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© Institute of Environmental Science & Meteorology,

College of Science, University of the Philippines Diliman

Module 2
Env Sci 1 (Environment & Society)

Human
Population & the
Environment
Image credit: Google Earth Pro
https://givingcompass.org/article/world-population-day-family-planning/
 Learning Outcomes

!
Explain population dynamics & the factors
that control population growth

! Discuss the human carrying capacity

!
Examine how rapid human population
growth is the fundamental environmental
issue

! Describe Philippines population growth &

its environmental impact

Image from https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-how-many-

people-have-have-lived-on-earth-1.6550893
3
© C.L.Ringor

Human Population
underlying nearly all environmental problems is the
rapidly increasing human population

Botkin & Keller (2011)

https://ecowarriorprincess.net/2019/02/philippines-major-
4
problem-plastic-pollution-heres-what-theyre-doing-about-it/
 The Prophecy of
Malthus
In 1798, Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus stated the human
population problem in his writings “An Essay on the Principle
of Population”. Malthus based his argument on three simple
premises:

(1) Food is necessary for people to survive

(2) Passion between the sexes is necessary & will remain in its
present state — so children will continue to be born

(3) Power of population growth is infinitely greater than the

power of earth to produce subsistence

He argued that we are condemned by the tendency of

population to grow geometrically while food production would
increase only arithmetically. Unless birth rates were checked
or wars & disease raised the death rate, the world would face
inevitable famine & a subsistence standard of living.

Critics of Malthus continue to point out that his predictions

have yet to come true, technology has provided a way out,
allowing us to live at greater densities. Supporters of Malthus
respond by reminding them of the limits of a finite world.

Who is correct?
Image credit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus

World Population 2.1% in 1968

Growth, 1700-2100
The exponential increase of global population (13-fold over the course
of four centuries), has amplified humanity’s impact on the natural
environment. The greatest challenge our generation is facing is how to
provide space, food, & resources for a large population in a way that is
sustainable into the distant future. We should not make the mistake of
underestimating the task ahead of us. Although new generations
contribute, for now it is upon us to provide for them. Population
growth is still fast even if the annual growth rate is decreasing: it is
Population

projected that in the next 31 years, we will add 64.5 million people in
the world population every year. Even with a growth rate of 0.01%, 1.08 % in 2019
we will still reach 10.9 B in 2100.

Where do we go from here?

a te
Growth R
0.04% was the average
population growth rate
between 10,000 BCE &
1700

0.01%

Data sources: Our World in Data based on HYDE, UN, and UN Population Division (2019 Revision). This is a
visualization from OurWorldinData.org, where you find data and research on how the world is changing. Licensed under CC-BY by the author Max Roser

6
 Population
group of individual of the same species living in the same
area or interbreeding & sharing genetic information

Image credit: https://www.dreamstime.com/world-population-globe-populated-stylized-

human-figures-asia-d-rendering-world-population-globe-people-asia-china-
image140802572

Basic Concepts of
HIGH FERTILITY Population Dynamics
Population dynamics is a general study of how
population changes. Demographic transition is a
model that describes population change over time

Demography is the statistical study of human

populations, & people who study the human population
include demographers

Five key properties of any population are (1)

MEDIUM FERTILITY abundance, which is the size of a population; (2) birth

rates, (3) death rates, (3) growth rates, & (5) age
structure. How rapidly a population’s abundance
changes over time depends on its growth rate, which is
the difference between the birth rate & the death rate

Population size increases through births & immigration;

decreases through deaths & emigration

Key factor that determines the size of a human

population is the average number of children born to the
women in that population (total fertility rate)

LOW FERTILITY Human population can grow, decline, or remain fairly

stable

Botkin & Keller (2011); Miller & Spoolman (2016)

8
https://www.unfpa.org/SWOP-2018
Forecasting
1
Population
Change
We can write a formula to represent population
change in terms of actual numbers in a population
(Equation 1). However, sometimes it is difficult to get
data of the different parameters required in the
equation. We may use the exponential equation to
forecast population change (Equation 2). We can
apply this equation since we know that the
population grows by a constant percentage per
year.
2
We can also estimate the doubling time, which is
the time it takes for a population to double its
present size, using the equation

T = 70/r

where T is the doubling time & r is the annual

growth rate expressed as a percentage. For
example, the current annual growth rate of our
global population is about 1%. It will take 70 years
before the present population will reach twice its
size.

