5K Challenge - How To Make Consistent Profits

Using O2.5 And BTTS

By Robert Griggs

© 2021, Robert Griggs. All rights reserved.

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 Table of Contents

Introduction 3

Chapter 1 4
Is This The ‘Secret Sauce’? 4
Are You Gambling, Betting or Trading? 5
Consistently Making the Right Decisions is Key 6
Developing A Winning Mindset 8
Football Trading Should Be Seen As a Business 9
Bankroll and Money Management 10

Chapter 2 10
How To Trade The O2.5 and BTTS Markets 10
Combining the Different Markets 11
Taking Advantage of Time Decay 12
Entering Your Trade - Drip, Drip, Drip! 13
In-Play Analysis - (Sustained Pressure) 16
In-Play Analysis - (Goal Signals) 19
Exiting Your Trade and Common Scenarios 22

Chapter 3 26
Our Criteria For a Selection 26
What I Look For In A Selection 26
Be Patient - Don’t Over Trade 28
xG - Expected Goals 29
Head to Head (H2H) Trends 30
Finding Value Is Crucial To Long-Term Profits 32

Chapter 4 33
How to Find Your Own Selections 33
Selection Method #1 - Football xG Spreadsheet 34
Selection Method #2 - SoccerStats 42
Selection Method #3 - AdamChoi 47
Trading Examples 52
What Are We Trying to Achieve? 68
My Top Tips To Become A Winning Trader 70
Don’t be a Stranger 71

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 Introduction

Firstly, many thanks for downloading this

E-Book.

Before we take a look at the O2.5/BTTS

strategy, I just wanted to take the
opportunity to remind you about a few of
the resources that are available to help
improve your trading.

Website (Free) - Since 2016, I have been

running a website (www.myfootballtradingsystem.com) where you can learn more
about football trading. I frequently publish my free tips, trading advice and
information about the systems that I use and my own personal journey. Feel free to
stop by from time to time.

Telegram Channel (Free) - I also have a Telegram Channel that I frequently post
my selections too. Once you’ve subscribed (it’s totally free) you will instantly be
notified on your phone or PC when I send out my tips for the different strategies.

Newsletter (Free) - You may also subscribe to my newsletter service. I don’t

publish too often as most of the information and services that I provide are accessed
via the website and Telegram channel.

However, every so often, I send out important updates, offers, tips and
monthly/yearly reviews, so feel free to sign-up. I promise not to spam you and will
absolutely never, ever share your details with anyone else.

E-Book Publications (Small Charge) - I have published a number of E-Books

exploring the different football trading strategies that I use including my 5K
Challenge (Over 2.5/BTTS) and LTD2 (Lay the Draw) systems.

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These are instantly downloadable via my Payhip page. If you are interested in
downloading any of them, check the site for any discount codes or just email me to
see if I have any discount codes hanging around. ;-)

There is a small charge for my guides but other than that everything else I do is free.

So without any further ramblings, let’s crack on and learn all about the O2.5/BTTS
strategy that I use for the 5K Challenge and as a part of my own football trading
portfolio.

Chapter 1

Is This The ‘Secret Sauce’?

Below you’re going to learn a way of trading the O2.5/BTTS markets which will
provide you with consistent long term profits.

You could say that this is my ‘secret sauce’ to profitable football trading.

That’s not because I believe it is some kind of golden ticket to making mega riches. I
wouldn’t be so shallow to make such claims. No, what I mean is that if you want to
become successful at football trading, the approach outlined below contains much of
what you will need.

If you want to extract a consistent profit from Betfair, you need to follow a proven
process that will give you the results.

However, I want to make it clear from the outset that this is NOT a ‘get-rich-quick’
scheme. It’s a methodology that will increase your trading bank in a safe and sensible
manner over a period of time.

Furthermore, you won’t be experiencing long losing runs which can so often be the
case with other betting systems promoted online.

If you want to get ahead and make a consistent profit over the long term, read on.

I’ve been profiting from this for quite a while and you can too if you follow my
instructions and don’t deviate from them.

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If you’re looking for a system that you can add to your existing portfolio, then this
will be a worthy addition. I will even show you how to find your own selections each
day, which is really simple to do.

First though, I need to ask a question.

Are You Gambling, Betting or Trading?

Personally, I don’t like the term “gambling”. I prefer “betting”. Gambling is almost a
dirty word for me. It has negative connotations and is associated more with mug
punters who just throw their money away and lose their shirts at the race track. I
don’t know about you, but I certainly don’t want to be categorised as some misfit who
lacks discipline and loses the utility bill money.

So moving forward, I will be using the term “betting”, as opposed to gambling. You
may even hear me using the word “trading” which is also acceptable, although there
is a slight difference between betting and trading. And here they are, or at least my
own personal interpretation of them.

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Trader: A trader doesn’t use set-and-forget betting. He/she will never risk their full
stake and will trade out for a controlled profit or loss where appropriate using
predetermined entry and exit points.

Bettor: A bettor will usually risk their full stake. He/she will often let their bet run
to the end of the match, potentially risking their full stake in the process.

Personally, I like to trade my selections.

For me, trading is a much nicer approach and a smoother ride overall without
experiencing large losses. You do have to be more disciplined by exiting the trade if
things are not going as planned. This is something that many people struggle with,
however, in the long-term, it helps to protect your trading bank which is the
primary aim.

The most important difference between the two is that a trader is more in control
of their bets and will enter and exit at specific points to maximise profits or minimise
risk and liabilities.

A trader will also log ALL of their trades and analyse the data to see how they can
improve their trading to become more profitable.

I will cover entry and exit points further below and go into more detail with some
possible scenarios.

First, I want to touch on the mental side of football trading - especially our decision
making.

Consistently Making the Right Decisions is Key

I have a quote that goes something like this:

“The decisions we make in life define us! We are WHERE we

are and WHO we are because of the decisions we have
previously made.”

Think about it! You decided to follow that career, marry that certain someone, you
decided to have kids, you decided to send that email, introduce yourself to that
person or apply for that job, etc.

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In nearly every way, it is the decisions you’ve made in the past that have determined
where you are today.

And that rule also applies to where you are in your trading journey.

I have lost count of the number of times in the past that I’ve made bad decisions -
both in life (I’ve made some big ones) and when football trading.
Whenever I’ve lost, in around 75% of cases I can nearly always look back and see that
I made a bad decision to place a trade.

Whether I was being impulsive, didn’t check certain stats, didn’t pay attention to the
weather conditions or didn’t check if a team's top scorer was playing or not, I can
nearly always work out where I went wrong.

So here’s another quote to remember.

“Every trade starts with a decision. Are you basing your

decisions about a game on facts or assumptions?”

Try to remember that.

Before you enter a trade you need to take the time to undertake due diligence.

You may think that because these two teams have both had both teams score in their
last five games that it will happen again, but that is merely an assumption. You can’t
possibly know that.

On the other hand, if you wait 10-15 minutes before entering your trade and can
see that both teams are attacking hard and creating chances, you have just reinforced
your theory that both teams are more likely to score. Your decision to trade the game
is now warranted.

