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    Schedule Development (1x2)

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    Scheduling Professional (PMI-SP) Carlos Carranza Baez . Projet Manager PIMP Pyle PUP CCP PSP PRUE CPEM Wa First Edition SESION 4 Schedule Development KISS (Keep it Simple, Stupid) - A Schedule Development Principle Project Management x4" Del Facilitador Lima Peru LABORAL + Ingeniero Civil y Eléctico. + Mas de 15 afios de experiencia en gestin y direccién de proyectos. + Experiencia internacional en proyectos de inversién en energias renovables (Peru y Chile) y explotacién minera (Costa Rica) + 5 afios de experiencia en programas y proyectos de desarrollo para el Ministerio de Energia y Minas (Fondos de! BM, COSUDE, NORUEGA), + Mas de 10 afios de experiencia en proyectos de inversion en la empresa privada, + Trabajo bajo los estandar de la International Organization for Standardization 9001, 10006, 14000, 21500, 45001 CERTIFIED PROFESSIONAL AACE CCPPSP PRP PMI PIMP PgMP PMP PMI-RMP PMI-SP- poses ASEM CPEW MASTER NEA.MGL + alias de experiencia ejerciendo la docencia en pregrado y posgrado, + Facilitador principal de los cursos CCP PSP PRMP en Certificate Project Control. Objetives = Understand: ass! Pd ierserene ee The Process of Crating the Schedule What is Scheduling What is Schedule Model The different Types of Schedule The process for define Activities How Make Estimating Durations Relationships of Activities What is CPM, CCM and PERT Method The Total Float and Free Float How the Constraints Affect the Scheduling Process How can we review the Schedule Qualty What s the right way to request feedback of the Stakeholder about the Schedule Key Concepts = Project Management Process = 5.3. Create WBS = 6.1 Plan Schedule Management 6.2. Define Activities = 6.3. Sequence Activities 9.2. Estimate Activity Resources 6.4. Estimate Activity Durations 6.5. Develop Schedule 7.2. Estimate Cost 11.4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Bottom-up Estimating Analogous Estimating Parametric Estimating Basis of estimates Project Management Information Systems. Total Float and Free Float Decomposition Rolling wave planning Milestone and Activity list Hard Logic and Soft Logic Activity attributes Project calendars Resource optimization Leads and lags Schedule compression Resource leveling Monte Carlo simulation, PERT Contingency reserve or buffer (funds, budget, or time) PART 1 OVERVIEW SCHEDULE PLANNING Develop the work breakdown structure (WBS), organizational breakdown structure (OBS), control Peotone Went ce etc ule ee RE aCe LE) Bu ene Nom eon lat) |] TTC In order to ensure completion of the project scope. Tel eee LAL TA SK De eee eu em een eet gt = Work breakdown structure (WBS) = Organizational breakdown structure (OBS) Peewee eer ar kee ais eee arr ee eR ject rent oro x4'" Plan Schedule Management Lima Pers Plan Schedule Management is the process of establishing the policies, procedures, and documentation for planning, developing, managing, executing, and controlling the project schedule. { sain baad & + 1 Project charter + 4 Expert judgment + 1 Schedule + 2Project + 2Data analysis management plan management plan * Schedule Methodology + 3 Enterprise + Rolling wave planning environmental factors «Alternative analysis + 4 Organizational + 3Meetings process assets pe *" Create WBS Lima Peru Create WBS is the process of subdividing project deliverables and project work into smaller, more manageable components. Cok - * 1 Project * 1 Expert judgment * 1 Scope baseline management plan + 2Decomposition + 2 Project + 2 Project documents updates documents + 3 Enterprise environmental factors + 4 Organizational process assets Ad SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT LS ae ECO TASK <3 1 2) 3) 4) §) roject: rca" Schedule Development Lima Develop the work breakdown structure (WBS), organizational breakdown structure (OBS), control accounts (CA), and work packages through communication with subject matter experts and stakeholders and analysis of the contractual commitments. Define activities and milestones through communication with subject matter experts, decomposition, and application of scheduling policies and procedures. Estimate activity durations, utilizing subject matter experts and scheduling techniques such as three-point estimate, parametric, analogous and/or Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). Sequence activities, incorporating defined dependencies (internal, external, and cross programs) milestones, and constraints (for example, calendars, geography, contracts). Identify critical and near-critical path(s) using techniques such as Critical Path Method, Critical Chain, Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), and Monte Carlo simulation. Pe Schedule Development §) 7) 8) 9 Develop the project resource breakdown structure (RBS), determine resource availability, and assign resources to activities by working with functional managers, project managers, and project team members. Adjust schedule model based upon resource availability, available budget, and other known constraints. Align schedule with the overall program plan or integrated master plan (IMP), through review of enterprise objectives and contract documentation Analyze major milestones against statement of work (SOW), the contract, and/or memorandum of understanding 10) Perform schedule risk analysis using quantitative tools or techniques (for example, what-if scenarios, Monte Carlo simulation) 11) Obtain a consensus of the project customer, sponsor, project manager, and project team members. 12) Establish the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB), using organizational processes and standard techniques. SCHEDULING = Adescription of when each activity in a project can be accomplished and must be finished so as to be completed timely. The simplest of schedules depict in bar chart format the start and finish of activities of a given duration. More complex schedules, generally in CPM format, include schedule logic and show the critical path and floats associated with each activity. ass! Schedule Development = Once the project is defined and the contract awarded a detailed schedule of the work is developed. This detailed schedule is often based upon milestone dates and phasing information developed in the conceptual planning phase. The intent of the detailed schedule development is to model the processes that the stakeholders will use in the creation of the project. = Aschedule model is the planned effort necessary to complete the program/project successfully within the constraints and assumptions the parties have established Based on this definition it is imperative that each of the stakeholders has a part in the design and review process for the schedule. Schedule Development = Starting with the initial schedule model from schedule planning, schedule development allocates the available resources (e.g., labor, material, equipment, etc.) to activities in the schedule model in accordance with cost and resource planning and alternative allocation criteria while respecting project constraints affecting the schedule (e.g., milestone dates, phasing requirements, etc.), Schedule development generally includes iteratively refining the schedule planning (ie., planned durations, means and methods, workflow sequence or preferential logic) in a way that realistically, if not optimally, achieves project objectives for time (¢.g., milestones), cost (e.g., cash flow), and others (e.g., performance requirements). The primary outcome of the schedule development process is an as planned schedule model that becomes the schedule control baseline for project control