Botkin & Keller (2011)

9

Population Age
Structure
A more comprehensive approach in
forecasting human population would
take into account the effects of the
supply of food, water, & shelter; the
prevalence of diseases; & other factors
that can affect birth & death rates.
These factors have different effects on
different age groups, & so the next step
is to find a way to express how a
population is divided among ages. This
is known as the population age
structure, which is the proportion of
the population of each age group. The
age structure of a population affects
current & future birth rates, death rates, General types of population age structure. Data from 2019 United Nations, DESA, Population Division.
& growth rates & has an impact on the World Population Prospects 2019. Licensed under Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO.https://
environment. It also has implications for population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/ downloaded 30 Aug 2020.
current & future social & economic
conditions as different age groups have many young people & a high death rate elderly, e.g., USA. An inverted pyramid
different functions & needs. at each age—& therefore a high birth occurs when a population has more
rate, characteristic of a rapidly growing older than younger people, e.g., Japan.
population & also of a population with a A bulge occurs if some event in the past
Age structure has four general types: (1)
relatively short average lifetime, e.g., caused a high birth rate or death rate for
pyramid, (2) column, (3) inverted Philippines. A column shape occurs some age group but not others, e.g.,
pyramid (top-heavy), & (4) column where the birth rate & death rate are low Australia.
with a bulge. The pyramid age & a high percentage of the population is
structure occurs in a population that has
Botkin & Keller (2011)

10
 Demographic
Transition
It is a three-stage pattern of change in
birth rates & death rates that has
occurred during the process of industrial
& economic development of Western
nations, leading to a decline in
population growth.

Stage 1 is a decline in the death rate. In

a non-industrial country, birth rates &
death rates are high, & the growth rate
is low. With industrialization, health &
sanitation improve & the death rate
drops rapidly. The birth rate remains
high, however, & the population enters
Stage 2, a period with a high growth
rate. As education & the standard of
living increase & as family planning
methods become more widely used, the
population reaches Stage 3. The birth
rate drops toward the death rate, & the
growth rate declines, eventually to a low
or zero growth rate. However, the birth
rate declines only if families believe there
is a direct connection between future
economic well-being & funds spent on
the education & care of their young.
Theoretical demographic transition, including 4th & 5th stages that might take place in the future.
Advances in treating chronic health problems could bring about Stage 4, in which the birth rate would
remain the same while the death rate fell. Stage 5 would be achieved only when the birth rate declined
even further to match the decline in the death rate (Botkin & Keller, 2011).
Such families have few children & put all & even young children earn for the
their resources toward the education & family’s survival. Unless
well-being of those few. there is a change in attitude among
parents—unless they see more benefits
Historically, parents have preferred to from a few well-educated children than
have large families. Without other from many poorer children—nations
means of support, aging face a problem in making the transition
parents can depend on grown children from Stage 2 to Stage 3.
for a kind of “social security,”

Botkin & Keller (2011)

11

Demographic transition will take place only if parents

come to believe that having a small family is to their
Image credit: https://creazilla.com/nodes/7220-happy-
family-clipart
benefit. Scientific analysis can show the value of small
families, but this knowledge must become part of
cultural values to have an effect.

Botkin & Keller (2011)

12
Factors Affecting
Human Population Size
Factors Affecting Birth & Fertility
Rates

"
Importance of children as a part of the labor
force especially in less-developed countries.
Many children in such countries have to work for
wages to help their families survive

Cost of raising & educating children. Birth &

#
fertility rates tend to be lower in more-developed
countries, where raising children is much more
costly because they do not enter the labor force
until they are in their late teens or twenties

Availability of, or lack of, private & public

$
pension systems. Pensions reduce a couple’s
need to have several children to paid
employment outside the home. In less-
developed countries, a woman with no
education typically has two more children than
does a woman with a high school education.

Miller & Spoolman (2016)

13 https://rappler.com/bulletin-board/artists-against-child-labor-independence-day

Average age at marriage (or, more

%
precisely, the average age at which a
woman has her first child). Women
normally have fewer children when their
average age at marriage is 25 or older

Availability of, or lack of, reliable birth

control methods. Contraceptives allow
women to control the number & spacing of

&
their children. Birth & total fertility rates are
also affected by the availability of legal
abortions. According to WHO & the https://fortune.com/2019/11/08/companies-that-openly-support-abortion-access/
Guttmacher Institute, each year, more than
208 M women become pregnant & at least 40
M of them get abortions—about 20 M of them
legal & the other 20 M illegal (& often unsafe)

Religious beliefs, traditions, & cultural

' norms. In some countries, these factors favor

large families, as many people strongly
oppose abortion & some forms of birth control

Miller & Spoolman (2016)

14 https://time.com/5634762/northern-ireland-abortion-law-impact/
 Factors Affecting Death Rates

More people in some less-developed countries are

living longer & fewer infants are dying because of
larger food supplies, improvements in food
distribution, better nutrition, medical advances
such as immunizations & antibiotics, improved
sanitation, & safer water supplies.