You’re now in a much better position to decide on whether a goal is imminent or not
unlike before when you only made an assumption that goals would flow.

You want to get to a point where EVERY trade is a good one.

What do I mean by that?

That EVERY game you pre-selected ticked all of the boxes and that there was
absolutely no reason not to trade it, either pre-match or in-play.

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That way, if you DO find a loser, it wasn’t because it was a bad selection, but rather
that things just didn’t go to plan this time. Sometimes the ball just refuses to go in.

If you can get to the point where you say “that was a good trade” even when you
lose, you will have turned a corner and will be more likely to accept your losses more
readily. Another crucial aspect of trading.
You will win over the long term if you can act with certainty on any of your selections
and that there was every reason to trade the game.

When making a selection you should always ask yourself the question:

“Is there any reason why I shouldn’t be trading this game?”

So looking for reasons to NOT trade a game rather than looking for reasons TO trade
it. Big difference!

As you may know, with many of my own trades, I will wait at least 10-15 minutes or
so before dripping in my stake. That way, I get to see how a game is developing rather
than entering before kick-off only to find out that the game is dead with neither side
looking to score.

It happens! And it can happen for a lot of reasons such as tactics, the weather,
missing players, upcoming Champions League games, busy schedules or maybe both
teams would just be happy with a draw etc.

You may miss an early goal but so what? Better to miss one or two early goals than to
pick 20 bad selections that put a dent in your bank and knock your confidence.

Developing A Winning Mindset

Trading is hard. There is no easy and quick route to making cash when trading
football matches or any other sport.

Many websites and ‘trading gurus’ will try to sell you training packages promising
that you will become an expert almost overnight and make a fortune from the
exchanges.

Sadly this couldn’t be further from the truth. There are no shortcuts to success in
trading!

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If you are to become one of the small percentage of maybe 5% or less that make a
good second or possibly full time income from trading, you will need to forge the
correct mindset. This will then need to be coupled with discipline and the right
mental processes that will need to become second nature.

This can only be achieved with practice, patience and experience.

Success is usually a case of adopting the right processes to give you the desired
results. Once you can act with certainty and follow a process that you know will give
you a positive return over time, it is simply a case of executing those processes to
consistently extract a profit.

The reason only a small percentage of traders win is that they are doing something
you are not. If you want to be a success you have to emulate those who have already
successfully travelled that journey.

Football Trading Should Be Seen As a Business

This is exactly how you should see your trading activities.

Your wins are your profits and your losses are your expenses.

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If you want to make a serious part-time or even full-time income trading football
matches, you will need to take it seriously from the outset. Even when using small
stakes.

I assure you that a decent second income is easily achievable if you take it seriously
and adopt the right mindset.

This also means logging all of your trades in a spreadsheet - win or lose!
You need to be meticulous in recording your activities so you can analyse the data
and see where you are going right or wrong. If you don’t like spreadsheets, make a
note of your trades in a notepad. At the very least make a log of what went right and
wrong with each trade.

Bankroll and Money Management

I recommend you start with a bankroll of around £500, however, a smaller bank of
£250 is also fine to get up and running.

The stakes that you use will be determined by the size of your bankroll. As a guide, I
use 2% of my bankroll. So 2% of £500 gives me a starting stake of £10.

As my bank increases, so do my stakes. This is called compounding and means that

my stakes grow as I win more but are reduced if I lose. This acts like a thermostat
and means you should never lose your bankroll.

Don’t let that scare you. I assure you that you will never be anywhere near losing
your bank. As long as you maintain your discipline.

So if my bank was now £600, my stake would be £12. So always 2%. You could use 1
or 3% stakes if you wish. Just make sure you compound and increase your stakes as
your trading bank grows.

Chapter 2

How To Trade The O2.5 and BTTS Markets

I recently started my 5K Challenge with the aim of turning a £500 bank into
£5,000.

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An important aspect to the challenge is to fully document my progress and show
others that with a little time, effort and patience you can make a consistent profit
from football trading if using the right approach.

At the time of writing, I currently post all of my selections for free to my Telegram
channel which you can find here https://t.me/myfootytrading

I also post to the website at https://www.myfootballtradingsystem.com

I’m not sure how long it will take to turn £500 into £5,000 but it could take a couple
of years or more. I aim to make around 5-10 pts profit each month with this system.
However, if I were to make just a few points profit each month, this would still be a
very good result as I will be compounding my profits once the bank reaches a certain
point.

The two main markets on Betfair that I use are O2.5 (Over 2.5 Goals) and BTTS
(Both Teams To Score).

These also happen to be two of the most popular markets on the Betfair Exchange
and usually means that there is a good amount of liquidity available. That way we
never have any problems getting our bets matched or trading out quickly when we
need to.

Further down, I will show you how to find your own selections.

Combining the Different Markets

If I combine a trade, I will just split my stake between the two markets. So if my stake
was £10, I will place approximately £5 on the Over 2.5 and £5 on the BTTS.

If not, I will use my stake on a single market, so O2.5 or BTTS, although in most
cases I will be looking to enter both markets where possible.

Around 11% of all football matches end in a 1-1 draw. It is the most popular scoreline.
By combining BTTS instead of just backing O2.5, you protect yourself with half your
stake.

So if during the match it goes 1-1, in most cases you will have at least a scratch trade
with another goal giving you the full profit.

The fact that we are choosing selections that have a high probability of ending with
both teams scoring means it also makes perfect sense to do this where possible.

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I will use BTTS in the majority of my trades. When you think about it, you want
games that have a high probability of both teams scoring as this means you are more
likely to see a few goals.

You don’t want a one-sided game where one of the teams goes in front and then can’t
be bothered to score any more. We need both teams going for the win, not just one.
We also want teams that not only score a lot of goals, they also need to concede them
as well. Teams that have tight defences are therefore not ideal if you are looking for
goals.

Saying that, you could use just O2.5, especially if the over 2.5 price is considerably
higher than the BTTS price.

However, the two markets are normally closely aligned. When there are three goals
or more, both teams usually score so wherever possible try to enter both O2.5 and
BTTS markets.

If both markets have a similar price of say 1.80 I will usually split my stakes between
both markets, however, this will depend on how the game is progressing. If just one
team is dominant, I will stick with over 2.5. If both are pushing for a goal, then
adding BTTS into the mix makes perfect sense.

Taking Advantage of Time Decay

Time decay is one of the ways in which we gain our edge and maximise our profits.
A lot of the games that I trade will have an over 2.5 goals price or BTTS price of
around 1.6 (or lower) at kick-off. And that’s perfectly fine.

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To be honest, it’s not so much about the price, but more about the value I am
getting. (See the section further down on value)

The Betfair markets are very efficient. If you see a game that has a low price for these
markets prior to kick-off there’s a reason for it. It’s because there is a very good
probability that the outcome is going to occur. Obvious right?

On the other hand, if a match is 2.0 (evens) at kick-off for O2.5, there is a greater
chance that there isn’t going to be three or more goals. At least not according to the
‘Wisdom of the Crowds’. Although, the crowds aren’t always right!

The O2.5 and BTS markets are at their most efficient at kick-off.