plan implementation ass! Schedule Development = Schedule development puts an emphasis on the practitioner's knowledge of the schedule model and skills with scheduling tools. While aspects of the schedule development process and tool usage are mechanistic and conducive to semi-automation, schedule development cannot be automated because it is a predictive process working with activity durations affected by uncertain working environments and resource performance. Nor should planners/schedulers rely solely on cloned schedule models; each schedule model must be carefully vetted so that the product truly represents the current project plan. Schedulers must have an understanding of probability concepts to be effective and, as with planners, experience on projects and an understanding of the activities, is of great value. fase! PART 2.1 Psa IN |S ACTIVITIES py TaereehML ee Le Mela Reel communication with subject matter experts, decomposition, and application of scheduling tel ee Tte Meee oe To identify and document the work to be performed ar ee eR Dr eta ae into escola Re (Lae odgy CC emo Gt ee Lee _— Rai” Define Activities Define Activities is the process of identifying and documenting the specific actions to be performed to produce the project deliverables. + 2 Enterprise + 3 Rolling wave + 3Milestone list environmental planning + 4 Change requests * factors + 4 Meetings + 5 Project + 3 Organizational management plan process assets updates + 1 Project + 1 Expert judgment + 1 Activity list management plan + 2Decomposition + 2 Activity attributes pe ** Milestones Lima Peru = Milestone have a duration of zero days. = Milestones are key events dictating an important start or finish of a series of activities. Ex. Project start, MEP sign-off, substantial completion. = Milestones are either project imposed or contractual requirement or an internal metric for progress of the project in part or whole. In all schedule milestones should be agreed with all key stakeholders prior to approval of the baseline schedule. * Milestones can be tied to payments as well. Usually higher management cares more of the milestones of the project rather than going in details. = |f the milestones are monitored carefully during the project execution and making sure that the delay reasons if any are being corrected once it shows this will make sure a successful completion of the project in time. ject Retecraie se rite” — Activities = An activity has multiple components. Consider that an activity is the equivalent of arecord ina 2 database. Each record has multiple fields of 9 Requirements Management Plan data that define activity scope and 1 2 Requirements Document characteristics for reporting and management of [= # » # = feaorenersiacsty Natn ‘the work. The minimum components for an Luda lhe sokstn— amassed 399 wow # Scope Statement activity are: Perrrerer * Aunique alphanumeric identifier SNe = Aunique descriptive name, optimally 599 9 9 9 9 w & SchodleManagementPian phrased as verb-object. eee 000808 ee haviylin = Aduration Errrrrerrerrrss Individual activities have relationships and may ee ee ea have other attributes, such as: ooo oa 8a ae www wm NetworkDigrmojec Schedule " Cost and resource loading. FGUREG-1: Document Flow From the Charter to the Schedule (Waterfall. = Constraints Fe “Activities Lima Peru The further breakdown of the WBS into work packages are further decomposed into activities, which reflect direct work or indirect work support. The activity must be in conformance with WBS, OBS and CBS. ‘The Schedule activity is partly developed from the cost estimate as each BOQ line item preferred to be linked to the activity assigned to it -this makes sure that the whole scope is covered as well better assigning of costs and better managing and controlling of project. There are some activities which are tasks resource dependents and others are not. There is summary activities such as Leveling up of the WBS, Hammocks, Grouping bands, Level of effort. For an example an activity to show all the concrete works in one level (which includes walls, columns and slab) can be in a hammock and grouping of hammocks can be done to show the whole concrete works in the project as an example. When the activities are detailed, defined, constraints applied and covers the whole scope, the process of linking the activities will be more logical Project Se *" Hammock or Level of Effort Hammock Activity: An aggregate or summary activity. All related activities are tied as one summary activity and reported at the summary level. It has no duration of its own but derives one from the time difference between the two points to which it is connected. The hammock activity does not affect schedule dates of the activities it spans. (June 2007) Summary Task: A task that consists of a logical group of tasks, called subtasks. Primarily used for reporting purposes. See also: HAMMOCK ACTIVITY. (October 2013) Level of Effort (LoE): LoE is a type of activity that reports on a fragnet of activities over a period of time. An LoE activity's duration is dependent on the time frame from its earliest predecessor and latest successor activities. The term level of effort is also known as Effort Activity or Effort Driven Activity. ‘Apportinoned Effort: (2) Effort that cannot be readily measured or divided into discrete work packages, but its performance can be measured in proportion to other measureable efforts. (November 2014) pe *" Hard Logic and Soft Logic Lima Peru Preferential Logic - * (1) Contractor's approach to sequencing work over and above those sequences indicated in or required by contract documents. Examples include equipment restraints, crew movements, form reuse, special logic (lead/lag) restraints, etc., factored into the progress schedule instead of disclosing the associated float times. = (2) Modeling execution work flow in a CPM schedule using logic ties, constraints and other mechanisms contrary to the expected norm for that type of effort. May or may not be an attempt at float suppression, float ownership, or necessary to model the expected means and methods actually used in this instance more accurately. The term preferential logic normally has a negative connotation. (June 2007) = Mandatory Dependency - Dependency inherent in the nature of the work being done, such as a physical limitation, Used in hard logic. [8] (June 2007) * Logic, Hard - (2) Clearly understood work scope allows one to define work activities and logic with precision. The opposite of soft logic. (June 2007) AS aed ESTIMATE ACTIVITY DURATION pee" Estimate Activity Duration AR ima Peru Estimate Activity Durations is the process of estimating the number of work periods needed to complete individual activities with estimated resources. Tools & Les | + 4 Project management + 1 Expert judgment * 1 Duration estimates plan + Estimating + 2 Basis of estimates * 2 Project documents + 2Analogous + 3 Project documents + 3 Enterprise + 3 Parametric updates environmental factors eet + 4 Organizational + 5 Bottom-up process assets + 6 Data analysis + Alterative analysis + Reserve analysis + 7 Decision making + 8 Meetings Project y4'” Estimate Activity Resources Estimate Activity Resources is the process of estimating team resources and the type and quantities of materials, equipment, and supplies necessary to perform project work. aR Tye y seems Outputs + 1 Project *+ 1 Expert judgment + 1 Resource management plan + Estimating requirements + 2 Project documents + 2 Bottom-up + 2 Basis of estimates + Enterprise + 3Analogous + 3 Resource environmental factors * 4Parametric breakdown structure + 4 Organizational + 5 Data analysis + 4 Project documents Dee ese + Alternative analysis pcsies + Make-rent-or-buy + 6PMIS + 7 Meetings reject pe *" Estimate Cost Lima Peru Estimate Costs is the process of developing an approximation of the cost of resources needed to complete project work. Tyan} Bolom recy Outputs + 1 Project management + 1 Expert judgment + 1Cost estimates plan + Estimating + 2Basis of estimates + 2 Project documents + 2Analogous + 3 Project documents. + 3 Enterprise + 3 Parametric updates environmental factors + 4 Bottom-up + 4 Organizational process. 