(
Life expectancy: the average number of years a
person can expect to live. The population of many
of the richest countries in the world have life
expectancies of over 80 years. In 2019, the life
expectancy in Spain, Switzerland, Italy, & Australia
was over 83 years. In Japan, it was the highest
with close to 85 years. In the countries with the
worst health life expectancy is between 50 & 60
years. The population of the Central African
Republic has the lowest life expectancy in 2019
with 53 years. In the Philippines, the life
expectancy in 1938 was 40 years. By 2019, we
saw an increase to 71 years. Research indicates
that poverty, which reduces the average life span
by 7–10 years, is the single most important factor
affecting life expectancy.

https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy, downloaded 30 Aug 2020

Miller & Spoolman (2016)

15
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igorot_people

)
Infant mortality rate: the number of babies
out of every 1,000 born who die before their
first birthday. It is viewed as one of the best
6.61% measures of a society’s quality of life because
it reflects a country’s general level of nutrition
& health care. A high infant mortality rate
usually indicates insufficient food, poor
nutrition & a high incidence of infectious
disease. In areas with low infant mortality
rates, women tend to have fewer children
because fewer of their children die at an early
age.

Infant mortality rates in most countries have

declined dramatically since 1965. Even so,
every year more than 4 M infants (most of
them in less-developed countries) die of
preventable causes during their first year of
life. In 2017, 5.4 M children died. Pneumonia
is the most common cause of death, preterm
births & neonatal disorders is second, &
diarrheal diseases are third.
2.22%
In the Philippines, the infant mortality rate is
6.6% in 1960. In 2017, it decreased to 2.2%.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/infant-mortality downloaded 30 Aug 2020

Miller & Spoolman (2016)

16
 Migration Affects an Area’s
Population Size

*
Migration: the movement of people into
(immigration) & out (emigration) of specific
geographic areas. Most people migrate to
another area within their country or to another
country to seek jobs & economic improvement.
But many are also driven to migrate by
religious persecution, ethnic conflicts, political
oppression, or war. There are also
environmental refugees—people who have to
leave their homes & sometimes their countries
because of water or food shortages, soil
erosion, natural hazards, or some other form of
environmental degradation or depletion

Miller & Spoolman (2016)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/abuse-of-rohingya-muslims-in-burma-is-
17 ethnic-cleansing-rex-tillerson-says-2zck3ks7g

Human Population’s
Effects on the Earth
The danger that the human population poses to the
environment is the result of two factors: the number of
people & the environmental impact of each person.
People have affected the environment for a surprisingly
long time.

Botkin & Keller (2011)

https://ecowarriorprincess.net/2019/02/philippines-major-
18
problem-plastic-pollution-heres-what-theyre-doing-about-it/
 Case Study: Easter Island

The story of Easter Island has been used as an example

of how people may degrade the environment as they
grow in number, until eventually their overuse of the
environment results in the collapse of the society. This
story has been challenged by recent work. However, the
primary lesson is that limited resources can support only
a limited human population.

When Polynesian people first reached it about 800–1,500

years ago, they colonized a green island covered with
rich soils & forest. It took more than 1000 years for the
expanding population to deplete its resources. Loss of
the forest was irreversible: because it led to loss of soil,
new trees could not grow to replace the forests. As
resources grew scarcer, wars between the villages
became common, as did slavery, & perhaps even
cannibalism.

Like Easter Island, our planet Earth is isolated in the

universe & has limited resources. Its collapse is a
metaphor, a worst-case scenario, for what may lie ahead
of us in our own future. Of course, there are differences in
our situation today that are in our favor.

https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet-earth/easters-end
Botkin & Keller (2011)

19 Image credit: Robert Harding, National Geographic

Case Study: Mayan Civilization

The ancient Maya, whose early settlements date back to
about 2,000 BC, lived in present-day southern Mexico &
northern Central America. As a civilization, they are
recognized for their sophisticated calendar systems &
hieroglyphic writing as well as their achievements in areas
such as agriculture & architecture.

Around 250 AD, the Maya entered an era in which they

built flourishing cities with temples & palaces, &
population size peaked. However, by around 900 AD,
almost all of the major cities in what was then the heart of
Maya civilization—the southern lowlands region, in
present-day northern Guatemala & neighboring portions
of Mexico, Belize & Honduras—had been abandoned.
The collapse did not happen all at once; instead, it is
believed to have occurred over time from place to place.

Scholars have suggested a number of potential reasons

for the downfall of Maya civilization in the southern
lowlands, including overpopulation, environmental
degradation, warfare, shifting trade routes & extended
drought. However, the Mayans did not disappear in the
aftermath of the collapse. They built cities in the northern
lowlands region & in the highlands region where they
cleared more ancient rain forests for farm lands.

https://www.history.com/news/why-did-the-maya-abandon-their-cities

Image20
credit: Charles & Josette Lenars, National Geographic
 Total Impact of Human
Population on the
Environment

This three-factor model is a good

starting point in understanding the
total impact of human population on
the environment.