The fact is that the vast majority of goals are not scored for at least 10-15 minutes
into a match. Teams generally look to size up their opponents in the opening minutes
and look for weaknesses.

We take advantage of this as time decay means that the price on the O2.5 and BTTS
markets will naturally drift giving us a better price and the potential for a much
bigger profit than if we had just entered at kick-off.

Entering Your Trade - Drip, Drip, Drip!

Before I enter any trade, I will wait at least 10-15 minutes or even longer if there is
no sign that the teams are creating chances to score.

I never take a price of less than 1.60. There’s just no real return in entering a trade
before this price point.
I also drip back my stakes into the markets, so the longer a game is 0-0, I will
consistently drip my stakes in at specific intervals. This means that I take advantage
of the time decay and get a better price. If a goal goes in, fine. I just let that part of
the trade run and cancel any unmatched bets.

As an example, in most cases I will be looking to back both Over 2.5 goals and
BTTS for approximately 0.5 pts each.

This can mean an instant profit or at least a scratch trade if both teams score early in
the match. Ideally, I will want the odds to reach at least 1.70 or 1.80 before entering
which shouldn’t be a problem if you are waiting 10-15 minutes or more.

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I provide you with some example trades further below, however, I will give you an
overview first.

So let’s say a game starts with the over 2.5 goals price at 1.60 and the BTTS price at
1.55.

⚽ I will wait for at least 10/15 minutes and then check Sofascore.com to see if
the teams are creating quality chances. By quality chances I mean shots
inside the box and/or corners. This is important! More on this further

⚽
below.
If they are, I will start entering some of my stake into the over 2.5 goals

⚽
market first.
So if the price was 1.80 I will enter around a quarter of my one point stake or
0.25 pts. If my one point stake was £10 I would back over 2.5 goals for £2.50

⚽
@ 1.80.
Once the BTTS price got to a similar price, I would then back BTTS for
another quarter or in this example, £2.50. This of course is only if I can see

⚽
that both sides are creating chances.
Once the over 2.5 price hits 2.0 I will enter another £2.50 as long as the

⚽
chances are continuing to be created.
Once the BTTS also reaches approximately 2.0, I will enter my final 0.25 pts of
£2.50.

At this point I would have invested the following:-

⚽ Backed over 2.5 goals for £2.50 @ 1.80

⚽ Backed over 2.5 goals for £2.50 @ 2.00
⚽ Backed BTTS for £2.50 @ 1.80
⚽ Backed BTTS for £2.50 @ 2.00
This is a very simplified example. In reality, my approach is a little more flexible
and how much I invest and into which market will depend on what is happening
in-play. My stake may well be larger than £10.

Ideally, I want to get at least 80% of my stake back if both outcomes occur. So if my
one point stake was £10 I would want a profit of £8 back. However, in many cases I
will be looking for more, hopefully 100% plus.

Once again, in reality this may not be achievable for every trade due to goals coming
before you have entered all of your stake, however, your aim should always be to try

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and maximise your profits. You also need to remember to protect your bank at all
costs. More on that can be found in the exiting your trade section below.

Like I mentioned previously, I will wait at least 10-15 minutes before entering the
trade. I am happy to wait 30 minutes or more if I need to as I am never in a rush
to lose my money.

By this time the prices could be 2.0 or more which is fine and will mean a much
bigger potential profit.

I recently analysed around 400 of my previous 5K Challenge trades and one thing
that I discovered was that the average time that the first goal being scored was 29
minutes. That’s right....29 minutes! After this amount of time, the price on the Over
2.5 or BTTS would have drifted significantly.

We don’t have to wait so long of course (although I am happy to if the match starts
quietly) as 10-15 minutes is usually enough.

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You can read more about my findings here - “Is This The Optimum Minute To Enter
An O2.5/BTTS Trade?”

By waiting, the price I take is much greater than it was at kick-off. This means that in
many cases I can aim for a profit of at least 100% of my original stake. As the price
rises, I keep dripping in my one point stake.
You could start dripping your stake in at kick-off, but as highlighted above, the price
you get will be far less which will mean smaller profits.

Personally, I recommend waiting in-play to make sure that the potential for a goal
is there. For this, I make sure there has been a sufficient number of quality goal
attempts and ‘Sustained Pressure’ from either side to warrant entering my trade.

This helps to protect my bank AND maximise my profits.

In-Play Analysis - (Sustained Pressure)

To check if there is sustained pressure (if not watching the match), you will need to
use either the Sofascore’s App or Website, both have the same data. Personally, I
prefer the app as I can use this when I’m not sitting at my PC.

You can use the following links below for the website and apps.

Website: https://www.sofascore.com
Android App:
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.sofascore.results&hl=en
Apple: https://apps.apple.com/app/sofascore-live-score/id1176147574

You can also watch the game if convenient and you have the time to do so.

In the screenshot from Sofascore.com below you can see three games I traded this
weekend (17th/18th July 2021).

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The game at Tromso started fairly slowly, however, after 25 mins or so you can see
the green of Tromso become more prominent as they increased the pressure.
The first goal then went in soon after on 29’.

Rosenborg then equalised on 35’ to give me a profit of more than one point.

That’s an almost perfect trade. Notice how I had split my stakes between the two
markets?

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I also traded the other game that can be seen further up, Stromsgodset v Stabaek.

The first goal was scored on 35’ by Stabaek with the home side equalising two
minutes later on 37’. Another perfect 5K Challenge trade giving me a 0.85 pts profit.

In the trades above, I waited for signs of sustained pressure and started to drip my
stakes in after around 15 minutes. This ensured that I was not only getting a better
price but also being patient, gradually entering my stakes based on the in-play stats.

Waiting for sustained pressure is my preferred approach. By doing this, you can
time your entry into the trade more precisely, meaning a better price and more value.
You also have much more control over the trade.

If you drip your stakes in from kick-off, the game may be dead for 15 minutes or
more. That’s a waste of money really and is why I prefer to wait at least 10-15
minutes before taking my position. If the game is still quiet I will wait until 30
minutes If I have to.

Don’t be afraid to miss the odd goal. It will happen, but if the price wasn’t very high
to start with, you haven’t lost much have you?

Remember to trust in the stats. In most cases goals WILL come, you just have to be
patient and make sure you have a good amount of your stake in the market when it
does.

Although sustained pressure from one of the sides is a good indicator, for me the
most important thing is that the teams are also creating quality chances to score.

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 In-Play Analysis - (Goal Signals)

Pressure from the teams is all well and good, however, there are two key indicators
that I look for in those first 15 minutes and beyond which will suggest to me that
goals are coming.

These are:-

✅ Shots from inside the box

✅ Corners
Attacking vigorously is all well and good but if the defences are solid and teams are
only taking shots at goal from 30 yards out there’s no point in entering our trade.

We need to make sure that there has been at least one or two shots from inside the
box and one or two corners if possible before entering our trade.

You can see in the screenshot below from the game I traded at Stromsgodset which
shows that just prior to the goal there were 4 shots from inside the box and 2
corners.

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Or the other game I traded between Tromso and Rosenborg.