5 Three-point apsels + 6 Data analysis + Alterative analysis + Reserve analysis * Cost of quality + 7PMIS + 8 Decision Making Cee CU EEM nen ycesicic ee errC Rar then teen erie irs estimate, parametric, analogous and/or Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). In order to develop an overall schedule model. Tel ele Ley TA SK Dees Acton oul Vee Vicia Mle ATLA CeCe ee eR Deanne Cea eee) Sea ee Cee CCR tas erie lil) Project =" Durations Lima Peru The linking of the activities forms the schedule. The primary charactestics of activities is to include an overall duration based upon resources (manpower, material, equipment), to be cost loaded, a start and a.completion date that is tied to a calendar according to the working days in the contract and in the country showing the national holidays, etc., and should be linked properly. Duration is the overall estimated time in which an activity is planned to be completed. This becomes the “Original Duration” for an activity and is an assigned element of the activity. Duration often includes multiple work elements within the activity scope. For example, the activity described as “Install concrete” may include the following processes: forming, rebar installation, concrete placement, formwork stripping, and concrete curing. The schedule duration, in part, is derived from the Cost Estimate Model and may be limited by the contract requirements or scheduling specification. Activity involves action; the activity should be uniquely identified with verb-object, e.g., “Erect steel,” “Prepare documentation,” etc. = In Bar Chart Diagram. An activity duration may be continuous or not continuous and the duration may include non working periods called necking. fase! ject or Rai” Estimating Activity Durations Per = Determining the duration of an activity is essential to schedule development. It is necessary to understand each element of the scope of the activity and its related time. Estimates of detailed work ‘element time intervals--along with understanding the usage, availability, and constraints of resources— are analyzed to calculate an activity's planned duration. tried and true means of mathematically determining the duration Duration (time) = Work Quantity (units) + Applied Resources (unitstime) Duration increases with the amount of work of the activity, and it decreases with additional resources applied to the work. However, this is only the initial calculation. As the plan and schedule development evolves, activity durations are adjusted for better-refined scope, resource ulilization, location considerations, and demonstrated crew productivity Duration it is an overall estimated time in which an activity is planned to be completed. To estimate the activity duration there are various methods, for example: Analogous, Bottom-up, Top-down, Delphi technique, Expert opinion, Parametric, Heuristics, Monte Carlo methods and PERT Formula. =) th ae : : Xai Estimating Activity Durations Techniques Lima Peru Analogous: = Description: Often the best way to estimate is to look for a similar project and use the estimates from that project as a starting point. = Pros, Cons, and Tips: Success here rests on finding as analogous a project as possible and analyzing how the new project differs from the model. Bottom-Up: = Description: This is the nose-to-the-grindstone approach. The PM and team estimate every work package in the WBS and then add them all together. = Pros, Cons, and Tips: While this may sound like the best way to determine a schedule estimate, it often is not feasible because = It's very time consuming. = It's hard to factor in dependencies between tasks. = The more individual estimates (and estimators), the greater likelihood of error. ject ors Rai” Estimating Activity Durations Techniques Per Top-down: * Description: This is high-level estimating, Only the big categories ofthe project are estimated (just the top nodes on the WBS), and those numbers are added together. This is related to analogous estimating, because PMs often use historical data from previous projects to come up with the high-level estimates. * Pros, Cons, and Tips: This is a much faster process than bottom-up, and it can be very accurate, depending on the degree of skill and experience of the estimator and the quality ofthe historical data Delphi technique: = Description: Keeping estimators’ numbers anonymous can elicit the most honest estimates possible. = Pros, Cons, and Tips: This method is often used when people are reluctant to give honest numbers in front of their peers. A common scenario is when no one wants to tell a senior manager, who is very attached to his or her own idea, what he or she may not want to hear. =) th ae : : Xai Estimating Activity Durations Techniques Lima Peru Expert Opinion: = Description: When the PM recognizes that an expert can provide a better estimate than the team can come up with, a subject matter expert is brought in. = Pros, Cons, and Tips: It takes money to make money, so if an expert can give you a better estimate, sometimes this can translate to many dollars saved and a more successful project. Many consulting companies provide estimating as one of their service offerings. You might be pleasantly surprised how much an outside consultant may know about an area that is very new to you!. Parametric: = Description: In some industries, published figures (parameters) can be used as bases for estimation. For example, in construction, there might be a guideline for the length of time it typically takes to build a minimal with seven stores in Nebraska. = Pros, Cons, and Tips: If your project is in an industry supported by published estimates, parametric estimating is usually the way to go. These numbers are based on a great many similar projects that were done in the past. ject ors ‘sit Estimating Activity Durations Techniques Heuristics: = Description: Rules of thumb based on your own personal experience and trial and error are used to develop the estimate; for example, “Our team typically takes about three months to do this kind of work.” = Pros, Cons, and Tips: Although it sounds loose, this kind of estimating can be very accurate when you know your team’s capabilities well and have strong hands-on experience with the kind of work involved. Monte Carlo Method: = Description: Software tools are used to help with estimating, based on Monte Carlo algorithms. Rapid number-crunching on “what if’ scenarios can provide ranges of estimates accompanied by probabilities for coming in on certain dates (e.g., 80 percent likely to complete by October 1, 90 percent likely by October 15.) = Pros, Cons, and Tips: PMs who do a lot of estimating often rely a great deal on Monte Carlo tools. You may find a Monte Carlo tool specific to your industry that supports your scheduling tool of choice, such as MS Project. Project 4" Estimating Activity Durations Techniques Lima Peru PERT Formula: = Description: For this formula, three inputs are used: P, O, and M. P is for pessimistic (the longest time estimate or the most costly dollar estimate), and O is for optimistic (the shortest time or the lowest cost). Mis trickier and is the key variable with the formula. It's for ‘most likely’ (also known as “most realistic’) This