The environmental impact of

population on a given area depends
on three factors: population size (P)—
the number of people—, consumption
per person (A), & technological impact
per unit of consumption (T).

The impact per person varies widely,

A simple three-factor model of environmental impact of population in developing & developed
within the same nation & also among countries. Image credit: Miller (2003).
nations. The average impact of a
person who lives in a developed
so powerful that our effects on the standard of living & slowing overall
country is much greater than the
environment are even more global & human population growth. Improving
impact of a person who lives in a
significant. This could cause a the standard of living increases the
developing country. But even in a poor,
negative feedback—the more people, total environmental impact, countering
nation, the sheer number of people
the worse the environment; the worse the environmental benefits of a decline
leads to large-scale environmental
the environment, the fewer people. in population growth.
effects.
This simple three-factor model reveals
The problem now is that there are so
a great irony involving two
many people & our technologies are
humanitarian goals: improving the Botkin & Keller (2011)

21

Pandemics & World Population

Growth
Although outbreaks of the well-known traditional
epidemic diseases have declined greatly during the past
century in industrialized nations, there is now concern
that the incidence of pandemics may increase due to
several factors. One is that as the human population
grows, people live in new habitats, where previously
unknown diseases occur. Another is that strains of
disease organisms have developed resistance to
antibiotics & other modern methods of control.

A broader view of why diseases are likely to increase

comes from an ecological & evolutionary perspective.
The 7.7 B people on Earth constitute a great resource &
opportunity for other species; it is naive to think that
other species will not take advantage of this huge &
easily accessible host. From this perspective, the future
promises more diseases rather than fewer. This is a new
perspective.

Image credit: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/11/disease-caused-by-the- Botkin & Keller (2011)

novel-coronavirus-has-name-covid-19/
https://www.fda.gov/food/food-safety-during-emergencies/food-safety-and-coronavirus-
22
disease-2019-covid-19
 Tragedy of the
Commons
The population problem has no
technical solution; it requires a
fundamental extension in morality.
-Garrett Hardin

Tragedy of the commons is the depletion or

degradation of a potentially renewable resource to which
a large number of people have free & unmanaged
access. For example, the depletion of commercially
desirable fish species in the open ocean beyond areas
controlled by coastal countries; air & ocean pollution;
global warming. When a resource is shared, an
individual’s personal share of profit from its exploitation is
usually greater than his or her share of the resulting loss
(i.e., resource depletion or environmental degradation).
Individuals always act for his own benefit. In the short
run, everyone seems to gain, but in the long run,
everyone loses.

Complete freedom of action in a commons inevitably

brings ruin to all. The implication seems clear: without
some management or control, all natural resources
treated like a commons will inevitably be destroyed.

Hardin (1968)
Image credit: Jilson Tiu Greenpeace
https://www.greenpeace.org/philippines/press/1131/garbage-engulfing-manila-philippines-
23 after-severe-storm-highlights-plastic-and-climate-crises/
© CLRingor

The Human Carrying

Capacity of the Earth
Carrying capacity is the number of
individuals of a given species that can
be sustained indefinitely in a given
space (area or volume). In humans, it
is simply the number of people who
can live on earth at the same time.

What is the human carrying capacity

of the earth? The answer depends on
what quality of life people desire & are
willing to accept. Think about your
own needs at different stages of your
life. Think about how much resources
are required to sustain those needs &
think about where these resources are
coming from. Then multiply that by
7.7 B, the current human population.
Calculation of the human carrying
capacity of the Earth is complex due
to the great variety of resources that
humans take from the environment,
the great quantity of wastes they put
back & the range of their possible
technologies, institutions & lifestyles.
The “sigmoid growth form” curve & the carrying capacity. This curve describes the increase in human
population with finite resources. When a population reaches the upper limits of carrying capacity, it may
remain at this or decline (Pulselli & Coscieme, 2014; Odum, 1971)
Estimates vary significantly: from 2.5 - effect of increasing the Earth’s
40 B, with about 15 B as the upper carrying capacity for our species. The
limit with today’s technology. average life expectancy in most of the
world has been steadily rising, despite
Are there physical limits to human warnings that we are seriously
population growth on a finite planet? degrading Earth’s life-support system.
Some say “yes”. Others say “no”. They believe that we can avoid
serious damage to our life-support
Those who say “no” argue that systems by making technological
technological advances have allowed advances in areas such as food
us to overcome the environmental production & medicine, & by finding
limits that all populations of other substitutes for resources that we are
species face & that this has had the depleting.