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Once again you can see the goal indicators with 3 corners and 3 shots from inside
the box!

Unfortunately, some goals will come out of the blue with no prior warning. There
isn’t much you can do about that. You have to accept you will miss one or two early
goals.

I would rather miss the odd goal than take my position too early, have to wait 30
minutes for the first goal, or maybe not even see a goal at all!

Many people trade the under 2.5 goals market, looking to take money from impatient
traders. They know that many games will not see an early goal and look to scalp a few
ticks profit before getting out around 15-20 minutes.

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By going in from the start, you are just feeding them.

So remember! Wait 10-15 minutes, look for the goal signals and then enter your
trade when the time is right. You will take a bigger price and make larger profits in
the long run. Boom. ;-)

Exiting Your Trade and Common Scenarios

Once you have entered your trade, all you need to do is wait for the first goal to be
scored. In most cases, you won’t be trading out after the first goal. You will nearly
always come out at two goals or in some cases go for the third. This will depend on
the timing of the goals and which team/s have scored.

Below I list some of my own thought processes for possible scenarios when trading
these markets.

It’s not an exact science, but over time, you should start to develop consistent
patterns as to when you exit a trade based on how the game is developing.

Backed O2.5 and BTTS

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1-0/0-1 at half-time - Given that we still have 45 minutes to play and most goals
occur in the second half, then I definitely stay in 100%. The only way I wouldn’t is if
there had been a red card, in which case I would most likely cash out.

If you think about it when a goal has been scored the whole dynamics of a game will
change. The trailing side will now have no choice but to change tactics, open up and
go for an equaliser. This presents opportunities for both teams meaning a good
probability of more goals in the match.

1-1 early in the half or at half-time - In a lot of cases, I am inclined to just come
out on this scenario and take a good profit. If my BTTS had been matched that would
have won me half the trade with a good profit also on the O2.5. Take the profit.

If the game goes 1-2/2-1 at any point in the first half, job done. You may have only
been matched on part of your stake, depending on when the goals were scored, but
profit is profit.

Backed O2.5 Only

1-0/0-1 in the first half - I will in most cases stay in if backing O2.5 goals only. The
touch paper has been lit so generally, the game should progress with more goals.
Stay in!

1-1/2-0/0-2 - If there have been two first-half goals I have two choices. Firstly, I can
just come out for a decent profit (perfectly fine to do this) or I can lay the overs for
the same stake and either make a bigger profit if there is another goal or make
scratch if no more goals are scored.

The decision you make will also depend on who scores. If the favourite goes 2-0 up, I
will come out. They will most likely park the bus and just kill the game. No point in
going for any more goals. If it is 0-2 and the underdog is two up, I will possibly stay
in as it is very likely that the favourite will get at least one goal back.

Sometimes, I will wait five minutes before exiting after two goals as often goals can
go in soon after. I have lost count of the number of games where I exited on two goals
only to see another go in within a few minutes.

Another option is to remove some of your liability as the game progresses and
there are no further goals. So if my full stake has been matched and there are two
early goals, I may let the trade run, but at certain points remove some of my
liability in £2 chunks laying over 2.5 and/or BTTS. This has become my favoured
approach. Drip in, drip out!!

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1-1 in the first half - This can be tricky when just trading over 2.5. When were the
goals scored? Is there much profit to be taken? Can I lay over 2.5 and make a good
profit of say 50% still? If so, I will probably do that.

Once again, I have also lost count of the number of times that I was expecting a goal
but it failed to materialise. Very annoying to go from 50% profit early in the game to
100% loss at the end of it.

If you can make a 50% or more profit at any point, you should consider taking the
profit or at least remove all or some of your liabilities. Remember to control your
trade and your liabilities based on what is happening in-play.

Like I mentioned earlier, if I’ve backed O2.5/BTTS combined and the game goes 1-1,
I will sometimes let it run to see if I can get another goal. I will make scratch or
thereabouts if there are no more goals so nothing much is lost. If there are 30 mins
or more left I would say it is worth it. It’s all about weighing up probabilities and risk
versus reward.

Be cautious, but if the probabilities are in your favour let it run! Just be consistent
with all your trades.

If Liverpool are at home and the game is 1-1 and there are 45 mins to play would you
expect another goal? I would.

If Man City were playing a mid or bottom of the table team and trailing 0-1 at
half-time would you stay in if trading over 2.5 goals or come out? I would stay in,
wouldn’t you?

If you had backed O2.5 and BTTS, the score was 1-0 and there was a red card with
the trailing team down to 10 men, would you stay in or exit the trade? I would exit as
it is less likely they will score with the team in front in full control with no real need
to score any more goals.

It’s all about probabilities!

Another thing I wanted to touch on is exiting at the right time.

From my own experience, exiting a trade when I know I should is the hardest thing
to do, this includes knowing when to take a loss. This is when the “Fear Of Missing
Out” or FOMO is at its strongest.

24
Something you can do to combat this is to exit when your loss gets to 50% and exit
when your profit exceeds 50% of your initial stake.

If a match is 0-0 at around 60’, it is probably wise to trade out to minimise your
losses as it is rare for three goals to be scored in the last 30 mins, although it does
happen from time to time.

Personally, my approach is to wait until 60’ before exiting for a slightly larger loss,
especially if lots of chances are being created. At this point, you can be looking at
around 75% loss of your original stake.

I am acutely aware of the number of goals that are scored in the second half of
football matches. If I can hang on and find a goal or two, I will quite possibly be able
to make scratch.

To a degree, unless a game is particularly lively throughout, you shouldn’t just keep
adding more of your stake. If a game starts well but fizzles out, don’t keep just
throwing more money at it!

By all means, keep dripping your stakes in, but only if chances are being created
and goals seem likely.

25
 Chapter 3

Our Criteria For a Selection

My selection process has changed considerably over the last couple of years. I am
always looking at ways of increasing my strike rate to get more bang for my buck.

In this section of the guide, I will show you what I’m looking for in order to make a
match a selection for the 5K Challenge including the tools that I use.

I will then show you a step-by-step process you can follow to find your own selections
using the same method that I use.

What I Look For In A Selection

When looking for games to trade for this system, I’m looking for several things.

These I consider to be my core ingredients to find games with a high probability of

goals.

26
My primary filters are:-

✅ H2H Stats - In testing, the head to head stats have proven to be a very good
indicator as to whether there will be over 2.5 goals. Whenever possible, I try to
choose games where the last three league fixtures have gone over 2.5 or close
to it. These must, however, reflect the current game in which it is being
played. So if the match is Liverpool v Man City, we want to only check the last

✅
three played at Anfield. More on H2H can be seen below.
Value - This point is probably the most important and is something the vast
majority of punters and traders overlook. The truth is that if you’re not betting
with value, you will most likely lose in the long run. More on the subject of

✅
value can be found further below.
First & Second Half Goals - Although we don’t always want early goals, we
do want at least one goal in the first half where possible. This will mean the
game in most cases will open up with further goals. For this I want both teams
to have a combined first-half goals percentage of at least 70% for the season. I

✅
also like to select teams that have a strong probability of second half goals.
Recent Form - Generally speaking, if the xG stats are good, the current form
should also be ok, however, just because a team has been playing well and
creating chances does not mean they have been scoring. I will also check the
teams last few games (home and away) to make sure there is nothing to be

✅
concerned about such as 0-0’s or one of the teams consistently failing to score.
xG (Expected Goals) - Over the last year or so I have become an xG convert.
If you don’t know much about xG or ‘Expected Goals’ I will cover the topic a
little further below.