one is a judgment call by the PM, meaning the number the PM or team consider to be the best guess. There are 2 variations of the PERT formula: = Variation 1 PERT estimate = (P + 4M + 0) /6 (the three are added up and averaged, with a weighting factor of four applied to M) = Variation 2 PERT estimate = (P + M +0) /3. (the three are simply taken as a straight average) = Pros, Cons, and Tips: = In Variation 4, there are three variables: P, M, and O, but because M is counted four times, i's as if there are six Variables: P + M+ M+M+M +0, So to average them, we divide by six. = Both versions of the PERT Formula are also referred to as “three-point estimates.” = Variation 1 is also called Beta Distribution, and Variation 2is also called Triangular Distribution, based on the statistical results PART 2.3 SEQUENCE ACTIVITIES Sequence activities, incorporating defined dependencies (internal, external, and cross programs) milestones, and constraints (for example, calendars, geography, contracts). me a AY ee eae ar eR a Serene gee en ks ol GCs) Fe aCe N a Cescs eels) See ecur ices eC a a te eR Roragement Keates Sequence Activities Sequence Activities is the process of identifying and documenting relationships among the project activities. ATE. WS Techniques Outputs . * 1 Project * 1 Precedence + 1 Project schedule management plan diagramming network diagrams + 2 Project method + 2 Project documents + 2 Dependency documents updates + 3 Enterprise determination and environmental integration factors * 3 Leads and lags + 4 Organizational + 4 Project process assets management information system Pd ierserene . . Cae Relationships = Relationships between a series of activities form the schedule, (Technically, the schedule is created when prospective dates are assigned to early or late start and finish events of the network.) The simple logic network is the fundamental tool for building a schedule that reflects the plan for completing the project. = As schedule activities are linked by relationships the critical path is formed. Revising the logic and relationships between the various schedule activities may have an affect on the schedule and the critical path, * |s important Understand: = How to transform an execution plan into a network schedule model. The schedule model must account for stakeholders and contractual needs and requirements. How the use of various logic relationships, calendars, milestones, and hammocks, are used to create aschedule model. The schedule model, in addition to meeting the stakeholder needs, must be able to accommodate change and change management. How the different logic relationships or sequencing between activities and their lags have an effect on the schedule, critical path and the work to be performed. = Every activity must have a predecessor and a successor activity with the exception of the first and last activities. The first activity will only have one or more successor activities. The last activity will have one or more predecessor activities. Relationships provide a logical Relationships LA oe aaah L 4 link or connection between two or more activities in a schedule. When a chain of activities of the longest duration are linked together, they define the critical path in a project schedule. __ Figure 2.3 [4 Activity and event types Pda rersSimene Zeer. Logic “loops” out sequences * Loop/Logic Loop - A circular sequence of dependency links between activites ina network, Creates an error in network logic resulting from successor activities, also being a predecessor tothe activity in question, Also known as circular logic. Logic loops can be very frustrating and time consuming to eliminate in complex network schedules. (June 2007) * Out-of-Sequence Progress — Progress that has been reported even though activities that have been deemed predecessors in project logic have not been completed. Scheduling software may include a “switch” to turn on or off how the calculations deal with out-of sequence progress. (June 2007) * Dangle - An activity in a network that has neither predecessors nor successors. (June 2007), = Open-Ended Activities ~ CPM activites that do not have a predecessor ora ‘successor may be said to be “open-ended.” Aside from the one activity starting the CPM network and the last activity in that network, open-ended activities “break’ the logical network and may not exhibit correct float calculations. (March 2010) * Retained Logic - One of two types of logic used to handle activities that occur ‘out of sequence. When used, scheduling software schedules the remaining duration of an out-of-sequence activity according to current network logic — after its predecessors. = Progress Override — One of two types ‘of scheduling software logic used to handle activities that occur out of ‘sequence. When specified, it treats an activity with out-of sequence progress as though it has no predecessor constraints; its remaining duration is scheduled to start immediately rather than wait for the activities predecessors to complete A a PSN CRITICAL PATH eT Asai Maleate LC Rte) techniques such as Critical Path Method, Critical eas Se MAMAN (PERT), and Monte Carlo simulation. In order to meet project delivery date requirements. eee Te Seeing ene cD) Petes ate a eat a) epee ae Ee RT ae Develop Schedule Develop Schedule is the process of analyzing activity sequences, durations, resource requirements, and schedule constraints to create a schedule model for project execution and monitoring and controlling. Tools & Techniques 1 Project 1 Schedule network analysis 1 Schedule baseline management plan + 2 Critical path method + 2 Project schedule . eae + 3 Resource optimization + 3 Schedule data + 4 Data analysis + 4 Project calendars : ae + 5 Leads and lags + 5 Change requests omental * 6 Schedule compression + 6 Project factors + 7 Project management management plan + 5 Organizational information system updates process assets + 8 Agile release planning . ees documents Critical Path Method (CPM) Critical Path Method (CPM): The Critical Path Method (CPM) is a scheduling technique using arrow, precedence, or PERT diagramming methods to determine the length ofa project through activity and phasing modeling, which can then be sed to identity the activities and constraints on the critical path. = Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM): In the Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM), the logic network is constructed using nodes to represent the activities and connecting them by lines that show logic relationships. The nodes (activites) can be circles or boxes. Activities that precede other activities are known as predecessor activities. Activities that follow other activities are known as successor activities. = Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM): Is a method of constructing a logical network of activities using arrows to represent the activities and connecting those head total. This diagramming method shows the sequence, predecessor, and successor relationships ofthe activities. In ADM networks, project activities are shown on the arrows, with a node or event at each end. Critical Chain Method Critical Chain Method: A schedule method that allows the project team to place buffers on any project schedule path to account for limited resources and project uncertainties. Critical chain focuses on the project schedule model activity and resource dependencies. The critical chain effectively eliminates most resource contention before the project starts and uses buffers for project control ass! Project Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) Method Project Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) Method: Is a probabilistic technique, originally developed and used by United States governmental agencies, for calculating the "most likely” durations for network activities. While no longer used strictly in that capacity, the tnderiying structure and techniques form the basis of modem schedule risk analysis How to Conduct a PERT Analysis: There are two main steps when determining the PERT Estimate. These two steps are: = Step 1: Determine optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely estimates = Step 2: Calculate PERT Estimate using the PERT Formula Forward Pass The forward pass through the network determines each activity's ES and EF and the project's duration or the earliest date a project can finish. 