processing those transactions is staggering,” and that it’s “often for illicit
finance.”41 European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has also jumped
on the central banker bandwagon in bashing Bitcoin, saying that Bitcoin and other
cryptocurrencies are “worth nothing.”42 It is true that the technology of Bitcoin has
problems, but the central bankers Bitcoin are also developing their own Central
Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC).
The banker critiques of Bitcoin come from the private sector as well. Berkshire
Hathaway CEO, Warren Buffett had this to say about Bitcoin and other cryptocur-
rencies, “I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending.”43
J.P. Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon is one of the most passionate critics of Bitcoin. In
2017 Dimon said, “It won’t end well. Someone is going to get killed,” and
“eventually it will be closed.” He also said that Bitcoin “will not survive,” it is
“worthless,” “terrible store of value,” and that it “will be stopped.”44 These are the
comments that Dimon makes in public about Bitcoin, but when advising investors,
J.P. Morgan predicts that Bitcoin will be worth $146,000 in the future,45 and has a
cryptocurrency department devoted to crypto investing and making their own ver-
sion of a cryptocurrency. This department has over 100 employees.46
CEOs, with more technical savvy understand the technology and support efforts
to reduce energy consumption.47 MIT educated engineer Michael Saylor, and
SpaceX CEO, Elon Musk, both understand the technology of Bitcoin and the pur-
pose it serves. These two CEOs are two of the most vocal supporters of Bitcoin,
and both are pursuing more sustainable energy usage for Bitcoin networks. Reduc-
ing the carbon footprint of Bitcoin would greatly benefit the world. This paper
offers a real-world solution to this complex problem.

Purpose

The contribution of this research is multifaceted. There is a lack of peer reviewed

research on cryptocurrencies and renewables working together. We project the
 GREEN CRYPTO MINING WITH WIND ENERGY 7

number of Bitcoin miners that could be operating using ERCOT wind farm curtail-
ment data. With that information we use current trends to evaluate a time period to
sell at which the price of Bitcoin is expected to peak if current trends continue. The
impact of these technologies is significant for the future of society. We explain how
cryptocurrency mining companies can leverage their expertise to take advantages
and work with wind farms across the world. The methods quantified in this paper
can also be used to mine other proof of work (PoW) cryptocurrencies as well.

Materials and Methods

Model: Our model combines multivariate analysis to determine the financial

returns for green Bitcoin mining. Although this energy could be used to mine any
proof of work cryptocurrency Bitcoin was chosen for its longer history, more sta-
ble prices, acceptance by companies and countries as a reserve asset, and more
clarity in legislation in many jurisdictions. Using time series data from 2011–2020,
we are able to chart into the future returns for wind power facilities. Our model
accounts for changes in mining technology, wind energy production, Bitcoin min-
ing difficulty, and changes in the Bitcoin price in order to project realistic returns
and a payback price for the time period.
This paper provides a model and quantifiable data for these variables to show
that wind farms can generate enough residual energy to profitably mine Bitcoin and
can be used as a financial battery which can store wasted wind energy by changing
it into financial energy. It will prove that Bitcoin can run profitably on green energy.
In 2020, 3.69% of the Texas ERCOT wind farms’ power was lost due to curtail-
ment. That totaled 4,210,189 megawatt hours (MWh). That is enough electricity, if
provided evenly over 2020, to power over 154,043 of Bitmain’s Antminer S19J Pro
with 104 terahashes per second (TH/s), which consume 3,120 W each. An astound-
ing 16.02M TH/s could be produced by the 154,043 S19J Pro miners, which is over
8.0% of today’s total Bitcoin network hash of 199.91M TH/s. That would earn
$1.4 million a day even at the price of $20,000 per Bitcoin. This is an idealistic pro-
jection under perfect circumstances with the energy distributed evenly over time.
The final results presented have a lower projection due to the consideration of addi-
tional factors that play a role in this scenario but these numbers show a great poten-
tial to be tapped.
Realistically, curtailment fluctuates greatly but even with these fluctuations and
inconsistencies of the power, considerable profit can be made using Bitcoin miners
powered by wind farm curtailment. Considering the fluctuations in curtailment our
findings show that approximately 10,000 miners could be operating 66.38% of the
time and 1,000 miners could be operating 93.33% of the time. These projections
are based on the ERCOT Texas electricity system as a whole, but the results can
be applied to smaller wind farms by simply adjusting the ratio and percentages to
8 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT

match the scale of energy production. We present the cost of these miners and
how many Bitcoin they can produce and show how each variable affects the result-
ing profit. Instead of curtailing electricity, it can be used by the miners essentially
for free.
There are several variables to consider when trying to profitably mine Bitcoin.
Our paper will consider each of these variables, model them, and predict the profit-
ability of mining Bitcoin using residual electricity from a wind farm. The variables
to be considered in detail are: (1) price of Bitcoin, (2) price of the miner and hous-
ing container, (3) hash rate of the miner relative to the network hash rate, (4) the
block reward, (5) Bitcoin transaction fees awarded to the miners, (6) mining pool
fees, (7) the cost of the electricity, and (8) percentage of time the miners will be
running. An overview of each one will be discussed.
Bitcoin Price Projection: In order to accurately forecast the return on invest-
ment, the price for Bitcoin must be projected into the future. Immediately selling
Bitcoin that has been mined is needed for many mining operations to pay for the
electricity. But if the Bitcoin can be securely stored profits can be multiplied if
they are sold at the 4-year cycle peak in price.
Bitcoin miners solve extremely difficult math problems which help verify trans-
actions between wallets. The first miner that solves the problem is awarded some
Bitcoin called the block reward. The block reward is automatically cut in half
every 210,000 blocks or about every 4 years so the decreased supply of new Bit-
coin coming into the market helps increase the price. Therefore, the halving of the
block reward pushes Bitcoin into a bull market every 4 years. Several studies have
been published related to this 4-year cycle caused by the Bitcoin block reward
halving.48 This cycle is driven by supply constraints, and the economic principle of
future expectations.
After the Bitcoin block reward halving in November 2012 the price of Bitcoin
went from $12 to $1,217 in 13 months in December 2013. After the Bitcoin block
reward halving in July 2016 the price of Bitcoin went from $647 to $19,800 in
17 months later December 2017. After the most recent halving in May 2020 the price
started at $8,787 and peaked twice at $64,899 and $69,000 11 months later in April
2021 and 18 months later in November 2021, respectively. This shows a great overall
increase in the value of Bitcoin but as time goes on there are diminishing returns.
Several models have been developed using fundamental and technical analysis.
One price model called the Stock-to-Flow model by PlanB, a pseudonym for a
Dutch forex trader, was developed in 2019 and it followed the price action of
Bitcoin in the past. It predicted the price of $55,000 after the Bitcoin block reward
halving in 2020.49 Subsequently, he refined his equation, projecting a price target of
$100,000 following the 2020 halving event. However, this target remained elusive,
leading to diminished confidence in his model among many. However, the price
exceeded PlanB’s original prediction and topped out at $69,000. His original model
predicts a price of over $400,000 after the halving in 2024 as seen in figure 3.
 GREEN CRYPTO MINING WITH WIND ENERGY 9

Figure 3
STOCK-TO-FLOW METHOD FOR PREDICTING BITCOIN’S PRICE, 2009–2028

Source: PlanB@100trillionUSD -PlanBTC.com.

For this study, to model this increase of value with diminishing returns, the price
of Bitcoin was plotted and a quadratic equation was used to connect peak values as
seen in figure 4. The thinner black vertical lines in figure 4 represent dates the Bit-
coin block reward was halved or is projected to half. The thicker vertical black line
is the projected sell date of November 1, 2025, which is 19 months after the pro-
jected halving date of April 1, 2024. This is similar to the number of months from
the two previous Bitcoin block reward halving to the following peak in price. As
price tends to be volatile, 19 months was chosen to give ample time for the price to
cross the price peak curved trend line connecting cycle tops. The price may cross
the price peak curved trend line described in table 2 earlier than 19 months as in
previous cycles in which it would be advantageous to sell at that time.
The Bitcoin price peaks at the close in November 2013, December 2017,
and March 2021 provide data to estimate a peak in the future using p(t) 5 a * t2 1
b * t 1 c, where t represents time on the x-axis and p(t) represents the price of
Bitcoin at time, t seen in figure 4. Each data point is the price of Bitcoin at the start
of each month. The actual price went higher so these data points give conservative
values to project into the future. The coefficients a, b, and c were calculated and
are shown in table 2.
Using this historical price data, we project that the price of Bitcoin will peak at
$190,436 on at least November 1, 2025, 579 days after the projected halving
date of April 1, 2024 assuming the trend continues. This is 26.96 percent above JP
Morgan’s long-term prediction of $150,000.50 Our prediction is not unreasonable
10 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT

Figure 4
STOCK-TO-FLOW METHOD FOR PREDICTING BITCOIN’S PRICE, 2012–2025

Source: PlanB@100trillionUSD -PlanBTC.com.

considering we are trying to time the peak of the 4-year market cycle which histor-
ically overshoots moving averages considerably. This will be the price target and
date to sell all the Bitcoin mined.
Projected Bitcoin Network Hash Rate: The total Bitcoin mining network
hash rate is projected into the future. Once a miner has bought its hash rate is con-
stant if maintained well but the network hash rate fluctuates over time depending
on the numbers of miners operating and the hash rate of each of those miners. His-
torically the network hash rate increases over time, but there are certain times in
the market when the network hash rate may drop. More recently this occurred in
2021 when China outlawed Bitcoin mining. All of those miners had to relocate to
another country which caused the network hash rate to drop until they were operat-
ing again. A miner that continued operating during that period of time became more
profitable since their percent of the total Bitcoin hash rate increased. Overall, the

Table 2
CALCULATED COEFFICIENTS A, B, AND C FOR THE PRICE PEAK CURVED TREND
LINE vðxÞ ¼ a  t2 þ b  t þ c
Date t Value p(t) a b c
t1511/2013 p(t1) 5 $ 1,158 20.00006937 0.02595 2.996
t2512/2017 p(t2) 5 $ 13,900
t353/2021 p(t3) 5 $58,779
 GREEN CRYPTO MINING WITH WIND ENERGY 11

network hash rate has grown linearly since 2017 at a rate of 111.255 Th/s per day.
This growth is similar to adding one Bitmain S19J Pro Antminer a day which has a
hash rate of 104 Th/s. If this linear growth continues at the current rate, the Bitcoin
network hash rate is expected to be 330.801 exahashes per second (Eh/s) or
330.801M Th/s at our projected sell date of November 1, 2025, shown in figure 5.
Block Reward: The block reward to the miners for mining a block is cut in
half every 210,000 blocks added to the blockchain which amounts to approxi-
mately four years. This affects the profitability of mining operations. The halving
of the block reward is also an indicator of when the next bull market will start.
The current block reward for Bitcoin is 6.25 BTC and a block is mined about every
10 minutes. The block reward will likely be cut in half again around April 1, 2024.
The following Bitcoin halving will be approximately 4 years after that.
Transaction Fees Earned: The Bitcoin transaction fees awarded to the miners
fluctuates over time. As the Bitcoin network traffic increases, transaction fees
increase to incentivize miners to include the transactions in the soonest possible
block. Transaction fees spike in price as the price of Bitcoin increases and there
are large volumes of Bitcoin changing hands. Employing the best Bitcoin miners
during this spike in transaction fees will be very advantageous to earn extra profit.
Spikes in the transaction fees have been rare and isolated events mainly when the
price of Bitcoin surges. From January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2021 the average

Figure 5
BITCOIN NETWORK HASH RATE’S GROWTH AND ITS PROJECTION INTO THE FUTURE
TO THE PROPOSED SELL DATE OF NOVEMBER 1, 2025
12 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT

has been 0.5538 Bitcoin per block mined earned for the transaction fee. We will
assume no growth in this earned fee to give a more conservative profit target but
during those 8 years the transaction fee has slightly increased by 0.0279 Bitcoin
per block per year on average.
Mining Pool Fees: The mining pool fees are somewhat constant but may range
from 1% to 4% depending on the mining pool used. In this study a mining pool
fee of 2% is used.
Percentage of Time Bitcoin is Mined: The percentage of time the miner will
be running is a major factor in our research. We want to only use curtailed electricity.
Considering the efficiency of the wind farms and the grid at supplying electricity dur-
ing peak demand miners will not be used all the time. It was calculated how much of
the electricity could be used and what percentage of time the miners could be run.
Since peak demand occurs during the morning and evening and the peak supply of
wind energy is at night, ample electricity is available to be used to power the Bitcoin
miners for a meaningful amount of time. With the ERCOT hourly data for 2020 it
was found that 10,000 miners 66.38% of the time and 1,000 miners 93.32% of the
time could have been operating. Calculations were made assuming miners were
turned on or off on the hour corresponding to the ERCOT data. Figure 6 shows the
percentage of time a certain number of miners could have been operating in 2020
according to the ERCOT hourly data. The data shows this amount of curtailment is