Miller & Spoolman (2016)

24
 scientific underpinnings of the PB framework scientific understanding of ES functioning with sphere integrity—are recognized as “core” PBs

science.sciencemag.org/ on August 31, 2020

are updated and strengthened. the precautionary principle, the PB framework based on their fundamental importance for the
identifies levels of anthropogenic perturbations ES. The climate system is a manifestation of the
RATIONALE: The relatively stable, 11,700-year- below which the risk of destabilization of the amount, distribution, and net balance of energy
long Holocene epoch is the only state of the ES ES is likely to remain low—a “safe operating at Earth’s surface; the biosphere regulates ma-
terial and energy flows in the ES and increases
its resilience to abrupt and gradual change.
cooking; soil erosion, decline in
Anthropogenic perturbation levels of four of
the ESgroundwater supplies,
processes/features (climateclimate change
change, bio-
sphere&integrity,
many others.
biogeochemical flows, and land-
system change) exceed the proposed PB (see the
At some point, we could reach one or
figure).
more planetary
CONCLUSIONS: PBs areboundaries.
scientifically based
levelsExceeding such boundaries
of human perturbation could
of the ES beyond
whichlead to damaging
ES functioning maylong-term changes
be substantially
altered. Transgression
& the possibility of of
theaPBs thusdecline
sharp creates in
substantial risk of destabilizing the Holocene
the human population due to
state of the ES in which modern societies have
increasing
evolved. death rates.
The PB framework does not dictate
how societies should develop. These are po-
liticalIndecisions
addition tomust
that degrading
include our life-
considera-
tion ofsupport
the human system, we including
dimensions, failed toequity,
provide
not incorporated in the PB framework.
equitable & just access to resources. Never-
theless, by identifying a safe operating space
UN reported
for humanity that the
on Earth, in 2015, more than
PB framework
736 aMvaluable
can make peoplecontribution
lived below the
to decision-
makers international povertycourses
in charting desirable line (USD 1.90/
for socie-
The planetary boundary framework provides a science-based analysis of the risk that human
Current status
perturbations of the control
will destabilize variables
the Earth’s system for
atseven of the planetary
the planetary scale. Nineboundaries. The greenhave
planetary boundaries zone ▪
day) & around 10% of the world
tal development.
population is living in extreme poverty
beenisidentified.
the safe operating
Of these,space, the yellow
biosphere represents
integrity the zone &ofbiochemical
(genetic diversity) uncertainty flows
(increasing risk),
(P, N) are and the
already at
highred
risk.isImage
a high-risk zone.
credit: The et
Steffen planetary
al. 2015boundary itself lies at the intersection of the green and yellow & struggling to fulfill the most basic
zones. The control variables have been normalized for the zone of uncertainty; the center of the needs. How will we meet & sustain
figure therefore does not represent values of 0 for the control variables. The control variable shown
Those who say
for climate “yes”
change argue thatCO2 concentration.
is atmospheric caused by for
Processes drought or by a shortage
which global-level boundaries The list the basic
of author needs
affiliations of inthe
is available additional
the full article online. 2 B

sooner or later, we will reach the limits of energy for transporting

cannot yet be quantified are represented by gray wedges; these are atmospheric aerosol food;loading, people
*Corresponding projected
author. in 2050?
E-mail: will.steffen@anu.edu.au
Cite this article as W. Steffen et al., Science 347, 1259855
thatnovel
nature eventually
entities, imposesrole
and the functional on ofany desertification; dispersal of certain
biosphere integrity. (2015). DOI: 10.1126/science.1259855

population that exceeds or degrades pollutants, such as toxic metals, into No one knows how close we are to
its resource base. On
736 13 FEBRUARY 2015our finite
• VOL planet,
347 ISSUE 6223 waters & fisheries; disruption in the environmentalsciencemag.org
limits that some
SCIENCE

the human population will eventually supply of nonrenewable resources, analysts say eventually will reduce the
be limited by some factor or such as rare metals used in making size of the human population primarily
combination of factors. Some of steel alloys for transportation by sharply increasing the human
these are disruption of food machinery; decrease in the supply of death rate. We must confront this vital
distribution in a country, commonly firewood or other fuels for heating & scientific, political, economic, & ethical
issue.
Miller & Spoolman (2016)
25

Philippine Population
The Growth of Metro Manila (MM)
Satellite (Landsat) images taken in 1988 & 2014 clearly show
the expansion of built-up areas in MM & its neighboring
provinces of Cavite, Bulacan, & Laguna (built-up is shown in
gray; farmland & forest are light green). During the same period,
the population of MM increased by 5.2 M (7.5 M in 1988 & 12.7
M in 2014). As population grows, we have to build
infrastructures needed to live such as housing, transportation,
work places, schools, places of worship, hospitals, shopping
malls, business centers, recreational areas, market places,
telecommunications, etc. We have already encroached the La
Mesa Watershed protected area, the main source of drinking
water in MM.
Population data retrieved on 31 Aug 2020 from https://
www.macrotrends.net/cities/22109/manila/population