12 7 746-1212 1645-1218 14 | 105] 18 5 A forward pass calculates the Early Start (ES) and Early Finish (EF) of each activity. Time begins at "Time 1” and defines ES of first activity. Activities start the day after the finish of their predecessors, EF time of Activity = ES + Activity Duration — Backward Pass “oT = [a2 13-6 +128 7 [103] 12 a1 618 18-5412 14 4 105 18 4 8 Backward pass calculates the Late Finish (LF) and Late Start (LS) of each activity. Start with terminal activity of network. Activities finish the day before the start of their predecessors. LE time of Activity tivity Duration + In the backward pass, the latest allowable start and finish times for each of the activites are calculated, ‘observing the folowing ru 1. The LF of the terminal activity in the network is either assigned as. being equal to its EF or assigned the value established by the contract documents. 2, The LS of an actvty sits LF, ‘minus its duration, plus one. The LF for all other activities is equal to the numerical smallest LS of succeeding activities, minus one day. Where two or ‘more activities burst from or leave an activity, the numerically smallest LS of the successor activiies, minus one day, is the LE of the activity in question, ject Management Institute Lima Pers Understanding Floats * Float in project management is the amount of time that a terminal element in a project network can be delayed by, without causing a delay to subsequent terminal elements ([ree float) or project completion date (total-float). aes * Free float is defined as the amount of time that the completion of an activity can be delayed without delaying any other following or succeeding activity. + Free float is equal to the difference between an activty’s EF and the ES of the following or succeeding activity minus one. In the event that two or more activities succeed or follow an activity, the succeeding activity with the smallest ES is used to determine the activity free float amount. The Free Float of an activity Cay * Any further delays to any activities in this chain wil result in a delay to the project's completion, * Total Float is shared by the activities in a chain, For this reason, itis a better indicator of the float time an activity possesses. Itis cautioned that TF is shared, * Total Float (TF) is defined as the amount of time that the completion of an activity can be delayed without delaying the completion of the project's terminal activity. Total Float is equal to the difference is equal to the smallest value between the activity in question and all succeeding activities minus one. between the activity's LF and EF, or the difference between the activity's LS and ES. PPE ee x4. Total Float Total Float 1. The maximum number of work periods by which an activity can be delayed without delaying project completion or violating a target finish date. 2. The amount that an activity can be lengthened without delaying the project completion, assuming that all other activities are done in their normal time. 3. The amount of time (in work units) that an activity may be delayed from its early start without delaying the project finish date. 4. The excess time available for an activity to be expanded or delayed without affecting the rest of the project, assuming it begins at its earliest time. 5. The amount of time that an activity may be delayed beyond its early start/early finish dates without delaying the contract completion date. Negative Total Float 1. Expression sometimes used to describe the time by which the duration of an activity or path has to be reduced in order to permit a limiting imposed date to be achieved. Negative-total-float only occurs when an activity on the critical path is behind schedule. ject oe Rah” Free Float ima Peru Float 1. The difference between the time available for performing a task and the time required to complete it. 2. Available time for activity execution less the time taken by the activity. 3. The amount of time that an activity can slip past its duration without delaying the rest of the project. 4. The additional time available to complete non-critical activities or work items without affecting the critical path 5. The amount of time that an activity may be delayed from its early start without delaying the project finish date. 6. Ameasure of the time flexibility available in the performance of an activity. 7. The flexibility that an activity has versus the critical path. See total-float and slack. 8. The time available for an activity in addition to its planned duration. See free-float and total-float. Slack 1. Term used in PERT for float. Originally the flexibility in the dates of an event in an activity-on-arrow network (i.e., late event time/early event time). 2. In PERT, the scheduling flexibility available for an event, equivalent to total-float in CPM. Total Float and Free Float hs I a nog I ! 5 id i JA = i ¢ 1 ‘itil Path 1 ¢ No Float os J ‘comProjected arly ‘Completion Date “Activity Float” Or in CPM scheduling parlance “Totol Float” (TF)is most common —_—— ‘meaning of term “Float” ‘Completion Date P Ia Schedule Sample UAE eth hy Uta La Se Project reage""" CPM Method Lima Peru 10, ‘The series of tasks that must fish on time for the entire project ofnish on time. In a network diagram, the longest path from start to finish or the path without any slack, and thus the path corresponding to the shortest time in which the projec can be completed. Ina network ciagram, the path with the lngest duration The line of projec activities having the least float, especially when floats close to, or below, zero. ‘The route through the network that nas only cca activites. ‘The series of interdependent activities ofa projact connected end-to-end, which determines the shortest total length ofthe projec. ‘The path (sequence) of actvtos which represent the longest total time required to complete the project. ‘The longest connected route through the CPM network. ‘The sequence of activites through a project network from star to finish, the sum of whose durations determines the overall project ‘uation. There may be more than one ctical path depending on worktfow logic. A delay to progress af any activity on the crcl path wil, without acceleration or resequencing, cause the overall project curation tobe extended, and i therefore referred to-as @ “critical delay.” In project management, a cttical path isthe sequence of project network activites withthe longest overall duration, determining the shortest time possible to. complet the project. Any delay ofan activity onthe ctical path directly impacts the planned project completion date (.., there is no float onthe ical path). Aproject can have several, parallel crical paths, An addtional parallel path through the network with the total durations shorter than the erical path is called a sub-cttical or non-critical path PART 2.5 ASSIGN RESOURCES PASC aaic ace Content GS Peo Serene Ane RcccaiCeti tec) activities by working with functional managers, project PCC Ms Wee) aCe ee In order to define the resource constrained schedule. eee RT eee eee ee uC ey Resource breakdown structure (RBS) ieee ter ed ieee eRe Peete erence tecy CC me a re eRe eee rsieze”" —Cost/Resource Loading Lima Pers 1 Cost and resource loading incorporates the activity cost estimate and the project execution plan into the schedule model. np WBS and OBS are fundamental elements used to assist in resource and cost loading. It becomes the basis for resource leveling and scheduling the initial cash flow. 3. For sure some schedulers front-end their cash flow at the beginning of the project to have more cash at the beginning 4, Cost and resource loading processes are key elements of complex schedules. 