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Capstocks (Daily Reports) 29 Feb 2024
Capstocks (Daily Reports) 29 Feb 2024
Disclosures and Disclaimer : This report must be read with the disclosures in the
Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. This document does www.capstocks.com
not contain any investment views or opinions.
Thursday
Morning CAPSTOCKS 29th February, 2024
# The 3-big negative catalysts surrounding Dalal Street: Nifty IT Index 37742 -0.34%
1) FIIs unimpressed with strength in the Indian stock markets. (Please note, Nifty Media Index 2069 -3.46%
month-to-date FIIs have sold to the tune of Rs. 17,650 crore. Interestingly, Nifty Midcap Index 13618 -2.25%
this month, DIIs have net bought worth Rs. 23,782 crore).
Nifty Metal Index 7850 -1.88%
2) The recent FOMC Minutes suggests that the Federal Reserve is in no rush to
Nifty Pharma Index 18943 -0.64%
cut rates and that’s on the heels of recent higher-than-expected inflation
readings. Nifty Reality Index 910 -2.11%
3) Anxiety ahead of Thursday’s release of the January Personal Consumption Nifty Smallcap Index 15875 -1.87%
and Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation that Sensex 72305 -1.08%
tracks consumer spending. (Honestly speaking, the key PCE inflation data
SGX Nifty 22171 -0.10%
could suggest the narrative of when and by how much the Federal Reserve
could cut interest rates this year).
# Long story short: Until, the Fed slays the inflation beast, volatility will Outlook for the Day
continue to be the hallmark and Nifty and its stocks just can’t not stomach higher. Volatile session likely
# Now, before we get into detail, here is the preferred trade on Nifty
and Bank Nifty:
Nifty (21951): Sell at CMP. Stop at 22311. Targets 21857/21807. Aggressive Nifty Outlook
targets at 21505-21550 zone.
Intraday Neutral (21750-22100)
# Bank Nifty (45963): Sell at CMP. Stop at 47051. Targets 45505/45001.
Medium Term Positive (21300-22500)
Aggressive targets at 44429-44600 zone.
Long Term Positive (20050-23000)
# NSE has announced that Shriram Finance will replace UPL in Nifty50. The Pivot Level
changes will come into place on March 28, 2024. Additionally, Jio Financial Nifty 21821
Services will enter Nifty Next 50.
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Morning CAPSTOCKS
NSE in its press release also said that Adani Wilmar, Muthoot Finance, PI Technical Strategy
Industries, Procter and Gamble Health and Hygiene Care will exit from Nifty
Next 50 DR REDDYS LAB 6428
# All eyes on the India’s GDP numbers for the quarter ended December 2023 due Action BUY
on February 29.
Target 6900
# Investors will be keeping a close eye on the auto sales data for February, which
will be announced on Friday, March 1st. Support 6125/5880
# Vodafone Idea plans to raise about Rs 45,000 crore via equity and debt; Resistance 6750/7100
promoters to participate. (The company said it will call for a meeting of its
shareholders on April 2, 2024 and expects to complete Rs 20,000-crore equity Holding Period 9-12 Months.
fund raise in the coming quarter).
Incorporated in the year 1984, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd (DRL)
is an Indian pharmaceutical manufacturer headquartered in
STOCKS TO WATCH: Hyderabad, India products and services including APIs, generics,
branded generics, biosimilars and OTC. DLR major therapeutic areas of
focus are gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, diabetology, oncology, pain
SECTORS: management and dermatology. The firms’ major markets include –
USA, India, Russia & CIS countries, China, Brazil and Europe.
# Bullish Sectors: PHARMA. Dr Reddy’s (DRL) revenue consists of US (47%), India (17%), Europe
Market Generic (7%), Emerging Markets Generic (+18%) PSAI
# Bearish Sectors: FMCG, METAL, PSU BANK, PRIVATE BANKS. (+10%)
Revenue Analysis [Q3FY24]
# BULLISH STOCKS: BHARTIARTL, INFY, TCS, JK CEMENT. Q3FY24 consolidated revenue at Rs. 72.1 billion, YoY growth of 7% and
QoQ growth of 5%. The YoY growth was primarily driven by market
share gains for our existing products in North America and continuation
# BEARISH STOCKS: ASHOK LEYLAND, DIXON TECHNOLOGIES, REC, PFC, of our growth journey in Europe.
LTIM, DIVIS LAB, BAJAJ FINANCE, BAJAJ FINSERV, HEROMOTO CORP, Global Generics (GG): Q3FY24 revenue at Rs. 63.1 billion, YoY growth
of 7% and QoQ growth of 3%. YoY growth was primarily driven by
increase in volumes of our base business, new product launches,
# Our chart of the day suggests value buying and bargain hunting shall be the partially offset by price erosion in certain markets. Sequential growth
was driven by increase in volumes of our base business, offset partially
preferred theme and gain traction at Dalal Street. We are quite bullish on TATA due to price erosion in certain markets.