The following are the thresholds that I look for combined for both teams in the
current season.

Betfair Market Minimum Threshold

Over 1.5 Goals >85%

Over 2.5 Goals >65%

BTTS >65%

FHG (First Half Goals) >70%

Whether I am using the xG method or the seasonal stats using websites listed below,
these are my minimum thresholds. If the game does not meet ALL of these
thresholds, it is not considered!

27
One other thing I will do before trading a game is to check things like the weather,
key players being injured and other factors that may cause that WTF! moment
when you realise that a game is not going to plan.

Bad weather, for example, can make playing conditions difficult and lead to low
scoring games. Same for missing players. If a team's star striker is out, this could
mean a change of strategy and fewer scoring opportunities.

Sometimes teams can have a tight schedule and play a lot of games in a short space of
time. They may also have big Champions League games coming up. Both of these
things can lead to WTF! moments. Something to be aware of and take into
consideration.

Be Patient - Don’t Over Trade

I only want to trade the best and strongest selections to give myself every
opportunity of finding goals. Some weekends I may have half a dozen selections or
more, other times I may only have two or three.

I will not trade games unless they meet my stringent selection criteria.

If there is nothing to trade, so be it. Don’t stress about it, there will be plenty of
future games to trade. One of the biggest downfalls of new traders is
OVERTRADING. Be patient!

When I first started football trading it wouldn’t be unusual for me to trade a dozen or
so games on a Saturday! Not only was I spending my life working at my computer, I
was also spending many hours each weekend trading lots of matches. Absolutely
exhausting, not to mention a pain in the butt for the wife and kids!

Like I always say, trading is all about being patient. The most successful and
profitable traders are patient and follow a strict trading process. They also don’t let
their emotions cloud their judgement.

Trading in essence is simple. Find an edge where you are getting value, execute the
trades effectively and look to win more than you lose over time. It’s that simple.
However, it takes patience and self discipline. If you can’t control your urges and
only enter a trade when everything is in your favour, you will NEVER come out on
top!

28
I’ve been trading for years and I still have to battle with the mindset aspect of
trading. I’m not a monk! I feel the pressures such as FOMO just like anyone else,
however, these I have far more control.

xG - Expected Goals

In this part of the guide, I want to touch on what has become one of the most
important elements of my selection process.

xG or ‘Expected Goals’ calculates how many goals a team was expected to score based
on the quality of the chances they created in their previous games.

When you compare actual goals to xG expected goals, we get a much better
understanding of whether a team was lucky or unlucky in that match.

A single scoreline does not always reflect how well a team performed. A team could
have created a lot of good chances but failed to put them away. They could have lost
to a team that didn’t create half as many chances. It happens, A LOT.

Ever wonder why you get so many unexpected results at the weekend with teams
winning that shouldn’t have? xG can often explain it. Maybe the team that won
finally started putting those chances away that they had failed to do in previous
games.

Opta was the company that created xG. They analysed thousands of games to value
goal attempts from different positions on the pitch. For example, a penalty is rated as
0.76 xG as you would expect it to be scored 76% of the time on average.

Shots from outside of the area are given far less weight, say 1 or 2%, because they are
scored less often. Headers are valued less by xG as they are considered to be harder
to score.

By analysing xG stats, we can determine how teams are playing rather than just
looking at the raw results and number of goals scored.

Over time, a team’s position in the league table should correlate with their xG score
for the season. So a team that had been outperforming their xG score, will unlikely be
able to continue with their good results. Conversely, a team that has been
underperforming will pick up and start getting better results.

29
You could write a whole book on xG so I don’t want to go into the subject too much.
Just know that you can use it as a part of your selection process, which I will show
you further below.

If you would like to read more about xG, I would recommend the book, “The
Expected Goals Philosophy” by James Tippett. It’s an interesting read.

The two websites that I use for xG data is https://footballxg.com/ and

https://www.infogol.net/en

** NOTE: From September 2021, the Football xG website will be charging a yearly
subscription fee of £119 for access to their xgCore spreadsheet.

This will of course eat into your yearly trading profits, so you may prefer to choose
one of the free methods featured below. They are just as effective and will in no way
hinder your efforts to find winning selections.

Head to Head (H2H) Trends

Another thing I want to touch on as a part of our selection process is the Head to
Head or H2H stats. These are the historical stats of the matches between the two
teams.

To be honest, this isn’t something I considered too much in the past. However, after
some extensive research, testing and number crunching of my own stats, I now feel
that this IS an important consideration when finding your selections.

We all know that there are regular fixtures between teams that end with a low
number of goals or in some games, particularly some derby games, end in the
dreaded 0-0.

In other head-to-head’s, some teams see an abundance of goals.

Why this happens is unclear, but one thing is for sure, the bookies don’t like to make
punters aware of such trends. But how can historical results affect an upcoming game
which could be a year or more later?

I have some theories on this...

30
Teams style of play or strategies - We all know that certain teams favour certain
formations, strategies and a certain style of play. When some teams meet, their set
up or style of play facilitates an open game with lots of attacking play and goals.

Like elephants, some teams have good memories - Perhaps some teams and
managers have the results of previous games buried in their subconscious memories.
When the two teams meet again they almost play out a similar match?

Hard to shake off past performances - Or perhaps an opposing team is

considered a ‘bogey team’ and this plays on the minds of the players, affecting their
performance.

Some strikers and teams can have a poor scoring record against a certain team and
this can be hard to shake off.

Sport is not only physical, it’s psychological as well.

Whatever the reason, the phenomenon exists. Just look at the head to head stats on a
number of games and you will spot the patterns.

When I make my own selections, I want to see that the last three previous LEAGUE
games went over 2.5 (or close to it where possible) AND at that venue. So if the game
I am looking at is Tottenham v Chelsea I only want to look at the last three league
games between the two at Tottenham’s ground. I don’t want to be looking at the
reverse fixture, i.e Chelsea v Tottenham.

At the very least, I want to make sure that there haven’t been too many 1-0’s or 0-0’s
in previous games. If so I could well drop the game just based on that.

31
 Finding Value Is Crucial To Long-Term Profits

To be profitable in the long-term when trading, you have to bet with VALUE.

When you buy a new TV, car or anything else, you want to know that you are getting
value for your money. Betting is no different! We want to know that the risk versus
reward ratio is in our favour.

Most people will bet or trade and think, “That looks like a good price!”, but have no
idea as to whether the odds on offer make it a value bet or not.

So they take a subjective view which is based on their own limited knowledge.

If you follow the 5K Challenge tips that I share on the site and my Telegram channel,
you can be sure that I’ve spent considerable time profiling my selections.

However, if you want to find your own selections, you need to make sure you are
getting a good price.