5, There might be some constraints imposed affecting the resource or cost loading. 2 Cost and resources loaded/allocated schedules should be monitored carefully and understand how to calculate different reports showing the progress & the forecast. ~ Cost and resource loading processes are key elements of complex schedules. Know how resource assignments are developed and loaded into the schedule. Understand how schedule status reporting reflects the cost and resource elements of activities, Pq essere . xai=. Cost/Resource Loading Lima Peru = Resource Leveling — Any form of network analysis in which scheduling decisions are driven by Tesource management concerns (e.g., limited resource availability or difficult to manage changes in resource levels). (June 2007) = Resource Smoothing - Process of rescheduling activities such that the requirement for resources does not exceed resource limits. Smoothing is a type of resource leveling, except that the project completion date may not be delayed. Activities may only be delayed within their float. (June 2007) = What is resource leveling? Leveling is the smoothing of resources is to better allocate use of resources and avoid peaks or valleys and will utilize the available float of the activity. = For network activity schedule models, schedule analysis will identify float values for non-critical activities, determine implications of “what-if scenarios, and monitor and control the schedule. Schedule analysis assists in resource and cost loading and leveling review. * Understand the basic concept of manually resource leveling a schedule model, considering all the resource constraints. Those constraints may be imposed by stakeholders or the contract and be internal or external to the project. 1 2. Calendar Calendar definition is another organizational tool available to schedule designers. Work may proceed in multiple shifts on some activities. Contractors may work four, five, or six days per week. Work outside may be affected by weather, while administrative, design, procurement, and other interior work can proceed without impact. Particularly in the construction industry, planning for adverse weather is an important element of schedule design .. Why are multiple calendars used on a project? Multiple calendars are used to depict various workday scenarios or conditions that can occur on a project. For example, a project may have the following calendars: 5-day work week, 7-day work week, and exterior calendar to reflect weather days, seasonal, and weekend only work. Project calendars are formulated to reflect specific events, long-running conditions, or circumstances associated with a project. A project calendar is assigned individually or globally to each activity, so that the duration of the activity may be allocated based on the characteristics of the calendar. Activity, calendar and resource constraints will create discontinuous float paths. The path with the least Total Float value is called the critical or longest path. When analyzing near-critical paths itis important to review how the constraints interact with schedule calculations to give false impressions of criticality ia) ADJUST SCHEDULE MODEL Adjust schedule model based upon resource availability, available budget, and other known eee In order to calculate the resource constrained schedule. Tel ele Ley TA SK Pee aster LMR esau LR ols (oi CalgXT eu Mallia eee Se eet ecm tae schedule compression, simulation) Project =" Constraints Arestriction that must be balanced with all other constraints to achieve project success. The four primary and universal project constraints are scope, quality grade, time and resources 2. Arestriction or limitation you set on the start or finish date of a task. ‘A factor that will imit the project management team's options. For example, a predefined budget is a constraint that may limit the team's scope, staffing, and schedule options. 4, Ageneric term for factors affecting the possible start and finish dates of an activity, including logic and imposed dates. . The state, quality, or sense of being restricted to a given course of action or inaction. An applicable restriction or limitation, either internal or external to the project, that will affect the performance of the project or a process. For example, a schedule constraint is any limitation or restraint placed on the project schedule that affects when a schedule activity can be scheduled and is usually in the form of fixed imposed dates. A cost constraint is any limitation or restraint placed on the project budget such as funds available for overtime. A project resource constraint is any limitation or restraint placed on resource usage, such as what resource skills or disciplines are available and the amount of a given resource available during a specified time frame. fase! ag Constraints Lima Pers 1. Imposing a constraint on an activity while creating the schedule might affect how the forward and backward calculation is calculated according to how strict the constraint is as well, for an example must start on or must finish on constraint are the most strict constraints which might affect the total float of this path as well . Constraints include limitations and prescriptions for when events must or must not yet occur that affect the logic of a schedule model. Constraints may include resource limits or usage profiles. Constraints must be carefully considered and used only when appropriate. The scheduler should remember that application of any constraint wil either = extend the duration of the project or = have no effect on the project duration. 3. Correspondingly, removal of any constraint will = shorten the duration of the project or have no effect on the project duration. Importantly, unnecessary or inappropriate constraints included in the network, or failure to include essential constraints, may create or define an artificial critical path and eliminate the true critical path. PART 2.7 ALIGN NYG 5] 3310) 8m rN etree OR Ree cele Ln nos integrated master plan (IMP), through review of enterprise objectives and contract documentation. In order to ensure accomplishment of overall program objectives. at ER a Oe cm edge) cad Pletetstats euraard Caer nae RSE Analyze major milestones against statement of work (SOW), the contract, and/or memorandum of Ute eile are To assess whether schedule model delivery estimates meet required deadlines. at eee TS ere ee eRe = Project Charter Dee eee ee eM enc eee eel gt = Work breakdown structure (WBS) Project eleay “Types of Schedules Lima Pers = The project may dictate the type of schedule that may be developed to track progress. When reporting the schedule, the resultant is in graphical format and often does not depict the logic that is built into the schedule, Considerations: = Scheduling Methodologies = Schedule required by Stakeholders (Schedule Levels) = Earned value Management and reporting techniques ‘Avery clear example of different types of schedule used are the linear schedule which is used mainly for the repetitive tasks