Figure 6
PERCENTAGE OF THE TIME A NUMBER OF MINERS COULD HAVE BEEN
OPERATING IN 2020
 GREEN CRYPTO MINING WITH WIND ENERGY 13

low compared to many wind farms and has not changed significantly over time.
These numbers were held constant over the mining time period but the amount of
curtailment may increase in the future as ERCOT wind farms are expected to
increase capacity in the coming years.
Bitcoin Miner Price: The price of Bitcoin miners also changes over time
depending on the hash rate and the technology used in the miner. If there is a break-
through in technology, newer miners will make older miners obsolete. Early on,
CPUs and GPUs could be used to mine Bitcoin but with the development of ASIC
miners, CPUs and GPUs are too slow and use too much electricity to be effective
at mining Bitcoin. Technology has increased steadily since ASIC miners were
first developed in 2013 which is also a factor in the increase in Bitcoin network hash
rate mentioned earlier. The Bitcoin miner considered in this study is the Bitmain
S19J Pro Antminer with a hash rate of 104 Th/s and can be bought for $5,360
at Viperatech.51 Its specifications are considered one of the best on the market.
The lifetime of this miner is expected to extend beyond the period needed but
we will consider the lifetime is the number of days discussed for each case in this
study.
Bitcoin Miner Housing Container: Bitcoin miners are housed in a large con-
tainer to mount, protect, and allow for easy transport to the site. In our research we
will refer to the Bitmain Antbox N5 Mobile Mining Container 20HQ 658KW Out-
door V2. This container costs $63,000 at Viperatech52 and can house 207 Bitmain
S19J Pro Antminers. This will add an expense of $304.35 per miner if the number
of miners is a multiple of 207. ASIC miners are responsive to environmental fac-
tors, yet this housing unit is designed to guarantee a minimum miner lifespan of
5 years.53 In a poor environment the lifetime of a miner may be much less, but it
has been reported it could extend to 20 years if conditions are favorable.54 This
housing unit has large exhausts with inlet filters and is excellent at heat dissipation.
In some cases, it may be important to use air conditioning. Even in these cases the
cost of air conditioning units needed would be less than 0.1% of the total costs so
are not considered in the calculations here. In addition, the cost of electricity
powering the air conditioning units would be zero since the miners are using just a
fraction of the electricity available. It would be most cost effective to use a number
of miners, which is a multiple of 207, the number of miners to be housed in one
container.
Electricity Cost: Electricity is a primary cost for mining Bitcoin. Our method
uses wasted electricity from wind farms which reduces this factor to zero. Purchas-
ing extra electricity may be considered depending on the profitability of the miners
being used at the time. However, in this study electricity will be considered free as
we propose wind farms buy and run miners completely off the wind farm curtail-
ment. As long as there is a market for Bitcoin and the miners are run long enough,
Bitcoin miners using free electricity will be profitable whereas miners paying for
electricity could operate at a loss depending on the price of Bitcoin.
14 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT

Empirical Methodology

The factors mentioned above are shown in equation form to calculate the amount
of Bitcoin mined per day. A Bitcoin block is mined every 10 minutes on average, so
there are 144 blocks mined each day. Equation (1) shows the daily profit for a miner
which is then added up for the total number of days in the period used. We propose
not to sell the Bitcoin each day but to sell all of the mined Bitcoin once the price
exceeds the price peak curved trend line. The variables are defined in table 3.

h M1C
/ 5P   ðR1TÞ  144  ð12FÞ  X 2 2E (1)
H d

Results

The results predict that mining Bitcoin using wind farm curtailment is very
profitable considering all of these variables. The challenge is to project the differ-
ent variables into the future which cannot be done without assumptions. However,
considering historical data a range of profitability can be calculated assuming
Table 3
VARIABLE DEFINITIONS
Variables Symbol Comment
Selling price of Bitcoin P Projected from the 3 previous peaks assuming
($/Bitcoin) the trend is maintained.
Profit per day ($/day) / To be calculated
Miner’s hash rate (h/s) h 104 Th/s for the Bitmain S19J Pro Antminer.
Network hash rate (h/s) H Growing linearly since 2017
Block reward (Bitcoin/block) R 6.25 btc/block until about April 1, 2024, when it
will be halved.
Transaction fees/block T 0.5538 BTC on average.
(Bitcoin/block)
Mining pool fees (%) F Most are around 1–4%.
% of time miner operates (%) X Dependent on the number of miners used.
Miner cost ($) M $5,360 for the Bitmain S19J Pr Antminer.
Container cost per miner C $63,000 for Bitmain Antbox N Mobile Mining
($/miner) Container housing 207 miners.
Number of days used (days) D The lifetime of the miner is expected to exceed
the time period used in this study so the
number of days of the study will be used.
Electricity cost / day ($/day) E $0 if using wind farm’s curtailment.
 GREEN CRYPTO MINING WITH WIND ENERGY 15