31 Jan 1988 7 Feb 2014

La Mesa
Watershed

© Jilson Tiu Greenpeace

https://www.greenpeace.org/philippines/press/1131/garbage-engulfing-manila-philippines-
26
https://landsat.visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=86780 after-severe-storm-highlights-plastic-and-climate-crises/
© CLRingor
How did the Philippine population change over time?
Total population
The Philippine population saw a rapid increase between 1950-2000, with a
doubling time of 25 years. Since then, the population growth slowed & is
projected to double in 75 years (under the medium variant). As of August
2015, the Philippine census reported a population of 100.98 M.
Population age structures show demographic transition from Stage 1 in 1950 to Stage 2 in 1990. Presently we are transitioning to Stage 3 & is forecasted to fully
transition by 2050.
27
Average annual number
Number of births/deaths (M)
of births & deaths
Between 1950-2000, the average annual number of births rose from 1 M to
2.4 M. Since then, it has declined to 2.2 M in 2019 & is projected to
decrease until 2100. The average annual number of deaths, however, is
increasing since 1950. After 2080, this number will exceed births & our total
population will drop.
Life expectancy at birth
Life expectancy at birth
(males & females)
(years)
Filipinos have been living longer since 1950 when people have life
expectancy at birth of about 56 years. Currently, our life expectancy is 71
years & is projected to be 82 years by 2100. Compared to our neighboring
countries, our life expectancy is higher compared from 1950-1975. But by
2008, it has become lower. This trend is projected to continue until 2100.
28
Average annual rate of
population change
The average annual growth rate declined from 3.5% (1950) to 1.4% ( 2019).
Compared with SE Asia & combined E & SE Asia regions, this rate is higher.
It is projected to continue to be higher until 2100.
Image credits: UN World Population Prospects 2019
Total Fertility
Live births per woman
As discussed, the key factor that determines the size of a human population
is the total fertility. It is declining since 1950 when live births per woman was
7.5. In 2019, it was about 2.5. The total fertility is higher than SE Asia & E &
SE Asia since 1950. It will be equal to these regions by 2060.
Mortality under age 5
Deaths under age 5 years
per 1000 live births
Deaths under age 5 years per 1,000 live births has been declining since
1950. We saw a sharp decrease from 140 deaths in 1950 to 40 in 2000. At
present, it is about 25. Comparing with other SE Asian countries, we have
much fewer deaths from 1950-1975. However, starting in 2012, it has
become slightly higher than our neighboring countries.
UN World Population Prospects 2019
Key Factors Affecting Philippine
Population Total Fertility

Under the medium variant projection, our population

will continue to increase until 2075. What are some of
the key factors that contribute to this growth?

♀
Total fertility (TF). 2014 data shows that the
TF in the Philippines is 3, which is higher than
Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, & Thailand
(Worldbank). Those living in rural areas has
higher, 3.5, TF than those who are in cities, 2.6.

+
Unplanned pregnancies. 2013 survey shows
that the preferred family size of urban women is
Regional comparison of total fertility. Data from Worldbank, 2014.
only 1.9 but the TF is 2.6; for rural women, it is
only 2.5 but the TF is 3.5 (NDHS).

,
Unmet need for family planning. 2013 data Average childbearing age. 2013 data shows
shows that 17.5% of Filipinas who do not wish that 10.1% of women aged 15-19 & 46.2% of

& to become pregnant are not using

contraceptives or practicing family planning;
44.9% percent of married women aged 15-49
women aged 20-24 have begun childbearing
(NDHS).

are currently not using contraceptives (NDHS).

29

Availability of, or lack of, opportunities for Life expectancy at birth & infant mortality.
women. 2013 data shows that 43.5% of
women aged 15-24 who have begun
( According to UN (2019), the life expectancy at
birth of Filipinos is increasing & mortality under

#
childbearing have no education. In contrast, age 5 is decreasing.
those have reached or finished college, have
lower percentage of childbearing (20.5%).
Additionally, most of these women belong to
poor households (see graph on the right)

Religious beliefs, traditions, & cultural

norms. Based on the 2010 census of NSO,
about 81% of Filipinos are Catholic. The
Catholic Church opposes the RH Bill

'
(Responsible Parenthood & Reproductive
Health Act of 2012), which guarantees
universal & free access to nearly all modern
contraceptives for all citizens. Also, our
culture dictates that we take care of our
parents in their old age (aside from the fact
that there is a lack of senior care services in
the Philippines), hence the more children, the
more caretakers.

Percentage distribution of women aged 15-24 who have begun

"
childbearing in relation to their educational attainment & economic status.
Importance of children as a part of the labor Data from NDHS, 2013.
force or a source of financial support. Do you
think this still applies to us?