such as highway construction, or similar villas, etc. Non repetitive projects such as building a hospital for an example, a network schedule is used. The network is derived from logical relationships among activities. Understand the various schedules types and how each may be best suited for application on a particular project. The type of schedule used is directly related to the size, scope, and complexity of the project's planning, reporting, management and controlling needs. Pee ”* Types of Schedules Lima Peru = Atkey times in the life of a project, the type of schedule may change from one format to another, such as from a graphical presentation to a simple list of requirements or visa versa. Types of schedules used during the life cycle of the project may include: Milestone schedule (Used mainly for higher management reporting during the project life cycle) Phase (Used mainly to communicate with different departments for an example an Engineering detailed schedule for the Engineering Phase) Area (Used to communicate mainly with the person andlor team responsible for this area) List: it can be work activity, punch list, commissioning (It is used mainly to communicate daily activities with the team or at the final phase of the project for more detailing) Control level schedules (It has been discussed and explained before) = Within the overall schedule, there may be a need to utilize other types of schedule, if required to address and convey critical aspects of the project. Common Schedule Level Descriptions Common Schedule Level Descriptions * ul Level: Millestone/ Executive Master Summary schedule ‘One-pager, time scaled bar chart Level II: Contract Master / Detailed Integrated schedule CPM to plan, implement & control overall project Level III: Area Master / Contraet schedules ‘Subcontract / phased / element CPM schedules Management Level IV: Control /2-3 Week Look-Ahead schedules Spreadsheets / Bar Chart field plans Level V: Daily / Hourly Work schedules Field supervision planning & execution listings * No industry standard — AACE developing Roll Up 3 = e 8 3 Bren! Some comments to Schedule Levels Level (1) ~ Milestones / Executive Master Summary Schedul ‘= May include begin projec, design complete, purchase major equipment, mobilization .. et, = Top managementis usualy interested in milestone level schedule, Level (2) Contract Master / Detailed integrated Schedule: = Include summary of engineering, rocurement, major equipment fabrication and delivery, major structures, installation, startup, and commissioning, = As the detailed schedule is developed, it must be summarize to replace the independently developed project summary and milestone schedules, & Level (3)~ Area Master / Contract Schedules: = Display the lowest level of deta necessary to control the project = It supports determining and assigning resources Level (4) - Control/ 2-3 Week Look-Ahead Schedules = From 2to 6 weeks look-ahead schedule for planning, reporting, review assignments of current week work pian *= Best use for communicating planning requirements to those performing work. Level (5) - Daily / Hourly Work Schedules += Ate prepared to communicate task requirements for completing activites identfied = Are usually considered working schedules that reflect hourly, dally or weekly work requirements Barene! Schedule Quality Analysis = Schedule quality analysis is mulfi-leveled, interactive, and repetitive. The key interactive relationships are among time, cost and quality. = Questions for schedule quality analysis include these 1. Is the critical path reasonable? 2. Are there multiple critical paths; or could there be, if a few non-critical tasks are delayed? What activities are near-crtical? Does the work flow as planned? Are there space or safety conflicts between concurrent activities? Is there an excessive amount of work being done at any one time? Are there resources enough to support all concurrent activities? Can subs and suppliers meet the schedule? 9. Ate any activities scheduled out of season? f & PN OTE = The schedule quality analysis and compliance review provides means to resolve issues between stakeholders and proves the representation of the scope of work. Project Management Bee Schedule Basic Documentation Lima Peru = The baseline schedule documentation is recorded from the assumptions, constraints, parameters-as well as from the contract and supplementary documentation that goes into the development of the baseline schedule; access plan, TC plan, logs with planned dates, ete. = The baseline schedule documentation includes a narrative that describes the baseline documentation including the critical path, the key characteristics of the schedule model, key milestones. = This documentation provides the foundation for schedule change or delay and impact identification and management. The narrative and the supporting documents helps the non-planner or non- schedulers to read the schedule better and develop a better understanding of the scope representation. = Changes is inevitable in projects. With the documentation in place, it helps in tracing the changes with significant variance from the baseline schedule. = The revised baseline must include the supporting documents to support the change made to the schedule; ex. Variation orders, letters, transmittals, RFls, all documents that led to that change. * The baseline is always updated through out the project life cycle iva} Sel SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS Perform schedule risk analysis using quantitative CRM Laue ee ele Cli RL Le scenarios, Monte Carlo simulation). Tg a fe ade ee ee acceptable risk tolerances. at eR Dee ee een ten Cec em ee Carlo simulation, PERT) = Contingency reserve or buffer (funds, budget, or time) Cross-Cutting Knowledge and Skills Sete ene eee ELON Cesc schedule performance index, baseline execution index, float Puro) Nae es :" Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Lima Pers Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis is the process of prioritizing individual project risks for further analysis or action by assessing their probability of occurrence and impact as well as other characteristic BCR arena ay olny 4 Project + 1 Expert judgment + 1 Project documents management plan + 2.Dala gathering updates * 2 Project documents + 3 Data analysis + 3 Enterprise + Risk probability and environmental factors impact assessment + 4 Organizational + 4 Interpersonal and process assets team skills + 5 Risk categorization + 6 Data representation + 7 Meetings Pee “Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Lima Peru Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis is the process of numerically analyzing the combined effect of identified individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty on overall project objectives, “ nat Proj 4 Project management Expert judgment plan + 2 Data gathering + 2 Project documents + 3 Interpersonal and team + 3 Enterprise stills environmental factors + 4 Representations of + 4 Organizational process uncertainty assets + 5 Data analysis + Monte Carlo Simulation + Sensitivity analysis: + Decision tree analysis + Influence diagrams Project Naragenent Qualitative Risk Analysis ‘The scale described in this chapter and recommended in TCM 7.6 is a five point scale (very low, low, medium, high, very high) which would provide increased differentiation of probability Qualitative risk analysis is the and impacts for the risk items. The values for each of the scores should be established a during risk planning and provided to the participants. The scores of the threats/opportunities assignment of subjective ate most commonly based on time or money, but can occasionally