MOTORS, and INFY with inter-month perspective. Research & development (R&D) expenses in Q3FY24 at Rs. 5.6 billion.
As % to Revenues – Q3FY24: 7.7% | Q2FY24: 7.9% | Q3FY23: 7.1%.
R&D investments are driven by ongoing clinical trials on differentiated
# The 1 stock to buy right now: Buy TATA MOTORS (CMP 958). Buy between assets, as well as other developmental efforts to build a healthy pipeline
of new products across our markets for both small molecules and
935-940 zone. Stop at 913. Targets 977/993. Aggressive targets at 1017. biosimilars.
when the rejig comes into effect on February 29. These 5-stocks are: Capital expenditure for Q3FY24 at Rs. 3.1 billion.
Free cash-flow for Q3FY24 at Rs. 0.2 billion.
1. BHEL Net cash surplus at Rs. 59.1 billion as on December 31, 2023.
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Morning CAPSTOCKS
# Nifty: In yesterday’s trade, Nifty witnessed massive drubbing and the negative takeaway was that benchmark ended on a ugly
note.
In the process, Nifty formed a big bearish candlestick pattern.
Nifty’s all-time-high continues to be at 22249.40 mark.
Meanwhile, the recent sequence of higher high/low is still intact on time frames but that said the technicals are suggesting
weakening momentum.
The technical landscape suggests Nifty’s major support at 21807 mark. Interweek support seen at 21505 mark.
Nifty’s 200 DMA at 20030 mark.
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Morning CAPSTOCKS
# Bank Nifty: In yesterday’s trade, Bank Nifty witnessed volatile movements and the negative takeaway was that the benchmark
ended way below the dotted lines.
Bank Nifty was mostly seen underperforming benchmark Nifty’s bearish move.
Bank Nifty ended with 1.34% losses as against Nifty’s 1.11% loss.
Interestingly, in Wedesday’s trade, Nifty PSU Bank index ended 2.30% lower while Nifty Private Bank index ended 1.51% lower.
Intraday support for Bank Nifty now seen at 45505/44429 and then at 43721 on closing basis.
In today’s trade, Bank Nifty is likely face resistance at 46401/46900 mark and then hurdles are placed at 48636. Bank Nifty’s 200-
DMA is placed at 45095 mark.
ECONOMIC CUES:
# The US economy expanded an annualized 3.2% in Q4 2023, slightly below 3.3% in the advance estimate, following a 4.9% rate in
Q3.
The update primarily reflected a downward revision to private inventory investment that was partly offset by upward revisions to
state and local government spending and consumer spending.
# Overnight, US stocks were mostly lower and mostly wobbling in Wednesday’s session as investors digested the latest economic
data and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
After touching record levels last week, the big three indexes were on the back foot ahead of a crucial inflation reading on Thursday.
Expectations for cuts may be affected by new data out Thursday showing the latest readings for the Fed’s preferred inflation index.
Markets are currently pricing in the first reduction in June, compared with March at the start of the year, according to the CME
Fedwatch tool.
There will also be a spate of officials from the Fed delivering remarks in the coming days, which investors will scrutinize for hints of
what the central bank will do when its monetary policy committee next meets over March 19-20.
It was sea of red at Dalal Street as all sectoral indices had nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.
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Morning CAPSTOCKS
Nifty Media (-3.5%), Nifty Reality, PSU Banks, Auto, Metal and Nifty PSE indices received fresh drubbing, down 2% each, and most
importantly, ended on an ugly note.
Well, the main reason for the pessimism can also be attributed to lack of direction ahead of Thursday’s release of the January US
Personal Consumption and Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation that tracks consumer spending.
Meanwhile, shares of debt-laden Vodafone Idea tumbled 13.88% after the fundraising announcement by the company failed to lift
investors' sentiment.
Top Index Losers: POWERGRID (-4.22%) BAJAJ AUTO (-3.82%) APOLLOHOSP (-3.77%)
# Adv-Dec 04—46
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TOP PICKS (F & O)
It's like having investment binoculars !
Dalal Street Could Take Another Tumble. We Are Bearish On Tech Mahindra.
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EQUITY DERIVATIVES Thursday
29th February, 2024
Looking into the future from present.
Option Call: BUY NIFTY PE Strike Price 21800 at CMP 134.95. Premium +56 vs 06
Maximum Loss: ₹ 6,747.5/-. Profit: Unlimited. Stop: Exit Put Option Nifty Future OI 0.52 crores (-24.06%)
if NIFTY moves above 22191. (NIFTY FEBRUARY Futures CMP
22045) Bank Nifty Future OI 13.36 lakhs (-26.86%)
• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 23000 Strike Derivatives Vol. No of Turnover
Price, followed by 22500 Strike Price for 29th February Series. Short (INR in Cr.) contracts (Rs. In cr.)