30
 ELEVATION MAP

Environmental Limits to Population Elevation (meter

above sea level, masl)
Growth in the Philippines

The physical environment & geographic location of the

Philippines are some of the possible limiting factors to
population growth. One of these is land surface. The
Philippines is archipelagic with a total land area of 300,000
km2 (DENR), of which 41.7% (Worldbank) is allotted for
agricultural activities. This means we have roughly 60% of
land available for other uses, such as for residential,
commercial, & industry.

But not all land space is habitable within the limits of our
present technology. The islands, which are volcanic in origin,
are mostly mountainous (see Elevation Map). Most of these
mountain ranges have elevations of more than 500 masl. It
takes a lot of effort to build communities in highlands. Of
course, we may opt to build a conglomerate of cities like
Baguio, which sits at about 1,400 masl.

http://www.baguio.gov.ph/about-baguio-city
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.AGRI.ZS)

31 Image credit: Bureau of Soils & Water Management

SLOPE MAP
These mountains have also steep slopes (see Slope Map).
Some areas, especially the Cordillera & the Sierra Madre
mountains, have extensive land surface with slopes greater
than 50%. Imagine building a house on that land, let alone
establishing communities.

We also have to consider conservation & protected areas.

How much land area should we allocate to keep our forests
intact? Not only because of the ecological services they
provide, like regulating climate & preventing soil erosion,
but because it is our moral responsibility.

People do not only need a house to live. As population

grows, all the other needs should also increase. As
mentioned — transportation, work places, schools, places
of worship, hospitals, shopping malls, business centers,
recreational areas, market places, telecommunications, etc
— all these need a space to be built. In addition, population
growth will decrease the hectares of arable land for each
person. For example, in case of rice, production is
constrained by the fixed amount of available arable land but
rice consumption must increase steadily to feed the
growing population.

32 Image credit: Bureau of Soils & Water Management

 Another limiting factor is our exposure to natural hazards (see
map below) such as typhoons, heavy rains (because of
monsoon), earthquakes, & volcanic eruption. Each of these
hazards cascades into another hazard like floods, landslides,
Figure
& erosion. Even if we1.
can Location of citiesonbysteep
build communities population
mountain slopes, the risk for landslides & erosion is high.
33
orld Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision; Dilley et al. (2005)
r: The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of t
egal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted line represents approximately t
Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties. Final boundary between the Republi
th Sudan has not yet been determined. A dispute exists between the Governments of Argentina and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland concernin
ands (Malvinas). Sustaining the Philippine
Population
UN projects we will reach 155 M by 2075 before our
population will start to decline. In means adding 45 M to
our current population of about 110 M in a span of 50
years. Within that period, can we sustain this population
growth? To answer this is to know the carrying capacity
of our country.
We have discussed that the detection & estimation of
carrying capacity is a very complex issue. It does not
depend on fixed, static, or simple relations but on
variables such as rapidly changing technology,
preferences, structure of production, consumption, living
standards, degree of distributional equality, trade
extension, waste generation, resource availability,
policies, & so on. Add to this are the environmental
limits to growth that are inherent in the Philippines & the
global biophysical limits (planetary boundaries). We also
have to consider infectious disease outbreaks or
pandemics, such as what we are experiencing right now.
Do you think that the Philippine population is
sustainable?
34
Even if we can build tall residential buildings, the risk for
collapse due to earthquake is high. We have not even
considered sea level rise because of global warming.
sizeLocation
and level of exposure to natural disaster
of cities by population size & level of exposure to natural disaster.
The
Philippines has high exposure to disaster. Metro Manila was highly exposed to
typhoons, floods, earthquakes, landslide, & volcanic eruption & was exposed to
low risk of droughts (Gu, 2019).
Image credit: Gu (2019)
People as Resources
Humans can be assets & not as liabilities. They can help
solve environmental issues (which humans caused in the
first place). But we need resources for people to be
resources. We need to invest not only for their food,
clothing, & shelter but more so for their education,
training, & medical care. From the moment they were
conceived until the day they die, we should provide for
their needs for them to become human capital. Can we?
Sometimes, for a society to be sustainably developed, it
has nothing to do with the actual number of people, but
the values & abilities of individuals. For example, Japan’s
population (127.11 M in 2015) is larger than the
Philippines (100.98 M in 2015) but they have better
environmental condition & economic development.
7
People should have the freedom to produce as many
children as they want, but only if it does not reduce the
quality of other people’s lives now & in the future, either
by impairing the earth’s ability to sustain life or by
causing social disruption (Hardin, 1968). Limiting the
freedom of individuals to do anything they want in an
effort to protect the freedom of other individuals.
Summing Up
Population dynamics is a general study of how population The acceptable carrying capacity is not simply a scientific
changes. issue; it is an issue combining science & values.