take other values, values to risk management depending on the category. items in order to provide guidance on the treatment of the item. The values are usually probability of ‘occurrence and magnitude of threat/opportunity for the project being considered. The assignment of these values is away to establish the threshold of taking action (treatment) on a risk item. “ ” PPE ere itative Ri ‘ wae Qualitative Risk Analysis Ingo aseenantsueard creo nee ‘hay ‘0 charcr of ecouence ‘cz tas one ay other yor vty ‘pte ches occurence ecu once ey 0 20a Qualitative Risk Analysis ‘Pirie nd cies Hk management flrs Pe Quantitative Risk Analysis Mice Monte Carlo Simulation is commonly used with expected value and range estimating t and should incorporate specific risk events that have been identified. Parametric Quantitative techniques using ‘modeling combines risk to impact relationships. An advantage of these methods is that sensitivity analysis can be performed to bette identify the risk drivers. These methods generate numerical tables and values associated withthe risks and may be helpful in making decisions on treatment. Its important to properly document the assumptions and results so all will understand the impacts, probabilistic methods are expected value, range estimating, and parametric modeling. These methods require an experienced practioner and appropriate (Barratt support. Expected value uses three point estimates (high, likely, and low) and the probability for each to generate a value, Range estimating is similar with three point values used in the analysis. In addition, range estimating is effective when there are limited inputs into the overall cost or schedule. ” © Contingency is an amount added to an estimate or schedule finish date to allow for items, conditions, or events for which the state, occurence, or effect is uncertain, Experience shows these occurrences will likely result, in aggregate, in ational costs and ime. * Contingency usually excludes: * Major scope changes such as changes in end product specification, capacities, building sizes, and location of the asset or project. + Extraordinary events such as major strikes and natural disasters. * Management reserves. + Escalation and currency effects ” Contingencies Expert Judgment * This is perhaps the most widely used. Itis the application of assessments based on personal and past company experience with projacts,Itis frequently used in companies \here there is an expert who has demonstrated competence with making these judgments, [tis also used in companies where there is a close collaboration with project professionals that have objective and realistic evaluations of project risks, Predetermined Guidelines * These are frequently used by larger owner companies that have project support groups. ‘The guidelines are specific oteria for design, engineering and information by estimate class, The criteria can also allow for maturity of development, such as assumed, preliminary, semi-detailed, and definitive, Large sophisticated project organizations collect project historical cost data and use the analysis to guide the setting of contingency. Monte Carlo Simulation = MCS uses a statistical analysis of the cost estimate and schedule associated with the Project risks to determine an amount of money or ime to add to achieve a given outcome Expected values and range estimating are used with MCS to generate a table or curve with associated probabilities for the potential cost and schedule outcomes. In the probabilistic approach the choice ofa probability from the range of potential outcomes i important TYPICAL RISK IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS Risk is around every corner in the construction industry. Whether it's dealing with inflated materials costs or heightened safety concerns due to unfamiliar equipment, team members need to identify risks before they impact the project. In general, there are five different types of tisks your project team should consider: = Design Risk = Construction Risks * Political egal/Regulatory Risks = Financing Risks Environmental Risks fase! Design Risk it may seem silly to discuss design risks when talking about construction management, but, the trend today toward alternative project delivery methods such as at-risk CM and design-build has the contractor being involved in the design process before construction begins. In some instances, the builder is contractually responsible for the design, and in those cases, it is critically important that design risks are given serious review and consideration in the overall risk mitigation plan. But even when this is not the case, there are many types of design risks that will impact the contractor's ability to deliver the project on time, within budget, and within the quality specifications expected by the owner. Construction risks are a bit easier for contractors to identify, but they should all still be laid out in a checklist to make sure that a discussion takes place to address them. Construction risks run the gamut from factors where the contractor has absolutely no control, such as the weather, to factors where they have significant control, such as safety, They are generally associated with the management of materials, manpower, and equipment. Each construction project is different, and the construction manager should focus on those construction risks that will have the greatest impact on project cost, schedule, quality, and safety. Poorqualty or adequate design, ‘drawings, or specs Noncompliance with éesien standards ‘Ownerdrected changes Excessive design review by owner, ‘aronitect, or agency ‘changes in design standerds or regulatory tequrements inaceuracies associated with supplemental design information such as sol reports, erwironmental reports, and so on ‘Latent design derects attesting con- ‘ractor's warranty Construction Risks ‘Te Information ana detail needes tocconstiuct an element of work Is missing, incomplete, or inaccurate. The design doesn't meet the build. Ing code or other eegulations, ‘The owner changes their mind about the design after construction beeins. eviews and the approval process associated with design submittals take longer then typically alowed. Fegulatory requirements in place ‘at the beginning ofthe project may change during construction, The information needed bythe eon- tractor and provided by the architect for owner is inaccurate, Detective design aetais that result In flawed construction sfter occu: ney of the focity (such asa root ‘ashing leaks beceuse of poor esign). Labor availabilty anc ‘quality of labo poo! Differing ste conditions Site access, trate, Parking issues Property damage or ‘met issues. Coordination with utitios, adjoining reightors, and s0 on It tne contractor can't access the proper labor needed to complete a projec, significant delays may be experienced. Quality issues resulting ‘rom an inexperienced workforce can also result in rework ang cast evertuns. Sometimes the conditions on the bulding site ‘ae not communicated in the plans and specs, ‘This ciscovery can lead to significant cost Increases and delays, Projects located in highly congested areas can ‘cause significant celays and storage issues for the contractor when trying to coordinate work The project site might be located in an area ‘where security isan issue. The contractor has to protect the project, materials, and equipment against vandalism and then Signieant coordination efforts must be made ‘wen tying in electrical, plumbing, water, and gas lines 1@ main suaply ines, This oten requires ‘working wity local uty ofee, and ther sched lle and the contractor's schede do nat alway

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