current trends continue. We consider our projected price of $190,436 if the trend
continues and JP Morgan’s long-term prediction of $150,000 as well as if the Bit-
coin price is $20,000. We also consider two different start dates of November 1,
2021 and November 1, 2022. In addition, we consider 1,000, 10,000, and 50,000
Bitcoin miners operating at different percentages of time according to the ERCOT
wind curtailment data. We used the number of days in each period to calculate
number of Bitcoins mined for each case of number of miners using the equation
above. We found it easiest to calculate the revenue in two steps, before and after
the Bitcoin block reward halving. Then those values were added together and
divided by the expenses of the Bitcoin miners and miner housing containers.
Figure 7 shows the return on investment (ROI) for 1,000 miners used to 50,000
miners used if the miners started on November 1, 2021. The best ROI of 1,347%
is the case with 1,000 miners used selling the Bitcoin at our target of $190,436.
Indeed, the optimal scenario for every selling price corresponds to the configura-
tion with the fewest number of miners. This is reasonable since adding miners
reduces the percentage of time miners can operate as seen in figure 6. All cases are
profitable except as the number of miners used increases for the sell price of
$20,000, losses are incurred beyond 10,000 miners.

Figure 7
RETURN ON INVESTMENT (ROI) WITH START DATE AS OF NOVEMBER 1, 2021
FOR DIFFERENT NUMBER OF MINERS USED AT SELL PRICES OF $190,436,
$150,000, AND $20,000
16 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT

Figure 8
RETURN ON INVESTMENT (ROI) WITH START DATE AS OF NOVEMBER 1, 2022
FOR DIFFERENT NUMBER OF MINERS USED AT SELL PRICES OF $190,436,
$150,000, AND $20,000

Figure 8 shows the return on investment for 1,000 miners used to 50,000 miners
used if the miners started on November 1, 2022. When starting at the later date,
the best case is 40% less profitable than starting on November 1, 2021. Like the
November 1, 2021 start date, the best ROI is the case with 1,000 miners used sell-
ing the Bitcoin at our target of $190,436. The difference is so large because mining
before the block reward halving is twice as effective and the miner will have a
greater percent of the total network hash rate than after the halving. For this start
date every case selling Bitcoin at $20,000 records a loss. Figures 7 and 8 show
ROI dropping considerably as the number of miners increase from 1,000 to
10,000. This follows what is seen in figure 6. As the number of miners used
increases from 1,000 to 10,000 the percentage of time the miners are being used
drops from 93.3% to just 66.4%.
While figures 7 and 8 show the possibility of a great return on investment, espe-
cially for the case of 1,000 miners, it is important to consider opportunity cost as well
as other risk factors. Table 4 shows the return on investment if Bitcoin were bought at
$20,000. This shows that most of the return is due to Bitcoin expected appreciation
instead of a direct advantage of mining. This may indicate a bottoming in the Bitcoin
price. Buying Bitcoin at $20,000 is slightly more profitable than starting mining on
 GREEN CRYPTO MINING WITH WIND ENERGY 17

Table 4
RETURN ON INVESTMENT (ROI) FOR BUYING BITCOIN AT $20,000 WITH CASH
(NOT MINING)
Sell Price Return on Investment (ROI)
$190,436 852%
$150,000 650%
$20,000 0%

November 1, 2022 as shown in figure 8. However, it is more than 58% more profit-
able to start the miners on November 1, 2021 than to buy Bitcoin at $20,000.
Break Even Prices: Usually the time period it takes to return one’s investment
is of great interest. However, in the case of Bitcoin mining, the best time to sell
Bitcoin happens every four years. The question is at what price will be the peak
following the Bitcoin block reward halving. Considering that prices at which min-
ing operations would break even were calculated if the Bitcoin mined were sold on
November 1, 2025. The results are found in table 5 for the operation that start on
November 1, 2021 and 2022 for 1,000, 10,000, and 50,000 miners.