So how do we do that?

32
My approach is to use the Football xG website where possible which provides a
weekly spreadsheet which lists most of the top-flight games and includes xG
(Expected Goals) and Poisson Distribution stats which it compares to the prices on
offer.

It then highlights whether the odds are of value compared to the probability of the
outcome occurring.

The xG spreadsheet used to be free, however, as I previously mentioned, from

September 2021, there will be a charge of £119 per year to access the spreadsheet.

You can find the subscription options at https://footballxg.com/ if you want to use
the xG data method to find your selections. There will be a free version (xgFree)
which I believe will contain the xG stats for the EPL, Bundesliga and La Liga only.

As I usually advocate starting with a trading bank of £500 and £10 per point, £119
per year is a significant chunk that you will need to take into the equation when
working out your profits.

For this reason, I would say that most people will most likely choose to use one of the
other sites below which are completely free.

To be fair, as we are usually waiting at least 10-15 minutes before dripping our
stakes in, we are usually finding lots of value as the price drifts.

For this reason, it isn’t essential that you base your selections on xG data to ascertain
whether there is value or not, although the more data you have at your disposal the
better.

Chapter 4

How to Find Your Own Selections

In the following section, I’m going to show you how to find your selections for the
O2.5/BTTS strategy.

If you follow me on Telegram or the website, you will know that I regularly post my
O2.5/BTTS selections so people can follow along.

Below are the exact methods I use and which have made me some excellent profits.

33
You are more than welcome to just use my selections or use them to compare with
your own, but I would always encourage you to put a little effort in yourself where
possible and learn to find your own.

I’m currently using a number of tools to profile matches and find my selections.

These are:-

⚽ SoccerStats - A great free site that I often use for profiling games when
⚽ AdamChoi - Another fantastic and very easy to use football stats website
required. https://www.soccerstats.com/matches.asp

⚽ Football xG - I use the free xgFree spreadsheet which is updated weekly at

which I also recommend. It’s also free. https://www.adamchoi.co.uk/

https://footballxg.com/blog/ There is an xgCore spreadsheet which covers the

majority of leagues, although this now has a yearly subscription. The xgFree
spreadsheet is limited to just a handful of leagues.

You can use just the Football xG spreadsheet to find your selections, one or two of
the other sites or a combination.

For simplicity, I will break my process down into simple steps for all three methods
below.

Selection Method #1 - Football xG Spreadsheet

To view the Football xG spreadsheet head to https://footballxg.com/blog/

So in the screenshot below, you would click the blue link to read the latest post.

34
You would then need to click either the xgFree or spreadsheet link highlighted in
the following screenshot. Alternatively, you may have to choose the xgCore option
which is a subscription based spreadsheet, however, it does contain xG data for
nearly all leagues.

35
You should be able to view the spreadsheet with almost any web browser on desktop,
tablet or mobile device.

Once you click the link, you should then see something like this.

36
All that data can look a little intimidating at first, however, we are only after
extracting specific info which is very easy to do.

For me, the spreadsheet helps to identify key stats all in one place which can save a
lot of time.

Firstly, it shows me the probability of both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals. It then
shows you the probability in terms of percentage and shows you the current price. It
will then indicate whether or not the price is of value. The greener it is the more value
there is (overpriced) with the figures in red indicating less value (underpriced).

The spreadsheet also shows a whole host of other metrics you can use. One section
that is important to me is the area where it shows the percentage of first and
second-half goals for the last 10, 5 and 3 games. You can use this to see if the teams’
games are improving in terms of goals in both halves.

In the previous shot there was one game that initially stood out for the day I was
interested in and that was Standard v Oostende.

37
These three columns show the total xG for both teams (4.9) as well as the current
odds and the percentage of value in the price.

So as you can see, in this particular game at 1.80, the over 2.5 would represent 34%
value.

When I first open up the spreadsheet the initial thing I am looking for is the number
in the ‘Gross xG’ column.

The next thing to do is scroll all the way along to your right so you get to the section
titled ‘Poisson Output’.

You should then see something similar to this.

38
This section is the most important and shows us the probability based on xG of over
1.5 goals, over 2.5 goals as well as BTTS. These are the three I am looking for.

This is key information that we need and will give us the probabilities of over 2.5 and
BTTS based on xG (Expected Goals).

AT this point I want to remind you of what my own thresholds are for each of these.

✅ Over 1.5 - 85% or higher

✅ Over 2.5 - 65% or higher
✅ BTTS - 65% or higher
I am not concerned about the over 3.5 figure.

The higher the numbers the better.

If you scan slightly to the left, you can see that the predicted xG for these two teams
is 1.89 and 3.01 (image above). These are healthy numbers and means that these
teams should create plenty of chances to score goals.

Note that this particular game was an early season match with the teams only having
played three or four games so far. Always be especially cautious with early season
and end of season games.

39
If you scroll to the right a touch you can see that the current price for over 2.5 goals
which can be viewed under the section ‘Odds feeding into xG Model’ is 1.80

The overs is actually a 90% chance, so the true odds should be closer to 1.11.
Obviously 1.80 is much better! ;-)

Note, the odds are sometimes a little out so you need to check that to make sure there
is still value on offer. On this occasion, the odds on Betfair for over 2.5 goals was
around 1.54 which is significantly lower than 1.80. However, 1.54 is still a 65%
chance whereas the probability according to the xG model is 90% so still lots of
value.

And if we don’t enter the trade until at least 10 or 15 minutes are played, the price is
going to be a lot bigger than 1.54.

In most cases the price is not an issue as waiting 15 minutes or more can see them
drift significantly.

I just want to take a moment to reiterate that pre-game stats are all well and good
(and they are of value), but the most important part of the puzzle is to check the
in-play stats. This is one of the advantages of waiting at least 10-15 minutes to get
into a game.

40
Something else that I look at is the number of first and second half goals scored in
the last 10 games for both teams. To do this we scroll to the left until we get to the
light green section that says ‘Last 10 Games’.

From this I can see that in the last 10 matches, there had been a goal for both teams
in the first half in 80% of games. So there was an 80% chance of at least one first half
goal.

There was also a 40% chance of at least two goals in the first half.

And for the second half figures (image below) we have 90% and 80% for Standard
and 90% and 50% for Oostende. Very good numbers and looking like there will be a
very good chance of a couple of goals in the second half as well.

41
If you find it difficult to scroll along and see the stats for the game you are interested
in, you can click the number next to the row (furthest left) and this will highlight the
whole row for easier reading.

There is an absolute wealth of information in this spreadsheet, however, in my view,

spending too much time analysing it could turn into a case of ‘analysis paralysis’.

So we are only looking to find out which games have the greatest probability for
goals, whether the odds on offer are fair/good and then check the in-play stats before
getting into our trade. Easy!

Selection Method #2 - SoccerStats

Soccerstats is one of my favourite football stats websites. Pretty much everything you
need to find for your selections can be found here.

The only issues you may find is that for some smaller leagues, the H2H stats will not
be available. If this is the case, you can use a site like Footystats.org

42
Remember, regardless of whether you are using the Football xG stats or one of the
other websites, we are looking for games with the following stats for both teams
combined.