Demographic transition is a model that describes population
change over time.
The human population growth rate is directly controlled by birth
& fertility rates, death rates, & migration.
It is important to consider the age structure of a human
population since it affects current & future birth rates (e.g.,
childbearing age), death rates (e.g., prevalence of diseases), &
has an impact on the environment. It also has implications for
current & future social & economic conditions as different age
groups have different functions & needs.
The Tragedy of the commons imply that renewable resources
that are freely available can be degraded.
The human population is often referred to as the underlying
environmental issue because much current environmental
damage results from the very high number of people on Earth
& their great power to change the environment in order to live &
to satisfy their wants & needs.
The maximum population Earth can sustain & how large a
population will ultimately be attained by human beings are
controversial questions
Although the average annual rate of population change is
declining from 1950-2019, the Philippine population saw a
rapid increase between 1950-2000. Since then, the population
growth slowed & is projected to stabilize in 2075 (under the
medium variant). As of August 2015, the Philippine census
reported a population of 100.98 M.
Some key factors affecting the Philippine population growth are
total fertility, unplanned pregnancies, unmet need for family
planning, average childbearing age, opportunities for women,
religious beliefs, traditions, cultural norms, life expectancy at
birth, infant mortality & children as potential financial support.
Some of the environmental limits to population growth in the
Philippines is the available land surface area & its attributes, as
well as exposure & vulnerability to natural hazards.

35

Study Questions

What controls the human Why is rapid human population

population growth rate? growth a global environmental
What is population dynamics?
problem?
Why is it important to consider the
What is demographic transition?
age structure of a human What does the tragedy of the
population? commons imply?

How did the Philippine population

How could you determine the
change over time?
carrying capacity of the earth? What are some of the
environmental limits to population
What are some of the key factors
How many people can earth growth in the Philippines?
affecting the Philippine
sustain?
population?

36
Learning Activities
Ecological Footprint
To know if we are living sustainably, we have to know our
ecological footprint. Ecological footprint is the amount of
biologically productive land and water needed to supply a
population with the renewable resources it uses and to absorb
or dispose of the wastes from such resource use. It is a
measure of the average environmental impact of populations in
different countries and areas.

Estimate your own ecological footprint by using this calculator

https://www.footprintcalculator.org/.

Is your ecological footprint larger or smaller than you thought it

would be, according to this estimate? Why do you think this is
so?

Even if each individual will reduce his/her ecological footprint,

unsustainable human population growth can overwhelm these
efforts. We do not only need smaller footprints, but fewer feet
as well. Do you agree? Why? Why not?

This activity is not compulsory but please take time to do it. It is

not only unexpectedly enlightening but fun as well.

37

Learning Activities
Reflection Paper
Write a reflection paper about this topic discussed in the
class & in this module. Write what you used to think about or
know, what you know now, and what you are not sure of or
what you want to learn more. Be specific.

This paper is worth 5 points and should be done

individually. Your answer should not exceed 300 words. Save
your file in pdf with this format SURNAME_Reflection
paper1.pdf. Submit in the designated dropbox in UVLE.

View at the back of IESM building, UP Diliman campus. Photo by CLRingor, 3

Aug 2021.

© CLRingor
38
References
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Earth as a Living Planet, 8th Ed. USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Gu, D. (2019). Exposure and vulnerability to natural disasters
for world's cities. United Nations Department of Economic and
Social Affairs, Population Division Technical Paper No.2019/4.
Hardin, G. (1968). The tragedy of the commons. Science,
162(3859):1243-1248. https://science.sciencemag.org/
content/162/3859/1243
Miller. G.T. (2003). Environmental Science: Working with the
Earth. Brooks/Cole Thomson Learning Inc, Canada.
Miller, G. T. & Spoolman, S. E. (2016). Environmental Science.
CENGAGE Learning.
NDHS, 2013. National Demographic & Heath Survey,
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national-demographic-and-health-survey-ndhs
Odum, E. P. (1971). Fundamentals of ecology. Philadelphia:
Saunders.
Pulselli, F. & Coscieme, L. (2014). Earth’s carrying capacity in
Michalos, A. C. ed., Encyclopedia of quality of life & well-being
research. Springer, Dordrecht.
39
Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E.,
Fetzer, I., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., et al. (2015). Planetary
boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing
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science.1259855
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https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/infant-mortality
https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/
https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet-earth/easters-end
https://www.history.com/news/why-did-the-maya-abandon-
their-cities
https://www.prb.org/how-demographic-changes-make-us-
more-vulnerable-to-pandemics-like-the-coronavirus/
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/the-
pandemic-is-not-a-natural-disaster
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locations=Z4