Buildup was seen at strike prices 22000-22700.
Index Future Volumes 204,929 16,717
• Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 21500
followed by 21000 strike prices for 29th February series. Short Covering Stock Future Volumes 1,750,615 141,778
was seen at strike prices 21900-22300.
Index Option Volumes 65,316,980 5,386,995
• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 47000
Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 44000 Strike Stock Option Volumes 581,894 49,684
Price.
Total 67,854,418 5,595,174
• As per Wednesday’s provisional data available on the NSE, FII sold
shares worth Rs. 1879.23 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs on
the other hand, bought shares worth Rs. 1827.45 crores. Major Changes in Nifty Options (OI)
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DAILY PIVOT TABLE Thursday
29th February, 2024
Stock CMP Support Resistance 21 DMA 200 DMA Intraday Short Term Long Term
NIFTY 21951 21512 22390 21935 20030 UP UP UP
BANKNIFTY 45963 45044 46882 46121 45095 UP DOWN DOWN
FINNIFTY 20340 19934 20747 20431 20096 UP DOWN DOWN
NIFTYAUTO 20372 19965 20780 19984 16601 UP UP UP
NIFTYFMCG 53825 52748 54901 54158 52841 DOWN DOWN DOWN
NIFTYINFRA 8055 7894 8216 8026 6466 UP UP UP
NIFTYIT 37742 36987 38497 37755 32324 UP UP UP
NIFTYMEDIA 2069 2027 2110 2144 2149 DOWN DOWN DOWN
NIFTYMETAL 7850 7693 8007 8007 6905 UP DOWN UP
NIFTYMID50 13618 13346 13891 13829 11577 DOWN UP UP
NIFTYOILAN 11442 11213 11670 11538 8577 DOWN UP UP
NIFTYPSE 9085 8903 9266 9191 6396 UP UP UP
NIFTYPSUBA 6841 6704 6977 6862 5077 DOWN UP UP
NIFTYREALT 910 891 928 881 643 UP UP UP
NIFTYSMLCA 15875 15558 16193 16138 12997 UP DOWN UP
Pivot Point
PP : Pivot Point : This is trigger point for weekly buy/sell based on the price range of the previous week.
R1 : Resistance one : 1st Resistance over PP. R2 : Resistance two : 2nd Resistance over R1.
S1 : Support one : 1st support after PP. S2 : Support Two : 2nd support after S1.
As per the tool, the trader should take BUY position just above PP and keep the stop loss of PP and the first target would be R1.
If R1 is crossed then R2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at R1.
Similarly if price goes below PP the trader should SELL and keep the PP as Stop loss and the first target would be S1.
If S1 is crossed then S2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at S1.
This is a trading tool. The key to use of this tool is the use of STOP LOSS.
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DAILY PIVOT TABLE Thursday
29th February, 2024
Stock CMP Support Resistance 21 DMA 200 DMA Intraday Short Term Long Term
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THE COMPASS
…Direction at a glance
MCX GOLD 62241 60961 59999 62351 63851 Negative Gold prices likely to witness some profit-taking. Intraday Strategy: Sell at
CMP. Targets 60971/59991 with stop at 62351.
MCX SILVER 68825 68201 66833 71001 72651 Negative Silver to underperform Gold. Intraday strategy: Sell at CMP. Targets
68201/66833 with stop at 71001.
Crude Oil prices bounce back. Intraday strategy: Buy at CMP. Targets at
MCX CRUDE OIL 6521 6351 6071 6665 6801 Positive
6665/6801. Stop at 6351.
MCX NATURAL Oversold conditions seen in Natural Gas. Intraday strategy: Buy at CMP.
157.0 133 111 171 188 Positive Targets 171/188 mark. Strict stop at 133.
GAS
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THE NAVIGATOR
…Sailing global trend
WTI CRUDE Crude Oil prices bounce hard. Interweek strategy: Buy at CMP. Targets
78.64 76 73 82 86.00 Positive 82/86 with stop at 76.45.
OIL (USD)
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or solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and Capstocks
and Securities(India) Pvt. LTD its subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have exercised due
diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained in this recommendation, but Capstocks and Securities(India) Pvt. LTD or any of its subsidiaries or
associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this
recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information.
Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to
fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might be contrary to recommendations issued by Capstocks and Securities(India) Pvt. LTD in the
company research undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived purely from technical analysis. Capstocks and Securities(India) Pvt. LTD has based this
document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Capstocks and Securities(India) Pvt. LTD makes no guarantee,
representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available
information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for
informational purposes. The recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for trading purposes. The recommendations are valid for the day of the report however
trading trends and volumes might vary substantially on an intraday basis and the recommendations may be subject to change. The information and any disclosures provided herein
may be considered confidential. Any use, distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures provided
herein do not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past performance
does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee against the loss of your entire
investment.
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