✅ Over 1.5 goals - At least 85%

✅ Over 2.5 goals - At least 65%
✅ BTTS - At least 65%
✅ FHG (First Half Goals) - At least 70%
Soccerstats has always been one of my favourites. The layout on the desktop version
means you can quickly scan all of the games for the O1.5, O2.5 and BTTS stats all in
one view. I can then open each game up individually and take a more detailed look.

We can see key information here for +1.5, +2.5, BTTS, the number of clean sheets for
each team (CS) and the percentage of games they have failed to score (FTS). Total
goals or ‘TG’ is also a useful stat to know.

43
As of the time of writing, there is one game here that I have already profiled and
made a selection.

Can you see which one it is based on our thresholds?

Hopefully, you said Stromsgodset v Valerenga.

This match is instantly appealing as it meets my initial selection criteria.

Over 1.5 goals - 100% - PASS

Over 2.5 goals - 67.5% - PASS
BTTS - 67.5% - PASS

I now want to make sure that these teams score a fair amount of goals in the first
half.

44
Click on ‘Stats’ to the right of the game. (Note that if you are using a mobile device it
will be slightly different but all of the information as in the desktop version is still
available.)

You will then need to scroll down until you get to the section titled ‘Contextual
Averages’.

As a rule of thumb, I like to see a minimum of 70% for 0.5 first half goals.

The higher this figure the better. For this selection it was exactly 70%.

We can still find winners if there aren’t any first half goals, but it does make it a lot
easier if one of the teams is at least one goal ahead at half time so the trailing team
comes out in the second half looking to respond.

Just a couple of other sections on this page to check. The first is the section titled
‘Results Table’. This shows us the previous results for each team against other teams
in the league.

45
In the image below you can see that neither team has played other teams yet in
similar positions to today’s opponents, however, looking at the results so far this
season I am confident we can expect goals.

The last thing to check here are the half time and full time results for this season.

46
Valerenga had three 0-0’s away at half time but none at full time. Over 1.5 goals is
100%, so once again my confidence is high that we should see some goals in this one.

You will also want to scroll down and check the H2H stats for the teams. Make sure
there have been plenty of goals in past encounters between the teams. At least make
sure there have not been a lot of 0-0 or 1-0 scorelines.

This game actually finished 1-1 with goals on 19’ and 67’. I managed to make scratch.

Selection Method #3 - AdamChoi

Last but no means least is AdamChoi.

Although a little limited compared to the other sites in that it doesn’t display H2H
stats, it’s a great tool to use for a quick glance at the upcoming fixtures.

First thing to do is head to the site at https://www.adamchoi.co.uk/fixtures

Now select ‘Total Match Goals’, ‘Over 1.5’, ‘80%’ and ‘All previous matches’.

For this search we want to select all the matches where the home side at ‘home’ and
the away side ‘away’ has seen at least 85% of games go over 1.5 goals.

47
In the screenshot above, you can see the game from the Swedish Allsvenskan
between Malmo and Sirius was a possible with 100% for over 1.5 goals.

Now we need to drop the boxes down and change the over 1.5 match goals to over 2.5

We then get this.

So once again excellent with an average of 80% for over 2.5 goals between the two
teams.

Always remember to check the ‘home’ column for the home team and ‘away’ column
for the away team.

And now to check the BTTS.

48
Wow. 100% for Malmo and 80% for IK Sirius. An average of 90% for BTTS. Can’t be
bad!

So just a couple of things to verify now. I want to check the number of first half goals
for these two teams.

Click on the match and you will then need to scroll down to the bottom of the next
page and click on ‘Home/Away matches’.

Then scroll down until you see the line that says ‘Over 0.5 First Half Goals Total’.

So for these two teams there has been a first half goal in 90% of games so far this
season.

This game is a banger for sure. Really high stats and a high probability of goals.

49
Another good feature of Adam Choi is the match table where you can see how well
the team has got on against other teams in the table.

I like to look at how they have got on against similar teams to the one they are
playing in this match.

So Malmo have played three teams just above Sirius and won 3-1, 2-1 and 3-2. So
both overs and BTTS. And if we look at Sirius away, we can see the following.

50
So they have only played one team near the top this season which was Norrkoping
which ended 1-1. You can also see that in total they have scored in 4/5 away games.

Adam Choi doesn’t show you H2H so I can’t see if there are any anomalies in terms
of past games between the teams. To see that I will need to look at another site such
as Soccerstats or Footystats. The image below shows the H2H data from
Footystats.org

Nothing to deter me from trading the game there although Sirius has only scored one
goal at Malmo in the last three games played. Plenty of goals though.

As we know, the match finished 4-0 to Malmo.

And that’s it really!

IMPORTANT: Remember that pre-match stats are only half of the equation. You
also need to make sure that the game is showing the potential for goals before you

51
enter your initial stake. This is where in-play analysis comes in - a skill that all
football traders should be good at.

Make sure you study the section further up on In-Play Analysis, Sustained Pressure
and Goal Signals.

Trading Examples

Below I provide you with a number of screenshots of recent 5K Challenge trades.

The first match was between Odds BK and Viking in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

As you can see below, despite plenty of first half action we had to wait until the end of
the half before we found our first goal.

After around 15-20 minutes, I started to drip my stake into the over 2.5 goals and
BTTS markets. My current one point stake at the time of this match was around £16.
I was in for £15.

At the time of the goal I had a tiny profit for each trade.

On 46’, Odds went 2-0 up.

52
As you can see from the above screenshot, my profit on the overs was now £5.30 with
almost scratch on the BTTS.

On 60’, Viking pulled one back to make it 2-1. This ensured that I won both O2.5 and
BTTS trades.

Note that the screenshot above is for the match odds market. I had also traded LTD2
for this match and made a profit of £7.45 when Odds went two goals up.

Final profit for this one for the over 2.5 and BTTS trades was £13.53 for my £15
stake.

The next match was the Tromso v Rosenborg game.

53
You can see that I started to enter a small amount of my stake into the over 2.5 and
BTTS markets around 18’ or so.

54
Early in the match you could see that the signs were there that goals could be coming
with two shots from inside the box and a corner.

55
And the chances kept growing a few minutes later.

Then the first goal went in on 29’ which I anticipated.

56
By this time I had £10 of my stake entered into the markets. It would have been
more, however, I was a bit concerned that the prices were quite high prior to kick-off
so I was a little bit more conservative.

The first goal instantly gave me a profit on both markets so all I needed to do was to
now wait for the second.

And bingo! Rosenborg responded by scoring on 35’ to make it 1-1.

57
This meant that my BTTS trade was now a winner with a good profit on the over 2.5
goals trade.

I traded out soon after for a profit of £11.32 for my £10 stake. Job done.

I also traded the Stromsgodset v Stabaek game, although I don’t have screenshots for
that one.

58
Stabaek took the lead on 35’ with Stromsgodset equalising soon after on 37’.

This gave me an instant profit of £8.58 to my £12 stake.

Fred Friday made it 2-1 on 80’ to give Stromsgodset the win. You just have to love
that name, ‘Fred Friday’.