Discussion

Potential Profit Sources for Wind Farms: This paper is not investment
advice. The purpose of our research is to investigate the synergy between wind
energy and Bitcoin mining. Prices of the input variables can fluctuate significantly
over time. Our empirical methodology analyzes data and historical trends to predict
potential future return on investment. The returns could be significantly more or
less based on the future price of Bitcoin.
Our wind energy data is from the entire ERCOT network. The assumption for
the model is system wide adoption for the entire network to use the wasted elec-
tricity to power Bitcoin miners, but the percentage returns offer ratios for adoption
of this method on a smaller scale.
The future of money is cryptocurrency.55 Adoption of Central Bank Digital
Currencies will also grow over the next decade. The techniques described in this
paper can be used to mine other cryptocurrencies as well.

Table 5
BREAK EVEN PRICES FOR VARIOUS MINING OPERATIONS
Number of Miners November 2021 Start November 2022 Start
1,000 $13,160 $21,039
10,000 $18,501 $29,579
50,000 $29,461 $47,099
18 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT

Turning Excess Energy into Money: Mining Bitcoin with excess energy is an
idea that will become more mainstream over the next few years. Even the IMF has
discussed the idea in their recent report.56 Specifically they said that Bitcoin min-
ing “will allow countries to monetize their energy resources outside of the financial
system.” By mining Bitcoin, countries can directly turn their energy resources into
money. This is a revolutionary new economic concept that has broad implications.
Further Studies: Further issues may be brought up related to our study. Usu-
ally, Bitcoin miners are left on continuously so there is no data on the dependabil-
ity of Bitcoin miners being turned on and off regularly.
Conclusions: Our research quantifies the potential return on investment that
can be made through harnessing excess electricity generated by wind turbines to
power Bitcoin mining equipment. Electricity is the largest cost associated with the
mining of Bitcoin, so by utilizing electricity that is essentially free, return on
investment for mining will be significantly higher than traditional cryptocurrency
mining operations. Based on the findings from our econometric analysis, wind
farms can reduce curtailment and increase profits by mining for Bitcoin with
excess wind energy.
The massive energy consumption of Bitcoin is a real problem that will only
become even more significant in the future as the calculations required for mining
become more complex. The intermittency of wind energy is a major problem that
will become more significant as the more countries shift towards renewable energy.
By combining the strengths of wind energy and Bitcoin we can compensate for the
weaknesses of the technologies and create a synergy that can create a more sustain-
able future for cryptocurrency mining.
The return on investment is determined by the future price of Bitcoin. The
future price projections in this paper are based on historical trends and the best
practice methods used within the field. As with any form of investing, there are
risks and a certain level of uncertainty. Predicting the future price of stocks, real
estate, commodities, and other assets is uncertain, but the entire financial invest-
ment system is based on making strategic investments based on historical data, to
project future returns on investments. Our Bitcoin price projection of $190,436
may seem extreme to those who have not spent significant time researching the his-
tory of Bitcoin and the technology on which it is based, but these projections are
right in line with the banking experts at JP Morgan, who predicted a price of
$146,000,57 and have recently updated their projection to $150,000.58 The fact
remains that over the course of its existence, Bitcoin has outperformed all other
assets, including Tesla, Apple, Google, Microsoft, oil, gold, and silver.
Our research helps to fill the void in peer reviewed literature to give empirical
analysis of potential profits from mining Bitcoin with wind energy. The model
seeks to create realistic expectations for potential investors based on long-term
trends. The implications of cryptocurrency mining with renewable energy have sig-
nificant global implications. We hope to do our small part to contribute to an
 GREEN CRYPTO MINING WITH WIND ENERGY 19

academic foundation in this field. The profits associated with Bitcoin mining based
on the methods described in this paper are higher than the current mining opera-
tions because of the use of electricity at near zero cost. The return on investment
using these methods leaves a significant margin for error in Bitcoin price
projections.
Mining Bitcoin with excess energy is not just a concept. It is currently happen-
ing around the world with multiple energy sources.59 This paper helps to create an
econometric structure by which to plan future cryptocurrency mining operations.
Bitcoin offers a new form of money for the future digital economy. Wind energy
offers a green renewable alternative to fossil fuels for a cleaner energy future. Min-
ing Bitcoin with excess wind energy can create a more sustainable future for both
technologies.60

NOTES
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5
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 GREEN CRYPTO MINING WITH WIND ENERGY 21
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22 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT
51
Bitmain Antminer S19J Pro 104 Th/s 3120W available at www.viperatech.com/product/
antminer-s19j-pro-104th-s/.
52
Bitmain Antbox N5 Mobile Mining Container 20HQ 658KW Outdoor V2 available at www.
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53
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B. Bambrough, op. cit.
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59
L. Tassev, op. cit.
60
J. Truby, op. cit.