My next trading example was for an early season game between Fortuna Dusseldorf
and Werder Bremen.

As you can see, due to early goal signals I started to enter my stake in. After around
12 minutes I had placed just under half of my stake into the over 2.5 goals market.

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By 19’ I was in for 50% of my one point stake on the overs with a similar amount
added into the BTTS market.

In the following screenshot you can see the amount of chances after 17 minutes.

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So as you can see, Dusseldorf started to apply some pressure with a couple of shots at
goal (one from inside the box).

Then we can see that these figures had increased by 21’ with three shots from inside
the box. Bremen had also had a corner. All positive signals!

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So I was now happy that there had been sufficient action to warrant me entering my
trade and continued to drip my stake into both O2.5 and BTTS markets.

All we needed now was a goal to get us up and running.

We had to wait a little while with this one despite the early signs. The opener came
on 39’ from Werder Bremen.

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As you can see I now had a small profit on both markets.

At this point I could have taken a small profit or removed my liability to give me a
slightly bigger profit with more goals or scratch if the score remained the same.

My personal option at this stage would be to continue as there was now everything to
play for.

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Early in the second half the home side equalised to make it 1-1.

I had therefore won my BTTS trade and had a decent profit in the over 2.5 trade.

This is an almost perfect O2.5/BTTS trade with both teams finding the back of the
net early in the game, although not too early as I had managed to get my full stake in.

The match finished 2-3.

At 1-1, I could have slowly drip laid the over 2.5 goals trade but with the goals coming
early enough, it always makes sense to just trade out for a decent profit and move on.

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The next example was another early season Bundesliga 2 match between Paderborn
and Nurnberg.

As you can see, it was a quiet start with Nurnberg making the first move and applying
some pressure.

Unfortunately, I had only entered a small amount of my stake into both markets
when the first goal went in around 18’.

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And the BTTS.

Only being able to enter part of your stake is something that will happen fairly often.
A small profit is better than none at all.

The score remained 1-0 at HT at which point I was around scratch.

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On 54’, Nurnberg equalised to make it 1-1.

At this point I had won my BTTS trade and had a slightly bigger profit in the over 2.5
market.

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I decided to wait a little on this occasion to see if I could get another goal, which I did
around 58’.

Job done! A smaller profit but a profit all the same.

As I periodically update this E-Book I will be adding further trading examples to

future revisions.

What Are We Trying to Achieve?

So when you trade or bet on football or other sports, what are you hoping to achieve?

Do you even know what the end goal is?

Many don't. They just have this view that they want to hit the exchanges and "make
lots of money".

But is this realistic? After all, if you don't already know, there is NO get rich quick
aspect to betting or trading with only a small percentage of traders making a profit
over the long term.

What may be "lots of money" to you, maybe peanuts to someone else.

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So we all have our own definitions of what we want to achieve in terms of financial
gain. However, the objective is generally the same regardless as to whether we are
betting on football, horses, tennis or any other sport.

For me, trading is all about finding value or an edge over the long-term, which
can help to produce consistent profits to grow our trading banks.

It’s also about minimising losses, maximising profits and protecting the
bank at all costs.

And this is perfectly achievable if you adopt a professional attitude to your trading.

I personally look at football trading as a form of investing like I do when I buy stocks
and shares. I’m not looking for big profits over a short period of time. I’m looking for
steady, positive growth over time.

My personal aim is to grow my trading bank consistently over the long-term. If

I can get a 10% return on my monthly stakes (yield) that’s a great return.

If I compound my stakes as I go, my bank should grow nicely over time

outperforming anything you will get from most other forms of investment.

Not easy, but most definitely achievable.

And to achieve this you have to be PATIENT, adopt the right MINDSET and learn
to deal with your EMOTIONS as trading can be an emotional experience when our
money is on the line.

The key for me when trading is to minimise your losses and protect the bank.
If you can do that consistently I am confident you will see a positive return over the
long term.

If I can give you one piece of advice that would be to ask yourself the following
question before entering any trade.

“Is this the right time to enter this trade?”

This should then give you a brief moment to verify your decision and make sure you
are not entering your trade too early.

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 My Top Tips To Become A Winning Trader

You’ve nearly reached the end of this guide and I want to take the opportunity to
offer you my top tips and advice on how to win at football trading.

#1 - Start small: When starting out, make sure you use small stakes. If over a
month or two you can consistently come out on top with just £2 stakes, then and only
then should you slowly increase to £5, £10, £20 and beyond. If you can’t make a
profit with small stakes how are you ever going to do the same with larger stakes?

#2 - Be patient and disciplined: You’re probably bored of me saying this but it

really is vital that you work on your patience and self discipline. Trading is 80%
mental and 20% about execution.

#3 - Reduce your downside: This comes down to getting more value than you are
losing. So your downside needs to be less than your upside. Make sure you are
cutting your losses to protect your bank when things aren’t going to plan and letting
trades run when things are in your favour and more goals/profit looks likely. Either
remove your liability when you have some green or slowly drip out of your trades.

#4 - Don’t be greedy: I’ve lost count of the number of trades over the years where I
chased more profit only to lose after being ahead. Sole destroying to say the least.
Have it in your mind your entry and exit points and execute when you know you have
to. In the long run your bank will be maintained and you will avoid those emotional
rollercoaster rides. You know, the big highs and lows.

#5 - Stick to the process: As mentioned previously, trading is a PROCESS. You’re

a trader not a mug punter. Traders whether trading currencies, stocks or odds are
decision makers and analysts. Have a process including pre-match selection, a daily
schedule, entry/exit points, staking, bank management, recording trades etc.

#6 - Specialise: The best traders specialise in one or two sports. Things are so
much easier when you have a good knowledge of the sport you are trading. Also,
work on one or two strategies to start with and only add more to your portfolio once
you have mastered them.

#7 - Always be learning: There is always an opportunity to learn no matter how

long you’ve been trading. There is a wealth of free information on the web in regards
to Betfair trading. Take time to read more and study. If you can’t be bothered to
educate yourself, you’re not going to be successful.

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 Don’t be a Stranger

On a final note, I hope you’ve enjoyed reading this guide and learning about the 5K
Challenge approach to trading the over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets.

I hope that you feel it has been money well spent and that you have taken lots away
from it, which will ultimately help you to become a better football trader.

Please feel free to give me any feedback or just say hello if you want. I can only
improve this E-Book if people tell me what I did right and what I didn’t do so well.

I enjoy chatting with all my followers. If you have any questions or are unclear on
anything within this guide, please email me - rob@myfootballtradingsystem.com

Future E-Book Updates

As a big thank you for putting your trust in me and purchasing this E-Book, you will
be entitled to receive any future revisions, completely free of charge.

Whenever I update the guide, I will let you and my other followers know via the
website and my Telegram channel. I will also send you an email with a 100%
discount code so you can download it for free via my Payhip store.

All the best of success with your trading journey.

Keep it green!

Rob
My Football Trading System
https://www.myfootballtradingsystem.com

Updated: August 2021

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© 2021, Robert Griggs. All rights reserved.

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